I decide to bring this thread to the global board to sharing my trading activity with some method has been created by me, this thread is a translated which was created on my local board:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5231845.0
IntroBefore we get into the main topic, let's read for a moment the definition of Fundamental Analysis :
According to "Wikipedia" Fundamental analysis, in accounting and finance, is the analysis of a business's financial statements (usually to analyze the business's assets, liabilities, and earnings); health;[1] and competitors and markets. It also considers the overall state of the economy and factors including interest rates, production, earnings, employment, GDP, housing, manufacturing and management.
Meanwhile, according to my personal opinion, Fundamental Analysis is an analysis to speculate by getting conclusions from various data was taken from News, Projects, Rumors and other information relating to the token, coin or project so that it gives us a decision whether it is worth it or not to buy that coins/token.
In cryptocurrency, especially major coins, usual traders before doing a trade they will make a decision in the purchase of a digital asset from a variety of analyzes, one of which is: Fundamental Analysis which is usually done before doing Technical Analysis. Usually, traders do Fundamental Analysis by searching for some News, Rumors and about the information about the project then they will confirm with "Technical Analysis" to know did the News / Rumors will give an effect to the price markets or not. From this, we can know that the Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis are related to each other.
Basic ResearchBasic Research is a beginning research by getting conclusions from the data provided & information in a project/altcoin, the data taken is very varied either from Main Idea / Concept, Whitepaper, Roadmap, Team, etc. This research is usually done if there is an Altcoin, a new project or a trader who wants to trade/invest in the project or altcoin. According to me personally, anyone can still conclude an altcoin/project with "Basic Research" because this is very easy and also very common for people who have often traded. This research was important, so we cant get into the real shitcoin went the development already stoped and avoiding in into a scam project. Here is what I did went doing "Basic Research" before getting in into the project:
Main Concept, Idea, Use-CaseThe initial research that can be done is to find out about what the project is, we are required to find information related to the project. Usually, we can find that information, on the coin / token website, whitepaper, etc. At the moment there are many altcoins that focus on all things like MSME Improvement, some even about 18+ xD. I used to be able to draw conclusions quickly from the main concept of the project offered. If it was felt that the things offered by the project/platform did not require cryptocurrency, then I made a speculation that's project/platform was not worthy to be an investment instrument.
Sometimes I personally, look for some projects that are really related to cryptocurrency. I feel that projects that offer problems from cryptocurrency are more potential than other projects that do offer projects to help problems in real-live even though the problem itself does not need cryptocurrency. Some things to consider:
- Privacy.
- Solved a problem from Scalability.
- Transaction speed.
- Fee (Optional).
Type Project or Coins/TokenWhat I mean here is did the project using an ICO or Non-ICO for the funding project & whats type of these cryptocurrency Coins/Tokens. Each of these types has some advantages and disadvantages. Therefore I classify each of these types with advantages & disadvantages, i.e. :
ICO Tokens/CoinsAdvantage :
- Have a potential team.
- The platforms/projects offered have more potential to be developed than non-ICO projects.
- Quite a lot of resources due to get fresh funds from ICO, Crowdfunding or IEO.
Disadvantage :
- Circulation of supply is not maintained, because the supply of tokens/coins circulates quite a lot, this makes the potential price of tokens to fall even greater. Because the circulation of the tokens are quite a lot without building the fundamentals of the price of the coin in the market.
- The price of coins/tokens has the potential to go down more than non-ICO projects
- Premine : (Situational)
Non-ICO Tokens/CoinsAdvantage :
- Supply of coins is maintained.
- Early Miners get more benefits, because as an early adopter in the project.
- Price & Fundamental coins can be built first at the same time with the development of the coins/token itself.
- Focusing first on the development aspect rather than trying to create hype.
- The topic of discussion between communities, is more focused on project development.
Disadvantage :
- Limited funds, so it requires the role of the community.
- Lack of team usually for teams a non-ICO Coins / Tokens will adjust during the development of the project/platform. Some developers sometime will join and be part of the team if they see had a significant-good development/result from the project.
- Very little community, maybe only a hundred member a bit far went we compared to the "ICO Project" which is almost thousands of members.
CommunityThe last step is to see how active the community was before entering it into the coin. People say that a good project will have a very large community. That does not apply to me, building a solid community cannot be done in a short time. My self prefers a little community rather than a huge community cause the most important is the discussion from community more focus discusses too the progress from the development of the project/platform rather than many communities that only discuss only about "Airdrop" and other forms of marketing.
Trading ActivityBefore trading, you are required to set several things related to the trading instruments you will use to doing a trade. We first observe the volatility movement, determine the Fund Management & Percetage Management that we can do when trading activities. The example from myself i already set up my Fund Management & Percentage Management that I have implemented went doing a trade.
Fund Management :
- Low : 10-20$
- Medium : 20-30$
- High 30-50$ / 50-100$ (Depent the situasional, order book & volume trading)
Shitcoin trading is trade that has a greater risk level than trading in general, therefore the use of funds that we can use is quite limited. When we trade in general, we can certainly use hundreds or even thousands of dollars when trading with a major coin. But in shitcoin, which has a limited volume & order book using large funds when trading a shitcoin will make it difficult for the trader himself if he wants to sell coins/tokens instantly cause the volume and order book was not enough to filled his order.
Percentage Buy/Sell :
- 5-15%
- 30%
- 50-70%
- More than 100%
The data above is a data that I have set myself from my trading activities, some data is taken from various references.
- Percentage Changes Price at Coinmarketcap during Bullish / Bearish Cryptomarket.
- Percentage Changes Price of Coins at the exchange.
Therefore the above data is situational, I prefer to choose the second option when trading, but in subnational outline the percentage that I buy/sell is the list that I make.
Trading Time
There are several categories of trading time same as trading in general, but the trading time that I use is usually:
- Short Trade : 1-3 Weeks
- Medium Trade : 1 Month or more.
- Long Trade : More than 3 months.
For "shitcoin" long trades, it is usually more interested to new "coins" went the "Developers" intent to provide some benefits for cryptocurrency fans. Usually, I go for a long trade if the project fulfills all the criteria that I discussed at the beginning of this thread.
Pair Trading
Shitcoin trading does not have to be fixed to the "Bitcoin" pair, you can try with other pairs such as ETH, Doge or LTC. Due to several cryptocurrency that does have prices below 1 satoshi, so if we trade with the pair "Bitcoin" will certainly be stuck only at 1 sat and have to wait until orders was taken by other traders. Benefits of using other pair with under 1 sat pair like ETH, Doge or LTC we can buy coins at a price that is relatively cheap or from the actual price of the coin. We can also sell to the pair "Bitcoin" with a large gap between other pairs if we compare it with "Bitcoin". The percentage difference of the price pair bitcoin with other pairs could have reached 50, 100 or even 500%. If you felt that the total order book at that price is not really huge, you could try to put some order on 1 sat and just waiting for the order taken by someone. But of course, you need waiting patiently since ur order using the bitcoin pair and the orde the price is 1 sat could take a long time 3, 6 and even more 1 year to be filled so u need a lot of patience if you put an order at 1 sat.
Trading ExperiementDetermine Orders with Coins / Token Price Volatility.Source Picture : UEX Exchange, From my experiment trade.
One example of trading that I've done is Kora (KNT / ETH) on the Uex Exchange (Closed), not much that I can share about the BUY / SELL history, since the exchange is closed. From the picture of the movement history above, usually I like the type of Coins / Tokens that have a flow like this for shitcoin trading is compiled with the Order Book + Volume token.
Usually, I will place a an order by calculating from the "Highest Price" on that day I am trading, the calculation formula that I use will be like this:
Highest Price - 30% (Example) = Estimated Order Book that I will place.
In the picture that I gave you an example, the calculation would be like this:
7000 Gwei - 30% (2100 Gwei) = 4900 Gwei.
From the above results, I usually calculate estimates by looking at the order book as well, I could have placed an order between 4500-4900 Gwei if the order book was worth that much, it was quite small. If there is a wall order from the estimation I made, I try to always be above the wall in some cases sometimes the price will bounce on the wall order token/coins.
As far as I remember when trading this token, I use the fund for doing a trade 0.15xx ETH worth around 250-300 $ if we calculated from the price ETH on that days will be around 30-45 $. In more than 1 week trading on UEX Exchange, I got some profit and my balance turned to 0.25 if I am not mistaken, more than 50% of the profit I get.
Support & Resistance ZoneFor those who are often in technical analysis, it must be familiar with the name of Support & Resistance above, for an explanation of this, please visit the technical analysis thread because there are already a lot of explanations at there. This technique is one technical analysis that is fairly basic and familiar with it. I sure 80-90% of people can find support & resistance when doing technical analysis.
In my fundamental analysis, there are also Support & Resistance that I apply but are different from "Support & Resistance" which uses the highest/lowest price of the price of the token or coins but i used it from the "Wall Order Book" of the coins or tokens.
But doing this have few problems that are considered quite disturbing by using this method, namely "BOT ORDER". There are several types of bot orders that you must know, so that you can distinguish between "Bot Order" and "Real Order". The types of bots that I know right now are:
- Pump / Dump Moving Bot Order: Bot which always moves automatically at the top / bottom order (Buy / Sell), this bot will react every time a trader does order above / below the bot order.
- Wall Moving Bot Order: Bot which will react when the price of coins / tokens touch a certain price that has been set by the bot, for this bot it is more "Buy Order" than "Sell Order".
To make the order book a "Support & Resistance" the order book must have a wall order of 30-50% or even more than the volume of coins/tokens so that the order book can give a rebound effect when the price touches the price of the order wall book.
The disadvantage of this method, the "Wall Order Book" will always move or even traders who place orders on the wall revoke their orders so that we cannot always make these prices as a reference for "Support & Resistance". In this case, you are required to monitor the orders that are in the coins/tokens every day. If there is no "Wall Order Book" or too far away, usually I will try to sell the coins/tokens at the same price or take a cutlose.
Take advantage of Gap Orders when New coins/token entering New ExchangeThe last thing that can be used as an alternative is to take advantage of gap orders when the coins/tokens get a listing on the new exchange. Usually when there is a coin / token listing on a new exchange, there will be a large order gap because the order book hasn't been created at all so we can take advantage of this condition to try to get coins/tokens at a low price or selling with the high price. But this method is not always successful, here we only use traders who do not know the real price information of the coins so that the trader sells the price of coins instantly at a low price. Maybe it can be categorized as "Luck", the time period that I use is around 7 days if there really isn't a trader filled my orde usually I will immediately withdraw the order and leave.
For example, if an order is placed successfully filled, you can do a Sell Order by selling at the actual price of coins/tokens or trying to order at the farthest spread when listing on the exchange. The picture above is one of the experiments I have ever done, when the MESG token gets a listing on IDEX which at that time the real price was around 30K Gwei, my order was filled by someone at 21K Gwei.
If you calculate the percentage difference from the original price with the price I get is about 30% from the original price and I succeed in selling around 700 MESG Tokens at 75K Gwei with a profit percentage of 200% +. The rest I sell on Digifinex with the original price, since trading history data "Digifinex" only displays data from the last 3 months i cant put at here, then I decide to include the price data from coinmarketcap on the day of thats order books has created.
Disclaimer :This thread is not a trading suggestion that guarantees you will always be successful in trading, but just a sharing of trading experience that has been done @OP in using fundamental analysis. @OP is not responsible if there is a loss by following the fundamental techniques described, you are responsible for what you have done yourself DYOR & DWYOR.
Log Thread :
I change a bit sentence or word from my local thread, so the thread could be more understand that my original thread
Add Self-Moderated to prevent spam, please avoided pyramid quote and full quote of the thread. Just use -snip- went you want to full quote the whole thread, thanks.