I cannot remember if you had stated some of your particulars Obim34 - yet even your forum registration date is not very far into the past, so if you are only recently starting to accumulate BTC, such as even less than a year, then from my point of view it can take a quite a bit of time to build up your stash in such a way that you should even be considering reducing your DCA amount, even if ATHs end up being reached in the next 1-2 years, and sure there could be some value in modifying your approach if it starts to seem that we are in blow off top territory, and so these are not easy choices in regards to how to manage the situation in terms of holding off buys or letting cash to build up in terms of preparing for dips that may or may not end up happening.
You mean my particulars, like in what term? Is it how long I have been accumulating my Bitcoin, my registration date on the forum can not be use to calculate the amount of Bitcoin in my portfolio,
Most important in regards to particulars would be how long you have been investing into bitcoin and some of the techniques that you might have used during that time to build your BTC holdings. None of us here have been asking anyone to disclose their quantity of BTC, so frequently we speak in terms of hypotheticals... and sure some guys have described their own numbers but it is not necessary. Even with myself, I change around my amounts from time to time, but I still tend to describe various timelines and various techniques that I had been using along the way, since when I first got into bitcoin in late 2013.
Timeline is a kind of important factor since many times, guys try to spout out various kinds of preferred practices whether that is trading or waiting for dips, and frequently we can compare their entry timeline and throw in some hypothetical amount for what their DCA might have had been, and it is up to them to compare if whatever technique that they had been employing would have ended up coming close to or even beating a straight-forward persistent and consistent DCA strategy... and even that takes time to play out.. maybe 4-10 years or longer, since anyone might be able to play some short term price waves for a while, but who cares?
If in this thread we are mostly trying to emphasize ways that any of us might employ longer term techniques in which we are going to be advantaged 4-10 years or longer, then we should not necessarily be trying to count our results in the shorter terms, and surely we are not talking about trading here anyhow, so maybe those guys should go to some other thread to talk about those kinds of techniques.
If your technique might be giving you results in the ball park of a straight forward DCA strategy, then that is all likely fine and dandy, but still personally, I am not going to be very impressed with whatever you are claiming to be your results if you are bragging or whatever in terms of some timeline that is less than 4 years - absent if there might have been some specific reason that you ended up needing to either plan such a shorter strategy or maybe something unexpected (like health related) happened in your life that caused an emergency that may well mean that your timeline (such as death or incapacitation) would end up getting cut short if you did not cash out some or all of your BTC earlier than planned.
it might also be something worth it but I still do not consider it enough for my holdings.
Well each of us has to decide how aggressive that we are able to be, so hopefully you are mostly comparing the performance of your holdings to your own situation, so if you are making your situation better by building a BTC portfolio, then it may not really matter very much if the amount is very much. There have been plenty of times in which I have mentioned that even if any of us might be in the practice of saving 10% of our salary per year, it is still going to take us in the ballpark of 10 years to have had saved up 1 year worth of salary, so then within whatever saving/investing practice that we choose to follow, we should be attempting to figure out how aggressive that we want to be in terms of potentially providing ourselves with more options later down the road, and each of us should know our own particulars and timeline.
So you mean it's convenient to continue DCAing even after Bitcoin reaching a new ATH?
If you are earlier in your investing into bitcoin timeline, I would imagine that you are building your BTC stash, and trying to time ups and downs can take any of us out of such a mindset and practice of accumulating and building our BTC stash. I personally do not recommend selling BTC or even stopping stacking BTC in order to accumulate more because of possible price dips that may or may not end up happening - especially for guys in the earliest part of their BTC accumulation journey.. Yet, at the same time you have to figure out these matters based on your own circumstances.. including considering the
9 factors that I mentioned in my other post.
So yeah, the first whole cycle in bitcoin (which would be 4 years) can be quite a dilemma that each guy has to decide how he is going to accumulate BTC if that is what he is striving to do, and it could even be the case that it is difficult for the first 10 years of investing in bitcoin or anything else while you are in the earliest stages of building your investment portfolio with bitcoin and/or any other investments that you might have, and if you might be trying to get to 1 whole year or even to end up getting to having several years worth of salary/expenses in your investment portfolio. whether you are starting out with bitcoin and cash as your exclusive holdings in the beginning and then at some point you might end up working into having other kinds of holdings or end up being more informed by your having had built up your BTC holdings to figure out what kinds of strategies you are going to employ to deal with bitcoin's likely ongoing inevitable volatility.
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Because maybe they find your words good and they compare each years bitcoin performance. Also don't see any problem with it since I also think that valid observation especially to those people thinking about 2023 is good time to have some bitcoin since by year 2024 halving season is coming. 2024 is really promising since it might open up some great insights regarding what the future could bring that's why maybe there's a lot of excited people speculate and see your point as brilliant one.
For people didn't ride with the price action happened on year 2013,2017 or 2021 maybe they would surely participate on current event so let see if we can see some good price performance for bitcoin since a lot of people look forward for great things to happen this year.
Fair enough on your observation, and even if nothing related to BTC price performance is guaranteed, it does seem to be the case that we are entering into a quite good set up for ongoing good (or even great) future BTC price performance in 2024 and maybe even going into 2025 if there may be reason to continue to have some expectations to give some value to past 4-year cycle patterns.
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Exactly, you should keep continue to invest the same amount to get the desired result if you are following DCA, and the goal should not be the coming ATH if you really want to get the potential return, just accumulate the coins consistently and see how much your portfolio's value grew after a complete cycle.
Some guys are still going to be disappointed if they invest through a whole cycle and then they see that they are barely breaking even, even after 4 years invested. There surely are not any guarantees that you are going to be ahead after 4 years, and maybe that is part of the reason that 4-years is a kind of beginning timeline for the idea of employing long term investing of 4-10 years or longer.
There is nothing really wrong with trying to time selling the top, but surely there are a lot of dangers in regards to that and then also potentially playing around with your whole BTC holdings during such a play.. especially if you are still in the stages of building it, so maybe getting through at least a whole cycle will help guys to have perspective regarding how to treat their BTC in terms of maintaining practices in which there are no needs to sell large amounts of your BTC, even though you may well choose to sell some of your BTC during the cycles, but if you are in the earlier stages of BTC accumulation, then you may well not be in a financial position to really be playing those kinds of games in which you are trying to time the BTC market.
There are folks who might have a lot more assets, so if they might have gotten into bitcoin in BIGGER ways (such as having large lump sums from the start), and they might be in a better position to try to play the BTC waves, but even if we might look at some large investors, such as Tim Draper buying around 30,000 BTC in mid 2014 (at around $600 per BTC), he ended up riding quite a few of the subsequent BTC waves and claims to not be in the practice of selling his BTC and/or trying to play BTC price waves, but instead mostly just holding his BTC through the various waves, and nearly 10 years later, he is going to have a lot more options in terms of those particular 30k BTC and selling those BTC whenever he likes, and not even really needing to sell very large quantities of them, and still being considerably into profits with those BTC at most feasible prices, whether we are in an up wave or a down wave, he still can shave off some of the BTC if he were to want to..
Overall 2023 was a good year for bitcoin and bitcoiners.
Yes, it's relatable to those who took the very opportunity of starting up their Bitcoin journey and also those who kept consistent in their Bitcoin accumulation. The market was open to everyone but not everyone seized the opportunity, so putting into consideration the way the market is moving it will also accept more investors, likely few months after the halving then we expect to experience an ATH, which may not be the perfect spot to hop in.
2023 was a good year for Bitcoin and Bitcoiners. I had the opportunity to join this forum in 2023 to learn about Bitcoin, and it has helped me to understand Bitcoin and also start accumulating Bitcoin with the DCA strategy at regular intervals. The DCA strategy has always been helpful to me when I'm accumulating Bitcoin because it helps me to take care of my financial needs. We are expecting 2024 to be better than 2023 for Bitcoin and Bitcoiners, because the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved last week, and the Bitcoin halving will also happen this year.
Yes I agree with you. I am new to Bitcoin. According to your information, the year 2023 was very good for Bitcoin and Bitcoin users. But for the last 7 days, Bitcoin has been going down, that is, the beginning of 2024 has not been good at all.
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoinBitcoin Price Review Expect Bitcoin to increase in value and halve within this year. I think 2024 will be a memorable year for those who use the DCA method.
We are only 2 weeks into 2024, and so far 2024 has been very good for bitcoin too, even if price performance has been a bit volatile, but who cares, especially if you may well be new to bitcoin, then you better be buying regularly and not getting too worked up about short-term BTC price moves. But hey, in the end you can do what you like, including getting distracted by short-term price moves.
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Plus people in the topic who are convinced that there will be "NO MORE MAJOR DIPS" should stop thinking binarily and start thinking in probabilities. Because with the macro-economics looking bad in major economies like China and the United States, it could start a systemic event that might take the economies in different regions around the world with them.
The unemployment data in the United States will be a leading indicator in knowing if there will be a sudden crash, and if Jerome Powell starts to pivot - For the wrong reasons. The "soft-landing" might not happen. It will be "higher for longer" until something will break.
It sounds like you keep praying for a dip that might not happen.
Haha of course, with my strategy I'm always praying for a DIP!
But don't make it sound that the hypothesis about a possible recession caused my a macro-economic failure is not supported by factual basis. It isn't based on "prayers", ser. Simply data.
At least you admit that you are doing a lot of praying, and perhaps too much praying and not enough buying of BTC.
The Federal Reserve has two mandates,
- Maximum employment
- Price stability
Jerome Powell must accept that to serve one, he must disable the other. In most of history inflation was never truly curbed until unemployment rate surges, causing a recession.
I know that you have been ongoingly and persistently distracted by such Macro nonsense... and since when should we have gotten distracted into giving very many shits about what the Fed is doing? Sure liquidity is a factor, but we still have bitcoin the three main factors that have ongoingly influenced BTC prices which is 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects (
as outlined by Trace Mayer).
Hopefully you are adequately prepared for UP, and you are not regretting too much that you had ended up holding way too much cash in August, September and October waiting for dips that did not end up happening then, either... but hey, whatever, you do you.
My biggest purchases was during the year when I made this topic. Most of my savings until that time went into Bitcoin.
O.k. I will create an example 8 from this information... instead of my earlier example 7 that had previously been meant to attempt to approximate what I was understanding your situation to be and what a DCA approach would look like in those circumstances.
Example 1: This person has not accumulated any bitcoin, and has an income that is between $300 and $2k per month and most months his income is around $1,200, and monthly expenses of between $600 and $1,000 per month and most months $800. This person has a debt of $1,400 that he services at $50 per month with a 6% interest rate that he services at $50 month with an expected payoff in 30 months (2.5 years), and he has an emergency fund of about one month's expenses $1k.
Example 2: This person has the same monthly income, expenses and debt and emergency fund of Example 1, yet he had been accumulating BTC at about
$10 per week in the last 18 months with $810 invested and about 0.0378 BTC accumulated (currently worth $1,625.40).
[...............]
Example 4: This person has the same situation as Example 2, Except that he both lump sum invested into BTC and started to DCA at $10 per week in the same way as Example 2, The lump sum amount was right around $2,200 and he got 0.1 BTC out of those early lump sum transactions. Therefore, his whole BTC holdings is about 0.1378 BTC accumulated. (currently worth $5,925.40)
[...............]
Example 7: This person has similar circumstances as Example 2 with a
$10 per week investment into bitcoin, except his investment timeline goes back to May 2016 (rather than merely 18 months), so he ended up investing $4k during that time and accumulated about 1.04 BTC. (currently worth around $42,500).
Example 8: This person has similar circumstances as Example 4 with mostly a lump sum investment towards the earlier stages of his investment.. and so there will be a bit of an assumption that the lump sum investment amount will have come from saving $10-$15 per week through most of 2016, 2017, and 2018 (so we will estimate be a bit generous and estimate the savings and lump sum amount to have had been $2,400), and so if the purchase of BTC was made based on BTC prices through out 2019, we might have to estimate an average cost per BTC around $7k, which would be around 0.32432432 BTC, and then if we presume $10 per week investment into bitcoin starting on April 1, 2019,
(rather than merely 18 months), so the
DCA portion of his investment ended up being $2,510 and accumulated about 0.15787 BTC, and so his total invested would be $4,910 (lump sum of $2,400 and DCA of $2,510) with a total amount of BTC 0.48219432 (0.32432432 + 0.15787). (currently worth around $20,493).
So part of my point in showing example 8 is to suggest that a guy is going to likely be better off to include DCA into his investment approach, even if he might start out with a lump sum, and surely, even just getting started with DCA right from the start (which example 7 shows) would have performed even better results than example 8.
If there are some facts that I am missing, then let me know, yet I stick by my assertion that anyone new to bitcoin, should get the fuck started as soon as possible, whether that is strictly just DCA while trying to figure out matters, or maybe lump sum investing and then supplementing with DCA until reaching some amount of BTC accumulation that is comfortable for his situation or at least triggers him to adjust his approach.
Surely, I have no problem with the idea of also holding some money aside in order to buy on dips too... but if the buying of BTC is quite regular in the earlier stages of BTC investing, there are going to be periods in which the BTC price dips and since DCA is already taking place, then buying at those lower dip prices would also be taking place under such dip conditions..
If I may ask with our disrupting this thread what is the main purpose of accumuting bitcoin for long term, cause if you are not selling When it's high and making profit or is there something I dont know about the long term investment in bitcoin and its benefits, cause I'm a little bit confused on why I should be accumulating bitcoin for long term if not to make profit.
In the end, you can do whatever you want, and if you get some kind of pleasure out of getting 30% profits or doubling your money, then maybe that will satisfy you, yet guys who are frequently taking profits will potentially disadvantage themselves in terms of longer term compounding of the profits.. .so if we think of longer term as 4-10 years or longer, then it is more likely that we might have been able to go through several compounding events, versus shorter term views that cash out more frequently. For sure, traders run risks of timing their profit taking in bad ways too, and so it is not necessarily wrong to be a trader, but we are not really talking about those kinds of specialized dynamics in this thread - instead we are mostly referring to the kinds of strategies that anyone could take without necessarily having specialized knowledge of bitcoin price performance or even trading techniques. which are not easy skills to develop, even someone who might spend a lot of time attempting to learn and practice trading techniques.
Are they any hidden benefits of doing this.
It's not really hidden, but sometimes it can take a while to learn about what you are investing into, and some folks consider bitcoin to be amongst the best of investments available, if not the best, so it does not make a whole hell of a lot of sense to be attempting to fuck around with trading such an asset and then get caught on the wrong side of such a trade. So, many times people do not recognize or appreciate what bitcoin is, and it could take many years to really come to appreciate what bitcoin is, so it is not really any kind of a secret, even though it can take some people longer than others in order to figure out what bitcoin is, and so many times, I suggest that people get started with bitcoin as soon as possible, and that is merely learning about one's own finances, and then they can also learn about bitcoin at the same time as they are investing and maybe they start out investing relatively small amounts but as they learn they might also develop confidence to increase their investment amount to become more aggressive..and those are individual discretionary choices..
I'm not a hater, I just want to learn, if purpose is not know then misuse is inevitable. I'm coming to understand how DCA works by going through the thread but, I don't see a place my dcaing ends for me to make profit.
If you are thinking about investing, then you can try to think about 4-10 years or more into the future and then potentially having more options... if you think in shorter time frames for profits, then you would have the option to take profits whenever you want to, but you may well end up not being able to benefit from compounding effects, especially if you are thinking in shorter time frames or even taking profits on fairly regular bases. The choice is yours regarding whether and/or how to get into BTC.
I'm not looking for a get rich scheme in bitcoin accumulation. I just want to know the exact reasons that would be motivating everyone to hold for long without any sell plan.
Maybe you have not studied bitcoin enough to understand the value that bitcoin is bringing to the space in terms of a paradigm changing contribution that resolved the double spend problem and at the same time within a framework of digital scarcity. If you don't recognize bitcoin's value proposition, then you might not understand it very well.
I just started investing in bitcoin last week with my first 10$ investment, quite small but its a start since my salary is small for now, I really want to catch up, but I need clarification on this since I'm.beign bothered about it.
Well, maybe you can continue studying bitcoin and investing at $10 per week, and if you start to become more confident, then you can increase the amount that you invest. You are right that it would not be good to invest into something in which you do not have sufficient confidence, but at least your starting to invest will likely contribute to your being able to have some stake in the game and to potentially pay more attention in terms of learning what you are investing into.
Of course, I agree with you that DCA gives some better assurance that you will just spend in accordance with your cash inflows versus your expenses, so presumptively, if you are able to establish some level of steady cashflow, then you will continue to have money to buy each week or whatever might be the period in which you are applying your DCA buys.
Sorry for my immature question but with regards to lump sums, how does it really work. Does it mean buying in whole or huge investment even if not in whole ?
First of all, I fixed your quote. You should at least try to make sure that you are quoting properly.. or at least somehow identifying which member said the quoted materials (which it was me in this case).
Sometimes the meaning of the terms end up overlapping depending on how the practices are carried out.
I tend to use the lump sum term in the context of buying a bunch at once.
So for example, if I were to be new to bitcoin, and I had already saved up $1,200 that I was prepared to invest into bitcoin, I could just lump sum invest into bitcoin right away with that amount, or I might decide to divide it up into parts.. For example, I could put 3 parts in which $400 is allocated toward buying right away (that would be lump sum) and $400 would be DCA $25 per week over the next 16 weeks, and $400 would be allocated for buying on dips, so maybe I would have buy orders set up to buy $50 every time the BTC price dropped $500, so that would be 8 orders that go down $4k, and so if my first buy order for $50 was set up at around $41,600, then the next one for $50 would be $41,100, the next one would be $40,600 and the buy orders would add up to 8 and so the last one would go down to $38,100.
I gave an example, but you could have all kinds of variations on this depending on your expected cashflow coming in and your expenses, which maybe you might decide to ONLY divide the $1,200 into 2 parts with buying right away (which would be lump sum) with 1/2 of it $600, and the other half for buying on dips, and then you would DCA with your cashflow coming in for at least the next 6 months of $30 per week or whatever might be the amount, so if you are buying $30 per week, after 6 months, you would have invested $780 (26 x 30)... and then your total invested after 6 months would be $1,980.. and of course, you can make all kinds of variations on your plan, which also should include making sure that you have a sufficient and robust emergency fund, as we have also discussed several times in this thread.
