Something, something, something, technical analysis

[Tzupy]

oda.krell, you missed the chance to post the bearish scenario I was asking for.
Now the bullish scenario has been invalidated and the bearish one (capitulation) is going strong.

IIRC you advised someone to buy a couple of months ago because it looked 'safe' (bear market seemed over).
If so, then IMO you should advise them to sell now or on the rebound that will follow, they can buy back below 300$.

[1714946750]

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[oda.krell]

oda.krell, you missed the chance to post the bearish scenario I was asking for. :D
Now the bullish scenario has been invalidated and the bearish one (capitulation) is going strong.

IIRC you advised someone to buy a couple of months ago because it looked 'safe' (bear market seemed over).
If so, then IMO you should advise them to sell now or on the rebound that will follow, they can buy back below 300$.

Different time scales, and different trading goals. My posts from May talking about buying support in the mid 400s, leading to the relatively unconditional (compared to my usual statements at least :D) buying recommendation at $459, were on a different, larger trading time scale compared to what you have in mind, I believe.

Also, I don't see evidence that this level (the 400s) won't be supported by buying now, if we should even go there. Not saying it's impossible that we break through into the 300s, but I'm not expecting it.

That said, lots of trading opportunity in between then and now. But for a lack of time to write long essays, but also because of the above mentioned different goals I have in mind for this thread, I'd rather leave the shorter term trades out of my analysis.

[ElectricMucus]

[Wilhelm]

Is it me or did the triangle break upwards with some volume... meaning your analysis could be faulty. 

[ElectricMucus]

That's not how Bollinger Band Width works. It's a measure of volatility.

[oda.krell]

I figured that BBW graph wasn't supposed to be a (broken) triangle, but care to explain what you did do there? I'll freely admit, I have no idea what indicator/technique you're using there, and I'm on TV myself.

[ElectricMucus]

The idea is that after a period of decreasing volatility (that "triangle" on BBW) the market tends to "remember" the volatility of the prior breakout and tries to relive it.  The real target is where BBW slows down and forms a top, the price target is more of a guess of how that might happen.

[ElectricMucus]

Oh wow that failed epically. Punched right through.

[Ovum]

The idea is that after a period of decreasing volatility (that "triangle" on BBW) the market tends to "remember" the volatility of the prior breakout and tries to relive it.  The real target is where BBW slows down and forms a top, the price target is more of a guess of how that might happen.

So, what is (was) in this case the previous breakout. For what you said it seemed the price would break up, but from the graphic, there's the sign down that was accurately correct. So why you say that failed epically?

[ElectricMucus]

The idea is that after a period of decreasing volatility (that "triangle" on BBW) the market tends to "remember" the volatility of the prior breakout and tries to relive it.  The real target is where BBW slows down and forms a top, the price target is more of a guess of how that might happen.

So, what is (was) in this case the previous breakout. For what you said it seemed the price would break up, but from the graphic, there's the sign down that was accurately correct. So why you say that failed epically?

To be fair we had a little support at the predicted target as the fall halted for about half a day, what I didn't expect was that it didn't bounce at all. Too fiddly for me, but if you think I'm on to something feel free to use it.

[wasserman99]

we're still on course for leaving the 2013/14 bear market behind.

I hope so, too, although last developments are not for those faint of heart .

Strangely, according to their webpage, Bitfinex longs are still almost unchanged at 30M. Would be nice to get it over with with a flash crash or at least consistent decline over couple weeks.

This is likely what will happen. A massive decline in the bitcoin price will not permanently damage the bitcoin network, the bitcoin economy, nor bitcoin itself. Booms and busts are natural to happen in any economy or industry or sector and is appears that we may be going through at least a mini bust.