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Author Topic: Banned dude projects Bitcoin bounce maybe to $10k, then renewed decline to $4600  (Read 729 times)
btcbug
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August 19, 2018, 03:52:04 PM
 #21

Very interesting stuff guys. I see Shelby edited his Steemit post and he now considers two alternative possibilities:

1. Bottoming now with new ATHs in 2019. That was his original idea of a possible repeat of the mid-2013 correction. In this case altcoins would not crater.

2. Down to $4600ish now, followed by either #1 above or his other scenario.

Note he apparently made those edits before @infofront’s tantalizing post in this thread.

Do not believe in such articles. Although the article is written good and arguments are given with facts and numbers but that does not mean that altcoins will be down to zero in 2019. That's not gonna happen.

He states in the post that the altcoins going to near 0 in 2019 is contingent on the scenario of the bottom not coming until late 2019 or early 2020. In that case, altcoins would continue to decline more than Bitcoin, on every renewed decline of Bitcoin. Altcoins have lost so much ground relative to BTC since the peak in 2017. That would continue if the bottom will not be until more than a year from now.

Whereas, if @infofront’s scenario is the outcome which Shelby also mentioned as the alternative scenario in his post, then altcoins would rise also. Whether altcoins would rise more than BTC and regain their lost ground is not certain. He offered the declining spreads model as a reason they may not, but he also questions that declining spread model as possibly being a backward looking metric.

However, I think he is implying that even if the ATH is coming in 2019 then in that scenario we are not currently in a 2014/15 cryptowinter, and that most altcoins will be a wasteland in the next crypto winter that follows the 2019 ATH. Again refer to @infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart to visualize that alternative scenario.



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August 19, 2018, 03:59:52 PM
 #22

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

There was one point in time where NXT was at it's lowest of bear markets and I noticed I could short it to zero using only something like 6 BTC for the hell of it (I forget if NXT even had leverage enabled - probably not but I think it did).  Even though it would be an incredibly stupid idea, I almost did it anyway.  That's probably the closest you'll get to an altcoin reaching 0 until bitcoin itself dies from people noticing a combination of being designed to centralize and non-fungible makes it the ultimate new world order slavery system.
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August 19, 2018, 04:27:31 PM
 #23

Whereas, if @infofront’s scenario is the outcome which Shelby also mentioned as the alternative scenario in his post, then altcoins would rise also. Whether altcoins would rise more than BTC and regain their lost ground is not certain. He offered the declining spreads model as a reason they may not, but he also questions that declining spread model as possibly being a backward looking metric.

However, I think he is implying that even if the ATH is coming in 2019 then in that scenario we are not currently in a 2014/15 cryptowinter, and that most altcoins will be a wasteland in the next crypto winter that follows the 2019 ATH. Again refer to @infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart to visualize that alternative scenario.


Alts will be "wasteland" after reaching way higher levels as are right now. If Bitcoin goes to $100k+ next year, just like it went to new ATH at the end of 2014, that will push all alts way higher as they were 8 months ago and the Bitcoin bottom that will follow in 2020-2022 will be way over $20k. So also altcoins will be higher as was 8 months ago.    This is basically most optimistic prediction I heard. Well not really. I heard many bullshit. But a most optimistic prediction that on my opinion may even happen.


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August 19, 2018, 05:05:56 PM
 #24

That's probably the closest you'll get to an altcoin reaching 0 until bitcoin itself dies from people noticing a combination of being designed to centralize and non-fungible makes it the ultimate new world order slavery system.

I see Shelby responded to you at the bottom of his post:

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-heavyd-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019-20180819t141422240z
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August 19, 2018, 06:33:13 PM
 #25

@infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart

I'd just like to make it clear that it's not actually my chart. It's from a guy on twitter.  Wink
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August 19, 2018, 06:44:37 PM
 #26

@infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart

I'd just like to make it clear that it's not actually my chart. It's from a guy on twitter.  Wink


Yes, well you get credit for distribution!  Cheesy
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August 20, 2018, 08:47:04 AM
 #27

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019-20180818t094501515z

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

Any thoughts? (not about him but the logic and data for the projections)
The market is about to resume another bullish trend and the sideways trend is about to be over.  Bitcoin is not going to have a bad day to the extent of falling to $4,600. I expect the $5500 to be the bottom except something very significant happen to the market.

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August 20, 2018, 06:06:14 PM
 #28

If Bitcoin goes to $100k+ next year

Shelby apparently thinks the highest will be $32k and he discovered that @infofront’s chart incorrectly labeled the position of the start of the first wave of cycle #1:

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever

https://medium.com/@shelby_78386/most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-9bea6a4a5fdb
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August 20, 2018, 09:48:10 PM
 #29

Very interesting stuff guys. I see Shelby edited his Steemit post and he now considers two alternative possibilities:

1. Bottoming now with new ATHs in 2019. That was his original idea of a possible repeat of the mid-2013 correction. In this case altcoins would not crater.

2. Down to $4600ish now, followed by either #1 above or his other scenario.

Note he apparently made those edits before @infofront’s tantalizing post in this thread.

Do not believe in such articles. Although the article is written good and arguments are given with facts and numbers but that does not mean that altcoins will be down to zero in 2019. That's not gonna happen.

He states in the post that the altcoins going to near 0 in 2019 is contingent on the scenario of the bottom not coming until late 2019 or early 2020. In that case, altcoins would continue to decline more than Bitcoin, on every renewed decline of Bitcoin. Altcoins have lost so much ground relative to BTC since the peak in 2017. That would continue if the bottom will not be until more than a year from now.

Whereas, if @infofront’s scenario is the outcome which Shelby also mentioned as the alternative scenario in his post, then altcoins would rise also. Whether altcoins would rise more than BTC and regain their lost ground is not certain. He offered the declining spreads model as a reason they may not, but he also questions that declining spread model as possibly being a backward looking metric.

However, I think he is implying that even if the ATH is coming in 2019 then in that scenario we are not currently in a 2014/15 cryptowinter, and that most altcoins will be a wasteland in the next crypto winter that follows the 2019 ATH. Again refer to @infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart to visualize that alternative scenario.





This is one of the most legit forecasts I've seen. There have been too many blind " 100k by 2k20!!!" forecasts that I stopped taking them seriously.

I've seen a few analyses that take into account the depreciation until the next halvening, but is bitcoin really going to gain after that? There are a lot of assumptions in this chart, namely that the cycle follows that same pattern, and more importantly that introduction of financial market tools like futures, ETFs and being considered for a major stock exchange don't have any impact on it. Statistics rarely lie though...
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August 23, 2018, 08:53:04 PM
 #30

He's already been right about the alt bear market. They don't need to go down any more to prove his point from months ago, that they were going down, hard. Most will indeed go to 0, but some are probably due for a bounce...
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August 26, 2018, 07:24:01 AM
 #31

There are many people who believe in this view. After seeing 10K, a big drop is expected again. If such a thing really happens, a lot of people including myself will be tired of Bitcoin's investment. I hope this expectation goes away.
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September 06, 2018, 03:01:28 PM
 #32

If Bitcoin goes to $100k+ next year

Shelby apparently thinks the highest will be $32k and he discovered that @infofront’s chart incorrectly labeled the position of the start of the first wave of cycle #1:

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever

https://medium.com/@shelby_78386/most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-9bea6a4a5fdb

Shelby updated that analysis linked above.
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September 07, 2018, 01:46:04 AM
 #33

@Traxo. How reliable would your analysis be if it was compared to a real trader's analysis, like Tom Lee's $20,000 by the end of 2018 prediction?

We have witnessed many random people come and try but not one of them has predicted the market reliably.

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September 07, 2018, 01:46:33 AM
 #34

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

I dare anyone believing altcoins to become near worthless to short them, because instead of altcoins going to zero, your balance will go to zero.

We are dealing with people not caring about fundamentals, decentralization, currency aspect, etc. It all contributes to a situation where even the worst altcoins are worth billions which is pathetic but the damage is done already. It's impossible to bet against altcoins long term speaking because you are really going to burn yourself. Altcoin's get fueled by Bitcoin's increases and as long as Bitcoin keeps increasing, which it keeps doing, altcoins will follow.
Yeah altcoins are not going to disappear, I will agree that many of those coins are not necessary and do have a value of zero but people love to speculate with them because they cannot move the price of bitcoin the way they can move the price of altcoins, so altcoins become a way to earn money and nothing more so it doesn't matter if the coins are useless.
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September 12, 2018, 05:27:26 PM
 #35

@Traxo. How reliable would your analysis be if it was compared to a real trader's analysis, like Tom Lee's $20,000 by the end of 2018 prediction?

We have witnessed many random people come and try but not one of them has predicted the market reliably.

Two instances where he predicted the future. Silver at $26 to $45 then back below $26 several months before it happened:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html


Bitcoin at $600 when everyone was pessimistic right as it began its moonshot to $19666 (and when @realr0ach sold BTC for silver lol):

https://steemit.com/money/@anonymint/speculation-rule-buy-when-others-are-irrationally-pessimistic-cautious
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1663070.0


Shelby has relayed to me in private chat, that Bitcoin is preparing to start its assault on $32,000! Probably start moving up significantly before the end of 2018. The chance of declining to $3000 has diminished to nearly ~0.

Note that Bitcoin’s current correction is likely a false move down, with the extension to $32,000 to continue into 2019 before the next crypto-winter begins in earnest. Next crypto-winter will bottom in 2021 at roughly just below $10,000. By end of the next decade, Bitcoin will be over $500,000.

Shelby was also vindicated yesterday for his long-standing prediction about the demise of unregulated ICOs.


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September 12, 2018, 07:58:27 PM
 #36

Does he still think we could see a blow off top near 40-50k?
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September 12, 2018, 08:35:30 PM
 #37

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

Well, when he talks close to zero, this can be possible with many altcoins and as he does not specifically say what altcoins are that can fall to zero, then it seems that he is right, but in fact this is something that any person must have noticed. I think that doing this kind of comment in a time like this is not a good thing, because it only creates more unnecessary panic. Many altcoins are falling because people are selling to buy bitcoin and the reason is probably because of September 30th.

Does he still think we could see a blow off top near 40-50k?

It will be very difficult to reach these prices



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September 12, 2018, 11:51:20 PM
 #38

$4600 would prove wrong the theory that Bitcoin cannot go below $5500-ish, which is the guesstimated cost of mining one bitcoin that I've heard lately. So far it seems to be working. Every time it breaks below $6k it gets a huge buy that creates big candle of up to $400+.

This doesn't guarantee anything but it's another resistance to considering given past precedence.

As far as all altcoins going near zero... I am not sure the market as a whole is mature enough to realize how most altcoins are shitcoins and they just should be holding as much BTC as possible on their portfolios. So when the next hype for crypto comes, I still expect another altcoin bubble.
Aren't all theories put in a false hope? Literally people are making up excuses and reasons to dump crypto.

Why does it suddenly feel like crypto is all of a sudden just become dead? Is it only me?

Support is doing good at trying to help bitcoin be a little stable, but won't last for long,people are panicking too much, after all 9 months of continuous bear season doesn't give out a great feeling to anybody. So 4600$ is possible, but unlikely.


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thejaytiesto
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September 14, 2018, 03:31:21 AM
 #39

The other day it was 9 11 and it made me think about it again...

I saw anonymint has made some posts on this subject. I have seen good arguments on both sides, with research by engineers etc. I can't still really decide. I remain open minded. But some things are really interesting... just like how Lucky Silverstein didn't show up there that morning because he had an appointment with a dermatologist and neither did family members that worked there apparently and he made like billions out of the disaster...

Deep down I refuse a bit that so much evil can exist. When it happened I was a kid and became a bit traumatized.

And its not just some barbaric primitive thing, the fact that its a very intricate series of events and planning makes it even more fucked up.

Anyway, big off-topic because fuck it, its the speculation section.

On the price itself.. let's say BTC hits $500k+ by around 2030 and we are all rich. Which countries will be safe places to stay? no point in having money if your country is or about to become flushed. I think it would be interesting to talk about that and plan ahead.
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September 14, 2018, 05:43:32 AM
 #40

Why does it suddenly feel like crypto is all of a sudden just become dead? Is it only me?

This is just the recent inflow of people, who have no context.   Its the holdings that very shortterm buyers unwind that leads to the action they fear.  As well as that population of people there are also long term users of bitcoin who are aware that 2017 was not a normal market layout for price accumulation.   In the end the two extremes in sentiment will balance out to even this period, it could be 9 months is not that long at all but I think the speed of change will slow anyhow

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