Something, something, something, technical analysis

[studio1one]

Clouds dammit. I want clouds.

Way too early for that

But chances are better now we're getting there pretty soon, I believe.

My flair is officially bullish. First time since March.

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[oda.krell]

The following is just a side remark, posted in full awareness that, while the current breakout looks solid to me, it could still turn out to be false, or at least retrace so much it'd hurt.

Anyway, here's a 15 min view of the breakout, together with the LT log downtrend I (and many others) have been going on about for ages...





Jup. That's clearly the shape of a big middle finger forming, aimed at those who think trendlines are just "randomly drawn lines on a chart" :D

Also, don't say it's "just a self-fulfilling prophecy". Even if it were one, it would still mean you can't ignore it.

EDIT

[...]

Taken together, those trendlines meet at 4 points:

(1) (Latest) Time of conclusion: Late May. Price point of conclusion: low to mid 400s. A possible candidate to mark the end of the December bear market. It would mean the 400 trendline held after all, but so does the more severe downtrend (B). Assuming it would  break out downwards, we would get to:

[...]

[lebing]

Just piping in here to say this isnt a circle jerk and there are more people following your stuff than you think 

[oda.krell]

Just piping in here to say this isnt a circle jerk and there are more people following your stuff than you think  ;)

Thanks! I really appreciate that :)

[JustAnotherSheep]

Agree with the bullishness. Breakthrough of short-term + the 2 longer-term log trendlines, with volume and force, was plenty enough to turn me bull and post the obligatory rocket pic in the wall observer thread

Now I just pray to all the market gods that, as you say, I'm not being played by a very clever (and very rich) whale. Or even worse, that this Wave B out of C, and that once we reach the top (estimated, in such a scenario, to be $600~ based on SMA200, fractal ratio analysis of the mid bear-cycle's top and bottom (400-710) as well as the good ol' fibhorn) we're in for another 6-month bear-market.

But this is far too bearish a scenario, even worse than 2011, makes no sense in our current situation (particularly if Wall Street is indeed gaining interest as rumored).

Edit: It's interesting to note how, in retrospect, the breaking of the linear resistance line seems a more valid signal of trend reversal than the log one(s), as it told the same tale only far earlier. One could call it a lucky fluke. Yet somehow it doesn't look like it, as the strong adherence to it as support after the breakthrough would lend weight to it still being a major (if not the major) line. Lesson for next time not to dismiss the linear chart so readily in favor of my bearish bias.

[oda.krell]

Agree with the bullishness. Breakthrough of short-term + the 2 longer-term log trendlines, with volume and force, was plenty enough to turn me bull and post the obligatory rocket pic in the wall observer thread

Now I just pray to all the market gods that, as you say, I'm not being played by a very clever (and very rich) whale. Or even worse, that this Wave B out of C, and that once we reach the top (estimated, in such a scenario, to be $600~ based on SMA200, fractal ratio analysis of the mid bear-cycle's top and bottom (400-710) as well as the good ol' fibhorn) we're in for another 6-month bear-market.

But this is far too bearish a scenario, even worse than 2011, makes no sense in our current situation (particularly if Wall Street is indeed gaining interest as rumored).

Edit: It's interesting to note how, in retrospect, the breaking of the linear resistance line seems a more valid signal of trend reversal than the log one(s), as it told the same tale only far earlier. One could call it a lucky fluke. Yet somehow it doesn't look like it, as the strong adherence to it as support after the breakthrough would lend weight to it still being a valid (if not the major) line. Lesson for next time not to dismiss the linear chart so readily in favor of my bearish bias.

Not sure about that.

Wrt price, it made very little difference, at least for the linear trendline and log trendline that I looked at (broken through at 445 on linear, at 449 on the log one).

But the real test is always 'breakthrough on volume'. And that one clearly goes to the log line.


EDIT: I see your point now.  You mean the linear trendline that connects to the December high. Agreed, volume wise you could argue it was at least as good as the current one, but the linear one you mean broke through at 499 520, then retraced quite a lot (down to 420), which is why I guess the market needed at least another confirmation.

[bucktotal]

taking a step back again, and looking at the longer-term trends in some indicators, it appears they have all flipped this past week 

on apr 24 i posted the above suggesting we had just started the trend reversal.

here is the update to this chart a few weeks farther along.

I've added my tuned SAR indicator, perhaps the clearest indicator of reversal over the years (but of course lags).

[bucktotal]

Clouds dammit. I want clouds.

Way too early for that

But chances are better now we're getting there pretty soon, I believe.

its important to consider the consequences of using the default settings on any indicator. its far safer to assume that each dynamic system has unique intrinsic properties, and adjust accordingly to better describe whats going on.

we indeed popped through the cloud today. but it was fast, so i'd just give it time to play out.

[oda.krell]

on apr 24 i posted the above suggesting we had just started the trend reversal.

here is the update to this chart a few weeks farther along.

I've added my tuned SAR indicator, perhaps the clearest indicator of reversal over the years (but of course lags).

[...]

I'm not dismissing your findings, but I don't agree with the way you present them either.

The question is similar to the one brought up by JustAnotherSheep two posts ago, about the earlier break of the linear downtrend: if price retraces again substantially and the market enters a low volume phase for more than an entire month, was it really already a 'reversal' at that time, or did the market itself wait for another confirmation? We should distinguish the (post facto) event "the bottom was in at that point" and the (determined as we go along) decision "reversal, yes or no?".

Part of that question is hypothetical, since we have seen yesterday the 2nd confirmation of a reversal. Another part of the question is not hypothetical at all: when should you buy in? Buying in at the earlier reversal signal would have meant getting in at 480 to 500. Waiting for the breakthrough yesterday gave you more certainty, as well as a better price: between 455 (if you were really fast) and 470.

Of course, if you were even faster, you were able to buy at 340 to 400, but we're talking about confirmation scenarios here, not buying into the bottom itself.

[bucktotal]

on apr 24 i posted the above suggesting we had just started the trend reversal.

here is the update to this chart a few weeks farther along.

I've added my tuned SAR indicator, perhaps the clearest indicator of reversal over the years (but of course lags).

[...]

I'm not dismissing your findings, but I don't agree with the way you present them either.

The question is similar to the one brought up by JustAnotherSheep two posts ago, about the earlier break of the linear downtrend: if price retraces again substantially and the market enters a low volume phase for more than an entire month, was it really already a 'reversal' at that time, or did the market itself wait for another confirmation? We should distinguish the (post facto) event "the bottom was in at that point" and the (determined as we go along) decision "reversal, yes or no?".

Part of that question is hypothetical, since we have seen yesterday the 2nd confirmation of a reversal. Another part of the question is not hypothetical at all: when should you buy in? Buying in at the earlier reversal signal would have meant getting in at 480 to 500. Waiting for the breakthrough yesterday gave you more certainty, as well as a better price: between 455 (if you were really fast) and 470.

Of course, if you were even faster, you were able to buy at 340 to 400, but we're talking about confirmation scenarios here, not buying into the bottom itself.

but you'll note that these charts have no trend lines. here, i've been showing bitcoin-tuned moving average indicators that help me see rates of change, and changes in rates of change. they are tuned to hopefully filter out noise and show me more clearly what stage we are in with respect to the long-term market oscillations.

personally, i was buying all the panic dips into the 350-500 range across a few exchanges anyway before these lagging signals. but for my more conservative investors funds that i manage (a.k.a., friends and family), i started buying at the earlier reversal signal that i posted, and buying all dips and a little every day over the past few weeks.


 

[oda.krell]

Short update on daily cloud, money flow

The 6h money flow view, which was the dominant reason for making me (cautiously) optimistic a week ago, continues to look pretty good (see first chart below). In addition we're going through the daily Ichimoku cloud quicker than I expected. We're currently sitting right below the upper boundary of the cloud (~$507), but I see a good chance that one more push will put us above eventually.

(aside: I'm looking into different parameters for the cloud, other than the standard ones... haven't found any that I like better yet, but will continue looking. Thanks for the suggestion, bucktotal)

We're still far below the daily SMA200, which by conventional wisdom means we should expect bearish throwbacks all the way up.

To reiterate the main point I was trying to make since my first MFI post: while I'm still skeptical whether we're entering a sustained bullish environment already (not enough fresh fiat for that yet, in my opinion), it looks to me like mid-400s marks a "sustainable price plateau", for the first time since the 2014 bear market began. So for those who were worried about a continued decline of the USD value of their trading account, this seemed like a good (re)entrance point.

[JustAnotherSheep]

Indeed, I suspect the bulls are getting over-excited over the exit of the long bear market and we'll soon see more heavy retraces and periods of consolidation before any real bubble-like growth can begin. Parallels might be drawn to 2013, where the bottom ($62) was followed by a sharp move to $100, followed by the first major drop.



Interestingly, applying the ratio of this on our presumed bottom (340) returns 548, so that might just be a local top followed by the expected heavier pullback (unless we go all the way to daily SMA200 in one shot).

Furthermore, I am paying close attention to hourly SMA200 (which lucif dubbed as "the holy grail of all bubbles" and so, by default, must be significant ) to get a sense of possible supports and whatnot. For now it is positioned very close to the long-term log support line, and during the aforementioned 2013 post-bottom drop it was pierced pretty heavily, so it's possible the support line will be tested before taking off properly.



However, I'm not entirely sure 2013 patterns are anything to go by in this case, as we never even crossed daily SMA200 then, so obviously the situation is (to some extent, at least) different. Then again, experience has taught me that ratios in particular tend to be consistent and static, defying common sense, so who knows.

edit: Another interesting thing I just noticed; applying the ratio of the local top (100) and bottom (76) for the above 2013 drop on daily SMA200 (currently around 630) results in 478, which is extremely close to the support line, which (judging by super-fringe and nooby ratio (over)analysis) would seem to support the notion of us going that far before the hypothetical major drop to test the line.

[oda.krell]

Indeed, I suspect the bulls are getting over-excited over the exit of the long bear market and we'll soon see more heavy retraces and periods of consolidation before any real bubble-like growth can begin. Parallels might be drawn to 2013, where the bottom ($62) was followed by a sharp move to $100, followed by the first major drop.



Interestingly, applying the ratio of this on our presumed bottom (340) returns 548, so that might just be a local top followed by the expected heavier pullback (unless we go all the way to daily SMA200 in one shot).

Furthermore, I am paying close attention to hourly SMA200 (which lucif dubbed as "the holy grail of all bubbles" and so, by default, must be significant ) to get a sense of possible supports and whatnot. For now it is positioned very close to the long-term log support line, and during the aforementioned 2013 post-bottom drop it was pierced pretty heavily, so it's possible the support line will be tested before taking off properly.



However, I'm not entirely sure 2013 patterns are anything to go by in this case, as we never even crossed daily SMA200 then, so obviously the situation is (to some extent, at least) different. Then again, experience has taught me that ratios in particular tend to be consistent and static, defying common sense, so who knows.

edit: Another interesting thing I just noticed; applying the ratio of the local top (100) and bottom (76) for the above 2013 drop on daily SMA200 (currently around 630) results in 478, which is extremely close to the support line, which (judging by super-fringe and nooby ratio (over)analysis) would seem to support the notion of us going that far before the hypothetical major drop to test the line.

Excellent points.

Initially, I kept thinking that the early April run-up should look like July last year, but that was way too optimistic of course. I like to think of the period right now as our "2nd chance" to get out of the bear market.

I follow your ratio analysis, and don't have much to say other than that it makes some sense, and that I would add: what made July '13 such a clear reversal was that the piercing of the mid term average (1h SMA200, 30d EMA works as well) was rejected almost immediately. The drop was followed by a step-by-step climb up through the fibo levels, with almost no further retracements, on rising volume (I think I posted the details of that climb several pages ago in here). That's what I'd like to see again, after we'll see the (probably inevitable) next drop.

[oda.krell]

Above $534. First Fibonacci retracement level of entire downtrend broken.

Good news: we managed to decisively get above $534, the first (23.6%) retracement when looking at the entire downtrend so far, from ~1200 to ~340.

Note 1: I'm going to assume we close above, on daily. Failure to do so would be, hm, not so great.

Note 2: doesn't mean we're out of the danger zone entirely, in my opinion --  volume is still too low to say with certainty that we're going to see a sustained rally already. But it is what it is: a very positive signal. (2nd chart for comparison: what happened when we made it above 23% last year)


2014, Bitstamp




2013, Mtgox

[Tzupy]

Charts show most overbought since January, at the peak of wave B. For now this looks like a bull trap to me.

[MatTheCat]

Charts show most overbought since January, at the peak of wave B. For now this looks like a bull trap to me.

The waves resemble corrective (ABC) waves far more than impulse waves, yet the remaining long term down trend was broken through emphatically. This would have been a must buy-in point for me (~$540), but I was in my bed and Bitstamp's trading tools are fkn shit...so no facility for auto-triggering trade at certain price point. So I kind of missed my planned rebuy in point (I got $460 - $520) and am now in a real dilemma as to what move I should take. After all, Everyone was waiting on that long term resistance line being breached and it would be exactly this kind of market pushing that would allow whales to cash in on a rush of sentiment. Do I risk having my rush of sentiment cashed in on?

Whilst on paper, very significant bullish indicators have been breached, but perhaps this upswing has been far too vertical and must surely represent excessive market sentiment other than a sweeping groundswell of fresh interest in Bitcoin?

[segeln]

Charts show most overbought since January, at the peak of wave B. For now this looks like a bull trap to me.

no , most oversold,not overbought

[segeln]

. So I kind of missed my planned rebuy in point (I got $460 - $520) and am now in a real dilemma as to what move I should take. After all, Everyone was waiting on that long term resistance line being breached and it would be exactly this kind of market pushing that would allow whales to cash in on a rush of sentiment. Do I risk having my rush of sentiment cashed in on?

stop trading.you are not apt for that.
Just a troll and TA noob

[MatTheCat]

. So I kind of missed my planned rebuy in point (I got $460 - $520) and am now in a real dilemma as to what move I should take. After all, Everyone was waiting on that long term resistance line being breached and it would be exactly this kind of market pushing that would allow whales to cash in on a rush of sentiment. Do I risk having my rush of sentiment cashed in on?

stop trading.you are not apt for that.
Just a troll and TA noob

My recent buy-in plans would suggest otherwise. I caught one sweet, came out a bit early ($520) but intended to rebuy back in should a certain trend line be taken out.....it was, but I can't stay awake 24 hours.......


........and you are one to talk about being a TA noob......you fucking grade A HODLER you. Admit it, segeln, you are still underwater on Bitcoin. I have viewed your old posts.

Bitcoin at $1000 "Buy and Hold Buy and Hold"
Bitcoin at $800 "Buy and Hold Buy and Hold"

Cos when Bitcoin goes to $2000, them there will be good prices, right?

"Buy and Hold, Buy and Hold"

Fucking parrot clown.

[segeln]

grade A HODLER you. Admit it, segeln, you are still underwater on Bitcoin. .

yes I am still underwater. But as hodler this is not a Problem
Bought in at about 750 $ .My last buy was 350 $ 20  BTC
your gentlemanlike idoms/words are very impressive
But not my style