Something, something, something, technical analysis

[oda.krell]

Alright, let's try something different. I'm going to zoom out a bit, because (I'm sure you will agree) it's pretty difficult to read the market right now.

(cue Mat "manipulative whale whores everywhere, cannot trust this price, ramble ramble".)

Note that I'm smoothing out the details in the following one. Median price instead of candles. 30 day EMA as the comparative baseline. I want to look at the bigger picture for a moment, okay?





Looking at it like that, it doesn't sound completely unreasonable to me to ask "are we playing out a similar post-bubble correction like in 2013, and are we at the end of it?".

The similarities: red circle is the "Oh fuck. The rally is really over, after all" phase. Suddenly there's almost no hope left (except for permabulls) that we're breaking through the top again. Predictably, then comes the flash crash.

Next, we go back above the 30d EMA. Sentiment: "Hey, maybe this time the recovery will be done much quicker! Look, we already found the bottom last week!". Nope. It's never over that quick. Orange circle follows.

Which is where we are now. Maybe. Let's say we are, for a second.

So what would we expect to see in that case? Looking back to July/August 2013, let's note first that there's plenty of room for indecision reflected in the price. We actually went below the 30d EMA for another week. But eventually, it'll have to stay above... no need for huge jumps at first, but we do need to stay above that baseline at some point, or it's going to look like the correction will drag on.

In analogy with 2013, I'd say (raw) price briefly dipping back to 600 is still okay, but if it's going back below 580 then it's probably a lost cause. Also, any of those visits below the EMA should be over in about a week, maybe two, otherwise the similarities to 2013 pretty much end there.
EDIT: Correction. Forgot about the dump on July 18 that took out 60% of the gains we made since the capitulation. Analogous would be staying above 520 now.

One thing: don't come in here shouting "what reversal, we're still firmly in a downtrend", please. Think of the above as a hypothetical question in if/then form: if we are indeed in a recovery situation similar to July 2013, what would we expect to see in the next week or two.

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[Ibian]

I like bigger pictures. Easier to tell what I'm looking at.

Someone posted a chart a while back mirroring the last bubble with the one we are in now. Almost perfect mirror match, and if so the next rally should start in the middle of this month. Anyone know the one? Repost if so?

[bassclef]

Here's my take. We're gonna need a bigger track

[JustAnotherSheep]

I like bigger pictures. Easier to tell what I'm looking at.

Someone posted a chart a while back mirroring the last bubble with the one we are in now. Almost perfect mirror match, and if so the next rally should start in the middle of this month. Anyone know the one? Repost if so?

No idea if you meant my post in lucif's thread, probably not lol but anyway

Seems to me a drop to SMA200 on Stamp is getting more likely. Support line of the triangle has been slightly pierced, price is persistently staying there and the candles are getting more squeezed. Given the insignificant distance I suspect a downwards breakout would carry enough momentum to at least short term pierce SMA200 as well, possibly towards bottom or close to it as a repeat of April post-crash patterns.

Would love if some more competent analyst could confirm with actual TA and not just this nonsense

edit: Pic for clearer conveyance of meaning

Price did quickly pierce SMA200 with a bounce near floor, just as predicted and just as it happened in the April crash. Historic comparative analysis has served me extremely well in the past, so I wouldn't be surprised if it holds now too (meaning bear market should be over). However luc recently made a post pointing out a potential inverted cup n' handle pattern, so I'm not betting on any horses yet

[FeedbackLoop]

Isn't there a bullish flag forming since March in the daily?

Just trying to throw 2 Finneys at this thread.

[oda.krell]

Isn't there a bullish flag forming since March in the daily?

Just trying to throw 2 Finneys at this thread.

Not sure if you're serious or poking fun at my (continuation of uptrend = bullish) pennant post some days ago, but in principle you could still argued for the pattern still being there:



But tbh, I don't see it as the most likely scenario either anymore.

[FeedbackLoop]

heh!

Sorry didn't see that. Thanks for the nice update on the figure!
 

[sgbett]

Alright, let's try something different. I'm going to zoom out a bit, because (I'm sure you will agree) it's pretty difficult to read the market right now.

(cue Mat "manipulative whale whores everywhere, cannot trust this price, ramble ramble".)

Note that I'm smoothing out the details in the following one. Median price instead of candles. 30 day EMA as the comparative baseline. I want to look at the bigger picture for a moment, okay?





Looking at it like that, it doesn't sound completely unreasonable to me to ask "are we playing out a similar post-bubble correction like in 2013, and are we at the end of it?".

The similarities: red circle is the "Oh fuck. The rally is really over, after all" phase. Suddenly there's almost no hope left (except for permabulls) that we're breaking through the top again. Predictably, then comes the flash crash.

Next, we go back above the 30d EMA. Sentiment: "Hey, maybe this time the recovery will be done much quicker! Look, we already found the bottom last week!". Nope. It's never over that quick. Orange circle follows.

Which is where we are now. Maybe. Let's say we are, for a second.

So what would we expect to see in that case? Looking back to July/August 2013, let's note first that there's plenty of room for indecision reflected in the price. We actually went below the 30d EMA for another week. But eventually, it'll have to stay above... no need for huge jumps at first, but we do need to stay above that baseline at some point, or it's going to look like the correction will drag on.

In analogy with 2013, I'd say (raw) price briefly dipping back to 600 is still okay, but if it's going back below 580 then it's probably a lost cause. Also, any of those visits below the EMA should be over in about a week, maybe two, otherwise the similarities to 2013 pretty much end there.
EDIT: Correction. Forgot about the dump on July 18 that took out 60% of the gains we made since the capitulation. Analogous would be staying above 520 now.

One thing: don't come in here shouting "what reversal, we're still firmly in a downtrend", please. Think of the above as a hypothetical question in if/then form: if we are indeed in a recovery situation similar to July 2013, what would we expect to see in the next week or two.

I like that chart a lot, because it looks like a graph of human psychology, and in bitcoin that's still really relevant (imho).

So I have nothing to add! Every day goes by it feels like this bottom was already in. I'm happy with the coins I bought in the 500s, and that is something I could never have imagined myself saying last year. In fact I recall specifically deciding against buying on the crash from $266 to under a hundred, because I just couldn't get my head around pay $90 for ONE bitcoin.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Love "fool's trend line".

Can you elaborate on "improper RSI" for a recovery? MACD seemed OK, imho, though.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=489756.0

Thanks, very interesting info and informative thread

[oda.krell]

I like that chart a lot, because it looks like a graph of human psychology, and in bitcoin that's still really relevant (imho).

So I have nothing to add! Every day goes by it feels like this bottom was already in. I'm happy with the coins I bought in the 500s, and that is something I could never have imagined myself saying last year. In fact I recall specifically deciding against buying on the crash from $266 to under a hundred, because I just couldn't get my head around pay $90 for ONE bitcoin.

Wish I had your optimism. I guess I can see some positive signs (other than that we're not trading near 500 again, of course), like a CMF recovery similar to the one in July 2013 (see chart 1), but on the other hand I really wish the 630-640 (24% retracement) area would start providing support finally (chart 2). So far, it seems that we touch back into and below it without much effort... and that's how the long slide down started from Jan 7 to 14 as well (same fibo level, not same price level of course).

I lost my appetite for trading a bit right now, so I'm sitting on my hands anyway, but in my view we have about one more week to decide whether we're staying above the next retracement level for good (i.e. we don't dip back below 630/640), and if and when that happens, I'm going to be a bit more optimistic.

We also have that looming December-to-now trendline (chart 3), and we'll have to figure out eventually if that one turns out to be still active... if the resistance at around 650 keeps throwing us back down, I might start betting on a continuation of the downtrend/consolidation after all.



(1)




(2)



(3)




EDIT: I guess there's another positive view on our current situation, if you look at the retracement steps from the January peak to the recent 400 bottom. The 24% level was taken back almost immediately, and the most recent jump to 700 solidly put us up one level higher (38%, above 627, where we stayed for most of the time since the jump up). The next level, 50%, at around 700, will have to fall eventually, and I have no way of telling if the upwards pressure is strong enough for that, but I'm just mentioning all of this because previously I only looked at the retracement levels of the latest uptrend, but never looked at it from the perspective of the 995 to 400 downtrend.

[lebing]

Here's my take. We're gonna need a bigger track

Interesting, thanks.

[oda.krell]

The plot thickens. Triangle closing, or maybe broken already to the downside. I don't think we're going to break through the December downtrend this weekend, but if whatever dip we might see over the weekend doesn't take us below ~600 I can see a continuation like shown below for the next week to 10 days, where we finally break through the LT downtrend and have a retest of 700. CMF, order book, even bitfinex stats all look pretty good, there's just not enough momentum, and we're a bit too overbought, to go through it *right* now.

[arepo]

The plot thickens. Triangle closing, or maybe broken already to the downside. I don't think we're going to break through the December downtrend this weekend, but if whatever dip we might see over the weekend doesn't take us below ~600 I can see a continuation like shown below for the next week to 10 days, where we finally break through the LT downtrend and have a retest of 700. CMF, order book, even bitfinex stats all look pretty good, there's just not enough momentum, and we're a bit too overbought, to go through it *right* now.

by my figure, this isn't a proper triangle consolidation pattern because the drawn resistance doesn't have enough points of contact. this looks much more like a micro-bubble started by the large movement up to $710. i expect a relatively sharp movement down to mirror the movement up, retracing at least 61.8% of the way back down to the $530 support, which confirms your target at the $600 support.

we shall see...

--arepo

[oda.krell]

The plot thickens. Triangle closing, or maybe broken already to the downside. I don't think we're going to break through the December downtrend this weekend, but if whatever dip we might see over the weekend doesn't take us below ~600 I can see a continuation like shown below for the next week to 10 days, where we finally break through the LT downtrend and have a retest of 700. CMF, order book, even bitfinex stats all look pretty good, there's just not enough momentum, and we're a bit too overbought, to go through it *right* now.

by my figure, this isn't a proper triangle consolidation pattern because the drawn resistance doesn't have enough points of contact. this looks much more like a micro-bubble started by the large movement up to $710. i expect a relatively sharp movement down to mirror the movement up, retracing at least 61.8% of the way back down to the $530 support, which confirms your target at the $600 support.

we shall see...

--arepo

That's the December downtrend I (and many others) have been going on about forever... I didn't zoom out far enough to show the (3 to 4) points of contact because I assumed by now everyone agrees that it is a valid trend (even though it might be undecided how much staying power it has).




EDIT: I just re-read my post. you're right, since I didn't mention it is the December downtrend, it was misleading. My mistake.

[arepo]

EDIT: I just re-read my post. you're right, since I didn't mention it is the December downtrend, it was misleading. My mistake.

no worries. i realized shortly after that post that on the 1-week scale this figure does indeed look like its own triangle consolidation pattern, and mentioned the model in an update in the newsletter thread, as it does agree with the other data

--arepo

[oda.krell]

What if I told you...

(Morpheus meme)

... we already broke the December downtrend, but nobody noticed it.




Yes, that's median price, not candles. Deal with it. Also, don't read too much into it, I know I don't. Just the byproduct of my fumbling attempts to see the similarities and differences between this bubble cycle and the ones before. For example, I noticed that the idea that at the end of the initial post peak downtrend we must immediately see signs for a clear uptrend became somewhat fixated in my mind. Perhaps a mistake.

[seleme]

You love changing thread title, don't you?  

Anyway, I'm due for some bubble really, I need some adrenaline  

My little daughter asked me some questions about our new house today, her plans for ner new rooms etc., I hope that is a sign  

[oda.krell]

You love changing thread title, don't you?  

Anyway, I'm due for some bubble really, I need some adrenaline  

My little daughter asked me some questions about our new house today, her plans for ner new rooms etc., I hope that is a sign  

Damn you for calling out my clever ruse to trick people into thinking something new (and of value) has been posted. *shakes fist*

[seleme]

You love changing thread title, don't you?  

Anyway, I'm due for some bubble really, I need some adrenaline  

My little daughter asked me some questions about our new house today, her plans for ner new rooms etc., I hope that is a sign  

Damn you for calling out my clever ruse to trick people into thinking something new (and of value) has been posted. *shakes fist*

Haha, you do trick me for a second, then I check who is OP and figure it out

[segeln]

Because there's nothing he could say in English to convince me that we're just suddenly going to break out right now and have a single rally all the way to ATH and beyond in less than a month. "godmode trader" has spoken.

But godmode trader said that we might break out above $760, in which case prices upwards of $1100 etc were possible.......but if we broke below $490, then we could go down as far as $200s.

This isn't god mode trading. This is drawing lines on a fucking graph and saying the points where major trendlines hit.

OMG,MatTheCat`s translationon of the godmodetrader text ist teribble wrong.And so he did`nt get the issue
But he is sure an expert on TA.

TERA wrote on March 6.:

that we're just suddenly going to break out right now and have a single rally all the way to ATH and beyond in less than a month.

Well ,I mark the date and will see the ATH as predicted in  a fortnight.
Up to now it doesn`t seem to become true though.
But when experts are saying this..I will Close my mouth. But this does`nt prevent me from ROTFLOL