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Honestly, Apart from a four years halving pattern that might technically make a four years investment reasonable to some extent, I believe good and profitable investment should last up to the range of eight years and above
Don't get me wrong, I am not even recommending that guys have such short investment time horizons as 4-10 years, and that is why I phrase my suggestion that getting into bitcoin should have a 4-10 year or longer time horizon, and the fact of the matter is that I consider 4 years to be minimum in terms of people who might have reasons that they might not be able to commit for longer, such as if they are elderly or have health conditions or they expect that they could start to have cashflow issues in and around that kind of a timeline.
I am just trying to be flexible in the way that I phrase these kinds of matters, yet guys who are brand new to investing, and if they are ONLY able to save/invest 10% of their income (and they have no other assets that they can move over into bitcoin), then they are likely going to have to plan to invest way longer than 10 years, and maybe 20-40 years - even though it is really hard to plan that far out, yet if someone is ONLY investing 10% of his income per year, then it is going to take 10 years for him to have had invested a whole year's of income into bitcoin, and sure it is possible that bitcoin way outperforms all other assets to increase the value of his investment, but he still has a problem of perhaps putting such small value into bitcoin in the early years that he is not really as advantaged by the BTC price going up, unless he can get more value in earlier and then he would be able to profit if BTC went shooting way up.
At the same time, I am not advocating overallocating to such a level (or front loading to such a level) that the person devolves into gambling, so the fact to the matter is that the guy is best off to invest as aggressively as he can without overdoing it and without engaging in leverage and figure out strategies to be aggressive, and so then let the investment work for him and the passage of time, and if he invests in reasonable ways, he might get lucky in such ways as to be able to cut back the reaching of a normal retirement (or fuck you status) in 30-40 years and to cut that down in half into something like 15-20 years.
Of course, a guy that comes to bitcoin with more resources, may well not have to wait so long as to get his bitcoin stash to work for him because he is able to lump sum, front load and reallocate from other assets, currencies and/or investments that he might have.... but guys still have to work with the cards that they have, and if they are real young, they are not necessarily disadvantaged, because a 50 year old guy might prefer to be somewhat broke and in his early 20s rather than being 50 years old - especially in terms of knowing about bitcoin as an investment and being able to see who bitcoin plays out in society, not only on a personal well being level but society wide over a lifetime.
and this is never to suggest that those that are working with a four to eight years plan based on thier budget and financial capabilities can't be in good profit but you know, making long term investment isn't all about taking out little profit whenever you're on the positive side, you've got to be disciplined and futuristic enough to accumulate more within a long period of time which will increase the quantity of your starch at the end of your accumulation and go on to meeting your set out plan.
Yep.. not only the power of compounding, but the power of conviction and the power of continuing to put value into the investment, which likely triggers an additional 4-10 year investment timeline for any new cash that is injected into the investment... yet at some point there will start to be enough value in the stash that there will either be some satisfaction that there is enough bitcoin in there or that some other strategies, beyond just BTC accumulation becomes part of the goal... and there can be some irony that the number of bitcoin that is needed in the future is likely going to continue to be a lot less than the number of bitcoin that is needed to day to reach a similar level of prosperity and the creation of options.
Before even taking out your investment when you're in profit, it's also good to have a plan on ground regarding what your profit is going into or else you risk wasting your profit into something that's unprofitable and this is one obvious reason why you would need to set out a defined accumulation strategy which will be either the DCA strategy, the lump sum or a combination of the both and also make plan on what you're using your profit for at the end of your investment circle.
Well, there are likely stages to a lot of this, and there may well be stages after a guy starts to have enough BTC that he either shaves off some of his BTC to be able to diversify his wealth and/or his holdings, and there also might be stages in which a guy is able to greatly start to increase his consumption and/or to raise his standard of living.
No one can really say how to balance these trade offs between investing into bitcoin, investing in other things, and/or consumption. .and surely there can be kinds of consumptions that relate to basic needs and then there can be kinds of consumption that are more extravagant and showy. And maybe some of the items cross over, such as the buying of more quality goods and services that may cost a lot more, but improve living comforts and even health... to buy better quality foods and maybe buy periods of relaxation, without necessarily having to worry about costs. Sometimes it can also improve living standards to higher someone to help you with certain tasks, and that may help the other person out too, in order that the person can get paid.
Yeah, sometimes we might be confusing the definitions, and it seems that bitcoin has a bit of a pattern that justifies the consideration of the 4-year cycle, even if the cycle may well end up getting broken at some point... however, if we already have a pattern of a 4 -year cycle, then, it is likely helpful to at least attempt to recognize that such pattern has so far tended to play around the timeline of the halvening.
The bitcoin pattern will be changed based on the halves most of the time,many people holding from pump after the Corona time for the new halves at the 2024.With no surprise we get the new all time high of 73k in the bitcoin price which is more then the value of 68k which was the highest of all the time.
Having an ATH prior to the halvening is not a break in the 4-year cycle.
Yeah there is a lot of demand right now on bitcoin due to the new buy channels that are opened up through the ETFs, so that might contribute towards the price going higher than expected in a short period of time, yet at the same time, there can be all kinds of explanations for why the BTC price is going higher now, including theories that the earlier cycle was cut short due to a lot of the corruption in the space and also the China government's apparent battle with kicking miners out of their country.
This bull run was not end and still we have a hope in the bitcoin price for the consecutive pump in the 2024.So holding was the key to the good profit in the crypto currency trading.
Fuck crypto. We are talking about bitcoin here.
Otherwise if you meant to say bitcoin but you slipped, then you need to start to think about these matters more clearly and say what you mean, because crypto does not mean anything hardly, unless you clarify what you are talking about in relation to bitcoin.
Otherwise, in regards to your other points about various consecutive pumps and ongoing reasons for bitcoin to pump in 2024, yes they seem to exist for a variety of reasons... and at least 1) pressures from the ETF sales and extra buying that will come through those channels, 2) the halvening, 3) ongoing debasement of the dollar and other fiat currencies and 4) perhaps some other reasons that might not be so clearly outlined in advance.. but just related to ongoing strengthening of the various bitcoin network effects (referring to
the 7 outlined by Trace Mayer)
So yeah we do not necessarily need to plan out 10 years or more in order to be considered long term, but if we really consider what people might want to do with their investment into bitcoin, then we likely can see that they are wanting to make their lives better in the future.... so yeah.. I suppose that there could be such things as long term, medium term and short term trades, and so any one getting involved in bitcoin for less than 4 years could be trading within various periods of time, yet it would be difficult to classify them as an investor in bitcoin if they have a timeline that is shorter than 4 years.
This was the good one,So the trader should not worry about the minor fall,many had brought in the 68k pump.After that we had faced huge fall in the bitcoin market.Many a while the price doesn’t cross above the value of 32-34k.But many had the gift of the value with the double digits profit of the holding on the correction time.Still many trader claiming the bitcoin will reach the value of 100k as the next target in the 2024.It was essential for the trader to make some profit by just holding on the bull market of the cryptocurrency market.Don’t sell your assets at the panic of losing the high prices,the bull run not end yet.
If someone is investing for the longer term, then he is likely going to be investing at least a couple of cycles, unless he is able to lump sum in, and then he might have a different agenda.
But even a guy who might have lump sum invested (or front-loaded) his investment somewhere towards the top of the 2021 cycle, he still would have had been able to do fine as long as he held on to his original investment, and just continued to buy throughout the whole period, and we can look at various scenarios to point out how such a persistent and consistent guy would have had performed at this time, and perhaps the ones who might have had the worst time would be the ones who sold on the way down and might not have figured out when or if to get back in or if they just sat on their hands the whole time and they are just eager to sell right now or at a profit, and so it is difficult to have sympathy for those kinds of guys who bought high and lacked enough conviction to continue to buy during the 2022 and 2023 periods in which the BTC price was way below a lot of the 2021 prices.
Those kinds of guys (and whiners) exist, yet personally, I have little sympathy for them, and I have no reason to suggest that they were doing anything prudent in the way that they played their bitcoin investment without having enough conviction to keep buying through 2022 and 2023..
Regarding time horizon, everyone is going to have his own investment time horizon that might already have to do with how much of an investment that he had already built up prior to coming into bitcoin. But anyone who is brand new to bitcoin and/or brand new to investing, should be able to come to bitcoin thinking about investing 4-10 years or more, and frequently it will take them 10 years or more just to get their financial and psychological shit together . .as well as building up their investment nestegg.. especially if they are new to investing.. so if they are new to investing they might have no (reasonable) abilities to front-load their investment (and so they are ONLY stuck with DCA and various more modest tactics of building their BTC investment and also building other solid elements around their own personal finances),
especially if they might ONLY be investing $100 per week or even $10 per week for some guys who might be getting started from poorer areas of the world. so it could take a while to build an investment portfolio at that rate. So the guy investing $10 per week would only have invested $520 after a year and $5,200 after 10 years, yet the guy investing $100 per week would have 10x that amount, and a lot of these numbers end up relating back to their own financial needs in terms of how much they need to build up in order to perhaps later be able to either live off of their BTC or to be able to otherwise profit from their BTC investment to have it supplement their needs at some later time down the road.
I didnt get that withdrawal rate point. Can you just elaborate it a bit for my understanding. Will be grateful.
BTC could fairly conservatively facilitate 6-10% per year or perhaps even more, as long as you are valuing your stash based on the bottom price (or the 200-WMA) rather than attempting to value your BTC based on top (or spot) prices that tend to be all over the place... even though when you sell, you will of course be selling based on then BTC spot prices.
Correct me if I am wrong. For this to be true, it is mandatory that you have carefully gathered your Bitcoin in DCA manner or in a way that your average price is low compared to spot value (0r 200 WMA) i.e. the value at which you want to sell.
Your way of framing the matter sounds strange to me because part of the idea of entering into a phase of sustainable withdraw is that you are measuring your overall BTC portfolio size and you are assessing the dollar value of it in terms of the 200-WMA so that you can figure out if you have enough to be able to start a withdrawal practice that mostly involves holding your BTC but shaving off small amounts periodically, whether you shave off monthly, quarterly, twice a year, annually or every couple of years.. or some other increment that makes sense.
you value it based on the 200-WMA (which is the bottom price), yet of course, you are making any sales at spot price and maybe even selling way above the 200-WMA. Your costs per BTC would not really be very relevant, even though presumptively, you are selling in profits, but if you have enough BTC and you have a certain formula for selling, as I describe in
my sustainable withdrawal thread, then you might not give any shits about whether you are in profits or not or how much you are in profits, but you already meet the criteria for being able to shave off in accordance with the parameters of how much you have an dhow much you expect it to continue to grow so that any amount that you are shaving off is likely going to not significantly impact the overall value of the investment.
We are getting too much off topic in going down this line anyhow.. because this thread is about accumulation rather than about selling... and I am more than open to discuss these ideas in
my sustainable withdrawal thread, yet you might have to think it through a bit anyhow, because you have to get to a state of sufficiently accumulating in your quantity of BTC before it even starts to make sense to begin to employ various withdrawal and/or raking strategies.
From
my fuck you status chart, you can see that the BTC's 200-WMA (or the bottom) has gone up by more than 20% per year, and there is no reason to believe that it won't continue to go up more than 20% per year, especially if averaged out, and also you can see with my fuck you status chart that the worst period for the 200-WMA rate of increase was between mid 2022 until late 2023 (which was 20% annually for that period). So in theory, if you are measuring your BTC's value from the bottom price, then you could expect to withdraw based on that even up to 20% and it would still continue to sustain itself in terms of dollar values.. .and to be safe, you could withdraw at a lower rate such as 6% to 10% and still have a cushion, and since the 200-WMA is a lagging indicator, you can watch it to see if it is starting to get to lower values, otherwise you should be able to sustainably withdraw at way higher rates than you would have had been able to do under traditional investments. You can see more of my sustainable withdraw discussions in
my sustainable withdrawal thread, and some of the linked tools and threads.
You are right that from mid 2022 to late 2023 200-WMA is above Bitcoin price. Apart from that period, most of the time 200 WMA is below Bitcoin price.
You just described the direct opposite of what I said and what the BTC price shows. The BTC spot price is almost never below the 200-WMA, except between mid-2022 and about October 2023, it spent quite a bit of time below the 200-WMA.. which largely shows that it was a bargain to be buying BTC during that period.
So we can safely assume that if we are taking 200-WMA is reference then most time its below Bitcoin price. With 200-WMA one can easily figure out how much room he has for withdrawal.
If the BTC spot price starts getting close to the 200-WMA, then that will likely mean that the 200-WMA is not going to go up as fast and those might be periods to sell fewer BTC (if we are talking about sustainable withdrawal) and maybe even times to buy more BTC if we are in our BTC accumulation stages, and yeah it has tended to take a whole cycle before the BTC price gets back down to the 200-WMA.. and so right now we are more than 2x higher than the 200-WMA, but in 2021 we were 5-6x higher in early 2021 and around 3x higher in late 2021, and in late 2017 the BTC price had gotten around 14x higher than the 200-WMA. You can see the numbers through
the sustainable withdrawal tool and putting in various dates.
Of course, with
my sustainable withdrawal tool (powered by bitmover), you can back test a variety of theories and timelines to see for yourself that you could have had engaged in pretty high withdrawal rates (even maximizing out the tool at 30%), and BTC still has held its dollar value.. especially over longer periods of time. I recently discussed an example that goes back to June 1, 2019 in
this post. this is a great tool developed by bitmover. Just enter your Bitcoin stash size and you will get to know the authorized BTC withdrawal. I will play more with this tool more to get more info about its working.
Yeah.. play around with it. There is a part that looks at the present, and you can also back test results with the simulator... so you want to attempt to get value out of the tool, then make sure you work the date of the simulator or even back test your stash size (or hypothetical stash size) in accordance with a dollar value that is based on the 200-WMA and not just looking at the BTC spot price.
Many Bitcoin investors struggle to understand the difference between short-term and long-term since it is not as obvious as it appears. In traditional investing, long-term is frequently defined as a few years, but in the world of cryptocurrency, this is not the case. One approach to figure out the differences is to consider the objectives of each form of investment. Short-term investing is typically about making immediate profits, but long-term investing is primarily about building wealth over time. As a result, each technique requires a distinct attitude.
There is no long term investing in cryptocurrencies. Fuck shitcoins. No one should even try to invest in them in the long term.
Now if you meant to say bitcoin instead of using the term cryptocurrency, then why didn't you just say it? Are you trying to sound smart by using a meaningless, vague and misleading term. Hopefully none of us are investing in cryptocurrencies in the long term. That would be retarded.
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I think bitcoin will go to 80k before the healing. What is your opinion on this?
It is difficult to predict the short term, but of course, right now there are a lot of ongoing upwards pressures on the BTC price, due to a lot of the demand that is coming from the BTC spot ETFs and perhaps others who are also buying in relation to the data that is showing a lot of ongoing BTC buying happening through the BTC spot ETFs.
There seem to be decently good chances that BTC prices will reach $80k and even $100k prior to the halvening, yet at the same time, none of us know, and if we are not trading and if we are still accumulating BTC, then we might prefer that the BTC price does not go up as fast, so that we can buy more BTC... So yeah, guys have to choose how much BTC to buy and to continue to buy and the dilemma is not necessarily going to get any better because there might still continue to be logic to continue to buy, and some uncertainties regarding whether dips will continue to happen or to come down to the level of current prices at a later date.
Why are you asking such question? Are you planning to sell in the short term? Have you already been accumulating BTC? You are pretty new to the forum (only here since late September 2023), so are you newly accumulating BTC or have you been buying BTC for a while prior to your forum registration? Of course, many of us in this thread suggest that guys who do not have any BTC should start buying to at least have some to prepare for up, so hopefully you have some BTC rather than just watching the price continuing to go up.
I lost a friend in the cold hands of death because he failed to take care of health. His mind is always investing in bitcoin with the little money he regularly gets from his workplace, making him forget that his body system needs to rest and to be taken care of.
That is a good point. We have to make sure that we invest into bitcoin with our time, energy and value in an amount that still allows us to experience our regular life, too, and yeah, to take care of our body and our mind as part of our routine (or our daily practices that have a decent diet, a sufficient amount of sleep and some exercise and/or other activities).
