🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈

[nutildah]

Alright this week I like 2 underdogs to win outright.

I'm going with the Raiders again, over the Saints, and Pats over the Jags.

I know Pats are looking shaky but I'm too invested in them and Drake Maye, so I'm proclaiming this is the turnaround week for the Pats, where they start looking like that Super Bowl bound team with their rising phenom QB, who is earning me big points like he's supposed to. Let's go.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens smash the Cowgirls in Rio. Henry has 10 TDs already this season. Actually I just put in Ravens -5.5 as my 3rd bet, got that little extra juice. Pretty sure they can win by at least 2 FGs.

[yahoo62278]

Alright this week I like 2 underdogs to win outright.

I'm going with the Raiders again, over the Saints, and Pats over the Jags.

I know Pats are looking shaky but I'm too invested in them and Drake Maye, so I'm proclaiming this is the turnaround week for the Pats, where they start looking like that Super Bowl bound team with their rising phenom QB, who is earning me big points like he's supposed to. Let's go.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens smash the Cowgirls in Rio. Henry has 10 TDs already this season. Actually I just put in Ravens -5.5 as my 3rd bet, got that little extra juice. Pretty sure they can win by at least 2 FGs.

Gotta leave your heart out of it when you are picking or trying to pick winners, Jags been hot since last years last 6 or 7 games. Jags won 8 in a row to end last season minus the 1 playoff game and should be undefeated this year but gave the game to Denver last week. They're a good team.

[bbc.reporter]

Alright this week I like 2 underdogs to win outright.

I'm going with the Raiders again, over the Saints, and Pats over the Jags.

I know Pats are looking shaky but I'm too invested in them and Drake Maye, so I'm proclaiming this is the turnaround week for the Pats, where they start looking like that Super Bowl bound team with their rising phenom QB, who is earning me big points like he's supposed to. Let's go.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens smash the Cowgirls in Rio. Henry has 10 TDs already this season. Actually I just put in Ravens -5.5 as my 3rd bet, got that little extra juice. Pretty sure they can win by at least 2 FGs.

I also had the Patriots, however, it appears it was a mistake heheheh but a small mistake because it was an underdog bet. I also had the Seahawks and the Packers. These were big mistakes. I bet them without the spread.

In any case, I will get my revenge! My original prediction was the Rams. I will bet against myself and bet on the Broncos!


This game is giving me highblood pressure!

[Hueristic]

Hair of my Chinny chin chin!!!



wow Wheels, I thought for sure I was toast.

[bbc.reporter]

I will bet again without the spread! Last year I was very much a loser on spread betting and I have also noticed that if I chose the team and accepted the odds without the spread, my result would be positive!

My bet on week 4 are the Bills, the Lions, the Bears, the Seahawks and the Giant!

[nutildah]

Man. I got thrashed this week. A lot of injuries and upsets. Congrats to Chi, who managed to get 173 points this week. Ay yay yay. Time to go back to the drawing board.

[Hueristic]

Man. I got thrashed this week. A lot of injuries and upsets. Congrats to Chi, who managed to get 173 points this week. Ay yay yay. Time to go back to the drawing board.

I've been really lucky this year (knock on wood).

Literally just knocked on wood!

As opposed to past years!

[bbc.reporter]

I am watching this game and I question why is Aaron Rodgers still playing this sport? We can very much notice the happiness feeling on playing with massage Watson, however, on the Steelers you can notice the sadness of Aaron Rodgers' eyes which is also causing sadness on the eyes of his team.

This old man Rodgers should retire. Yes, I have a bet on the Steelers and this will certainly lose because sad teams do not win!

[nutildah]

I am watching this game and I question why is Aaron Rodgers still playing this sport? We can very much notice the happiness feeling on playing with massage Watson, however, on the Steelers you can notice the sadness of Aaron Rodgers' eyes which is also causing sadness on the eyes of his team.

This old man Rodgers should retire. Yes, I have a bet on the Steelers and this will certainly lose because sad teams do not win!

Haha. That is very much true about Rodgers. The thing is there are worse starting QBs than him out there, and he is saving us from having to watch one of them. I woulda bet on Pittsburgh as well, glad I decided to just watch the game.

Its not over... Steelers D had a good fumble recovery.

But its probably over lol.

[yahoo62278]

I am watching this game and I question why is Aaron Rodgers still playing this sport? We can very much notice the happiness feeling on playing with massage Watson, however, on the Steelers you can notice the sadness of Aaron Rodgers' eyes which is also causing sadness on the eyes of his team.

This old man Rodgers should retire. Yes, I have a bet on the Steelers and this will certainly lose because sad teams do not win!

I went to bed early and didn't see 1 second of tonight's game but I did check the score when I woke up. Cleveland 3-1, who would have thought that??? They have been a shitshow for a number of years now and Watson actually not playing too bad. I 100% would have bet the Steelers tonight myself, glad I decided I was tired early and saved money.

[nutildah]

Some good games this week. Ought to experience some exciting new ways to get my ass handed to me, can't wait. In one league I had 5 players knocked out with some kinda injury.

First, I don't see how the market has faith in the start of Jalon Daniels for the Buccaneers. Even if they are playing what looks like one of the worst teams in the league right now, the Packers. And its funny how Sleeper has Giants as slight favorites at -1.5 as the Cardinals are currently favorites at -2.5. I might put a small bet on Cardinals -3.

[Hueristic]

Some good games this week. Ought to experience some exciting new ways to get my ass handed to me, can't wait. In one league I had 5 players knocked out with some kinda injury.

First, I don't see how the market has faith in the start of Jalon Daniels for the Buccaneers. Even if they are playing what looks like one of the worst teams in the league right now, the Packers. And its funny how Sleeper has Giants as slight favorites at -1.5 as the Cardinals are currently favorites at -2.5. I might put a small bet on Cardinals -3.

Right, I've got Eubuka riding the bench, Bucs are toast this year.

Not as bad as the Chargers thought!

*Jones is looking like a complete fucking pussy.

[yahoo62278]

What a start to fantasy, 0-4. At least I am not alone in the 0 wins club. Substation Nation and myself are competing for the worst record in the league this year. Good luck, I have 2 injured running backs and my backup went to IR this week lmao. What's next? Dak and Stafford gonna get injured so I have no QB too?

[DireWolfM14]

I'm not a betting man, but for those of you who are this weekend's matchups looks like it's full of bargains.

The Browns are handicapped at the Jets...  Okay, a home game for the Jets, but still.

The Vikings are only favored by two at the Saints.

The Giants are handicapped at the Commies.  There's no way I can see the Giants losing this one.

And, yeah, I'm biased, but the Niners underdogs in Seattle?  Seattle has lost a step this year, and the Niners are rocking on all cylinders.

[Hueristic]

I had my local llm prepare a shit list of all wr's with at least 10 target share.

I spent 3 hours designing the algo and think its pretty robust.

Big surprise Quentin "Cement Hands" Johnson is ONLY Second !!!



2026 NFL FRAUD BOARD | WEEKS 1-4

Every qualifying WR ranked by confidence-weighted fraud percentile.
Rank 1 = biggest fraud; rank 77 = best. Comp = composite score, 1.000 = worst,
0.000 = spotless. Qualification: WR, target share >10%, >=8 routes, >=10 targets,
all 4 weeks (cohort of 77).

Legend / metrics:

• Sh%/Tg -- target share (player targets / team targets) / total targets
  
• Drp% -- drop rate: FTN charted drops / ALL targets (drops are only
  charted on catchable balls, so uncatchables dilute the rate by design)
  
• YPT -- yards per target: per-target efficiency. THE primary fraud metric:
  volume without per-target production is the definition of empty.
  
• YPRR -- yards per route run: per-route efficiency. Scheme-confounded
  (3-WR vs 5-WR roles), so weighted at exactly 1/5 of YPT.
  
• TCR% -- true catch rate: receptions / catchable balls.
  
• CCR% -- contested catch rate: contested catches / contested targets.
  HIGH = great receiver (pulls a player DOWN the list); LOW = pushes UP.
  '-' = fewer than 4 contested targets.
  
• cTRG% -- contested targets / all targets.
  
• C/T% -- catch rate: receptions / all targets.
  
• Comp -- the overall score. Every stat is first graded against the other
  YPT 45.8%, drop 28%, contested 14%, YPRR 9.2% (= 1/5 YPT), TCR 3%.
  Each weight is further scaled by evidence confidence: log ramps on the
  metric's own sample (rate and/or data points) -- less data = less weight,
  no binary thresholds anywhere.

Code:

 # Player             Tm   Sh%/Tg Drp%   YPT YPRR  TCR%  CCR% cTRG C/T%  Comp
-- ------------------ --- ------- ---- ----- ---- ----- ----- ---- ---- -----
 1 Rashid Shaheed     SEA 13.0/15  6.7  4.87 0.89  87.5     - 13.3 46.7 0.898
 2 Quentin Johnston   LAC 16.2/19 10.5  5.68 0.93  77.8     -  5.3 36.8 0.886
 3 Courtland Sutton   DEN 17.6/22  0.0  3.91 0.69 100.0     - 13.6 40.9 0.830
 4 Ryan Flournoy      DAL 16.0/23  4.3  4.52 0.83  81.2     - 13.0 56.5 0.820
 5 DK Metcalf         PIT 22.9/33  9.1  6.45 1.26  80.0  30.0 30.3 48.5 0.783
 6 Jaylen Waddle      DEN 20.8/26 11.5  7.12 1.64  80.0  25.0 15.4 61.5 0.766
 7 Terry McLaurin     WAS 17.1/22  9.1  6.41 1.41  71.4  42.9 31.8 45.5 0.761
 8 Antonio Williams   WAS 14.7/19  5.3  6.53 1.68  85.7     - 10.5 63.2 0.749
 9 Makai Lemon        PHI 14.2/15  0.0  4.33 0.56 100.0     -  6.7 66.7 0.749
10 DeMario Douglas    NE  14.4/17  0.0  4.82 0.83  81.8     -  5.9 52.9 0.747
11 Brian Thomas Jr.   JAX 14.1/14 14.3  7.50 1.48  75.0  33.3 42.9 64.3 0.738
12 Matthew Golden     GB  24.7/37 10.8  7.41 1.93  78.3  22.2 24.3 48.6 0.724
13 Stefon Diggs       WAS 24.0/31  3.2  5.48 1.60  90.0  40.0 16.1 58.1 0.705
14 Wan'Dale Robinson  TEN 21.3/23  0.0  5.35 1.16  88.9     - 13.0 69.6 0.703
15 Jordan Addison     MIN 22.0/22  4.5  7.41 1.27  84.6     -  4.5 50.0 0.680
16 Khalil Shakir      BUF 20.5/23  8.7  7.65 1.89  88.2     -  4.3 65.2 0.666
17 Xavier Worthy      KC  18.6/22  0.0  6.05 1.05  82.4  25.0 18.2 63.6 0.664
18 Xavier Hutchinson  HOU 18.8/26  0.0  6.38 1.48  80.0  20.0 38.5 46.2 0.660
19 Emeka Egbuka       TB  19.8/24  0.0  6.42 1.11  93.8     - 12.5 62.5 0.656
20 Keenan Allen       IND 16.3/20  0.0  5.00 1.30  92.9  37.5 40.0 65.0 0.648
21 Michael Wilson     ARI 29.7/44  0.0  5.86 1.64  89.3  18.2 25.0 56.8 0.648
22 Adonai Mitchell    NYJ 13.6/15 13.3  8.20 2.02  69.2  33.3 40.0 60.0 0.646
23 Dohnte Meyers      CIN 10.3/16 12.5  8.06 1.43  78.6  50.0 25.0 68.8 0.639
24 Jahan Dotson       ATL 14.0/13  0.0  7.31 1.17 100.0     -  7.7 46.2 0.638
25 KC Concepcion      CLE 24.3/28  0.0  5.14 1.21  89.5  50.0 14.3 60.7 0.627
26 Chris Bell         MIA 12.7/13  0.0  7.08 1.18  83.3  42.9 53.8 38.5 0.626
27 Devaughn Vele      NO  18.1/31  3.2  7.29 1.24  87.5  50.0 19.4 67.7 0.623
28 George Pickens     DAL 19.4/28 10.7  8.04 1.52  85.7  66.7 21.4 64.3 0.601
29 Roman Wilson       PIT 16.7/24  4.2  7.83 1.77  87.5     - 12.5 58.3 0.587
30 Dyami Brown        WAS 10.1/13  0.0  6.62 1.10  77.8  50.0 30.8 53.8 0.583
31 Jameson Williams   DET 15.7/25 12.0  9.16 1.41  76.2  60.0 20.0 64.0 0.576
32 Josh Downs         IND 22.8/28  0.0  7.21 1.55 100.0  30.0 35.7 60.7 0.564
33 Amon-Ra St. Brown  DET 28.9/46  0.0  6.59 1.85  96.9  35.7 30.4 67.4 0.554
34 Dontayvion Wicks   PHI 18.9/20  5.0  9.85 1.67  85.7     - 10.0 60.0 0.529
35 Carnell Tate       TEN 29.6/32  6.2  8.38 2.16  91.7     -  9.4 68.8 0.514
36 Luther Burden III  CHI 24.0/29  0.0  7.55 2.01 100.0  16.7 20.7 65.5 0.514
37 Malik Washington   MIA 27.5/28  0.0  7.82 1.96  89.5     -  7.1 60.7 0.503
38 Chris Godwin Jr.   TB  14.9/18  0.0  7.89 1.04 100.0     -  5.6 88.9 0.502
39 Ja'Marr Chase      CIN 18.1/28  0.0  7.57 1.75  91.3  40.0 17.9 75.0 0.486
40 Ted Hurst III      TB  13.2/16  0.0  8.00 1.17  72.7  50.0 37.5 50.0 0.483
41 Malachi Fields     NYG 13.5/15  0.0  8.40 1.40 100.0     -  6.7 53.3 0.462
42 Christian Watson   GB  21.3/32  6.2 10.34 2.43  80.0  30.0 31.2 62.5 0.451
43 Deebo Samuel Sr.   SF  15.5/17 11.8 10.88 2.15  87.5     -  0.0 82.4 0.448
44 Ladd McConkey      LAC 14.5/17  5.9 10.76 2.10  85.7     - 11.8 70.6 0.437
45 Romeo Doubs        NE  16.9/20  5.0 10.15 1.88  85.7  50.0 20.0 60.0 0.433
46 Cooper Kupp        SEA 10.4/12  0.0  9.50 1.31  90.0     - 16.7 75.0 0.433
47 Mike Evans         SF  21.8/24  4.2  8.88 2.63  94.4  60.0 20.8 70.8 0.427
48 Malik Nabers       NYG 23.4/26  0.0  8.00 2.04 100.0  50.0 15.4 69.2 0.411
49 Isaiah Williams    NYJ 10.9/12  8.3 11.25 1.12  90.9     - 25.0 83.3 0.397
50 Parker Washington  JAX 26.3/26  0.0  8.77 2.30 100.0  33.3 23.1 61.5 0.387
51 Tre Harris         LAC 17.9/21  0.0  9.95 1.85  86.7     - 14.3 61.9 0.364
52 Davante Adams      LA  24.4/38  5.3 10.26 2.47  91.7  71.4 18.4 57.9 0.364
53 Chris Olave        NO  28.1/48  2.1 10.23 2.73  94.6  42.9 14.6 72.9 0.359
54 Tre Tucker         LV  16.9/23  0.0 10.13 1.94 100.0  20.0 21.7 65.2 0.358
55 Garrett Wilson     NYJ 28.2/31  0.0  8.71 2.16  92.3  64.3 45.2 77.4 0.355
56 Tee Higgins        CIN 25.2/39  2.6 10.28 2.80  89.3  45.5 28.2 64.1 0.353
57 Rome Odunze        CHI 16.5/20 10.0 11.65 1.89  87.5  80.0 25.0 70.0 0.351
58 Tetairoa McMillan  CAR 26.5/39  0.0  9.87 2.35 104.0  25.0 10.3 66.7 0.346
59 DJ Moore           BUF 17.9/20  0.0  8.90 2.47 100.0     -  5.0 60.0 0.343
60 Denzel Boston      CLE 19.1/22  4.5 12.91 2.10  81.2  37.5 36.4 59.1 0.330
61 DeVonta Smith      PHI 25.5/27  0.0  8.70 2.24 100.0 100.0 14.8 70.4 0.329
62 Kalif Raymond      CHI 19.0/23  0.0  9.57 2.20  95.5     -  4.3 91.3 0.327
63 Tyquan Thornton    KC  12.7/15  6.7 14.60 2.23  91.7  40.0 33.3 73.3 0.322
64 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 36.5/42  4.8 11.45 4.15  88.9  37.5 19.0 76.2 0.313
65 Puka Nacua         LA  13.5/21  0.0  9.48 2.88 100.0     - 14.3 66.7 0.300
66 Isaac TeSlaa       DET 10.7/17  0.0 11.00 1.44 100.0     - 11.8 52.9 0.294
67 Jalen Coker        CAR 15.0/22  0.0 10.09 2.44 100.0     -  9.1 81.8 0.284
68 Zay Flowers        BAL 21.6/22  9.1 16.00 6.29  90.0     - 13.6 81.8 0.273
69 Rashee Rice        KC  14.4/17  0.0 11.18 2.00  92.9     - 11.8 76.5 0.259
70 Jakobi Meyers      JAX 15.2/15  0.0 11.00 1.65 100.0     -  6.7 86.7 0.232
71 Mack Hollins       NE  16.9/20  0.0 10.45 2.30 107.1     - 10.0 75.0 0.222
72 CeeDee Lamb        DAL 31.9/46  0.0 10.83 3.48  90.2  50.0 26.1 80.4 0.217
73 Rashod Bateman     BAL 14.7/15  0.0 11.40 1.68 100.0     -  0.0 73.3 0.201
74 Justin Jefferson   MIN 17.0/17  0.0 10.53 3.20 100.0     - 17.6 76.5 0.198
75 Nico Collins       HOU 13.0/18  0.0 10.72 2.88 107.7  77.8 50.0 77.8 0.194
76 Keon Coleman       BUF 14.3/16  0.0 13.56 2.38 100.0     - 12.5 87.5 0.133
77 Drake London       ATL 26.9/25  0.0 14.80 3.98 100.0     -  4.0 80.0 0.110

Built from public NFL game data for weeks 1-4 of
2026 -- every one of the 4,003 thrown balls was matched to the receiver it was
thrown to. Spot-checked every stat 108 times against
three independent public sites (drops, contested catches, target shares, routes
run): all 108 checks matched our numbers exactly -- zero disagreements.
Data is complete through Oct 8, 2026.




Obviously this is not based on target share nor ff points generated, this is calculated on performance only and should vary widely as the data set increases but it does point out some interseting things that I'll let you guys decide for yourselves.

[bbc.reporter]

This defense of the Cowpersons is making the Bucaneers 4-0 instead of 0-4 heheheh. This is another game that is giving me highblood pressure!

In any case, who has gotten Eubuka from the waiver wire? However, it appears a lucky man has him now. Why was he dropped by the original owner? He might produce more points than someone like Najee Harris or if replacing a wide receiver, Courtland Sutton.


Pass intercepted, I will turn off tv.

[yahoo62278]

This defense of the Cowpersons is making the Bucaneers 4-0 instead of 0-4 heheheh. This is another game that is giving me highblood pressure!

In any case, who has gotten Eubuka from the waiver wire? However, it appears a lucky man has him now. Why was he dropped by the original owner? He might produce more points than someone like Najee Harris or if replacing a wide receiver, Courtland Sutton.


Pass intercepted, I will turn off tv.

I obviously wanted Dak to have a monster game as he is my QB but he didn't come anywhere close to the game I needed. Bucky Irving and Jalon Daniels were the story of tonight's game. Impressive game for the young QB for his 1st start and Irving couldn't be stopped. 165 yards on the ground, Cowboys didn't have any defense, heck they really didn't have much offense either.

3 of us were in discord chatting and watching the game and 1 of us had Irving against him lol. Glad it wasn't me, guy ended up with 36.5 points in our league. Good pickup for mr Eli-2 Brady-0.

Wish more of you would join us in discord, we leave the forum drama out of there mostly and just enjoy football.

[OgNasty]

Rest in peace Mike Ditka. One of the greatest coaches ever in my opinion. The last of the old school guys. That 1985 Chicago Bears team is my favorite of all time. I could watch Walter Payton run forever. Such great memories playing Tecmo Bowl as a kid. The game lost a great today. RIP Mike!

[nutildah]

Some good games this week.

I put a small bet on Steelers -3. They seem to be turning things around, and its a home game for them.

If that wins then I will probably take Browns @ +2.

Then Bills vs. Rams on Monday ought to be exciting. Puka will be back in full form. Fingers crossed.

[yahoo62278]

Some good games this week.

I put a small bet on Steelers -3. They seem to be turning things around, and its a home game for them.

If that wins then I will probably take Browns @ +2.

Then Bills vs. Rams on Monday ought to be exciting. Puka will be back in full form. Fingers crossed.

Colts aren't exactly shit, I looked at that game myself and couldn't pull the trigger either way. Can Pittsburgh stop the run game is the big question for me there?

I want to fire on Cincy to cover 7 vs the Dolphins. Thoughts? I also kinda like the Bears to be fired up for the divisional matchup with the Packers. With the Passing of Mike Ditka maybe they play inspired this weekend and cover 1.5.