I am predicting a spike above $3

[P4man]

wrong again.  i'm a speculator and i'm not speculating on what i expect other speculators will do.  i speculate on Bitcoin b/c of what i believe are the underlying fundamentals.

If you honestly think changes in underlying fundamentals explain even a tiny % of  the price swings in BTC exchanges, I can only LOL.

[1713572149]

1713572149

[cypherdoc]

wrong again.  i'm a speculator and i'm not speculating on what i expect other speculators will do.  i speculate on Bitcoin b/c of what i believe are the underlying fundamentals.

If you honestly think changes in underlying fundamentals explain even a tiny % of  the price swings in BTC exchanges, I can only LOL.

your lack of understanding how markets, speculation, and investing work are starting to betray you.

[P4man]

Touché. University never prepared me for this, I am indeed clueless to understand how bitcoinporn's revamped website caused a 100x increase in BTC exchange rates or what other "fundementals" caused the 90% drop over the last months. Since you seem to think its fundamentals driving these fluctuations, maybe you want to share your in depth knowledge with us?

[P4man]

I would not be so fast to discount the belief in the fundamentals of the Bitcoin economic plan. But I agree, price swings on a shorter time scale will tend to completely swamp out any trend based on those fundamentals. And that will remain the case until a.) the Bitcoin exchange market becomes correlated, or b.) the Bitcoin exchange market becomes large.

Absolute size has nothing to do with it. Look the oil market and other commodity markets. They are certainly big enough, but that doesnt prevent speculation from driving prices opposite of underlying fundamentals and create huge price swings. What matters is the % of pure speculation versus actual trade. In most commodity markets this used to be around 25% but over the past decades this has grown to 50-70% or more through derivative trading, with the known results of huge price swings in things like oil, corn, metals etc, which are more often than not uncorrelated with (expectations of) supply or demand. In bitcoin this ratio is like 99%.  

Bitcoin prices can only stabilize if trade becomes a bigger part of the bitcoin economy than the exchanges and bitcoinica's. As long as demand is primarily created by speculation, price is set by speculation; and so even if you wanted to accurately predict a future price, you simply have to look at the other speculators rather than the 1% that is (what I consider) the fundamentals.

[mjcmurfy]

wrong again.  i'm a speculator and i'm not speculating on what i expect other speculators will do.  i speculate on Bitcoin b/c of what i believe are the underlying fundamentals.

This is a ridiculous statement for any speculator to come out with, and highlights the level of delusional thinking I have come to expect from these people.

So you have never used a financial chart, or any form of technical analysis then? You don't consider support and resistance levels to be significant in your trading decisions? You don't look at trade volume or any other kind of financial metrics? You don't buy when you see large upward price movement or sell when you see large downward price movement? Did you sell any coin after the CosbyCoin incident or MtGox hack?

You must be a highly unique type of speculator, because all of these things directly reflect what other speculators are doing. Especially when it comes to the exchange rate of bitcoin, which is more directly associated with investor sentiment than any other speculative vehicle currently available. If you don't base your speculative decisions on what other speculators are doing, then why do you even bother visiting the speculation subforum?

What exactly is it you are basing your speculative decisions on then?
Lets hear it... this is going to be good.

[cypherdoc]

Touché. University never prepared me for this, I am indeed clueless to understand how bitcoinporn's revamped website caused a 100x increase in BTC exchange rates or what other "fundementals" caused the 90% drop over the last months. Since you seem to think its fundamentals driving these fluctuations, maybe you want to share your in depth knowledge with us?

i think we're just talking past each other.  the market price of Bitcoin encompasses its fundamentals, speculation, prudent investing, shorting, gambling, etc.  no sense trying to parse each component apart b/c its impossible.

either you see the underlying potentials of Bitcoin technology or you don't.  i never cease to be amazed at how two people look at the same thing but see it so differently.  thats all this is.

[ElectricMucus]

Well even if 99% of all speculators only watch each other 1% does look at the fundamentals and the 99% are looking on them too.  

[cypherdoc]

wrong again.  i'm a speculator and i'm not speculating on what i expect other speculators will do.  i speculate on Bitcoin b/c of what i believe are the underlying fundamentals.

This is a ridiculous statement for any speculator to come out with, and highlights the level of delusional thinking I have come to expect from these people.

So you have never used a financial chart, or any form of technical analysis then? You don't consider support and resistance levels to be significant in your trading decisions? You don't look at trade volume or any other kind of financial metrics? You don't buy when you see large upward price movement or sell when you see large downward price movement? Did you sell any coin after the CosbyCoin incident or MtGox hack?

You must be a highly unique type of speculator, because all of these things directly reflect what other speculators are doing. Especially when it comes to the exchange rate of bitcoin, which is more directly associated with investor sentiment than any other speculative vehicle currently available. If you don't base your speculative decisions on what other speculators are doing, then why do you even bother visiting the speculation subforum.

What exactly is it you basing your speculative decisions on then?
Lets hear it... this is going to be good.

don't make assumptions about my level of knowledge.  if you want an in depth look at what i do or don't know please visit my thread here which has an enormous following:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0

careful, it will take you a week to get through.

[mjcmurfy]

don't make assumptions about my level of knowledge.  if you want an in depth look at what i do or don't know please visit my thread here which has an enormous following:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0

I will make whatever assumptions I like, based on the things that you are saying and the points you are arguing. My post was in direct response to a statement that you made claiming that you "don't speculate on what other speculators will do". This is just bullshit, and you have been called out. Feel free to prove me wrong, the onus is on you to refute my assumptions, not on me to read through a week-long thread. I am still waiting for the answer to my previous question, so my assumptions will remain until you answer it, and will be reinforced if you fail to answer it adequately.

[cypherdoc]

don't make assumptions about my level of knowledge.  if you want an in depth look at what i do or don't know please visit my thread here which has an enormous following:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0

I will make whatever assumptions I like, based on the things that you are saying and the points you are arguing. My post was in direct response to a statement that you made claiming that you "don't speculate on what other speculators will do". This is just bullshit, and you have been called out. Feel free to prove me wrong, but I am still waiting for the answer to my previous question, so my assumptions will remain until otherwise proven.

how hard is it to respond to that question?  sometimes it pays to follow the speculators, sometimes not.  this is a personal judgment based on what each individual feels they know about the underlying technology.

you can choose to be a momentum follower for Bitcoin or not.  i can choose not to be and be a contrarian to the recent price fall.  if the price starts to ramp up again, then yes, i'll become a momentum follower as i believe the fundamentals of Bitcoin support a further price rise. 

stop acting like you're so smart.

[mjcmurfy]

how hard is it to respond to that question?  sometimes it pays to follow the speculators, sometimes not.  this is a personal judgment based on what each individual feels they know about the underlying technology.

you can choose to be a momentum follower for Bitcoin or not.  i can choose not to be and be a contrarian to the recent price fall.  if the price starts to ramp up again, then yes, i'll become a momentum follower as i believe the fundamentals of Bitcoin support a further price rise.  

stop acting like you're so smart.

cypherdoc: I don't speculate on what other speculators will do.
mjcmurfy: that's bullshit. what do you speculate on then?
cypherdoc: how can i possibly answer that? stop acting so smart.

It's quite easy. Just tell me what it is you are speculating on if you aren't speculating on metrics that are directly related to the decisions of other speculators? It's only difficult to answer if you were lying, or didn't fully understand what you were saying, and now realize that you cannot answer the question without invalidating your original statement.

Either way, this only highlights and reinforces the assumptions I already have.
So, keep trying, or else stfu.

[P4man]

stop acting like you're so smart.

That just made my day If only you could act as if you were smart.
Anyway, Ive made my point, unsubscribing and pulling out. Good luck with your lottery trading. Im sure your ability to discern trends and changes in fundamentals that simply arent there in a market as volatile as this, will make you rich beyond belief.

[fivebells]

if you want an in depth look at what i do or don't know please visit my thread here which has an enormous following:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0

Thanks for the pointer to this interesting post, which I had ignored until now because I'm mostly paying attention to bitcoin.  It sounds as though you were actually thinking about gold's potential, and had thoughtful, substantial arguments behind your assertions.  I wish your posts about bitcoin were as thoughtful and thought-provoking.

[cypherdoc]

how hard is it to respond to that question?  sometimes it pays to follow the speculators, sometimes not.  this is a personal judgment based on what each individual feels they know about the underlying technology.

you can choose to be a momentum follower for Bitcoin or not.  i can choose not to be and be a contrarian to the recent price fall.  if the price starts to ramp up again, then yes, i'll become a momentum follower as i believe the fundamentals of Bitcoin support a further price rise.  

stop acting like you're so smart.

cypherdoc: I don't speculate on what other speculators will do.
mjcmurfy: that's bullshit. what do you speculate on then?
cypherdoc: how can i possibly answer that? stop acting so smart.

It's quite easy. Just tell me what it is you are speculating on if you aren't speculating on metrics that are directly related to the decisions of other speculators? It's only difficult to answer if you were lying, or didn't fully understand what you were saying, and now realize that you cannot answer the question without invalidating your original statement.

Either way, this only highlights and reinforces the assumptions I already have.
So, keep trying, or else stfu.

ok, if you insist i'll trot out all the fundamental positives that many here on this forum have already elucidated a thousand times.  i speculate or invest in Bitcoin based on those fundamentals for the following reasons:

1.  the first sourcecode that prevents file copying while allowing public access.
2.  that same sourcecode that has created a blockchain of financial data that still exists 3 yr since its evolution and has resisted all forms of attack.
3.  a stable rate of inflation thats diminishes with time and eventually goes to zero.
4.  a protocol which could eventually be used as a currency if a Bitcoin is perceived as a stable store of value.
5.  a dedicated group of devs that work for free in supporting and advancing the innovations of this same code.
6.  a continuous appearance of new technologies and implementations surrounding Bitcoin.  i won't bother to list them all b/c there's alot.
7.  a sourcecode that could be used as a different form of gold standard for the USD.  that is, a fixed supply commodity/currency whatever you want to call it, that the existing USD fractional reserve system could be upon in a rigid 10:1 ratio.  PM's IMO are too difficult to fulfill that role.  this one will generate all sorts of howls i'm sure but this is how i see best Bitcoin being used.
8.  the fact that i think the Bears on this forum are wrong
9.  that fact that i do have Libertarian tendencies and wish to express that outlook by supporting at technology that will hopefully change the system for the better.
10. i believe in open source projects and the many examples of how well these have played out the last 10 years.

howl away.

[cypherdoc]

if you want an in depth look at what i do or don't know please visit my thread here which has an enormous following:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0

Thanks for the pointer to this interesting post, which I had ignored until now because I'm mostly paying attention to bitcoin.  It sounds as though you were actually thinking about gold's potential, and had thoughtful, substantial arguments behind your assertions.  I wish your posts about bitcoin were as thoughtful and thought-provoking.

keep going through the thread. we do debate Bitcoin as well.

this Spec forum is the Wild West.  it's hard to maintain and put the time in needed for in depth thoughtful posts here when there are so many crazies hanging around.

[cypherdoc]

if you want an in depth look at what i do or don't know please visit my thread here which has an enormous following:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0

Thanks for the pointer to this interesting post, which I had ignored until now because I'm mostly paying attention to bitcoin.  It sounds as though you were actually thinking about gold's potential, and had thoughtful, substantial arguments behind your assertions.  I wish your posts about bitcoin were as thoughtful and thought-provoking.

that thread encompasses not just gold btw.  its an incredibly in depth debate primarily btwn miscreanity and i about world economics, deflation vs inflation, investing, technical vs fundamental analysis, etc.  miscreanity knows way more than most of these clowns here too.  thats my baby and i've poured my heart into it while taking my time to post thoughtfully and with care. and i've have made some pretty damn good calls if i may so which is why its got so many views i think.

edit:  this board here.  yeah, they're right, its for children and i've never said i didn't have some of those tendencies.

[mjcmurfy]

Nobody is disputing your enthusiasm for bitcoin, it is admirable. I have already read some of your thread on Gold over the previous weeks, and I know that you are not a run of the mill lemming like so many of the others.

You clearly know what you are talking about when it comes to gold, but that is the crux. Bitcoin is not like any existing currency, commodity, equity or any financial instrument currently in existence, so the traditional ways of viewing these things have to be called into question.

You cannot rationally be a investing in the bitcoin market and basing decisions on fundamentals alone, because there is very little change in fundamental economic indicators. As others have said, 99% of the speculation that is going on is speculation on the speculation of others. It has no grounding in the growth of the real bitcoin economy, and actually discourages adoption of bitcoin by new merchants, thus ultimately dooming your own investment.

The level of speculation we are seeing is completely irrational until the bitcoin economy is able to post figures that can, at least somewhat, back up the wild delusions of these zero-sum cowboys.

[2112]

1.  the first sourcecode that prevents file copying while allowing public access.

I'm curious. What does the above sentence mean? Anyone?

[P4man]

1.  the first sourcecode that prevents file copying while allowing public access.

I'm curious. What does the above sentence mean? Anyone?

Ill bite.
Bitcoin source code is changed first on Gavin's computer, preventing copying but when he commits new code to github, it allows public access.  Its one of bitcoin's underlying fundamentals that changes every night, as the sourcecode is updated, thereby influencing BTC exchange rate.  Smart investors use that data to calculate and predict price swings.

See, that wasnt so hard?

 

[cypherdoc]

Nobody is disputing your enthusiasm for bitcoin, it is admirable. I have already read some of your thread on Gold over the previous weeks, and I know that you are not a run of the mill lemming like so many of the others.

You clearly know what you are talking about when it comes to gold, but that is the crux. Bitcoin is not like any existing currency, commodity, equity or any financial instrument currently in existence, so the traditional ways of viewing these things have to be called into question.

this is very true.  and if you have read my stuff on the gold thread you realize i don't view things traditionally too often. i prefer to think for myself acknowledging full heartedly that i could be incorrect.   but i just see too many similarities to gold in Bitcoin and i see the potential for a nexus btwn the power of the internet and a solution to our financial system problems. 

You cannot rationally be a investing in the bitcoin market and basing decisions on fundamentals alone, because there is very little change in fundamental economic indicators. As others have said, 99% of the speculation that is going on is speculation on the speculation of others. It has no grounding in the growth of the real bitcoin economy, and actually discourages adoption of bitcoin by new merchants, thus ultimately dooming your own investment.

you're right.  whatever you want to call it; speculating or investing i don't care.  lets just say i'm putting USD's into what i consider an undervalued asset that has the potential to become a competing worldwide currency to gold and other fiat.  call me foolish.  thats ok.  i'm sure Jobs and Wozniak were considered foolish when they started up in a garage and after several years when they had 1% market share next to Microsoft.  even i thought they were dead.

The level of speculation we are seeing is completely irrational until the bitcoin economy is able to post figures that can, at least somewhat, back up the wild delusions of these zero-sum cowboys.

its only irrational if you can predict the future and Bitcoin ends up destroyed.  none of us know for sure.  i just like the odds from what i see.