Nagle (OP)
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October 18, 2011, 08:24:02 AM |
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Take a look at all those black bars on Bitcoin Charts. ExchB's shutdown was the big news today, but several of the little guys have given it up recently as well. We're down to Mt. Gox, Tradehill, and Btc-E now.
Now look at the volumes in dollars. The standard 0.6% commission rate yields about $8000 per month for Mt. Gox, $810 per month for Tradehill, and $384 a month for Btc-E. And that's a maximum; many big traders get discounts.
Tradehill apparently has a real organization and staff, but revenue is comparable to a half-time job at McDonalds. That can't last. Btc-E, forget it. Mt. Gox has some business in other currencies, but the numbers aren't that big.
The end is in sight.
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zby
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October 18, 2011, 08:28:24 AM |
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MtGox has a trial in France - anyone can guess the costs? The office in Shibuya must also cost a lot - this is I think the most expensive district in Tokyo.
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SlaveInDebt
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October 18, 2011, 08:56:26 AM |
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Trade Hill @ $810 a month is full time at McDonalds. BTCe is at part time McDonalds employment.
I take it you make a modest living.
The end is some where.
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"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain." - Mark Twain
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ElectricMucus
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October 18, 2011, 09:28:13 AM |
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For all I care they could all shut down.
A decentralized exchange method will come up.
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kokjo
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You are WRONG!
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October 18, 2011, 09:31:32 AM |
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A decentralized exchange method will come up.
no not really. how do you decentralize the holding of USD or EUR? you can't. except for slow expensive wire transfers, or person-to-person. |
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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old_engineer
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October 18, 2011, 09:31:48 AM |
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Now look at the volumes in dollars. The standard 0.6% commission rate yields about $8000 per month for Mt. Gox, $810 per month for Tradehill, and $384 a month for Btc-E. And that's a maximum; many big traders get discounts.
Average volume for the past month looks like about $150k USD/day, which at 0.5% commission, is $750/day, or $22500 per month. Are you sure you were looking at volume in dollars, and not volume in bitcoins? $8000 per month / .006 = $1.3M per month, and they had $600k in currency volume yesterday alone. $22500 per month is enough to pay $5k for rent (it's a shared office), $5k for hosting fees, and a living wage for 3 people (I'm assuming they can pay employees equity for the rest). They could have easily paid cash all their hardware back when they were making $5,000 - $10,000 per day back in May/June/July. Sure looks to me like Bitcoin can support at least one exchange, even though it's no longer the heady days of June. And they could have easily taken $250k in investment money in June had they wanted to; I'm sure their phone rang with offers, and they had the choice whether to accept it or not. |
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ElectricMucus
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October 18, 2011, 09:38:27 AM |
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A decentralized exchange method will come up.
no not really. how do you decentralize the holding of USD or EUR? you can't. except for slow expensive wire transfers, or person-to-person. Ideally a web of trust cryptoheaven along with sovereign tribal entities based upon community (dark)nets replacing traditional nation-states. One can always dream  But anything along the lines some magnitudes less sophisticated would suffice. |
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nmat
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October 18, 2011, 09:40:14 AM |
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Average volume for the past month looks like about $150k USD/day, which at 0.5% commission, is $750/day, or $22500 per month. Are you sure you were looking at volume in dollars, and not volume in bitcoins? $8000 per month / .006 = $1.3M per month, and they had $600k in currency volume yesterday alone.
$22500 per month is enough to pay $5k for rent (it's a shared office), $5k for hosting fees, and a living wage for 3 people (I'm assuming they can pay employees equity for the rest). They could have easily paid cash all their hardware back when they were making $5,000 - $10,000 per day back in May/June/July.
Sure looks to me like Bitcoin can support at least one exchange, even though it's no longer the heady days of June. And they could have easily taken $250k in investment money in June had they wanted to; I'm sure their phone rang with offers, and they had the choice whether to accept it or not.
I believe you are correct, but we need to have more than one exchange. At least I like to have options. I often trade at CampBX for example and their volume is much lower (they are currently earning around $170 per month I think). |
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kokjo
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You are WRONG!
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October 18, 2011, 09:41:55 AM |
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A decentralized exchange method will come up.
no not really. how do you decentralize the holding of USD or EUR? you can't. except for slow expensive wire transfers, or person-to-person. Ideally a web of trust cryptoheaven along with sovereign tribal entities based upon community (dark)nets replacing traditional nation-states. One can always dream But anything along the lines some magnitudes less sophisticated would suffice. is'nt that what bitcoin, tor and freenet is? |
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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ElectricMucus
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October 18, 2011, 09:44:17 AM |
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A decentralized exchange method will come up.
no not really. how do you decentralize the holding of USD or EUR? you can't. except for slow expensive wire transfers, or person-to-person. Ideally a web of trust cryptoheaven along with sovereign tribal entities based upon community (dark)nets replacing traditional nation-states. One can always dream But anything along the lines some magnitudes less sophisticated would suffice. is'nt that what bitcoin, tor and freenet is? I'm talking about the physical layer here, the internet can be shut down, WLAN & optical direct joint access cannot. But that's still overshoot. Something like I like to sell 10 BTC and would like 30USD someone in my area want to do the opposite, the system provides a location & we meet. |
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kokjo
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You are WRONG!
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October 18, 2011, 09:46:15 AM |
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the internet can be shut down.
no it can not, a country can close all connections, from it self, but not shut the whole thing down. simply not possible. |
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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ElectricMucus
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October 18, 2011, 09:47:50 AM |
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the internet can be shut down.
no it can not, a country can close all connections, from it self, but not shut the whole thing down. simply not possible. Correction the last mile isps can be. The cronies would still have the datacenters and international fiber lines. Also the physical exchange of values can be buffered/delayed and managed by the system. Bin-packing algos and stuff. |
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old_engineer
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October 18, 2011, 10:01:39 AM |
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For all I care they could all shut down.
A decentralized exchange method will come up.
There's also a good chance bitcoin will be prohibited under US FINCEN rules, which would cause the whole thing to move underground. But rather than a decentralized techno-darknet, I think the replacement would be more like how drugs are distributed now, with a shadow distribution network. Wouldn't it be ironic if weed were regulated and taxed like alcohol, available for purchase in stores, but bitcoins were illegal and had to be bought in person? "Sorry honey, I'll be home late, I'm meeting up with my bitcoin dealer after work". |
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kokjo
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You are WRONG!
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October 18, 2011, 10:03:03 AM |
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For all I care they could all shut down.
A decentralized exchange method will come up.
There's also a good chance bitcoin will be prohibited under US FINCEN rules, which would cause the whole thing to move underground. But rather than a decentralized techno-darknet, I think the replacement would be more like how drugs are distributed now, with a shadow distribution network. Wouldn't it be ironic if weed were regulated and taxed like alcohol, available for purchase in stores, but bitcoins were illegal and had to be bought in person? "Sorry honey, I'll be home late, I'm meeting up with my bitcoin dealer after work". FUCK THE US. im from denmark, and mtgox is in japan. can't touch me! |
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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old_engineer
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October 18, 2011, 10:13:46 AM |
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FUCK THE US. im from denmark, and mtgox is in japan. can't touch me! About 1/3 of bitcoin hosts are in the USA: http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/countryHosts.htmlIf it happens, you'll be affected, albeit indirectly. Maybe we can get Occupy Wall Street to make Bitcoin legalization one of their demands.  |
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fivebells
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October 18, 2011, 10:30:57 AM |
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FUCK THE US. im from denmark, and mtgox is in japan. can't touch me! Your or Bin Laden. |
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cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
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October 18, 2011, 11:30:20 AM |
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For all I care they could all shut down.
A decentralized exchange method will come up.
There's also a good chance bitcoin will be prohibited under US FINCEN rules, which would cause the whole thing to move underground. But rather than a decentralized techno-darknet, I think the replacement would be more like how drugs are distributed now, with a shadow distribution network. Wouldn't it be ironic if weed were regulated and taxed like alcohol, available for purchase in stores, but bitcoins were illegal and had to be bought in person? "Sorry honey, I'll be home late, I'm meeting up with my bitcoin dealer after work". If I buy bitcoin with Euro in Japan, then how is FINCEN involved? |
Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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ElectricMucus
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October 18, 2011, 11:40:20 AM |
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Remember 2 things people: DCMA (well most probably weren't even intersted in 'this stuff' back then) and the US Patriot Act. Both have their equivalent all over Europe and the Asian industrialized nations heck even the whole world. Don't be that naive  |
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kokjo
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You are WRONG!
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October 18, 2011, 11:43:07 AM |
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Remember 2 things people: DCMA (well most probably weren't even intersted in 'this stuff' back then) and the US Patriot Act. Both have their equivalent all over Europe and the Asian industrialized nations heck even the whole world. Don't be that naive link to the EU Patriot Act, please? |
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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ElectricMucus
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October 18, 2011, 11:44:25 AM |
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Remember 2 things people: DCMA (well most probably weren't even intersted in 'this stuff' back then) and the US Patriot Act. Both have their equivalent all over Europe and the Asian industrialized nations heck even the whole world. Don't be that naive link to the EU Patriot Act, please? I don't know what it is called where you live, every nation has it's own implementation. |
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