Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year

[samsonn25]

Examples:

BTC at $232 price:

1TH machine at 1.0 watt/gh efficiency will yield .013 btc at .10 kw/hr and loss at .16  with 3% diff jumps  (machine value $3 max)

1TH machine at  .7 watt/gh  efficiency will yield .37 btc at .10 kw/hr and loss at .16  with 3% diff jumps   (machine value $86 max)

Calculating at the current difficulty, you may want to check your math here...

I used current 43.9 Billion difficulty in my calculations.

The fact cannot be disputed that the difficulty level has risen 47 out of the last 49 jumps.

Over the last 10 jumps the average adjustment is increase of 4.9%, the last 20 jumps averaged 9.2% increase

I only use conservative 3% in my examples.

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[jamesg]

I used current 43.9 Billion difficulty in my calculations.

The fact cannot be disputed that the difficulty level has risen 47 out of the last 49 jumps.

Over the last 10 jumps the average adjustment is increase of 4.9%, the last 20 jumps averaged 9.2% increase

I only use conservative 3% in my examples.

At the current difficulty, 1Th/s makes 0.01144 BTC per day.

[samsonn25]

I used current 43.9 Billion difficulty in my calculations.

The fact cannot be disputed that the difficulty level has risen 47 out of the last 49 jumps.

Over the last 10 jumps the average adjustment is increase of 4.9%, the last 20 jumps averaged 9.2% increase

I only use conservative 3% in my examples.

At the current difficulty, 1Th/s makes 0.01144 BTC per day.

At what efficiency is this asic and what are electricity  costs?

[Korbman]

Calculating at the current difficulty, you may want to check your math here...

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Usually helps in a pinch...

Can't tell if that was a jab at me (for whatever reason), if you were trying to be helpful, or if you misread my post...

Examples:

BTC at $232 price:

1TH machine at 1.0 watt/gh efficiency will yield .013 btc at .10 kw/hr and loss at .16  with 3% diff jumps  (machine value $3 max)

1TH machine at  .7 watt/gh  efficiency will yield .37 btc at .10 kw/hr and loss at .16  with 3% diff jumps   (machine value $86 max)

Calculating at the current difficulty, you may want to check your math here...

I used current 43.9 Billion difficulty in my calculations.

[...]

What I was getting at was that you never stated the period of time used in the calculations (though 1 day, 86400 seconds, was assumed based on the first example), and your yield was a bit off.

Going back to the math part:
First example
1 TH/s, using 1 kWh, will (on average) generate BTC0.01143723 per day at a difficulty of 43,971,662,056, or roughly $2.65 @ $232/BTC. However, it will cost $2.40 (@ $0.10 per kWh) to mine those coins. Net income at this point is $0.25 per TH/s per day.

A few things could happen that would generate a loss in this situation. Either,
1) Difficulty would need to be greater than 48,615,027,051.
2) The price per Bitcoin would need to be less than $209.84.
3) Energy costs would need to be greater than $0.11 per kWh.

Second example
1 TH/s, using 0.7 kWh, will still generate BTC0.01143723 per day at a difficulty of 43,971,662,056, or roughly $2.65 @ $232/BTC. However, since this miner is more efficient, it will only cost $1.68 (@ $0.10 per kWh) to mine those coins. Net income at this point is now $0.97 per TH/s per day.

A few things could happen that would generate a loss in this situation. Either,
1) Difficulty would need to be greater than 69,450,048,235.
2) The price per Bitcoin would need to be less than $146.89.
3) Energy costs would need to be greater than $0.158 per kWh.


Overall, you're right; profitability is getting squeeze pretty hard, and the constant jumps in difficulty, while expected, don't help. It would only take ~5 jumps at 10% to kill off the profitability of 0.7W/Gh miner, and the less efficient 1W/Gh miner is more or less dead for the average user at this point anyway. Thankfully we've already seen a rise in 0.5W/Gh miners, with more efficient ones under development.

[samsonn25]

The best deal right now is probably the s5.

[World]

Burt,could you re-calculate please numbers to BitFury 16nm/0.1 J/GH chip?Thx
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1291890.0;all
 

[Finksy]

Burt,could you re-calculate please numbers to BitFury 16nm/0.1 J/GH chip?Thx
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1291890.0;all
 

I'd agree, once we see the proof that this chip works at the spec they claim it does.  Still no concrete evidence other than statements, or if it will be board level or ATW efficiency.

Just thought I'd try to contribute something.  Your model relies on a fixed 1 W/GHs which we know is not realistic, so I thought I'd try to make a model to predict future chip efficiency using past and current developments of both BitmainTech's and Avalon's chips, as they are 2 of the bigger players that have been around for a while.  Please feel free to interject where you see any of my assumptions as unrealistic:



Both Exponential formulas come out somewhat closely, so I feel it could be useful to predict future technology as far as efficiency goes.  We know there has to be a point of diminishing returns.

Interesting to revisit my post from this long back as an estimate to the S5, S7 and future Bitfury chip efficiency.   

When the S5 was released, x=25 for Jan '15,

11.2e^(-0.118)(25)=0.586 W/GHs
7.0376e^(-0.112)(25)=0.428 W/GHs

When the S7 was released, x=32 for August '15:

11.2e^(-0.118)(32)=0.257 W/GHs
7.0376e^(-0.112)(32)=0.195 W/GHs

Let's say we see Bitfury chips by April '16, or x=40

11.2e^(-0.118)(40)=0.0998 W/GHs
7.0376e^(-0.112)(40)=0.0798 W/GHs

Could be on to something here, first formula seems to hold somewhat true at this time.

[Adrian-x]

Interesting to revisit my post from this long back as an estimate to the S5, S7 and future Bitfury chip efficiency.  

When the S5 was released, x=25 for Jan '15,

11.2e^(-0.118)(25)=0.586 W/GHs
7.0376e^(-0.112)(25)=0.428 W/GHs

When the S7 was released, x=32 for August '15:

11.2e^(-0.118)(32)=0.257 W/GHs
7.0376e^(-0.112)(32)=0.195 W/GHs

Let's say we see Bitfury chips by April '16, or x=40

11.2e^(-0.118)(40)=0.0998 W/GHs
7.0376e^(-0.112)(40)=0.0798 W/GHs

Could be on to something here, first formula seems to hold somewhat true at this time.

That's looking awesome. hopefully Bitfury hits there target and has a retail solution, it aligns with my upgrade cycle.

[World]

Energy Eaten By Bitcoin and what it mean for price by @bitcoin3000
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_owNVdYZlg

I estimate/calculate the market cap-to-TEEBB ratio and graph it over time in order to gain new insights into the historical, current, and future values of bitcoin.

data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kesn0wWxE5NvQUz4QE5h8SVrpNeqNJIHqxUM3cakHaw/edit#gid=0

graph 1: https://plot.ly/~bitcoin3000/235/market-cap-vs-total-energy-eaten-by-bitcoin-with-estimated-mining-efficiency/

graph 2: https://plot.ly/~bitcoin3000/234/market-cap-to-teebb-ratio/

[samsonn25]

Interesting to revisit my post from this long back as an estimate to the S5, S7 and future Bitfury chip efficiency.  

When the S5 was released, x=25 for Jan '15,

11.2e^(-0.118)(25)=0.586 W/GHs
7.0376e^(-0.112)(25)=0.428 W/GHs

When the S7 was released, x=32 for August '15:

11.2e^(-0.118)(32)=0.257 W/GHs
7.0376e^(-0.112)(32)=0.195 W/GHs

Let's say we see Bitfury chips by April '16, or x=40

11.2e^(-0.118)(40)=0.0998 W/GHs
7.0376e^(-0.112)(40)=0.0798 W/GHs

Could be on to something here, first formula seems to hold somewhat true at this time.

That's looking awesome. hopefully Bitfury hits there target and has a retail solution, it aligns with my upgrade cycle.

Bitfury has never been friendly to the retail environment, even when they did share some of the chips they WAY overpriced it.

They already have funding from major investors to have everything to build in the first place, selling to retail is probably extra runs from the chip and wafer orders, or older tech as they are developing the next gen.

[keystroke]

Energy Eaten By Bitcoin and what it mean for price by @bitcoin3000
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_owNVdYZlg

I estimate/calculate the market cap-to-TEEBB ratio and graph it over time in order to gain new insights into the historical, current, and future values of bitcoin.

data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kesn0wWxE5NvQUz4QE5h8SVrpNeqNJIHqxUM3cakHaw/edit#gid=0

graph 1: https://plot.ly/~bitcoin3000/235/market-cap-vs-total-energy-eaten-by-bitcoin-with-estimated-mining-efficiency/

graph 2: https://plot.ly/~bitcoin3000/234/market-cap-to-teebb-ratio/

Very interesting analysis. Have you considered updating your model with more accurate numbers for electricity cost?

[World]

Very interesting analysis. Have you considered updating your model with more accurate numbers for electricity cost?

I am not the author.
Alex did it https://twitter.com/bitcoin3000