Dont let them fool you. We will see a NEW BOTTOM. Maybe BTC at 3400$ again?

[AbuBhakar]

Did you make many people panic about your update news about bitcoin price will down again? how come bitcoin have raise above $8000 and you can said bitcoin will back with lower price under $3400, I although have been experience with some exchange market is not way you can said bitcoin back with lower price, supply and demand become why bitcoin up and down and never have exchange account become bitcoin will grow up or down.

Some were still think the price will bring down that much as they wanted to buy btc that low. I don't think btc prize will be that low again even many put many FUD about bitcoin but they will not succeed knowing the price increasing now especially halving is coming.

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[robelneo]

Interesting chart and information, it does prove that there are manipulations ongoing from people that we don't know the next move, honestly, I am not really aware of this chart and the real picture of the supply these whales are in control, are we left on their decision if they are going to crash or going to pump, the next episode will be when the halving occurs.

[Lucius]

Intro message edited.. my fault. Anyone thinking I would put effort on a post to just some promotion is really paranoid. I posted the link, because I really though it is a great exchange, otherwise I wouldn't risk my reputation working for them. I have been in crypto for a long long time.. maybe I tried 80 exchanges so far, and was greatly dissapointed with the popular ones like Binance or Bitmex with their famous scam wicks, and overload errors, which had a huge loss for so many people.

For someone who has been in business since 1998, posting referral links to a forum where this is expressly prohibited (in post area) doesn't look professional at all. It is also more than obvious that you intend to directly but also indirectly emphasize that the crypto exchange you work for is the best, compared to the 80 exchanges you have used so far. It's a cheap trick that can only fool inexperienced people in the forum, and just one type of advertising packed into a bunch of apocalyptic assumptions.

Before you claim I am a fudder, you should better make some research about me. I tried to spread good words and vibe regarding crypto everywhere online and offline for the last years.

What you did before, and what you do now, should not be brought into any relationship, people change with time, and you have become a crypto pessimist from a crypto optimist. In short, you are trying to pass on your current disappointment to others, we should listen to you and sell all our coins on exchange you promote?

Anyone thinking halving will be great, and we will get new ATH's had just his brain washed by the BTC maximalisms.
Laugh and cal me fudder while you still can. But hey, dont worry, .. it will take only 5 months to see who was right and wrong... and then the one who failed with his claims, should come to this topic and say "yeah i didn't knew a fuck and was absolutely wrong!"  And I am warning you, the bottom is still far away. I though 5K before.. now I will bet for last low at 3.4k.

So in the next 5 months price will drop to $3400? Do you have any specific facts that support it, or is it just your feeling? Personally, I do not reject any of the options, but I also do not think it matters at all what will happen in the next 5 months. The true effects of halving are not expected until 2021, of course, if repeated 2013 and 2017.

[beerlover]

First of all it is not the 2.73 but more like 3.33 that holds it, if you could have somehow read your own chart which I have no idea how you couldn't. Secondly bitcoin is not like fiat, having 95% of it doesn't matter because in the end you will have to sell it to turn it into cash and as long as people are deciding on the price someone could have every single coin in the whole world and it could drop to 1 cent so he won't be rich at all, it is all market make world we live in.

Bitcoin is a volatile commodity, do not shame people who think bitcoin will be 20 thousand dollars in 6 months, I think 3400 is as possible as 20 thousand, none of you are wrong, both of those things are quite possible with bitcoin and has always been because there is no regulations and anything could happen in this market.

[ChiNgadOr]

Intro message edited.. my fault. Anyone thinking I would put effort on a post to just some promotion is really paranoid. I posted the link, because I really though it is a great exchange, otherwise I wouldn't risk my reputation working for them. I have been in crypto for a long long time.. maybe I tried 80 exchanges so far, and was greatly dissapointed with the popular ones like Binance or Bitmex with their famous scam wicks, and overload errors, which had a huge loss for so many people.

For someone who has been in business since 1998, posting referral links to a forum where this is expressly prohibited (in post area) doesn't look professional at all. It is also more than obvious that you intend to directly but also indirectly emphasize that the crypto exchange you work for is the best, compared to the 80 exchanges you have used so far. It's a cheap trick that can only fool inexperienced people in the forum, and just one type of advertising packed into a bunch of apocalyptic assumptions.

didn't I admited already this was wrong and changed inmediatelly? wasn't this edited and the name deleted? What more would you like ? 100 lashed with indiana JOne's whip? I also worked for many other exchanges so far, there were also referals campaigns and I never joined any of them, you can check among my posts all the exchanges for them I did translations and worked as community manager in the past. I Just though this one was worth to mention.
Let's add tot his I find that x125 at binance is absolutely reckless and a way to profit on unexperienced people. This leverage is insane and shouldn't be provided as default for everyone.

Before you claim I am a fudder, you should better make some research about me. I tried to spread good words and vibe regarding crypto everywhere online and offline for the last years.

What you did before, and what you do now, should not be brought into any relationship, people change with time, and you have become a crypto pessimist from a crypto optimist. In short, you are trying to pass on your current disappointment to others, we should listen to you and sell all our coins on exchange you promote?

It is not pesimist or optimis, it is about geting realistic and not marrying an asset, that is all.

Anyone thinking halving will be great, and we will get new ATH's had just his brain washed by the BTC maximalisms.
Laugh and cal me fudder while you still can. But hey, dont worry, .. it will take only 5 months to see who was right and wrong... and then the one who failed with his claims, should come to this topic and say "yeah i didn't knew a fuck and was absolutely wrong!"  And I am warning you, the bottom is still far away. I though 5K before.. now I will bet for last low at 3.4k.

So in the next 5 months price will drop to $3400? Do you have any specific facts that support it, or is it just your feeling? Personally, I do not reject any of the options, but I also do not think it matters at all what will happen in the next 5 months. The true effects of halving are not expected until 2021, of course, if repeated 2013 and 2017.

What would you expect regarding an asset where a 4,5% is in hands of retail investors? I will enlight you.. manipulation, pump and dump..
What is the future of an asset that is losing interest? Where is the massive adoption? the institutional money? What will happen when crypto fiat appears? The more people know about crypto, the more scared they are.. scams, pump and dumps, manipulation..

[ChiNgadOr]

First of all it is not the 2.73 but more like 3.33 that holds it, if you could have somehow read your own chart which I have no idea how you couldn't. Secondly bitcoin is not like fiat, having 95% of it doesn't matter because in the end you will have to sell it to turn it into cash and as long as people are deciding on the price someone could have every single coin in the whole world and it could drop to 1 cent so he won't be rich at all, it is all market make world we live in.

Bitcoin is a volatile commodity, do not shame people who think bitcoin will be 20 thousand dollars in 6 months, I think 3400 is as possible as 20 thousand, none of you are wrong, both of those things are quite possible with bitcoin and has always been because there is no regulations and anything could happen in this market.

Well, mark these words: this halving will be the turning point.

When BTC is not able to reach new highs, people will really lose faith on exponential gains.
As you say, anything coould happen.. but seems the direction will be down. There an increasing lack of interest from  investors, the only way this pumps high, will be with Tether doing like FED.. said that, minting free money. By the way, the New York City State's prosecutor will enjoy the lawsuit against Bitfinex and Tether for market manipulation.. if you didnt heard the voice or see the text messages  recorded about "pumping the market".. search for it.. definitely not funny!

[exstasie]

Well, mark these words: this halving will be the turning point.

When BTC is not able to reach new highs, people will really lose faith on exponential gains.
As you say, anything coould happen.. but seems the direction will be down. There an increasing lack of interest from investors, the only way this pumps high, will be with Tether doing like FED.. said that, minting free money. By the way, the New York City State's prosecutor will enjoy the lawsuit against Bitfinex and Tether for market manipulation..

"Lack of interest from investors"....how so? Why did the chart recently double bottom in the $6,000s and then rally to the $8,000s? That indicates buyers overtaking sellers.

This rally has been slow and orderly (unlike the short squeeze in late October) and open short interest has been quite low for months, so it's hard to see it as just a short squeeze. I also see lots of signs of latent demand.....all the bearish sentiment around here for starters.

[ChiNgadOr]

Well, mark these words: this halving will be the turning point.

When BTC is not able to reach new highs, people will really lose faith on exponential gains.
As you say, anything coould happen.. but seems the direction will be down. There an increasing lack of interest from investors, the only way this pumps high, will be with Tether doing like FED.. said that, minting free money. By the way, the New York City State's prosecutor will enjoy the lawsuit against Bitfinex and Tether for market manipulation..

"Lack of interest from investors"....how so? Why did the chart recently double bottom in the $6,000s and then rally to the $8,000s? That indicates buyers overtaking sellers.

This rally has been slow and orderly (unlike the short squeeze in late October) and open short interest has been quite low for months, so it's hard to see it as just a short squeeze. I also see lots of signs of latent demand.....all the bearish sentiment around here for starters.

The increase of price was probably (as always) pumped by  whale and it is not a clear indicator of more interest in BTC. please do this:turn off the computer, go out.. and ask 50 strangers about how much Bitcoin they OWN (in case they already know about BTC). You will be surprised, this is a promise. Then please come again and share your findings. thanks

About the open interest, with the recent pump OI raised from 600M. to almost nearly 800Millions in a while in world's most popular exchange for leverage trading.. It is a matte rof time until it goes to1  billion again as it did some months ago, and Bitmex Snipper begins the long liquidation party of overleveraged users

[pixie85]

OP you're making a big deal out of nothing. There's a simple reason why addresses with over 0.1 BTC make up for about 12% of all addresses. All businesses exchanges even your wallets are making new addresses to keep the change. For this reason 50% of all addresses are almost empty and it doesn't mean there's manipulation in the air.

Your mistake is believing that all those almost empty/empty and all those full addresses belong to different people. That if there's 14 million addresses with some change on them there's 14 million people in the space with nothing to say about the price. 14 million victims. It's a wrong approach!

What if we only have 2 million unique people in the space who own Bitcoin? What if all those 20 million addresses with less than 0.01 BTC on it belong to the same 2 million people who own all those addresses containing 1 Bitcoin or more?

[Finestream]

Thank you for that very detailed information with some good presentation.

yes, I truly believe that the market could be manipulated due to the facts you shared, however, I also think it's still possible to see a bull run because if they can manipulate to cause a bull run last time, it could also happen this time around, but we need to ensure that we get out at the right time because we don't wanna become a "BAGHOLDER" again.

[ChiNgadOr]

OP you're making a big deal out of nothing. There's a simple reason why addresses with over 0.1 BTC make up for about 12% of all addresses. All businesses exchanges even your wallets are making new addresses to keep the change. For this reason 50% of all addresses are almost empty and it doesn't mean there's manipulation in the air.

Your mistake is believing that all those almost empty/empty and all those full addresses belong to different people. That if there's 14 million addresses with some change on them there's 14 million people in the space with nothing to say about the price. 14 million victims. It's a wrong approach!

What if we only have 2 million unique people in the space who own Bitcoin? What if all those 20 million addresses with less than 0.01 BTC on it belong to the same 2 million people who own all those addresses containing 1 Bitcoin or more?

Are you blind? a 0,53% of addresses own a 85% of BTC's supply. That is a ridiculous amount when compared to the total of addresses available. HUGE manipulation. If you can't see that you are blind. I did my best, to make you all wake, and I won't feel sad for all of you that lose your money for having your brain washed.. you deserve it if you just didn't wanted to conduct any due dilligence at all.
There are still chances of making money, just with leveraged trading taking advantage of price swing (due to whales manipulation of course.. ) just today, 200$ down in few minutes.. and another 100$ down and again up in few fminutes also.. yeahh seems very organic, a lot of people will be interested in investing in an asset that rises,drops and rises again a 2,5% without any reason at all. sure... (ironic)

[gentlemand]

Are you blind? a 0,53% of addresses own a 85% of BTC's supply. That is a ridiculous amount when compared to the total of addresses available. HUGE manipulation. If you can't see that you are blind.

Take out exchange addresses and custody addresses like Grayscale, Coinbase, Bitgo and Xapo and you're left with a less mad figure. Probably vastly less mad.

Even if we ignore that, 0.53% of 18,100,000 or so coins is about 96,000 addresses.

I'm sure quite a few people own more than one of those. All the same you're trying to tell us that a few tens of thousands of people will all collude as one against everyone else?

Righto.

[CryptoBry]

The big takeaway here is that nobody knows where Bitcoin can be months or years from now, yes it can go down but on the same breath it can also go up, again nobody knows. In other words, we should not be listening too much with people who are predicting that Bitcoin can be a million dollar value in a specific year on the other hand the same is true with people who are predicting that Bitcoin can get so low despite the many reasons that it should not. Remember that in the beginning, nobody ever thought that Bitcoin can come this long even with its current value, it was more of a gamble and a gamble that really paid well. Newbies, of course, must make their due diligence by looking at the many possible risks here, nobody should be going into anything blindfolded.

[ChiNgadOr]

Are you blind? a 0,53% of addresses own a 85% of BTC's supply. That is a ridiculous amount when compared to the total of addresses available. HUGE manipulation. If you can't see that you are blind.

Even if we ignore that, 0.53% of 18,100,000 or so coins is about 96,000 addresses.

I'm sure quite a few people own more than one of those. All the same you're trying to tell us that a few tens of thousands of people will all collude as one against everyone else?

What I claim is that any whale of them will pump or dump the price. There is no safety for the retail investor..
By the wya, I wonder where do you get these numbers.. The 0,53% of addresses are 153180 addresses that control 86,17% of BTC's supply.. said that, another 14 millions addresses own the remaining 13,83%. Seems well distributed?
And for a pump, they don't need to collude at all, just one address with few thousands will do the trick.

[ChiNgadOr]

The big takeaway here is that nobody knows where Bitcoin can be months or years from now, yes it can go down but on the same breath it can also go up, again nobody knows. In other words, we should not be listening too much with people who are predicting that Bitcoin can be a million dollar value in a specific year on the other hand the same is true with people who are predicting that Bitcoin can get so low despite the many reasons that it should not. Remember that in the beginning, nobody ever thought that Bitcoin can come this long even with its current value, it was more of a gamble and a gamble that really paid well. Newbies, of course, must make their due diligence by looking at the many possible risks here, nobody should be going into anything blindfolded.

You hit it.. BTC went VERY high, but this exponential gain can't last forever. the jump from 1$ to 100$ , it is no like the same from 100$ to 100.000$ .. both are a x1000$, but let's do some calculations and try to think about marketcaps...
 LEt's be serious... people like MacAfee, talking about 1M. per BTC?¿ wtf?¿  this is just nonsense.. just think about marketcap then. 21 trillions, sounds feasible? I doubt it

The real problem with newbies, is that they are totally biased and have their brain washed. They will get rekt, and still don't know it. And when I talk about newbies, I am not only talking about these "Newbie" ranked members.  I realized that here in forum  are many high rank members that don't like to hear and think about what will happen when they discover they were wrong. But hey.. meanwhile, they can keep on with the advices of their favourite cryptoguru in youtuber or twitter. Later there will be time to cry or for others, sadly to commit suicide.

[peter0425]

If you entered the crypto space in the last 2 years, I am pretty sure you know what I am talking about.

Being a HODLER probable means right now a big bag altcoins portfolio with over a 90% loss.

I would agree that if you were to have bought bitcoin in 2017 you're still sitting on a loss, but you ought to know that whether you make a profit or not all depends on when you got in the market.  If you'd bought bitcoin at the beginning of 2019?  You'd have more than doubled your money--so your point is what, again?

exactly the point ,because those who were trapped from buying in 2017 surely had released their holdings last september 2019 because at least 14k$ is not much lose than in the beginning of 2019.
and those who bought in early 2019 will be in profit even if the new bottom is $5000 because it is much higher that $3000 value last January 2019 .

[fabiorem]

And for a pump, they don't need to collude at all, just one address with few thousands will do the trick.

That's true. Just one whale can move the market at will, because of the huge disparity in the distribution. Also the market is very small and there are exchanges with only 100btc in circulation, easy targets for a single whale.

What would you propose to prevent such manipulation? Self-regulation by the exchanges themselves would not work, since some of them would choose to not have any, to attract more customers, and soon the sheep would flock there, causing losses for the other exchanges... I dont see any other solution than to have the State boot in the exchange's faces, allowing no more than 1% rises and drops per day, since the price manipulation comes from these highly centralized exchanges.

Lets face the fact that bitcoin failed completely at decentralization, since, like you have stated and its a known fact, most addresses are in the hands of a few, and the situation will only get worse, as at any dump most of those buying are themselves, accumulating more and more. State intervention will be inevitable in the long run, and innocent people might suffer from it, since State bureaucrats are not known for being technologically knowledgeable. So what do you propose? The scenario seems very dystopian for a solution that might be good for all.

[chip1994]

actually the opposite of this flow has also crept into my mind. I think if everyone fomo about bitcoin in 2020 and everyone buys it and makes a profit, then who will lost? This financial market always has winners and losers, the majority lose more. then sharks would use this opportunity to sell bitcoin to fomo-only people. so I still keep myself safe and invest only 50% of my capital at the earliest time.

[ChiNgadOr]

If you entered the crypto space in the last 2 years, I am pretty sure you know what I am talking about.

Being a HODLER probable means right now a big bag altcoins portfolio with over a 90% loss.

I would agree that if you were to have bought bitcoin in 2017 you're still sitting on a loss, but you ought to know that whether you make a profit or not all depends on when you got in the market.  If you'd bought bitcoin at the beginning of 2019?  You'd have more than doubled your money--so your point is what, again?

exactly the point ,because those who were trapped from buying in 2017 surely had released their holdings last september 2019 because at least 14k$ is not much lose than in the beginning of 2019.
and those who bought in early 2019 will be in profit even if the new bottom is $5000 because it is much higher that $3000 value last January 2019 .

the problem will begin is this 5K is not just only next stop and drops further

And for a pump, they don't need to collude at all, just one address with few thousands will do the trick.

That's true. Just one whale can move the market at will, because of the huge disparity in the distribution. Also the market is very small and there are exchanges with only 100btc in circulation, easy targets for a single whale.

What would you propose to prevent such manipulation? Self-regulation by the exchanges themselves would not work, since some of them would choose to not have any, to attract more customers, and soon the sheep would flock there, causing losses for the other exchanges... I dont see any other solution than to have the State boot in the exchange's faces, allowing no more than 1% rises and drops per day, since the price manipulation comes from these highly centralized exchanges.

Lets face the fact that bitcoin failed completely at decentralization, since, like you have stated and its a known fact, most addresses are in the hands of a few, and the situation will only get worse, as at any dump most of those buying are themselves, accumulating more and more. State intervention will be inevitable in the long run, and innocent people might suffer from it, since State bureaucrats are not known for being technologically knowledgeable. So what do you propose? The scenario seems very dystopian for a solution that might be good for all.

Just one thing, dont get wrong with this concept:
- BTC is insanely monopolized, and this is out of discussion, only crazy BTC maximalist high on hopium can't see it
- but BTC is effectively decentralized, meaning that your BTC is really yours, no one will confiscate it (state, exchange..) meanwhile you keep the keys

Thanks for adding value to the conversation. This is the point, find a way to solve th ebiggest problem of BTC (appart from low scalability, high transfer fees, low speed, INSANE harm to environment due to exponentially increasing minning cost....)
Honestly I don't see any solution to monopolization's problem. Whales will keep on playing and increasing their holdings with their P&D schemes.. and this is why I think BTC is doomed to fail. Who will catch up next? another existing crypto? a fiat crypto? a new crypto?.. who knows..

actually the opposite of this flow has also crept into my mind. I think if everyone fomo about bitcoin in 2020 and everyone buys it and makes a profit, then who will lost? This financial market always has winners and losers, the majority lose more. then sharks would use this opportunity to sell bitcoin to fomo-only people. so I still keep myself safe and invest only 50% of my capital at the earliest time.

The problem is that them that will lose are the newcomers and there are in a really unfair disadvantage. This is why we are deploying an algorithm trading system that will give a chance to newbies to succeed

[exstasie]

That's true. Just one whale can move the market at will, because of the huge disparity in the distribution. Also the market is very small and there are exchanges with only 100btc in circulation, easy targets for a single whale.

Honestly I don't see any solution to monopolization's problem. Whales will keep on playing and increasing their holdings with their P&D schemes.. and this is why I think BTC is doomed to fail.

Why do you guys assume whales are always successful at manipulating the market, always increasing their holdings? Whales compete against one another, and those who fight against the market get harpooned. Here's a counterpoint to your narrative:

Yes, but the mistake people make is assuming whales are always successful when they try to push the market around like that. I've seen many whales attempt large spot dumps that were instantly swallowed by the market before a move up. Those whales lost a shitload of coins. Some of them likely ceased to be whales altogether because of it.

Consider the Bitstamp bear whale. He dumped 30,000 BTC at $300 when the rest of the market was trading ~$50 higher. The market bought all his BTC then rallied to $450. He returned in 2017 as a bull, signing messages to prove it. So he dumped everything at $300 and bought back during the 2017 bubble.

He's not the only whale to make mistakes like that. They are not infallible!

As you pointed out, Bitcoin's wealth concentration doesn't affect its decentralized nature as money either. Whales can fight each other on the order book all they want, but at the end of the day, they can't change the fact that 1 BTC = 1 BTC. The economy will keep chugging along regardless of what they do.