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[FreshForex]

#BRENT surged: what’s happening?

Recently, #BRENT climbed from the $70 area to an intraday peak of about $119.50 per barrel, and then remained noticeably above previous levels. The market pushed prices higher not because of abstract expectations, but due to a real threat of disruptions to oil supplies from the Persian Gulf. At first, investors priced in fears of escalation around Iran, and later saw actual shipment problems and production cuts from major producers.

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5 factors behind the rally:

• Escalation around Iran sharply increased anxiety in the oil market. Strikes and retaliatory actions in the region forced buyers to urgently price in the risk of a major supply disruption.
  
• The Strait of Hormuz came under threat — a key route for global oil. More than 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through it, so even a partial disruption immediately pushes prices higher.
  
• The problems moved from expectations to real restrictions. Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia began cutting production because exporting oil became more difficult, while storage capacity is limited.
  
• The market did not believe that increased OPEC+ production would quickly calm the situation. The announced increase of 206 thousand barrels per day looked too small compared to the potential loss of much larger volumes.
  
• Major banks and analysts started raising oil forecasts. Goldman Sachs warned that #BRENT could rise above $100 if disruptions through Hormuz are not resolved quickly, which further fueled buying.
  

After the sharp surge, #BRENT corrected toward the $90 per barrel level, as the market partially removed the maximum risk premium from prices. Investors are no longer pricing in the most severe supply disruption scenario, but tensions in the Middle East still prevent oil from returning to previous levels.

FreshForex analysts believe that the pullback from the highs does not mean the upside potential is exhausted. The market continues to closely monitor developments in the region, and any new supply disruption or escalation could quickly push #BRENT higher again. Oil is now moving not on panic, but on a more measured assessment of risks.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 11, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

14:30 EET. USD — Consumer Price Index / Core Consumer Price Index (excluding food and energy)

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is holding near 1.3450 on Wednesday, but the external backdrop remains unfavorable for the pound. Escalating tensions in the Middle East support demand for the dollar and push oil prices higher, which for the UK means a risk of higher inflation and pressure on real incomes. In such conditions, market participants more often reduce positions in risk-sensitive currencies and move into the dollar.

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Investors are also reassessing expectations for the Bank of England: rising energy costs reduce the room for rapid policy easing, while simultaneously worsening the outlook for an economy dependent on consumer demand. For now, the balance of factors favors caution, while the dollar benefits from its status as a global settlement currency and from capital inflows into US assets.

US data—especially inflation—remains an additional driver for the pair. Stronger inflation readings increase the likelihood that tight financial conditions in the US will persist, supporting the dollar. Against this backdrop, it is difficult for the pound to stage a sustained recovery: the combination of external price shocks and uncertainty around domestic demand dynamics keeps downside risks for GBP/USD in place.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3450, SL 1.3465, TP 1.3360

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 12, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

14:30 EET. USD - Initial Jobless Claims

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is rising toward the 159.10–159.20 area on Thursday, as the US dollar continues to draw support from expensive oil and a reassessment of US rate expectations. The market believes inflation risks have increased, while the probability of quick policy easing by the Federal Reserve has declined. This is unfavorable for the yen, as Japan remains a major energy importer.

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he latest data on Japanese wholesale prices showed annual growth slowing to 2.0% in February, but the effect of the Middle East conflict has hardly been reflected there yet. Reuters notes that the yen-denominated import price index accelerated to its highest level since July 2024. This limits the room for a rapid rate increase by the Bank of Japan and leaves the yen vulnerable.

Another factor supporting the pair is that even after the December rate increase, the Bank of Japan’s policy rate stands at only 0.75%, while the market still sees a higher premium in dollar-denominated assets. Talks about possible action by the authorities may intensify, but for now the decisive factor remains the yield gap and the effect of expensive oil on the Japanese economy. Therefore, the baseline scenario for USD/JPY today suggests that the upward bias is likely to remain in place.

Trading recommendation: BUY 159.15, SL 158.85, TP 160.05

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 13, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

13.03 14:30 EET. USD - Gross Domestic Product

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1510 on Friday after several sessions of decline, as the dollar continues to maintain an advantage amid stronger demand for safe-haven assets. The main driver remains the jump in oil prices caused by the conflict around Iran and threats to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. For the currency market, this means stronger inflation risks and a reassessment of US rate expectations: the market is now pricing in notably less easing than it was at the beginning of March, while rising US Treasury yields continue to support the dollar.

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The situation is more complicated for the euro. The eurozone is more dependent on external energy supplies, so expensive oil simultaneously worsens growth prospects and increases price pressure. Recent data showed inflation in the bloc accelerating to 1.9%, while the core figure rose to 2.4%, prompting the market to talk about a firmer stance from the European Central Bank. However, this backdrop is not giving the euro sustainable support at the moment: investors fear that the energy shock may prove more damaging for the region’s economy than for the United States.

Additional pressure on the pair comes from the broader shift into defensive assets ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve and ECB meetings. As long as oil remains elevated and market participants continue to reduce expectations of an early US rate cut, the dollar looks stronger than the single currency. On the current date, the base-case scenario remains further weakness in EUR/USD, with selling positions taking priority from current levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1510, SL 1.1540, TP 1.1420

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