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Author Topic: Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year?  (Read 4704 times)
sidehack
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November 14, 2018, 07:06:58 PM
 #61

Not specifically, but until sales pick up I'm still running off savings and my savings are worth 10% less than they were a couple hours ago (and about half what they were when I started saving). Need that for R&D on about seven new projects I finally have time for (that will have negligible effect on network diff).

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minefarmbuy
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November 14, 2018, 08:48:10 PM
 #62

I imagine diff will drop along with market unless we see the rebound happen. I'm sure Tone Vays feels proud of himself now.

Seems like a weird time for sell off, more than just manufacturers cashing out.

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sidehack
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November 14, 2018, 10:39:47 PM
 #63

Unless the rumors are true and Bitmain needs some capital?

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qctechno_isback
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November 14, 2018, 10:44:14 PM
 #64

First fire shot, BTC under 6K$ @ 5.8K$

Fake satoshi dumping BTC price
https://twitter.com/ProfFaustus/status/1062751765601361923

Bitmain will use user hashrate to support Btrash ABC
https://twitter.com/CobraBitcoin/status/1062782025629876230

If 2 Btrash chain coexist , I expect 10-20% diff contraction.
Profitability of those chains will rule BTC diff.

Brace for impact ... D-Day tomorrow

Depressed Roger here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFU1o-0oU7A
sidehack
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November 14, 2018, 11:32:27 PM
 #65

Ah, so jerks are dumping bitcoins to subsidize their bitchcoin habit.

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philipma1957
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November 15, 2018, 01:12:30 AM
 #66

Ah, so jerks are dumping bitcoins to subsidize their bitchcoin habit.

It will settle  over the next month.

I hedged  and grabbed some Bch..

So now I have BCH and BTC

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November 15, 2018, 01:26:24 AM
Last edit: November 15, 2018, 11:35:59 PM by frodocooper
 #67

It will settle  over the next month.

I hedged  and grabbed some Bch..

So now I have BCH and BTC

If you didn't saw that video already ... can't stop laughing each time.
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minefarmbuy
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November 15, 2018, 07:32:15 AM
 #68

Well I'm not a day trader and like a sure thing. Best to those risking BTC for a shitfork.

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philipma1957
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November 15, 2018, 07:29:22 PM
Last edit: November 15, 2018, 11:37:10 PM by frodocooper
 #69

Well I'm not a day trader and like a sure thing. Best to those risking BTC for a shitfork.

I will say one thing  we will have a large drop.

It is 13 days and 22 hours since last jump.  and we have 152 blocks to go.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   6,807,493,130,902 (-5.25%)

Adjust time:   After 152 Blocks, About 1.2 days

Hashrate(?):   46,213,105,966 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.0 minutes
3 blocks: 32.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   14:25 (2.9 minutes ago)

we could do a -5 to -8  here.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate

Nov 16 2018     6,800,000,000,000     -6.00        48,000,000,000 GH/s  looks like this could be correct

Nov 01 2018   7,184,404,942,701   0.02%   51,427,973,784 GH/s
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

so going as low as aug 24 numbers could happen here.

boy  the Nov 29th to Dec 1st  numbers  will be very interesting to behold

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November 15, 2018, 07:33:13 PM
 #70

Well Diff adjustments going the good way is a nice offset with the current price. If this keeps up it would be interesting to see what the next retarget period brings us.

philipma1957
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November 15, 2018, 07:35:31 PM
 #71

Well Diff adjustments going the good way is a nice offset with the current price. If this keeps up it would be interesting to see what the next retarget period brings us.

yep  a -6 now then a - of any number next jump  will be very interesting.

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philipma1957
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November 16, 2018, 11:00:43 PM
Last edit: November 17, 2018, 09:47:03 AM by frodocooper
 #72

We are counting down about an hour and six blocks left.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   6,650,727,160,163 (-7.43%)
Adjust time:   After 6 Blocks, About 1.1 hours
Hashrate(?):   45,379,080,421 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.0 minutes
3 blocks: 33.0 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours



Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate

Nov 16  2018     a -7% or more  all aways back to aug 11 to aug 24 numbers
Nov 01 2018   7,184,404,942,701   0.02%   51,427,973,784 GH/s
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s
Aug 11 2018   6,389,316,883,511   7.39%   45,736,511,764 GH/s

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TheYankeesWin!
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November 17, 2018, 12:19:24 AM
 #73

    So it was -7.39%

 I don't think it will drop again for the next 3 jumps this year.
philipma1957
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November 19, 2018, 12:48:58 AM
Last edit: November 20, 2018, 06:48:12 AM by frodocooper
Merited by suchmoon (4), Steamtyme (1)
 #74

@ yankees

Current difficulty:   6,653,303,141,406
Next difficulty estimate:   6,100,184,433,276   -8.31%
Estimated change time:   December 02, 2018 06:04
Estimated time left:   13 days

To all we are in very interesting times right now.

https://hitbtc.com/exchange/BCHABC-to-BTC

BCHABC is now 0.0504 btc

https://hitbtc.com/exchange/BCHSV-to-BTC

BCHSV is now  0.01509

this is 0.06549 btc for both or 363 usd

yet  hash  is leaving  btc to mine the  losing coins.

I have no idea what will happen  but it should be interesting to see it happen.

We could see a meltdown big time  of all 3 coins.

At mods please do not alter or delete this as the BCH/Fork or war is altering  BTC hash rate  and I really don't give two shits about either BCH fork.

I do care how BTC will get affected by this all. SO it is directly related to BTC.

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sidehack
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November 19, 2018, 07:53:27 PM
Last edit: November 19, 2018, 11:09:31 PM by sidehack
 #75

Additionally, eff those guys. BTC@4900, with the same production cost and zero decrease in utility from when it was $6300 five days ago.

EDIT - make that $4800. Double eff.

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philipma1957
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November 19, 2018, 11:20:19 PM
Last edit: November 20, 2018, 06:48:41 AM by frodocooper
 #76

got under that  4666.20 on coinbase

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November 20, 2018, 01:59:51 AM
Last edit: November 20, 2018, 06:49:02 AM by frodocooper
 #77

Obviously still quite a ways out. But we drew about 1/5 of the way through the blocks for this adjustment and its calling for a -15

The only upside to the current bch shitshow/ btc dumping is that for this whole retarget period will be encompassed by it.

I could use a couple more massive Diff decreases.

philipma1957
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November 20, 2018, 02:06:10 AM
Last edit: November 20, 2018, 06:49:18 AM by frodocooper
 #78

Obviously still quite a ways out. But we drew about 1/5 of the way through the blocks for this adjustment and its calling for a -15

The only upside to the current bch shitshow/ btc dumping is that for this whole retarget period will be encompassed by it.

I could use a couple more massive Diff decreases.

A -15 and then a -10 would be good.

But we are seeing a fundamental alteration in the game so who the fuck knows what happens next two-three jumps.

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November 21, 2018, 01:35:29 PM
Last edit: November 21, 2018, 09:44:50 PM by frodocooper
 #79

This is no longer sideways, it's all the way down

Quote
Current Pace:   89.4204%  (589 / 658.69 expected, 69.69 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.4778% and -5.5177%

If we go 10% we're hitting July levels.
And it seems hash rates are going down also for the BCH forks so there is less and less hashpower than can come back.

Is really only the price that is making miners unplug their gear or is there something at work in the background?

philipma1957
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November 21, 2018, 04:21:11 PM
Last edit: November 21, 2018, 09:46:35 PM by frodocooper
 #80

Latest Block:   550970  (23 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   89.2434%  (603 / 675.68 expected, 72.68 behind)   big number  more then -10%
Current Difficulty:   6653303141405.96
Next Difficulty:   between 5944540168368 and 6272808515394
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.6528% and -5.7189%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 6:43 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 1, 2018 at 3:19 PM  (in 10d 3h 59m 24s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 2, 2018 at 11:13 AM  (in 10d 23h 53m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 20h 36m 12s and 15d 16h 29m 54s

Next difficulty
Current difficulty:   6,653,303,141,406
Next difficulty estimate:   5,994,333,067,513   -9.90%
Estimated change time:   December 02, 2018 14:34
Estimated time left:   11 days

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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