⚽ Bitcointalk ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread

[slaman29]

Shall we take a brief break from the hate and return to La Liga? 
Bookmakers have once again raised Barcelona's title odds (and quite rightly so, I might add):

Barcelona - 1.40

Real Madrid - 3.00

Atletico Madrid - 21.00

As a result, Real's quotes have reached 3, which is an interesting level for me. I would probably start building my position here now (not necessarily to wait until the end of the season, I’m just sure that there will be an opportunity to sell the bet more profitably), but there’s a game ahead against Atletico, which exists to harm Real. Fear and greed are battling it out inside me here: if points are dropped against Atlético, the odds on Real will become even more attractive.

Replying to this post but I read your other posts too, very interesting proposition to get an outright and then wait for the market to see if it is correct and if not, sell the position.

Is it always possible to sell all your shares (I'm assuming you're talking about prediction market shares), just wondering if there's always willing buyers.

[Trofo]

This pool is now closed, no sponsors this season so we are having fun old fashioned way Let's show them what they missed.

We have 15 mBTC for rewards, I am proposing following distribution, feel free to add your opinions. I will lock everything and update OP during next week.
1. 8 mBTC
2. 4 mBTC
3. 2 mBTC

Highest yellow cap - 1 mBTC

Also we can drop highest yellow cap, but that is something we can all play for even if we have terrible season.

Pool is now closed. There is 16 of us so we have 1 mBTC more for rewards. I boosted yellow cap to make it more interesting to all of us. These are final rewards for this sponsor-less season

1. 8 mBTC
2. 4 mBTC
3. 2 mBTC

Highest yellow cap - 2 mBTC

[paco92x]

Pool is now closed. There is 16 of us so we have 1 mBTC more for rewards. I boosted yellow cap to make it more interesting to all of us. These are final rewards for this sponsor-less season

1. 8 mBTC
2. 4 mBTC
3. 2 mBTC

Highest yellow cap - 2 mBTC

Thank you, Trofo, for the information. But this is something that will not affect me, because I don't see myself ever being anywhere near the main prize pool. I'm more of a “secure division status” kind of guy (12th–13th place). Not that we have that here, but I'm just saying what position I see myself fighting for.

[KTChampions]

Shall we take a brief break from the hate and return to La Liga? 
Bookmakers have once again raised Barcelona's title odds (and quite rightly so, I might add):

Barcelona - 1.40

Real Madrid - 3.00

Atletico Madrid - 21.00

As a result, Real's quotes have reached 3, which is an interesting level for me. I would probably start building my position here now (not necessarily to wait until the end of the season, I’m just sure that there will be an opportunity to sell the bet more profitably), but there’s a game ahead against Atletico, which exists to harm Real. Fear and greed are battling it out inside me here: if points are dropped against Atlético, the odds on Real will become even more attractive.

Replying to this post but I read your other posts too, very interesting proposition to get an outright and then wait for the market to see if it is correct and if not, sell the position.

Is it always possible to sell all your shares (I'm assuming you're talking about prediction market shares), just wondering if there's always willing buyers.

Of course, there are those who want to, and for such events, liquidity is always high and the spread is small. Unless you're a high roller with tens of thousands of dollars in a position, there's nothing to worry about. Naturally, however, if events unfold contrary to your predictions, the odds will also move against you, and you will have to sell at a loss. Yesterday, the odds on Arsenal winning the title plummeted right after the first half, even though, theoretically, they could have staged a comeback. I hope this doesn't happen again with Real today 

[KTChampions]

Hey, slaman29!

Why are you pinging me here? I’d like to forget about the La Liga topic for a while     hopefully, the international break will help with that.
Well, okay, I won’t be dramatic, for me, sports in the sense of "rooting" takes up a very small part of my life, after all, I’m an adult with a family.

Let’s get back to the math: right now, Barcelona is priced at 1.25, while Real is at 5.1. I'll be very brave, of course, but I'll still say: it can't get any worse. So, I’m going to try to build a position, I’ve just placed a buy order for the Real title at 18 cents, let’s see how it fills.

[slaman29]

Sorry @KTChampions final ping then

I actually gave up trading Bitcoin several years ago but this really speaks to my instincts lol

I know I should try it myself but for fear of addiction again, it was very hard to leave trading, I probably should not try.

I can imagine already buying shares for Arsenal title pre-season and then selling it as they win, or even live selling as soon as Brighton scored a goal, and buying back again after the big loss since for me this team's too good and one loss isn't everything.

GL with Real! I honestly think people are underrating them.

[paco92x]

7.5 points in Round 7 — superb prediction instinct from me. At least I didn't lie about where I would end up (13th position). Hopefully this 3-week pause from serious football will come in handy and I can reset my awful picking skills.

Real with another defeat — is this officially over for this season, as Barca has already gone to +6 points? Or will the Madridistas (if we have any here) deny it?

[KTChampions]

Sorry @KTChampions final ping then

I actually gave up trading Bitcoin several years ago but this really speaks to my instincts lol

I know I should try it myself but for fear of addiction again, it was very hard to leave trading, I probably should not try.

I can imagine already buying shares for Arsenal title pre-season and then selling it as they win, or even live selling as soon as Brighton scored a goal, and buying back again after the big loss since for me this team's too good and one loss isn't everything.

GL with Real! I honestly think people are underrating them.

I understand you perfectly (even though I’ve never traded seriously myself) and am glad you’re looking at everything rationally. It amuses me when people treat betting as gambling, but at the same time they themselves are engaged in traditional trading (stocks or currencies), often intraday, and think that they are doing a serious business and are not gamblers at all 
It’s funny that my order has been sitting there since yesterday without a single share being bought, the equilibrium price has probably been reached, and all attention has shifted to the national team matches:

[slaman29]

I understand you perfectly (even though I’ve never traded seriously myself) and am glad you’re looking at everything rationally. It amuses me when people treat betting as gambling, but at the same time they themselves are engaged in traditional trading (stocks or currencies), often intraday, and think that they are doing a serious business and are not gamblers at all 
It’s funny that my order has been sitting there since yesterday without a single share being bought, the equilibrium price has probably been reached, and all attention has shifted to the national team matches:

Without trying to kiss ass I have to say there are a few people in this gambling section who talk about value but even less people in that subset who really prove with evidence that there is value and you are one of them

Believe me, I was a trader for >10 years even before I heard about Bitcoin and already I recognized that myself I had some gambling instincts in the trade, and most 'traders' were dressing up their bets with the TA rather than the TA informing their trades. But most people don't, despite falling into debt and borrowing money, and living like peasants to fund their trading addiction.

Even realizing this and doing my best to trade properly (and not intraday even) I gave it up. At least with gambling I am fully aware I'm getting ripped off and can still rationally find value in bets either in sports or in casino promos where the House Edge vs Promo Bonus is very clear and mathematically proven.

Staying away from Prediction Market shares for now but I appreciate seeing people like you talking about them rationally I wonder even actually why nobody created markets yet for player goals and ratings, now that would be seriously massive with Fantasy!

[Luzin]

Let’s get back to the math: right now, Barcelona is priced at 1.25, while Real is at 5.1. I'll be very brave, of course, but I'll still say: it can't get any worse. So, I’m going to try to build a position, I’ve just placed a buy order for the Real title at 18 cents, let’s see how it fills.

Barcelona is the favorite and I agree. So I think betting on Barcelona might be a realistic decision. Barcelona still remains the perfect favorite without defeat. Madrid has had an uneven match performance; the loss to Atletico temporarily dragged them out of the competition zone. Indeed, there were some controversial moments during the Madrid vs Atletico match. I even read that the referee leading the match has now been suspended due to several mistakes he made in El Clasico.