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Author Topic: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year  (Read 18793 times)
bcmine
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April 13, 2014, 06:16:33 PM
 #21

Over the last year the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days.

Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get:

Code:
                                Hash Rate   Power     Energy          Cost         Cost
     Date         Difficulty        TH/s      MW        MWh      $/Period        $/BTC
---------  -----------------  ----------  ------  ---------  ------------   ----------
24-Mar-14      5,266,766,872      37,702      38     10,293    $1,029,253       $20.42
04-Apr-14      6,526,449,656      46,719      47     12,754    $1,275,425       $25.31
16-Apr-14      8,087,417,983      57,893      58     15,805    $1,580,476       $31.36
27-Apr-14     10,021,732,041      71,739      72     19,585    $1,958,487       $38.86
08-May-14     12,418,687,065      88,898      89     24,269    $2,426,909       $48.15
20-May-14     15,388,935,546     110,160     110     30,074    $3,007,367       $59.67
31-May-14     19,069,595,359     136,508     137     37,267    $3,726,656       $73.94
12-Jun-14     23,630,579,651     169,157     169     46,180    $4,617,982       $91.63
23-Jun-14     29,282,440,667     209,615     210     57,225    $5,722,492      $113.54
04-Jul-14     36,286,089,639     259,750     260     70,912    $7,091,173      $140.70
16-Jul-14     44,964,841,429     321,876     322     87,872    $8,787,209      $174.35
27-Jul-14     55,719,339,970     398,861     399    108,889   $10,888,896      $216.05
07-Aug-14     69,046,053,494     494,258     494    134,933   $13,493,256      $267.72
19-Aug-14     85,560,193,384     612,473     612    167,205   $16,720,515      $331.76
30-Aug-14    106,024,114,653     758,962     759    207,197   $20,719,656      $411.10
11-Sep-14    131,382,509,124     940,487     940    256,753   $25,675,295      $509.43
22-Sep-14    162,806,015,974   1,165,429   1,165    318,162   $31,816,202      $631.27
03-Oct-14    201,745,262,850   1,444,171   1,444    394,259   $39,425,865      $782.26
15-Oct-14    249,997,832,322   1,789,581   1,790    488,556   $48,855,575      $969.36
26-Oct-14    309,791,245,073   2,217,606   2,218    605,406   $60,540,642    $1,201.20
06-Nov-14    383,885,790,658   2,748,003   2,748    750,205   $75,020,494    $1,488.50
18-Nov-14    475,701,952,889   3,405,259   3,405    929,636   $92,963,576    $1,844.52
29-Nov-14    589,478,312,272   4,219,715   4,220  1,151,982  $115,198,206    $2,285.68
11-Dec-14    730,467,214,878   5,228,968   5,229  1,427,508  $142,750,821    $2,832.36
22-Dec-14    905,177,240,458   6,479,610   6,480  1,768,934  $176,893,352    $3,509.79
02-Jan-15  1,121,673,663,040   8,029,375   8,029  2,192,019  $219,201,947    $4,349.24
14-Jan-15  1,389,950,774,416   9,949,807   9,950  2,716,297  $271,629,732    $5,389.48
25-Jan-15  1,722,393,258,358  12,329,559  12,330  3,365,970  $336,596,970    $6,678.51
05-Feb-15  2,134,347,914,361  15,278,491  15,278  4,171,028  $417,102,794    $8,275.85
17-Feb-15  2,644,832,123,808  18,932,735  18,933  5,168,637  $516,863,657   $10,255.23
28-Feb-15  3,277,411,764,061  23,460,985  23,461  6,404,849  $640,484,897   $12,708.03
12-Mar-15  4,061,289,098,283  29,072,283  29,072  7,936,733  $793,673,336   $15,747.49

What technology jump should allow the xbt to raise with 20% every month? Development of every technology step needs like one year. From 110nm In april 2013 over 55 and 28nm the 20 in June 2014. 14 nm ?? Intel having problems and is not the right deal for 2014.

Numbers are highly unrealistic. Fullstop
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April 13, 2014, 06:31:42 PM
 #22

Over the last year the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days.

Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get:

Code:
                                Hash Rate   Power     Energy          Cost         Cost
     Date         Difficulty        TH/s      MW        MWh      $/Period        $/BTC
---------  -----------------  ----------  ------  ---------  ------------   ----------
24-Mar-14      5,266,766,872      37,702      38     10,293    $1,029,253       $20.42
04-Apr-14      6,526,449,656      46,719      47     12,754    $1,275,425       $25.31
16-Apr-14      8,087,417,983      57,893      58     15,805    $1,580,476       $31.36
27-Apr-14     10,021,732,041      71,739      72     19,585    $1,958,487       $38.86
08-May-14     12,418,687,065      88,898      89     24,269    $2,426,909       $48.15
20-May-14     15,388,935,546     110,160     110     30,074    $3,007,367       $59.67
31-May-14     19,069,595,359     136,508     137     37,267    $3,726,656       $73.94
12-Jun-14     23,630,579,651     169,157     169     46,180    $4,617,982       $91.63
23-Jun-14     29,282,440,667     209,615     210     57,225    $5,722,492      $113.54
04-Jul-14     36,286,089,639     259,750     260     70,912    $7,091,173      $140.70
16-Jul-14     44,964,841,429     321,876     322     87,872    $8,787,209      $174.35
27-Jul-14     55,719,339,970     398,861     399    108,889   $10,888,896      $216.05
07-Aug-14     69,046,053,494     494,258     494    134,933   $13,493,256      $267.72
19-Aug-14     85,560,193,384     612,473     612    167,205   $16,720,515      $331.76
30-Aug-14    106,024,114,653     758,962     759    207,197   $20,719,656      $411.10
11-Sep-14    131,382,509,124     940,487     940    256,753   $25,675,295      $509.43
22-Sep-14    162,806,015,974   1,165,429   1,165    318,162   $31,816,202      $631.27
03-Oct-14    201,745,262,850   1,444,171   1,444    394,259   $39,425,865      $782.26
15-Oct-14    249,997,832,322   1,789,581   1,790    488,556   $48,855,575      $969.36
26-Oct-14    309,791,245,073   2,217,606   2,218    605,406   $60,540,642    $1,201.20
06-Nov-14    383,885,790,658   2,748,003   2,748    750,205   $75,020,494    $1,488.50
18-Nov-14    475,701,952,889   3,405,259   3,405    929,636   $92,963,576    $1,844.52
29-Nov-14    589,478,312,272   4,219,715   4,220  1,151,982  $115,198,206    $2,285.68
11-Dec-14    730,467,214,878   5,228,968   5,229  1,427,508  $142,750,821    $2,832.36
22-Dec-14    905,177,240,458   6,479,610   6,480  1,768,934  $176,893,352    $3,509.79
02-Jan-15  1,121,673,663,040   8,029,375   8,029  2,192,019  $219,201,947    $4,349.24
14-Jan-15  1,389,950,774,416   9,949,807   9,950  2,716,297  $271,629,732    $5,389.48
25-Jan-15  1,722,393,258,358  12,329,559  12,330  3,365,970  $336,596,970    $6,678.51
05-Feb-15  2,134,347,914,361  15,278,491  15,278  4,171,028  $417,102,794    $8,275.85
17-Feb-15  2,644,832,123,808  18,932,735  18,933  5,168,637  $516,863,657   $10,255.23
28-Feb-15  3,277,411,764,061  23,460,985  23,461  6,404,849  $640,484,897   $12,708.03
12-Mar-15  4,061,289,098,283  29,072,283  29,072  7,936,733  $793,673,336   $15,747.49

What technology jump should allow the xbt to raise with 20% every month? Development of every technology step needs like one year. From 110nm In april 2013 over 55 and 28nm the 20 in June 2014. 14 nm ?? Intel having problems and is not the right deal for 2014.

Numbers are highly unrealistic. Fullstop

Technology could stop now at 55 to 28 nm. But if they are shipping out 20 to 100k of machines a month thats a lot of hashrate.
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April 14, 2014, 06:49:57 AM
 #23

Numbers are highly unrealistic. Fullstop
I am glad you understand my point.

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April 15, 2014, 08:30:19 AM
 #24

Humans are not rational beings either.

Many will keep mining at a loss with the hope btc will reach new heights.
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April 19, 2014, 12:37:07 PM
 #25

The hashrate has been rising, just not as quickly as originally estimated. Currently, 57.6 PH/s and seems to be adding about 1 PH/s a day. In 10 days or so, when the next diff jump comes, we will have about 68 PH/s, about 15% increase not 20 %.
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May 19, 2014, 02:55:02 AM
Last edit: May 19, 2014, 03:09:57 AM by Bicknellski
 #26

There really is nothing new to report.  The difficulty continues to climb at about the same rate and the price continues to go down.  This wil not last.  One of these things MUST give.  Either the price needs to go up or the difficulty must stop going up.  Eventually.

I will redo the calculations in a month or two.

Time yet for recalculation?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u92O8LSkezY

I am wondering how Mining can be part and parcel of the Sustainocene.

Currently the world uses 16 TW in 2012 and will need an additional 16 TW by 2050. How can mining become sustainable when the direction of mining is to ever larger mining centers?

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July 01, 2014, 08:04:45 PM
 #27

UPDATE!!!

This thread is just a quick attempt to project the minimum cost per BTC over the next year assuming the growth in the hash rate next year matches the growth in the hash rate over the last year.

tl;dr:  either the growth in the hash rate must slow down, the power consumption must go down, or the price of BTC must go up, a lot.

Using the following conversion factors, constants and assumptions:

Code:
GH/s per Diff   0.007158388055
Blocks/Period   2016         
BTC/Period      50400         
Watts per GH/s  1 (assumed constant for the next year - it may go down)             
USD/kWh         $0.10         

In other words assuming everyone in the network pays $0.10 per kWh and everyone has miners that burn 1 W per GH/s (1 J/GH) then we can calculate the average production cost for each BTC over the last year as follows:

Code:
                                          Hash Rate    Power      Energy        Cost    Cost
     Date      Difficulty   Delta Days         GH/s       kW         kWh    $/Period   $/BTC
---------  --------------  ------ ----  -----------  -------  ----------  ----------  ------
29-Jun-13      21,335,329                   152,727      153
11-Jul-13      26,162,876  22.63%   12      187,284      187      53,938      $5,394   $0.11
22-Jul-13      31,256,961  19.47%   11      223,749      224      59,070      $5,907   $0.12
03-Aug-13      37,392,766  19.63%   12      267,672      268      77,090      $7,709   $0.15
13-Aug-13      50,810,339  35.88%   10      363,720      364      87,293      $8,729   $0.17
24-Aug-13      65,750,060  29.40%   11      470,664      471     124,255     $12,426   $0.25
04-Sep-13      86,933,018  32.22%   11      622,300      622     164,287     $16,429   $0.33
14-Sep-13     112,628,549  29.56%   10      806,239      806     193,497     $19,350   $0.38
25-Sep-13     148,819,200  32.13%   11    1,065,306    1,065     281,241     $28,124   $0.56
06-Oct-13     189,281,249  27.19%   11    1,354,949    1,355     357,706     $35,771   $0.71
16-Oct-13     267,731,249  41.45%   10    1,916,524    1,917     459,966     $45,997   $0.91
26-Oct-13     390,928,788  46.02%   10    2,798,420    2,798     671,621     $67,162   $1.33
05-Nov-13     510,929,738  30.70%   10    3,657,433    3,657     877,784     $87,778   $1.74
17-Nov-13     609,482,680  19.29%   12    4,362,914    4,363   1,256,519    $125,652   $2.49
29-Nov-13     707,408,283  16.07%   12    5,063,903    5,064   1,458,404    $145,840   $2.89
10-Dec-13     908,350,862  28.41%   11    6,502,328    6,502   1,716,615    $171,661   $3.41
21-Dec-13   1,180,923,195  30.01%   11    8,453,506    8,454   2,231,726    $223,173   $4.43
02-Jan-14   1,418,481,395  20.12%   12   10,154,040   10,154   2,924,364    $292,436   $5.80
13-Jan-14   1,789,546,951  26.16%   11   12,810,272   12,810   3,381,912    $338,191   $6.71
24-Jan-14   2,193,847,870  22.59%   11   15,704,414   15,704   4,145,965    $414,597   $8.23
05-Feb-14   2,621,404,453  19.49%   12   18,765,030   18,765   5,404,329    $540,433  $10.72
17-Feb-14   3,129,573,175  19.39%   12   22,402,699   22,403   6,451,977    $645,198  $12.80
28-Feb-14   3,815,723,799  21.92%   11   27,314,432   27,314   7,211,010    $721,101  $14.31
13-Mar-14   4,250,217,920  11.39%   13   30,424,709   30,425   9,492,509    $949,251  $18.83
24-Mar-14   5,006,860,589  17.80%   11   35,841,051   35,841   9,462,037    $946,204  $18.77
05-Apr-14   6,119,726,089  22.23%   12   43,807,374   43,807  12,616,524  $1,261,652  $25.03
17-Apr-14   6,978,842,650  14.04%   12   49,957,264   49,957  14,387,692  $1,438,769  $28.55
29-Apr-14   8,000,872,136  14.64%   12   57,273,348   57,273  16,494,724  $1,649,472  $32.73
12-May-14   8,853,416,309  10.66%   13   63,376,190   63,376  19,773,371  $1,977,337  $39.23
24-May-14  10,455,720,138  18.10%   12   74,846,102   74,846  21,555,677  $2,155,568  $42.77
05-Jun-14  11,756,551,917  12.44%   12   84,157,961   84,158  24,237,493  $2,423,749  $48.09
18-Jun-14  13,462,580,115  14.51%   13   96,370,373   96,370  30,067,556  $3,006,756  $59.66
29-Jun-14  16,818,461,371  24.93%   11  120,393,073  120,393  31,783,771  $3,178,377  $63.06

Continued in next post...

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July 01, 2014, 08:05:06 PM
Last edit: July 01, 2014, 08:30:42 PM by BurtW
 #28

When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days.

Recalculating over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it is 23.45% and 11.41 days.


Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get:

Code:
                                 Hash Rate    Power      Energy            Cost         Cost
     Date          Difficulty         TH/s       MW         MWh        $/Period        $/BTC
---------  ------------------  -----------  -------  ----------  --------------   ----------
10-Jul-14      20,762,587,053      148,627      149      40,687      $4,068,655       $80.73
21-Jul-14      25,631,656,286      183,481      183      50,228      $5,022,802       $99.66
02-Aug-14      31,642,579,140      226,510      227      62,007      $6,200,707      $123.03
13-Aug-14      39,063,133,629      279,629      280      76,548      $7,654,846      $151.88
25-Aug-14      48,223,894,840      345,205      345      94,500      $9,449,997      $187.50
05-Sep-14      59,532,961,579      426,160      426     116,661     $11,666,131      $231.47
16-Sep-14      73,494,136,594      526,100      526     144,020     $14,401,975      $285.75
28-Sep-14      90,729,370,258      649,476      649     177,794     $17,779,407      $352.77
09-Oct-14     112,006,467,575      801,786      802     219,489     $21,948,885      $435.49
21-Oct-14     138,273,292,794      989,814      990     270,962     $27,096,155      $537.62
01-Nov-14     170,699,995,402    1,221,937    1,222     334,505     $33,450,520      $663.70
12-Nov-14     210,731,138,613    1,508,495    1,508     412,951     $41,295,058      $819.35
24-Nov-14     260,150,052,591    1,862,255    1,862     509,792     $50,979,231    $1,011.49
05-Dec-14     321,158,279,258    2,298,976    2,299     629,345     $62,934,457    $1,248.70
17-Dec-14     396,473,647,839    2,838,112    2,838     776,933     $77,693,322    $1,541.53
28-Dec-14     489,451,350,262    3,503,683    3,504     959,133     $95,913,314    $1,903.04
08-Jan-15     604,233,410,162    4,325,337    4,325   1,184,061    $118,406,107    $2,349.33
20-Jan-15     745,933,204,108    5,339,679    5,340   1,461,737    $146,173,722    $2,900.27
31-Jan-15     920,863,255,215    6,591,897    6,592   1,804,532    $180,453,167    $3,580.42
12-Feb-15   1,136,816,447,014    8,137,773    8,138   2,227,715    $222,771,543    $4,420.07
23-Feb-15   1,403,413,185,274   10,046,176   10,046   2,750,141    $275,014,073    $5,456.63
06-Mar-15   1,732,529,973,307   12,402,122   12,402   3,395,081    $339,508,086    $6,736.27
18-Mar-15   2,138,828,493,208   15,310,564   15,311   4,191,267    $419,126,699    $8,316.01
29-Mar-15   2,640,408,762,814   18,901,071   18,901   5,174,168    $517,416,806   $10,266.21
10-Apr-15   3,259,615,465,609   23,333,592   23,334   6,387,571    $638,757,092   $12,673.75
21-Apr-15   4,024,033,374,406   28,805,592   28,806   7,885,531    $788,553,093   $15,645.89
02-May-15   4,967,716,213,515   35,560,840   35,561   9,734,780    $973,478,006   $19,315.04
14-May-15   6,132,703,703,449   43,900,273   43,900  12,017,700  $1,201,769,972   $23,844.64
25-May-15   7,570,894,370,329   54,195,400   54,195  14,835,991  $1,483,599,070   $29,436.49
06-Jun-15   9,346,357,550,986   66,904,854   66,905  18,315,204  $1,831,520,385   $36,339.69
17-Jun-15  11,538,187,590,255   82,594,824   82,595  22,610,333  $2,261,033,313   $44,861.77
29-Jun-15  14,244,027,380,899  101,964,275  101,964  27,912,720  $2,791,272,041   $55,382.38

In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before November 1

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July 01, 2014, 08:34:50 PM
 #29

I will redo this calculation in another 3 months.

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July 01, 2014, 09:17:52 PM
 #30

Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible!
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July 01, 2014, 10:09:11 PM
 #31

Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible!
I am curious about your statement.  How much more room do you think there is in this number?  At 28nm everyone is getting about 0.8 J/GH.  Going from 55nm to 28nm only reduced the consumption from 0.9 J/GH to 0.8 J/GH.  Lets say we can make 18nm chips.  The best case I would see is 0.5 J/GH and it would probably be higher.

In other words I don't see any way to get another order of magnitude change in this number - only smaller incremental improvements at this point.

Running the numbers at 0.5 J/GH is not a whole lot different than 0.8 J/GH and 0.5 J/GH may be a total pipe dream.

Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
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July 01, 2014, 10:39:17 PM
 #32

Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible!
I am curious about your statement.  How much more room do you think there is in this number?  At 28nm everyone is getting about 0.8 J/GH.  Going from 55nm to 28nm only reduced the consumption from 0.9 J/GH to 0.8 J/GH.  Lets say we can make 18nm chips.  The best case I would see is 0.5 J/GH and it would probably be higher.

In other words I don't see any way to get another order of magnitude change in this number - only smaller incremental improvements at this point.

Running the numbers at 0.5 J/GH is not a whole lot different than 0.8 J/GH and 0.5 J/GH may be a total pipe dream.


so lets say in 6 months the network drops to .5 J/GH   and the that is close to the brick wall. what would you predict price on JAN.1 2015 ?


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July 01, 2014, 10:46:49 PM
 #33

Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible!
I am curious about your statement.  How much more room do you think there is in this number?  At 28nm everyone is getting about 0.8 J/GH.  Going from 55nm to 28nm only reduced the consumption from 0.9 J/GH to 0.8 J/GH.  Lets say we can make 18nm chips.  The best case I would see is 0.5 J/GH and it would probably be higher.

In other words I don't see any way to get another order of magnitude change in this number - only smaller incremental improvements at this point.

Running the numbers at 0.5 J/GH is not a whole lot different than 0.8 J/GH and 0.5 J/GH may be a total pipe dream.

I believe half a joule is not unattainable for this year. 16nm is most companies' current focus, and some have designs underway for 14 and 10 (these are still 1+ years out, but it is something to note).

Running some quick numbers though, difficulty will increase at the same rate if not even higher. Taking all of this into account I firmly believe we will be paying over $5000 for a coin in one year.
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July 01, 2014, 10:51:50 PM
 #34

Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible!
I am curious about your statement.  How much more room do you think there is in this number?  At 28nm everyone is getting about 0.8 J/GH.  Going from 55nm to 28nm only reduced the consumption from 0.9 J/GH to 0.8 J/GH.  Lets say we can make 18nm chips.  The best case I would see is 0.5 J/GH and it would probably be higher.

In other words I don't see any way to get another order of magnitude change in this number - only smaller incremental improvements at this point.

Running the numbers at 0.5 J/GH is not a whole lot different than 0.8 J/GH and 0.5 J/GH may be a total pipe dream.


so lets say in 6 months the network drops to .5 J/GH   and the that is close to the brick wall. what would you predict price on JAN.1 2015 ?


Since I used 1 J/GH you just divide all the posted energy and cost numbers by 2 if you want to assume 0.5 J/GH.  So about $1,174.66
 per BTC.


Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
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July 01, 2014, 11:51:34 PM
 #35

Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible!
I am curious about your statement.  How much more room do you think there is in this number?  At 28nm everyone is getting about 0.8 J/GH.  Going from 55nm to 28nm only reduced the consumption from 0.9 J/GH to 0.8 J/GH.  Lets say we can make 18nm chips.  The best case I would see is 0.5 J/GH and it would probably be higher.

In other words I don't see any way to get another order of magnitude change in this number - only smaller incremental improvements at this point.

Running the numbers at 0.5 J/GH is not a whole lot different than 0.8 J/GH and 0.5 J/GH may be a total pipe dream.


so lets say in 6 months the network drops to .5 J/GH   and the that is close to the brick wall. what would you predict price on JAN.1 2015 ?


Since I used 1 J/GH you just divide all the posted energy and cost numbers by 2 if you want to assume 0.5 J/GH.  So about $1,174.66
 per BTC.


  Thanks for the info.  For the sake of argument lets say .5J /GH  and   If coins halved to 12.5 per block on Jan 1 2015 (I know they do not)  you would use $2,549.32   correct?


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July 02, 2014, 12:11:11 AM
 #36

Yes, about that...  I get 1174.66 * 2 = 2,349.33

BTW Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-12 00:40:37 UTC (110 weeks, 2 days, 4 hours, 30 minutes)

But it will probably pull in even more.

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July 03, 2014, 06:49:02 AM
 #37

And this is why home users except in cheap electricity areas will basically be subsidizing the network, there's no way most people in "green" Europe can mine at $0.10.  All of California is 2x to 4 that right now.
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July 03, 2014, 07:17:48 AM
 #38

Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible!

More efficient miners can be made, but at what cost?

For example if it cost a manufacturer $700 to make a 1TH miner at .7watts/gh efficiency today

and it only mines 1 btc lifetime,

how many people would buy it over $840

assuming the manufacturer only wanted to make a 20% markup.

It already seems some farms are shutting down because the miners can not be bought at prices that can justify the cost of the machines versus the bitcoins they can mine in their lifetime, so they are buying coins instead or just stopping the mining and capital investment.

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July 04, 2014, 03:01:27 PM
Last edit: July 04, 2014, 03:12:07 PM by philipma1957
 #39

Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible!

More efficient miners can be made, but at what cost?

For example if it cost a manufacturer $700 to make a 1TH miner at .7watts/gh efficiency today

and it only mines 1 btc lifetime,

how many people would buy it over $840

assuming the manufacturer only wanted to make a 20% markup.

It already seems some farms are shutting down because the miners can not be bought at prices that can justify the cost of the machines versus the bitcoins they can mine in their lifetime, so they are buying coins instead or just stopping the mining and capital investment.



small miners with spot setups could make out well.

  anyone own a beef jerky business ?  

 any one know of a food dehydrator company that is look to sell its product?

here is a great food dehydrator

http://www.lemproducts.com/product/refurbished-stainless-steel-dehydrator/refurbished-products

it uses 800 watts of power looks like it is a match for a pair of s-3's


this is a good example of product synergy.



better yet here is a kiln company  for drying wood.   a huge business chance   right here right now.

 Just saying   someone here in the usa dealing s-3s  should talk with this company.  they do electric heated kilns.

http://www.novadrykiln.com/pdfs/NDK_timbertike.pdf

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September 02, 2014, 01:37:44 AM
 #40

Hey BurtW,

Maybe time for an update? Smiley

-Chris
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