Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year?

[minefarmbuy]

Yea, I don't know much about mtgox but this slide has been long. I was thinking the dip would be like earlier this year but there are other factors at play it seems.

I guess we can assume diff will be dropping more not going sideways. If anything this period will add to scarcity and increase demand maybe in a month from now or q1 next year. Wonder if we'll see market increase late q1, early q2. A mirror of this year?   

[philipma1957]

where do you lookup the realtime mining difficulty, and what pools are you guys mining at?

3 sites for difficulty.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

the other two are in the thread above.

i mine btc at

ckpool.org ------------------  about 100 th partners with someone
solo.ckpool.org--------------- about  42 th just for me
mmpool.com ----------------- about 1 to 50 th varies
http://www.bravo-mining.com/ ---  some side hack sticks under 200 gh

I mine with cpus and gpus other coins.

As for toward trend in price  

nov 2013 1300
jan  2015   175    multiple reasons mt got and the  bitmain  vs spondollies price war

this drop is jan dec 2017   19990  to 3675   bitmain once again has been a large factor in it.  the details of what I know they do are bad but what i don't know is most likely true and bigger reason why it has happened.

It kind of belongs here and in the is bitmain going belly up thread.

I can list the facts we do know

I can also mention what bitmain may have done ie hashnest was so wrong on a fiscal level it is truly sad.

No transparency on what gear was really mining .

Ie s-7 rates to the shareholder and they mined with s-9

ie s -9 rates to the share holder and they mined with s-11 or s-9j

zero proof of these claims but the gear existed side by side for 2 years in the case of s-7 and s-9 that is true.

So if all the s-7's were replaced with s-9's the owner of s-7 hash would pay s-7 rates and bitmain would only have s-9's  no proof this was done.

but nothing to dispel this for 2 years.  so it should not have been done s-7's should not have been allowed to run at hash nest while s-9's ran there,

Just too easy for huge flash power charges to happen.

[buwaytress]

Hey I got a piece of the solar array with buysolar  my gear always profits.

50-50 coin split   so 100th of btc gear = 50th for no cost  the diff drop  helps the array as we are power capped at 20kwatts.

I am not the only solar miner.  if you opened a solar array  in 2016 the runup last year was great.

Now that you mentioned it, and now that prices are well below $4k... plus difficulty dropping off so much, it might be that the conditions are almost right again for a solar miner to try - of course, difficulty would still have to drop off a lot, lot more, but it's possible to imagine holding tight and mining at low cost. Bet 2020 run up would be just as great for anyone starting now as last year's was for those who started in 2016.

Looking up buysolar actually...

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

my theory is hashnest manipulated market.

[...]

This actually has a lot of merit and grounds looking back at the charts at the hash-rate and diff it now stands out that indeed there must of been machines with higher TH rating (s11) hitting the network back then the spike in diff was for me not a linear move it was very much parabolic in nature.

If this is the case and users of hash-nest have been basically scammed and this can be proved this is really going to end badly for them though saying that seems to me if your in china you can do what every the hell you want.  

I do see the similarity as you said phill regarding the Bunker Hunt Brothers and there attempting to corner the market in silver we all know how that ended up.
That I think is what Bitmain did (push up the diff & corner the market)   Only I think there plan might just have backfired on them in a big way.

[philipma1957]

all of crypto was worth around 1,200,000,000,000 last december
all of crypto is worth around    $122,967,315,733   this November.

worse then the 90% drop is  so many weaknesses have been exposed I am not sure what the recovery will be like.

Current Pace:   88.6529%  (1093 / 1232.90 expected, 139.9 behind)...
Next Difficulty:   between 5902106593776 and 6045176267615...
Next Difficulty Change:   between -11.2906% and -9.1402%...

Next difficulty
Current difficulty:   6,653,303,141,406
Next difficulty estimate:   5,995,503,655,927   -9.89%

Bitcoin Difficulty:   6,653,303,141,405
Estimated Next Difficulty:   6,125,543,936,374 (-7.93%)
Adjust time:   After 924 Blocks, About 7.3 days
Hashrate(?):   42,132,652,815 GH/s

gray line shows  an uptick



most likely due to bch and its fork getting crushed

[windjc]

Hash rate follows price. It’s a lagging indicator. Correlation is not causation in regards to bch fork and btc hash rate. The price is crashing due to technicals and the hash rate is getting crushed because the hash rate bubble only just now peaked.

[philipma1957]

 @ windjc  

the entire BTC/sha256 hash shift was called as perfectly as possible by my thread which started on OCT 4th which was the peak difficulty

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Nov 16 2018   6,653,303,141,405   -7.39%   47,626,199,005 GH/s
Nov 01 2018   7,184,404,942,701   0.02%   51,427,973,784 GH/s
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s  [I started  this thread on this day]
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s
Aug 11 2018   6,389,316,883,511   7.39%   45,736,511,764 GH/s

I like to think  my timing pretty much spot on.

We can argue defining terms all you want bro, but I pretty much called it on the exact correct day to call it.

Whether you want to blame a long list of factors (which is correct)

 Oct 4 was the turning point.  Who knows maybe this thread is the true factor of the hash slump ( a joke)

I can only say I will be buying some more coin soon.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

Panic in full swing?

Or over hype to drive miners off.

From the charts I am going to say this is not FUD but some more reality.

Video from the markets and resellers,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9Fq-uTVNio

Note anyone looking to source now get to china tech markets,

 

[philipma1957]

Good video. Touches on the new tariff for USA buyers.

Or you could be like me I ordered 80000 in gear prior to tariff but it now seems I owe 2.6 % on all that gear. This goes back to 2013 in my case. I estimate I paid on 1/2 that gear.

So 2.6 % on 40000 could be a further payment I owe.

That is about 1000 not that bad.  But. Part of the billing was done in btc. So back when btc was 400 a coin I spent 25 coins.  That is only 10 k. Of the 40000 k I owe the tax on.

So what do I do if they say  those coins are worth 4 k each or worse 20k .

At 4K x 25 = 100000 x 2.6% or 2600 at 20k a coin that is 25 x 20000= 500,000  x 2.6% that is 13000

So.
1000 most likely this bill will show up and is close to what I owe

2600 I would fight this as I know I don’t owe this

13000 I would fight this harder as this would hurt.

So for me how do i justify more purchases from China .

As I have an unknown debt 1000 to 13000.
A possible legal fight if billed wrong.
And if I buy from China now I will be subject to 27.6% on all new gear.

Take a guy like me and multiply this by 10000 since many USA guys do more business then me.  And no one buys China gear.

[sidehack]

The best part about the tariffs is, we're now punishing Americans for letting their parents let China take over global electronics manufacturing. The retaliatory tariffs China put on us are for stuff they can buy from 20 other places but we're taxing ourselves for spending 30 years telling them they should do the work instead of us. You know MAGA hats and Trump 2020 signs are all made in China.

Of course the BTC economy is being controlled by China now. We gave it to them. We paid them hand over fist to take it.

[Norm MacDonald]

There's so much brand new Bitmain Legacy S9I and J gear for sale stateside at really good prices. No reason to buy from China. My guess is all those COLO dreamers that were building out huge DC's to rent out space to cloud miners, are dumping the gear they scooped up earlier this year. I know of 3 different sources right now that I could buy over 20K various S9's brand new in boxes with PSU's for peanuts. ( Wouldn't do it if i had that kind of money)That doesn't include whats for sale up North in Canada.

The best part about the tariffs is, we're now punishing Americans for letting their parents let China take over global electronics manufacturing. The retaliatory tariffs China put on us are for stuff they can buy from 20 other places but we're taxing ourselves for spending 30 years telling them they should do the work instead of us. You know MAGA hats and Trump 2020 signs are all made in China.

Of course the BTC economy is being controlled by China now. We gave it to them. We paid them hand over fist to take it.

Amen. Dead nuts on. If it wasn't so ridiculous, it would be hilarious.

[windjc]

@ windjc  

the entire BTC/sha256 hash shift was called as perfectly as possible by my thread which started on OCT 4th which was the peak difficulty

[...]

I’m not arguing your call although you predicted consolidation not a bubble bursting. But you were right about a top.

[philipma1957]

I’m not arguing your call although you predicted consolidation not a bubble bursting. But you were right about a top.

yeah I could not see diff going up anymore.  but I did not fully see drop to 3450 coming I thought it would or could mirror ltc in terms of diff which it did.
I was not as sure about price drop to under 3500.

Sometimes it is hard to fully explain my thoughts in blog form as it can get to long and boring to read.  But we are pretty much on the same page to a certain degree. I still see more drop in diff and maybe price goes down to 2700-2900.

I am ready for a  price to down to that  number or for that matter to go back up to 5000-5500. I do not see this year with a price that high.

[philipma1957]

Still downward

Current Pace:   87.5995%  (1372 / 1566.22 expected, 194.22 behind)
Current Difficulty:   6653303141405.96XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 5831179756343 and 5905645710536
Next Difficulty Change:   between -12.3566% and -11.2374%
Previous Retarget:   November 16, 2018 at 6:43 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 1:26 PM  (in 4d 21h 40m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 6:17 PM  (in 5d 2h 31m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 18h 42m 37s and 15d 23h 33m 50s

With flat cost of solar array this is okay for me.

[alh]

Looks to me like the next change will be a definite decrease in difficulty. May essentially reset back to roughly the same difficulty as the end of July. This of course is all in the context of a big drop in BTC price (now roughly $3772).

[philipma1957]

Looks to me like the next change will be a definite decrease in difficulty. May essentially reset back to roughly the same difficulty as the end of July. This of course is all in the context of a big drop in BTC price (now roughly $3772).

yeah I am a bit torn as to what I want price to do.  but a jump to 5500  or a drop to 2900 both work

i have a .25 buy at  2903  and a .35 sell at 5497

[stompix]

Cryptothis is narrowing the estimate

Current Pace:   88.1290%  (1468 / 1665.74 expected, 197.74 behind)
Next Difficulty:   between 5866254237772 and 5917981329180
Next Difficulty Change:   between -11.8294% and -11.0520%
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 7:38 PM  (in 4d 4h 17m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 10:59 PM  (in 4d 7h 38m 9s)

We've just had another 11% but in the other direction when it comes to price so I feel tempted to say that the next period we will see an increase in difficulty, especially since it might match the shipping of the new bitmain gear. But that's again speculation, how much have they sold, how much they will send...

Still, I think we have reached the bottom.

I signed a contract for a guaranteed price of around 4.8 cents per kwh for a year last month....feeling tempted to grab a miner...

[MoparMiningLLC]

You know MAGA hats and Trump 2020 signs are all made in China.

Mine were made in America - by a local shop that sells them to locations all over the US.

[philipma1957]

price is moving up  and gray line on graph below is moving down.

Looks like we will have the biggest drop in hash since I have mined. (2012)
Maybe 8,000,000,000 gh will leave network

that is 8,000,000,000/13,500 = 592,000 s-9s

Bitcoin Difficulty:   6,653,303,141,405
Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,880,224,692,251 (-11.62%)
Adjust time:   After 464 Blocks, About 3.8 days
Hashrate(?):   38,652,732,067 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.8 minutes
3 blocks: 35.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.2 hours

[tmfp]

I see Alloscomp is predicting a massive 32.5% drop, how are the projected changes so different?
At either estimate, the improvement in earnings must be an incentive to "plug back in" if that's what miners have been doing, or do you think that the BCash scenario is still in play?
Are coins like NMC more profitable?
Sorry for the non miner questions.