mu_enrico
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August 30, 2019, 05:29:31 AM |
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Bro, could you do the followings: - All in after five or six consecutive losses - Standard martingale after five or six consecutive losses, with 10% of your total balance
I think these would be the best strategy.
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Tytanowy Janusz (OP)
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August 30, 2019, 06:21:11 AM |
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- All in after five or six consecutive losses - Standard martingale after five or six consecutive losses, with 10% of your total balance
This is one strategy or 2? I don't quite understand how it work. Could you explain it a little more clearly?
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Malsetid
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August 30, 2019, 08:32:25 AM |
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- All in after five or six consecutive losses - Standard martingale after five or six consecutive losses, with 10% of your total balance
This is one strategy or 2? I don't quite understand how it work. Could you explain it a little more clearly? He's basically doubling his bets after every loss. And the will go for broke once he's had 6 rolls of bad luck lol. It works for some people but almost not for everyone in the long run. This system worked for me for a short while though when you get drawn deeper into betting, losing everything will be really quick.
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numanoid
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August 30, 2019, 03:49:05 PM |
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He's basically doubling his bets after every loss. And the will go for broke once he's had 6 rolls of bad luck lol
it's not like that. IMO, he said about 2 strategies, first one is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you bet all in/max of your money for 6/7th bet (this is crazy, you can't be sure you will win since we have often seen more than 8 streak losses) And the second is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you will go with 10% from your money which kinda safer than first one.
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carlfebz2
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August 30, 2019, 07:56:37 PM |
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He's basically doubling his bets after every loss. And the will go for broke once he's had 6 rolls of bad luck lol
it's not like that. IMO, he said about 2 strategies, first one is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you bet all in/max of your money for 6/7th bet (this is crazy, you can't be sure you will win since we have often seen more than 8 streak losses) And the second is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you will go with 10% from your money which kinda safer than first one. Going all in or bet all in 6 or 7th bet? Not an assurance thing to hit up as I had tried this in the past when I'm still playing dice on my newbie exploring days. Waiting for some losing streaks then betting big on the next roll presuming that it would be a green.No matter how you tweaked it up We cant really predict on how long would be the losing streak on that time.
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libert19
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August 31, 2019, 03:33:05 AM |
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He's basically doubling his bets after every loss. And the will go for broke once he's had 6 rolls of bad luck lol
it's not like that. IMO, he said about 2 strategies, first one is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you bet all in/max of your money for 6/7th bet (this is crazy, you can't be sure you will win since we have often seen more than 8 streak losses) And the second is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you will go with 10% from your money which kinda safer than first one. Going all in or bet all in 6 or 7th bet? Not an assurance thing to hit up as I had tried this in the past when I'm still playing dice on my newbie exploring days. Waiting for some losing streaks then betting big on the next roll presuming that it would be a green.No matter how you tweaked it up We cant really predict on how long would be the losing streak on that time. Right, thinking like, "I have had 6 losses in a raw so I must be winning the next one" is wrong thinking, every dice roll comes with the same odds, you can't predict what next roll will bring.
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mu_enrico
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August 31, 2019, 03:56:42 AM Last edit: August 31, 2019, 01:01:37 PM by mu_enrico |
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This is one strategy or 2?
Two strategies as explained by @numanoid IMO, he said about 2 strategies, first one is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you bet all in/max of your money for 6/7th bet (this is crazy, you can't be sure you will win since we have often seen more than 8 streak losses) And the second is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you will go with 10% from your money which kinda safer than first one.
Well, this is experiment right? Who knows it will give better results than Edit: removed wrong comment Anything better than the above below results will be the "best strategy" lol PS: make sure you count the correct lose streak ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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Tytanowy Janusz (OP)
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August 31, 2019, 08:57:05 AM |
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cryptovigi found better strategy than regular martingale. It's in link in OP: Its simple martingale with tripling instead of doubling after every loss. || | 1 | || | Martingale v2 | || | xxx | || | xxx | || | triple bet after loss | || |
I've tested in on different data than so I've found old program and run it on new data. Here are results: Limit: 1000000 target: 2000000 How manny tests 100000 Casino lost with 43380 gamblers out of 100000 Average winner spent: 280 hours in casino
Limit: 500 target: 1000 How manny tests 100000 Casino lost with 43565 gamblers out of 100000 Average winner spent: 2 hours in casino
So to find "best strategy" you have be beat those numbers ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I'll code your strategy in free time.
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bones261
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August 31, 2019, 06:03:32 PM |
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I am curious how a betting strategy would work where a person tries to take advantage of win streaks by doubling their bet after an initial win and then going back to 1 unit after a loss. (Just to be clear, I mean to only bet 1 or 2 units. Not keep doubling until you lose.) also, how would this work if you were willing to double and redouble (for a maximum of 4 units) and go back to 1 unit after loss.
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Tytanowy Janusz (OP)
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September 03, 2019, 04:37:15 PM |
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I am curious how a betting strategy would work where a person tries to take advantage of win streaks by doubling their bet after an initial win and then going back to 1 unit after a loss. (Just to be clear, I mean to only bet 1 or 2 units. Not keep doubling until you lose.) also, how would this work if you were willing to double and redouble (for a maximum of 4 units) and go back to 1 unit after loss.
I'm not 100% sure if i understand it correectly: strategy 1 1 win 2 win 2 win 2 win 2 loss 1 loss 1 strategy 2 1 win 2 win 4 win 4 win 4 loss 1 loss 1 Thats what you mean?
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Bardman
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September 03, 2019, 05:39:28 PM |
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Using math you can also prove that some strategies are actually slightly better than others and can in fact even get a bit more house edge percentage in your favor, talking about a pretty small percentage. I believe one sequence of martingale gives you better odds than 1 single bet. For example if you have 1 BTC, it's better to split it in a few smaller amounts and bet using martingale, I don't remember exactly how you had to split it in order to have a better chance.
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bones261
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September 06, 2019, 12:34:53 AM |
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I'm not 100% sure if i understand it correectly: strategy 1 1 win 2 win 2 win 2 win 2 loss 1 loss 1 strategy 2 1 win 2 win 4 win 4 win 4 loss 1 loss 1 Thats what you mean? Yes, this is what I meant for both strategies.
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Tytanowy Janusz (OP)
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September 13, 2019, 10:28:18 AM Last edit: September 13, 2019, 01:40:20 PM by Tytanowy Janusz |
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Yes, this is what I meant for both strategies.
Sorry that I was idle for so long. My second son was born 3 days ago Here are my results. Strategy2: Limit: 500 target: 1000 How manny tests 100000 Casino lost with 4 gamblers out of 100000 Limit: 500 target: 550 How manny tests 100000 Casino lost with 37048 gamblers out of 100000 Limit: 10000 target: 11000 How manny tests 10000 Casino lost with 0 gamblers out of 10000 With regular martingale you are constantly increasing portfolio until sudden death. In your strategy you are bleeding slowly with every bet until there is nothing to bet with. With big portfolios this strategy is very similar to flat betting which is 100% loss strategy. Strategy 1 is even closer to flat betting that's why i've decided to go in another direction. Increasing bet up to 32x. Limit: 500 target: 1000 How manny tests 100000 Casino lost with 23416 gamblers out of 100000 Much better than 4 ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) That proofs that the more aggressive you are the bigger are your odds of winning. Up to the most aggressive strategy (bet all your money on red and double or go home broken)
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bones261
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September 14, 2019, 03:16:11 PM |
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Sorry that I was idle for so long. My second son was born 3 days ago Congratulations on the new addition to your family and thank you for the well put together statistics. so I guess the rule of thumb is to go big or go home.
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Tytanowy Janusz (OP)
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September 15, 2019, 07:41:57 AM Last edit: September 18, 2019, 06:46:34 AM by Tytanowy Janusz |
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Congratulations on the new addition to your family and thank you for the well put together statistics. so I guess the rule of thumb is to go big or go home.
Thank you. Is there anything else i can code for you? For now the best strategy other than single bet was martingale with tripling instead of doubling (much more agressive martingale). Using math you can also prove that some strategies are actually slightly better than others
Yes, but brute force simulation is easier to do and easier to explain to others. I believe one sequence of martingale gives you better odds than 1 single bet. For example if you have 1 BTC, it's better to split it in a few smaller amounts and bet using martingale, I don't remember exactly how you had to split it in order to have a better chance.
Some people believe in flat earth ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Rule is simple. The bigger your trading volume is the more money is sucked by hose edge and the closer you get to statistic distribution. Find your strategy and bring here.
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Muttley
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September 18, 2019, 12:09:32 PM |
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Well, I am testing the following strategy, and I am earning 3% of my total wagered amount. 1 - I select any coin from my bank 2 - Select predicition 3 (96,0 % win chance) 3 - Select total amount and divide it 14 times 4 - Play auto with stop betting after a loss 5 - After this loss, select prediction 51 (48,0% win chance) and manually do a martingale until you get profit 6 - After this winning bet, return to step 1 With this strategy I am getting exact 3% of my total wagered. You can change step 3 to 13 times or 15 times, if you want to risk more or less. This is my stats after more than 113k bets. Note I have 1.03% (3%) profit in more than 50 different coins, except Doge because I did a mistake: https://luckygames.io/user/Muttley3percent/stats/
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Tytanowy Janusz (OP)
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October 03, 2019, 03:59:53 PM |
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Well, I am testing the following strategy, and I am earning 3% of my total wagered amount. 1 - I select any coin from my bank 2 - Select predicition 3 (96,0 % win chance) 3 - Select total amount and divide it 14 times 4 - Play auto with stop betting after a loss 5 - After this loss, select prediction 51 (48,0% win chance) and manually do a martingale until you get profit 6 - After this winning bet, return to step 1 With this strategy I am getting exact 3% of my total wagered. You can change step 3 to 13 times or 15 times, if you want to risk more or less. This is my stats after more than 113k bets. Note I have 1.03% (3%) profit in more than 50 different coins, except Doge because I did a mistake: https://luckygames.io/user/Muttley3percent/stats/Damn I didn't notice your post. I'll code it for you in the next few days but as i see it is based on martingale and will profit as long as you would not hit killing strike doing martingale what was shown to be unprofitable in this tread already. Am i wrong? do a martingale until you get profit What if there won't be profit?
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cabalism13
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October 04, 2019, 03:07:22 AM |
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Does any of these system applies on Mintdice? I'm just playing it automatically LoL, I already killed my FUN. I don't know for sure if such Martingale would be effective on this kind of habit of mine. Any Ideas?
Sorry that I was idle for so long. My second son was born 3 days ago Another man was born, Let me guess, you're currently babysitting right now 🤣 Jk.
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Tytanowy Janusz (OP)
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October 04, 2019, 08:15:42 AM |
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Does any of these system applies on Mintdice? I'm just playing it automatically LoL, I already killed my FUN. I don't know for sure if such Martingale would be effective on this kind of habit of mine.
Any Ideas?
You can apply them all but why? I've prooved that all of those systems has lower odds of winning than placing all your money in single bet. Playing automatically not only kills fun from gambling but also pushes your outcome from gambling closer to statistic distribution what guarantee loss. For now no one was able to present system that works. Some was able to present system that guarantee loss: Some idea: - Martingale with Fibonacci progression 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ... ;
Well i don't have impressive results. Limit: 1000000 target: 2000000 How manny tests 10000 Casino lost with 0 gamblers out of 10000 No one was able to double portfolio while entering casino with 1 000 000 initial bet - with original martingale 27% gamblers beat casino. Sorry that I was idle for so long. My second son was born 3 days ago Another man was born, Let me guess, you're currently babysitting right now 🤣 Jk. This little guy do not need babysitting ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) He only sleeps and eats.
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mu_enrico
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October 04, 2019, 09:06:51 AM |
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Some was able to present system that guarantee loss:
Thanks for the compliment, however Guaranteed loss is an overstatement I think. It depends on how many rolls and your target return. No one was able to double portfolio while entering casino with 1 000 000 initial bet - with original martingale 27% gamblers beat casino.
This result was not telling the whole picture, such as how many of it would get busted (0 balance). Perhaps 73% of "original" martingale users would get home with an empty pocket, while only a few of Fibonacci progression users got busted. Fibonacci progression lowers the risk and obviously lowers the return as well.
By the way, congratulations on your newborn baby! Less gambling, more buying milk! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
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