Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year?

[philipma1957]

Found this puppy using google
every btc jump ever made

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DQYQOLsB-pJWGu5e8CXF4vkxdYHEJDOyxQptBmC_030/edit#gid=0

On nov 5th 2014  we did 10.05% Jump

the whole net work had 283,116,151 Ghash a diff of 40,300,030,328

on may 31st 2015 we did a -2.50% Jump

the whole network was 340,659,562 gh  a diff of 47,589,591,154

total of 14 jumps or 28 weeks  and we did about 1.12% for those jumps

We are close to those margins  so do we do 1.12% a jump over the next 28 jumps?

could this repeat as it did between  nov 2014 and late may 2015?

Here we are  from bitcoinwisdom

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History

Date.................Difficulty.................   Change....   Hash Rate
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s
Aug 11 2018   6,389,316,883,511   7.39%   45,736,511,764 GH/s
Jul 29 2018   5,949,437,371,609   14.88%   42,587,731,568 GH/s
Jul 17 2018   5,178,671,069,072   -3.45%   37,070,371,464 GH/s

hash would be 62,369,646,904

diff would be   8,712,939,020,023

based on this projection  the s9j  would earn 41 cents a day  28 weeks from now  if price stays the same and power is 7 cents

at 8 cents it earns   9 cents a day

and it loses at 0.084 cents a day

[1715505925]

1715505925

[MoparMiningLLC]

I hope the S9 stays profitable for at least that long lol just starting to making ROI now lol

but in all seriousness it seems that with so many people jumping in on mining that the difficulty is raising faster than manufacturers can produce equipment that would prove profitable.

at least that is my opinion.

[philipma1957]

I hope the S9 stays profitable for at least that long lol just starting to making ROI now lol

but in all seriousness it seems that with so many people jumping in on mining that the difficulty is raising faster than manufacturers can produce equipment that would prove profitable.

at least that is my opinion.

well we near  the 4 cent floor  which is the average power cost for the big boys.

It has happened before and when it did the diff dropped off for a while.

[fanatic26_]

It has happened before and when it did the diff dropped off for a while.

Except now there are more large farms coming on line than ever, it wont flatten out its going to continue to rise steadily. I know a few hundred megawatts worth of places going online in the next few months alone.

[MoparMiningLLC]

well we near  the 4 cent floor  which is the average power cost for the big boys.

It has happened before and when it did the diff dropped off for a while.

and here i am just trying to get the power company to give me the transformer i need but with looking at the upcoming difficulty levels - unless miners get more efficient, I might be upside down when I am ready to offer co-location services...

[philipma1957]

Except now there are more large farms coming on line than ever, it wont flatten out its going to continue to rise steadily. I know a few hundred megawatts worth of places going online in the next few months alone.

Well  I get that it is finally going big guys only at the moment .

And since 70 watt gear exists such as the m10 growth can continue for a while.

but an m10 at 3% growth  and 70 watts a th goes red in 600 days

that is with 4 cent power.

So lets say the s11 does 55watts  40 th at 2100 watts  at 4 cents it redlines at  700 days with 3% a jump.

So realistically what happens?
I did read huge windmills in Africa doing 2 cent power was possible.

[fanatic26_]

Forecasting has been and always will be a fools errand when it comes to this industry. There are just too many variables to break it down into simple numbers like you are doing in your post. While its true if things stay static, the outlook is bleak but I highly doubt that will stay that way for long.

[philipma1957]

Forecasting has been and always will be a fools errand when it comes to this industry. There are just too many variables to break it down into simple numbers like you are doing in your post. While its true if things stay static, the outlook is bleak but I highly doubt that will stay that way for long.

I don't bother with long term except when we go low margin like now.

As I agree it is a fool's errand.

Plus game always was cheap power + cheap gear = winner.

lots of cheap gear right now  and if you have cheap power this is a good time for you.

I know you have good power prices.

[Steamtyme]

Barring any big spikes in price I'd say we are going to keep going around this ~ 4% increase we've been seeing for the last little while.

Any significant spike in price will throw that off.

I was wondering though how much hashrate will come on once it gets cold for some people. Myself my 741's are moving inside to become BTC making space heaters and I'm sure there are lots of like minded dividuals out there, who may have had machines offline.

[minefarmbuy]

Gear is at good prices so big or small will gear up. If the s9 thrives a little longer so be it. I imagine, like others do, diff will grow. Sideways only if stability of market drops but 6k pricing has endured well and is expected to continue. Since lower market will drive buying BTC, stability will continue even with a dip. What is hurting market is absorbent pricing, not as bad as 4k a unit or more but still gouging the small consumer regardless of US tariffs or not.

Canaan is driving market well. 921 looks good and expectation for 941 is that it leads the market with Bitmain studdering. As they should deliver a competitor and best price.

Difficulty up. 

[philipma1957]

very early but we are moving sideways at that 0-2% I mentioned.

there is a lot of math I do on this.

My theory involves most of the network has s-9 type gear.

And that 70 watt a th or better gear will be restricted to select buyers.

Thus causing the 0-2 %   movement for the next  6-9 months

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,454,968,648,263
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,506,500,529,318 (+0.69%)
Adjust time:   After 1302 Blocks, About 9.7 days
Hashrate(?):   49,110,005,370 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.7 minutes
3 blocks: 32.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   11:20 (2.7 minutes ago)



At mods   I am posting the ltc diff charts  as part of my modeling for btc diff please don't delete.
when price dropped we got flat the closer we come to 4-5 cent needed to earn money  the flatter we get

[TheYankeesWin!]

So based on LTC being flat  from July to Oct you think BTC will go flat?

[philipma1957]

So based on LTC being flat  from July to Oct you think BTC will go flat?

Somewhat to simple but partially correct.

BTC is more complex, but both  coins are old and have big asic gear mining.

LTC has more then 450,000 L3+

229,492GHs/.5GHs = 458,984 L3+
two 4 cent power l3+ using 1400 watts and going 1gh make 57 a month

BTC has more then 3,000,000 S9 (I have to check this)
  
49,181,847,606 GHs/14,000 GHs = 3,512,989 s9 or equivalent  
a 4 cent power s9  using 1400 watts and doing 14000gh makes 52 a month

So a guy with 4 cent power  will get close to 52-57 usd profit with 1400 watts

The biggest difference in the two coins is that BTC is now making 70 watt th gear. vs 100 watt th gear           70%     70/100

and  LTC gear is    1400 watts a gh for LT3+  with  no one offering better then  1219 watts a gh for LTC gear.   87%   1219/1400

So that factor is a different one  but still  I see a  long term sidewise move here for BTC that will mirror the LTC July to Oct move.

[philipma1957]

Hi Philip,

I love your posts and calculations.
I have access to about 200 kW of power at 5.5 cents (US) in Quebec, Canada. What gear do you suggest to invest in ?

cheap used s9's  
cheap used l3+

m10's are a long wait

see how long the innosilicon t2ti takes

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3926710.msg46690508#msg46690508
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3926710.msg46687349#msg46687349

BTW, We just released new BTC miner T2Ti with four operation modes:
25T±5%  2000W+10%
23T±5%  1880W+10%
21T±5%  1550W+10%
20T±5%  1360W+10%

Promotional price till Oct 15th

find price and time out remember they do not mine on all pools.

[philipma1957]

Thanks for your reply.

At what price S9 and L3+ should be worth the buy ?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5045054.0

I have done business with fr4nkthetank

ask him what he wants for them.  then talk to me via pm not on this thread.

I can escrow  if needed.

[philipma1957]

to all on what to buy please use  pm to ask and not here as this thread is all about diff movement.

Back to this concept I am working on.  when the network went flat in late 2014 price was pretty stable.

All these projections are based on stable price if price moons people will chase it with tons of gear.

I still see a lull coming up here time will tell.

[windjc]

If price stays the same or decreases, I think we see the hashrate go down for awhile. S9s are no longer profitable for anyone except an individual with access to very cheap power. Anyone with rent and/or employees is done at these levels.

A breakdown in price might see a hashrate that follows for a handful of months as more units go offline.

Of course a break upwards in price and hashrate will remain healthy.

[philipma1957]

Good day estimated, analyzing information about the difficulty of the BTC network and the mathematical calculation that provides this, I have found that if the miners or a good part of them change to another network, such as the BCH network, I am sure that the difficulty would decrease and Our current mining power would be more profitable for the next days. What do you think?

this adds more complexity to the general estimate.

it holds true if BCH has slightly better profit numbers.

but if BCH has vastly better then BTC would drop

and if BCH has vastly less BTC diff would jump up.

For my calculations I treat it as parallel  ie it earns close to 50-60 a month at 1400 watts
same as btc and ltc

[Steamtyme]

His scenario is correct if we are looking at October/November, I think.

That was the drastic Diff changes going on with the BitCH network. We would see everyone jump over there for a few days at a time.

It wasn't drastically noticed across the BTC network immediately but it did usually dent it enough to at least stifle massive DIFF jumps or bring about a drop. I won't lie I'm glad to see that the other network is still there and has stabilized to a point where it remains near a 1:1 for which is more profitable to mine. Only because I don't want to see that hashrate added to ours, increasing BTC difficulty with it.

[Steamtyme]

I think that doesn't really make sense.

BTC network Diff is adjusted every 2016 blocks  ~ approximately 14 days. This is to maintain an average 10 minute block time. Pretty sure BitCH coin is also doing this... can't say I've followed it much in about a year.

With that being in place it helps prevent someone with a large hash, from coin jumping and manipulating Diff in that fashion. Not that it was designed for that purpose. There are smaller alt coins that can be manipulated in that way, but that's because they don't have a large network Hashrate "protecting" it. 

You may just be referring to switching between what is most profitable. That is covered in Phil's explanation previously.

[philipma1957]

Bch was doing big swings last year but they leveled.

They have 4 ehash

Or 4000 ph

Or 4000000th or

4,000,000/14 = around 285,000 s9 Mining.

Yeah they could truly alter the rate of btc diff since lots of pools auto switch to bch if it earns more.

But. You need a big price jump to really move a lot of hash off btc.

Since btc has 3 million plus s9 and bch has under 300 thousand  ..

So if bch jumps 2x in price btc drops maybe 250 thousand s9 and bch picks up that hash.

But it reaches its own level.

[TheYankeesWin!]

So the price of coin dropped and looks like hashing dropped maybe we go negative for the next difficulty adjustment.

[sidehack]

Yeah I really should have seen that coming. Had to cash out some coin to cover bills, which historically only ever happens right after a tank. Invoices due to me are always paid right before a tank.

[philipma1957]

all info is  from

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Difficulty History

Date.................Difficulty...................Change.....Hash Rate
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s



projected for Oct 18th

about

 Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,278,295,116,188 (-2.37%)

So the sideways motion is setting up

compare to this time frame:

Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s
Aug 11 2018   6,389,316,883,511   7.39%   45,736,511,764 GH/s
Jul 29 2018   5,949,437,371,609   14.88%   42,587,731,568 GH/s
Jul 17 2018   5,178,671,069,072   -3.45%   37,070,371,464 GH/s
Jul 02 2018   5,363,678,461,481   5.64%   38,394,705,964 GH/s
Jun 19 2018   5,077,499,034,879   2.77%   36,346,153,834 GH/s
Jun 05 2018   4,940,704,885,521   14.71%   35,366,943,171 GH/s
May 24 2018   4,306,949,573,981   3.94%   30,830,345,943 GH/s

The key is the next two jumps after this one.
Along with BTC price.

if price stays at 6000 - 6500  I think we continue to drift sideways.

[philipma1957]

Almost -3%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,454,968,648,263
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,232,778,297,423 (-2.98%)
Adjust time:   After 257 Blocks, About 1.8 days
Hashrate(?):   50,468,480,940 GH/s


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate


Oct 18 2018      7,200,000,000,000  -3%  maybe


Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s

[Guinsanity]

We have to see the two next diff changes, if we have a little increase or decrease btc its following LTC just like you said.

Im expecting the same, the hashrate ATH its 56 EH, so close to 54EH actual, we dont have gears with 6 month ROI even with 0,04c (all over 12 month without including facility costs).

With my costs being 0,045 im good with that, we can keep this for two years and the moon    but lets see whats bitmain have for us in this new gear, lets see the s11 price, this is gonna guide the market.

[minefarmbuy]

Yeah I really should have seen that coming. Had to cash out some coin to cover bills, which historically only ever happens right after a tank. Invoices due to me are always paid right before a tank.

Seems to be pretty stable market wise lately. Hopefully you did ok?

I imagine that part of the business is pretty nerve racking pending market for us and you. 

What I wonder is if we get a market spike or bull run, how much difficulty will increase.

[Steamtyme]

What I wonder is if we get a market spike or bull run, how much difficulty will increase.

I'm not sure it will be the market spike or a bull run that's going to start bumping the Diff up. Having been going through the hardware that's available or about to ship out, that's where I think the next jump will come from.

Anyone upgrading to get back into better profits will also likely be increasing their overall hashrate.

Obviously if we see any rise in price that nears the ATH or even half way there; some equipment will go back online. Same as last year, but that will also drive hardware purchases through the roof again. This would likely take about 4 weeks to be felt by the network; either in waiting for gear to arrive, or people deciding if it's worth setting up old equipment.

[philipma1957]

I think  we stay flat  unless we move  to  8000 a coin overnight (a day or 2)

Of course if bitmain  does a 28th 1400 watt miner  for 900 usd I take that back.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

so above is about a 1.66% average

48155 x 1.0166 = 48891
48891 x 1.0153 = 49767
49639 x 1.0153 = 50593
50398 x 1.0153 = 51432     we are at 51416    so 1.66%  from  Aug 24 until  Oct 31 .

Next jump should be around the 31st   there is no reason for  much growth  without   a price jump over 7500

[philipma1957]

Pretty flat for now. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,182,852,313,938
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,344,820,265,442 (+2.25%)
Adjust time:   After 945 Blocks, About 6.7 days
Hashrate(?):   48,472,749,233 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   

I good chance at under 1%Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s


those bold numbers show almost the same

[philipma1957]

it is 27 ⅓ hours later then last post.

so 24 x 6 = 144
      3 x 6 =   18
     ⅓ x 6 =      2

164 blocks is pace for 0%
we were at 945
we are   at 777

168 blocks

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,182,852,313,938
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,273,786,523,959 (+1.27%)
Adjust time:   After 777 Blocks, About 5.5 days
Hashrate(?):   47,977,666,892 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   

to make note it is going to be 0-2% so still sideways

Difficulty History

Date-------------Difficulty---------------Change----   Hash Rate

Nov  1 2018      to be determined maybe 1%

Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

A chance to stay pretty flat.
note we had a flat spot late summer of 2017 maybe 4 jumps

we will now have  a six jump flat spot in a few days

[TheYankeesWin!]

So since you have come up with your thread we are  still drifting sideways.

Coins did a big dip today  down to

6200 on coinbase
6359 on bitfinex
6211 on bittrex

If we get a good drop  to 4800  all those big players will get very nervous.

A 4 cent power guy  with an s9 makes only 30 dollars a month on an s9

[philipma1957]

We could drop to the levels of

Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177      50,245,385,237 GH/s

Difficulty History

Date-------------Difficulty---------------Change----   Hash Rate

Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

But 4 cent power guys are good as low as 4000 price

If we go to 4000 price the network will shrink more
just look at litecoin

Difficulty History

Code:

Date	Difficulty	Change	Hash Rate
Oct 26 2018	8,187,466	-6.08%	234,433 GH/s  (way lower)
Oct 23 2018	8,717,916	-1.87%	249,621 GH/s
Oct 19 2018	8,884,304	-1.88%	254,385 GH/s
Oct 15 2018	9,054,556	2.22%	259,260 GH/s
Oct 12 2018	8,858,250	-1.35%	253,639 GH/s
Oct 09 2018	8,979,719	5.91%	257,117 GH/s
Oct 05 2018	8,478,980	-7.30%	242,780 GH/s
Oct 01 2018	9,146,222	2.65%	261,885 GH/s
Sep 28 2018	8,910,079	-3.47%	255,123 GH/s
Sep 24 2018	9,230,764	5.36%	264,306 GH/s
Sep 21 2018	8,760,775	0.74%	250,848 GH/s
Sep 18 2018	8,696,471	-1.17%	249,007 GH/s
Sep 14 2018	8,799,549	0.16%	251,959 GH/s
Sep 11 2018	8,785,275	1.00%	251,550 GH/s
Sep 07 2018	8,697,984	-1.38%	249,050 GH/s
Sep 04 2018	8,819,878	1.53%	252,541 GH/s
Aug 31 2018	8,686,646	-1.40%	248,726 GH/s
Aug 28 2018	8,809,843	0.66%	252,253 GH/s
Aug 24 2018	8,752,406	-0.85%	250,609 GH/s
Aug 21 2018	8,827,455	4.10%	252,758 GH/s
Aug 17 2018	8,479,765	-4.43%	242,802 GH/s
Aug 14 2018	8,873,191	-9.87%	254,067 GH/s
Aug 10 2018	9,845,135	6.81%	281,897 GH/s
Aug 06 2018	9,217,686	1.86%	263,931 GH/s
Aug 03 2018	9,049,638	-10.13%	259,119 GH/s
Jul 30 2018	10,070,201	-3.63%	288,341 GH/s
Jul 26 2018	10,449,981	9.88%	299,216 GH/s
Jul 23 2018	9,510,707	-5.10%	272,321 GH/s
Jul 20 2018	10,021,646	3.39%	286,951 GH/s
Jul 16 2018	9,693,242	4.13%	277,548 GH/s
Jul 13 2018	9,308,365	-3.88%	266,527 GH/s
Jul 09 2018	9,683,851	4.89%	277,279 GH/s
Jul 06 2018	9,232,469	-6.46%	264,354 GH/s
Jul 02 2018	9,869,969	0.99%	282,608 GH/s
Jun 29 2018	9,773,635	-6.54%	279,850 GH/s
Jun 25 2018	10,457,237	-0.93%	299,423 GH/s
Jun 21 2018	10,554,914	-1.22%	302,220 GH/s
Jun 18 2018	10,684,873	-2.90%	305,941 GH/s
Jun 14 2018	11,003,971	0.35%	315,078 GH/s  (peak number)

please note most all my charts and numbers come from

https://bitcoinwisdom.com

I give them credit for the numbers but my  ideas from these numbers belong to me.

Look at all the - numbers lite coin  has had  since June

[Steamtyme]

I've been looking for some more information on the Bitmain firmware for OAB.

So far what I've seen is improved efficiency at a  lower hashrate (-6% I think). So I doubt it will contribute overall to an increase in network hash. Before the dip in price I expected some people to fire up their S9's that are kicking around, some may still, but not enough to make a significant impact.

I still think the flat idea will hold true until these batches of efficient gear hit the market and have a few weeks of hashing in.

[philipma1957]

I've been looking for some more information on the Bitmain firmware for OAB.

So far what I've seen is improved efficiency at a  lower hashrate (-6% I think). So I doubt it will contribute overall to an increase in network hash. Before the dip in price I expected some people to fire up their S9's that are kicking around, some may still, but not enough to make a significant impact.

I still think the flat idea will hold true until these batches of efficient gear hit the market and have a few weeks of hashing in.

Yeah  we look to be -1%   at the moment  but to me the next jump may be a -3% fall.  Making us close to the Aug 24 numbers on bitcoinwisdom

"Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s"    we may go this low and that would be nice.

[philipma1957]

We are 1 block from next jump.

for a moment we had a shot at 0.00 instead  we will be negative.

we needed to hit the last block at 4:37 pm EST  to have been 0.00%

So  pretty good since august of this year.

[Biffa]

So almost 0%

[windjc]

New projected difficulty starting at close to 7.4%. There's been a jump.

[rifleman74]

New projected difficulty starting at close to 7.4%. There's been a jump.

huh?

Next Difficulty Estimated
(+0.17%) 7.20 T
Date to Next Difficulty
12 Days 11 Hours

[windjc]

huh?

Next Difficulty Estimated
(+0.17%) 7.20 T
Date to Next Difficulty
12 Days 11 Hours

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,715,793,097,066 (+7.40%)
Adjust time:   After 1849 Blocks, About 12.5 days
Hashrate(?):   55,648,940,750 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.2 minutes

[philipma1957]

New projected difficulty starting at close to 7.4%. There's been a jump.

Wait the first week as

After a week it is more accurate.

We made about 180 blocks in 30 hours. That is more or less 0%

The jump was around 4:45 pm on the first of nov.

It is about 11:45 pm on the second of nov

That is 31 hours .

2016
1837
_______
179

179/6 = 29 hours fifty minutes.

And that would mean we are negative.

We did have a spike yesterday and it made us really close to 0%
For the jump yesterday.

If you look are aug 24 to nov 1 we are pretty flat.

[philipma1957]

this is the last block from last jump

548351 (Main Chain)   2018-11-01 20:33:26   0000000000000000001ac75bed7eb6169255893f99de28f24e3e0e57b6f7db7b   1,240.59

this is the first block from this jump

548352 (Main Chain)   2018-11-01 20:54:16   00000000000000000013f4778796947335e3ab173b555259675be50cdfe875fa   1,361.62

here we are today

548615 (Main Chain)   2018-11-03 16:24:50   Unknown   0000000000000000000e79a80509101379eff1ee519658e28fe2cfaccdc69524   1,287.95

here is
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,706,585,183,127 (+7.27%)
Adjust time:   After 1754 Blocks, About 11.7 days
Hashrate(?):   55,306,604,890 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:   

and

  2016
-1754
262 blocks in just about 44 hours

44 x 6 = 264  0 %   so right now  at this moment we are close to 0%

but we did see a big spike  right before  last jump  about 180 blocks were made vs 144  so there is gear held offline or  variance.  still  

Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s  to

Nov 01 2018   7,184,404,942,701   0.02%   51,427,973,784 GH/s

is pretty much side ways

[qctechno_isback]

Only hope for BTC diff to stay low is BCH to succeed hard fork and drain mining power with it.
A more profitable SHA256 coin should keep BTC diff reasonable.

Getting Bitmain on their knee is the end goal for mining business as I see it by keeping a low BTC value.

[philipma1957]

Only hope for BTC diff to stay low is BCH to succeed hard fork and drain mining power with it.
A more profitable SHA256 coin should keep BTC diff reasonable.

Getting Bitmain on their knee is the end goal for mining business as I see it by keeping a low BTC value.

what are you talking about?

BCH had a hard fork more then a year ago.

As per my thread title this does not apply.

This thread is until the end of the year.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,753,301,563,728 (+7.92%)  we are at -0.1% this prediction
Adjust time:   After 1375 Blocks, About 9.2 days
Hashrate(?):   51,037,931,916 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate

Nov 15 2018   about  -0.1%

Nov 01 2018   7,184,404,942,701   0.02%   51,427,973,784 GH/s
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

so far we are pretty flat  with under 2 months to go.

Now bitmain has announced  the S15 and T15

maybe good gear it may change  curve upwards

[philipma1957]

Anticipating has been and dependably will be a dolts errand with regards to this industry. There are simply such a large number of factors to separate it into basic numbers like you are doing in your post. While its actual if things remain static, the standpoint is somber however I exceptionally question that will remain as such for long.

Duh Jan 1 is not long.

So If I picked up on a august 24th to Jan 1 trend  good.

BTW  if diff jumps through the roof so what.

there are multiple way to make money .

Finding a side movement in diff lasting August 24  to Nov 15  has real money value to some of us.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,734,491,307,782 (+7.66%)  
Adjust time:   After 1354 Blocks, About 9.1 days
Hashrate(?):   50,040,282,613 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.3 minutes
Updated:   

it is 4 days and 17 hours into this jump

4 x 144 = 576
6 x 17 =  102

total   =  678 to be at 0%

2016
1354

662  is where we are at   so we are -2.23%
yet the charts read +7.66%

so while you may think the numbers are simple many don't know that  real time we are -2.23%  vs bitcoinwisdom's future number of +7.66%

so there is a good chance that the sideways movement will continue to Nov 15th on a minimum.

[qctechno_isback]

Bitcoin Cash fork to be forked again
https://www.investinblockchain.com/bch-hard-fork-supported-by-coinbase-binance/

More SHA256 Coins to mine, more hashrate distributions over blockchain networks
They all need SHA256 hashpower.

It can explain current BTC diff with BTC value.
If others chains are more profitable then miners follow.

[philipma1957]

Bitcoin Cash fork to be forked again
https://www.investinblockchain.com/bch-hard-fork-supported-by-coinbase-binance/

More SHA256 Coins to mine, more hashrate distributions over blockchain networks
They all need SHA256 hashpower.

It can explain current BTC diff with BTC value.
If others chains are more profitable then miners follow.

well bch is up to 620 a coin.

 it is a reason to keep btc diff low

and could be interesting to see what happens if BCH moves to 1000

we had crazy hash swings last year when bch took off.

[stompix]

I've stopped following bitcoinwisdom a while ago, they really have some weird estimations
Bitcoinity is showing a totally different picture:

Current difficulty:   7,184,404,942,702
Next difficulty estimate:   7,160,506,972,780   -0.33%

So does cryptothis

Latest Block:   549136  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   96.9339%  (785 / 809.83 expected, 24.83 behind)
Current Difficulty:   7184404942701.792XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 6982085294311 and 7056173928059
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.8161% and -1.7849%

[philipma1957]

The estimates don’t work well on bitcoinwisdom but. The charts with redline blue line gray line are decent.

And the raw numbers are accurate.

We started this jump on the first of nov at about 4:35 pm eastern time. So we are five days and 17 hours in.

That is

5 x 144 = 720
6 x 17 =.  102

So we need to have made 822 blocks right now to be zero.

So 2016 - 1220 = 796 made so 796/822=  0.968-1.000= - 3.32%. Real time. Not + 7

[Steamtyme]

I've stopped following bitcoinwisdom a while ago, they really have some weird estimations

The estimates don’t work well on bitcoinwisdom but. The charts with redline blue line gray line are decent.

Yeah someone put me onto fork.lol about a year ago. Usually where I go if I'm bored andd feel like seeing what's been going on lately. Mostly because I've learned to accept Diff is going to do what Diff is going to do; So I just lay there and take it accept it. Currently showing - 12% but we are still more than half way there and I really don't trust them until around block 1500 ~75%, as this is usually enough data to get a close to accurate result barring any large changes in network hashrate.

Lately however it has been nice to check because as Phil has shown it's become significantly less depressing a figure for the moment.


I remember discussing the benefit of BCH for miners in February I think. I'd have to check a little more but without the BCH network we would be about 10% higher on the Difficulty. So the farms and big guys trying to float the network and battling over there own forks can keep it up.

[stompix]

The estimates don’t work well on bitcoinwisdom but. The charts with redline blue line gray line are decent.

[...]

So 2016 - 1220 = 796 made so 796/822=  0.968-1.000= - 3.32%. Real time. Not + 7

Yeah, timestamps are far more accurate on what might happen that the percentage bitcoinwisdom comes up, they are down to 5.29% today, following the downtrend but still positive. I don't know how and what they are doing but they should change something

Anyhow, a 5-7% decrease would match my expectation if we take into consideration the increase in BCH price, thus migration of hashing power and nothing major coming back online. There still could be the possibility of bitmain decoupling s9s and bringing s15 online but...I doubt they would do it this way, and not try to keep as much hashing power online all the time.

A jump by late November?

[philipma1957]

Yeah, timestamps are far more accurate on what might happen that the percentage bitcoinwisdom comes up, they are down to 5.29% today, following the downtrend but still positive. I don't know how and what they are doing but they should change something

Anyhow, a 5-7% decrease would match my expectation if we take into consideration the increase in BCH price, thus migration of hashing power and nothing major coming back online. There still could be the possibility of bitmain decoupling s9s and brining s15 online but...I doubt they would do it this way, and not try to keep as much hashing power online all the time.

A jump by late November?

My guess is still flat or close to flat the need to move upwards in diff is held back by a lot of factors.

A few years ago when I ran the diff contests thread.  "  heinz57 "  can't remember his name came up with the idea of hash spike showing future numbers.  I coined a clever name for it but it was his idea.
High spike in chart below shows network to be over 57,000,000,000 gh

not the current  number of
Hashrate(?):   46,724,750,622 GH/s



So  this spike could mean we move to 57,000,000,000 in under 2 months.

with bitmain's new killer machine maybe so. time will tell

but the break from  august 24th to Nov 15 will have been nice.

[qctechno_isback]

Current BTC Hashrate 45,196,820,818 GH/s

Btrash fork sucking hashrate
https://twitter.com/CobraBitcoin/status/1061350647595974656

[philipma1957]

Current BTC Hashrate 45,196,820,818 GH/s

Btrash fork sucking hashrate
https://twitter.com/CobraBitcoin/status/1061350647595974656

yeah a lot of mining on BCH  loading up for the new fork.

New fork is the 15th of NOV.

So we will have a change after fork.

we will drop 2-4% this jump
we will go under sept 7 numbers

Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701

Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,333,650,225,214 (+2.08%)

Adjust time:   After 713 Blocks, About 5.4 days
Hashrate(?):   45,970,633,292 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.9 minutes
3 blocks: 32.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   

look at chart and note the red line is negative,but that  there is a 44,000,000,000 to 57,000,000,000 flow in hash rate due to BCH/new fork

[qctechno_isback]

https://twitter.com/redtheminer/status/1061864690198863874

mining facilities in Yunnan province are facing another round of compliance check. Failure to do so will result in power cutoff from the grid.

[stompix]

yeah a lot of mining on BCH  loading up for the new fork.

New fork is the 15th of NOV.

So we will have a change after fork.

we will drop 2-4% this jump
we will go under sept 7 numbers

[...]

The retarget happens just after the fork, probably Friday night (European time)
We have right now a max estimate drop of 6.5%, and the price is still going down for bch, doubt the combined price of both versions will somehow manage to raise revenue enough to compensate for the last drops so a part of the hashrate will comeback after their stupid war will be over but nothign spectacular (i think)

Not impressed with the new s15 and t15, so whoever bought some cheap s9 or t2 can still breathe relieved for a while.
If I were to make a bet I would say there is no chance we see something over 10-15% till the end of the year. But I suck at predicting things.

[Steamtyme]

The retarget happens just after the fork, probably Friday night (European time)

The next retarget period will be a decent indication of how much hashrate was just mining BCH to build up a bag before the fork, just with the timing to see who comes back to BTC right away. A lot of Hash will stay there from the parties with loads of power and competing interests.


I was wondering do we have a decent idea right now of how much of the spikes and valleys on the hashrate charts is the combined variance of miners. Right now it's hard to figure with large amounts of hash shifting with the BCH fork.

I was watching a convo somewhere about someone speculating on their theory about Diff rising. It led me to something that I hadn't thought about with Diff. The effects corm with a pretty significant lag factor. When things start to go good or drive up interest to put more hashpower online, it could take a month maybe more for the Diff to react and increase, the same can be said about the decline. This person was talking about the rises that had been going on for a 6 month period this year. When I started to look at it, those were just the lingering increases from the Fomo late last year and the subsequent cooling period where miners where still flying off the shelves into January.

Then here we are where Diff has been essentially stale feeling no pull in one direction or another. Now a few months from now I think we are going to see the pull upward from the New gear which is 1 of the 2 factors I thought would cause a move.

[philipma1957]

Diff trails prices.  So staying flat makes sense since price is flat for a while now.

For sure gear/diff caught up to prices of last December .  So diff will be flat for a while longer due to flat prices if that theory is correct.

April 1 we were are 6700 price
Nov 12 we are at  6400 price

So that was 7 flat months

If you want to use the August 24 number I have been tracking from we stay flat till March .

But two other factors are bch/fork and of course newer 60 -70 watt a th gear.

I was think flat till Jan 1 but maybe not.

[sidehack]

So whose idea was it to tank the exchange again?

[Steamtyme]

It was obviously Phil.

To keep difficulty flat he had to tank the price to offset the new efficient hardware being launched.

Unless you are getting ready to pay bills today/tomorrow.

[sidehack]

Not specifically, but until sales pick up I'm still running off savings and my savings are worth 10% less than they were a couple hours ago (and about half what they were when I started saving). Need that for R&D on about seven new projects I finally have time for (that will have negligible effect on network diff).

[minefarmbuy]

I imagine diff will drop along with market unless we see the rebound happen. I'm sure Tone Vays feels proud of himself now.

Seems like a weird time for sell off, more than just manufacturers cashing out.

[sidehack]

Unless the rumors are true and Bitmain needs some capital?

[qctechno_isback]

First fire shot, BTC under 6K$ @ 5.8K$

Fake satoshi dumping BTC price
https://twitter.com/ProfFaustus/status/1062751765601361923

Bitmain will use user hashrate to support Btrash ABC
https://twitter.com/CobraBitcoin/status/1062782025629876230

If 2 Btrash chain coexist , I expect 10-20% diff contraction.
Profitability of those chains will rule BTC diff.

Brace for impact ... D-Day tomorrow

Depressed Roger here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFU1o-0oU7A

[sidehack]

Ah, so jerks are dumping bitcoins to subsidize their bitchcoin habit.

[philipma1957]

Ah, so jerks are dumping bitcoins to subsidize their bitchcoin habit.

It will settle  over the next month.

I hedged  and grabbed some Bch..

So now I have BCH and BTC

[qctechno_isback]

It will settle  over the next month.

I hedged  and grabbed some Bch..

So now I have BCH and BTC

If you didn't saw that video already ... can't stop laughing each time.
Bitcoin Cash Behind the Scene
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=16&v=01CegebttEU

[minefarmbuy]

Well I'm not a day trader and like a sure thing. Best to those risking BTC for a shitfork.

[philipma1957]

Well I'm not a day trader and like a sure thing. Best to those risking BTC for a shitfork.

I will say one thing  we will have a large drop.

It is 13 days and 22 hours since last jump.  and we have 152 blocks to go.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   6,807,493,130,902 (-5.25%)

Adjust time:   After 152 Blocks, About 1.2 days

Hashrate(?):   46,213,105,966 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.0 minutes
3 blocks: 32.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   14:25 (2.9 minutes ago)

we could do a -5 to -8  here.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate

Nov 16 2018     6,800,000,000,000     -6.00        48,000,000,000 GH/s  looks like this could be correct

Nov 01 2018   7,184,404,942,701   0.02%   51,427,973,784 GH/s
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

so going as low as aug 24 numbers could happen here.

boy  the Nov 29th to Dec 1st  numbers  will be very interesting to behold

[Steamtyme]

Well Diff adjustments going the good way is a nice offset with the current price. If this keeps up it would be interesting to see what the next retarget period brings us.

[philipma1957]

Well Diff adjustments going the good way is a nice offset with the current price. If this keeps up it would be interesting to see what the next retarget period brings us.

yep  a -6 now then a - of any number next jump  will be very interesting.

[philipma1957]

We are counting down about an hour and six blocks left.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   6,650,727,160,163 (-7.43%)
Adjust time:   After 6 Blocks, About 1.1 hours
Hashrate(?):   45,379,080,421 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.0 minutes
3 blocks: 33.0 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours



Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate

Nov 16  2018     a -7% or more  all aways back to aug 11 to aug 24 numbers
Nov 01 2018   7,184,404,942,701   0.02%   51,427,973,784 GH/s
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s
Aug 11 2018   6,389,316,883,511   7.39%   45,736,511,764 GH/s

[TheYankeesWin!]

    So it was -7.39%

 I don't think it will drop again for the next 3 jumps this year.

[philipma1957]

@ yankees

Current difficulty:   6,653,303,141,406
Next difficulty estimate:   6,100,184,433,276   -8.31%
Estimated change time:   December 02, 2018 06:04
Estimated time left:   13 days

To all we are in very interesting times right now.

https://hitbtc.com/exchange/BCHABC-to-BTC

BCHABC is now 0.0504 btc

https://hitbtc.com/exchange/BCHSV-to-BTC

BCHSV is now  0.01509

this is 0.06549 btc for both or 363 usd

yet  hash  is leaving  btc to mine the  losing coins.

I have no idea what will happen  but it should be interesting to see it happen.

We could see a meltdown big time  of all 3 coins.

At mods please do not alter or delete this as the BCH/Fork or war is altering  BTC hash rate  and I really don't give two shits about either BCH fork.

I do care how BTC will get affected by this all. SO it is directly related to BTC.

[sidehack]

Additionally, eff those guys. BTC@4900, with the same production cost and zero decrease in utility from when it was $6300 five days ago.

EDIT - make that $4800. Double eff.

[philipma1957]

got under that  4666.20 on coinbase

[Steamtyme]

Obviously still quite a ways out. But we drew about 1/5 of the way through the blocks for this adjustment and its calling for a -15

The only upside to the current bch shitshow/ btc dumping is that for this whole retarget period will be encompassed by it.

I could use a couple more massive Diff decreases.

[philipma1957]

Obviously still quite a ways out. But we drew about 1/5 of the way through the blocks for this adjustment and its calling for a -15

The only upside to the current bch shitshow/ btc dumping is that for this whole retarget period will be encompassed by it.

I could use a couple more massive Diff decreases.

A -15 and then a -10 would be good.

But we are seeing a fundamental alteration in the game so who the fuck knows what happens next two-three jumps.

[stompix]

This is no longer sideways, it's all the way down

Current Pace:   89.4204%  (589 / 658.69 expected, 69.69 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.4778% and -5.5177%

If we go 10% we're hitting July levels.
And it seems hash rates are going down also for the BCH forks so there is less and less hashpower than can come back.

Is really only the price that is making miners unplug their gear or is there something at work in the background?

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   550970  (23 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   89.2434%  (603 / 675.68 expected, 72.68 behind)   big number  more then -10%
Current Difficulty:   6653303141405.96
Next Difficulty:   between 5944540168368 and 6272808515394
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.6528% and -5.7189%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 6:43 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 1, 2018 at 3:19 PM  (in 10d 3h 59m 24s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 2, 2018 at 11:13 AM  (in 10d 23h 53m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 20h 36m 12s and 15d 16h 29m 54s

Next difficulty
Current difficulty:   6,653,303,141,406
Next difficulty estimate:   5,994,333,067,513   -9.90%
Estimated change time:   December 02, 2018 14:34
Estimated time left:   11 days

[qctechno_isback]

#Hashwar had first white flag raised yesterday

https://coingeek.com/plan-end-worlds-first-bitcoin-hash-election/
https://twitter.com/JiangZhuoer/status/1064874870704504832
https://cash.coin.dance/

BTC Bottomed at 4400$USD on Poloniex.

BAB and BSV will continue to drain hashrate

Trashing unprofitable miners in China
https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1064878600594305025

Business going bankrupt
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-mining-firm-giga-watt-declares-bankruptcy-owing-millions

Only good news :

BTC Retarget -24%
https://fork.lol/pow/retarget

[philipma1957]

[...]

[...]

numbers are still very low from above two sites

-7 to -11.6

-10.24

bitcoinwisdom below

Bitcoin Difficulty:   6,653,303,141,405
Estimated Next Difficulty:   6,250,646,273,917 (-6.05%)
Adjust time:   After 1317 Blocks, About 10.1 days

Hashrate(?):   39,983,904,950 GH/s  this is more like  20%

Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.1 minutes
3 blocks: 33.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   7:15 (4.6 minutes ago)

[stompix]

Only good news :

BTC Retarget -24%
https://fork.lol/pow/retarget

bitcoinwisdom below

Hashrate(?):   39,983,904,950 GH/s  this is more like  20%

I'm probably 99 times wrong out of 100 when trying to predict stuff but no way a 20% drop will happen if the price will stay at least the same or in a 5% range from 4500. No way!
10exa is something close to half a million s9, I doubt there is that much older and more inefficient gear still mining, and right now it makes no sense to unplug s9s if you can get 4-5 cents per kwh.

Something totally wrong is going on behind the curtains

[rifleman74]

I'm probably 99 times wrong out of 100 when trying to predict stuff but no way a 20% drop will happen if the price will stay at least the same or in a 5% range from 4500. No way!
10exa is something close to half a million s9, I doubt there is that much older and more inefficient gear still mining, and right now it makes no sense to unplug s9s if you can get 4-5 cents per kwh.

Something totally wrong is going on behind the curtains

There's a lot of people who could try to scrape by on their mining, but now with BTC below 4500, they've pulled the plug.

[philipma1957]

everyone above 7 cents is dead.

Now bitmain had a huge Hashnest operation which was around 8cents for power and said it was s9's.
I think they simply shut that down this would cause the drop.
I also think they would ask quite a bit for the miner to get shipped to you.  So you will say no then
they could simple mine  the gear now  and if they are 4 cent power they make money on it.

[Philopolymath]

I'm sure I'm not the only one that mines at a loss... I did so in 2013/14 when BTC was $300-600 and waited years for the spike..
Now we are desperate to get as much as we  can before the 2020 half reward drop. And just as hopeful for another spike.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

Loving the drop in diff though my concern is if the hashrate continues to decline on BTC are we not running the risk of allowing  2nd chain to catch up in Log2(POW)  if an attacker has been "covert" building upon a 2nd secret chain could this not allow for a much easier 51% attack in the future if things continue to decline. 

While it might be a good thing for some in the short term the drop in hash and diff I think there is something we are missing here.

[philipma1957]

Loving the drop in diff though my concern is if the hashrate continues to decline on BTC are we not running the risk of allowing  2nd chain to catch up in Log2(POW)  if an attacker has been "covert" building upon a 2nd secret chain could this not allow for a much easier 51% attack in the future if things continue to decline.  

While it might be a good thing for some in the short term the drop in hash and diff I think there is something we are missing here.

my theory is hashnest manipulated market.

quite a bit.

they loaded it with s11's (they are real)

back in feb/march

still charged  all s9 owners of hashnest  power fees based on s9 power cost say 100 watts a th.  not the 70 watts  a th the s11 uses.

they then sold the s9s as s9i's  with pcb dipped and cleaned  and new fans.  this is how they sold all those cheapo s9i's and s9j's  for months on end.

so  from march to nov 1  they made  extra on the hashnest  gear and turned over the s9's  they were fully roi'd

has to be 10 to 20 percent of the network.

now price is crashing and they are offloading s11's  but not to the states

some s11 photos

[TheYankeesWin!]

I do not think they are that smart phil.

if they were it would now mean the hashnest is filled with s11's and since the s-9's dont make money all the s9 hashnest shares are dead.

It means they have tons of idle s11's  they could point to the bch fork side they like.

So I see that BTC hashrate did the drop  but what  is the hashrate for each BCH fork

if you are correct  all three coins need to be close to 65eh in hash

so:

 BTC is 40 eh   coin is 4200
 BCH is   4 eh   coin is  200
 BCH/fork is

[buwaytress]

I'm sure I'm not the only one that mines at a loss... I did so in 2013/14 when BTC was $300-600 and waited years for the spike..
Now we are desperate to get as much as we  can before the 2020 half reward drop. And just as hopeful for another spike.

This was my suspicion too. Some as we've seen have already thrown in the towel, but there's sure to be others who're willing and financially able to dig in and mine, counting on a significant price recovery not too far away. Those patient in the past were rewarded, it's not just the buyers and holders who're the permabulls, buying and holding and gritting their teeth. Sure to be a handful of hardcore miners in that camp.

[philipma1957]

This was my suspicion too. Some as we've seen have already thrown in the towel, but there's sure to be others who're willing and financially able to dig in and mine, counting on a significant price recovery not too far away. Those patient in the past were rewarded, it's not just the buyers and holders who're the permabulls, buying and holding and gritting their teeth. Sure to be a handful of hardcore miners in that camp.

Hey I got a piece of the solar array with buysolar  my gear always profits.

50-50 coin split   so 100th of btc gear = 50th for no cost  the diff drop  helps the array as we are power capped at 20kwatts.

I am not the only solar miner.  if you opened a solar array  in 2016 the runup last year was great.

[alh]

For what it's worth, another step down in BTC price. Last quote from coinbase: $3757.

[philipma1957]

For what it's worth, another step down in BTC price. Last quote from coinbase: $3757.

nice I will buy some.



edit I just purchased some at 3675.

I have more cash set aside for next drop

[sidehack]

MOTHERF$@&

Would be a freakin' marvellous time to buy if I didn't need to *increase* liquid capital right now.

[philipma1957]

MOTHERF$@&

Would be a freakin' marvellous time to buy if I didn't need to *increase* liquid capital right now.

Diff is looking to go down a lot

you have anything mining for yourself?

[sidehack]

Phil - not really, no. I've got an S9 I cobbled together from salvage parts and something like a dozen S7 I'll be lighting up for heat soon but that's about it.

[minefarmbuy]

I've been buying more than my usual "latte" money worth the last week or so. So this is nice. I may have to shut the "heaters" off though cause my gas furnace will be cheaper to run if this market continues trend.

Sidehack I thought you set up an account with us? Our financial guy is pretty good at at least securing a decent APY for shitty fiat liquidity.

[sidehack]

MFB, I gave y'all some money for the chips sale y'all brokered but that's the only "account" I might have. As for financial anything else, I abhor debt so I won't borrow except in emergencies and have never endorsed trading for profit. Call me an optimist but the bulk of my savings for the last 15 months or so have been in BTC. Needless to say I've been taking a beating lately.

But hey, if diff keeps dropping maybe I'll get some good heater-mining in. The apartment and shop are all electric heat.

[minefarmbuy]

Yea, I'd heat with the asics for sure. I don't know much about the accounting. I know for people or companies who want those first batch releases will have us store something and they earn the interest off it. Though a local credit union should be able to do the same. For me though it's not BTC and my three jobs doesn't mean I have much to bank anyway.

What are more of the thoughts causing the dump? Really just a lot of people giving up? I thought BTC's been thought cycles similar already.

[sidehack]

Has it ever been on a downward trend this long though? It's been pretty much dropping steadily the entire year. The last major dumps I can think of were the bottom falling out of media hype bubbles, and the MtGox fiasco which revealed a whole lot of market manipulation and outright lies.

[minefarmbuy]

Yea, I don't know much about mtgox but this slide has been long. I was thinking the dip would be like earlier this year but there are other factors at play it seems.

I guess we can assume diff will be dropping more not going sideways. If anything this period will add to scarcity and increase demand maybe in a month from now or q1 next year. Wonder if we'll see market increase late q1, early q2. A mirror of this year?   

[philipma1957]

where do you lookup the realtime mining difficulty, and what pools are you guys mining at?

3 sites for difficulty.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

the other two are in the thread above.

i mine btc at

ckpool.org ------------------  about 100 th partners with someone
solo.ckpool.org--------------- about  42 th just for me
mmpool.com ----------------- about 1 to 50 th varies
http://www.bravo-mining.com/ ---  some side hack sticks under 200 gh

I mine with cpus and gpus other coins.

As for toward trend in price  

nov 2013 1300
jan  2015   175    multiple reasons mt got and the  bitmain  vs spondollies price war

this drop is jan dec 2017   19990  to 3675   bitmain once again has been a large factor in it.  the details of what I know they do are bad but what i don't know is most likely true and bigger reason why it has happened.

It kind of belongs here and in the is bitmain going belly up thread.

I can list the facts we do know

I can also mention what bitmain may have done ie hashnest was so wrong on a fiscal level it is truly sad.

No transparency on what gear was really mining .

Ie s-7 rates to the shareholder and they mined with s-9

ie s -9 rates to the share holder and they mined with s-11 or s-9j

zero proof of these claims but the gear existed side by side for 2 years in the case of s-7 and s-9 that is true.

So if all the s-7's were replaced with s-9's the owner of s-7 hash would pay s-7 rates and bitmain would only have s-9's  no proof this was done.

but nothing to dispel this for 2 years.  so it should not have been done s-7's should not have been allowed to run at hash nest while s-9's ran there,

Just too easy for huge flash power charges to happen.

[buwaytress]

Hey I got a piece of the solar array with buysolar  my gear always profits.

50-50 coin split   so 100th of btc gear = 50th for no cost  the diff drop  helps the array as we are power capped at 20kwatts.

I am not the only solar miner.  if you opened a solar array  in 2016 the runup last year was great.

Now that you mentioned it, and now that prices are well below $4k... plus difficulty dropping off so much, it might be that the conditions are almost right again for a solar miner to try - of course, difficulty would still have to drop off a lot, lot more, but it's possible to imagine holding tight and mining at low cost. Bet 2020 run up would be just as great for anyone starting now as last year's was for those who started in 2016.

Looking up buysolar actually...

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

my theory is hashnest manipulated market.

[...]

This actually has a lot of merit and grounds looking back at the charts at the hash-rate and diff it now stands out that indeed there must of been machines with higher TH rating (s11) hitting the network back then the spike in diff was for me not a linear move it was very much parabolic in nature.

If this is the case and users of hash-nest have been basically scammed and this can be proved this is really going to end badly for them though saying that seems to me if your in china you can do what every the hell you want.  

I do see the similarity as you said phill regarding the Bunker Hunt Brothers and there attempting to corner the market in silver we all know how that ended up.
That I think is what Bitmain did (push up the diff & corner the market)   Only I think there plan might just have backfired on them in a big way.

[philipma1957]

all of crypto was worth around 1,200,000,000,000 last december
all of crypto is worth around    $122,967,315,733   this November.

worse then the 90% drop is  so many weaknesses have been exposed I am not sure what the recovery will be like.

Current Pace:   88.6529%  (1093 / 1232.90 expected, 139.9 behind)...
Next Difficulty:   between 5902106593776 and 6045176267615...
Next Difficulty Change:   between -11.2906% and -9.1402%...

Next difficulty
Current difficulty:   6,653,303,141,406
Next difficulty estimate:   5,995,503,655,927   -9.89%

Bitcoin Difficulty:   6,653,303,141,405
Estimated Next Difficulty:   6,125,543,936,374 (-7.93%)
Adjust time:   After 924 Blocks, About 7.3 days
Hashrate(?):   42,132,652,815 GH/s

gray line shows  an uptick



most likely due to bch and its fork getting crushed

[windjc]

Hash rate follows price. It’s a lagging indicator. Correlation is not causation in regards to bch fork and btc hash rate. The price is crashing due to technicals and the hash rate is getting crushed because the hash rate bubble only just now peaked.

[philipma1957]

 @ windjc  

the entire BTC/sha256 hash shift was called as perfectly as possible by my thread which started on OCT 4th which was the peak difficulty

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Nov 16 2018   6,653,303,141,405   -7.39%   47,626,199,005 GH/s
Nov 01 2018   7,184,404,942,701   0.02%   51,427,973,784 GH/s
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s  [I started  this thread on this day]
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s
Aug 11 2018   6,389,316,883,511   7.39%   45,736,511,764 GH/s

I like to think  my timing pretty much spot on.

We can argue defining terms all you want bro, but I pretty much called it on the exact correct day to call it.

Whether you want to blame a long list of factors (which is correct)

 Oct 4 was the turning point.  Who knows maybe this thread is the true factor of the hash slump ( a joke)

I can only say I will be buying some more coin soon.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

Panic in full swing?

Or over hype to drive miners off.

From the charts I am going to say this is not FUD but some more reality.

Video from the markets and resellers,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9Fq-uTVNio

Note anyone looking to source now get to china tech markets,

 

[philipma1957]

Good video. Touches on the new tariff for USA buyers.

Or you could be like me I ordered 80000 in gear prior to tariff but it now seems I owe 2.6 % on all that gear. This goes back to 2013 in my case. I estimate I paid on 1/2 that gear.

So 2.6 % on 40000 could be a further payment I owe.

That is about 1000 not that bad.  But. Part of the billing was done in btc. So back when btc was 400 a coin I spent 25 coins.  That is only 10 k. Of the 40000 k I owe the tax on.

So what do I do if they say  those coins are worth 4 k each or worse 20k .

At 4K x 25 = 100000 x 2.6% or 2600 at 20k a coin that is 25 x 20000= 500,000  x 2.6% that is 13000

So.
1000 most likely this bill will show up and is close to what I owe

2600 I would fight this as I know I don’t owe this

13000 I would fight this harder as this would hurt.

So for me how do i justify more purchases from China .

As I have an unknown debt 1000 to 13000.
A possible legal fight if billed wrong.
And if I buy from China now I will be subject to 27.6% on all new gear.

Take a guy like me and multiply this by 10000 since many USA guys do more business then me.  And no one buys China gear.

[sidehack]

The best part about the tariffs is, we're now punishing Americans for letting their parents let China take over global electronics manufacturing. The retaliatory tariffs China put on us are for stuff they can buy from 20 other places but we're taxing ourselves for spending 30 years telling them they should do the work instead of us. You know MAGA hats and Trump 2020 signs are all made in China.

Of course the BTC economy is being controlled by China now. We gave it to them. We paid them hand over fist to take it.

[Norm MacDonald]

There's so much brand new Bitmain Legacy S9I and J gear for sale stateside at really good prices. No reason to buy from China. My guess is all those COLO dreamers that were building out huge DC's to rent out space to cloud miners, are dumping the gear they scooped up earlier this year. I know of 3 different sources right now that I could buy over 20K various S9's brand new in boxes with PSU's for peanuts. ( Wouldn't do it if i had that kind of money)That doesn't include whats for sale up North in Canada.

The best part about the tariffs is, we're now punishing Americans for letting their parents let China take over global electronics manufacturing. The retaliatory tariffs China put on us are for stuff they can buy from 20 other places but we're taxing ourselves for spending 30 years telling them they should do the work instead of us. You know MAGA hats and Trump 2020 signs are all made in China.

Of course the BTC economy is being controlled by China now. We gave it to them. We paid them hand over fist to take it.

Amen. Dead nuts on. If it wasn't so ridiculous, it would be hilarious.

[windjc]

@ windjc  

the entire BTC/sha256 hash shift was called as perfectly as possible by my thread which started on OCT 4th which was the peak difficulty

[...]

I’m not arguing your call although you predicted consolidation not a bubble bursting. But you were right about a top.

[philipma1957]

I’m not arguing your call although you predicted consolidation not a bubble bursting. But you were right about a top.

yeah I could not see diff going up anymore.  but I did not fully see drop to 3450 coming I thought it would or could mirror ltc in terms of diff which it did.
I was not as sure about price drop to under 3500.

Sometimes it is hard to fully explain my thoughts in blog form as it can get to long and boring to read.  But we are pretty much on the same page to a certain degree. I still see more drop in diff and maybe price goes down to 2700-2900.

I am ready for a  price to down to that  number or for that matter to go back up to 5000-5500. I do not see this year with a price that high.

[philipma1957]

Still downward

Current Pace:   87.5995%  (1372 / 1566.22 expected, 194.22 behind)
Current Difficulty:   6653303141405.96XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 5831179756343 and 5905645710536
Next Difficulty Change:   between -12.3566% and -11.2374%
Previous Retarget:   November 16, 2018 at 6:43 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 1:26 PM  (in 4d 21h 40m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 6:17 PM  (in 5d 2h 31m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 18h 42m 37s and 15d 23h 33m 50s

With flat cost of solar array this is okay for me.

[alh]

Looks to me like the next change will be a definite decrease in difficulty. May essentially reset back to roughly the same difficulty as the end of July. This of course is all in the context of a big drop in BTC price (now roughly $3772).

[philipma1957]

Looks to me like the next change will be a definite decrease in difficulty. May essentially reset back to roughly the same difficulty as the end of July. This of course is all in the context of a big drop in BTC price (now roughly $3772).

yeah I am a bit torn as to what I want price to do.  but a jump to 5500  or a drop to 2900 both work

i have a .25 buy at  2903  and a .35 sell at 5497

[stompix]

Cryptothis is narrowing the estimate

Current Pace:   88.1290%  (1468 / 1665.74 expected, 197.74 behind)
Next Difficulty:   between 5866254237772 and 5917981329180
Next Difficulty Change:   between -11.8294% and -11.0520%
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 7:38 PM  (in 4d 4h 17m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 10:59 PM  (in 4d 7h 38m 9s)

We've just had another 11% but in the other direction when it comes to price so I feel tempted to say that the next period we will see an increase in difficulty, especially since it might match the shipping of the new bitmain gear. But that's again speculation, how much have they sold, how much they will send...

Still, I think we have reached the bottom.

I signed a contract for a guaranteed price of around 4.8 cents per kwh for a year last month....feeling tempted to grab a miner...

[MoparMiningLLC]

You know MAGA hats and Trump 2020 signs are all made in China.

Mine were made in America - by a local shop that sells them to locations all over the US.

[philipma1957]

price is moving up  and gray line on graph below is moving down.

Looks like we will have the biggest drop in hash since I have mined. (2012)
Maybe 8,000,000,000 gh will leave network

that is 8,000,000,000/13,500 = 592,000 s-9s

Bitcoin Difficulty:   6,653,303,141,405
Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,880,224,692,251 (-11.62%)
Adjust time:   After 464 Blocks, About 3.8 days
Hashrate(?):   38,652,732,067 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.8 minutes
3 blocks: 35.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.2 hours

[tmfp]

I see Alloscomp is predicting a massive 32.5% drop, how are the projected changes so different?
At either estimate, the improvement in earnings must be an incentive to "plug back in" if that's what miners have been doing, or do you think that the BCash scenario is still in play?
Are coins like NMC more profitable?
Sorry for the non miner questions.

[philipma1957]

I see Alloscomp is predicting a massive 32.5% drop, how are the projected changes so different?
At either estimate, the improvement in earnings must be an incentive to "plug back in" if that's what miners have been doing, or do you think that the BCash scenario is still in play?
Are coins like NMC more profitable?
Sorry for the non miner questions.

https://i.imgur.com/MFu2WhM.png

Something is happening behind the scenes.

I think real drop will be more like 16%.

I don't cover NMC diff rate  I have no idea about it.  It always was lower then BTC diff that is about all I know about it.

this site below is most likely most accurate current number.

Latest Block:   551931  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   86.0327%  (1564 / 1817.91 expected, 253.91 behind)
Current Difficulty:   6653303141405.96XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 5726487111373 and 5766869514893
Next Difficulty Change:   between -13.9302% and -13.3232%
Previous Retarget:   November 16, 2018 at 6:43 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 10:31 PM  (in 3d 12h 49m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 1:16 AM  (in 3d 15h 33m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 16d 3h 48m 25s and 16d 6h 32m 57s

[Norm MacDonald]

I see Alloscomp is predicting a massive 32.5% drop, how are the projected changes so different?

While us Miners would like this, wouldn't this portend some very negative overall fundamentals? My guess is "no" because the massive size of the overall network. Anyone?

[rifleman74]

From BTC.com

Next Difficulty Estimated
(-13.13%) 5.78 T
Date to Next Difficulty
3 Days 15 Hours

There have been quite a few fairly decent-sized farms that have shut down for now.

[philipma1957]

The -32%  prediction here

Next difficulty retarget occurs at block 551947.0 (eta 0.0 sec): 4.36411761268e+12 / -34.4% [est.]

is not accurate and unlikely to occur

We will do -10% to -17 %

we have 436 blocks left to drop down to -32%   we would need  to do under 95 blocks a day.

we did a jump on the 16 of nov  640 pm

14 days later is nov 30 640 pm 0 % this would mean we make 436 blocks in 1 days  not  happening

a 15 day epoch is 1/14 off  - 7.1 %  this would mean we make  436 blocks in 2 days not happening

a 16 day epoch is 2/14 off  -14.2 % this would mean we make  436 blocks in 3 days maybe
a 17 day epoch is 3/14 off  -21.3 % this would mean we make  436 blocks in 4 days maybe

a 18 day epoch is 4/14 off  -28.3 % this would mean we make 436 blocks in 5 days not happening
a 19 day epoch is 5/14 off  -35.3% this would mean we make 436 blocks in 6 days not happening

[Steamtyme]

we did a jump on the 16 of nov  640 pm

The last adjustment was a drop, which was very welcome.

Captain obvious but that 21 % drop would be sweet. My winter is now one if holding the mining rewards, so if we can make ground downward preferably in large leaps early on I'll be a happy camper.

[philipma1957]

The last adjustment was a drop, which was very welcome.

Captain obvious but that 21 % drop would be sweet. My winter is now one if holding the mining rewards, so if we can make ground downward preferably in large leaps early on I'll be a happy camper.

I think it does -16%

Which I will take.

[Norm MacDonald]

I think it does -16%

Which I will take.

I would welcome this as well as I do not believe the lows are in yet. Too many people running around proclaiming the bottom. I know that sounds trite but at this point "psychology" is a significant part of this equation.

[philipma1957]

I would welcome this as well as I do not believe the lows are in yet. Too many people running around proclaiming the bottom. I know that sounds trite but at this point "psychology" is a significant part of this equation.

The effect of the 27.6% tax is a large part of this.

Believe it or not 2.6% tax which is being applied backwards has also slowed sales of gear.  I have ordered more then 80,000 in gear since 2012 sometimes I paid 3% as I was over 2500 which I thought was the exemption level. So of that 80000 I paid on 40,000 of it.  Which means I owe maybe 2.6% of 40,000

2.6 % of 80000 is about 2000
2.6% of 40,000 is about 1000  Since I paid on half the gear as I was billed on larger orders I owe on say 40,000 and paid on say 40,000

of the 80000 part of that was billed in BTC not USD  25 coins worth of gear worth 10000 was purchased.  Suppose they come back to me and say those coins are valued at 20000 each which was bcc's high point that is 500,000 which is 13,000 at 2.6% or they use the current value of 4000 which is 100,000 total that is 2600 in back duty tax> I know they were worth 400 and I can prove it  but I now have a possible tax fight on my hands.

 Best case Is I don't get any bills $0  

Next best Is I get a 1000 dollar bill which is close to what I figure I owe.

But a bill for 3350 could show  750 + 2600  it would be wrong I would need to fight it.
Or a bill for   13750 could show 750 + 13000 it would be wrong I would need to fight it.

what does that translate to?  no orders from China for the next year on my part.

Lots of people in my spot.  I suspect that many USA people stopped buying gear. We all know that USA mining is not that much but I would think 10% to 20% of gear purchased from China was sent to USA.  I would suspect that has dropped a lot.

This morning shows us down around 14 %

Latest Block:   552042  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   85.1649%  (1675 / 1966.77 expected, 291.77 behind) the actual number now!
Current Difficulty:   6653303141405.96XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 5668539736297 and 5692646366071
Next Difficulty Change:   between -14.8011% and -14.4388%
Previous Retarget:   November 16, 2018 at 6:43 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 3:34 AM  (in 2d 17h 3m 31s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 5:15 AM  (in 2d 18h 43m 59s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 16d 8h 51m 15s and 16d 10h 31m 43s

[Steamtyme]

Some of the bills I've seen/read people receiving on previous orders is insane. Especially to get hit with that in the current market condition is like a gut shot.

It will be interesting to see if these low cost hardware sales have any lasting impact on Diff. I have to think that some of those borderline profitable companies might take the opportunity to grab directly from Canaan.

Those firmware updates are probably going to be a wash. The efficiency will help some people keep miners online, and others to put more online and still be profitable, but the few numbers I saw so far cut the hashrate down about 25% I think. This is also contingent on most people getting the information and applying the update.

-14.8 with 222 blocks to go, let's get over 15.

[philipma1957]

I ordered an A921 last night  I will play with downclocks and run it in the garage.  It will lose money unless price jumps  but I will get some heat from it.

Last year I was doing :
7kwatts from the garage
my friends office was doing 1.5 kwatts
buysolar and I were doing 33kwatts from the array

about 41-42 kwatts
during the best months over 10000 usd a month profit

this year I am doing

3kwatts from the garage
friends office 1.5 kwatts
solar array 20kwatts
and a 4kwatt deal at 130 a month  for the 4kwatts that is about 4.5 cents

so power used is now 28-29 kwatts  and combined income under 1000 usd a month after payments.

Holding aside cash for bills from fedex dhl and ups. I am hoping for the correct bills (1000 or so)

we are close to -15%.

One good thing is I have 42th off line in s9's  and 20 th off line in the new avalon.  If there was a btc price move I could add 62th like that. this diff drop  puts me close to being able to add that hash back.

[Norm MacDonald]

Has anyone been able to extrapolate what the -15% drop would translate into dollar wise of profit increase, say for a 14th S9 paying .045 per KWH?

[philipma1957]

Has anyone been able to extrapolate what the -15% drop would translate into dollar wise of profit increase, say for a 14th S9 paying .045 per KWH?

sure  give me 1 minute

14000 gh using  1400 watts at 4.5 cents and a 6.653 diff coin price of 4300  makes 75 or 76 cents a day

 with diff drop

14000 gh using 1400 watts at 4.5 cents and a 5.653 diff coin price at 4300 makes  1.17 usd a day

[Norm MacDonald]

I'm getting around .98 cents per day net of electricity??

[philipma1957]

I'm getting around .98 cents per day net of electricity??

see my numbers above I used a coin price of 4300

[Norm MacDonald]

sure  give me 1 minute

14000 gh using  1400 watts at 4.5 cents and a 6.653 diff coin price of 4300  makes 75 or 76 cents a day

 with diff drop

14000 gh using 1400 watts at 4.5 cents and a 5.653 diff coin price at 4300 makes  1.17 usd a day

Wow....That's pretty invigorating. As in maybe, "turn a cartwheel" kind of invigorating. Thanks Philip.

[mikeywith]

1.5 days for the drop . btcwisdom is showing (5,702,705,853,580 (-14.29%)) . you almost nailed it.

i'l take 16% too   . can't wait to see another huge red candle, sideways market for a few months, more drop in the difficulty, and more BTC for me  

[philipma1957]

I am hanging in there hoping for  this to continue onward and downward 

I came up with a lot of numbers  and reasons to explain this.  My best guess is bitmain and hashnest are doing it.

[Norm MacDonald]

I am hanging in there hoping for  this to continue onward and downward  

I came up with a lot of numbers  and reasons to explain this.  My best guess is bitmain and hashnest are doing it.

I am in the same camp. Bitmain is in a very precarious position right now. Far over leveraged, New Tech bombing, sales tanking, IPO in jeopardy. Dropping massive Hash from the network is not a terrible strategy to plug some of their leaks. It's a pretty god way to kindle mining interest and possibly bring on some sales revenue. Right now their cashflow is a trickle and the weight of their inventories is dragging them under.

[qctechno_isback]

$BSV need to pump his price to be more profitable to mine than $BTC or $BAB
Godzillatoshi and friends are crashing BTC prices to make it happen.

Juhan and Roger make sure they have the longest chain, need to drain hashrate to support BAB.

BTC vs BAB vs BSV mining profitability

https://cash.coin.dance/

[philipma1957]

we are closing in on the drop  about 16-18 hours to go

Bitcoin Difficulty:   6,653,303,141,405
Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,674,530,203,616 (-14.71%)
Adjust time:   After 87 Blocks, About 17.5 hours
Hashrate(?):   36,845,106,423 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 12.1 minutes
3 blocks: 36.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.2 hours

[TheYankeesWin!]

In looking at the chart the grey line is below the blue one  which means we  will have another drop if it continues.

[philipma1957]

@ yankees  if we drop 15%  to a diff of about 5,600,000,000,000

hash for that is around 40,000,000,000

Our current hash rate is about 36,600,000,000   that would mean a 10% drop  say to a diff of 5,000,000,000,000


but we know that current rate of 36,600,000,000 could go in any direction  so next jump is still a mystery.

Still a follow up jump/drop  down to 4,900,000,000,000  with 36,600,000,000 gh  would mean 

the peak of 53,600,000,000 gh would now be down to 36,600,000,000 gh

about 17,000,000,000gh/14,000gh =   1,214,285 s-9s pulled off the market  pretty amazing

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

Following the hashrate trends I would say what @philipma1957 is saying is right we could see it continue to fall as there is no sign of the hashrate bouncing back right now.

above is a chart from 01/10/18 to 02/12/18.

[Norm MacDonald]

$BSV need to pump his price to be more profitable to mine than $BTC or $BAB
Godzillatoshi and friends are crashing BTC prices to make it happen.

Juhan and Roger make sure they have the longest chain, need to drain hashrate to support BAB.

BTC vs BAB vs BSV mining profitability

https://cash.coin.dance/

This is simply not true. It was an idle threat. The good "Dr." shorted BCH through swaps on the OTC market. This was all a very selfish and greedy, ego driven game of "whose weenie is bigger". Perpetrated by some of the worst actors in the space. They knew from the jump that all three would survive. It was an easy way to create another "shitcoin" and make an easy killing on Swaps trades. Here's how it works; I ( Dr. doufus ) lend you my long BCH position at $600.00 with an agreement to purchase them back at a later date. ( Post Nov 15 ). Mant hedge funds and speculators welcome the other side of this as Dr. Doufus's broker must give them a fat edge in order to take it. EG; if BCH is bid strong at $600,00 then we structure the swap to sell the asset to the buyer at $575.00. This gives the buyer the ability to hedge to position or slowly feed it to the guppies in the open market. Then Dr. Doufus starts spouting off like an insolent child about crushing BTC and a "fight to the death". BCH down over 60%. Boom. Free money and a brand new shiny shitcoin to call his own. Yes he should be arrested.

[philipma1957]

yeah there is that  and then there was bitmain  running s-7's along side s-9's in hashnest.

At one point  I estimate they had 200000 s-7's charging power rates at s-7.  With no way to know how many of them were actually s-9's.

since  1 s-9  is 100 watts a th
and 1 s-7 is 250 watts a th.  the math is  150 x 24 = 3.6 kwatts  x 0.08 = 28.8 cents extra profit on every s-7 every day  or

28,800 a day if 100,000 of the 200,000 s-7s were indeed s-9's  this went on from May of 2016 to  Feb or march of 2018

say 20 months x 30 days = 600 x 28,800 = 17 million plus.

to compound this  have the s11 for sale on chinese website  it pulls 70 watts a th vs 100  so they could have done this from Feb of 2018 to Dec of 2018  less of a score maybe 2 million  all in 20 million plus.

Not saying they did it  but they had the opportunity to do it and it would be undetected  without proper accounting proceedures  of which I have scene zero evidence of existing.

So yeah a lot of shit is happening now.  Still look to be down around 15%  and maybe another down after that.

This also means price drop will not hurt 4 cent power guys.

So I now see -15% then  -10%  with a dip to 2800 usd a coin.

4 cent power at current diff breaks even at 2600

and turns a 11 cent a day profit at  2800 with current diif

but drop diff to 5,653,303,141,405  and  an s-9 makes 37 cents

drop diff to 5,000,000,000,000 and an s-9 makes 60 cents

many power plants  can sell commercially at 4 to 5 cents they use s-9s when they have excess power rathe then shut down the plants.

so 4 cent profitability is worked into the bitcoin system ie dropping to a loss at 4 cents is not acceptable for these power plants.

So with diff of 6.6 now the floor price has big support  in the low 3,100-3,400

but a diff of 5.5 will drop floor price to   2,900- 3,100

and a diff of 5.0 will drop floor price to 2,500-2,700

does not mean  we will drop in price to those floors  but those floors work for big 4 cent miners.

[Norm MacDonald]

This is the best and most useful analysis on Diff, Coin Price and Profitabilty I've seen to date on any forum. Thanks Philip, your work is much appreciated.

[...]

So I now see -15% then  -10%  with a dip to 2800 usd a coin.

4 cent power at current diff breaks even at 2600

and turns a 11 cent a day profit at  2800 with current diif

but drop diff to 5,653,303,141,405  and  an s-9 makes 37 cents

drop diff to 5,000,000,000,000 and an s-9 makes 60 cents

many power plants  can sell commercially at 4 to 5 cents they use s-9s when they have excess power rathe then shut down the plants.

so 4 cent profitability is worked into the bitcoin system ie dropping to a loss at 4 cents is not acceptable for these power plants.

So with diff of 6.6 now the floor price has big support  in the low 3,100-3,400

but a diff of 5.5 will drop floor price to   2,900- 3,100

and a diff of 5.0 will drop floor price to 2,500-2,700

does not mean  we will drop in price to those floors  but those floors work for big 4 cent miners.

[philipma1957]

A lot of miners run deals with power plants.

I worked on a 100 megawatt build out involving 5 power plants

the farm acts as a power leveler for 5 plants.  They get a good deal under 4 cents more then 3 cents.

It is a real need for power plants to be able to shunt excess power> I can't name the plants or the city they support.

But I live in New Jersey which does not have a city big enough to use 5 power plants.

Of course NJ is Near

Philadelphia
New YorK City
Wilmington

any of those Cites Have a power grid that would need to be able to shunt power during low demand.

So the support floor does exist for low numbers. It is real and it is world wide as many power plants use farms to shunt power  rather then turn down  the generator as it is costly to do that.

I could do a really long complicated set of reasons of why bitmain would lower diff but the simple one is they would love to dump every s-9 they can dump to power companies that want to shed off peak load.

To me we get the -15%
 we get the -10%
and price has downward pressure very close to 3000.

Then in 2019 we get a good bounce.

[philipma1957]

widespread here  -2.6 to -18.6
the important thing to see is we are down 29 blocks
we are 25 hours in  should be 6 x 25 = 150  actual made is 121

Latest Block:   552504  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   80.6159%  (121 / 150.09 expected, 29.09 behind)
Current Difficulty:   5646403851534.721XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 4591717672560 and 5499325209464
Next Difficulty Change:   between -18.6789% and -2.6048%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 6:46 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 17, 2018 at 4:10 PM  (in 13d 8h 23m 28s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 20, 2018 at 3:33 PM  (in 16d 7h 46m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 24m 25s and 17d 8h 47m 29s

As Agent Mulder would say "the truth is out there"

Well in the case of mining BTC the gear is out there.

Thats is why  the prediction above has a big range.  yeah we are really down  around 18%  but lots of gear could be turned back on.  So -2 or even +1 could happen.

I still see a price drop  with this downward diff movement.

[stompix]

Seems like as usual, I'm going to be almost entirely wrong...

I'm probably 99 times wrong out of 100 when trying to predict stuff but no way a 20% drop will happen if the price will stay at least the same or in a 5% range from 4500. No way!

It was just 15% last week but if it goes down even the minimum anticipated I'll be proven wrong again

Current Pace:   78.6372%  (129 / 164.04 expected, 35.04 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -20.7339% and -3.1387%

But still, I can't really believe this is happening, I'm amazed that there was so much gear that was mining at such low-profit margins and with at least over 5 cents per kWh.

Really I need to ignore this whole mining stuff, I feel so tempted get some miners right now

[sidehack]

Give yourself some credit. It's been about twelve days since the price was at best barely tapping "within 5% of 4500" margins.

[Norm MacDonald]

I have run into three separate situations where I was buying gear from " Hosting " facilities and or Colo set ups. Each time I was shocked at how little these operations knew about basic cooling and infrastructure. Their "floor costs" or infrastructure costs were astronomical. I believe a lot of these miners that are for sale on the secondary market in US and Canada are coming from these poorly planned build outs, that just threw large amounts of capital at them without understanding the metrics of the operations. Even at the most basic level. I believe there are still many more to follow. Not only did "fast money" over speculate BTC itself, it went "All In " on Colo, Reselling of Gear and every other facet of this business. I suspect the shake out will continue until all the Wheat is separated from the Chaff.

[rifleman74]

I have run into three separate situations where I was buying gear from " Hosting " facilities and or Colo set ups. Each time I was shocked at how little these operations knew about basic cooling and infrastructure. Their "floor costs" or infrastructure costs were astronomical. I believe a lot of these miners that are for sale on the secondary market in US and Canada are coming from these poorly planned build outs, that just threw large amounts of capital at them without understanding the metrics of the operations. Even at the most basic level. I believe there are still many more to follow. Not only did "fast money" over speculate BTC itself, it went "All In " on Colo, Reselling of Gear and every other facet of this business. I suspect the shake out will continue until all the Wheat is separated from the Chaff.

I would agree yes, quite a few farms have gone up and busted. 

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

Lot of miners suffering right now power cost being a massive factor while the diff drop is helping some I do fear the smaller mines 10-200 machines range are on the chopping block unless your supplementing with renewable energy or have a really competitive rate.  We were paying 12.5P here in the UK and we have been told we will now pay 22p via the facility resellers. :/  So we're out.

[philipma1957]

we may drop 10% to 15% again which is very interesting if we do.

Frankly  with real luck  we  do a -15 say dec 16 and then a -10 jan1

which will get us down to around 33,000,000,000 gh and a diff of 4,800,000,000,000

for jan  of 2019

a diff of 4,800,000,000,000 works for around a 2500 price point for a 4 cent miner

[Biffa]

Lot of miners suffering right now power cost being a massive factor while the diff drop is helping some I do fear the smaller mines 10-200 machines range are on the chopping block unless your supplementing with renewable energy or have a really competitive rate.  We were paying 12.5P here in the UK and we have been told we will now pay 22p via the facility resellers. :/  So we're out.

At 12.5p/kwh which is 16c/kwh you should have been out a long time ago.

At $4000 you would have been losing $3 a day per S9
At $8000 it would have been $0.45 a day loss.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

At 12.5p/kwh which is 16c/kwh you should have been out a long time ago.

At $4000 you would have been losing $3 a day per S9
At $8000 it would have been $0.45 a day loss.

Hey I was still running my S3's.  
Those puppy's alone were sinking the juice.
I think in the long run even with running at a loss come few years who knows where the price will go, it could turn into a very nice amount.
Happy to throw some fiat away to gain some coins for the long run.

Though now at 22p it's a 100% no mine situation.

[Norm MacDonald]

If BTC stabilizes and chops around North of $3,500.00, I speculate we will see some marginal Hash Power come back online. I'm not expecting another whopper drop at the next jump. Of course with any new lows, that completely changes. We seem to be nearing a major shake out for many miners. That's why I think it will likely happen. Markets like to go on "seek and destroy" missions. Finding the pockets of the most pain and administering that without prejudice.

[Raymond_B]

As a comparison, LPM firmware and diff adjustments down have been keeping me just *above* break even. But there does come a point in time where simply buying BTC might be better unless you're heating your house or something.

[agente]

Hey I was still running my S3's.  
Those puppy's alone were sinking the juice.
I think in the long run even with running at a loss come few years who knows where the price will go, it could turn into a very nice amount.
Happy to throw some fiat away to gain some coins for the long run.

Though now at 22p it's a 100% no mine situation.

So.. do you prefer to pay 100usd to energy company for 50 usd of BTC indeed buy directly 100usd of BTC? wow

[philipma1957]

So.. do you prefer to pay 100usd to energy company for 50 usd of BTC indeed buy directly 100usd of BTC? wow

Not sure he does but mining at a loss on an affordable scale is not so dumb

Ie loss of a few hunderd usd  a month for a year.  lets say  you spent 4800 this year mining and have 1 btc.

It can be in a wallet  that no one knows about but yourself  so paying  4800 for a 3900 asset is not so dumb  if it goes up to 20000 in a few years.

and you could sell the coin for 19000 cash  to a guy that has a fresh core wallet  and he now has a hidden asset.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

Not sure he does but mining at a loss on an affordable scale is not so dumb

Ie loss of a few hunderd usd  a month for a year.  lets say  you spent 4800 this year mining and have 1 btc.

It can be in a wallet  that no one knows about but yourself  so paying  4800 for a 3900 asset is not so dumb  if it goes up to 20000 in a few years.

and you could sell the coin for 19000 cash  to a guy that has a fresh core wallet  and he now has a hidden asset.

This is 100% correct.
I also don't like I have to KYC to buy bitcoin here from most places and I refuse to deal on Local bitcoins.

So mining even for a while at a loss I really don't think of it as a loss right now more of a investment for the future with potential of x5-x10-x?? gains.

Basically swapping something that is very abundant (FIAT) for something that is limited and rare (BTC)

and I sub to the Hal finny way of thinking.. 10 Million per bitcoin.  

http://www.metzdowd.com/pipermail/cryptography/2009-January/015004.html

[fanatic26_]

I have run into three separate situations where I was buying gear from " Hosting " facilities and or Colo set ups. Each time I was shocked at how little these operations knew about basic cooling and infrastructure. Their "floor costs" or infrastructure costs were astronomical. I believe a lot of these miners that are for sale on the secondary market in US and Canada are coming from these poorly planned build outs, that just threw large amounts of capital at them without understanding the metrics of the operations. Even at the most basic level. I believe there are still many more to follow. Not only did "fast money" over speculate BTC itself, it went "All In " on Colo, Reselling of Gear and every other facet of this business. I suspect the shake out will continue until all the Wheat is separated from the Chaff.

You hit the nail on the head here. As someone who has been doing this at an industrial level longer than most I have seen soooo many poorly designed and poorly ran datacenters pop up and die a horrible death shortly after. The only way to survive in this industry is to run very lean in all phases of operation at all times regardless of profits or how well the market is doing. What i have always done is ride the waves up by reinvesting and expanding when times are good so that when things are on the downturn you can survive by the sheer size of your operation. Most people getting into this game make a few major mistakes. Mistake 1 is build costs, the way to build is leaning on the secondary market. Electrical infrastructure has not changed much in the last 50 years, a transformer is a transformer. As an example, I picked up used 480/208 step down transformers for pennies on the dollar used while I watched other places pay tens of thousands of dollars for brand new equipment where im paying maybe 10% of what they are for used equipment that functions just as well. With over 20mw of power in use I have not had a single used transformer fail. Another thing I consider a mistake is buying PDUs new. These can easily run into the high hundreds per piece new, whereas I have over 3000 active PDUs and none of them cost over $100 thanks to the secondary market.

The second big mistake is in operational costs.

I know of 5mw datacenters with 20 technicians on staff and even with all that they still are lucky to keep a 90% uptime. I have done the exact opposite, I have a small team for a very large space but we have created efficient processes and monitoring tools in house to greatly augment the efficiency of our team. With an average of 12000 machines online I can claim (with proof) we keep an over 99% uptime with a staff of less than half a dozen. Only by keeping operational costs as low as possible and reinvesting as much as possible on the upswings can you survive here stateside. When you factor in insurance and taxes and tariffs and everything else, overall costs can stack up quickly and most people starting these datacenters with the dream of lining their own pockets will never have a sustainable business model. You survive by stacking and saving and being prepared for the volatile market conditions that are guaranteed to happen.

[windjc]

You must love this shit, because it would be much easier to just buy bitcoin and HODL.

[Norm MacDonald]

You hit the nail on the head here. As someone who has been doing this at an industrial level longer than most I have seen soooo many poorly designed and poorly ran datacenters pop up and die a horrible death shortly after. The only way to survive in this industry is to run very lean in all phases of operation at all times regardless of profits or how well the market is doing. What i have always done is ride the waves up by reinvesting and expanding when times are good so that when things are on the downturn you can survive by the sheer size of your operation. Most people getting into this game make a few major mistakes. Mistake 1 is build costs, the way to build is leaning on the secondary market. Electrical infrastructure has not changed much in the last 50 years, a transformer is a transformer. As an example, I picked up used 480/208 step down transformers for pennies on the dollar used while I watched other places pay tens of thousands of dollars for brand new equipment where im paying maybe 10% of what they are for used equipment that functions just as well. With over 20mw of power in use I have not had a single used transformer fail. Another thing I consider a mistake is buying PDUs new. These can easily run into the high hundreds per piece new, whereas I have over 3000 active PDUs and none of them cost over $100 thanks to the secondary market.

The second big mistake is in operational costs.

I know of 5mw datacenters with 20 technicians on staff and even with all that they still are lucky to keep a 90% uptime. I have done the exact opposite, I have a small team for a very large space but we have created efficient processes and monitoring tools in house to greatly augment the efficiency of our team. With an average of 12000 machines online I can claim (with proof) we keep an over 99% uptime with a staff of less than half a dozen. Only by keeping operational costs as low as possible and reinvesting as much as possible on the upswings can you survive here stateside. When you factor in insurance and taxes and tariffs and everything else, overall costs can stack up quickly and most people starting these datacenters with the dream of lining their own pockets will never have a sustainable business model. You survive by stacking and saving and being prepared for the volatile market conditions that are guaranteed to happen.

A...Freaking...MEN!! I am much smaller than that but I do ALL my own work. I sure as Hell don't Air Condition my units! I'm only 3MW but I have one employee and I don't hire anyone for anything that I can do myself and I can do most of it. Couldn't agree more. Lean and Mean and down and dirty. Who knows, even that may not be enough when it's all said and done but it at least gives you a fighting chance. Nice post. Thanks.

You must love this shit, because it would be much easier to just buy bitcoin and HODL.

How can you say that after what has just happened. There is a sea of people that do this that are wiped out, or down 80%. Miners have the option to hold, sell, hedge...trade. The flexibility is invaluable. This "HODL" thing needs to be put to rest. It's not viable in a Bear market.

[philipma1957]

Stay on topic guys.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   5,646,403,851,534
Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,375,391,652,765 (-4.80%)
Adjust time:   After 1698 Blocks, About 12.7 days
Hashrate(?):   37,293,789,435 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.8 minutes
3 blocks: 32.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

Current Pace:   88.8959%  (319 / 358.85 expected, 39.85 behind)
Current Difficulty:   5646403851534.721XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 5037694488808 and 5454336024783
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.7805% and -3.4016%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 6:46 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 17, 2018 at 7:00 PM  (in 12d 0h 25m 24s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 19, 2018 at 12:44 AM  (in 13d 6h 9m 44s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 12h 13m 53s and 15d 17h 58m 12s

-10%  to -8% seems pretty likely.

But on any given day the missing 16,000,000,000gh could come back online  as it is out there somewhere

The diff day adjustment high for hash was 53,000,000,000gh or about 3,785,714 s9's if network was all s9's

The real high for has was around 56,000,000,000 or about 4,000,000 s9's

so the current number now is 37,500,000,000

that is a drop of 18,500,000,000 gh or 1,321,400 s9's are off line

[windjc]

I don't mean to take the thread off topic. Its just that watching the mining carnage and the zero sum mining game in action, it seems like an incredible amount of financial outlay and upkeep and risk vs. just buying bitcoin.

I know you are on freeish solar so that's a different ballgame. But the upside to mining is "discounted" coins. The downside is loss. Buying bitcoin anytime since 2009 except for a handful of months in 2017 is now incredible gains, with zero maintenance or overhead.

I find these mining threads very educational as I try to understand the mentality behind them.

[philipma1957]

I don't mean to take the thread off topic. Its just that watching the mining carnage and the zero sum mining game in action, it seems like an incredible amount of financial outlay and upkeep and risk vs. just buying bitcoin.

I know you are on freeish solar so that's a different ballgame. But the upside to mining is "discounted" coins. The downside is loss. Buying bitcoin anytime since 2009 except for a handful of months in 2017 is now incredible gains, with zero maintenance or overhead.

I find these mining threads very educational as I try to understand the mentality behind them.

Well I can earn a certain profit at mining.

Anyone with low power cost can do it.

hodl has no guarantee.

Risk is lower to mine if your power cost is dirt cheap.

hodl a coin has high risk.

So do I make a certain  10 to 20%  year after year  and once in a while  have a 90% year  2013 and 2018  were 90% years for me.

this year is about 3-5% year the worst I have had.

[mikeywith]

I gotta say I love these calculations. hats down !

but there are 2 points that might play a big role in affecting the predictions.

1- the S11/S15/T15 .
these machines run about 40% to 70% more efficient than the S9s. indeed they will not make a 70% change in the calculation but soon enough tons of them will be up and running.

2- I have some good contacts with some bulk asic suppliers in China mainland, there are S9s by the tons that have been shut down, packed and waiting for a buyer. they are selling as low as 125$ with PSU ! .

one of the suppliers i know sold well over 7000*s9s a few days ago "Free On Board". ! which makes me think , somebody somewhere who is not in china have access to cheaper power and is about to start plugging back those S9s !.

now of course this could be a group of stupid rich kids who just heard about mining and are entering a business that will make 0 profit for them as many others do. but the scrary part of point 2 is the price ! a second hand s9 with PSU for 125$ is tempting! it can attract many investors to buy and keep the difficulty up.

again they could be buying them only because they are cheap and they waiting for a bounce in BTC price to start mining, but what are the odds than anybody would do this?

I know 7000 s9s are not a big deal, but the overall second hand market for asics in china will do just fine, they will keep dropping the price until they get rid of them, regardless of whether the buyer's business plan is successful or not. many if not most of the almost 1 million s9s that have been shut down can possibility return to service.

I do hope i am wrong and whatever thoughts i am having now are nothing but the result of eating to much lamb earlier.

[windjc]

Well I can earn a certain profit at mining.

Anyone with low power cost can do it.

hodl has no guarantee.

Risk is lower to mine if your power cost is dirt cheap.

hodl a coin has high risk.

So do I make a certain  10 to 20%  year after year  and once in a while  have a 90% year  2013 and 2018  were 90% years for me.

this year is about 3-5% year the worst I have had.

Yes, except if you were entering the mining game today you have long term risk of recovering your outlay that is predicated on price just like "hodlers" and on top of that you have risk of hash rate exponentially becoming harder.

So thats a second layer of risk.

Your bet paid off with returns as high as 90%. My risk paid off with returns in the 10 of thousands %.

Mining was brilliant once upon a time. But to enter mining today, you have to be someone who just loves the business and gets a kick out of machines, wires, power grids and cooling systems, etc.

I was in the music business for years. Likewise, I would tell someone who wanted to enter it, to only enter it if you HAVE to do it. If it makes you whole and happy. Because its a terrible terrible business.

[Norm MacDonald]

Yes....terrible...to be sure. Don't do it!!

[agente]

It can be in a wallet  that no one knows about but yourself  so paying  4800 for a 3900 asset is not so dumb  if it goes up to 20000 in a few years.

and you could sell the coin for 19000 cash  to a guy that has a fresh core wallet  and he now has a hidden asset.

Why not paying 4800 for a 4800 asset in that wallet?

[philipma1957]

Why not paying 4800 for a 4800 asset in that wallet?

Hey I don't want secret assets and I won't pay a premium to get them.

But some people want to do it.

So the answer is  yes  pay 4800 and keep it on the up and up.

[qctechno_isback]

BTC @ 3.5K$
BTC Mining stable at 37Exo hash.
Another diff drop of 5% in sight.

Guess it will be it until late Dec then up again.

Chain profitability war it is

OP well explained mining floor cost

[Thetaj]

I agree on this. The diff and prices right now are heavily manipulated by someone (not pointing fingers here). But evidence does suggest that. Strap in boys, we're going in for  several months of turmoil. Hope you got your Fiat stocks ready!

[philipma1957]

I agree on this. The diff and prices right now are heavily manipulated by someone (not pointing fingers here). But evidence does suggest that. Strap in boys, we're going in for  several months of turmoil. Hope you got your Fiat stocks ready!

Bitmain via hashnest  there I pointed a finger or 2.

[sidehack]

Well whoever's doing it needs to take a break. Another thousand dollar dump in a week making a 50% drop in four weeks, sales evaporating, hosting customers turning off - I'm really not looking forward to going bankrupt and shutting down my business right after Christmas.

[philipma1957]

Well whoever's doing it needs to take a break. Another thousand dollar dump in a week making a 50% drop in four weeks, sales evaporating, hosting customers turning off - I'm really not looking forward to going bankrupt and shutting down my business right after Christmas.

yeah it has to be very hard on your business model.

I am down  from 400-600 a day last Nov-Dec-Jan  to 150 a month.

big drop for me.

[sidehack]

I dropped hosting price to power cost to keep people from shutting down immediately because I need heat for winter. I was at 65% capacity by then already. I'm rolling out a USB hub that should kit nicely with NewPacs but it'll also be a good standalone product whose sales will be insulated from Bitcoin whims, but I'm getting a late start and having half my savings disappear in the span of a few weeks sure doesn't help. It also doesn't help that a lot of my parts now cost more than they used to, thanks Trump.

Phil, if you'd like a sample hub to play with and give me an opinion I can send you one.

I haven't done much mining myself in at least a year but even with the diff dropping, even if I could afford miners I wouldn't buy any.

[philipma1957]

I dropped hosting price to power cost to keep people from shutting down immediately because I need heat for winter. I was at 65% capacity by then already. I'm rolling out a USB hub that should kit nicely with NewPacs but it'll also be a good standalone product whose sales will be insulated from Bitcoin whims, but I'm getting a late start and having half my savings disappear in the span of a few weeks sure doesn't help. It also doesn't help that a lot of my parts now cost more than they used to, thanks Trump.

Phil, if you'd like a sample hub to play with and give me an opinion I can send you one.

I haven't done much mining myself in at least a year but even with the diff dropping, even if I could afford miners I wouldn't buy any.

Sent a pm.

[Biodom]

I dropped hosting price to power cost to keep people from shutting down immediately because I need heat for winter. I was at 65% capacity by then already. I'm rolling out a USB hub that should kit nicely with NewPacs but it'll also be a good standalone product whose sales will be insulated from Bitcoin whims, but I'm getting a late start and having half my savings disappear in the span of a few weeks sure doesn't help. It also doesn't help that a lot of my parts now cost more than they used to, thanks Trump.

Phil, if you'd like a sample hub to play with and give me an opinion I can send you one.

I haven't done much mining myself in at least a year but even with the diff dropping, even if I could afford miners I wouldn't buy any.

will sent a pm shortly.

[philipma1957]

we are still pretty low maybe 36,000,000,000 gh or down 10% from last jump.

but the gear is out there it is not being destroyed and we don't quite know what the move being done is.

I know I can think of quite a few moves being attempted but  not sure which one it is.

the gray line is still very low  compare it to the spike over 55,000,000,000 back about a month.

[philipma1957]

Well yeah  if there is 57xxx real hash and we are down to 36xxx real hash

21xxx hash is off line.  the simple question is  who controls it?

One player (bitmain)

and if they do control all that  plus a good chunk of the hash online say 9xxx of the 36xxx online they could be lining up the old 51% attack

9 + 21 = 30  which may be ½ the network.

they may be posing to destroy btc  next year and pump bch to the motherfucking moon.

this war is coming and lots of guns are lining up.

this is what some think is going to happen I don't think so at all.

beware of the

fud below

holders beware all your coins could be forked and lifted out of your wallets legally under a correctly done attack

fud by the way

[userghost]

Mining for the big boys and for those with friends in the right places will always be profitable. I have a friend with a mining farm in Venezuela where electric is under .01c per Kw/h. Yes under 1/10th of a penny per Kw/h that is not a typo. They can mine for days down there while everyone else struggles.

[Norm MacDonald]

Mining for the big boys and for those with friends in the right places will always be profitable. I have a friend with a mining farm in Venezuela where electric is under .01c per Kw/h. Yes under 1/10th of a penny per Kw/h that is not a typo. They can mine for days down there while everyone else struggles.

Until he gets caught correct? I suspect the penalty for mining BTC in Venezuela is a bit steep. Unless he's paying corrupt Govt officials which is also a dangerous game. From what I've read and heard, mining BTC in Venezuela could be hazardous to ones health.

[philipma1957]

down in diff we go!

Current Pace:   86.8522%  (770 / 886.56 expected, 116.56 behind) close to one day behind
Current Difficulty:   5646403851534.721XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 4911235687537 and 5168284870183
Next Difficulty Change:   between -13.0201% and -8.4677%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 6:46 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 18, 2018 at 2:12 PM  (in 9d 3h 40m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 19, 2018 at 9:38 AM  (in 9d 23h 6m 12s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 7h 26m 4s and 16d 2h 51m 51s

gray line has us under  35,000,000,000gh!

[TheYankeesWin!]

So 34,500,000,000 gh is lowest since June correct?

I got this on bitcoinwisdom

Jun 19 2018   5,077,499,034,879   2.77%   36,346,153,834 GH/s
Jun 05 2018   4,940,704,885,521   14.71%   35,366,943,171 GH/s
May 24 2018   4,306,949,573,981   3.94%   30,830,345,943 GH/s

[philipma1957]

Yes so if we continue to drift downwards we may average to 36-37,000,000,000 gh this drop followed by another drop to 33-34,000,000,000 gh

LTC dropped from hashrate of 323,782 gh  in may to 169,928 in dec

about 48 % drop  if btc does that it goes to 27-28,000,000,000 gh  maybe just past jan  say jan 3 or 4.

If 4 cent power is the floor  based on large farms working with power plants to handle excess power then

1)a farm at 4 cents is making 20usd a month on 1 s-9  with current diff of 5.646  which is 40,000,000,000 gh  coins at 3250

2)a farm at 4 cents is making 20usd a month on 1 s-9 with new diff of 5.106  which is  36,000,000,000 gh   coins at 2950

3)a farm at 4 cents is making 20usd a month on 1 s-9 with a new diff of 4.893 which is 34,500,000,000 gh coins at  2825

so we are at 1)  and 2) is pretty sure to come   3)  coming after 2 I don't know   but all show downtrend in prices  that the excess/leveler farms can handle.

So it is getting more and more likely this goes on just as it is.

yeah  some hosting companys  are going to go down but I see the trend still continuing.

If ltc is the lead indicator then  this goes on.

[Norm MacDonald]

Thanks for the update again Phil. Personally I believe that the Scrypt/Litecoin Diff will be more bouyant or subject to upmoves, as these units seem to be typically run by mid-size or semi-commercial miners that tend more to flip them on and off as profitability fluctuates? Would you agree with this? I suspect a LOT of L3's are sitting on racks just waiting to be plugged in. I also suspect the S-9 crowd are far more committed on floor and infrastructure costs, along with personnel and maintenance costs for typically larger scale ops. It just seems like the S-9 Diff will be a bit more stubborn on moves higher as the overstretched Commercial operations continue to get flushed out.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

Last 30 days :  



High - 55 exahashesPerSecond  
Low  - 31 exahashesPerSecond

Last 7 days :



High - 41 exahashesPerSecond
Low  - 31 exahashesPerSecond

Current Block:   553411  
Current Diff:   5646403851534
Next Difficulty[EST]:    4950720795708 & 5101689291300
Next Difficulty Change[EST] -12.3208% and -9.6471%
Last Retarget:   December 3, 2018 at 11:46 AM
Next Retarget[EST]: December 18, 2018 at 11:58 PM  (in 7d 8h 34m 19s)

It Seems the slope continues.

[Exoskeleton]

I think we should be weary of a sudden spike in Diff soon if the price recovers quickly. This is very likely in the next 6 months.

As it has been pointed out, over 1/3 of the total hash rate from a few months ago that went offline is still around. Most likely heavily in bitmains hands.

Right now they are trying to sell their new S11/S15/T15 miners, so taking their S7/S9 miners offline for a min to tank the diff is a smart move. But as soon as they have sold them and the Btc price is on the upswing you can expect the overall hash rate to at least double if not triple. Quickly. Very, very, quickly. Possibly overnight.

That makes everyones predictions about profitability based on these low diff adjustments go right out the window.

[philipma1957]

I think we should be weary of a sudden spike in Diff soon if the price recovers quickly. This is very likely in the next 6 months.

As it has been pointed out, over 1/3 of the total hash rate from a few months ago that went offline is still around. Most likely heavily in bitmains hands.

Right now they are trying to sell their new S11/S15/T15 miners, so taking their S7/S9 miners offline for a min to tank the diff is a smart move. But as soon as they have sold them and the Btc price is on the upswing you can expect the overall hash rate to at least double if not triple. Quickly. Very, very, quickly. Possibly overnight.

That makes everyones predictions about profitability based on these low diff adjustments go right out the window.

well  4 cents and lower = not much fear

but  even 6 cent power with new gear is an issue.

[Norm MacDonald]

I think we should be weary of a sudden spike in Diff soon if the price recovers quickly. This is very likely in the next 6 months.

As it has been pointed out, over 1/3 of the total hash rate from a few months ago that went offline is still around. Most likely heavily in bitmains hands.

Right now they are trying to sell their new S11/S15/T15 miners, so taking their S7/S9 miners offline for a min to tank the diff is a smart move. But as soon as they have sold them and the Btc price is on the upswing you can expect the overall hash rate to at least double if not triple. Quickly. Very, very, quickly. Possibly overnight.

That makes everyones predictions about profitability based on these low diff adjustments go right out the window.

"If the price recovers quickly." Agreed, of course. Bitmain's problems these days extend well beyond "selling miners". By all accounts, Bitmain was mid-stream into moving and opening large mining capacity in the USA and Canada. Very costly play at the wrong time. Perfect storm for Bitmain. 1) Massive back log of legacy technology miners on the secondary market. 2) massive CAP EX expenditure in New Tech Chips 3) Huge price drop 3) BTC/BCH/BCH SV debacle 4) Plenty of new competition 5) Horrible 7NM tech launch. . I'm sure I've missed a few. 6) Terrible timing for their IPO. I suspect it's not by choice that Bitmain is taking a LOT of Hashing power off the Network. It's now a matter of corporate survival. No more " Have your cake and eat it too" for ole Bitmain. This is a GOOD thing!

[Exoskeleton]

"If the price recovers quickly." Agreed, of course. Bitmain's problems these days extend well beyond "selling miners". By all accounts, Bitmain was mid-stream into moving and opening large mining capacity in the USA and Canada. Very costly play at the wrong time. Perfect storm for Bitmain. 1) Massive back log of legacy technology miners on the secondary market. 2) massive CAP EX expenditure in New Tech Chips 3) Huge price drop 3) BTC/BCH/BCH SV debacle 4) Plenty of new competition 5) Horrible 7NM tech launch. . I'm sure I've missed a few. 6) Terrible timing for their IPO. I suspect it's not by choice that Bitmain is taking a LOT of Hashing power off the Network. It's now a matter of corporate survival. No more " Have your cake and eat it too" for ole Bitmain. This is a GOOD thing!

I don't think that anyone would take a miner down that was profitable unless:

1) They had more efficient gear
2) They had enough to effect the overall hashrate. Thus making it seem like new gear was a way better deal than it really was (Bitmain)

Furthermore I seriously doubt that Bitmain ever had plans to mine in the US or Canada. Not sure where you could possibly get that from.

[minefarmbuy]

This would be the best way to sell gear actually. NOT MINE AS A MANUFACTURER.

[philipma1957]

[...] Furthermore I seriously doubt that Bitmain ever had plans to mine in the US or Canada. Not sure where you could possibly get that from.

articles about a massive setup in texas  were on the net.

[Norm MacDonald]

I don't think that anyone would take a miner down that was profitable unless:

1) They had more efficient gear
2) They had enough to effect the overall hashrate. Thus making it seem like new gear was a way better deal than it really was (Bitmain)

Furthermore I seriously doubt that Bitmain ever had plans to mine in the US or Canada. Not sure where you could possibly get that from.

It's very common knowledge within the informed members of the community. They set up a location in WA under a separate corporate name and Canada as well. I know of at least two Commercial Scale mining operations of massive size that have been contacted by them. Yo can doubt all you want. It doesn't change facts. Are you not aware that Bitmain has been having problems with the Chinese Govt? Apparently not. I'll give you a little head start here, but you do the rest of your own investigating. To ease your "doubts".

https://www.coindesk.com/bitmain-confirms-new-texas-mining-facility

[Sundance_]

yup and alongside the texas links also mined with them in Labrador, Canada, see Google: https://www.greatnorthdata.com/

and they were definitely in on mining in Quebec even if this subject does keep them anonymous and article only suspects them https://www.forbes.com/sites/astanley/2018/10/01/the-future-of-bitcoin-mining-in-quebec-could-rest-on-mondays-parliamentary-elections/#6cf9a1d464f6

[Norm MacDonald]

Anyone else seeing this warning on the Diff calculator site;   https://diff.cryptothis.com/

This site is not secure

This might mean that someone’s trying to fool you or steal any info you send to the server. You should close this site immediately.

Go to your Start page
Details

Haven't been able to open it for 2 days now.

[philipma1957]

it wont open for me but I do not get the not secure warning on safari

this one works

Next difficulty retarget occurs at block 553650.0 (eta -683.5 sec): 4.95687451723e+12 / -12.2% [est.]

as does this one

Bitcoin Difficulty:   5,646,403,851,534
Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,050,629,692,196 (-10.55%)
Adjust time:   After 749 Blocks, About 6.0 days
Hashrate(?):   35,732,954,895 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.5 minutes
3 blocks: 34.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

gray line is current hash not average and it is dropping



9 month is interesting

[stompix]

Their certificate expired...probably.
I've opened it in a vm just to be sure, this is the actual situation:



We're in for another 10%, the market looks bleak, bitmain is starting a cloud mining service (topic got trashed lols).....
Not entirely the happy holiday picture, except for some guys running on solar panels that already recouped the investment  

[philipma1957]

me and buysolar did well

only wish was to have done it bigger.

and to have cashed out better  although we cashed most of our coins out above 13000.

This allows us to not worry about much as long as we don't fold it all back in.

so we are 184 blocks behind  and if diff drops to 4.9 or 5.0  that is around 35,500,000,000 to 36,400,000,000 hash

we may follow up   with the dec 19 to jan 4 with  4.7 diff and 34,000,000,000 hash a -2 to -5% drop

The bottom  is looking like 34,000,000,000 gh and 4.7 diff

if that is accurate

a 4 cent guy  with a s-9

earns 27 a month at a diff of 5.6 and a price of 3488
earns 35 a month at a diff of 4.9 and a price of 3488
earns 40 a month at a diff of 4.7 and a price of 3488

do that downward diff allows for  a lot more  price drop .

I figure 25,000,000,000 of the remaining 37,000,000,000 gh is 4 cents or better

[Norm MacDonald]

Thanks, I got in through Firefox. just bypassed the security warning. I imagine the "real time" updates might be messing up the security certificate verification's. The spread is tightening between -12.8% and 10.5% with a marked downward bias. The trend is still firmly lower. I suppose it's possible to hit -13.00% or a bit lower on next jump.

[tmfp]

I wonder how many S9's will be brought back on stream now that Bitmain's cloud mining setup is dangling some very attractive short term carrots under people's noses?

[Steamtyme]

I dont see this putting to many miners back online. If it were in any way profitable for them to run the gear then they would do it themselves. Then there's the fact that cloud mining generally brings in the newbies, but this market usbt bringing to manu of those along these days. They're about 15 months to late to really soak up profits with a cloud mine. I would also assume they are going to be using there current generation miners because they are stuck with them

Rough price with no tax is about 175 a month for the 50 TH package. That's including the 5 dollars daily for maintenance.

Just like any cloud mining you only gain if the price shoots up down the road and you hold until then.

Either way I cant are it being enough to really affect the overall network hash, really looking forward to another double digit drop - 12% is looking good.

[Norm MacDonald]

I wonder how many S9's will be brought back on stream now that Bitmain's cloud mining setup is dangling some very attractive short term carrots under people's noses?

I looked at their "carrot". It didn't seem attractive? The disclaimer alone was enough to get me to click "exit". The terms are only good for that very second basically. Profitability is very much in question.

[tmfp]

Total disclaimer here: I am not, and never have been, a clouding fan or advocate. But

Rough price with no tax is about 175 a month for the 50 TH package. That's including the 5 dollars daily for maintenance.

Are we looking at the same thing, or am I being stupid?

They are charging $0.49/TH/month.
50TH costs $24.50 for a month, at current price/difficulty mines $233.69 per month minus $195 maintenance ($0.13/T/Day*30*50), gives $38.69 back, = $14.19 profit = 58% roi.

IF my sums are right, then the next question must be: why are a huge company essentially borrowing money at Payday Loan rates?

[philipma1957]

the fees are

13 cents a th a day

so 30 days = $3.90 a th x 14 = $54.60 to run an s-9

or

if you do 100 th

13 usd a day  that is 390 a month for 7 s-9's and a one time fee of 49 usd

so the first month is 439 for 100 th

you could earn around 0.1336 btc which is 464.60 first month.

this means one thing to me bitmain is betting on a massive short here.

so  they get a sure 439 in btc and cash it out right away because they are thinking in 1 month coins = under 3000

[tmfp]

if you do 100 th

13 usd a day  that is 390 a month for 7 s-9's and a one time fee of 49 usd

so the first month is 439 for 100 th

Alloscomp says 100TH will get you $467 at current difficulty, so that's $77 income net of maintenance against an initial cost of $49, $28 profit, 58% ROI.

That's a very attractive return to throw a couple of grand at in current conditions.
My initial point was not to shill for cloud mining but to ask where the hashrate would come from if they attracted, say, a couple of million dollars investment. At $0.49 Th, $2m would account for over 4m TH.


Just saw the conclusion you added there Phil

this means one thing to me bitmain is betting on a massive short here.
so  they get a sure 439 in btc and cash it out right away because they are thinking in 1 month coins = under 3000

Yes, that makes sense.
Also, of course, it would make sense if their short bet was based on something they were about to do anyway, like dumping BTC for liquidity reasons.
Maybe it won't be such a quiet Christmas and New year after all.

[Norm MacDonald]

Bitmain owed Their chip supplier 1 billion $ and only came up with $700, M still owe $300 M. They also have very large CAPX commitments to mining ops in USA and Canada. The ole IPO won't go so well with a negative balance sheet. Bitmain is "Scrambling".


Looks to be bottoming out. This am, looking at between -11.6% to -10.5%. Seems some of the cheap hardware is making it's way back onto the network in anticipation of this drop. Gonna be tough to get a double digit move this time I would guess.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   5,646,403,851,534
Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,028,184,686,250 (-10.95%)
Adjust time:   After 606 Blocks, About 4.8 days
Hashrate(?):   36,394,443,778 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.4 minutes
3 blocks: 34.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

[stompix]

If the price goes down, the s15 are not yet delivered but the diff shows any kind of up movement I could point to only one "culprit" and that would be bitdeer.
And if there is any kind of confirmations they are indeed the ones putting gear back online I'm going to simply ignore everything about mining.

Probably this would be the rotten strawberry on a disgusting icing on a 20 years old cake.

[philipma1957]

sure thing they wipeout hash nest and create bitdeer.

well  think if they put back  enough s-9's  right after this jump  they can make them turn from a small winner to a small loser and just say the gear is losing $$  we will have to shut down.

I could sit and explain this exactly and I think I will.

we went from 53,000,000,000 and will soon be at 36,000,000,000 in 4 days

So let us say that is 17,000,000,000 gh drop or a 17,000,000 th drop

so they will be charging 13 a day for 100 th.  so pay for a month 30 x 13 = 390 + 49 = 439  you pay in cold hard cash/btc

lets say they sell 2,000,000 th that is 20,000 contract for 100 th or 439 x 20,000 = 8,780,000 usd up front.

lets us pretend they use s15's to run this s15's cost say 50 watts a th that is 1.2 kwatts at 4 cents that is 4.8 cents

so their cost is 4.8 cents

they charge 13 cents they make  8.2 cents a day on every th they sell  and they get it up front for the first month.

plus the buy in  of 49 usd for 100 th.

Worse yet since they base the cost at 13 cents  if diff jumps and coins tank  they can shut you down after 15 bad days in a row.

simply no good.

[Norm MacDonald]

This seems to be a highly probable scenario. Same Sh*t, different flies. Unfortunately there is no shortage of " HODL Monkeys " still jumping around to flock to this same old Cloud mining scheme with a different name. Clearly price lows are not in yet and there is not enough pain has been doled out. Oh well, back into the bunker...

Diff low side creeping up 1/2 % a day now. Looks like only a 6% drop in Diff Tuesday. Bitmain strikes again.

[Steamtyme]

Are we looking at the same thing, or am I being stupid?

IF my sums are right, then the next question must be: why are a huge company essentially borrowing money at Payday Loan rates?

No you weren't being stupid at all. There is definitely the best chance at earning a profit from a cloud mining operation available there. At least for 1 month, and even then it isn't guaranteed as we've seen recently no one really knows where the bottom is ATM, or the direction of travel for price.

As has been shown the profit margin is thin - I see the maintenance costs as part of the initial investment as it is a predetermined cost and may be payable up front. For Bitmain though it is cash money in hand now, which may be more important than what you may have next month. That's especially true if as has been speculated here, they have plans to do something they are projecting will cause a price drop.

sure thing they wipeout hash nest and create bitdeer.

Re branding with discounted rates in the beginning is a good strategy to get people in the door.

... Looks like only a 6% drop in Diff Tuesday. Bitmain strikes again.

Yikes Hadn't checked in a couple days; when we were still double digits, either way down is down and I like that.

See I'm torn on what Bitmain and their cloud mining operations are doing to the network at the moment/near future. I don't pay much attention to cloud mining but seeing as they had been running hashnest, what impact are they really going to have with Bitdeer, apart from my thoughts on rebranding. It's just the same shit under a different name, unless it's a totally new facility and infrastructure in addition to previous facilities.

I would say the overall increase in hashrate that will come from Bitmain, is to run their own S15's, they can improve their overall efficiencies keeping their cost the same while increasing the hashrate. We all pay the price in Diff probably having found a floor of support, with low cost massive farms. I'm not sure what they are paying but I have heard crazy low numbers like .02/KWH.

[philipma1957]

I think we are still  closer to 9% not 6%

Current Pace:   89.1811%  (1510 / 1693.18 expected, 183.18 behind)
Current Difficulty:   5646403851534.721XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 5039399360183 and 5073760686945
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.7503% and -10.1417%
Previous Retarget:   December 3, 2018 at 6:46 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 8:58 PM  (in 3d 19h 59m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 11:32 PM  (in 3d 22h 33m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 14h 11m 36s and 15d 16h 45m 41s

Note: I use firefox to open the site as the certificate is expired.  Be careful if you do not know how to do this.
We are 183 blocks off pace that is the number to watch.

Look  truth is we don't see bitmain's books.  For 2017 or 2018

they may have made as much as 20 billion usd in 2017

yeah they lost  in 2017  maybe 1.5 billion

that  would mean plus 18.5 billion

It may not be that good.

So say they cleared 10 billion last year  and cashed tons of coins dropping prices  this whole year. For a loss of 2 billion.
that is a net of 8 billion.

They could have a big cash stash for all we know.  And be poised to make a monster move.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

Last 7 days:




High - 44 exahashesPerSecond
Low -  31 exahashesPerSecond

[Norm MacDonald]

I think we are still  closer to 9% not 6%

[...]

Thanks for the warning Phil. I think your Bitmain revenue numbers are off. They touted inflated numbers at 4 Billion last year. AMD didn't make that much since their inception. I found $4 billion highly suspect. So given the mess they've created, I strongly believe that Bitmain is extremely close to insolvency. Jihan Wu and his "fight to the death" for BCH, likely was referring to his own death. There is little question  that Bitmain was/is a LARGE holder of BTC/BCH. I'm willing to bet that they have lost 50% of their liquid assets in this. It would explain this harebrained Bitdeer illusion. Too bad there are people stupid enough to get back in bed with them. This looks like desperation to me on Bitmain's part. SO many metrics working against them now. They definitely deserve it.

[philipma1957]

yeah  I clocked them at 135,000 btc Jan 2017  so 135,000 x 950 = 128,250,000

If they held everyone of those coins from jan 2017 to dec 2017

they would have  both btc and bch  value of 1 of each was about 22,000 dec 2017

so 22,000/950 =  23 fold on the coins

or 128,250,000 x 23 = 2,970,000,000   

that is under a 2.85 billion profit

and it is saying perfect holding action of the coins they had jan 2017

with sale in dec 2017

now there was a good drop on dec 7 2017 coins were over 18k and a big sell dropped to 13.7

coins went up to 20,035 on dec 17 dropped to 12.2k on dec 18th

they went to 16.7 k on  dec 27 dropped to 12.9k on dec 30

17k on jan 6 2018 dropped to 10k on jan 17

so 4 big dumps made then how much was bitmain?

[agente]

Here Bitmain launched Bitdeer! Interesting..

[philipma1957]

well just because the bet does not favor the player many like the idea of no gear no heat etc.

and they hope to get lucky.

hash wise the move is 35,000,000,000 to 38,500,000,000 gh

that is 3,500,000,000gh or

3500000000/14000 = 250,000 s-9's

3,500,000,000/20,000 = 175,000 s-11's

3,500,000,000/40,000 = 87,500 s-15's

it is also 3,500,000 th

so say 3,000,000th is bitdeer

3000000/100 = 30,000  100th contracts for 439 or $13,170,000  in btc that they simply cashed out fast.

zero risk to them

coins were about 3400  and now about 3229  due to the selling pressure they made

and it goes on.

[Norm MacDonald]

I have no doubt about this. I watched their order flows on my trading platform as I was constantly focusing on some Yield enhancement trades I work on. Their footprint is so obvious. They are not very clever or strategic in their order executions. First of all, most of these "Block Type" orders are on the platforms during the daylight hours in China. Second, they put very large "block sell" orders in at a price to insure that they are in "maker" order status. This allows them to execute at low to no fees. Obviously this means they must rely on a buyer to lift their resting offer. When these " on the offer orders" do not trade, they simply chase the market down and continually adjust their offer price lower. Always with the remainder of the un-executed volume of the original offer. I, and I'm sure many other experienced traders that are much larger than me, just wait and watch until these fools chase the market into resting bids well below where they started trying to sell. As soon as I see real bid side volume appear I just race in front of that and get long. 9 times out of 10 it's a free trade. Once Bitmain's large offer is executed, there is nothing but air on the offer side for $20, $50, sometimes $100 in upside price. Try it some time. You'll be amazed. I could literally retire off the terrible execution Bitmain employs, on one day of their sell orders. They waste $100's of thousands of dollars daily ( Nightly ) as a result of their amateur trading stupidity.

[mikeywith]

I think one of the main reasons for the recent spike in hashrate was the migration of the hashpower from BCH and SV due to these 2 shitcoins dropping harder in price than BTC.

The last 7 days change in price is as follows :

1- BTC :  -9.59%
2- BCH : -24.45%
3-  SV : -20.06%

Last week it was more than 20% more profitable to mine BCH and/or SV over mining BTC

looking at this chart >



on 12/12/2018 hashrate for BCH dropped from 1,620PTH to 672PH and currently at 867PH
on 13/12/2018 hashrate for SV dropped from 1,729PH to 690PH and currently at 1,130PH

I am pretty sure this case applies to every other SHA-256 based coin, it is quite usual during a bear market for people to turn to mining BTC as it usually has the least drop in fiat value among other coins, but i am guessing whatever we see on the difficulty chart is simply a dead cat bounce, and more dips are coming if the price does not make any considerable spike to the upside, more people will have to leave as many of them are probably mining at lose by now.

[philipma1957]

@mikeywith

good info so I gave you a merit.

[mikeywith]

@mikeywith

good info so I gave you a merit.

who does not love merits ? thanks buddy

[philipma1957]

who does not love merits ? thanks buddy

your info helps track the trends it was worth the points.

[Norm MacDonald]

A good example of how transient the Hashing power is today. BTC rallies $350.00 and Machines get turned back on in an instant.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   5,646,403,851,534
Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,140,615,742,481 (-8.96%)     This was -10.75% just last night.
Adjust time:   After 126 Blocks, About 22.4 hours
Hashrate(?):   39,683,393,032 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.7 minutes
3 blocks: 32.0 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

I'm willing to bet that without new lows in BTC the next jump will be....well... a "jump".

[philipma1957]

be interesting to see if it is 1-3%  or a bigger number.

[Norm MacDonald]

be interesting to see if it is 1-3%  or a bigger number.

I gotta wonder...the wild card in the deck now is, do more miners come on due to the drop or do more fall off due to overbuilt, overpriced operations finally bleeding out? Based on your recent analysis, without new lows in price, we may see a type of equilibrium on difficulty moves for the near term for those paying around .055 per KWH. I am writing calls against my BTC position today because this " revived hashing power " is basically in need of USD's to pay overhead and expenses. Once Mining Pool deposits hit tonight in the wee hours, we should see a selling of any recent miner earnings. I'm taking a stand at $3,500.00 - $3,600.00 at least for the next week or two.

[mikeywith]

[...]

I'm willing to bet that without new lows in BTC the next jump will be....well... a "jump".

I doubt it will be a jump , it could be less % to the downside but most likely not a jump. I am almost certain than a good amount of miners are now running at loss or break even (which is a loss too), but many people won't turn their miners off immediately and just hopping that by the time they have to pay their bills this bear market would have ended. and since this is not likely the case, then sooner or later they will have to go offline.

[minefarmbuy]

I expect an upswing, new gear is hitting racks. Just makes sense.

[mikeywith]

Dec 18 2018   5,106,422,924,659   -9.56%   36,553,199,102 GH/s
Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,288,075,498,978 (+3.56%)
Adjust time:   After 1972 Blocks, About 13.2 days
Hashrate(?):   38,179,255,728 GH/s

we are back to late Jun difficulty which is not bad. 

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

High - 51 exahashes
Low -  31 exahashes

Difficulty retarget

Date EST - Jan 1st, 10:02    -
Remaining    1 week, 6 days (1907 blk)    -
Change    +4.21%    -

[Steamtyme]

we are back to late Jun difficulty which is not bad.

Nice to see. So we didn't quite make it for another 2 digit drop but it was good to see it stayed close. Now lets get back to some late June BTC prices.

I think this is where we find some more flat line stagnant Diff adjustments. Maybe 1 or 2 rounds. Sure there should be some new gear hitting the racks, but unless they are profitable still at the moment they arrive I don't expect them to run. This would be similar to the people who bought pallets of Canaan hardware in Nov/Dec, and then by Feb never set them up instead opting to try and sell to profitable markets.

We'll probably see a return of some large centers that have been in a small Limbo. They may have shutdown for a bit to see what happens( no sense pissing away money on an electric bill), possibly used the time for facility maintenance. A lot of them will be profitable again for now and if this is the start of a slow steady climb again, they'll be glad they flipped the switch back on.

I'm guessing we stay within a +3% to -3% window. Barring any large swings in price.

[windjc]

Again, price leads. Hashrate lags behind. Chances are we still have 6+ months more of bear market. Hash rate mostly likely isn’t going to do much.

[philipma1957]

well  since first day of thread

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Dec 18 2018   5,106,422,924,659   -9.56%   36,553,199,102 GH/s
Dec 03 2018   5,646,403,851,534   -15.13%   40,418,533,137 GH/s
Nov 16 2018   6,653,303,141,405   -7.39%   47,626,199,005 GH/s
Nov 01 2018   7,184,404,942,701   0.02%   51,427,973,784 GH/s
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s

we are back to this

Jun 19 2018   5,077,499,034,879   2.77%   36,346,153,834 GH/s

but price was 6650  and is now 3700

so  7454/5,077  = 1.468

6650/3700 = 1.792

that means miners profits are down  prices needs to be 6650/1.468 = 4529

so I say diff is leading price = rally to 4529 soon

and windjc says price is leading diff.

So diff will drop more 7454/1.792 = a diff of 4159  is correct.

and both are not accounting for better more efficient gear.

which means a blended number say flat diff and better price .

but who really knows

[windjc]

Hash rate is a looooong lagger. Its not immediate. Price is leading by about 8-10 months. Look at when price peaked and when hash peaked.

[mikeywith]

I will take June prices  

i agree I think the difficulty will adjust slowly from now on, there are no probably no more large swings , i am guessing pretty soon we will enter a low volume market with barley not a single considerable move. the difficulty should act accordingly.

[HagssFIN]

The price is going up a little now, close to 4.1k USD.

[philipma1957]

Hash rate is a looooong lagger. Its not immediate. Price is leading by about 8-10 months. Look at when price peaked and when hash peaked.

It no longer 6 to 8 months  lag time as we have 15,000,000,000 gh  maybe 18,000,000,000 gh off line.

if coins went to 12,000 usd in 2 days  diff would jump quickly

[mikeywith]

[...]

when i saw this yesterday, i was like "what is phil smoking ?  " thinking price will follow diff. ! but guess what, we are so close to 4.5k . i will be adding this strategy to my TA if we do hit 4.5k.

[Norm MacDonald]

Well I can say one thing with absolute, utter certainty. Bitcoin difficulty will now, absolutely, without a doubt, " go sideways for the rest of the year ".

HA! Ya see what I did there.

[Steamtyme]

Queue massive price run up, followed by 14 EH online, Diff adjustment before the ball drops lol.

I really don't want to see any of those things. Slow and steady would be nice for the foreseeable.

[windjc]

It no longer 6 to 8 months  lag time as we have 15,000,000,000 gh  maybe 18,000,000,000 gh off line.

if coins went to 12,000 usd in 2 days  diff would jump quickly

right right. but that would just be hash following price again.

[mikeywith]

Well I can say one thing with absolute, utter certainty. Bitcoin difficulty will now, absolutely, without a doubt, " go sideways for the rest of the year ".

HA! Ya see what I did there.

very wrong bro, do you want to bet that btc difficulty will not go side ways for the rest of the year?

my bet is (btc difficulty will remain flat as hell with no change at all for the rest of the year) 

[philipma1957]

right right. but that would just be hash following price again.

no

chicken first then the egg

not egg then the chicken  

My point is  having  this much decent gear offline  is a new thing  so next 2 months will be fun.

Oh  not to brag or say I told you so but

I hope the S9 stays profitable for at least that long lol just starting to making ROI now lol

but in all seriousness it seems that with so many people jumping in on mining that the difficulty is raising faster than manufacturers can produce equipment that would prove profitable.

at least that is my opinion.

It has happened before and when it did the diff dropped off for a while.

Except now there are more large farms coming on line than ever, it wont flatten out its going to continue to rise steadily. I know a few hundred megawatts worth of places going online in the next few months alone.

Forecasting has been and always will be a fools errand when it comes to this industry. There are just too many variables to break it down into simple numbers like you are doing in your post. While its true if things stay static, the outlook is bleak but I highly doubt that will stay that way for long.

I don't bother with long term except when we go low margin like now.

As I agree it is a fool's errand.

Plus game always was cheap power + cheap gear = winner.

lots of cheap gear right now  and if you have cheap power this is a good time for you.

I know you have good power prices.

I  like to go back and read page one every once in a while

[sidehack]

I wouldn't mind a price run-up. Get back to the ~$6.5k equilibrium we were around for the last six months or so. Nothing crazy like, just... stable.

[philipma1957]

I wouldn't mind a price run-up. Get back to the ~$6.5k equilibrium we were around for the last six months or so. Nothing crazy like, just... stable.

Maybe you get your Christmas wish.

If 2018 was a down year.

I think 2019 will be a wtf happened type year.

[digital$]

Maybe you get your Christmas wish.

If 2018 was a down year.

I think 2019 will be a wtf happened type year.

hahahaa...agreed and well said!!

[Norm MacDonald]

Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,399,698,568,915 (+5.74%)

This will be 8-9% by the next epoch. Mark my words.

[philipma1957]

always hard to be sure but it is going up.

It was a nice consolidation  dropping from the peak of 57,000,000,000 ghs to the low of 33,500,000,000.  We are now close to 43,000,000,000 ghs right now real time.

BTW  if hash rises more the next adjustment will be 12-31-2018 not 1-1-2019

[Norm MacDonald]

... BTW  if hash rises more the next adjustment will be 12-31-2018 not 1-1-2019

I KNOW!! I saw that! Ruined my proclamation!!  LOL.

[minefarmbuy]

Market shift is helping bring hash back. S9's are more profitable at higher power rates. I think at my $0.10 rate I'm "profiting" 0.13/day. Then I'm mining and holding.

I'm wondering with the talk of pulling $BTC from exchanges and hot wallets on Jan 3rd, with less $BTC in market in a few days if we'll see a price surge with the added scarcity. there are still a lot of miners who mine to a pool or directly to an exchange or hot wallet. Myself including till this summer.

edit: of course market dips when I post numbers.

[philipma1957]

gray line  with current hash is way up!

and the jump may come on dec 31 not Jan 1

Bitcoin Difficulty:   5,106,422,924,659
Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,421,368,568,694 (+6.17%)
Adjust time:   After 996 Blocks, About 6.4 days
Hashrate(?):   41,765,456,219 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.9 minutes
6 blocks: 55.8 minutes

[TheYankeesWin!]

Phil  looks like bitmain's bitdeer sold a ton of hash.   I think  the trend has switched back and we will see diff go up.

The only thing that could stop diff going up is a huge price drop to the level of 2200-2400 .

That would kill bitdeer.

[philipma1957]

@ yankees  bitdeer is charging 10 cents a th maintenance.

so 1 th makes 19 cents a day  with current diff and with current price.   diff jumps very soon  and that 19 cents goes to 18 cents  if price stays at

3900   your cost is 10 cents  you earn 18 cents.
3500   your cost is 10 cents  you earn 16 cents.
3000   your cost is 10 cents  you earn 13 cents.
2500   your cost is 10 cents  you earn 11 cents
2000   your cost is 10 cents you  earn   9 cents you are in the red they shut you down

now you also paid for a contract  and it does not last long.

hash nest  you  purchased the share and did not lose it unless it went into the red.

bitdeer you purchase hash for 90 days or for 6 months and it is over.

so they have multiple deals with bitdeer that sucked people in    Buyers thought  I clear 8 cents x 100 = 8 bucks a day

the 90 day deal costs 684 for 100 th   so 90 x 8 bucks =  720   I turn 684 into 720  seems good.

well the jump  means they earn less.

they say they have s15 powered deals

they say thy have s9 powered deals

boy did not hashnest
have  s9 power deals
and s7 powered deals

let me see the s9's  or do they just runs s15s and charge you power  cost of s9's

where are the safety checks for this abuse  or potential abuse?

This type of deal  is very speculative and completely in bitmain's favor.

They charge 13 cents maintenance  for an s9
They charge 10 cents maintenance for an s15/t15

[agente]

Bitdeer contract: 120days 500th

Costs: 3792 + 0.1/T/D (6000)= 9792

Income today 500t: 96usd

Income: 96 x 120 = 11.520 less pool fees

17,6% less pool fees

Why Bitmain want to share income of s15 in their farms with customers? Only one reason... they are sure the price of BTC will fall down again.

[rifleman74]

... Why Bitmain want to share income of s15 in their farms with customers? Only one reason... they are sure the price of BTC will fall down again.

Because they're still all-in on B-Trash.

[fanatic26_]

Why Bitmain want to share income of s15 in their farms with customers? Only one reason... they are sure the price of BTC will fall down again.

*BUZZER*

Incorrect. There are a number of reasons for them to do this.

The electricity prices they are charging are double what they pay.
They are still selling you a machine, through a very indirect and convoluted method, that you may not even want to retrieve at the end of your contract. They also can keep the asset on the books until this happens.
On the books, having GUARANTEED monthly income versus crypto income that can vary wildly from day to day is extremely important, especially for a company trying to forecast or go public.

There are other reasons as well, I just wanted to give a few to prevent the spread of misinformation. Remember, when you make a claim not based on facts (such as what I quoted), there is a chance someone else will read it and think it is a fact, when it is not. This type of misinformation is potentially dangerous and damaging to the community and industry as a whole.

[philipma1957]

*BUZZER*

Incorrect. There are a number of reasons for them to do this.

The electricity prices they are charging are double what they pay.
They are still selling you a machine, through a very indirect and convoluted method, that you may not even want to retrieve at the end of your contract. They also can keep the asset on the books until this happens.
On the books, having GUARANTEED monthly income versus crypto income that can vary wildly from day to day is extremely important, especially for a company trying to forecast or go public.

There are other reasons as well, I just wanted to give a few to prevent the spread of misinformation. Remember, when you make a claim not based on facts (such as what I quoted), there is a chance someone else will read it and think it is a fact, when it is not. This type of misinformation is potentially dangerous and damaging to the community and industry as a whole.

I agree with this part

4 cent power on a 50 watt a th miner the s15 cost them   50 x 24 = 1200 watts at 4 cents = 4.8 cents they charge 10 cents 10 - 4.6 = 5.2 cents.

and I think but can not prove  they use the s15 and tell you it is the s9  thus charge 13 cents a th getting

13 - 4.8 cents = 8.2 cents.

my great annoyance  is they do not address this issue
and they did not address it when they were hash nest and had the opportunity to do it with s-7 and s-9

ie a license  to steal

as for certainty that btc price drops no it is not certain but the false mining possibility allows downward pressure on profit.

this cloud mining is most certainly why hash rate jumped up. close to 8%

I really would not be vocal or complain if they gave some proof they are using s9s' for the s9 contracts they sell.

[Norm MacDonald]

*BUZZER*

Incorrect. There are a number of reasons for them to do this.

The electricity prices they are charging are double what they pay.
They are still selling you a machine, through a very indirect and convoluted method, that you may not even want to retrieve at the end of your contract. They also can keep the asset on the books until this happens.
On the books, having GUARANTEED monthly income versus crypto income that can vary wildly from day to day is extremely important, especially for a company trying to forecast or go public.

There are other reasons as well, I just wanted to give a few to prevent the spread of misinformation. Remember, when you make a claim not based on facts (such as what I quoted), there is a chance someone else will read it and think it is a fact, when it is not. This type of misinformation is potentially dangerous and damaging to the community and industry as a whole.

All true, and let's not forget the influx of cold hard cash into a balance sheet that is choking on it's own fumes. This Bitdeer scam cash may just help keep them alive. I have serious doubts that they will execute this IPO within the time frame previously stated. No underwriter in their right mind would get involved in that given Bitmain's current travails.

[philipma1957]

the year is over So I  locked the thread.

Solid jump due to bitdeer

Dec 31 2018   5,618,595,848,853   10.03%   40,219,475,700 GH/s

thread opened on this day below

Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s

and we have  quite a drop  from 10/4/2018 to 12/31/2018

all info above is from bitcoinwisdom.com

as is the chart from below.

we may stay flat if the bump was bitdeer coming online

[philipma1957]

Bump and lock cleaning up some threads.

At mods these will fall off please leave them be.