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Author Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL!  (Read 77622 times)
Ruttoshi
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October 18, 2023, 04:45:01 PM
 #3501


The strategy that I am describing is pretty damned close to DCA, especially since I was doing it on a weekly basis.  Let's say, for example, I had a budget to buy bitcoin of $100 per week, and it was for 26 weeks (which would be $2,600 for 6 months).  And if the beginning of the week is Monday and the end of the week is Sunday, maybe I might identify a couple of the dips through the week or maybe I would be waiting for dips that did not end up happening, so by the end of the week (Sunday) I would use either the whole $100 or whatever parts were left to buy at that time.. of course, the beginning of the week could be chosen as any day.  and each week there was a new $100 authorized, and let's say that  I felt that I did not have time to watch the market, so maybe I would just buy or maybe the price opens at $28,500, and I would set my buy order at $27,820, and if the order did not fill by Saturday, then I would just market buy or maybe set the buy order within $50 of the current price so that I have more confidence that it is going to fill before the end of the week.

Ohh, now I see your point, the strategy you employed is actually DCA, the only difference is the fact that you wait for the dip before accumulating more, its not a bad one but its time consuming as it requires constant watching of the market, so assuming your targeted price is not meet for the week, do you add the amount to that of next week or you'll abandon that weeks accumulation?.
Reason I asked that question I believe there are times where the market just goes sideways without adding or removing any large significant amount to the market for up to  a week, and in such cases I don't think your strategy would be able to accumulate for that week. I am a very busy person, not sure if I would be able to adopt the system, but I'll love to make a trial for a month and see how it goes, but my modified strategy would be, if my buy target wasn't meet for the week, at the end of that week I'll just buy irrespective of the price, so I will not be tempted to skip accumulation for that week.
You might be right, but seriously, I don't think that waiting for the dip is a good idea. Why? Because it might be that while you are waiting for Bitcoin to dip, it must have been on peak mode, so it is good that when you have the money you should not hesitate to tap the buy button. If an investor is using the DCA method to accumulate Bitcoin, he/she shouldn't wait for the dip, it is just for the person to take advantage of every little opportunity that Bitcoin has provided. That's all.

Sometimes, I do believe that it is only Bitcoin traders that have the time and the whole day to keep on watching the price chart of Bitcoin so that they will know when to buy and when to sell, but for investment, I don't think it's a good idea for an investor to be watching at the price of Bitcoin without buying just because he/she is waiting for the dip.

With the help of the DCA method, I believe that 1btc is still 1btc, so if you are waiting for the dip to dip or get dipper, I think you are wasting time. It is just a waste of time. Buying when you have the money is a good one than waiting for the dip.
You are not getting what JJG said, let me explain to you from what I understand about the strategy that JJG said is similar to DCA. You must not wait for the dip, by sitting down and relaxing. What is said is that since you have set an amount for weekly regular DCA which is $100. You will always buy every week with $100, but if it happens that you are expecting a dip during the week, you can relax and keep on observing the market to see if the dip will come.

Just like JJG said that, if you make an order to DCA $100 weekly, and bitcoin price is at $28500, you can wait till the last day of the week before buying. So that if bitcoin price did not dip below $28500 on the last day, you can simple use all your $100 to buy for that week and expect the dip the next week. OR because you feel that the dip will come but still not around,you can limit the $100 DCA to $50 and buy bitcoin on the last day of the week so that you can carry over the balance of $50 to the next week, when the dip might come so that you can now add the $50 left to the new week DCA budget to make it $150.

This shows that if the dip comes during the next week, you will buy more bitcoin with $150 than when you would have bought with only $100. On the other hand, because you are using this pattern to accumulate, when the dip comes because you know that, your DCA weekly funds is $100, during the dip, you can take advantage of the market and use like $500 to buy at once. Note that the $500 that you used to buy is not for just five weeks budget, but you are buying with $100 from the week budget which you are on, let me say today for instance is my buying day and I have assigned $100 for this week. I will now take $50 each from 8 weeks ahead which becomes $400 +$100 for this week.

I am to DCA with $500 this week because bitcoin price is at dip, and when the price increases again, I can now continue to DCA with the remaining $50 left from the 8 weeks which I took from, for another 8 weeks. It is still like DCA because, you are buying every week but with different amount sometimes, due to planing for the dip and to take advantage of the dip.

JJG, I love this strategy but I have never taught of it, the only time that I thought of something like this, was when bitcoin price was 25k+, that I met my boss to me 20% of my salary for three months in advance to enable me buy at that price 25k+, which he did. I am now using half of the money that I am suppose to use for weekly DCA to accumulate now because, I need to keep on accumulating and I have used some part of my DCA funds to buy then when the price was 25k+. This strategy wouldn't be good for beginners who just started because it might be hard to practice, compare to the regular DCA pattern that a specific amount is used always disregard of bitcoin price.

You've done a great job explaining things further to rachael9385 for better clarity. However, there's something I don't quite agree with in your explanation. If my weekly budget for Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) is $100, and I anticipate a price dip during the week, it's acceptable to wait until the week's end to make my purchase. But if, as a result of the expected dip, I decide to invest $500 instead of my usual $100, which you calculated to take only $50 per week for 10 weeks. It seems like a way different strategy to me. What's the point of DCA or the suggested strategy JJG talked about when you're putting all your funds in at once? The concern is that the price might dip even more than anticipated over time, and even though you're still buying at a lower price, you'll end up with less Bitcoin. In hindsight, you might wish you hadn't gone all-in on the market.

This strategy is helpful when the price that you are buying at the dip, wouldn't go dipper, or you can continue buying even when it is dipper than expected and only use the $50 to DCA when the price pumps up again. I haven't thought of such moves and I don't think that I will love to practice is because most times, you will be vigilant with the market.

The steady DCA with a regular amount is what I am using to accumulate more bitcoin because I am a beginner and it has really been helpful especially when you have the passion to accumulate in a long term investment to increase your portfolio to a significant amount. Although JJG is talking from experience and the way he explained as long as your are hodli, your portfolio will definitely increase since it is a regular buying scheme.

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October 18, 2023, 07:53:10 PM
Merited by SeriouslyGiveaway (1)
 #3502

The strategy that I am describing is pretty damned close to DCA, especially since I was doing it on a weekly basis.  Let's say, for example, I had a budget to buy bitcoin of $100 per week, and it was for 26 weeks (which would be $2,600 for 6 months).  And if the beginning of the week is Monday and the end of the week is Sunday, maybe I might identify a couple of the dips through the week or maybe I would be waiting for dips that did not end up happening, so by the end of the week (Sunday) I would use either the whole $100 or whatever parts were left to buy at that time.. of course, the beginning of the week could be chosen as any day.  and each week there was a new $100 authorized, and let's say that  I felt that I did not have time to watch the market, so maybe I would just buy or maybe the price opens at $28,500, and I would set my buy order at $27,820, and if the order did not fill by Saturday, then I would just market buy or maybe set the buy order within $50 of the current price so that I have more confidence that it is going to fill before the end of the week.
Ohh, now I see your point, the strategy you employed is actually DCA, the only difference is the fact that you wait for the dip before accumulating more, its not a bad one but its time consuming as it requires constant watching of the market, so assuming your targeted price is not meet for the week, do you add the amount to that of next week or you'll abandon that weeks accumulation?.
Reason I asked that question I believe there are times where the market just goes sideways without adding or removing any large significant amount to the market for up to  a week, and in such cases I don't think your strategy would be able to accumulate for that week. I am a very busy person, not sure if I would be able to adopt the system, but I'll love to make a trial for a month and see how it goes, but my modified strategy would be, if my buy target wasn't meet for the week, at the end of that week I'll just buy irrespective of the price, so I will not be tempted to skip accumulation for that week.
I haven't actually tried such method before that requires me to actually watch or set a buy order for the week because I know how volatile the market can be and I think if the investor is not a principled one, you might end up using the actual funds for other stuff that's if the target isn't reach for that week, no offense but I think the DCA method of just having a specific target to reach regardless of how the market moves is more preferable especially if you are someone who is always occupied with other schedule just like you explained but also their is the fact about sacrifices, that's taking out time to watch the market or should say I say study it but I think this can be done through many simple ways too am currently using a price alert notification app on the Bitcoin price and this would be very helpful in terms of following up with this strategy.
I just outlined a way that you can DCA in a way that attempts to capture the dip for the week.  I don't see how that would be inferior in any way for someone who wants to attempt to do it. If you dont' have the time, then it is another story.. just set your DCA and forget it.

I personally am not much of a fan for automatic DCA because or the way that exchanges don't tend to allow specific customization of the times that you buy, but likely are batching the DCA buy times..... .. yet I can understand that people might not want to have to manually make their BTC buys, whether it is weekly or maybe on some other timeframe, and those are personal choices regarding how to spend time, which are going to likely vary quite a bit and may or may not end up resulting in better performance than some strict DCA approach that might end up getting gamed by exchanges if your buy time is being batched rather than being capable of individual tailoring regarding specifically when it takes place.

The strategy that I am describing is pretty damned close to DCA, especially since I was doing it on a weekly basis.  Let's say, for example, I had a budget to buy bitcoin of $100 per week, and it was for 26 weeks (which would be $2,600 for 6 months).  And if the beginning of the week is Monday and the end of the week is Sunday, maybe I might identify a couple of the dips through the week or maybe I would be waiting for dips that did not end up happening, so by the end of the week (Sunday) I would use either the whole $100 or whatever parts were left to buy at that time.. of course, the beginning of the week could be chosen as any day.  and each week there was a new $100 authorized, and let's say that  I felt that I did not have time to watch the market, so maybe I would just buy or maybe the price opens at $28,500, and I would set my buy order at $27,820, and if the order did not fill by Saturday, then I would just market buy or maybe set the buy order within $50 of the current price so that I have more confidence that it is going to fill before the end of the week.
- The method you're talking about is using small weekly savings to buy Bitcoin. But I'm wondering, what if you have a substantial amount you intend to invest in Crypto, let's say $100,000? How would you use DCA in that case?
- For me, my approach is to divide my capital into three parts. Every time Bitcoin corrects more than 20%, I put in one part of the capital. From the beginning of the year until now, I've only executed one of these parts. The other two parts are still waiting for the next correction cycles.

If you have a lump sum, you can still divide it into parts, and you could decide whether you are going to buy some of those on dips and/or to DCA and/or to just buy right away.

So the portion that you have set for DCA, then you might take 1/3 and just set it up over 6 months or a year or even over 1 or 2 months.

So if you have $33k, then maybe you set them up for $1k per week for 33 weeks or you could pick a different amount per time period .. you could do daily or you could do bi-weekly, monthly or quarterly... there are quite a few options that would just set up your buy amounts based on how quickly you want to inject your purchases whether you want your amount to get put in fairly rapidly or you want to spread it aout for a while.

Many times people are using DCA because either they do not have lump sums available or because maybe they want to pace their investment, such as a person might hold $40k in equities, $30k in property, $30k in bonds $10k in cash and cash equivalents and $30k in gold.  Maybe if the person wants to slim down his/her gold holdings, from $30k to $15k, s/he will decide to slim down by $1k per month over the next 15 months or surely some other time period and amount could be used, but it is a way to pick a timeline to ease out of an investment and also sometimes people might just decide to stop investing in one asset or another and just divert those funds to other assets, and that would be another way to accomplish similar kinds of reallocations, without using lump sums but instead DCAing... even though in that last example lump sums would optionally be available to the person but easing from one investment to another frequently feels better, and may well have fewer potentially negative tax ramifications, too.

But I'm wondering, what if you have a substantial amount you intend to invest in Crypto, let's say $100,000? How would you use DCA in that case?
- For me, my approach is to divide my capital into three parts. Every time Bitcoin corrects more than 20%, I put in one part of the capital. From the beginning of the year until now, I've only executed one of these parts. The other two parts are still waiting for the next correction cycles.
If I remember correctly, the price of Bitcoin was $20,250 as of January this year, and to have such a substantial amount of money, I would have just invested in all of it. The reason is that Bitcoin will not go back below $20k this year or even next year. In my opinion, Bitcoin has given people the opportunity to buy when the price was $20k at the beginning of the year and even was below $19k last year, which means no investor will see the $20k price again till probably the next bear market.

Having been in the Bitcoin space for some years now, I think there are some low prices I will see Bitcoin drop to, and I might not consider using the DCA at the moment. The reason is because if I buy at the low prices, let's say $15k–$20k, I know that definitely the price will spike again and go above that, which will guarantee me a huge profit. All I have to do is hold my asset tight, sit back, and wait for the bull market.

Of course, you are correct Dr.Bitcoin_Strange that there can be quite a few advantages towards lump sum investing, especially when it seem that price might have either dipped or might not go down any further.

There are no guarantees that they will end up going up, but it does seem that you are a bit more prudent when you buy on dips and you also consider that sometimes there are advantages to frontloading your BTC investment, even if there might be further dips, especially if you have longer term plans.. which also gets us to one of the reasons that it might not really matter that much if you buy at $30k or $28k or if you were able to get some at $25k or $20k, but in the end, we may or may not get any more opportunities to even buy sub $30k.. so there could be advantages to putting it all, even though when I get lump sums like that, I prefer to consider all three of the buying categories that involve buying right away, DCA and buying on dips, so it is a matter of personal perspective (and discretion) to the extent that the weighings in any of the categories might deviate from a 1/3 default or if more or less might go in one or more of the categories.

In other words, from time to time we will analyze our position and our assets and we might even start to determine that we can change our strategy because we have accumulated enough BTC... whether that happens in 1-2 years or maybe it takes 15 years to 20 years, this will vary from person to person regarding how long it might take for the person to start to consider that s/he has enough and s/he can transition from accumulation stage to maintenance stage. and sure maybe the transition will not be 100% clear because even if someone is in maintenance stage they still might accumulate BTC from time to time, but not be so concerned about accumulation because overall such person has determined that s/he has gotten enough bitcoin.
Am being inquisitive right now. So your saying that there might be a time when one feels he has accumulated enough bitcoin and would decide to only maintain the Bitcoin  he has accumulated.

Of course, you need to consider all of your personal circumstances in order to consider what you BTC accumulation targets might be... I have given several examples in the past, and so for example if your goal was to get to entry level fuck you status within 10 years, then you might need to get 5 bitcoin or more to start to feel that you are getting close to reaching your goal (as in my chart), but if you are at 8 bitcoin now, then you might feel that you have enough.. even though your timeline is 10 years.. and so you can project out what you believe to be your goals and how close you are to achieving them.. if you get to 8 BTC now, but you are still not sure whether your projection for 10 years is correct, you might still continue to accumulate BTC, but there still might be some point that you feel that you have enough or more than enough... but in order to feel more certain, you might need to see the price move enough to confirm your beliefs... or at least bring you to a point that you are convinced that you have enough.

I am aware of people saying that accumulating Bitcoin has been an obsession to them irrespective of the amount of Bitcoin they have they still accumulate as much of it as possible since they have the money to put it in.

People have differing goals, and some times they might not know what they want, or maybe they feel that they are a long way from their goal, so they just strive to reach it.. but sometimes people reach their earlier goals and they then end up setting higher goals.. Another thing is that sometimes people become uncertain or they set their goals based on bad evaluations and then if things end up not playing out how they expect because they valuated their value in wrong ways, then they might not have had reached their goal. 

Assuming someone is obsessed is it something that is wrong or it is good especially in this present time?

People sometimes fail to account for the depreciation of the dollar and/or they fail account for the volatility of bitcoin.. so there are ways to make more accurate assessments, and I personally have been using the 200 week moving average, which I think is more helpful than spot price and/or trying to put your value into dollar based assets.  We do frequently need to be able to assess a variety of matters to make sure that we have adequately accounted for fluctuating values that might include changes in the cost of living or volatile assets such as bitcoin and some other factors (such as expenses) that should be somewhat knowable and even in need of some cushions so that we do not believe that we are at entry level fuck you status before we actually are or we have bad ways of managing our investments and/or wealth once we get to a status in which we might no longer be accumulation and we might move into either a maintenance stage or into some form of liquidation stage.

If only I could Pm so you teach me your ways  Smiley

I prefer to talk about these kinds of topics in public threads rather than DM because it is just easier to share with many folks and then anyone can chime in on the topic if they disagree or if they have some of their own examples and/or ideas that they want to share.  Feel free to ask whatever you like or to bring some of your own examples, but several of the items that you mentioned can be seen in several of my already existing posts, so frequently it can be better to read through some of those posts and then maybe to attempt to direct your question more specifically or to bring some specific example that might relate to a dilemma that you might be having, which it seems that you already did that in your post..

[edited out]
This strategy is helpful when the price that you are buying at the dip, wouldn't go dipper, or you can continue buying even when it is dipper than expected and only use the $50 to DCA when the price pumps up again. I haven't thought of such moves and I don't think that I will love to practice is because most times, you will be vigilant with the market.

The steady DCA with a regular amount is what I am using to accumulate more bitcoin because I am a beginner and it has really been helpful especially when you have the passion to accumulate in a long term investment to increase your portfolio to a significant amount. Although JJG is talking from experience and the way he explained as long as your are hodli, your portfolio will definitely increase since it is a regular buying scheme.

Sure, if you keep buying BTC on a regular basis and then HODL if you run out of money, then the quantity of your BTC is going to continue to grow.  At the same, time you are not guaranteed that your BTC will go up in value, unless the BTC price goes up. .and that part is not guaranteed... but the part that your number of BTC will go up is guaranteed as long as you keep buying and holding. 

Accordingly, each of us does continue to have to make choices regarding how many BTC we want to holding and maybe how many we want to accumulate, whether it is actual amounts or we value in terms of dollars or we set aside a certain percentage of our monthly cashflow to buy BTC, 5%, 10% or some other amount.. maybe even up to 25%, and I don't necessarily recommend going above 25% for beginners unless you have thought through the matter and figured more than 25% to be acceptable for your own particulars.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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October 18, 2023, 10:27:55 PM
 #3503

Buying at once seems more favorable for those who have bulk capital and have already made up their mind to invest same in Bitcoin. They don't see any need keeping those funds or employing DCA since the fund is readily available. This is not a bad strategy provided the intentions are to hold for long to be able to realize profits.
Yeah you have a point, for those who have enough funds that cannot be affected if using a bigger amount to buy Bitcoin can actually buy a higher amount of Bitcoin at a time and however DCA method may not be use for these kind of investment because the investor may already have more than enough money that could buy a whole lot of Bitcoin and still  have many reserve funds waiting.

So irrespective of how important DCA strategy is, perhaps there are some kind of investment or accumulating patterns that may not require the need to DCA because sometimes due to the kind of funds we may have, we can decide to invest at once instead of buying bit by bit, so I believe that DCA strategy is based more on the people that has a low capital and that's managing to accumulate Bitcoin.

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October 18, 2023, 10:47:40 PM
 #3504

But I'm wondering, what if you have a substantial amount you intend to invest in Crypto, let's say $100,000? How would you use DCA in that case?
- For me, my approach is to divide my capital into three parts. Every time Bitcoin corrects more than 20%, I put in one part of the capital. From the beginning of the year until now, I've only executed one of these parts. The other two parts are still waiting for the next correction cycles.
If I remember correctly, the price of Bitcoin was $20,250 as of January this year, and to have such a substantial amount of money, I would have just invested in all of it. The reason is that Bitcoin will not go back below $20k this year or even next year. In my opinion, Bitcoin has given people the opportunity to buy when the price was $20k at the beginning of the year and even was below $19k last year, which means no investor will see the $20k price again till probably the next bear market.

Having been in the Bitcoin space for some years now, I think there are some low prices I will see Bitcoin drop to, and I might not consider using the DCA at the moment. The reason is because if I buy at the low prices, let's say $15k–$20k, I know that definitely the price will spike again and go above that, which will guarantee me a huge profit. All I have to do is hold my asset tight, sit back, and wait for the bull market.

Of course, you are correct Dr.Bitcoin_Strange that there can be quite a few advantages towards lump sum investing, especially when it seem that price might have either dipped or might not go down any further.

There are no guarantees that they will end up going up, but it does seem that you are a bit more prudent when you buy on dips and you also consider that sometimes there are advantages to frontloading your BTC investment, even if there might be further dips, especially if you have longer term plans.. which also gets us to one of the reasons that it might not really matter that much if you buy at $30k or $28k or if you were able to get some at $25k or $20k, but in the end, we may or may not get any more opportunities to even buy sub $30k.. so there could be advantages to putting it all, even though when I get lump sums like that, I prefer to consider all three of the buying categories that involve buying right away, DCA and buying on dips, so it is a matter of personal perspective (and discretion) to the extent that the weighings in any of the categories might deviate from a 1/3 default or if more or less might go in one or more of the categories.
I have checked and analyze what you said JJG. You have to consistently watch and time the market for the dip to come before you could lump sum. You speak only but a few advantages towards lump sum investing and neglect the disadvantages of it. While most people don't do lump sum is because of market timing. It's not certain to predict precisely when the price dip will occur at any given time, and you don't always have the fiat to hold and wait for the decline, as you're unaware of its timing.

Statistically speaking to avoid wrong timing of the market if I see a lump sum like that I wont buy immediately because of the dip, I will still do it the DCA way but this time huge amount because i see no harm in spreading it out over several weeks or month.

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October 19, 2023, 12:12:49 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #3505

But I'm wondering, what if you have a substantial amount you intend to invest in Crypto, let's say $100,000? How would you use DCA in that case?
- For me, my approach is to divide my capital into three parts. Every time Bitcoin corrects more than 20%, I put in one part of the capital. From the beginning of the year until now, I've only executed one of these parts. The other two parts are still waiting for the next correction cycles.
If I remember correctly, the price of Bitcoin was $20,250 as of January this year, and to have such a substantial amount of money, I would have just invested in all of it. The reason is that Bitcoin will not go back below $20k this year or even next year. In my opinion, Bitcoin has given people the opportunity to buy when the price was $20k at the beginning of the year and even was below $19k last year, which means no investor will see the $20k price again till probably the next bear market.

Having been in the Bitcoin space for some years now, I think there are some low prices I will see Bitcoin drop to, and I might not consider using the DCA at the moment. The reason is because if I buy at the low prices, let's say $15k–$20k, I know that definitely the price will spike again and go above that, which will guarantee me a huge profit. All I have to do is hold my asset tight, sit back, and wait for the bull market.

Of course, you are correct Dr.Bitcoin_Strange that there can be quite a few advantages towards lump sum investing, especially when it seem that price might have either dipped or might not go down any further.

There are no guarantees that they will end up going up, but it does seem that you are a bit more prudent when you buy on dips and you also consider that sometimes there are advantages to frontloading your BTC investment, even if there might be further dips, especially if you have longer term plans.. which also gets us to one of the reasons that it might not really matter that much if you buy at $30k or $28k or if you were able to get some at $25k or $20k, but in the end, we may or may not get any more opportunities to even buy sub $30k.. so there could be advantages to putting it all, even though when I get lump sums like that, I prefer to consider all three of the buying categories that involve buying right away, DCA and buying on dips, so it is a matter of personal perspective (and discretion) to the extent that the weighings in any of the categories might deviate from a 1/3 default or if more or less might go in one or more of the categories.
I have checked and analyze what you said JJG. You have to consistently watch and time the market for the dip to come before you could lump sum. You speak only but a few advantages towards lump sum investing and neglect the disadvantages of it. While most people don't do lump sum is because of market timing. It's not certain to predict precisely when the price dip will occur at any given time, and you don't always have the fiat to hold and wait for the decline, as you're unaware of its timing.

Statistically speaking to avoid wrong timing of the market if I see a lump sum like that I wont buy immediately because of the dip, I will still do it the DCA way but this time huge amount because i see no harm in spreading it out over several weeks or month.
I think you get it wrong concerning the point @Jay was trying to make, although I no that everything that has advantage may also have disadvantages but however Jay was given an instance that sometimes using lump sum is good because it gives you the advantage to buy everything at once with a favorable price, for example if the Bitcoin price is $27k or 25k you could buy with the lump sum because there is no much different but however waiting for the price to drop more before buying could sometimes happened that instead of dropping, it moves higher and affecting your lump sum.

Talking about disadvantage I don't think there is much disadvantage of what Jay was saying but however is not mandatory to buy everything at a time perhaps if the price was not suitable for you to buy at once and you are not sure of Bitcoin price movement, you can DCA to accumulate some certain amount while you wait for the right dip for you to lump sum, so I don't think there is any disadvantage on what he was saying.


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October 19, 2023, 12:44:07 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #3506

Of course, you are correct Dr.Bitcoin_Strange that there can be quite a few ad
I have checked and analyze what you said JJG. You have to consistently watch and time the market for the dip to come before you could lump sum. You speak only but a few advantages towards lump sum investing and neglect the disadvantages of it. While most people don't do lump sum is because of market timing. It's not certain to predict precisely when the price dip will occur at any given time, and you don't always have the fiat to hold and wait for the decline, as you're unaware of its timing.

Statistically speaking to avoid wrong timing of the market if I see a lump sum like that I wont buy immediately because of the dip, I will still do it the DCA way but this time huge amount because i see no harm in spreading it out over several weeks or month.
Timing of the market is necessary but not everyone who wants to invest is ready to time the market, the thing is even though you time the market to invest if the market wants to go against your wish it will definitely go against your expectations,  but what are saying to have in mind that two things is involve for investment and they are profit and loss, when you cross the market and observe what the next move for the market can be you can either decide to invest or not.

Do you know that nobody who knows bitcoin too well neglected the disadvantages of bitcoin, so what I wanted us to do for investment bitcoin is that let us not hoping always for the profit because when focus on profit and the market goes against us we will not be delighted, let us understand that bitcoin investment is investment of opportunity and when you profit its  base on your luck and when you profit it's base on your luck it's not do and die affairs were you believe that you definitely make profit..that is what some people arr saying invest and remove mind don't think you make it all with your Timing in bitcoin investment some Timing can fail

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October 19, 2023, 02:44:43 AM
 #3507

If you have a lump sum, you can still divide it into parts, and you could decide whether you are going to buy some of those on dips and/or to DCA and/or to just buy right away.

So the portion that you have set for DCA, then you might take 1/3 and just set it up over 6 months or a year or even over 1 or 2 months.

So if you have $33k, then maybe you set them up for $1k per week for 33 weeks or you could pick a different amount per time period .. you could do daily or you could do bi-weekly, monthly or quarterly... there are quite a few options that would just set up your buy amounts based on how quickly you want to inject your purchases whether you want your amount to get put in fairly rapidly or you want to spread it aout for a while.

Many times people are using DCA because either they do not have lump sums available or because maybe they want to pace their investment, such as a person might hold $40k in equities, $30k in property, $30k in bonds $10k in cash and cash equivalents and $30k in gold.  Maybe if the person wants to slim down his/her gold holdings, from $30k to $15k, s/he will decide to slim down by $1k per month over the next 15 months or surely some other time period and amount could be used, but it is a way to pick a timeline to ease out of an investment and also sometimes people might just decide to stop investing in one asset or another and just divert those funds to other assets, and that would be another way to accomplish similar kinds of reallocations, without using lump sums but instead DCAing... even though in that last example lump sums would optionally be available to the person but easing from one investment to another frequently feels better, and may well have fewer potentially negative tax ramifications, too.
Thanks for explaining this in detail. There are actually many ways to approach DCA, but the most crucial aspect is sticking to your plan with discipline. If you don't mind, could you share the method you're currently using in detail? And aside from Bitcoin, are there any Altcoins you're interested in for long-term investments?
If I remember correctly, the price of Bitcoin was $20,250 as of January this year, and to have such a substantial amount of money, I would have just invested in all of it. The reason is that Bitcoin will not go back below $20k this year or even next year. In my opinion, Bitcoin has given people the opportunity to buy when the price was $20k at the beginning of the year and even was below $19k last year, which means no investor will see the $20k price again till probably the next bear market.
Perhaps, as of January this year, $20,250 is already the year's low, according to your analysis. Currently, there are two conflicting predictions: one suggests that Bitcoin will rise from this point, while the other argues it will drop to test the $20,000 price and fill the CME gap. It's indeed challenging to predict which one will turn out to be accurate. However, I still intend to follow my plan and the analytics I've conducted.

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October 19, 2023, 06:55:24 AM
 #3508

- The method you're talking about is using small weekly savings to buy Bitcoin. But I'm wondering, what if you have a substantial amount you intend to invest in Crypto, let's say $100,000? How would you use DCA in that case?

Although this question is not directed at me, I am interested in answering this question, especially since I also do the DCA strategy that I do every week.
Before getting into the first question, I will say that in this strategy we need consistency and I think that also includes the amount of money we allocate each week, although I prefer to be more flexible, I mean when we have more money why don't we allocate the extra money? (provided that the money is really money that is not intended for other things.

If I have the money you mentioned, let's say $100k. That money is enough to buy approximately 3.5 bitcoins if converted at the current price. I have plans to buy at 3, 4 or 5 purchases, and it is situational. I will buy now with the amount of 1 bitcoin, I have a plan like this because I still see bitcoin still has the potential to go back down. And if the price goes back down I will buy another 1 or even more bitcoins.
Since you have enough money to invest, you can buy one BTC and hold it for a long time. Some of the new investors who are planning for long term investment may face some dilemma after reading this post of yours. New investors may think you are holding for a long time by buying one BTC and their investment is nothing compared to yours thus they may be reluctant to invest long term. If new investors read your post then they should definitely read my post I hope reading my post will clear all their dilemmas.

First you buy one btc amount of bitcoin with your deposited money and hold it for long time but new investors may plan to invest some amount regularly every month. If new investors think like this then welcome new investors for long term investment. Because with the investment of a certain amount of Bitcoin every month, it will be seen that the new investor's investment amount is much higher and the new investor may never have imagined that after a long time his total investment can be so high.
The difference between a person who invests one btc amount of money and a new investor is that the new investor will invest a part of his monthly income in bitcoins and a person who invests one btc amount of money together has invested money together every month. From this point of view, the person who invests every month is more likely to be successful in his investment because if he invests every month, if the value of Bitcoin increases, then that person will definitely profit.

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October 19, 2023, 10:08:30 AM
Merited by DubemIfedigbo001 (2), JayJuanGee (1)
 #3509

Buying at once seems more favorable for those who have bulk capital and have already made up their mind to invest same in Bitcoin. They don't see any need keeping those funds or employing DCA since the fund is readily available. This is not a bad strategy provided the intentions are to hold for long to be able to realize profits.
Yeah you have a point, for those who have enough funds that cannot be affected if using a bigger amount to buy Bitcoin can actually buy a higher amount of Bitcoin at a time and however DCA method may not be use for these kind of investment because the investor may already have more than enough money that could buy a whole lot of Bitcoin and still  have many reserve funds waiting.

So irrespective of how important DCA strategy is, perhaps there are some kind of investment or accumulating patterns that may not require the need to DCA because sometimes due to the kind of funds we may have, we can decide to invest at once instead of buying bit by bit, so I believe that DCA strategy is based more on the people that has a low capital and that's managing to accumulate Bitcoin.
Lump sum buying is more of advantage when bitcoin price is at the bottom line of the dip, at this time, all you need to do is to buy once and just sit down and watch how the price starts going up again and your investment will also start increasing with the timeline. Apart from that time, the DCA method is still the most welcome strategy to use in buying bitcoin, this can also help you have plans on some other investment you want to diversify to.

The DCA method is not for only the low income earners, it is used by everyone, but the rich and the poor to accumulate bitcoin at regular interver to increase their bitcoin investment portfolio at ease, since they have the passion to keep on accumulating. Since it is very difficult to know when the dip will come, but if you buy at lump sum when the price of bitcoin is not at the dip, you will not be happy when the price begins to dip below the price that you bought, and that is where DCA come to play because you are buying regular irrespectively of the price of bitcoin at that moment.

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October 19, 2023, 10:29:52 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Samlucky O (1)
 #3510

Yeah you have a point, for those who have enough funds that cannot be affected if using a bigger amount to buy Bitcoin can actually buy a higher amount of Bitcoin at a time and however DCA method may not be use for these kind of investment because the investor may already have more than enough money that could buy a whole lot of Bitcoin and still  have many reserve funds waiting.
Lump sum buying is more of advantage when bitcoin price is at the bottom line of the dip, at this time, all you need to do is to buy once and just sit down and watch how the price starts going up again and your investment will also start increasing with the timeline.

The challenge with seeking the bottom is that there is no technique that is accurate in predicting what the bottom is. If you remember, just few months ago Bitcoin price was stuck around $29k qwhich made many people assumed that was the bottom. Many bottom seekers went long in line with what you have said. Little did they know that price will dip lower to even below $25k thereby proving once again how difficult it is to determine the bottom.
I was actually tempted to go all in that period before I learnt DCA and setting limit orders following conversation in this thread and WO. I have to spread my position to lower prices and when the dip finally happened, most of those positions triggered at lower prices thereby giving me more Bitcoin than I would have gotten.

Now I apply the DCA completely and I hardly pay attention to the price, the dips, news or whatever... I just buy the amount set aside for Bitcoin. This truly brought a whole different feeling and peace.


Apart from that time, the DCA method is still the most welcome strategy to use in buying bitcoin, this can also help you have plans on some other investment you want to diversify to.
I can tell you for a fact that the DCA method is always a good strategy irrespective of the market condition. The advantages far outweighs any disadvantage you might envisage. Just know why you are buying Bitcoin and allow DCA help you achieve your target with less worries.


R


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October 19, 2023, 11:19:03 AM
Merited by Roseline492 (2), JayJuanGee (1)
 #3511

Yeah you have a point, for those who have enough funds that cannot be affected if using a bigger amount to buy Bitcoin can actually buy a higher amount of Bitcoin at a time and however DCA method may not be use for these kind of investment because the investor may already have more than enough money that could buy a whole lot of Bitcoin and still  have many reserve funds waiting.
Lump sum buying is more of advantage when bitcoin price is at the bottom line of the dip, at this time, all you need to do is to buy once and just sit down and watch how the price starts going up again and your investment will also start increasing with the timeline.

The challenge with seeking the bottom is that there is no technique that is accurate in predicting what the bottom is. If you remember, just few months ago Bitcoin price was stuck around $29k which made many people assumed that was the bottom. Many bottom seekers went long in line with what you have said. Little did they know that price will dip lower to even below $25k thereby proving once again how difficult it is to determine the bottom.
I was actually tempted to go all in that period before I learnt DCA and setting limit orders following conversation in this thread and WO. I have to spread my position to lower prices and when the dip finally happened, most of those positions triggered at lower prices thereby giving me more Bitcoin than I would have gotten.

Now I apply the DCA completely and I hardly pay attention to the price, the dips, news or whatever... I just buy the amount set aside for Bitcoin. This truly brought a whole different feeling and peace.


Lucky for you, you did not fall for the temptation that arises during that period. It was nice to know that you were fast enough to learn about DCA when you came across it, only a few would have adopted it. Your experience so far is exactly why advisors typically have people DCA. Statistically they would say you can't speculate the price of Bitcoin so put it all in. However, there is usually some uncertainty in the market that would make the investor to be concerned about this, so if you decide to DCA and you either buy into a decline market or an appreciating market you will kind of feel good either way. DCA aims to assist investors in overcoming the emotional hurdle of making a huge investment and then witnessing its decline.

Statistically speaking to avoid wrong timing of the market if I see a lump sum like that I wont buy immediately because of the dip, I will still do it the DCA way but this time huge amount because i see no harm in spreading it out over several weeks or month.


What you just said would it still be considered as a form of DCA'ing if you invested a lump sum at consistent intervals over a longer period of about 10 weeks like you said? 
Does that still qualify it as DCA'ing?

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adultcrypto
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October 19, 2023, 02:24:46 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #3512

- The method you're talking about is using small weekly savings to buy Bitcoin. But I'm wondering, what if you have a substantial amount you intend to invest in Crypto, let's say $100,000? How would you use DCA in that case?

If I have the money you mentioned, let's say $100k. That money is enough to buy approximately 3.5 bitcoins if converted at the current price. I have plans to buy at 3, 4 or 5 purchases, and it is situational. I will buy now with the amount of 1 bitcoin, I have a plan like this because I still see bitcoin still has the potential to go back down. And if the price goes back down I will buy another 1 or even more bitcoins.
Your response seem more like buying the dips than applying DCA. Buying 1 BTC now and expecting or waiting for further dips to buy more is not actually DCA but buying the dips.

If you are following DCA strictly in that case you can just decide to use the three months remaining to exhaust that money. One-third of the fund per month is not a bad plan. If price dips further the following month that means more Bitcoin will be added to your portfolio and if price rises, that means less Bitcoin will be purchased for the funds set aside. Since the DCA method do not pay much attention to the price, you will be fulfilled you invested the $100k into Bitcoin.

The beauty of this method is that if price rises the following month, that means the lower amount of Bitcoin you will receive the following month due to the rise in price, would have already been compensated for by the first month purchase that would have entered heavy profits following the rise in price. If in the third month it rises further, the previous months will do likewise to the higher price purchase, meaning in dollar value, you are not loosing.

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October 19, 2023, 04:07:39 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #3513

Lump sum buying is more of advantage when bitcoin price is at the bottom line of the dip, at this time, all you need to do is to buy once and just sit down and watch how the price starts going up again and your investment will also start increasing with the timeline. Apart from that time, the DCA method is still the most welcome strategy to use in buying bitcoin, this can also help you have plans on some other investment you want to diversify to.
you just talked about bottom line of the dip, how do you know when it gets to such point. Bitcoin price could be stable at 23k for months and there you think the bull has started unfortunately enough there will be another dip, so this is where DCA heads the system of accumulating Bitcoin

The DCA method is not for only the low income earners, it is used by everyone, but the rich and the poor to accumulate bitcoin at regular interver to increase their bitcoin investment portfolio at ease, since they have the passion to keep on accumulating. Since it is very difficult to know when the dip will come, but if you buy at lump sum when the price of bitcoin is not at the dip, you will not be happy when the price begins to dip below the price that you bought, and that is where DCA come to play because you are buying regular irrespectively of the price of bitcoin at that moment.
There is no time at which it is said to be unfavorable in buying Bitcoin, even buying bitcoin at 23k and it dips down to 19k, i should already know Bitcoin is volatile and that should have been on my A list, my 1 Bitcoin remains my 1 Bitcoin and its a must i see my profits as long it is for the long term

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October 19, 2023, 04:24:18 PM
 #3514

Sure it is better to get to fuck you status in your 20s, 30s or 40s, than to get there in your 50s or 60s, yet at the same time, you cannot try to act like you know what is going to happen, so the best that you can do is to try to make all of the better of decisions, and don't end up fuckning up by trying to rush matters.  There rare a lot of folks who never get to fuck you status, ever, so the mere fact of getting there late should not be a problem.

Also, if you only make it 1/4 or 1/2 to fuck you status, you swtill likely will be better off by doing the best that you can and making progress in that direction rather than considering yourself as a failure becuase you did not quite make it to fuck you status.

There are a lot of people in the world (even in affluent countries) who have very little to no savings/investments, and even the amounts of their investments and/or savings might not even amount to 1 or 2 years of their annual salary/cost of living... so fuck you status is usually in the 20x to 30x range of annual income/expenses and so people who reach such status are more likely exceptions rather than the rule.

Entry level fuck you status is just being able to quit your job and to be able to live off of your investments (and/or if you end up being able to receive benefits and/or pension payments), so frequently, if anyone plans to pull such lever at a lower age, even in their 40s, they have to keep in mind that they may well have to support themselves from their investments for quite a long time, so frequently, there are benefits to making sure that the calculations (and valuations) of the assets are based on sound assessments rather than just going based on the spot price of a volatile and fluctuating asset, and bitcoin fits into that highly volatile category.

Small changes in practices might have big rippling affects 10, 20 or 30 years down the road, and we might not even know the extent to which we made good decisions/choices or bad ones until our investment plays out for many years and/or when we either get close to fuck you status or we get into fuck you status (hopefully based on sufficiently accurate calculations).

If you can save money and invest in some reliable sector (which you can handle yourself) then there are bright chances that you will get success over a period of time.
I know a person story who has just a small job in Bank and he is accumulating cement shares for last 20 years for 10% of his monthly savings. His net worth of cement shares is now quite high and he has now achieved his Fuck You status.
With time we learn new things and that gives us idea whether we are moving in right directions or not that's the main reason why people who invest for long term are more likely to achieve there fuck you status.

Fuck crypto and fuck trading... especially talking about those ideas in this thread.

Let's talk about bitcoin and various methods to accumulate it without necessarily resorting to selling, and if you believe that you need to sell in order to acquire more bitcoin, then you probably need to go talk about those kinds of nonsense (gambling) ideas in some other thread.

For accumulating Bitcoin, the best way is to do it in DCA manner or investing small amount as and when available. You were talking about 200$ per week, this is quite a money for many people like me. Whatever one can invest easily and for long term is best way to accumulate Bitcoin. The reward is high on high amount but for that don't push yourself to things like taking loans for investment. Just be consistent in buying and don't forget to cash out some portion when you are getting some good profit.    

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October 19, 2023, 05:12:14 PM
 #3515


Fuck shitcoins.

DCA does not work with shitcoins.  You need other strategies with shitcoins.. so don't be so fucking dumb as to try to suggest that DCA works for shitcoins when the rug could get pulled on you at any time.. that is part of the things that you must prepare for when investing in shitcoins, how to hope that your "investment" or your "gamble play" does not get rug pulled prior to your ability to get out.

Another thing about shitcoins, this thread is not about shitcoins.. so take any talk about shitcoins to some other thread.

Apparently you heard of bitcoin, since you did actually use the word.. so maybe try to make your post again, but focus your little selfie on bitcoin, and then maybe we might try to figure out if you are saying anything meaningful and/or important.

This is the concern  Cool, Stictions don't own reliability and DCA works with only potential/reliable assets here in the crypto market this supremacy is only dominated by Bitcoin. Here is a point to be considered these shitcoins are worth with hype only and they don't possess any long-term potential and narrative. Intentionally what I want to say is Yes! Fuck Shitcoins.

I have been going through this comment here trying to figure out what the points are but from my understanding you still doubt the sufficiency of using the DCA strategy in Bitcoin accumulation, where else DCA has proven times without number, it is clear enough that DCA tops the lead in the strategies of Bitcoin accumulation

The accumulation journey in Bitcoin can face many ups and downs here, the efficiency depends on the accumulator and how he executes his strategy throughout the journey. DCA is a most recognized and effective accumulation strategy, moreover, you can say that this is one of the most discussed topics here in this thread and particularly all over the forum. Buying the Dips can be another effective strategy but it requires some analysis skills and proper risk management. At the same time with respect to market volatility strong holding power is required which is rare.

that's the whole brain behind buying the DIP and HODL.  Though impatience might creep in when there is a a sudden increase or some sort of market fluctuation and the tendency to sell it might seems the only option, if you are able to ignore the fluctuation and wait patiently your asset will yield something very reasonable with time

Navigating the unpredictable waters of the market, especially for newcomers, can feel like riding a rollercoaster. The ups and downs, the sudden shifts—it's enough to trigger fear, uncertainty, and even the notorious FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). These fluctuations, natural as they are, can sometimes make you question your decisions, sow seeds of doubt, and give birth to the infamous FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt).
Beginner and pleb like me, I think buying the dip is not the best strategy for me to use in accumulating Bitcoin because I can't time the perfect dip, the dip might last for years, and if I buy the dip it might keep dipping.

I chose the DCA strategy in accumulating my Bitcoin. By using the DCA strategy I can take advantage of market fluctuations by lowering their average cost per asset without risking too much capital at any point in time.

Hmm, Yes buddy your consideration is more efficient, This is what aformentioned by me, with DCA you can integrate other strategies and keep enforcing your  DCA regularly. Timing the Dips is a significant concern but if you can identify the timeframe and zone you can really time the dips as beginner still its not recommended at all.
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October 19, 2023, 06:11:47 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #3516

I have been going through this comment here trying to figure out what the points are but from my understanding you still doubt the sufficiency of using the DCA strategy in Bitcoin accumulation, where else DCA has proven times without number, it is clear enough that DCA tops the lead in the strategies of Bitcoin accumulation
The accumulation journey in Bitcoin can face many ups and downs here, the efficiency depends on the accumulator and how he executes his strategy throughout the journey. DCA is a most recognized and effective accumulation strategy, moreover, you can say that this is one of the most discussed topics here in this thread and particularly all over the forum. Buying the Dips can be another effective strategy but it requires some analysis skills and proper risk management. At the same time with respect to market volatility strong holding power is required which is rare.
Rightfully said, buying the DIP and holding is another effective strategy most persons apply to accumulate there Bitcoin. But no skills can be 100 percent accurate in predicting the price, so why not buy at specific intervals at that price instead of just hoping on the dip alone

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October 19, 2023, 06:34:44 PM
 #3517

But I'm wondering, what if you have a substantial amount you intend to invest in Crypto, let's say $100,000? How would you use DCA in that case?
- For me, my approach is to divide my capital into three parts. Every time Bitcoin corrects more than 20%, I put in one part of the capital. From the beginning of the year until now, I've only executed one of these parts. The other two parts are still waiting for the next correction cycles.
If I remember correctly, the price of Bitcoin was $20,250 as of January this year, and to have such a substantial amount of money, I would have just invested in all of it. The reason is that Bitcoin will not go back below $20k this year or even next year. In my opinion, Bitcoin has given people the opportunity to buy when the price was $20k at the beginning of the year and even was below $19k last year, which means no investor will see the $20k price again till probably the next bear market.

Having been in the Bitcoin space for some years now, I think there are some low prices I will see Bitcoin drop to, and I might not consider using the DCA at the moment. The reason is because if I buy at the low prices, let's say $15k–$20k, I know that definitely the price will spike again and go above that, which will guarantee me a huge profit. All I have to do is hold my asset tight, sit back, and wait for the bull market.
Of course, you are correct Dr.Bitcoin_Strange that there can be quite a few advantages towards lump sum investing, especially when it seem that price might have either dipped or might not go down any further.

There are no guarantees that they will end up going up, but it does seem that you are a bit more prudent when you buy on dips and you also consider that sometimes there are advantages to frontloading your BTC investment, even if there might be further dips, especially if you have longer term plans.. which also gets us to one of the reasons that it might not really matter that much if you buy at $30k or $28k or if you were able to get some at $25k or $20k, but in the end, we may or may not get any more opportunities to even buy sub $30k.. so there could be advantages to putting it all, even though when I get lump sums like that, I prefer to consider all three of the buying categories that involve buying right away, DCA and buying on dips, so it is a matter of personal perspective (and discretion) to the extent that the weighings in any of the categories might deviate from a 1/3 default or if more or less might go in one or more of the categories.
I have checked and analyze what you said JJG. You have to consistently watch and time the market for the dip to come before you could lump sum.

Your statement is not correct.  Lump sum and buying on dip are two different concepts.  Sure, they can be combined, but it is not accurate to proclaim that either they have to be combined or that we should strive to combine them.. In other words, sometimes it might be better to just buy rather than waiting for a dip, and if someone has a lump sum of fiat that is available to be invested into bitcoin, then there there are options regarding how to divide such money into the three main categories, which is 1) DCA, 2) buying on dip and 3) buying right away.. and even within the three categories there are likely various options regarding how to structure. including amounts, spreads, increments.

You speak only but a few advantages towards lump sum investing and neglect the disadvantages of it.

I doubt it.  You can weigh for yourself the advantages and disadvantages of any of the buying methods, whether DCA, buying on dips or right away, and advantage/disadvantages might depend upon what you might be attempting to achieve.  Sure if you are wanting to attempt some kind of maximizing the potential for you to get as rich as possible and as fast as possible, that might not be a clear enough wish because we cannot know exactly how the BTC price is going to perform, so we cannot really set our strategy in a way that will assure to reach our goal, but instead we likely need to balance our strategy with various scenarios in order to prepare us financially and psychologically for a variety of possible scenarios, even if ONLY one scenario is going to end up playing out, but we don't know which of the scenarios it will be even if we likely attempt to structure our practice in terms of what is most likely to play out, but it would still result in poor risk management to completely structure our approach as if what we consider to be the most likely scenario as if it were 100% guaranteed to play out, even though we might have had assigned such scenario to have the highest probability of playing out.

While most people don't do lump sum is because of market timing.

I doubt it.

You first have to presume someone has the ability to do lump sum, and then you are looking at a smaller group of people as compared to just saying "most people"  Most people don't do lump sum is because they don't even have the possibility to do it.  So if we then presume that they have the option, we still might recognize a variety of reasons that absent some peculiar circumstances, many of them might not want to lump sum with everything that they have available, even though they might choose to lump sum with a portion of it.  Someone who has $10k that s/he is able to invest, might choose to lump sum with 1/3rd of it $3,333.33  .. or perhaps some other amount, and may well divide other parts into DCA and buying on dip reserves.. But sure some of them might choose a different percentage and might choose to not do DCA. and may choose to wait for dips, and sure they might end up screwing themselves if they wait for dips that do not end up happening, but yeah people do dumb things because sometimes they are either greedy or scared and don't know enough about their investment, but merely because people do dumb things, we shouldn't necessarily presume that everyone is doing it .. or most are doing it?

It's not certain to predict precisely when the price dip will occur at any given time, and you don't always have the fiat to hold and wait for the decline, as you're unaware of its timing.

ok.. we are not really saying anything differently, here.

Statistically speaking to avoid wrong timing of the market if I see a lump sum like that I wont buy immediately because of the dip, I will still do it the DCA way but this time huge amount because i see no harm in spreading it out over several weeks or month.

No problem.  When you have a lump sum amount, then you have discretion regarding how you want to structure your buys.

If you have a lump sum, you can still divide it into parts, and you could decide whether you are going to buy some of those on dips and/or to DCA and/or to just buy right away.

So the portion that you have set for DCA, then you might take 1/3 and just set it up over 6 months or a year or even over 1 or 2 months.

So if you have $33k, then maybe you set them up for $1k per week for 33 weeks or you could pick a different amount per time period .. you could do daily or you could do bi-weekly, monthly or quarterly... there are quite a few options that would just set up your buy amounts based on how quickly you want to inject your purchases whether you want your amount to get put in fairly rapidly or you want to spread it aout for a while.

Many times people are using DCA because either they do not have lump sums available or because maybe they want to pace their investment, such as a person might hold $40k in equities, $30k in property, $30k in bonds $10k in cash and cash equivalents and $30k in gold.  Maybe if the person wants to slim down his/her gold holdings, from $30k to $15k, s/he will decide to slim down by $1k per month over the next 15 months or surely some other time period and amount could be used, but it is a way to pick a timeline to ease out of an investment and also sometimes people might just decide to stop investing in one asset or another and just divert those funds to other assets, and that would be another way to accomplish similar kinds of reallocations, without using lump sums but instead DCAing... even though in that last example lump sums would optionally be available to the person but easing from one investment to another frequently feels better, and may well have fewer potentially negative tax ramifications, too.
Thanks for explaining this in detail. There are actually many ways to approach DCA, but the most crucial aspect is sticking to your plan with discipline.

You are not exactly wrong, but I would suggest that one of the most crucial aspects is to attempt to tailor your plan to your own particular circumstances, and perhaps from time to time, you need to review the extent to which your personal circumstance might have changed enough to change what you are doing.  So it is good to have goals and targets and to tweak from time to time, but sometimes you could end up having long periods of time in which you are not really making any changes and just sticking with your same purchase amount.

If you don't mind, could you share the method you're currently using in detail?

I am not in the same phase of my investment journey as the overwhelming majority of the population, including members participating in this thread.  An overwhelming number of the world including members of this thread is either in accumulation phase or pre-accumulation phase.  Even though I accumulate from time to time, I mostly went through my BTC accumulation in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and sure sometimes it can be difficult for any of us to know where we are at in our bitcoin journey, but I doubt that it is going to be very helpful to attempt to do what I am doing when it does not really apply to what you likely should be doing. which is accumulating bitcoin and tailoring your bitcoin accumualtion to your own circmstances.

And aside from Bitcoin, are there any Altcoins you're interested in for long-term investments?

I personally believe it is best to get your shit in order in regards to bitcoin first.  Why fuck around with shitcoins, except maybe up to 10% of your bitcoin size, but even then if you invest in shitcoins, you are distracting yourself and you are diluting your bitcoin financials.

Yes, I know people are easily distracted into shitcoins and believe that there are ways to "get rich" quicker by fucking around with shitcoins, but the mere fact that a lot of folks are distracted into shitcoins does not mean that you should allow yourself to get lured into such overwhelming nonsense and gobble-dee-gook.. especially if you don't seem to know what bitcoin is, and you seem to have had not established a decent bitcoin position, yet..

If I remember correctly, the price of Bitcoin was $20,250 as of January this year, and to have such a substantial amount of money, I would have just invested in all of it. The reason is that Bitcoin will not go back below $20k this year or even next year. In my opinion, Bitcoin has given people the opportunity to buy when the price was $20k at the beginning of the year and even was below $19k last year, which means no investor will see the $20k price again till probably the next bear market.
Perhaps, as of January this year, $20,250 is already the year's low, according to your analysis. Currently, there are two conflicting predictions: one suggests that Bitcoin will rise from this point, while the other argues it will drop to test the $20,000 price and fill the CME gap. It's indeed challenging to predict which one will turn out to be accurate. However, I still intend to follow my plan and the analytics I've conducted.

Yeah, but the odds are not exactly equal that the price might go to $20k or not, so even if you consider that the BTC price might go to $20k, sure there is no problem in terms of preparing for such possibility with some amount of your available resources, but if you don't have any BTC or you have ONLY a little, you should probably be buying rather than fucking around with waiting for something that has decent odds of not happening..

So, how you prepare for up while simultaneously preparing for down partially will depend on how many BTC that you have but it depends on alot of your circumstances regarding your cashflow and your other assets and even your goals, so if you have $100k in your overall investment portfolio and you have $10k in bitcoin (that's 10%) and then you have some cash and some cashflow (maybe $100 per week extra for bitcoin and maybe $5k saved up for buying on dips), then you have to figure it out. How much of that saved up amount are you going to allocate to bitcoin buying as the money comes in, saving to buy on dips,  and how are you going to allocate to each of those categories... it is not obvious to not buy now or to wait or even to divide it 50/50, but some people are more inclined towards gambling than others.

Another thing is that BTC prices are not very much above the 200-week moving average (which is now about $28,200), so it is not exactly as if the BTC price is in a historically high price range.. and yeah the 200-week moving average does not exactly tell us that we are in a bottom, because further dips can end up happening, but still sounds like gambling to me when you are seeming to assign such high expectations as if $20k were equally as likely as $35k or whatever it is that you are wanting to proclaim.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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October 19, 2023, 09:06:37 PM
 #3518

Yeah you have a point, for those who have enough funds that cannot be affected if using a bigger amount to buy Bitcoin can actually buy a higher amount of Bitcoin at a time and however DCA method may not be use for these kind of investment because the investor may already have more than enough money that could buy a whole lot of Bitcoin and still  have many reserve funds waiting.
Lump sum buying is more of advantage when bitcoin price is at the bottom line of the dip, at this time, all you need to do is to buy once and just sit down and watch how the price starts going up again and your investment will also start increasing with the timeline.

The challenge with seeking the bottom is that there is no technique that is accurate in predicting what the bottom is. If you remember, just few months ago Bitcoin price was stuck around $29k qwhich made many people assumed that was the bottom. Many bottom seekers went long in line with what you have said. Little did they know that price will dip lower to even below $25k thereby proving once again how difficult it is to determine the bottom.
I was actually tempted to go all in that period before I learnt DCA and setting limit orders following conversation in this thread and WO. I have to spread my position to lower prices and when the dip finally happened, most of those positions triggered at lower prices thereby giving me more Bitcoin than I would have gotten.

Now I apply the DCA completely and I hardly pay attention to the price, the dips, news or whatever... I just buy the amount set aside for Bitcoin. This truly brought a whole different feeling and peace.
I totally agree with what you have said so far, and I do say that it is very difficult to find out the right time that Bitcoin will be at the bottom. Today I can say that Bitcoin was about $28,900k but within some little moments it started going down to $28,600 and lower, but didn't go below the range of $28k and, so far, the past few months, I can tell how bitcoin was in the range of $25k, and I do say that the $25k was the bottom for these months.
We can not tell the actual bottom unless Bitcoin has increased in a skyrocketing way and that is the reason why I have said that the $25k from the previous month we have experienced, and that is the bottom of it, and now, while looking at the price, it's $28k.
It's good to hear how you have applied the DCA strategy to your anthology, as this is the time to use the strategy to accumulate.

Apart from that time, the DCA method is still the most welcome strategy to use in buying bitcoin, this can also help you have plans on some other investment you want to diversify to.
I can tell you for a fact that the DCA method is always a good strategy irrespective of the market condition. The advantages far outweighs any disadvantage you might envisage. Just know why you are buying Bitcoin and allow DCA help you achieve your target with less worries.
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With what you have said so far and with the little knowledge I have, I do say that the DCA method is one of the best that an investor should use to accumulate more Bitcoin, because it can still help them in one way to learn how to reduce their expenses so that they can accumulate more coin without any worries about how badly the investment is going.

R


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October 19, 2023, 09:23:55 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #3519

It will really work, you can have to find the grind to do it every week or even every month. But for those who doesn't have that patience, they might as well implore the strategy of buying in just one lump sum, and just leave it in their wallet, forget about it and just comeback when we are in the bull run. So it really depends on each individual. But relatively, I will also used the DCA method, I mean I have been using ever since and it has work perfectly, at least in my case and most likely those old timers here (as opposed to JayJuanGee term of normies).

Buying once is also a very good method but the strategy is bias in the sense that it only favours those that are rich and have big capital to invest into bitcoin at a go. This method has a lot of advantages and a few disadvantages which are negligible. In its advantage; you’ll get to buy bitcoin as much as you can with that much capital you wish to invest into it, if the price goes up soon in the future and doesn’t come down again till bull run, you have accumulated a lot and the person using DCA won’t have such amount as you’ve earned with the same amount you invested in it initially. Unless they continue their DCA method to beat your total number of bitcoin held in the portfolio which will cost them more.

And the only disadvantage of it is that, when the price goes down and a person using DCA was able to accumulate more at that price, they would be able to buy more bitcoin than you in the long run since they’ll still continue employing the DCA strategy until they reach their target. They would spend lesser than you to get the amount of bitcoin you hold or even more than the one you hold in your portfolio. Buying once and the DCA method are all good but you just have to employ the one that works for you more, without having to touch the savings because 1BTC will still remain 1BTC until you take out of it.

The accumulation journey in Bitcoin can face many ups and downs here, the efficiency depends on the accumulator and how he executes his strategy throughout the journey. DCA is a most recognized and effective accumulation strategy, moreover, you can say that this is one of the most discussed topics here in this thread and particularly all over the forum. Buying the Dips can be another effective strategy but it requires some analysis skills and proper risk management. At the same time with respect to market volatility strong holding power is required which is rare.
Rightfully said, buying the DIP and holding is another effective strategy most persons apply to accumulate there Bitcoin. But no skills can be 100 percent accurate in predicting the price, so why not buy at specific intervals at that price instead of just hoping on the dip alone

This is a very wrong mindset to have when you want to invest in bitcoin. No one can predict the market structure, so it’s not advisable to keep hoping for a particular price before you can start your investment in bitcoin. While waiting for that price, you might have missed the opportunity to buy at the lowest price you’ll get it. This was why the DCA method was introduced and it has been a good way to accumulate a lot of bitcoin for investors in the market. If you check this strategy, it works for all class of people and not limitless to people that can use it. So, instead of waiting for the DIP, take the first step and start your investment now.

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October 19, 2023, 09:32:06 PM
 #3520

Buying at once seems more favorable for those who have bulk capital and have already made up their mind to invest same in Bitcoin. They don't see any need keeping those funds or employing DCA since the fund is readily available. This is not a bad strategy provided the intentions are to hold for long to be able to realize profits.
Yeah you have a point, for those who have enough funds that cannot be affected if using a bigger amount to buy Bitcoin can actually buy a higher amount of Bitcoin at a time and however DCA method may not be use for these kind of investment because the investor may already have more than enough money that could buy a whole lot of Bitcoin and still  have many reserve funds waiting.

So irrespective of how important DCA strategy is, perhaps there are some kind of investment or accumulating patterns that may not require the need to DCA because sometimes due to the kind of funds we may have, we can decide to invest at once instead of buying bit by bit, so I believe that DCA strategy is based more on the people that has a low capital and that's managing to accumulate Bitcoin.
Lump sum buying is more of advantage when bitcoin price is at the bottom line of the dip, at this time, all you need to do is to buy once and just sit down and watch how the price starts going up again and your investment will also start increasing with the timeline. Apart from that time, the DCA method is still the most welcome strategy to use in buying bitcoin, this can also help you have plans on some other investment you want to diversify to.

Sure there is a bit of a problem with a lump sum investor who fails to take further action, even if making lump sum investment at a relatively good price and not doing anything because his her BTC are mostly in profits after the time that she he bought.

For example, take the Hypothetical 1, lump sum buyer who bought 21 BTC in 2015 for $6,300  (average cost of $300 per BTC)

Right now he would have right around $603k .. not bad, right?

And compare that person to hypothetical 2 who bought $100 per week starting in June 2015, and he would have spent nearly $44k and accumulated 26.2471 BTC (worth about $753k and an average cost of $1,676).

or compare him to hypothetical 3 who might have lump summed into bitcoin and continued to buy $100 per week
and he would have spent right around $50,300 ($44k + $6,300) and accumulated 47.26471 BTC (21 + 26.2471) (worth about $1.36 million and an average cost of $1,064).
 
Which one would you rather be?

I think that the person who ongoingly invests into bitcoin is not ongly going to be better off financially and psychologically, s/he is going to be more actively paying attention to his/her BTC investment, but of course, people are free to do whatever they like.

The DCA method is not for only the low income earners, it is used by everyone, but the rich and the poor to accumulate bitcoin at regular interver to increase their bitcoin investment portfolio at ease, since they have the passion to keep on accumulating. Since it is very difficult to know when the dip will come, but if you buy at lump sum when the price of bitcoin is not at the dip, you will not be happy when the price begins to dip below the price that you bought, and that is where DCA come to play because you are buying regular irrespectively of the price of bitcoin at that moment.

Agreed, and part of the reason that it can be good to employ multiple strategies and have contingency plans.  It does not make buying in lump sums bad, but it seems that supplementing with either buying on dips and/or DCAing can cause the lump sum buying to become even more profitable than what it would have been, including that maybe the lump sum investing had also allowed a decent amount of front-loading of the investment that would not have been accomplished through either a DCA and/or a buying on dip approach.

Statistically speaking to avoid wrong timing of the market if I see a lump sum like that I wont buy immediately because of the dip, I will still do it the DCA way but this time huge amount because i see no harm in spreading it out over several weeks or month.
What you just said would it still be considered as a form of DCA'ing if you invested a lump sum at consistent intervals over a longer period of about 10 weeks like you said? 
Does that still qualify it as DCA'ing?

You are correct Agbamoni that sometimes members are calling what they are doing by the wrong labels, so it might be a bit unclear regarding what they mean exactly, and I am not even suggesting that a person needs to strictly follow any particular strategy, but it still is good to know the difference between each of them in order to attempt to better understand what you are doing and if you might want to change your strategy, or supplement it with other methods... but sometimes you might think that you are buying on dip, but you keep buying regularly which is a form of DCA, and then you think that since you are using your bonus money, then it is kind of like lump sum because it is not part of your regular cashflow, and surely all of that makes sense, but it can be confusing when people categorize their behavior as if it was purely falling into one of the categories when it really is a kind of hybrid.

[edited out]
..... and don't forget to cash out some portion when you are getting some good profit.    

You had me all the way, until I got to your last sentence.... and selling is not a necessary basic technique.. especially for beginners and maybe even folks who have been in bitcoin for less than 2 full cycles.

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