Halving, who's closest with actual Nrs TAKE A CHANCE on the LIST !!!

[Wind_FURY]

... wouldn't the whalecumulators, market-makers, and other price-setting-entities already have acted on it, and priced the halving in?

Only if they've accurately calculated the risk. PlanB has a recent article that gives a good explanation but basically investors will determine a price based on risk, if many over estimate the risk then the price will be lower than efficient market hypothesis dictates. With the uncertainty from the mainstream around many crypto issues from hacking to competing coins to unknown regulation it can easily be seen how the risk calculation for bitcoin might be overestimated.

https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107

Key insight is that returns can be explained by risk alone, consistent with EMH. If you encounter an asset above the line, a first reaction could be that it is a great investment opportunity. A better reaction (from an EMH and non arbitrage point of view) would be that it is too good to be true. We are probably missing risks (or have miscalculated risk) and should try to bring the asset back on the line. Quantifying risk (volatility) is difficult, and indeed the expertise of quants of financial institutions.

I don't see the connection of the halving and the Efficient Market Hypothesis in that quote.

Read this blog. I believe it's closer, and it's more practical. It actually represents why I partly believe that the halving is priced in.

https://medium.com/@nic__carter/an-introduction-to-the-efficient-market-hypothesis-for-bitcoiners-ed7e90be7c0d

Markets don’t wait for (knowable) events to happen — they anticipate them. This means, if a weather forecast predicts that a hurricane will emerge and wipe out sugarcane plantations next week, speculators will bid up the price of sugar today, anticipating the supply shock.

[1715539248]

1715539248

[1715539248]

1715539248

[El duderino_]

I see I see a shifting in price ranges 

[Wind_FURY]

I see I see a shifting in price ranges 

The bears might have the momentum, but zoom out! The honey badger don't care, Bitcoin will suck all fiat for as long as the Fed can keep using that paper printing machine.

[KTChampions]

Up! 

I'm back in business! My chances are increasing every minute   

[NeuroticFish]

Up! 

I'm back in business! My chances are increasing every minute   

Don't be so happy, if this madness continues much longer Yaplatu will have a better chance than anybody... 
And we're all losing (well, not technically all, "just" the HODLers...)

[Kasabus]

it looks like my chance is now officially dead, it's impossible bitcoin will rise back to $11,000 by the end of the month.
This is very much surprising, I was so optimistic one time, now there's a big dump, I gotta stay realistic, congrats to those who have a very close chance of winning.

[bakasabo]

Looking on price prediction list one can make a conclusion that people believe too much into halving and one single trading day can change the whole situation upside-down. Little more than 2 weeks are left and I guess nothing will change much. So called "recovery phase" will start, which mostly will hold bitcoin from falling more down...

[LoyceV]

Looking on price prediction list one can make a conclusion that people believe too much into halving

Halving the price was unexpected, but the stock markets were bound to go down at some point. What surprised me though, is that Bitcoin fell more. That's not very promising for the next recession, while Bitcoin was supposed to be a save haven.
Block halving is still coming though, and as I read from theymos: a few months after the halving, people will start to feel the increased scarcity:

Historically, the post-halving runup has happened some time after the halving, presumably after people started to really feel the reduced supply.

Who could have expected this virus would have such a big effect on Bitcoin back in January?

[gentlemand]

So does this contest have an Act Of God clause that subtracts 50% from everyone's prediction for events like this? It certainly should do. And I think there should be a special clause just for Extinction Level Events like asteroids that takes 80% off.

Knowing you've won as a 2000ft wall of Atlantic ocean roars towards you could offer some comfort before you're gone.

[GazetaBitcoin]

What happens looks very weird to me. People should go into BTC even more than before. BTC actually offers a real chance to avoid coronavirus (I'll discuss that later). But this is very, very unexpected...

[bitserve]

So does this contest have an Act Of God clause that subtracts 50% from everyone's prediction for events like this? It certainly should do. And I think there should be a special clause just for Extinction Level Events like asteroids that takes 80% off.

Knowing you've won as a 2000ft wall of Atlantic ocean roars towards you could offer some comfort before you're gone.

I have heard rumours that the contest will be cancelled due to coronavirus.

Probably the Dude should come here and do a speech to calm the masses and tell us all is well.

Also I would like to know what measures are being taken to avoid panic from spreading between participants.

[Majormax]

Looking on price prediction list one can make a conclusion that people believe too much into halving

Halving the price was unexpected, but the stock markets were bound to go down at some point. What surprised me though, is that Bitcoin fell more. That's not very promising for the next recession, while Bitcoin was supposed to be a save haven.
Block halving is still coming though, and as I read from theymos: a few months after the halving, people will start to feel the increased scarcity:

Historically, the post-halving runup has happened some time after the halving, presumably after people started to really feel the reduced supply.

Who could have expected this virus would have such a big effect on Bitcoin back in January?

The virus has no effect. BTC price was headed here anyway. It was clear some months ago.

[actmyname]

Tsk, that's the wrong kind of halving, Bitcoin...Felt good to surf the price range a few weeks ago, at least...

[El duderino_]

Damn we almost there ..... 

[El duderino_]

Looking on price prediction list one can make a conclusion that people believe too much into halving

Halving the price was unexpected, but the stock markets were bound to go down at some point. What surprised me though, is that Bitcoin fell more. That's not very promising for the next recession, while Bitcoin was supposed to be a save haven.
Block halving is still coming though, and as I read from theymos: a few months after the halving, people will start to feel the increased scarcity:

Historically, the post-halving runup has happened some time after the halving, presumably after people started to really feel the reduced supply.

Who could have expected this virus would have such a big effect on Bitcoin back in January?

The virus has no effect. BTC price was headed here anyway. It was clear some months ago.

However you wanna look at it, nothing is or was clear.... imo BTC is to new to be clear in whatever way, might pump might dump in the short term, but it's not to be predicted by anyone

[Globb0]

[fabiorem]

Sgbett will win this one.
He called the top, called the bottom, and has been right since then.
Like him or not, we need to admit, the guy is good at what he do.

We are going to see $700 at the end of this year.
Then bitcoin will recover and it will be at the 2000s at the time sgbett predicted.
I'm not buying anything. The asset has proven its worthless against crisis in the fiat system.
I will only buy in the three-digits area and will sell when it reaches sgbett's price.

Holding is a thing of the past, since bitcoin failed its premises.

[Cryptotourist]

Sgbett will win this one.
He called the top, called the bottom, and has been right since then.
Like him or not, we need to admit, the guy is good at what he do.

We are going to see $700 at the end of this year.
Then bitcoin will recover and it will be at the 2000s at the time sgbett predicted.
I'm not buying anything. The asset has proven its worthless against crisis in the fiat system.
I will only buy in the three-digits area and will sell when it reaches sgbett's price.

Holding is a thing of the past, since bitcoin failed its premises.

Fabio, I really think you've had too much time locked inside already.

[Globb0]

Soon

[DoublerHunter]

^ We are almost there bud.
I feel I am lucky if the Bitcoin price will become $6,300 - $6,400 on April first and my prediction is right.
Good luck to all participants and I hope everyone is safe.