Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

[iamnotback]

At the low of an investment, everyone is pessimistic and vowing to never "buy that shit". They panic or attrition capitulate to go massively short and sell irrationally.

This also seems to be the case on the way back up, especially a frustrating, meandering slow rise (after that $10 to $1000 moonshot in 2013 which is what everyone is lusting for), as pessimism causes people to find any excuse to give as to why "that shit still isn't ready for prime time":

Consider all the flaws in bitcoin at protocol level.

Bitcoin does not scale!
Bitcoin is not anonymous!
Bitcoin is a privacy risk!
Bitcoin is too slow for real world applications!
Bitcoin does not allow much more than just fake fantasy money unlike many smart dynamic blockchains!
Bitcoin is mostly owned and controlled by a hand full of people!
Bitcoin makes you suspect of illegal activities!

With few exceptions, the same can be said about fiat currencies.

Several crypto investors have complained to me about the (miners) wrangling over Blockstream's changes to Bitcoin, and even the potential technical clusterfuck of Lightning Networks.

This to me is indicative of the time to buy with both fists. As I wrote:

Classic triangle pattern forming if you look back at the last big august correction. Then we had another correction, a weaker one, and now, another weaker one. Increasingly weaker corrections with an overall uprising price: breakout incoming. Last chance for the idiots still doubting to buy to get in now or never.

r0ach or anyone, do you have any analysis you can share on the likely direction of the BTC price between now and December?

I had written in your blog last month that this looks like a pause on the way for probably all time highs, given a cpu&handle at $700 [actually high $700s]. What are you seeing in your current analysis?

Don't worry about whether Bitcoin is perfected yet. It is just time for it to go back to ATHs because there are finally major upgrades on the way. Buy rumor, then sell the news. Meaning you are buying the fact that crypto is progressing and not sell because of the realization it isn't perfect yet. The problems of crypto will get worked out over time via competition from altcoins and Bitcoin. Right now, the smart (early mover) money is selling altcoins to buy Bitcoin in anticipation of the big move up which appears to probably be finally upon us.

Then at ATHs next year, they will be selling BTC to buy into altcoins for the next wave of 10 - 100X gains on the serious altcoins.

Learn how the smart money is getting rich in crypto (trading between BTC and altcoins, and buying serious altcoin ICOs and holding for the 10X price rise). You need to first toss out your emotions and learn to think rationally.


Also on the macroeconomic front, the USA election (ditto BREXIT and Duterte's election in the Philippines) is destabilizing the world (regardless who wins, but a Trump victory is very likely for those read Drudge Report on polls and not the liar MSM). And Europe is nearing the end of its rope to "pretend and extend" on its horrific debt crisis (actually socialism/welfare/ideological clusterfuck). Martin Armstrong's correct theme has been the dollar as the reserve currency (and other highly liquid safe havens, e.g. Bitcoin and perhaps not gold) would rise as the world descended into the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Gold will likely rise more later as a hedge against government, when liquidity has been forsaken for survival. First the world moves to liquidity, later to panic.

The dollar has been rising against every fiat currency since roughly 2013 and in many cases since 2011 when gold peaked.

So far I haven't seen that a strong dollar is anti-correlated to BTC price, although afaik we do see that anti-correlation with gold.

[spazzdla]

http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/29255-be-fearful-when-others-are-greedy-and-greedy-when-others

You're not the only one that agrees .

[qwik2learn]

Excuse me, but if you are so smart, and you know so much about the present sentiment, would you please tell me whether I should buy or sell this pair right now if I am trying to exit my position before the forex market closes this week?

Month:

Week:

Day:

Intraday:



Thank you!

[iamnotback]

I have blogged the OP:

https://steemit.com/money/@anonymint/speculation-rule-buy-when-others-are-irrationally-pessimistic-cautious

[pooya87]

good post, i liked it.
i totally agree with the main idea of it an actually i was talking about it with someone the other day, that you should always buy when everything is calm and everybody is desperate. that is the time when price is at the lowest (with the exception of weird unexpected stuff like bitfinex hack and the drop).
and if you buy then you can make the biggest profit.

[iamnotback]

that is the time when price is at the lowest (with the exception of weird unexpected stuff like bitfinex hack and the drop).

The Bitfinex hack overreaction was another buying opportunity.

[zby]

On the other hand remember that the markets can be irrational longer then you can stay solvent and that this irrationality happens in both ways.

I tend to follow the advice from Soros - "When I see a bubble forming I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire. That is not irrational."

[iamnotback]

On the other hand remember that the markets can be irrational longer then you can stay solvent and that this irrationality happens in both ways.

I tend to follow the advice from Soros - "When I see a bubble forming I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire. That is not irrational."

How is a 30 degree upward slope for the past 1.25 years irrational?

The bubble ensues next and it curves up higher slope to rocket to ATHs after surpassing the cup & handle at $800ish.

We may get some resistance at $800 and so maybe not until next year for the ATHs. I am nearly certain we will push to high $700s before Xmas.

Remember Bitcoin is another way for wealthy Chinese to get their money out of their debt crisis and country. A liquid diversification.

See any familiarity with the above chart and the typical one for new investments:

[zby]

How is a 30 degree upward slope for the past 1.25 years irrational?

Do you know that degrees are meaningless on charts where the x axis is incommensurable with the y axis?

[iamnotback]

How is a 30 degree upward slope for the past 1.25 years irrational?

Do you know that degrees are meaningless on charts where the x axis is incommensurable with the y axis?

True the quantification of the slope is arbitrary, but did you know that not being able to extract salient information is a either a sign of being an ego offended Millennials smartass, poor reasoning, and/or lack of pragmatic social skills?  



A consistent non-downward slope for 1.25 years is not meaningless, which is obviously the point. I wasn't writing the post for consumption only by physicists and mathematicians.

Note to be more mathematically accurate, I will acknowledge that even "consistent" is arbitrary, because we could choose a logarithmically scaled y-axis instead. Yet then we can even get into the fact that we are looking a chart not weighted by volume, that the wealth effect is illusory, and that expectations are all that matter, etc, etc, etc..

In other words, if you don't like bullshit, then don't speculate. Stick to mathematics, which btw has its foundation in arbitrary bullshit axioms (so what if the system is internally consistent ... just like my navel). You see our entire existence is arbitrary. Now it mathematically must be... do you know why? Do you understand why the speed-of-light must be arbitrarily quantifiable else nothing could exist?

[iamnotback]

THE RALLY CONTINUES !!!!!!!!!!

As I told you it would on Sept 3.

I'm still waiting for the collapse of 2015.75

Are you blind? It is already in full effect. What the fuck is happening in Europe due to what the fuck happened in Syria due to what the fuck what Hillary Clinton fucking up in the Middle East due to what the fuck day did Putin enter Syria officially (hint: Oct 1, 2015).

More education for your blindness here.

Listen, you're delusional

Maybe you are too. Compile your well researched facts, because afaics, you've documented nothing. It is your ideology only, i.e. prone to delusion. Enjoy it.

In case some of you foreigners haven't heard yet, our FBI director is re-opening the investigation of Hillary again as of this afternoon and the left is freaking out! Dear October...Surprise!

She's finished. Lower level FBI agents that were furious that their director played the coverup artist back in July, are investigating Hillary's aide's husband for interstate trafficking of sexual pics w/ a 15 yr old girl and this is where the new info is coming from - potential classified info on Weiner's server. There's something big going on and the FBI director's hand is being forced by his agents that will blow the lid if he doesn't act outright as he's perceived to be doing today. Trump's stock is rising heavily and dems are in freakout mode.

Wikileaks promises to release emails which send her to jail:

Rothschilds family controls Wikileaks and is choosing the next Prez of the USA or is forcing Obama+Clinton to declare war on Russia:

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/breaking-julian-assange-next-leak-will-lead-arrest-hillary-clinton/

Oct. 28 timing:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/did-something-happen-of-the-ecm-turning-point/

[iamnotback]

Poloniex is getting slammed. The pages will only load sometimes. Panic altcoin selling, BTC buying.

I tried to tell you all to buy at $660, because I could sense it was getting ready to break out over $700.

Next stop is high $700s ($800ish) at the cup & handle, which is what I predicted on Sept 3. It was the only prediction I made. I am not cherry picking from several statements I made.

[1Referee]

Poloniex is getting slammed. The pages will only load sometimes. Panic altcoin selling, BTC buying.

I actually find it funny how all the altcoin lovers that preach against Bitcoin being slow and not profitable enough, are now selling their so loved altcoins for BTC in order to benefit from the increase lately.

I tried to tell you all to buy at $660, because I could sense it was getting ready to break out over $700.

Why $660? People have had the chance to buy at very low $500's at the time the Bitfinex hack started to kick in. Some lucky traders even managed to get themselves some sub $500 coins at that time. From $660 to now is just a tiny profit. Especially when you consider that the majority of the people here don't even have a whole BTC.

Next stop is high $700s ($800ish) at the cup & handle, which is what I predicted on Sept 3. It was the only prediction I made. I am not cherry picking from several statements I made.

I personally think that $750 will be the peak, perhaps slightly below that level, but we'll see what happens. Either way, very soon it will be time to secure profits.

Edit:

Best time to buy was triple bottom @180.

Most gamblers bought around 600-1000. So we will see resistance very soon.
Tbh i expect us to visit 660-680 again.

Sub $200 back in 2015 was indeed the far better time to buy yourself as many coins as possible, but I was more referring to the situation this year.

[criptix]

Poloniex is getting slammed. The pages will only load sometimes. Panic altcoin selling, BTC buying.

I actually find it funny how all the altcoin lovers that preach against Bitcoin being slow and not profitable enough, are now selling their so loved altcoins for BTC in order to benefit from the increase lately.

I tried to tell you all to buy at $660, because I could sense it was getting ready to break out over $700.

Why $660? People have had the chance to buy at very low $500's at the time the Bitfinex hack started to kick in. Some lucky traders even managed to get themselves some sub $500 coins at that time. From $660 to now is just a tiny profit. Especially when you consider that the majority of the people here don't even have a whole BTC.

Next stop is high $700s ($800ish) at the cup & handle, which is what I predicted on Sept 3. It was the only prediction I made. I am not cherry picking from several statements I made.

I personally think that $750 will be the peak, perhaps slightly below that level, but we'll see what happens. Either way, very soon it will be time to secure profits.

Best time to buy was triple bottom @180.

Most gamblers bought around 600-1000. So we will see resistance very soon.
Tbh i expect us to visit 660-680 again.

[Herbert2020]

Poloniex is getting slammed. The pages will only load sometimes. Panic altcoin selling, BTC buying.

I actually find it funny how all the altcoin lovers that preach against Bitcoin being slow and not profitable enough, are now selling their so loved altcoins for BTC in order to benefit from the increase lately.

that is what hype looks like, they keep saying our beloved coin is going to replace bitcoin and they literary milked the blocksize debate to to pump their coins and now look at the market

Best time to buy was triple bottom @180.

Most gamblers bought around 600-1000. So we will see resistance very soon.
Tbh i expect us to visit 660-680 again.

that best time (@180) is only working for the log term holders who are not planning on selling their coins this soon and they will keep holding for at least a couple of years more.

for the rest there have been so many other opportunities since last year to sell and buy and then sell and buy again. the most recent one was the $100 drop because of bitfinex hack

[iamnotback]

I actually find it funny how all the altcoin lovers that preach against Bitcoin being slow and not profitable enough, are now selling their so loved altcoins for BTC in order to benefit from the increase lately.

Those who want more profits try to trade between BTC and altcoins on a see-saw. After BTC peaks, then the altcoins go on a run up, as BTC runs out to altcoins. Then back to BTC or hold in dollars again. Repeat.

Also taking speculations on ICO and mined launches of best-of-breed altcoins has been a way to accumulate more BTC.

Smart money wants to build their stack of BTC any way they can and doesn't waste time with hands-tied-behind-back perma-bull, uni-asset ideology.

Crypto-curreny is an ecosystem. Not a monotheism. Leave the religion to the losers. Smart money is objective.

[iamnotback]

I actually find it funny how all the altcoin lovers that preach against Bitcoin being slow and not profitable enough, are now selling their so loved altcoins for BTC in order to benefit from the increase lately.

Those who want more profits try to trade between BTC and altcoins on a see-saw. After BTC peaks, then the altcoins go on a run up, as BTC runs out to altcoins. Then back to BTC or hold in dollars again. Repeat.

Also taking speculations on ICO and mined launches of best-of-breed altcoins has been a way to accumulate more BTC.

Smart money wants to build their stack of BTC any way they can and doesn't waste time with hands-tied-behind-back perma-bull, uni-asset ideology.

Crypto-curreny is an ecosystem. Not a monotheism. Leave the religion to the losers. Smart money is objective.

LTC (Litecoin) has the similar chart pattern as BTC. It has in the past followed BTC moves on a delay, with much greater percentage gains.

I would guess after BTC hits the peak of this move (probably at the handle of the C&H at ~$800ish), then LTC will blast off, if not before.

[iamnotback]

BTC is likely only a pause as some are taking profits out at $700+ to altcoins. After that is complete, it should resume move up and they will come racing back in dumping altcoins even more feverishly for BTC.

[pooya87]

I actually find it funny how all the altcoin lovers that preach against Bitcoin being slow and not profitable enough, are now selling their so loved altcoins for BTC in order to benefit from the increase lately.

Those who want more profits try to trade between BTC and altcoins on a see-saw. After BTC peaks, then the altcoins go on a run up, as BTC runs out to altcoins. Then back to BTC or hold in dollars again. Repeat.

Also taking speculations on ICO and mined launches of best-of-breed altcoins has been a way to accumulate more BTC.

Smart money wants to build their stack of BTC any way they can and doesn't waste time with hands-tied-behind-back perma-bull, uni-asset ideology.

Crypto-curreny is an ecosystem. Not a monotheism. Leave the religion to the losers. Smart money is objective.

LTC (Litecoin) has the similar chart pattern as BTC. It has in the past followed BTC moves on a delay, with much greater percentage gains.

I would guess after BTC hits the peak of this move (probably at the handle of the C&H at ~$800ish), then LTC will blast off, if not before.

i couldn't agree more.
they don't call litecoin as the second to bitcoin (silver) for nothing!
i have been seeing the same patters each time there is a movement in bitcoin price. and this time there has been a big uprise in bitcoin and on litecoin front, it has been stable around 0.006BTC for a long time and it was being accumulated. in other words everything is ready there for a huge rise to 0.01+

[iamnotback]

I actually find it funny how all the altcoin lovers that preach against Bitcoin being slow and not profitable enough, are now selling their so loved altcoins for BTC in order to benefit from the increase lately.

Those who want more profits try to trade between BTC and altcoins on a see-saw. After BTC peaks, then the altcoins go on a run up, as BTC runs out to altcoins. Then back to BTC or hold in dollars again. Repeat.

Also taking speculations on ICO and mined launches of best-of-breed altcoins has been a way to accumulate more BTC.

Smart money wants to build their stack of BTC any way they can and doesn't waste time with hands-tied-behind-back perma-bull, uni-asset ideology.

Crypto-curreny is an ecosystem. Not a monotheism. Leave the religion to the losers. Smart money is objective.

LTC (Litecoin) has the similar chart pattern as BTC. It has in the past followed BTC moves on a delay, with much greater percentage gains.

I would guess after BTC hits the peak of this move (probably at the handle of the C&H at ~$800ish), then LTC will blast off, if not before.

i couldn't agree more.
they don't call litecoin as the second to bitcoin (silver) for nothing!
i have been seeing the same patters each time there is a movement in bitcoin price. and this time there has been a big uprise in bitcoin and on litecoin front, it has been stable around 0.006BTC for a long time and it was being accumulated. in other words everything is ready there for a huge rise to 0.01+

Just be aware the wait could be longer than you expected. So only invest in LTC what you don't need for a year.