Trading is based on probability.

[ololajulo]

Have not seen a perfect market trader that predicts right every time especially if he predicts regularly, at least monthly. So it is base on probability. Those who are inside are careful with information they dont divulge at all. The technical analysis are good but not the best tool to make decision for short term. For whatever tool adopted for decision, long term projection for good project is the best.

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[TheGreatPython]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Yes it’s based on probability. Experts don’t just make predictions on where the price will be heading up next, they also predict level where the price may likely drop to if it doesn’t go up. So, it’s based on probability just like you have said. Those who read the charts after they read it, they predict where it might reach if it moved up and then they will invest. That’s why making use of stop loss is very important because you don’t know where it’s heading to. After you have done the math and started trading, you then set the stop loss where it’s meant to stop at, so you don’t lose your money.

Trading is based on probability and permutation and due to this reason we are able to apply mathematical formula into it to predict its future. If trading is not at all based any of mathematical thing, then we cannot get into any strategies to analyze it. I mean being based on probability is not a week point of trading. It is a hidden advantage for the people who want to make use of technical analysis.

Technical analysis helps people to foresee the market movements but it will not get us 100$ accurate things because the basic oscillation of market is probability based which means on what direction most traders are riding, market will move on that direction.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

This isn't just subjected to trading as everything in this world is based on probability. There's no 100 percentage of the outcome coming out as you predicted even though you employed all the techniques, experience money can offer. Traders have to be mentality capable of accepting whatever outcome their trade produce and this isn't only address at losses since some traders out of over excitement of massive profit do some regrettably things like reinvesting into same trade hoping to replicate similar outcome.

Although probability is what trades are all about but still, experience and having the right tools and information plays a very important role in contributing to making the probability of a trade work in your favor, that's what makes you a professional trader.

[rexxarofmoknathal]

Have not seen a perfect market trader that predicts right every time especially if he predicts regularly, at least monthly. So it is base on probability. Those who are inside are careful with information they dont divulge at all. The technical analysis are good but not the best tool to make decision for short term. For whatever tool adopted for decision, long term projection for good project is the best.

It is true, at least the way I see it that trading is almost the same as probability and odds. And that's because no. matter how in depth your analysis might be you can never be 100% certain you'll get your profit. What you can always do and should aim as a trader is minimise the risk of loss. Only then you can start thinking about the risk window you can allow to give yourself because prices change so quickly that sometimes even the analysis from a few minute ago can no longer apply to the market.

[Renampun]

trading can not be separated from the probability...
each trader makes a decision from deep analysis and then produces a probability, and every decision to sell, buy, or hodl will greatly affect the assets of the trader. many people think trading is not much different from gambling but they don't understand that gambling is a guess that requires luck to win.

[deisik]

trading can not be separated from the probability...
each trader makes a decision from deep analysis and then produces a probability, and every decision to sell, buy, or hodl will greatly affect the assets of the trader. many people think trading is not much different from gambling but they don't understand that gambling is a guess that requires luck to win

That's probably not what OP means

As I got it, he seems to refer to the random nature of trading as it reveals itself in price action and our reaction in the form of trading choices and decisions. So it is not so much about the probability for something to go wrong (as in "everything about life is based on probability because no one actually knows what tomorrow holds") but rather about this random nature of concrete price movements. It is not that they are random on their own, but they are effectively random for us and our decision-making machinery

[thesmallgod]

I don't necessarily agree with you that it is all probability, there are clearly events that influence and the market, and there are frequently repeating patterns that can be used to your advantage.

You could definitely beat the odds with knowledge while trading, which is definitely not possible if it was all based on odds. Remember, more than half of retail traders lose money, while experts can win in nearly any market—that doesn't sound like it's probabilistic to me.

It is still probability. It is just like someone that says he knows that is what the outcome of result will be after match ended. There are repeating pattern but you cannot be sure maybe the pattern will repeat itself so you look for the best scenario which is what the op is saying. Event influence price as well but you should also know that events sometimes might go anyway. Such is the case of the halving that just past

[Ryker1]

Well, on my mind own, trading that based on high probability is a very crucial step when you are in trading. There is no guarantee to make a profit, it is a sort of win or not that you are willing to risk. Perhaps a high percentage that maybe you are losing even how pro you are in trading. The market price movement will remain an unpredictable way. Perhaps we think that trading and gambling are the same things that we based on our luck.
Indeed, you are wrong, you can provide indicators and make your own analysis while predicting the market movement.

[bitgolden]

Trading is based on probability and permutation and due to this reason we are able to apply mathematical formula into it to predict its future. If trading is not at all based any of mathematical thing, then we cannot get into any strategies to analyze it. I mean being based on probability is not a week point of trading. It is a hidden advantage for the people who want to make use of technical analysis.

Technical analysis helps people to foresee the market movements but it will not get us 100$ accurate things because the basic oscillation of market is probability based which means on what direction most traders are riding, market will move on that direction.

Well, not everything in life is 100% probability, there are things that are certain in life. However when it comes to trading, of course probability will play a role, what did people think? Did anyone really considers that there is a way that trading could be predicted? It could do the same things over and over again? It would have a pattern that allowed everyone to move ahead?

If trading wasn't probability and if it was something certain I can tell you that we would basically all be doing that thing and would make a profit every single day, who wouldn't do something that would make you rich? I do not know any single person who wouldn't do that. It means it is all probability and "probably" it will fail, not all the time obviously since we also make a profit as well, but it will fail time to time.

[spike420211]

In general, yes. Success of a trader determines the number of successful transactions.

Each transaction is based on a specific set of data by which the trader can guess where the trend will go.
However, data is always not enough to have 100% probability, so often traders face losses that minimize through the use of stop loss.

[Oceat]

In general, yes. Success of a trader determines the number of successful transactions.

Each transaction is based on a specific set of data by which the trader can guess where the trend will go.
However, data is always not enough to have 100% probability, so often traders face losses that minimize through the use of stop loss.

I do agree with you and yes, in general, the more successful transactions determines how the traders pave its way. But, don't forget that before he attain that level he had suffered more losses before and that proves that there's no 100% certainty in life. This is just a hard work pays off at the end of the day.

Newbies basically have a small percentage of gaining profit or probably down to zero since they don't have experience in trading yet. The more you have a successful transactions in trading the more you gain an experience that you can use in the future.

[nelson4lov]

In addition to what users have said on the thread, I'd like to chip in a thing or two.

You might think that trading results and performance is actually based on probability. But you've to understand that a lot goes into it. You certainly can't compared a beginning trader (even though they've a false positive steak) with a trader who has plenty years of experience and a wealth of trading knowledge up their sleeves. That increases the odds to a great percentage. In life, everything doesn't always go as planned (the exact reason why there's a plan B or more). Experienced traders understand this and then use their knowledge to increase their chances to win each trade.

[htsy585]

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

You are right, probability will always come into crypto trading because a lot of factor are responsible for crypto price movement which guide the output of trading yields. It is quite understandable that the force of demand and supply as well contributes greatly to crypto price movement but a lot of other unforeseen factors contributes to the force of demand and supply that's why every trader at some point have to the some probability work

[suzanne5223]

Newbies basically have a small percentage of gaining profit or probably down to zero since they don't have experience in trading yet.

Agreed that newbies have few chance of making profit in trading particularly in this current market which some experienced traders make loss sometime.

The more you have a successful transactions in trading the more you gain an experience that you can use in the future.

No, because the last time i checked people learn through mistakes and there no way a trader will improve more than his previous experience if he didn't make a mistake that leads to his loss.
Successful trade is not the venue to gain experience.

[Twentyonepaylots]

In general, yes. Success of a trader determines the number of successful transactions.

Seeing a lot of successful trade of a trader does not define probability in any direction. Literally we can't set a probability on that one.

Each transaction is based on a specific set of data by which the trader can guess where the trend will go.
However, data is always not enough to have 100% probability, so often traders face losses that minimize through the use of stop loss.

This isn't the probability that you define above. Yes, there is a probability of a trade, it's always 1/2 just like a true of false question, will I win this trade? win or lose. The probability is way farther, let's just call it prediction, all of us predict the prices coz there's no way that any one of us really knows where the next price is going and that's how the market get its value. But these days?  I think what we need to do to be able to win a trade is to catch a luck, market is too wild and volatile especially in futures trading, I always lose at it.

[pawanjain]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

A coin has two sides. When you flip it there is 50% probability for it to land on the side you were wishing for.
Similarly when you trade there is a certain % of probability that you will make profits.
It doesn't always have to go as you wanted. Things do turn up to go the other way around.

But there are many factors which we can analyse and make our prediction which will help us to get the near accurate prediction.
Though the rest is based on probability there are factors which can help us improve our probability of getting profits and that is what a real trader does.

[reliable]

trading can not be separated from the probability...
each trader makes a decision from deep analysis and then produces a probability, and every decision to sell, buy, or hodl will greatly affect the assets of the trader. many people think trading is not much different from gambling but they don't understand that gambling is a guess that requires luck to win.

Trading cannot be compared to gambling because of many reasons. Though in trading as well we do require luck as well because at times after being buying/selling something and later on some news comes you may miss out by just seconds and that decision can go wrong based on the news which appeared later. But surely trading required lot of knowledge, understating of the market situation, analysis and based on technical and fundamental people would be trading it.

[Freddy11]

Trading is indeed a great business but in order to get real profits from it, we need to work hard with planning. I find it super easy through FreshForex broker, where they help a lot having low spreads, high leverage, bonuses and various such stuff. I love their Rebate Program the most to help me trade smoothly.

[BitcoinTurk]

Trading, of course, depends on some possibilities. But we should not forget that trading is based on knowledge and experience more than possibilities. In fact, it can be evaluated both as an experience and as a special talent in estimating these possibilities we mentioned while trading. For this reason, I think it would be better to claim that both are actually connected, instead of claiming that trade depends on possibilities and possibilities. It is also necessary to anticipate these possibilities in order to trade well and successfully, in which case it requires experience.

[Nellayar]

trading can not be separated from the probability...
each trader makes a decision from deep analysis and then produces a probability, and every decision to sell, buy, or hodl will greatly affect the assets of the trader. many people think trading is not much different from gambling but they don't understand that gambling is a guess that requires luck to win.

Trading cannot be compared to gambling because of many reasons. Though in trading as well we do require luck as well because at times after being buying/selling something and later on some news comes you may miss out by just seconds and that decision can go wrong based on the news which appeared later. But surely trading required lot of knowledge, understating of the market situation, analysis and based on technical and fundamental people would be trading it.

Aside from that, you must have the ability to hear gossips/signals. I don`t believe that trading is based in probability since whales manipulate the market. Yes, sometimes the market is your friend but many times it is your enemy. If we want an easy money, gambling is the best way to make it. Easy yet risky. But if we want an investment assurance, we should learn how to trade using our own analysis.