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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 30, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

17:30 EET. USD — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to deliver a speech

GBPUSD:

The pound is holding near 1.3250, but pressure from the dollar persists. The market remains cautious: higher energy prices due to the Middle East conflict are increasing inflation risks and pushing investors toward safe-haven assets, while the dollar is gaining demand as the most liquid currency.

The UK picture is mixed. Higher fuel and raw material prices increase the risk of faster inflation, so market participants are discussing the likelihood of stricter action from the Bank of England. At the same time, rising costs can cool consumption and business activity, which limits the pound’s resilience.

In the US, expectations that rates will remain high are still a strong argument in favor of the dollar: resilient economic data and new Fed signals may strengthen capital inflows into dollar assets. For today, the base case is continued dollar advantage and a gradual weakening in GBP/USD.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3250, SL 1.3270, TP 1.3190

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Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 03 April 2026

XAUUSD: SELL 4505.39, SL 4520.00, TP 4370.00

Gold is holding near $4,505.39 per ounce, but the market is increasingly pricing in the risk that high energy prices will fuel inflation and force the Fed to keep rates at current levels for longer. This supports the U.S. dollar and makes bonds more attractive, temporarily reducing interest in gold as a safe haven.

This week, the spotlight is on Jerome Powell’s remarks and key U.S. labor-market data. If the tone remains cautious and offers no hint of an imminent rate cut, pressure on prices may intensify, although geopolitical headlines can still trigger sharp but short-lived bursts of demand.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4505.39, SL 4520.00, TP 4370.00

#SP500: SELL 6377, SL 6400, TP 6150

The S&P 500 is starting the week near 6,377 points amid rising oil prices and growing inflation concerns. Expensive energy increases business costs and weighs on consumer spending, making investors more cautious and prompting them to reduce exposure to risk assets.

The focus is on Fed signals and a batch of U.S. data on employment and business activity. Strong figures could reinforce expectations that rates will stay higher for longer, while weak data could intensify fears of an economic slowdown. In both cases, choppy trading and elevated volatility are likely.

Trading recommendation: SELL 6377, SL 6400, TP 6150

#BRENT: BUY 115.30, SL 112.80, TP 125.80

#BRENT is trading around $115.30 per barrel, as the market factors in the risk of supply disruptions due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and logistical issues along key shipping routes. Any news of new restrictions or infrastructure damage quickly adds a “risk premium” to prices.

This week’s drivers include negotiation headlines and actions by both consumer and producer countries, including potential measures to stabilize supply. If tensions persist, oil may remain elevated; if signs of de-escalation emerge, sharp pullbacks are possible as speculative demand fades quickly.

Trading recommendation: BUY 115.30, SL 112.80, TP 125.80

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 31, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

17:00 EET. USD - Consumer Confidence Index

USDJPY:

On March 31, USD/JPY is hovering around 159.6–159.9: the dollar is supported by investors moving into safe-haven assets amid tensions around Iran and a sharp rise in oil prices. At the same time, the yen occasionally recovers part of its losses, as the market remains wary of potential action by Japanese authorities if the currency weakens further.

Higher energy import costs worsen Japan’s trade conditions and add to inflation pressure, making the topic of the Bank of Japan’s next steps especially sensitive. Any signals of readiness to tighten policy increase the chances of a stronger yen, even if no specific decisions have been made yet.

Given the risk of verbal warnings or direct intervention, as well as the likelihood of pullbacks after sharp moves, USD/JPY has a growing chance of declining on even a modest improvement in sentiment in commodity markets. This makes selling the pair the more preferred scenario.

Trade recommendation: SELL 159.70, SL 159.90, TP 158.80

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 1, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales Change

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.1560, while demand for the US dollar after its recent rally looks less steady: markets are partly pricing in a possible pause in the conflict around Iran, which reduces the need for defensive dollar buying and supports the euro. At the same time, volatility remains elevated, and reactions to headlines may be especially sharp.

On the euro’s side, there is a jump in euro area inflation due to higher energy prices and growing expectations that the European Central Bank could discuss a rate increase as early as the meeting in late April. Investors are also watching how quickly energy costs start to weigh on demand and industry.

In the US, focus shifts to late-week labor market data: weak numbers could revive talk of a rate cut, while strong data would strengthen the dollar again. As long as uncertainty around oil persists, EUR/USD remains highly sensitive to news, but today the balance of factors is moderately in favor of the euro.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1560, SL 1.1535, TP 1.1645

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 2, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Initial Jobless Claims

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3255 amid elevated market jitters due to the situation in the Middle East. The pair is holding on to part of its recent gains, but market participants are avoiding risk ahead of new U.S. statements regarding the prospects for a ceasefire, and during bouts of heightened anxiety the dollar quickly finds support.

The UK economy is sensitive to an energy shock: rising fuel and logistics costs add to inflationary pressure, while the Bank of England warns of risks to households through higher borrowing and mortgage costs. High rates and limited access to financing help restrain prices, but at the same time worsen growth expectations, leaving demand for the pound unstable.

In the U.S., attention is on the jobs report and the subsequent reassessment of inflation risks amid expensive oil. If the data confirm labor market resilience, expectations for rate cuts will be pushed further out, supporting the dollar. In the current news environment, this provides grounds to view a move lower as the base case for the coming days, especially if geopolitical tensions remain elevated.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3255, SL 1.3275, TP 1.3165

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Inflation shock and geopolitics are driving prices higher!

Global financial markets are ending the week in a state of heightened activity. Geopolitical tensions, a surge in energy prices, and a reassessment of interest rate expectations have intensified fluctuations across several market segments. Traders are closely watching #BRENT and #WTI crude oil, as well as gold (XAUUSD), stock indices, and major currency pairs.

The commodities market continues to show a wide range of price swings. After a strong rally in March, oil prices began to correct sharply: during trading, #BRENT fell below $100 per barrel, losing more than 2% in a single day. At the same time, March itself turned out to be exceptionally strong for the oil market: #BRENT gained 64% over the month, while #WTI rose by around 52%. Such moves traditionally increase volatility in currency pairs, stock indices, and energy sector shares.

At the same time, investors have increased their interest in safe-haven assets. Gold (XAUUSD) climbed to $4,728.75 per troy ounce, while metal futures reached $4,755.70. Gold prices have now been rising for a fourth consecutive trading session, highlighting strong demand for defensive instruments amid ongoing uncertainty.

Fresh macroeconomic data has also added to the volatility. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 in March, up from 50.8 a month earlier, while Germany’s PMI increased to 52.2 from 50.9. Formally, this signals an expansion in business activity; however, the growth was accompanied by a sharp rise in costs, more expensive logistics, and supply chain disruptions. These are precisely the conditions that often amplify moves in instruments such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, and #DAX30.

U.S. data is also adding to the intrigue. According to ADP, employment in the U.S. private sector increased by 62,000 jobs in March, keeping market participants focused on the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Any new signals regarding inflation, interest rates, or geopolitics could quickly shift market sentiment and intensify volatility across a broad range of assets.

In an environment of elevated volatility, it is essential for traders to react quickly to changes in market conditions and take advantage of the opportunities that arise during strong price movements. FreshForex analysts recommend paying special attention to instruments such as #BRENT, #WTI, XAUUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, #SP500, and #DAX30, viewing corrective pullbacks as potential entry opportunities.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 3, 2026 USDJPY

Events to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD – Change in Non-Farm Payrolls

15:30 EET. USD – Unemployment Rate

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is trading near 159.60 and remains near the upper end of its recent range, though the potential for further gains looks limited. Approaching a round-number level increases the attention of Japanese authorities to market moves and raises the risk of statements aimed at cooling the market, while expensive oil adds strain to an economy that depends on imported commodities.

The US dollar is supported by demand for safe-haven assets amid the Iran-related conflict and by expectations that US interest rates will stay high for longer. At the same time, arguments for a stronger yen are also building: import-driven inflation caused by energy prices increases the likelihood of a tighter policy stance from the Bank of Japan, and sharp exchange-rate moves may be viewed by authorities as speculative.

Today’s US labor market data could become a turning point: weak figures would reduce pressure on yields and make the dollar less attractive. Given the proximity to levels that traditionally trigger a reaction from Japanese officials, it is reasonable to factor in a downside correction in the pair in the near term.

Trading recommendation: SELL 159.60, SL 159.80, TP 158.40

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 6, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1520 on April 6. The pair is under pressure due to demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, as the market is focused on the renewed escalation around Iran and risks to supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil remains above 110 dollars per barrel, which increases inflation risks and reduces interest in the currencies of regions that depend on expensive energy imports.

Additional support for the dollar came from the March US labour market data. The number of new jobs increased by 178 thousand, unemployment fell to 4.3%, and the market reduced expectations of an early Federal Reserve rate cut. US Treasury yields remain elevated, while investors are waiting for the minutes of the March Fed meeting and fresh inflation data. As long as macroeconomic statistics do not point to a sharp slowdown in the US economy, the dollar is likely to retain its advantage.

The euro has some support of its own: inflation in the euro area accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9%, mainly because of higher energy prices. This has strengthened expectations of firmer steps from the European Central Bank. At the same time, growth prospects for the regional economy are deteriorating, while expensive energy is putting pressure on demand and business costs. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD still faces downside risks.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1520, SL 1.1550, TP 1.1430

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Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 10 April 2026

XAUUSD: SELL 4652.90, SL 4725.00, TP 4435.00

Gold enters the week near $4,653 per ounce. Pressure on the metal increased after strong US labor market data: in March, the economy added new jobs, while the market began to price in a later rate cut. Octa materials also pointed to weaker demand for safe-haven assets and a shift in expectations for policy easing toward later months.

This week, the main limiting factors for XAUUSD remain a strong US dollar, elevated yields, and the risk that expensive oil may add inflationary pressure. At the same time, geopolitical tensions are limiting the depth of the decline, so the scenario looks like downward pressure with a chance of sharp but short-lived rebounds driven by foreign policy headlines.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4652.90, SL 4725.00, TP 4435.00

#SP500: SELL 6622, SL 6680, TP 6445

S&P 500 futures start the week near 6,622 points, but the backdrop has become noticeably less comfortable. Higher oil prices, a strong US labor market, and delayed expectations for a rate cut are making conditions for equities more restrained. Additional tension comes from the release of the Fed minutes, inflation data, and the start of the corporate earnings season.

In the medium term, major financial institutions still expect the index to rise by the end of the year, but on the horizon of the current week the picture is complicated by expensive oil, the risk of faster inflation, and investor caution ahead of company reports. Therefore, the base fundamental scenario for #SP500 in the coming days is moderate downward pressure with high sensitivity to the news flow.

Trading recommendation: SELL 6622, SL 6680, TP 6445

#BRENT: BUY 110.74, SL 106.90, TP 122.40

Brent starts the week near $110.74 per barrel. The main driver is the continuing risk of supply disruptions due to the military conflict around Iran and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the increase in output from OPEC+ does not yet look sufficient to quickly ease tensions in the market, while refiners are already searching for alternative crude supplies.

Over the course of the week, the balance for oil remains tilted toward growth: any deterioration in the negotiating environment quickly restores a supply risk premium to the market. Additional support comes from analysts revising their expectations for the average Brent price in 2026 after the March jump in quotations. As long as the issue of the strait and Middle Eastern infrastructure remains unresolved, upward pressure is likely to persist.

Trading recommendation: BUY 110.74, SL 106.90, TP 122.40

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 7, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3230 on Tuesday and remains under pressure after a series of weak sessions. The main driver is the strengthening US dollar amid rising geopolitical tension and higher oil prices. The situation is more difficult for the pound, as the UK is sensitive to rising imported energy costs, and a new wave of price pressure could hit consumer spending while keeping inflation elevated.

Additional pressure is coming from signals by the Bank of England. Andrew Bailey has indicated that the market may be pricing in rate hikes too quickly, as the regulator must take into account not only inflation, but also the risk of damage to the economy and employment. This reduces the chances of rapid policy tightening and limits support for the pound, especially when the dollar is backed by higher rate expectations in the US.

From a fundamental perspective, GBP/USD still has room to decline. The US currency is benefiting from demand for safe-haven assets, while the pound is facing expensive energy, the Bank of England’s cautious stance, and the risk of weaker domestic demand. Until external tensions ease, selling the pair from current levels looks more justified than buying.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3230, SL 1.3260, TP 1.3140

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 8, 2026 USDJPY

Events to watch today:

21:00 EET. USD - Publication of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is falling toward 158.40 as the yen is receiving support from several factors at once. The temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran weakened the dollar and eased part of the tension in the oil market, which reduced demand for the US currency. An additional factor came from warnings by Japanese officials that they are ready to respond to excessive exchange-rate fluctuations. The area near 160 yen per dollar remains a sensitive zone for the market.

Fundamentally, the yen also looks stronger because of expectations regarding the Bank of Japan. The regulator notes that all nine regions of the country continue to show a moderate economic recovery. Officials from the Bank of Japan and international institutions allow for further rate increases if inflation pressure remains in place. The weak yen and the recent jump in energy prices have increased import costs, so the issue of tighter policy has not disappeared from the agenda.

For today, the backdrop remains unfavorable for the pair. The dollar is losing part of its previous support after the decline in the geopolitical premium, while the yen is gaining an advantage due to expectations of further steps by the Bank of Japan and the risk of official intervention if a new wave of yen weakness appears. The base scenario for the current session remains a move lower in USD/JPY.

Trading recommendation: SELL 158.40, SL 158.70, TP 157.50

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Crypto crash: no coincidence behind it!

In the first quarter of 2026, BTCUSD, ETHUSD, SOLUSD, and BNBUSD posted sharp losses. Pressure on the crypto market intensified amid capital outflows from crypto funds, fading hopes for U.S. rate cuts, and rising anxiety across global financial markets. The sell-off was further fueled by regulatory uncertainty, internal failures within individual crypto projects, and a broader flight from risk among investors.


Key drivers behind the decline:

1. BTCUSD. Bitcoin came under the strongest pressure from persistent hawkish expectations regarding U.S. interest rates and outflows from major cryptocurrency investment products. In January, CoinShares repeatedly reported significant weekly outflows, while in early February Reuters highlighted a sharp price drop and widespread sell-offs.
2. ETHUSD. Ethereum experienced particularly heavy losses due to delays surrounding the U.S. CLARITY Act. The market interpreted this as a sign that the industry still lacks clear regulatory rules, and by the end of March ETH had become one of the main targets of negative sentiment and capital outflows.
3. SOLUSD. Solana suffered a major blow to investor confidence following the Drift hack — a project within the Solana ecosystem — where losses were estimated at over $280 million. This intensified concerns over security risks across the ecosystem.
4. BNBUSD. BNB remains under pressure due to ongoing regulatory issues surrounding Binance. In late March, an Australian court fined Binance Australia Derivatives, reminding the market once again that pressure on the Binance ecosystem has not disappeared.

Pressure on BTCUSD, ETHUSD, SOLUSD, and BNBUSD may persist, as hopes for a rapid easing of the Federal Reserve’s policy have weakened, while global markets remain nervous due to tensions surrounding Iran, elevated oil prices, and a strong U.S. dollar. When investors shift toward a more risk-off stance, cryptocurrencies are usually among the first assets to come under pressure. In such conditions, it may be worth considering short-selling opportunities and using market weakness as a potential entry point.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 9, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Initial Jobless Claims

EURUSD:

The EURUSD pair is holding near 1.1660 and is getting support after demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset weakened. The trigger was the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, although uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remains. The market is partially moving away from the dollar, and this is helping the euro stay close to local highs.

The European backdrop is also important for the single currency. Inflation in the eurozone rose above the European Central Bank’s target in March amid higher energy prices, while officials have indicated that policy tightening may be possible if supply disruptions last longer. This supports expectations of higher rates in the eurozone and strengthens the euro’s position.

The US picture is mixed. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting showed concern about inflation risks, but at the same time worries increased that high energy prices could weaken consumption and employment. With this balance, it is difficult for the dollar to regain firm upward momentum quickly, so buying remains the preferred option for EURUSD today.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1665, SL 1.1635, TP 1.1755

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 10, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is trading near 1.3420 on Friday, holding on to most of its recent gains. Sterling is benefiting from the broad weakening of the US dollar after the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, although the market still has doubts about the durability of the agreement. Easing tensions reduces pressure on energy prices and supports demand for higher-yielding assets.

The domestic backdrop for sterling remains mixed, but not weak. In March, the Bank of England unanimously kept the rate at 3.75% and signaled that it stands ready to respond to inflation risks. A Reuters poll of economists suggests that the baseline scenario now points to rates remaining unchanged until the end of the year, which continues to support the appeal of UK assets.

At the same time, the UK economy is facing rising costs: the March services PMI fell to 50.5, and companies reported the sharpest increase in expenses since 2021. However, for now this backdrop is more likely to delay expectations of a rate cut than to create pressure on sterling. If today’s US inflation data fail to boost the dollar, the pair may continue its recovery.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3420, SL 1.3390, TP 1.3510

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 13, 2026 USDJPY

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is falling toward 158.40 as the yen is receiving support from several factors at once. The temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran weakened the dollar and eased part of the tension in the oil market, which reduced demand for the US currency. An additional factor came from warnings by Japanese officials that they are ready to respond to excessive exchange-rate fluctuations. The area near 160 yen per dollar remains a sensitive zone for the market.

Fundamentally, the yen also looks stronger because of expectations regarding the Bank of Japan. The regulator notes that all nine regions of the country continue to show a moderate economic recovery. Officials from the Bank of Japan and international institutions allow for further rate increases if inflation pressure remains in place. The weak yen and the recent jump in energy prices have increased import costs, so the issue of tighter policy has not disappeared from the agenda.

For today, the backdrop remains unfavorable for the pair. The dollar is losing part of its previous support after the decline in the geopolitical premium, while the yen is gaining an advantage due to expectations of further steps by the Bank of Japan and the risk of official intervention if a new wave of yen weakness appears. The base scenario for the current session remains a move lower in USD/JPY.

Trading recommendation: BUY 159.75, SL 159.45, TP 160.65

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Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 17 April 2026

#XAUUSD: SELL 4716.70, SL 4748.00, TP 4621.00

Gold starts the week near $4,716 per ounce after declining amid a stronger US dollar and worsening expectations for a Fed rate cut. The sharp rise in oil above $100 has intensified concerns about a new wave of inflation, which reduces the chances of rapid monetary easing in the US and increases pressure on XAUUSD.

The metal is still supported by tensions in the Middle East and steady demand from central banks, including China. However, the key drivers for the coming days remain the dollar, inflation signals, and comments from Fed officials, so for this week a scenario of moderate downside with elevated volatility appears more likely for gold.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4716.70, SL 4748.00, TP 4621.00

#SP500: SELL 6805, SL 6870, TP 6610

The S&P 500 index finished Friday at 6,816.89 points, but futures slipped to 6,805 at the start of the new week. The main reason is another jump in oil prices and rising tensions around Iran. Higher energy prices are once again increasing inflation risks and making the market more cautious about the prospects for US rate cuts.


This week, the focus shifts to earnings reports from major banks and technology companies. Profit expectations remain generally strong, but any deterioration in guidance on demand, costs, and margins could quickly bring sellers back into the market. For now, the external backdrop remains restrictive, which means short-term pressure on #SP500 looks more likely.

Trading recommendation: SELL 6805, SL 6870, TP 6610

#BRENT: BUY 102.23, SL 99.00, TP 111.92

Brent crude starts the week near $102.23 per barrel after a sharp rally caused by the collapse of US-Iran talks and the announcement of a blockade on Iranian ports. The market is once again pricing in the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a significant share of global oil trade, so buying interest remains strong at the start of the week.

Additional support comes from expectations of tighter supply and a possible shift in the market balance toward deficit. OPEC’s monthly report is due today, while the IEA will publish its oil market report on Tuesday, so supply expectations will remain the central theme for the market. For the current week, the fundamental backdrop for Brent remains supportive of further gains.

Trading recommendation: BUY 102.23, SL 99.00, TP 111.92

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 14, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Producer Price Index

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1760 on the morning of April 14 and is receiving support from a weaker US dollar. Investors are assessing the possibility of renewed talks between the United States and Iran, while the pullback in oil from recent highs has reduced demand for the US currency as a safe-haven asset. Against this backdrop, the dollar index remains near its lowest levels since early March, and part of the capital flow is returning to the euro.

Additional support for the single currency comes from revised expectations regarding the European Central Bank’s policy. After stronger energy-related risks, the market is pricing in a longer period of elevated borrowing costs in the euro area, and some participants even allow for a rate increase later this year. Representatives of the regulator indicate that they will closely monitor whether higher energy prices spread into broader growth in the prices of goods and services.

In the United States, the tone remains cautious: the regulator is being advised not to rush any rate decision, yet March’s jump in consumer prices due to expensive oil complicates the policy outlook. This is holding back the dollar and supporting demand for the euro. As long as investors see the European currency reacting more steadily to the external backdrop, the base case for today suggests further strengthening of the pair.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1765, SL 1.1735, TP 1.1855

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 15, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

21:00 EET. GBP - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech

GBPUSD:

The pound is holding near 1.3570, reacting to swings in the US dollar and news from the Middle East: expectations of talks and possible de-escalation reduce demand for safe-haven assets, but any deterioration quickly brings nervousness back to the market. Another transmission channel remains oil and gas prices, which are important for the UK economy.

Domestically, attention is shifting to the Bank of England’s messaging and decisions. The market is increasingly discussing that higher energy costs could keep inflation above target longer than expected, but the regulator also has to take into account cooling business activity. Against this backdrop, any mismatch between market expectations and signals from the Bank of England increases volatility in the pair.

From the external side, pressure on the pound comes from worsening global forecasts and the risk of weaker growth in Europe. The IMF is already revising its estimates, pointing to the consequences of the energy shock, which makes GBP/USD dynamics dependent on a combination of “energy” news and US price data. If the Fed continues to maintain a high-rate stance, the dollar’s strengthening potential could push the pair back toward lower levels. The risk is a sharp drop in oil and an improvement in risk appetite.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3575, SL 1.3595, TP 1.3475

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Oil surges: the market had every reason to be worried!

Over the past few days, #BRENT and #WTI have risen sharply. The trigger was a tough assessment from the International Energy Agency: the IEA believes that the conflict around Iran has already reshaped the global oil balance. The agency now expects global oil demand in 2026 to decline by 80 thousand barrels per day, while supply is set to fall by 1.5 million bpd. The market is reacting not only to the fact of the deficit itself, but also to the risk that expensive oil will start to weigh on consumption, accelerate inflation, and increase nervousness across the world.

Growth factors:

BRENT. North Sea crude is holding near the $100 per barrel area after a strong jump at the beginning of the week. At the opening of trading on April 13, Brent rose by 9% and traded near $99.80. This shows that the market is already pricing in not a short-term spike in fear, but a prolonged supply risk.

WTI. US crude also strengthened sharply: on April 13, WTI climbed to $98.08. For traders, this is an important signal because the rise is taking place not only in the physical Middle East market, but across the key global benchmarks at once.

Hormuz Strait. The main pressure factor is the disruption of supplies through Hormuz. The IEA emphasizes that the restoration of normal flows through the strait remains the key condition for easing price pressure. In early April, only around 3.8 million bpd passed through it, compared with more than 20 million bpd in February, before the escalation of the crisis.

Expensive physical oil. Additional concern comes from the gap between futures and the real market. The IEA and Reuters note that physical oil prices were rising toward $150 per barrel. This means that the shortage is already being felt not only in expectations, but also in actual supplies.

Supply deficit. According to the IEA, global oil supply collapsed by 10.1 million bpd in March, which the agency called the largest supply disruption in history. Against this backdrop, the market is increasingly concerned that the shortage of raw materials will last longer than investors had expected just a month ago.

The rise in #BRENT and #WTI may continue because the market is still not confident in a quick restoration of supplies through Hormuz, while the IEA also allows for a more severe scenario in which the world will have to draw more actively on oil inventories, and demand will decline even more sharply. FreshForex analysts note that oil may remain one of the most volatile and attractive trading instruments throughout 2026. Use strong market moves, follow the news, and choose the most favorable entry points.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 16, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Initial Jobless

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is trading near 158.7–158.8, but the current balance of fundamental factors is gradually shifting in favor of the yen. Pressure on the Japanese currency in recent months was driven by a strong dollar and weak market confidence in decisive action from the Bank of Japan. Now the situation is changing. After talks between Japanese and US financial authorities, attention has once again focused on the exchange rate issue, and the very fact of closer coordination between the two sides increases market sensitivity to any further weakening of the yen.

No less important is the fact that market participants are increasingly expecting a Bank of Japan rate hike by the end of June, while some analysts even allow for such a move earlier. The reason is simple: a weak yen intensifies imported inflation, and rising energy prices make this problem even more visible for the Japanese economy. For the regulator, this is an argument in favor of a firmer stance, even if external uncertainty still prevents rapid action. The mere presence of such expectations is already limiting the upside potential of USD/JPY.

On the US side, the dollar is losing part of its previous support. Easing tensions around the Middle East has reduced demand for safe-haven assets, and any signs of stabilization in the external environment weaken interest in buying the dollar against the yen. As a result, the pair remains elevated, but its further rise looks increasingly unconvincing: Japan is gaining arguments for more decisive action, while the dollar is losing part of its external premium. Against this background, the base scenario remains a decline in USD/JPY from current levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 158.75, SL 159.05, TP 157.85

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