Halving, who's closest with actual Nrs TAKE A CHANCE on the LIST !!!

[El duderino_]

The pre-halving date is closing in, I think where at 50% of the game, curieus where we will end

[GazetaBitcoin]

Price is way higher than I expected. I thought it will go up a few months after the halving.
Apparently, until now, I was wrong.

But let's see what the future reserves us...

[Viscore]

Price is way higher than I expected. I thought it will go up a few months after the halving.
Apparently, until now, I was wrong.

But let's see what the future reserves us...

As for me, I am not sure if my prediction would hit, if BTC would not pump to $10,000 again then I will give up my hope for that easily.
It seems like bitcoin is still struggling to rise to $10,000 now, after it's good start this year, it is not quite stable with no major movement so far.. what's the next move here? uptrend or downtrend?

[Globb0]

[sgbett]

Because there is an active game based on estimating the price leading upto the Bitcoin block halving (that has yet to occur).

The list closed on January 10th according to the opening post. Maybe I've missed summat. A thread this well served is a fine opportunity for the same dreary people to spurt their dreariness all over it as is currently being ably demonstrated.

That’s not a nice thing to say about all these fine people taking the time to share there opinions?

Imagine being so fragile of conviction that even a minority opposition makes you want to shut down a discussion.

Now imagine having not the slightest doubt about what is going on, such that even when the majority disagrees you feel quite secure. What kind of crazy person does that take!?

That’s always been what it like to support Bitcoin in the face of overwhelming adversity. Nothing has changed.

I’ve been “shut down” in one way or another for years. It tells me more than you can even imagine.

I hope the thread stays open because I like reading what others are posting. Regardless of the fact I don’t agree with most of it. It’s essential to understand both sides of something, more so the side you don’t agree with.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

That guy LFC_Bitcoin needs some movement to get to 11251-11300

[El duderino_]

That guy LFC_Bitcoin needs some movement to get to 11251-11300

Come on brother I hope you get there

[Wind_FURY]

Haha. It's a roller coaster. BUT, buy the dip and HODL, and treat every opportunity to buy below $10,000 like a golden opportunity. It WILL NOT crash under that one day.

[Globb0]

The force is strong with this one  /\

[El duderino_]

One day and a few days till end of game, where da F*** we going at 

[Last of the V8s]

One day and a few days till end of game, where da F*** we going at  

A month and a few days till the end of the game, where da F*** we going to


 
Yeah, weird, we could be anywhere by then. No idea.

[El duderino_]

One day and a few days till end of game, where da F*** we going at  

A month and a few days till the end of the game, where da F*** we going to


 
Yeah, weird, we could be anywhere by then. No idea.

Haha lol when I read that sentence again    what was I doing  .....

[Globb0]

[El duderino_]

We all do love Darth Vader 

[Wind_FURY]

Seeing the recent crash, what's everyone's opinion? Is the halving priced in? I have a mixed opinion, BUT with the recent crash, I ask, how would knowing a change in supply issuance years before it started, be ignored by market-makers, whale-cumulators, and other people that influence the market?

[exstasie]

Seeing the recent crash, what's everyone's opinion? Is the halving priced in?

Nothing is ever fully priced in until it's over and done with. Regarding the upcoming halving, everyone is still speculating about what everyone else is going to do.

People were saying the halving was priced in Q1 2016, right before the price doubled.

I have a mixed opinion, BUT with the recent crash, I ask, how would knowing a change in supply issuance years before it started, be ignored by market-makers, whale-cumulators, and other people that influence the market?

What makes you think it's being ignored?

[Wind_FURY]

Seeing the recent crash, what's everyone's opinion? Is the halving priced in?

Nothing is ever fully priced in until it's over and done with. Regarding the upcoming halving, everyone is still speculating about what everyone else is going to do.

People were saying the halving was priced in Q1 2016, right before the price doubled.

I have a mixed opinion, BUT with the recent crash, I ask, how would knowing a change in supply issuance years before it started, be ignored by market-makers, whale-cumulators, and other people that influence the market?

What makes you think it's being ignored?

Then if the halving is not being ignored, and if it was already acted upon because it's a "known event", then it's possible that it has already been priced in by the market-makers, whale-cumulators, and others that influence and set the price.

[akhjob]

^ I can give you a reason why the price will go up after halving. The Big Miners are the ones that are going to be affected by the halving, halving cuts their revenue generated.  Small miners might give up, but the big ones wouldn’t sell their coins for a loss so eventually, the prices would pump. Moreover, the only way for acquiring Bitcoin is through Mining or purchasing. Miners won't sell their coins for a loss, Hodlers are holding, new coin generation is cut by half, So when the supply is limited and the demand is higher, the price is due for a Pump.
The pump after 2012 halving was ignited because many weren't aware of the halving and FOMOed in. The pump after 2016 halving was because of the rise of ICOs. In 2020, almost everyone in the Globe has heard of Bitcoin and almost everyone in Crypto is aware of the halving event and are prepared. But the thing is Crypto is getting legalised left and right by the Governments, so it is the right time for the no coiners and huge financial institutions to join the party. So just chill, the price of Bitcoin eventually rise parabolically.

[Wind_FURY]

^ I can give you a reason why the price will go up after halving. The Big Miners are the ones that are going to be affected by the halving, halving cuts their revenue generated.  Small miners might give up, but the big ones wouldn’t sell their coins for a loss so eventually, the prices would pump.

Moreover, the only way for acquiring Bitcoin is through Mining or purchasing. Miners won't sell their coins for a loss, Hodlers are holding, new coin generation is cut by half, So when the supply is limited and the demand is higher, the price is due for a Pump.

The pump after 2012 halving was ignited because many weren't aware of the halving and FOMOed in. The pump after 2016 halving was because of the rise of ICOs. In 2020, almost everyone in the Globe has heard of Bitcoin and almost everyone in Crypto is aware of the halving event and are prepared. But the thing is Crypto is getting legalised left and right by the Governments, so it is the right time for the no coiners and huge financial institutions to join the party. So just chill, the price of Bitcoin eventually rise parabolically.

OK, with everyone already, and clearly, knowing all that what you have posted, wouldn't the whalecumulators, market-makers, and other price-setting-entities already have acted on it, and priced the halving in?

[bkbirge]

... wouldn't the whalecumulators, market-makers, and other price-setting-entities already have acted on it, and priced the halving in?

Only if they've accurately calculated the risk. PlanB has a recent article that gives a good explanation but basically investors will determine a price based on risk, if many over estimate the risk then the price will be lower than efficient market hypothesis dictates. With the uncertainty from the mainstream around many crypto issues from hacking to competing coins to unknown regulation it can easily be seen how the risk calculation for bitcoin might be overestimated.

https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107

Key insight is that returns can be explained by risk alone, consistent with EMH. If you encounter an asset above the line, a first reaction could be that it is a great investment opportunity. A better reaction (from an EMH and non arbitrage point of view) would be that it is too good to be true. We are probably missing risks (or have miscalculated risk) and should try to bring the asset back on the line. Quantifying risk (volatility) is difficult, and indeed the expertise of quants of financial institutions.