Something, something, something, technical analysis

[oda.krell]

[snip]

Short Term: Bitcoin to trend down to $500

Medium Term: Bitcoin to continue to zig zag in rising diagonal formation shown, ultimately breaking out and reaching 50% Fib retracement zone (~$750) marking $1160 - $340 correction.

Possible. The rising wedge you see is definitely an option, and (at conclusion) has a bearish bias. But:

Long term: Bitcoin to $200.

...is kind of out there. To conclude that, based on your currently favored wave count, we're going up until late August, then will break down to a new correction low is a bit too speculative for my taste.

[MatTheCat]

Long term: Bitcoin to $200.

...is kind of out there. To conclude that, based on your currently favoured wave count, we're going up until late August, then will break down to a new correction low is a bit too speculative for my taste.

And for my taste also to let the truth be told, but speculating such a negative figure, so far off in the distance, way beyond the mountains can prove useful nonetheless in that it provides a reminder that the bull market correction isn't over until it is confirmed as over. I can remember at least two times (Jan 2014, March 2013) in recent Bitcoin price history where even I was convinced that the bear trend was behind us and new ATH's were on the way, only for the reality of the situation to bite me on the arse, twice.

I never knew anything about EW theory back then, but if I had, I may not have been so confident that Bitcoin was going 2 da moon. Just recently, I watched a video of a DanV Session on youtube. This was back right on the very eve of the Jan 6th 2014 $995 high. DanV was of course using MtGox to chart Bitcoin but even at this point, when the 'euphoria' was reaching its peak as Bitcoin shot through $1000 on 'Zynga news' (LOL), his adherence to EW principles lead him to the conclusion that we would have to retest the $450 low (MtGox). He was of course ridiculed and laughed off the internet, but we all know what has happened since then.

Perhaps the top of the corrective Wave B will coincide with official media confirmation that Bitcoin's astronomical rise in 2013 was largely due to fake volume generated by Willy n Markus on Gox, raising the question of similar pet fraudulent trading bots on the other large exchanges?

Point is, it looks to my eyes that we have just had a classic Wave A down, consisting of a clean 5-3-5-3-5 impulse wave down, with correspondingly appropriate fractal waves within them. Now it seems like we are on a Wave B. Lots can happen, but I think most people here understand what the most text book example of an ABC corrective wave is.

[oda.krell]

Here's the best guess I have about our situation: We're trading inside the following upwards channel for now:



We could go straight up from here, breaking out of the channel (yellow line. not that likely anymore, in my opinion), we could test the mid line and find support (quite possible), we could test the lower boundary and find support (less likely, but possible), or we could break through the lower boundary (not likely right now).

(EDIT: none of the lines defining that channel are strongly motivated, but I take the fact that they form a (rough) parallel channel as a bit of evidence in favor of them. Point being, actual support and resistance might be more closely located around fib levels and running averages in the vicinity of those lines than around the exact lines marking the channel itself.)

Everything but the blue line is pretty bullish (except for a bit of swinging around). Everything that comes after this channel requires a level of predictive power I personally can't find motivation for right now.

[MatTheCat]

Everything but the blue line is pretty bullish (except for a bit of swinging around). Everything that comes after this channel requires a level of predictive power I personally can't find motivation for right now.

Your pink line, crashes right through the trend line which was tested last week around $440, met at the $340 bottom, met again in the Oct Silk Road Crash, and trended along in Jan 2013.

If your pink line comes to pass, I would need to look at only shorting Bitcoin as a long term uptrend would be confirmed as finished, which would of course mean that we would be in a downtrend.

[oda.krell]

Everything but the blue line is pretty bullish (except for a bit of swinging around). Everything that comes after this channel requires a level of predictive power I personally can't find motivation for right now.

Your pink line, crashes right through the trend line which was tested last week around $440, met at the $340 bottom, met again in the Oct Silk Road Crash, and trended along in Jan 2013.

If your pink line comes to pass, I would need to look at only shorting Bitcoin as a long term uptrend would be confirmed as finished, which would of course mean that we would be in a downtrend.

Not by my analysis. I have argued strenuously in here that I see strong evidence of (natural) buying support in the mid 400s. You're free to reject that conclusion obviously, but by my interpretation, pink line would just be 'ever so weakly upwards leaning consolidation'.

Basically, broken trendline doesn't mean much to me if there's a stronger factor in the back of my mind. Short term, it would be bearish, sure: we'd go below the 23% fib 1200-340, which means you'll hear the bulls cry again. Could be however that breaking through it without closing under it is the confirmation we need that we're out of the larger downtrend for good.

EDIT: and that particular trendline, the one that goes through the SR crash, is not a favorite of mine anyway. SR is a borderline outlier, so I weigh it less to begin with, it's far far in the past, with zero point between then and now even getting close to it, and it's angle is way too steep to really be a realistic line of support. the trendline that formed the triangle I looked at (until we broke out 9 days ago) was simply the slightly rising support through ~400.

[oda.krell]

Here's the best guess I have about our situation: We're trading inside the following upwards channel for now:



We could go straight up from here, breaking out of the channel (yellow line. not that likely anymore, in my opinion), we could test the mid line and find support (quite possible), we could test the lower boundary and find support (less likely, but possible), or we could break through the lower boundary (not likely right now).

(EDIT: none of the lines defining that channel are strongly motivated, but I take the fact that they form a (rough) parallel channel as a bit of evidence in favor of them. Point being, actual support and resistance might be more closely located around fib levels and running averages in the vicinity of those lines than around the exact lines marking the channel itself.)

Everything but the blue line is pretty bullish (except for a bit of swinging around). Everything that comes after this channel requires a level of predictive power I personally can't find motivation for right now.

So much for the upper boundary of that channel... broken, after just a short 4 day breather. In the end there was only little resistance at 600 -- partly because the orderbook is pretty empty. Yay for sellers' exhaustion! (12k coins asks in total on Bitstamp order book vs. 24k about a month ago)




Next likely point of resistance? Probably daily SMA200, currently ~640. No idea whether we can make it through that one as well, but I'm skeptical... it's starting to look a bit overextended to me. No good reason I can see to go short though, if you're only aiming to sell on the big swings down.

[seleme]

200 SMA won't go without a fight but if it does, then we might be into something 

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

200 SMA won't go without a fight but if it does, then we might be into something 

If it was ~640, it is left far behind ... Does bitcoin ever corrects properly in the bull market, or do we only have flat price action instead of corrections? So far there was not a meaningful correction since the breakout from $450 happened 

[igorr]

Willy bot working hard to rise up the bitcoin price, and trying to adapt us to the new level price,
but this will be short term, and after that coming final fall and bitcoin the end.
Bistamp or or any other exchange will be shutdown.
(mining factor will be below 1 cents per GH at 24hr)

View Screen Capture[/u
[/quote]

[seleme]

Willy bot working hard to rise up the bitcoin price, and trying to adapt us to the new level price,
but this will be short term, and after that coming final fall and bitcoin the end.
Bistamp or or any other exchange will be shutdown.
(mining factor will be below 1 cents per GH at 24hr)

View Screen Capture[/u

[/quote]

and you're still be idiot, your usual self

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Everything but the blue line is pretty bullish (except for a bit of swinging around). Everything that comes after this channel requires a level of predictive power I personally can't find motivation for right now.

Your pink line, crashes right through the trend line which was tested last week around $440, met at the $340 bottom, met again in the Oct Silk Road Crash, and trended along in Jan 2013.

If your pink line comes to pass, I would need to look at only shorting Bitcoin as a long term uptrend would be confirmed as finished, which would of course mean that we would be in a downtrend.

Not by my analysis. I have argued strenuously in here that I see strong evidence of (natural) buying support in the mid 400s. You're free to reject that conclusion obviously, but by my interpretation, pink line would just be 'ever so weakly upwards leaning consolidation'.

Basically, broken trendline doesn't mean much to me if there's a stronger factor in the back of my mind. Short term, it would be bearish, sure: we'd go below the 23% fib 1200-340, which means you'll hear the bulls cry again. Could be however that breaking through it without closing under it is the confirmation we need that we're out of the larger downtrend for good.

EDIT: and that particular trendline, the one that goes through the SR crash, is not a favorite of mine anyway. SR is a borderline outlier, so I weigh it less to begin with, it's far far in the past, with zero point between then and now even getting close to it, and it's angle is way too steep to really be a realistic line of support. the trendline that formed the triangle I looked at (until we broke out 9 days ago) was simply the slightly rising support through ~400.

Oda, do you think your violet scenario - retrace to ~540 - is occurring right now?

[zimmah]

Willy bot working hard to rise up the bitcoin price, and trying to adapt us to the new level price,
but this will be short term, and after that coming final fall and bitcoin the end.
Bistamp or or any other exchange will be shutdown.
(mining factor will be below 1 cents per GH at 24hr)

View Screen Capture[/u

and you're still be idiot, your usual self

-200 by march 2015. I think i'll wait with buying bitcoin, by march i can get a bitcoin for free and get $200 with it.

[Broseph Stalin]

My sloppily drawn chart. Two more legs to go?

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

My sloppily drawn chart. Two more legs to go?

Looks interesting, although price scale on the right is missing

[oda.krell]

Everything but the blue line is pretty bullish (except for a bit of swinging around). Everything that comes after this channel requires a level of predictive power I personally can't find motivation for right now.

Your pink line, crashes right through the trend line which was tested last week around $440, met at the $340 bottom, met again in the Oct Silk Road Crash, and trended along in Jan 2013.

If your pink line comes to pass, I would need to look at only shorting Bitcoin as a long term uptrend would be confirmed as finished, which would of course mean that we would be in a downtrend.

Not by my analysis. I have argued strenuously in here that I see strong evidence of (natural) buying support in the mid 400s. You're free to reject that conclusion obviously, but by my interpretation, pink line would just be 'ever so weakly upwards leaning consolidation'.

Basically, broken trendline doesn't mean much to me if there's a stronger factor in the back of my mind. Short term, it would be bearish, sure: we'd go below the 23% fib 1200-340, which means you'll hear the bulls cry again. Could be however that breaking through it without closing under it is the confirmation we need that we're out of the larger downtrend for good.

EDIT: and that particular trendline, the one that goes through the SR crash, is not a favorite of mine anyway. SR is a borderline outlier, so I weigh it less to begin with, it's far far in the past, with zero point between then and now even getting close to it, and it's angle is way too steep to really be a realistic line of support. the trendline that formed the triangle I looked at (until we broke out 9 days ago) was simply the slightly rising support through ~400.

Oda, do you think your violet scenario - retrace to ~540 - is occurring right now?

That channel was invalidated some days ago, and the lines I drew in hardly deserve the word 'scenario'... I wouldn't try to derive a price target from them (which I said in my post).

That said, I do see some evidence that we're seeing the first major retracement of this rally. For example, daily close below 1d SMA200, and what arguably looks like a shooting star pattern forming...








So, yes, unless buying pressure suddenly returns and turns this around, I expect a further retrace, to $590 perhaps, ~$530 if it gets nasty.

To be clear, I don't see any signs that our rally is over for good, so if you only care about the really large swings, or the really long stagnation periods, there's little need to act yet in my opinion.

[windjc]

Everything but the blue line is pretty bullish (except for a bit of swinging around). Everything that comes after this channel requires a level of predictive power I personally can't find motivation for right now.

Your pink line, crashes right through the trend line which was tested last week around $440, met at the $340 bottom, met again in the Oct Silk Road Crash, and trended along in Jan 2013.

If your pink line comes to pass, I would need to look at only shorting Bitcoin as a long term uptrend would be confirmed as finished, which would of course mean that we would be in a downtrend.

Not by my analysis. I have argued strenuously in here that I see strong evidence of (natural) buying support in the mid 400s. You're free to reject that conclusion obviously, but by my interpretation, pink line would just be 'ever so weakly upwards leaning consolidation'.

Basically, broken trendline doesn't mean much to me if there's a stronger factor in the back of my mind. Short term, it would be bearish, sure: we'd go below the 23% fib 1200-340, which means you'll hear the bulls cry again. Could be however that breaking through it without closing under it is the confirmation we need that we're out of the larger downtrend for good.

EDIT: and that particular trendline, the one that goes through the SR crash, is not a favorite of mine anyway. SR is a borderline outlier, so I weigh it less to begin with, it's far far in the past, with zero point between then and now even getting close to it, and it's angle is way too steep to really be a realistic line of support. the trendline that formed the triangle I looked at (until we broke out 9 days ago) was simply the slightly rising support through ~400.

Oda, do you think your violet scenario - retrace to ~540 - is occurring right now?

That channel was invalidated some days ago, and the lines I drew in hardly deserve the word 'scenario'... I wouldn't try to derive a price target from them (which I said in my post).

That said, I do see some evidence that we're seeing the first major retracement of this rally. For example, daily close below 1d SMA200, and what arguably looks like a shooting star pattern forming...








So, yes, unless buying pressure suddenly returns and turns this around, I expect a further retrace, to $590 perhaps, ~$530 if it gets nasty.

To be clear, I don't see any signs that our rally is over for good, so if you only care about the really large swings, or the really long stagnation periods, there's little need to act yet in my opinion.

Well, I'm not sure if we need a lot of buying pressure. If sellers don't keep selling, is there any way to go but up?

If we don't close the day below 621 then that example is invalidated anyway.

Im not convinced we see lower. Maybe.

[oda.krell]

[...]

Well, I'm not sure if we need a lot of buying pressure. If sellers don't keep selling, is there any way to go but up?

If we don't close the day below 621 then that example is invalidated anyway.

Im not convinced we see lower. Maybe.

I'm not convinced either. Just pointing out two, comparably bearish, short term developments.

Anyway, confirmation or rejection should be there within today or tomorrow. Best case for the bulls, today goes back up to touch daily BB upper band, and I'd say from tomorrow onwards the rally is back on. On the other hand, very weak red or green candle today, but no major move, means we have to wait more.

re: "close the day below 621". I don't look at the shooting star pattern that way, by those precise rules some like to give... It's simply an "inverted hammer" to me, which is why I at least consider that it marks a (temporary) peak.

[sgbett]

not to mention candlesticks need a market open/close to even exist. you can make them by picking some arbitrary time as your cutoff, but depending on which time you pick, you get different patterns.

[RyNinDaCleM]

not to mention candlesticks need a market open/close to even exist. you can make them by picking some arbitrary time as your cutoff, but depending on which time you pick, you get different patterns.

This is true, however the consensus is that 23:59.59 UTC is the close and 00:00 UTC is the open (the same as Bitcoincharts.com)

[MatTheCat]

not to mention candlesticks need a market open/close to even exist. you can make them by picking some arbitrary time as your cutoff, but depending on which time you pick, you get different patterns.

Doesn't matter.

A 1 day or 4 hour candlestick or candlestick pattern still gives plenty clues about market psychology over that time period.

The 1 day shooting start between $618 and $680, I could smell coming, as the market got thinner and thinner yet continued to rise up and up. The switch in market psychology is obvious. We now had a load of leveraged trades that were growing very very fat but all waiting to come out probably around the area of last significant resistance in $700 zone, but who are now either out of their trades in a panic, or waiting on the market to come back up as much as possible before exiting their trades. It will be a seller driven market until the leveraged longs have taken their profits and we have consolidated, I suspect somewhere in mid $500s a base will be found from which the grounds will be fertile for another whale driven ramp.