I think at least in the next year. Because every day a large number of people become infected and this number still growing. So the global economy will be hit hard by this long-term impact on it.
without lockdowns a country starting with 50 cases(imported) would hit their ICU bed capacity in 2 months
take USA. it has 20 icu beds per 100k populous (66kbeds for 330m pop)((before rampling up bed capacity in march))
using a r0 of 2.6
50, 130, 338, 879, 2285, 5941, 15446, 40159,
104414this is why america locked down at the 4-6 week to bring the proceeding number of infections down to not hit the ~66k number by week 9
and it worked
but the down side is that the spread is only at ~33k a day = 10000 days for full spread.
even if you do a 5x multiple of asymptomatic people not tested thats still 2000 days for full population spread while keeping numbers of symptomatic at 30k a day.
yep years under current lockdown
..
but by relaxing the restrictions will increase the spread above an r0 of 1. which will speed up population spread, but will also mean more people get sick at same time causing more strain on hospital resources
for instance even just 1.1 would cause 30k daily numbers to be
30000, 33000, 36300, 39930, 43923, 48315, 53147, 58462, 64308,
70738yep overflow in 2 and a half months. meaning another full lockdown in 2 months
this is why countries want the number do come down before relaxing.
say it was only 10k
10000, 11000, 12100, 13310
14641, 16105, 17716, 19487
21436, 23579, 25937, 28531
31384, 34523, 37975, 41772
45950, 50545, 55599, 61159
67275
which is ~5 months
so bring cases down initially by keeping full lockdown active will add another 3 months of freedom with relaxed restrictions so people can have over 4 months of relaxation instead of 2 months
the end goal is to try and 'track and trace' infecters and their infectees to try keeping number at or below 1
because at or below 1 means its not going to increase
yep no further lockdown if it can relax restriction but keep at or below 1
which requires people to stop touching random people/things. and if they are sick stay home. and tell everyone they come into contact with in previous week to stay home too.
but this r0 of 1 would take as i said before a couple years for full spread. meaning social distancing and contact tracing for 2 years
for example. sweden does contact tracing. and they are not at a r0 of 1 or lower.
they are 1.1-1.2
meaning the numbers will rise and a few of their relaxed rules will need to be tightened.
in short. dont expect to go to music concerts in the next couple years