Dont let them fool you. We will see a NEW BOTTOM. Maybe BTC at 3400$ again?

[ChiNgadOr]

I have been working for an exchange the last months, and I am really worried after seeing so many newcommers bullish on BTC's halving, that enter our telegram group. Oh, by the way, if you didn't tried XXXXXXXX yet, you should take a look because there are some wellcome bonus for trading, and without the need to perform KYC.

Now, let's go to the point. Despite I can seem as a permabear, the truth is that I don't marry any coin at all.
Don't get biased or fall in love with any asset or you will suffer a huge lost. If you entered the crypto space in the last 2 years, I am pretty sure you know what I am talking about.

Being a HODLER probable means right now a big bag altcoins portfolio with over a 90% loss.


This is a fact:
A 0,53% of total BTC addresses control 86% of suppply.. a 2,73% of addresses control an 95,35% of supply.
 You can check in the link, and in the following image

BTC's supply distribution



HAving all this in mind, BTC's manipulation is INSANE and OUT OF DISCUSSION. Don't let you be fooled by BTC maximalists or cyrptogurus. Doesn't matter's news, market sentiment, whatever.. whales just decide if price go up or down. That is all. retail investor don't have any trading power at all. They will move the market and make you FOMO or PANIC. So be smarter, and take care.

Now whales are makign people FOMO, but they will probably dump hard and price  will sink. Around 5k-6k, the minning cost won't be affordable by minor players, so they will leave and  big minning groups will get all the cake. Retail investors will also sell on panic. This will happen soon, and then they could start pumping price before halving occurs. That way, BTC whales could repurchase BTC at cheap prices, and double their profits with the halving.

Regarding halving, let me inform you taht you shoudl also believe all that bullshit about new ATHs. BTC's growth has been exponential during last decade, and this won't last forever. The charts like the following one, give you a fake impression, because it is a logarithmic scale,.. at some point growth is MUCH MUCH MUCH more difficult. I doubt next halving can make BTC's price go over 15k, and then the problem for crypto industry will really start. People will wake up and understand that this is not all magic what surrounds BTC, and it can't relaly rise exponentially forever.  btc maximalists, Cryptogurus, communication media.. only think in their own benefit increasing traffic in their profile pages or platforms or shill their bags.

Halving chart



Please take care


updated

Intro message edited.. my fault. Anyone thinking I would put effort on a post for just some promotion, is really paranoid. I posted the link, because I really though it is a great exchange, otherwise I wouldn't risk my reputation working for them. I have been in crypto for a long long time.. maybe I tried 80 exchanges so far, and was greatly dissapointed with the popular ones like Binance or Bitmex with their famous scam wicks, and overload errors, which had a huge loss for so many people.
BY the way.. I would never ever promote a shaddy exchange in my signature like many of you are doing. Lot of people and projects rekt already, and more will come. I received tons of complaints against Yobit in the last year (along with many many many more... Bitebtc, coinsbit, latoken... really a LOT, please conduct due dilligence before depositing your funds)  while working for cmc. https://t.me/CoinMarketCap And NO, I am not promoting coinmarketcap,...




Just for your info, i have been trading since 1998 (yeah, i am a 41 years old guy) in traditional markets (forex, commodities, stocks,..) until 2011 when i shifted to crypto. Bought 100 BTC at 0,51$.. lost them in 2014 (thanks Mt Gox, reminder: not your keys, not your coins). I survived the dot.com and real state bubbles.. I traded with binary options.. SO yes, I would say I know what I am talkign about when it is about trading. Oh, by the way, I am working on a solution that will really disrupt this shitty unfair world, wehre newbies get rekt because of market sharks and whales. We deployed the algorithm trading system since 4th may and reached nearly a 1400% so far, but hey.. won't write its name, so no one claims I am a shiller. And if you think this is some kind of bullshit, you can find similar companies, like Renaissance technology that made something similar trading in traditional markets -imagine what we are achieving with crypto due so much volatility-.. from 100$ to $401million in 30 years .

Before you claim I am a fudder, you should better make some research about me. I tried to spread good words and vibe regarding crypto everywhere online and offline for the last years.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2886374.0 BEST advice for this Crash
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5069440.0 2346 views and 417 answers I just SOLD my girlfriends car to buy more ETH at sale price
a fudder will sell a car to buy crypto? yeahh, probably

Anyway, let's got to the point. The paradigm changed, I am seriously dissapointed. The Satoshi Spirit is gone, as it is said in the Bronx: "this is the jungle nigga". Social inclusion, financial freedom,.. this doesn't matters anymore, it is about money. Criptogurus and Communications media shilling (both to get more traffic and income), bitcoinmaximalists shilling hard (Novografz, McAfee...) because of their big bags..
The fact is that this is a market where 95% is in hands of a few whales, the rest has nearly 0 chances to success. I have been hearing about massiva adoption, but ar eyou kidding? Who the hell will be interested in something like this? No one! The only that were to step in, are already here. What happened with Bakkt's launch, which supposedly was about to introduce crypto to financial institutions? where is the money? during launch they reached a 700k daily traded volume. The supermarket of my hood has higher turn over. And let me tell you a secret, if financial institutions entered this crypto world , your chances of success will be then negative. We are talkign about very skilled and experienced people with high state-of-the-art tech and huge resources.. so you won't get a f**ing chance against them when it is about trading.

My vision now is that there is lower and lower interest in crypto. People is reallly deceived and upset of manipulation. Let's look back  2 months ago.. China's president, Xi, said everlasting glory to blockchain.. few whales pumped the price, averyone FOMOed.. and boom 45% up. Few days later he highlighted he was talking about BLOCKCHAIN, not crypto.. and dump from 10.5k to 6.5K. And appart from this.. so many scam wicks on a daily basis.. up,down, up, down, liquidating everyone who has a leveraged position. 0 organic move! How would you call a coin that pumps 3k and dumps 4k?a pump and dump coin?

Anyone thinking halving will be great, and we will get new ATH's had just his brain washed by the BTC maximalisms.  
Laugh and cal me fudder while you still can. But hey, dont worry, .. it will take only 5 months to see who was right and wrong... and then the one who failed with his claims, should come to this topic and say "yeah i didn't knew a fuck and was absolutely wrong!" Just the same way that happened half year ago, when I relaized there is less and less interest in crypto, and started shorting since 13k... people laughed.. then 12k.. still laughs.. 11k 10k 9k 8k 7k...mm... don't hear much laughs anymore. And I am warning you, the bottom is still far away. I though 5K before.. now I will bet for last low at 3.4k.




My real concern is about the newbies, who don't know they are newbies.. them who entered in the last 2-3 years, and think they are already cryptogurus and pro-traders. Believing this halving miracle, without realizing the implications of an logarithmic chart.. Too many people will get rekt,..

And quoting Satoshi "If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry".. mean sorry for your loss

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[Wysi]

Let's make sure we don't fall in trap again so we need to have a fixed target in mind for buying as well as cashing out, don't just get carried away by FOMO as 2017 and 2018 should be a learning curve for us. I don't think bitcoin will hit a new bottom value but again it might go back to $6k. Better to say active and not to invest right now as it might  prove fatal but we could invest if we see a further dump before halving.

[Hamphser]

Newcomers should know what is actually happening in bitcoin halving in the past and how long it will start to take off and blast everything up to the moon. There is probably a trap in the market if people keep expecting the effect of bitcoin halving within this year. Previous halving in the past needed more months before it goes bullish.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

If you entered the crypto space in the last 2 years, I am pretty sure you know what I am talking about.

Being a HODLER probable means right now a big bag altcoins portfolio with over a 90% loss.

I would agree that if you were to have bought bitcoin in 2017 you're still sitting on a loss, but you ought to know that whether you make a profit or not all depends on when you got in the market.  If you'd bought bitcoin at the beginning of 2019?  You'd have more than doubled your money--so your point is what, again?

I have been working for an exchange the last months, and I am really worried after seeing so many newcommers bullish on BTC's halving, that enter our telegram group.

Yeah, I can believe that.  I'm not exactly sure what to think of these halvenings, but I've always thought markets are way more efficient than this.  If you could predictably make an enormous profit just by buying bitcoin before a halving, it would be akin to being able to print money.  My spidey senses tingle when people think it's that easy, and it could be that these newcomers are responsible for driving up the price recently.  Who knows.

[styca]

Newcomers should know what is actually happening in bitcoin halving in the past and how long it will start to take off and blast everything up to the moon. There is probably a trap in the market if people keep expecting the effect of bitcoin halving within this year. Previous halving in the past needed more months before it goes bullish.

I agree - the fact that everyone seems to think there will be a big price rise at halving is probably a good indication that it won't happen. Of course we can never be 100% certain of anything in crypto, but if there is this much anticipation of something then that usually suggests that it has already been priced in.

My spidey senses tingle

I'd have that checked out.

when people think it's that easy, and it could be that these newcomers are responsible for driving up the price recently.  Who knows.

Possibly, yes. I was kind of hoping the price rises were a response to the US/Iran thing and that bitcoin was finally showing some signs of being considered a safe haven store of value - I'll concede perhaps more wishful thinking than anything else.

[karanggatak]

yes, I agree with you op we really must always be careful and not be careless with the current increase in bitcoin. because maybe bitcoin will be a big dump before it reduces by half. but I think it will not fall to $ 3,400. according to my predictions the lowest point of bitcoin this year is $ 6000. all possibilities can occur in the cryptocurrency market, we must always observe the movements of bitcoin prices.

[thecodebear]

meh, you predict a return to the bear market of 2018 when that clearly ended over 9 months ago so price going back down to the bottom of the market is extremely unlikely. It's currently over twice that price and trajectory is upward after forming a local bottom in the high 6000s (2x the market cycle bottom).

Also you say this halving won't make the price go over $15k....umm you do realize that the bull run after THE LAST HALVING made it go to $20k right? So now you think halvings are not only going to create smaller explosive gains each time (which is reasonable and accurate) but will actually create a lower price than before! That's really where you lose any sense of logic in your argument.

Some people are so afraid that Bitcoin's future won't live up to the massive gains of the past that they come up with these silly ideas like basic supply and demand will stop working and events that are bullish will instead be bearish in this upside-down world of their imagination.

Fact is, bear market ended April 1 2019 (well technically I guess it ended Dec 2018 but the bottom ended 4/1/19). Since then, the general movements of the market have looked quite similar to the same period of time after the end of the previous bear market from 2015 - some large spikes in price with retractions, but well out of the bottom, and then stalled for half a year until the rise renewed).

Yeah the halving shouldn't be an explosive bullish event, because the crazy bull run tends to start the year after the halving do to gradual pressure from lessened supply over many months. And likely there will need to be some sort of catalyst event to actually kickstart the massive gains in this market cycle. The two prerequisites for it though seem to be the halving taking place and the market (gradually) reaching the previous ATH from the peak of the last cycle. It may hang around the old ATH for a while until some event acts as a catalyst to make the market buy up the price by a few thousand dollars, and then FOMO sets in, wave after wave, until its just too much at which point it all comes crashing down and another market cycle comes to a close. The idea that this won't happen simply cuz you're afraid of whales or whatever is silly. There have always been whales in the market.

There's no need for doom and gloom type posts like this. The market is preceding well and there is no reason to think Bitcoin won't continue on an upwards trajectory long term as always.

[thecodebear]

when people think it's that easy, and it could be that these newcomers are responsible for driving up the price recently.  Who knows.

Possibly, yes. I was kind of hoping the price rises were a response to the US/Iran thing and that bitcoin was finally showing some signs of being considered a safe haven store of value - I'll concede perhaps more wishful thinking than anything else.

It is very clear it was from the iran stuff, and bitcoin has a well established history of rising during geo-political crises like this. It is definitely not wishful thinking, its ordinary and accepting thinking at this point.

Its not like suddenly tons of newcomers entered crypto the exact day the iran stuff started, and then another wave entered the exact day the second round of iran stuff happened, and then they sold some of that as soon the iran situation seems to possibly have cooled off for the time being, and that this had nothing to do with iran. When you have to contort coincidences into a pretzel to make a point, its likely a fairy tale and the simple common sense answer is correct. Iran stuff caused the price to spike, then Iran stuff stopped for at least the present so price stopped rising and is now in a holding pattern for the time being. As the guy even says, "who knows", and he certainly doesn't, he's just throwing out random conjecture to go along with his bearish outlook.

[Hallmader]

Oh, by the way, if you didn't tried BYbit.com yet, you should take a look because there are some wellcome bonus for trading, and without the need to perform KYC.

The fact is that this is the main point of your post. Is this a referral link?

[Wexnident]

Then isn't the end goal the same if BTC whales buy low and sell high cause of the panic selling of other traders? In the end, as long as you don't panic and observe the reasons for every price increase and decrease, you'd be pretty safe investing right? Additionally, as a long term trader, panicking at the face of a possible change in market in a few months, isn't that kind of bad? Since you're expected to be patient not only for these few months but also for the next few years.

[Mahanton]

Oh, by the way, if you didn't tried BYbit.com yet, you should take a look because there are some wellcome bonus for trading, and without the need to perform KYC.

The fact is that this is the main point of your post. Is this a referral link?

This is what im trying to say too where the link given is indeed a referral which op should change or edit it.
Im not familiar with Bybit and even this ones doesnt have KYC i wont consider to use this exchange specially
if it isnt that familiar or popular.

Lots of speculation do talk about even btc would go down to $1000 or whatsoever but looking on the current movement
it hard to say that we would go back to these levels.

[danherbias07]

Thanks for the heads up but I disagree with some of the points here.
Although, I am glad there is someone who made so much effort just to make this.
It's a lot of work and I don't really like it. 

Are we really going to see a new bottom or is it past the due date already?
We should have seen it already in December where people are spending way too much.
I am glad it didn't happen kicking all the FUD's out.
Now, they cannot find much reason to make the bitcoin price down again. There is just none.

Is this one of those created by the FUD group to make HODLers tremble? I don't think it will work much.

[Hallmader]

Oh, by the way, if you didn't tried BYbit.com yet, you should take a look because there are some wellcome bonus for trading, and without the need to perform KYC.

The fact is that this is the main point of your post. Is this a referral link?

This is what im trying to say too where the link given is indeed a referral which op should change or edit it.
Im not familiar with Bybit and even this ones doesnt have KYC i wont consider to use this exchange specially
if it isnt that familiar or popular.

Lots of speculation do talk about even btc would go down to $1000 or whatsoever but looking on the current movement
it hard to say that we would go back to these levels.

If I am not mistaken, this forum does not allow posting referral links. The OP should edit it as soon as possible.

Bitcoin falling down to $1,000 is next to impossible. Again, the content is incidental. The main point of this post seems to be the referral link.

[samuraijin]

you promote a referral link on bybit, Does it not violate the forum rules, if I see the topic title I already know you are part of the FUD that usually comes when bitcoin goes up, you are sweating and worry about margin trading that is not in line with your bet, it reads in my mind

Is this one of those created by the FUD group to make HODLers tremble? I don't think it will work much.

It seems so, but unfortunately their work is in vain, a lot of morons like this in the forum because of mistakes in betting on the margin market or futures market so they suffer huge losses and make FUD diforum in various ways, this is ridiculous even looking funny people like this

[jhonjhon]

Let's make sure we don't fall in trap again so we need to have a fixed target in mind for buying as well as cashing out, don't just get carried away by FOMO as 2017 and 2018 should be a learning curve for us. I don't think bitcoin will hit a new bottom value but again it might go back to $6k. Better to say active and not to invest right now as it might  prove fatal but we could invest if we see a further dump before halving.

I totally agree, we already know that for some reason whales can somehow move the price to their liking but spreading rumors that result in FOMO and it has been going on for like a long time already and as an investor we should already know better. Whether we like it or not FOMO will be there always but what's important is how are we responding to it, we should already know by now what we can do in our part not to be trap or fall on the trap again, we should be smart enough to make the best decision and don't be carried away by anything you hear or say because you might just be disappointed in the end.

[exstasie]

There's no need for doom and gloom type posts like this. The market is preceding well and there is no reason to think Bitcoin won't continue on an upwards trajectory long term as always.

Sure there is. As a contrarian trader, I say the more bearish and pessimistic threads, the better. I take comfort in the fact that so many people still think we're headed to $5K and below. It means they've sold or shorted......which also means they need to buy back. That's fuel for the next bull market.

We're a bit more than 4 months from the halving. People sound just like they did in February or March 2016. "The halving is already priced in, the hash rate is going to crash....."

It all seems so familiar.

[barota]

i dont know why lot of people wait for cheap prices this recent days ; i think prices now very good for buy bitcoin and it will reach 10 k usd soon because halving approaching day by day and and the halving its rare chance that happend every 4 years maybe for buying at current situation of reward mining always

[ChiNgadOr]

intro messag updated

[panganib999]

Well, Anything could happen tbh. Just by the facts of showing a logarithmic chart doesn't necessarily mean that BTC would bottom out, and even if it did, doesn't mean that it would bottom out this halving. Though I got to agree with how the halving news is being spread about everywhere and FOMO can literally be seen on every page of the forum. And with that development, you can really expect either a large amount of traders celebrating or a large amount of traders weeping by the end of the year or so.

Just for your info, i have been trading since 1998 (yeah, i am a 41 years old guy)

Ur like 22 bro, not 41. Just saying.

[sisule]

Did you make many people panic about your update news about bitcoin price will down again? how come bitcoin have raise above $8000 and you can said bitcoin will back with lower price under $3400, I although have been experience with some exchange market is not way you can said bitcoin back with lower price, supply and demand become why bitcoin up and down and never have exchange account become bitcoin will grow up or down.