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Author Topic: Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year?  (Read 4704 times)
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December 20, 2018, 11:45:21 PM
Last edit: December 21, 2018, 12:38:59 AM by frodocooper
 #241

Queue massive price run up, followed by 14 EH online, Diff adjustment before the ball drops lol.

I really don't want to see any of those things. Slow and steady would be nice for the foreseeable.

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December 21, 2018, 12:22:56 AM
Last edit: December 21, 2018, 12:39:22 AM by frodocooper
 #242

It no longer 6 to 8 months  lag time as we have 15,000,000,000 gh  maybe 18,000,000,000 gh off line.

if coins went to 12,000 usd in 2 days  diff would jump quickly

right right. but that would just be hash following price again.
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December 21, 2018, 12:32:08 AM
 #243

Well I can say one thing with absolute, utter certainty. Bitcoin difficulty will now, absolutely, without a doubt, " go sideways for the rest of the year ".

HA! Ya see what I did there.

very wrong bro, do you want to bet that btc difficulty will not go side ways for the rest of the year?

my bet is (btc difficulty will remain flat as hell with no change at all for the rest of the year)  Grin

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December 21, 2018, 12:32:47 AM
Last edit: December 21, 2018, 12:44:19 AM by frodocooper
 #244

right right. but that would just be hash following price again.

no

chicken first then the egg Grin Grin

not egg then the chicken  Grin Grin

My point is  having  this much decent gear offline  is a new thing  so next 2 months will be fun.

Oh  not to brag or say I told you so but

I hope the S9 stays profitable for at least that long lol just starting to making ROI now lol

but in all seriousness it seems that with so many people jumping in on mining that the difficulty is raising faster than manufacturers can produce equipment that would prove profitable.

at least that is my opinion.

It has happened before and when it did the diff dropped off for a while.

Except now there are more large farms coming on line than ever, it wont flatten out its going to continue to rise steadily. I know a few hundred megawatts worth of places going online in the next few months alone.

Forecasting has been and always will be a fools errand when it comes to this industry. There are just too many variables to break it down into simple numbers like you are doing in your post. While its true if things stay static, the outlook is bleak but I highly doubt that will stay that way for long.

I don't bother with long term except when we go low margin like now.

As I agree it is a fool's errand.

Plus game always was cheap power + cheap gear = winner.

lots of cheap gear right now  and if you have cheap power this is a good time for you.

I know you have good power prices.

I  like to go back and read page one every once in a while Roll Eyes

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December 21, 2018, 12:49:46 AM
 #245

I wouldn't mind a price run-up. Get back to the ~$6.5k equilibrium we were around for the last six months or so. Nothing crazy like, just... stable.

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December 21, 2018, 12:57:58 AM
 #246

I wouldn't mind a price run-up. Get back to the ~$6.5k equilibrium we were around for the last six months or so. Nothing crazy like, just... stable.

Maybe you get your Christmas wish.

If 2018 was a down year.

I think 2019 will be a wtf happened type year.

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December 21, 2018, 12:20:44 PM
Last edit: December 22, 2018, 02:49:55 AM by frodocooper
 #247

Maybe you get your Christmas wish.

If 2018 was a down year.

I think 2019 will be a wtf happened type year.

hahahaa...agreed and well said!!
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December 24, 2018, 02:06:01 PM
Last edit: December 25, 2018, 12:00:33 AM by frodocooper
 #248

Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,399,698,568,915 (+5.74%)

This will be 8-9% by the next epoch. Mark my words.
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December 24, 2018, 05:24:55 PM
Last edit: December 25, 2018, 12:01:02 AM by frodocooper
 #249

always hard to be sure but it is going up.

It was a nice consolidation  dropping from the peak of 57,000,000,000 ghs to the low of 33,500,000,000.  We are now close to 43,000,000,000 ghs right now real time.

BTW  if hash rises more the next adjustment will be 12-31-2018 not 1-1-2019

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December 24, 2018, 08:11:06 PM
Last edit: December 25, 2018, 12:01:28 AM by frodocooper
 #250

... BTW  if hash rises more the next adjustment will be 12-31-2018 not 1-1-2019

I KNOW!! I saw that! Ruined my proclamation!!  LOL.
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December 25, 2018, 01:21:35 AM
Last edit: December 25, 2018, 01:56:13 AM by minefarmbuy
 #251

Market shift is helping bring hash back. S9's are more profitable at higher power rates. I think at my $0.10 rate I'm "profiting" 0.13/day. Then I'm mining and holding.

I'm wondering with the talk of pulling $BTC from exchanges and hot wallets on Jan 3rd, with less $BTC in market in a few days if we'll see a price surge with the added scarcity. there are still a lot of miners who mine to a pool or directly to an exchange or hot wallet. Myself including till this summer.

edit: of course market dips when I post numbers.

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December 25, 2018, 01:40:25 PM
Last edit: December 25, 2018, 10:38:20 PM by frodocooper
 #252

gray line  with current hash is way up!

and the jump may come on dec 31 not Jan 1

Bitcoin Difficulty:   5,106,422,924,659
Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,421,368,568,694 (+6.17%)
Adjust time:   After 996 Blocks, About 6.4 days
Hashrate(?):   41,765,456,219 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.9 minutes
6 blocks: 55.8 minutes


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December 25, 2018, 01:44:54 PM
 #253

Phil  looks like bitmain's bitdeer sold a ton of hash.   I think  the trend has switched back and we will see diff go up.

The only thing that could stop diff going up is a huge price drop to the level of 2200-2400 .

That would kill bitdeer.
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December 25, 2018, 02:07:38 PM
Last edit: December 25, 2018, 10:40:13 PM by frodocooper
 #254

@ yankees  bitdeer is charging 10 cents a th maintenance.

so 1 th makes 19 cents a day  with current diff and with current price.   diff jumps very soon  and that 19 cents goes to 18 cents  if price stays at

3900   your cost is 10 cents  you earn 18 cents.
3500   your cost is 10 cents  you earn 16 cents.
3000   your cost is 10 cents  you earn 13 cents.
2500   your cost is 10 cents  you earn 11 cents
2000   your cost is 10 cents you  earn   9 cents you are in the red they shut you down

now you also paid for a contract  and it does not last long.

hash nest  you  purchased the share and did not lose it unless it went into the red.

bitdeer you purchase hash for 90 days or for 6 months and it is over.

so they have multiple deals with bitdeer that sucked people in    Buyers thought  I clear 8 cents x 100 = 8 bucks a day

the 90 day deal costs 684 for 100 th   so 90 x 8 bucks =  720   I turn 684 into 720  seems good.

well the jump  means they earn less.

they say they have s15 powered deals

they say thy have s9 powered deals

boy did not hashnest
have  s9 power deals
and s7 powered deals

let me see the s9's  or do they just runs s15s and charge you power  cost of s9's

where are the safety checks for this abuse  or potential abuse?

This type of deal  is very speculative and completely in bitmain's favor.

They charge 13 cents maintenance  for an s9
They charge 10 cents maintenance for an s15/t15

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December 26, 2018, 12:03:02 PM
Last edit: December 26, 2018, 11:24:04 PM by frodocooper
 #255

Bitdeer contract: 120days 500th

Costs: 3792 + 0.1/T/D (6000)= 9792

Income today 500t: 96usd

Income: 96 x 120 = 11.520 less pool fees

17,6% less pool fees

Why Bitmain want to share income of s15 in their farms with customers? Only one reason... they are sure the price of BTC will fall down again.
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December 26, 2018, 10:13:43 PM
Last edit: December 26, 2018, 11:24:31 PM by frodocooper
 #256

... Why Bitmain want to share income of s15 in their farms with customers? Only one reason... they are sure the price of BTC will fall down again.

Because they're still all-in on B-Trash.
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December 28, 2018, 06:02:33 PM
Last edit: December 28, 2018, 11:51:51 PM by frodocooper
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 #257

Why Bitmain want to share income of s15 in their farms with customers? Only one reason... they are sure the price of BTC will fall down again.

*BUZZER*

Incorrect. There are a number of reasons for them to do this.

The electricity prices they are charging are double what they pay.
They are still selling you a machine, through a very indirect and convoluted method, that you may not even want to retrieve at the end of your contract. They also can keep the asset on the books until this happens.
On the books, having GUARANTEED monthly income versus crypto income that can vary wildly from day to day is extremely important, especially for a company trying to forecast or go public.

There are other reasons as well, I just wanted to give a few to prevent the spread of misinformation. Remember, when you make a claim not based on facts (such as what I quoted), there is a chance someone else will read it and think it is a fact, when it is not. This type of misinformation is potentially dangerous and damaging to the community and industry as a whole.
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December 29, 2018, 12:36:44 AM
Last edit: December 29, 2018, 12:40:44 AM by frodocooper
 #258

*BUZZER*

Incorrect. There are a number of reasons for them to do this.

The electricity prices they are charging are double what they pay.
They are still selling you a machine, through a very indirect and convoluted method, that you may not even want to retrieve at the end of your contract. They also can keep the asset on the books until this happens.
On the books, having GUARANTEED monthly income versus crypto income that can vary wildly from day to day is extremely important, especially for a company trying to forecast or go public.

There are other reasons as well, I just wanted to give a few to prevent the spread of misinformation. Remember, when you make a claim not based on facts (such as what I quoted), there is a chance someone else will read it and think it is a fact, when it is not. This type of misinformation is potentially dangerous and damaging to the community and industry as a whole.

I agree with this part

4 cent power on a 50 watt a th miner the s15 cost them   50 x 24 = 1200 watts at 4 cents = 4.8 cents they charge 10 cents 10 - 4.6 = 5.2 cents.

and I think but can not prove  they use the s15 and tell you it is the s9  thus charge 13 cents a th getting

13 - 4.8 cents = 8.2 cents.

my great annoyance  is they do not address this issue
and they did not address it when they were hash nest and had the opportunity to do it with s-7 and s-9

ie a license  to steal

as for certainty that btc price drops no it is not certain but the false mining possibility allows downward pressure on profit.

this cloud mining is most certainly why hash rate jumped up. close to 8%

I really would not be vocal or complain if they gave some proof they are using s9s' for the s9 contracts they sell.

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December 30, 2018, 01:03:35 AM
Last edit: January 01, 2019, 01:03:14 AM by frodocooper
 #259

*BUZZER*

Incorrect. There are a number of reasons for them to do this.

The electricity prices they are charging are double what they pay.
They are still selling you a machine, through a very indirect and convoluted method, that you may not even want to retrieve at the end of your contract. They also can keep the asset on the books until this happens.
On the books, having GUARANTEED monthly income versus crypto income that can vary wildly from day to day is extremely important, especially for a company trying to forecast or go public.

There are other reasons as well, I just wanted to give a few to prevent the spread of misinformation. Remember, when you make a claim not based on facts (such as what I quoted), there is a chance someone else will read it and think it is a fact, when it is not. This type of misinformation is potentially dangerous and damaging to the community and industry as a whole.

All true, and let's not forget the influx of cold hard cash into a balance sheet that is choking on it's own fumes. This Bitdeer scam cash may just help keep them alive. I have serious doubts that they will execute this IPO within the time frame previously stated. No underwriter in their right mind would get involved in that given Bitmain's current travails.
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December 31, 2018, 09:43:58 PM
Last edit: January 01, 2019, 01:05:09 AM by frodocooper
 #260

the year is over So I  locked the thread.

Solid jump due to bitdeer

Dec 31 2018   5,618,595,848,853   10.03%   40,219,475,700 GH/s

thread opened on this day below

Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s

and we have  quite a drop  from 10/4/2018 to 12/31/2018

all info above is from bitcoinwisdom.com

as is the chart from below.

we may stay flat if the bump was bitdeer coming online


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