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Market Fundamental Analysis for January 2, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

11:30 EET. GBP - Manufacturing PMI Index

16:45 EET. USD - Manufacturing Business Activity Index

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3480, keeping part of the gains after a strong 2025 for the pound and a weaker dollar. With liquidity still thin in the first business days of the year, headlines can have an outsized impact, so short-term swings may be sharper than usual even with a light macro calendar.

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The main driver for the dollar remains expectations for the Fed’s policy trajectory in 2026 and the broader debate around future central-bank guidance. If incoming U.S. data on the labor market and inflation confirms the economy’s resilience, traders may scale back bets on rapid rate cuts, supporting the dollar and triggering a corrective move lower in GBP/USD.

For the pound, risks are linked to the Bank of England having already moved into rate cuts while keeping a cautious stance, balancing inflation against weak growth. The market also watches the state of public finances and business activity in the UK: weaker confidence typically lifts demand for the dollar as a reserve currency. Under these conditions, a decline from current levels looks more likely.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3480, SL 1.3510, TP 1.3390

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Market Fundamental Analysis for January 5, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index

USDJPY:

USD/JPY on Monday, January 5, is trading near 157.0–157.3. The dollar is supported at the start of the first full week of 2026 amid expectations for a busy US data calendar. With global risk demand relatively steady, interest remains in strategies where the yen is used as a funding currency, which weakens it.

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The spotlight is on US manufacturing data and positioning ahead of the employment report later in the week. If indicators confirm economic resilience, it becomes more difficult for the market to expect rapid Fed rate cuts, which generally supports the dollar. Additional uncertainty comes from anticipation of the decision on the next Fed Chair, which can quickly shift perceptions of future policy.

On the Japanese side, the yen is supported by discussions about a gradual tightening of monetary policy in 2026, but this process is typically stretched over time. In addition, Japanese authorities periodically signal readiness to respond to excessive yen weakness, so sharp moves may come with higher volatility. For now, however, yield differentials and external demand for the dollar keep the risk skewed toward USD/JPY upside.

Trading recommendation: SELL 156.00, SL 156.75, TP 153.75

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Weekly outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 09 January 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 4415.50, SL 4380.00, TP 4522.00​

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Gold starts the week near 4415.50 per ounce: thin trading at the beginning of the year has amplified reactions to news from Venezuela and broader geopolitical tension, lifting demand for safe-haven assets. Support also comes from expectations of lower US interest rates in 2026 and continued buying by central banks.

For the week of January 5–9, the focus is on US data on business activity and the labor market, with the key event being Friday’s jobs report. Weaker figures could strengthen interest in gold, while strong numbers may boost the dollar and cool the market temporarily.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4415.50, SL 4380.00, TP 4522.00

#SP500: BUY 6858, SL 6778, TP 7098​

The #SP500 is holding around 6858 at the start of the first full week of 2026: investors are weighing geopolitics and oil, but the main guide remains expectations for US interest rates. After a strong finish to 2025, the market enters the week with a cautious tone.

The week of January 5–9 is packed with US statistics, with Friday’s employment report as the highlight. Moderate data would support equities through hopes of lower borrowing costs, while a surprise rise in inflation expectations and yields could increase pressure on the stock market.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6858, SL 6778, TP 7098

#BRENT: SELL 60.43, SL 62.10, TP 55.40​

#BRENT is trading near 60.43 per barrel: news around Venezuela has added sharp swings, but the market sees no major supply disruptions for now. OPEC+ is keeping current output settings, and talk of potential supply growth ahead is capping prices.

For the week of January 5–9, the spotlight is on demand signals via US statistics and updates from China, as well as the regular US inventory figures. If demand stays soft and the dollar strengthens, oil risks sliding; however, tighter sanctions or logistical disruptions could quickly restore support.

Trading recommendation: SELL 60.43, SL 62.10, TP 55.40

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Market Fundamental Analysis for January 6, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is holding near 1.17 as the dollar stays steady at the start of the first full trading week of the year. Market participants are gradually moving away from sharp reactions to geopolitical headlines, but demand for the US dollar remains supported by a preference for more defensive assets.

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The focus is on US employment and inflation data, which shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy. Recent industry-related readings pointed to cooling activity; however, the market still prices in no change at the next meeting and remains highly sensitive to upcoming releases.

On the eurozone side, concerns about growth momentum and the resilience of demand continue to cap the euro’s upside. Against this backdrop, a moderate strengthening bias for the dollar persists, and the pair may extend its decline if US news flow comes in relatively strong.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1740, SL 1.1780, TP 1.1620

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Market Fundamental Analysis for January 7, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD – ADP Employment Change

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3510, keeping the pound’s gains after a strong start to the week. The British currency is supported by improved overall investor sentiment and reduced concerns about the sustainability of the UK’s fiscal policy, which lowers the additional risk premium embedded in the pound.

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An additional factor remains the interest-rate differential: UK rates stay relatively high, so demand for yield-differential strategies supports the pound in a calm market environment. The market is also closely watching political signals about potentially closer economic cooperation between the UK and the European Union—such expectations improve the medium-term outlook for capital inflows.

At the same time, in the short term the main source of sharp swings for the pair is U.S. employment data and the Fed’s signals on the future rate path. If the statistics point to a slowdown in the economy, the dollar may weaken and allow GBP/USD to consolidate above current levels. Stronger figures, by contrast, could bring demand back to the dollar and trigger a pullback in the pound.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3515, SL 1.3485, TP 1.3605

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Market Fundamental Analysis for January 8, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

USDJPY:

On Thursday, January 8, USD/JPY is holding around 156.80. The market is waiting ahead of tomorrow’s US employment report: recent indicators have been mixed, with signs of slower hiring alongside continued resilience in the services sector.

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For the dollar, the key question is how quickly the Federal Reserve may be able to move toward rate cuts in 2026. If labour-market data turns out weaker than expected, pressure on the dollar could increase. Sentiment is also influenced by US political and trade-related uncertainty, which can shift demand toward defensive currencies.

From Japan’s side, the backdrop offers support to the yen: the Bank of Japan points to gradual improvement across regions and expects wage growth to continue, which strengthens the case for further rate increases. With policy expectations diverging between the US and Japan, the pair retains downside potential—so a sell bias for USD/JPY remains preferable.

Trading recommendation: SELL 156.80, SL 157.20, TP 155.60

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Crypto is charging higher again: BTCUSD and the pack are ready to run

In December, our clients most actively traded cryptocurrencies such as BTCUSD, ETHUSD, BNBUSD, SOLUSD, and XRPUSD—and these instruments delivered the highest share of profitable trades. Today’s review focuses on the crypto market: demand from major investors, news from large corporations, and the ongoing development of leading blockchain platforms are setting the tone for early 2026.

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Growth outlook for cryptocurrencies in Q1 2026:

• BTCUSD — strong interest from institutional investors and the expansion of exchange-traded crypto products support demand even during pullbacks.
  
• ETHUSD — increasing network usage and progress toward faster, cheaper transfers create room for strengthening in a calm external environment.
  
• SOLUSD — active project development and rising attention from major market participants point to further upside potential if news remains positive.
  
• BNBUSD — ecosystem service growth and infrastructure upgrades provide support, though price moves may be sharp.
  
• TONUSD — expansion of Telegram-related services and user tools may drive additional demand if adoption momentum continues.
  

FreshForex analysts believe that in the coming months the market will be shaped by three key factors: overall global market sentiment, inflows and outflows into public crypto instruments, and news around the development of major networks. Even under a positive scenario, prudent risk limits should be set in advance.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for January 9, 2026 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

09.01 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1655. The US dollar is supported by expectations for fresh US employment data and by the market reassessing whether the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in January. In this environment, any surprise in the data can quickly shift rate expectations and increase volatility in the pair.

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For the euro, restraining factors include softer inflation and the impact of the European Central Bank’s recent rate cut. The market is assessing whether domestic demand in the euro area is strong enough for steady growth and how capital flows will react to the yield gap between the US and Europe.

If the employment report comes in stronger than expected, the dollar typically gains additional support. With a moderately negative backdrop for the euro, the preference is to sell with a protective stop above current fluctuations and a target below current levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1655, SL 1.1685, TP 1.1565

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Market Fundamental Analysis for January 12, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

On Monday, January 12, EUR/USD is holding near 1.1660, reflecting a softer US dollar after reports of an investigation involving the Fed’s leadership and a rise in market nervousness. Investors are pricing in higher uncertainty around the US rate path and temporarily reducing demand for the dollar, while also rotating into safe-haven assets and gold.

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On the US side, the picture is mixed: recent labor-market data point to resilient employment, so the probability of a rapid policy easing by the Fed has diminished. At the same time, the market is awaiting the release of December consumer inflation data — an upside surprise could quickly restore support for the dollar, while a moderate print would strengthen expectations for a rate cut later in 2026.

The euro is supported by eurozone data: December inflation returned to around the 2% area, reinforcing the case for the ECB to pause after a series of rate cuts in 2024–2025. If the ECB keeps current policy settings while the Fed remains constrained by both inflation risks and political noise, the balance of factors still favors a gradual appreciation of EUR/USD.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1660, SL 1.1640, TP 1.1720

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