Halving, who's closest with actual Nrs TAKE A CHANCE on the LIST !!!

[KTChampions]

Participants list GL

3101-3150          Yaplatu
3151-3200          KTChampions *
~

I am very surprised that someone tuned in was more bearish than me 
I would like to clarify - if the price is significantly lower than 3000 (it is unlikely, but still), then Yaplatu wins?

Based on the conditions in the first post, it turns out that this is so:

~
I would like to award a winning price of 0.125BTC to the person that gets me the closest price of BTC at April 1st exactly measured at 22.00h CET
~

[1714120515]

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[1714120515]

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[1714120515]

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[GazetaBitcoin]

I think he will win, no matter if BTC would be 2800$ or 1$. After all, his prediction would be the closest one.

[KTChampions]

I think he will win, no matter if BTC would be 2800$ or 1$. After all, his prediction would be the closest one.

It seems to me more fair to give a reward to a participant who has precisely indicated the range.
In case this did not happen, the prize pool can be transferred to the next round of the game.
This is just my opinion, I think El duderino_ has the right to do as it seems right to him.

[GazetaBitcoin]

Did you read the OP? The prize is for closest prediction, not for the precise one.

I would like to award a winning price of 0.125BTC to the person that gets me the closest price of BTC at April 1st exactly measured at 22.00h CET]

Besides, what "next round" are you talking about? OP didn't state anything about a "next round"...

[KTChampions]

Did you read the OP? The prize is for closest prediction, not for the precise one.

I would like to award a winning price of 0.125BTC to the person that gets me the closest price of BTC at April 1st exactly measured at 22.00h CET]

Besides, what "next round" are you talking about? OP didn't state anything about a "next round"...

I read the first message and express my thoughts about it. Is it ok for you? 
Speaking about the next round, I meant that if the prize is not won, then OP can make another game or keep the prize for himself. In any case, this is his decision, I am only interested in his opinion.

[buwaytress]

I am very surprised that someone tuned in was more bearish than me  
I would like to clarify - if the price is significantly lower than 3000 (it is unlikely, but still), then Yaplatu wins?

Always going to be someone more bearish than you, and price doesn't necessarily reflect that. I mean if dare-I-say-his-name Schiff played this game, he's probably make a guess higher than that but long term zero.

And yeah, Yaplatu would deserve to win... for daring to go so low (even if I'm sure he's long term moon;) ).

I'm referring to the service I created - https://bct-quote-notifier.herokuapp.com/

Coding is pretty fun, you can automate things in your daily life and work and it can just be a great hobby, since it always feels very rewarding when you write some code and run it.

Off topic but I tried it out right now. Added 2 instances of my forum username so not sure if it'll work but my nonsense name here isn't easy to spell out in full (though neither is yours haha) in case people don't use quote.

[buwaytress]

Anyone else liking this 9k consolidation going on? I thought the bears might have a chance yesterday but they couldn't seem to tap on the momentum.

Things really looking good for those in the 5-digit range, though I'm sure if you asked jojo, he/she would probably tag on a couple more thousand. I know I certainly would

P.S. @hatshepsut93 -- the code actually works really well. Even notifies me when I open the browser on a new day. Very nice!

[dragonvslinux]

Anyone else liking this 9k consolidation going on? I thought the bears might have a chance yesterday but they couldn't seem to tap on the momentum.

Yes and no. The lack of follow through from the bearish Daily close yesterday makes me more short-term neutral, but not quite bullish again yet as we consolidate at the lows of the range. For me, the Week really needs to close above $9,420, otherwise I'd be far from surprised to see price drop back down to $6K-7K range.

Thought I'd share these two charts from September & October 2019, notice the similarity with 2012 here. Not on time-scale, but based on % correction and direction:



The below might look like a handful of random extrapolations at the time, but the entire point was to see what 2020 looks like in comparison to other years.



Look how similarly the fractal of 2012 has played out; obviously it didn't go as low (less volatility these days), but the the lows lineup with a scary amount of accuracy (the extrapolation is time proportionate btw). A re-extrapolation in % proportion would imply mid $7K levels totally possible. Of course you can believe that price history won't repeat itself, but bare in mind it already has with precision in the very recent past. You can also scroll up to see my bullish analysis, I'm not a total bear here, just short-term neutral, probably until end of the week.

[STT]

he's probably make a guess higher than that but long term zero

Schiff and a few others have said BTC years into the future is worth hundreds because its uniquely useful to some, maybe they go onto say those people are only criminals and so on but they seem to be contradicting themselves or being ignorant in their judgement.   If they also predict gold may alter by 1000% why wouldnt that hundreds also possibly turn out to be thousands and still within their bearish prediction, irrational markets etc.
   Disruptive technology, a sector never seen before and sure you dont like it but who liked computers 40 years ago they were annoying and a pain to use and very expensive yet they developed and they found utility, it was foolish to be negative on something changing so fast.    So if you hate BTC but you find it has a unique use and believe this will go for years, the conclusion shouldnt be to short it really.   To his credit or other bears on BTC I dont think they did short because they also hate FIAT generally so as TSLA shorts have found, the price is potentially infinite in a loose money atmosphere.    
   If we were living in a sensible world I reckon price history would only have ever been in the hundreds and we'd be happy about it.  TSLA would be 20x its earnings and people still hyped, but we're on a magical mystery tour so who knows what we'll see in total.

Halvening isnt in the price, its not hyped enough that'll happen closer to the news, so time as a factor and population cross section is a factor and eventually it gets saturated, over done I guess.  I can think we are flat on the year generally but it can rise alot within that range and still be not be hype about it.   I think 2021 or might even be later, thats when a bigger move happens.   It does depend on other factors, external world events imo could be increasingly relevant over protocol adjustment.

[El duderino_]

Anyone else liking this 9k consolidation going on? I thought the bears might have a chance yesterday but they couldn't seem to tap on the momentum.

Things really looking good for those in the 5-digit range, though I'm sure if you asked jojo, he/she would probably tag on a couple more thousand. I know I certainly would

P.S. @hatshepsut93 -- the code actually works really well. Even notifies me when I open the browser on a new day. Very nice!

Hey, yeah me liking it as well.... let’s hope the momentum keep building up and a 5-dig-ranger get it

[El duderino_]

Anyone else liking this 9k consolidation going on? I thought the bears might have a chance yesterday but they couldn't seem to tap on the momentum.

Yes and no. The lack of follow through from the bearish Daily close yesterday makes me more short-term neutral, but not quite bullish again yet as we consolidate at the lows of the range. For me, the Week really needs to close above $9,420, otherwise I'd be far from surprised to see price drop back down to $6K-7K range.

Thought I'd share these two charts from September & October 2019, notice the similarity with 2012 here. Not on time-scale, but based on % correction and direction:



The below might look like a handful of random extrapolations at the time, but the entire point was to see what 2020 looks like in comparison to other years.



Look how similarly the fractal of 2012 has played out; obviously it didn't go as low (less volatility these days), but the the lows lineup with a scary amount of accuracy (the extrapolation is time proportionate btw). A re-extrapolation in % proportion would imply mid $7K levels totally possible. Of course you can believe that price history won't repeat itself, but bare in mind it already has with precision in the very recent past. You can also scroll up to see my bullish analysis, I'm not a total bear here, just short-term neutral, probably until end of the week.

I do think your graphs and post are interesting, I don’t see you as only a bear, just a guy with own reasoning, sharing them and working on his own BTC-story, as we all should do.
We can I mean must read and explore what other are writing as it’s a whole learning process where nobody has answers on, the beautiful part imo...
I do read a lot, not always understand everything, obviously.
But my main strategy and approach will always be to DCA and not to trade at all (just personal approach)

Then I do believe and think history will not keep repeating itself, as BTC is becoming way more known and way more appreciated, way more needed for tons of people, way more studied, way more applications, endless things are here to see a way more upside for many new people.... the ones that where not interested few years back, cause they don’t saw any value on there RL, probably cause of more development and building on BTC those guys might see some stuff and be like, yeah this is something for me, short said I always believe there will be a continuation of user increase as there will be a continuation of OG-HODLers trying to get there hands on more....
That why I do believe in some parabolic moments, only time will tell when.

[dragonvslinux]

I do think your graphs and post are interesting, I don’t see you as only a bear, just a guy with own reasoning, sharing them and working on his own BTC-story, as we all should do.

Thanks and well noted, I'm definitely not just a bear. I've been dollar cost averaging for past 2.5 months while hodling dip buying from the past 2 years   Trading is just trading, it's a different idea based on short-term technicals than investing in the fundamentals of something. My DCA is fundamental based (6 months leading upto the halving, with intent to continue afterwards), nothing to do with price, it's time-based. That said, I also like increasing my sats with trading using a small % of my holdings, whether it be shorting BTC or longing alts.

We can I mean must read and explore what other are writing as it’s a whole learning process where nobody has answers on, the beautiful part imo...
I do read a lot, not always understand everything, obviously.
But my main strategy and approach will always be to DCA and not to trade at all (just personal approach)

While I think it's healthy to read and explore other people's ideas and opinions, especially those that are different from your own, I don't think it's a requirement to be fair. Many Bitcoin investors have happily ignored TA for the past 10 years, instead focusing on the fundamentals, and arguably done a lot better than some of the best swing traders. Hence why my trading account is now only a minority of my holdings, as opposed to the majority like it used to be.

Then I do believe and think history will not keep repeating itself, as BTC is becoming way more known and way more appreciated, way more needed for tons of people, way more studied, way more applications, endless things are here to see a way more upside for many new people.... the ones that where not interested few years back, cause they don’t saw any value on there RL, probably cause of more development and building on BTC those guys might see some stuff and be like, yeah this is something for me, short said I always believe there will be a continuation of user increase as there will be a continuation of OG-HODLers trying to get there hands on more....
That why I do believe in some parabolic moments, only time will tell when.

I hear you, and largely agree with this sentiment. The structure of the bear market + mini-bull & mini-bear is a completely new structure that Bitcoin has never seen before. At the same time and because of this, this open's the doors for a lot more possibilities because these type of long-term prices movements haven't been seen before to compare with.

With enough different theories from late last year, most have either completed or eventually became irrelevant/inaccurate, however these two that (non-coincidentally in my opinion) are based on 2012 are the only ones to remain relevant after 4-5 months, so I find it hard to ignore until invalidated and will remain in the back of my mind until then. Sometimes, I share these things to remind myself, it's not just about wanting to share it to hear others opinions.

[buwaytress]

@dragonsvlinux + Duderino: fellow DCA-ers unite! It wasn't actually my chosen "strategy" at all, but past few years how things turned out and for a long time now earning only in crypto so by circumstance I get as much bitcoin as it's worth in dollars every month or so. I stopped making actual calculations about whether I lost or made more in $ but I do know for sure if I tried to trade, I'd lose often and big.

@dragonsvlinux yeah absolutely even though I'd like for 10k plus halving etc, I'm actually prepared for a much longer time to see those happen sustainably. I like your comparison but as you say yourself, this territory is not the 2012 territory with very different influencing factors. All the same, even in 2018 I was prepared to wait way longer than 2020 for the next parabola, but for my brain, being above 200 MA this long and at this current volume is something a bit difficult to ignore!

[Questat]

Whooah.. we will touch $10,000 soon,.. just keep that movement until the halving... once bitcoin stays $10,000 as its major support, those who predicted $10,000 up has a chance to we.. my prediction by the way is "12551-12600".. I'm excited. EVERYONE PREPARE FOR THE BULL RUN!

[El duderino_]

^^^ will read you guys later, just dripping by with a small question for those reading and participating this thread

Those with lower prices 4.5——-7K ranges would you still support your price at this moment and still guess that range of area to chose in??

Or would you guys change graphs and thought

8k-10k range same question or would you guys go more bullish or maybe bearish?

Moonboots probably stay moon range addicted 😅😂

[KTChampions]

^^^ will read you guys later, just dripping by with a small question for those reading and participating this thread

Those with lower prices 4.5——-7K ranges would you still support your price at this moment and still guess that range of area to chose in??

Or would you guys change graphs and thought

8k-10k range same question or would you guys go more bullish or maybe bearish?

Moonboots probably stay moon range addicted 😅😂

As for me (3151-3200  ) I did not change my forecast.
I see big risks associated with halving and a crisis in the traditional world of finance that should begin very soon. I analyze the risks associated with halving in a separate topic, but unfortunately it is in russian.

[gentlemand]

8k-10k range same question or would you guys go more bullish or maybe bearish?

Moonboots probably stay moon range addicted 😅😂

I put no thought into my guess whatsoever. I have no idea what the price will be and don't really care very much either. I fully expect to be badly wrong.

[buwaytress]

8k-10k range same question or would you guys go more bullish or maybe bearish?

Moonboots probably stay moon range addicted 😅😂

I put no thought into my guess whatsoever. I have no idea what the price will be and don't really care very much either. I fully expect to be badly wrong.

I actually would have guessed a bit higher (not that I can remember though and not that I also put too much thought into it at all haha) but then the range I wanted had been taken. Actually, that's sort of something we could consider for next games, how to "share" if you want, and I imagine those who picked after me might have had very few options on some sides of the extremes...

Psychologically, if I predicted like I bet, I'd probably go for a new ATH.

[Globb0]

[xLays]

A bump and an update of today's bitcoin price.