[edited out]
Although, one thing that I believe for sure is that as long as Bitcoin is fluctuating, it will drop and it will still skyrocket again, so what I am trying to say is that, even if Bitcoin drop now it will still rise again and as Bitcoin is dropping, it is also given some others who are yet to because an investor a chance to buy as much as they can and
hold it for dear life.
Even though you seem to be using that expression (hold for dear life) in order to talk about holding bitcoin for the long term, there are many times that the expression is not used very well, and seems to try to give the impression that bitcoin is an unsafe investment due to its likely inevitable ongoing volatility.
And, surely I believe that it is near inevitable that bitcoin is going to continue to be volatile for the next 4-10 years or longer, yet at the same time, one of the better ways to prepare for such volatility relates to position size and also relates to ongoingly buying it until you reach a bitcoin stack size that causes you to feel that you have enough.
Perhaps another thing about holding for dear life is that if any of us recognize and appreciate bitcoin is likely one of the best (and probably the best) asset that we are able to accumulate and hold, then we should be careful to develop strategies around which we either do not need to sell any of it, or if we are selling any of it, we are doing so in proportion to any of the other assets or currencies that we have accumulated.. so we should have systems in place in which we make sure that we preserve our most pristine asset (which would be bitcoin or at least should be considered as being bitcoin).
So the question for each person has to do with their own assessment regarding if they are sufficiently prepared for UP or not, and if they have $10k in an investment portfolio, and they are happy having $1k in BTC (which is 10%), then that is their choice, and maybe 10% is enough. I generally recommend that beginners have anywhere between 1% and 25% in bitcoin, so the details in regards to where they fall and if they have enough still is within their discretion.
Moreover, everyone have a choice to make, but the greatest choice that they should make is to make sure that they are holding on to something that worth holding, there are many people that are holding something that doesn't worth holding (shitcoins and the rest of them).
But as many that hold Bitcoin, 15% of 100% that they make during the week or month from what they are doing should be put into Bitcoin so that they can accumulate as much as possible that they can afford.
Although, it really depends on the amount of expenses that they do during the month, some expenses will make one not to put up to 15% into Bitcoin and some will put more than the 15% in Bitcoin weekly or monthly.
I propose 1-25% as the starting investment size into bitcoin, in part to suggest that people need to get off zero, but also to suggest that they have to figure out the level of investment that they are able to do. There are so many people who are not already into the practice of making sure that they are saving or investing, so they have to be able to transition into some kind of a practice in which they are able to save/invest and even get off zero in regards to their being able to establish systems to invest/save. So probably a conservative and reasonable target for a newbie would be to shoot for 10% saving/investment before going more aggressive, and the more that they develop systems, including making sure that they have a robust emergency fund of 3-6 months or longer, then the more aggressive that they are going to be able to be in their investment/savings into BTC and perhaps even go higher than the top of the range (25%) that I recommend for the beginner.
Another thing is that each person can tailor to their own circumstances, so if someone already has an income in that might be $700 to $2,400 per month and with maybe an average of around $1,600 per month and expenses that are between $800 and $1,200 per month with most of the time being around $1k per month, there may be a some months that the person could invest up to $1,400 per month into bitcoin, but most of the time their investment might ONLY be able to be $600 per month because that is all of the extra that they have in their disposable/discretionary income, which is the difference between their income and their expenses, so the ONLY ways to responsibly invest more than $600 per month would be to increase their income and/or to decrease their expenses... and sure if their income suddenly doubled ($3,200 most months), then they could potentially choose to retain the same level of expenses (at $1k most months) and to put all of the extra money (which would be $2,200) into bitcoin, which surely 66% is a high amount to be able to put into bitcoin, but it still might not be a kind of system that is sustainable - depending on what other things might be going on in that persons life in terms of if their might be others that contribute to decisions or others who are affecting his income and/or expenses... and surely, I am NOT even suggesting to NOT be as aggressive as possible, but each of us still needs to attempt to be reasonable and NOT go so far as we end up not having our emergency fund or NOT making sure that we are not putting too much stress upon either our finances or our psychology.
When you withdraw your bitcoin, you need to consider the future transaction fees and not just the current transaction fees, and lightning network is not a great place to store for the long term, but it is good if you want to conduct a bunch of small transactions. If you have a choice, I don't think that it is good to have your UTXOs to be smaller than $500, even if you might end up holding some of your money on exchanges longer than you otherwise would have. The guys who sent multiple small transactions to the same wallet are likely going to be in BIG trouble when they go to spend those transactions, especially if they want to do a larger transaction that has to combine several prior transactions (UTXOs). They might end up losing a lot of money on their bitcoin and/or not being in profits as great as they thought that they were... think about $5k in bitcoin that had been built based on 100 $50 bitcoin transactions, and then if you go to spend it, the fee is going to be 100x more than if the transaction had been in one UTXO.. .so maybe it could cost up to $2,500 to send it.. or if you figure out a way to reduce your transaction fees.. maybe you get it down to $500 for the transaction fees because you are combining 100 UTXOs that were $50 each.
Transaction fees can sometimes be the problem for some investors that are skeptical, but as for me I will likely say that it will be good for one to not think about the transaction fees and keep on investing every now and then as long as the money to invest is coming.
If you want to prepare for the future, you likely need to attempt to figure out how bitcoin works, including if you are managing your own UTXOs, and many of us emphasize to try to maintains some if not most or all of your BTC in private wallets rather than holding your BTC with third parties. So when we are managing our own coins, we need to know how UTXOs work, otherwise we might not realize how many fees we might end up incurring in the future, especially if we end up creating a bunch of UTXOs that have low quantities of BTC.
I think that we need not be discouraged from investing into bitcoin based on concerns of present and/or future transaction costs, but we should attempt to learn enough about these kinds of matters, especially if we are sending a bunch of low value transactions and creating UTXOs that might become very expensive to spend in the future, which might even contribute to our miscalculating how much value we actually hold if it is expensive to transact in bitcoin based on limitations that we had ended up creating for ourselves.
Yes even if @JayJuanGee has made his own analysis, it is proper that any investor should take out time and check if what the other person dropped is suitable for him or her. You have heard JayJuanGee saying several times that the DCA investment method is the best approach, but other users thinks otherwise by saying other methods suits them. JayJuanGee will only share what he thinks is right for him, which I think is an NFA for any one who decides to follow what he shares.
I frequently try to give examples to attempt to help members to be able to think for themselves and to account for a variety of scenarios, so I am not necessarily ONLY describing what is good for me, and for example I have described DCA as the best out of the 3 BTC accumulation techniques (the other two being lump sum investing and buying on dips), yet there are surely times in which lump sum investing and buying on dips could be better, and there are also times in which we might need to think about either HODLing because either we run out of money, or we made a mistake or we have potentially reached some accumulation level goal in which we are converting to other strategies.
The same is true for selling. Generally speaking selling is not a good technique to use for the accumulation of more bitcoin, but guys will engage in selling, trading, gambling and they will also employ a variety of financial instruments in order to leverage their bitcoin or leverage their cash in order to buy more bitcoin, which may or may not end up being good and/or smart techniques, but those techniques are available and some people employ them successfully - yet if we are trying to appeal to the overwhelming number of normies (normal people), they are not necessarily going to have those kinds of skills to employ various financial instruments or to trade or gamble successfully with their bitcoin, so frequently I am trying to describe techniques that are more basic and more likely that normal people are going to be able to carry out in order to both accumulate bitcoin and to increase their odds of improving their lives in the future, but at the same time it is their own responsibility to figure out these matters for themselves.
An overwhelming number of times, when it comes to describing various BTC accumulation techniques, I am not describing what is best for me because I already went through an overwhelming majority of my BTC accumulation between 2014 and 2016, and so maybe I am describing some techniques that I have already employed, and maybe I am wanting others to learn how to accumulate BTC, yet bitcoin is not a ponzi scheme and my investment into bitcoin likely does not even depend upon whether I attempt to help others or to give back by providing these kinds of techniques and ideas.
Also, don't get me wrong, I am not completely benevolent when I am contributing to ideas in this forum because I am also able to learn through participation, and develop several of my own techniques through the sharing of ideas with others in this interactive forum environment that is mostly about a topic (bitcoin) in which many of us share a variety of interests, and so that may be part of the reason that many of us are here and participating interactively rather than merely reading various related topics on the internet.
People who know about Bitcoin are increasing their bitcoin portfolio. I am a lerner to this thread. I've been following this thread regularly.
I am a small businessman. I have often heard discussions about Bitcoin in various places but did not dare to buy Bitcoin because the price of Bitcoin is too high which I cannot afford to buy at once. I came to know about Bitcoin last year when the price of Bitcoin was around $21000 but despite my strong desire I could not purchase Bitcoin because I did not have enough money.
But when I came across this thread I was glad to know one thing. I understand that a small amount of money regularly used to invest in bitcoins and how can i increased my bitcoin portfolio.
This is a great opportunity for me. I will be able to grow my bitcoin portfolio regularly by keeping small amounts of money in bitcoins. By doing this, one hand my business will not have any problem and the other hand my bitcoin investment will also increase. I want to invest for long term. As my investment volume will be low in that case I think nothing to lose.
With any investment, including bitcoin, there is always something to lose, which includes that you could lose all of the amount that you invested.
So you should be considering to weigh how much that you want to put into bitcoin based on the possibility that you could lose all of it.
Another thing when you are investing you can consider both upsides and downsides, so you could calculate various scenarios in which you could lose all of your bitcoin (and the value that you invested into it) and you could calculate various scenarios in which the BTC price goes up and that your investment into bitcoin could well end up gaining in value at a greater and faster rate than other placed that you might choose to invest your money, so you could well end up considering how much to put in and how aggressive that you want to be in regards to your bitcoin investment based upon your various calculation of probabilities in either direction and also your own various factors.. such as
the 9 factors that I listed in another one of my posts.
Hopefully, you are able to continue with whatever is your bitcoin accumulation journey in such a way that you do not end up overly extending yourself and you are able to build your BTC holdings as aggressively as you are able to do so in order to increase your chances of having more options in the future, even though for sure it is neither guaranteed that you will perform better by having had investing into bitcoin, and it is not even guaranteed that BTC prices will go up rather than down or even potentially to zero... and at the same time, you still can figure out what is a reasonable investment size in regards to your own situation.
By the way, Antonil, I did a quick review of your historical posts, and you seemed to have spent a lot of time searching for bounties and other waste of time begging kinds of projects that makes it more difficult to believe that you might be a serious poster who is really trying to consider more serious investing matters which might attempt to revolve around ways that you might be able to use money that you earn to buy bitcoin, in the event that you might happen to be serious about building your bitcoin in serious ways.. presumptively from various kinds of earned cashflows that you might have, maybe that might go beyond the begging and bounty type circles.
Mr @JayJuanGee dropped a tool
here which may or may not be that efficient enough to calculate based on the 200 - Week moving average on when to buy and also when to sell.
Lastly, knowing that Bitcoin investment is usually for a longer term and patience is needed even when the market falls in bearishness, this is understanding how volatile Bitcoin can be.
Whatever that is shared in this place by anyone is mainly for educational purposes and references. It shouldn't be relied on or be taken as a financial advice. When to buy or sell your Bitcoin is strictly your call and yours alone. It is always advisable to DYOR before making any investment decision. This is very important so that if your investment goes either ways you will know it was your call and not have to blame someone else.
This place is just a plan and a goal to implement to get enough opportunity to invest in Bitcoin long term. The advice you want to give is not correct Bitcoin is doomed if you try to sell it at this time. (Whoever thinks of selling bitcoins now lives in a fool's paradise) Selling bitcoins is not possible at all. You learn to accept and aim longer. Accumulate small amounts of bitcoins for a long period of time which will help you reach your goals later on.
I agree with you that here is a place where we guide ourselves on the strategies we can use to accumulate Bitcoin with our present financial capability. Someone can sell his Bitcoin because he/she is new to Bitcoin investment, and lacks the patience to hold his Bitcoin for the long term if he/she sees some profit from his Bitcoin investment.
Of course, each of us has the ability and the discretion to either trade and/or to sell our bitcoin in order to attempt to buy back cheaper, yet at the same time, if we come to realize that we are working towards developing and putting into practice a longer term strategy - which is what investing should be about, then screwing around with trading or selling and trying to buy back cheaper are not good strategies in terms of both building your bitcoin holdings but also recognizing that bitcoin is amongst the best, if not the best of investment vehicles (in the sense of being a pristine asset), so it does not tend to be a good idea to be playing around with bitcoin in those kinds of ways, even if we see short-term profits on paper.... unless we have figured out a plan in which we have already accumulated beyond our goals and we are not necessarily still in a BTC accumulation phase.
There might be some need to start to distinguish that in this thread we are mostly talking about various accumulation strategies, and surely OP had never really been very excited about DCA, and in that regard had not really even mentioned DCA as being intermixed with buying on dips and HODL... yet at the same time, if we are largely unclear about our own strategies to buy on the dip, the logical opposite of that would be to sell on the way up, yet selling on the way up could really be a problem for those guys who are still in their early accumulation stages, even though they may well be tempted to sell some of their BTC on the way up in order to buy back lower. So maybe I should suggest that any guys who are tempted to sell on the way up, you have to be careful in order to recognize that you might not be able to buy back and if you are still accumulating BTC, but you are selling on the way up at the same time, then you are likely going to be either wasting your time or spinning your wheels to be selling out of one hand and buying back with the other, and hopefully your sales are going to be higher than your buys; however, since bitcoin has a lot of tendencies to go up during certain periods of time, you may well end up buying at higher prices than you sold, which really is not doing your portfolio very good.. and it could be even worse if you are needing to account for both fees and potential tax consequences, too.
If they want to became a trader they should learn how to discipline their selves and learn how to create their own strategy base on the analysis we do since all of this will be rewarding if we can achieve our target goals thru the efforts we made there. So before acquiring do some good analysis first since this could help us build more better portfolio and have a chance to gain a profits.
I think that even if sometimes lapse into conversations that relate to trading, trading surely is not the emphasis of this thread, and it takes us a bit far afield if we are thinking that trading might be any kind of reasonable mechanism (or tool) to try to accumulate more bitcoin - especially also since trading requires way more specialized skills as compared with engaging in various forms of buying to accumulate BTC.
Bitcoin is a long term high yielding crop. The crop that takes a long time to produce is also very profitable. If you had bought $550 worth of bitcoins in 2015-2016, $550 would have grown about 15-16 times.
Well? It depends on when you bought in 2015 to 2016, since the BTC price moved between a bit less than $200 at various points in time in 2015 and in the very end of 2016, BTC prices got into the $900s, and even if we were to pick a price somewhere in the middle or even maybe suggest that were were able to accumulate a whole bitcoin at $550 during that period (which would be perfectly reasonable to have been able to accomplish that), then going from $550 to our current prices is getting close to 100x rather than 15 to 16x.. or maybe if we want to measure our current BTC price at $46,200, then that would be right around 84x..
Even if we were to use the higher end of the BTC prices and to presume that we might have ended up buying BTC at around $900, which would have meant that we paid too much based on the overwhelming majority of BTC prices during that time period, but surely sometimes mistakes are made, yet even with an average cost of $900 per BTC, we still end up coming out with right around 51x in profits, which is way better than the 15x to 16x that you had mentioned.
In other words, it is a bit unclear what you are talking about with regards to ONLY getting 15x to 16x worth of profits for those who had done much or if not most of their BTC accumulation in the past 8-9 years.
One piece of advice I have for everyone, which I'm very keen to implement myself, is to say you have $20 and invest it in Bitcoins, and then invest $20 in Bitcoins, so at one time you have $20+$20. = $40 will multiply.From there you keep a portion of the profit for yourself and reinvest it with Bitcoin. At some point that $40 of yours will turn into almost $400. Thus $400 to $4000 then $4000 will influence you towards success.
If there is any mistake between the words, please correct it.
Giving advice is probably not a great idea, and at the same time, you seem to be suggesting that there is some kind of guarantee that BTC prices will go up another 10x or 100x from here, and surely you might be correct, yet I doubt that it is a good idea to merely just buy bitcoin a couple times, with something like $40 and then expect to get rich on it, and it seems that in this thread we had been suggesting consistent and ongoing investment, and even though there may some portions of an accumulated BTC stash that are in higher profits than others, and even if your average cost per BTC might go up with the passage of time, it is probably better to have had accumulated 20 BTC at an average cost of $1k per BTC than to have had only accumulated 10 BTC at an average cost of $500 per BTC, and so in that regard, there is some value to continuing to accumulate BTC, even if your cost per BTC may well continue to go up.
.
- in which case it really doesn't matter when you buy specially since that strategy is a long term one and whether you buy at $5000 or $5500 doesn't make much difference when price goes up in long run as it doesn't matter if you bought at $220 or $240 back in 2015 now that price is 25 times more!!!
I am a lerner in this thread. I am following this thread regularly and trying to learn all information related to Bitcoin. According to your information, if I buy some $0 bitcoins now and hold them long-term, how much profit can I get after 4-5 years? Can you give an idea?
I frequently like to suggest that guys consider getting into bitcoin and being in bitcoin 4-10 years or longer, and of course if you are planning on being in bitcoin for at least a whole cycle (which is considered to be 4 years), then at least you meet a presumptive category of someone who is thinking longer term rather than shorter term.. or at least that you are thinking in terms of at least going through a whole cycle.. which is a good start.
Ultimately you have to think for yourself what your goals might be, and of course, there are no guarantees with any investment, and I would suggest at minimum you would want your investment into bitcoin or anything else to at least do better than staying in dollars or whereever might be your alternative place that you might put your investment.
And, surely some folks do not even save or invest, so they don't even know what it is like to save or invest, and so in that regard, the alternative place for a non-saver and a non-investor would be to use their money for consumption, and so if we are considering that the value would be the same now as compared to in the future, there would always be a preference to consume today rather than deferring our consumption for 4-5 years or longer, so in that consumption mindset, then you would want to have some confidence that you might be able to consume more in 4-5 years than you are able to consume today.. or maybe your consumption retains its value and it is merely deferred.
In either way that you choose to consider your value, there is no guarantee that bitcoin will be worth more in the future as compared to today or that it would be to your advantage to invest into bitcoin... those are choices that you need to make, and surely your view of bitcoin as compared to other investment or consumption opportunities that you have would be a factor to consider.. .and if you do not have enough confidence to overcome such a concern, then likely you would be better off to study bitcoin rather than investing into it, or if you feel that you want to get started, because "everyone else is doing it" and you do not want to miss out, then probably you would be better off to at least start DCAing into bitcoin while you are studying it and and the same time pick an investment size that you believe to be practical within your own discretionary cashflow situation (your income as compared with your expenses). Lump sum investing into bitcoin would presume that you already have some conviction about your investment, and even those who lump sum into bitcoin may well be better off to continue to invest in terms of supplementing with DCA and buying on dips, and in the end, you have to come to your own conclusions regarding how to enter and which kinds of practices to follow and if you believe that you might be better off by buying into bitcoin rather than not.
Merely because many of us consider bitcoin to be amongst the best (if not the best) asset that anyone could buy, you do not necessarily need to either agreee with that assessment or to agree that bitcoin is a place that you would like to invest whether you lump sum buy into it (accumulate) or DCA or buy on dips or some combination of the three.
