⚽ Bitcointalk ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread

[KTChampions]

I'm getting lower in the LaLiga pool, it's a tough challenge for the first time to be here... the others have far surpassed him and I don't think it's possible to pursue them either.

KTChampions... the only person who believed Real Madrid would win was proved they won at Camp Nou.
~

  Indeed, haha! Moreover, all the participants except me expected Barcelona to score no less than 2 goals, and 11 that no less than 3! Hahaha, talk about underestimating Real Madrid! Now I see why the bookmakers were so generous with their odds - the cash flow perfectly mirrored those expectations. It’s clear that in a pool-betting scenario, perhaps one should have backed Barcelona, ​​but in terms of straight cash betting, Real Madrid was the only logical choice yesterday.

slaman29, thanks to this result, my position on Polymarket (that Real will win the title) has already moved into profit.

[LTU_btc]

Didn't wrote anything yesterday as game ended late. First of all, congrats to Real fans, it was deserved win. Like I had fears before games with PSG and Real that they will return us to reality. And it happened. Flashbacks to previous seasons. I still didn't changed my mind about defending La Liga title, but I'm sceptical about our chances in CL. It's enough to face Real, PSG or Bayern and all our weak sides becomes clearly visible.
What I can say, Mourinho still got it.

[paco92x]

It was a good El Clásico, had some feeling that Mourinho would flop in his first Clásico and even made a bet with 5:1 for Barcelona, but when the match started it already looked much different than I hoped it would. Mourinho did his magic, Real finally held their heads high after a clash with Barça especially at Camp Nou, I can't even remember when they won the last time.

[YOSHIE]

~~~

Your own Real Madrid vs. Barcelona over Real Madrid's 1-2 victory proves to extend Mourinho's impressive record in consecutive El Clásico matches, as we can see currently, Mourinho has become a hot topic of media contention and discussion on social media at the moment, I also think that what Real Madrid has achieved now cannot be separated from Mbappé's role as a goal-scoring hero.

This season's football matches have proven Real Madrid's tenacity in matches such as the Real Madrid vs. Leipzig's score (4-1), Sevilla's score (4-1) and Roma's score (3-4) were all beaten by Real Madrid, there was no goal that was not scored by Mbappé in all matches.

[slaman29]

@KTChampions congrats to you and congrats to Mourinho for ensuring that this season makes an exciting view. Personally not happy of course but I think for the sake of it all it was good we didn't trash Real.

Sorry to teams who have to find tough life in Copa del Rey, like Espanyol who lost their coach after losing the most unimaginable way

[slaman29]

Well, Mourinho has made it 6 wins in a row now, including by breaking our own hot streak, but we'll return to Champions League again so am hopeful that the next round can be broken. Just really surprised actually that Atleti is somehow 1 point ahead of them

This is I guess what they call a proper season start!!

Oh and @KTChampions looks like will win this round again.

[KTChampions]

Well, Mourinho has made it 6 wins in a row now, including by breaking our own hot streak, but we'll return to Champions League again so am hopeful that the next round can be broken. Just really surprised actually that Atleti is somehow 1 point ahead of them

This is I guess what they call a proper season start!!

Oh and @KTChampions looks like will win this round again.

Do you remember that in the next round Atlético plays Barcelona, ​​while Real has an easy away game in Valencia? Given that Atlético almost always easily hands points to Barcelona, ​​they will drop to third place after the next round. I think this is exactly how we’ll head into the break for national team matches.
As for the Champions League, Atlético, Villarreal, and Betis face tough opponents: Bayern, PSG, and Dortmund, respectively
And Real and Barcelona will get to take it easy in some of their lighter matches. Justice!

[paco92x]

Do you remember that in the next round Atlético plays Barcelona, ​​while Real has an easy away game in Valencia? Given that Atlético almost always easily hands points to Barcelona, ​​they will drop to third place after the next round. I think this is exactly how we’ll head into the break for national team matches.

Maybe Atletico surprises Barca this time and miraculously ends up on top of La Liga before the break. I'm just kidding, it can happen but having Bayern at home a few days earlier and the derby against Barca, I predict that they will face two defeats in a short period. But honestly, surprised to see Atletico still around the top spot; I don't know who they play this season, but they have a 9-game streak of not losing.

[KTChampions]

Do you remember that in the next round Atlético plays Barcelona, ​​while Real has an easy away game in Valencia? Given that Atlético almost always easily hands points to Barcelona, ​​they will drop to third place after the next round. I think this is exactly how we’ll head into the break for national team matches.

Maybe Atletico surprises Barca this time and miraculously ends up on top of La Liga before the break. I'm just kidding, it can happen but having Bayern at home a few days earlier and the derby against Barca, I predict that they will face two defeats in a short period. But honestly, surprised to see Atletico still around the top spot; I don't know who they play this season, but they have a 9-game streak of not losing.

It's possible, but everyone has already gotten used to the fact that Atletico doesn't pose any threat and simply falls apart in serious moments. It will be interesting to see what Simeone prioritizes right now: on one hand, La Liga matches are more important as they impact the entire season, on the other, Atlético has only 4 points in the Champions League, so they’ll want to at least avoid a defeat - which will be difficult, given that Bayern has 5 points. I don’t know if this will amount to two defeats, but if it does, it will be a major psychological blow for them.

[KTChampions]

A serious question for professionals, so let’s discuss it here. The odds for the Atlético vs. Barcelona match are currently as follows:

3.70 - 4.30 - 1.82

Roughly speaking, the odds of Barcelona losing the top spot to two other teams simultaneously are 3.70, while the odds of them retaining the lead but seeing their chances significantly diminish (in the event of a draw) are 4.30 - combined, this equates to 1.90 (for an Atlético Double Chance outcome), which, after accounting for the margin, represents nearly a 50% probability. At odds of 1.82, nothing changes, as Real Madrid is expected to win in Valencia, and the situation for the two main favorites remains the same.

Title odds for Barcelona are priced at 68 cents for Yes and 33 cents for No. In the usual format, this is 1.47 for Yes, 3.03 for No.
So, I assume that it makes sense to buy No quotes, since in the case of an unsuccessful outcome (50% probability) they should rise in price significantly, and in the case of a successful outcome, they should remain the same or fall in price by an insignificant amount. So EV = hard positive.

A more complex option (which I haven’t calculated): place a bet on Barcelona at 1.82 and hedge by betting "No" on them winning the title.
It is necessary to choose the volumes correctly, since it is obvious that 33 cents will never grow stronger than a straight hedge (Atletico Double Chance), but unlike a straight hedge, this one is almost free.

Thoughts?

[slaman29]

A serious question for professionals, so let’s discuss it here. The odds for the Atlético vs. Barcelona match are currently as follows:

3.70 - 4.30 - 1.82

Roughly speaking, the odds of Barcelona losing the top spot to two other teams simultaneously are 3.70, while the odds of them retaining the lead but seeing their chances significantly diminish (in the event of a draw) are 4.30 - combined, this equates to 1.90 (for an Atlético Double Chance outcome), which, after accounting for the margin, represents nearly a 50% probability. At odds of 1.82, nothing changes, as Real Madrid is expected to win in Valencia, and the situation for the two main favorites remains the same.

Title odds for Barcelona are priced at 68 cents for Yes and 33 cents for No. In the usual format, this is 1.47 for Yes, 3.03 for No.
So, I assume that it makes sense to buy No quotes, since in the case of an unsuccessful outcome (50% probability) they should rise in price significantly, and in the case of a successful outcome, they should remain the same or fall in price by an insignificant amount. So EV = hard positive.

A more complex option (which I haven’t calculated): place a bet on Barcelona at 1.82 and hedge by betting "No" on them winning the title.
It is necessary to choose the volumes correctly, since it is obvious that 33 cents will never grow stronger than a straight hedge (Atletico Double Chance), but unlike a straight hedge, this one is almost free.

Thoughts?

Another excellent way of explaining the odds, and if this was roulette I would immediately say 'the wheel forgets the last roll' but this is sports and the last results absolutely matters

Some things for me to consider in this match. So Barca does not want to lose, they will do everything to stop it, and Simeone also said after losing to Bayern that his team is simply not good enough. This mentality only works when he had players like Suarez, his current team I think actually will be negatively affected also. This actually makes me think a draw is something both feel is beneficial, as both will feel Real has chances of dropping points to other teams that Atleti and Barca will do less.

So my play is no bet, but to double chance Atleti as soon as Barca scores.

About title chance, are you sure No rises significantly if Barca doesn't win? I need to really spend some time here one day because I feel like I'm missing out

[KTChampions]

~
About title chance, are you sure No rises significantly if Barca doesn't win? I need to really spend some time here one day because I feel like I'm missing out

I can’t give you a straightforward answer, because, as you rightly noted, what we have here isn’t roulette - it’s a combination of mathematical side and the opinion of the crowd.

In terms of the purely mathematical side of things, we are now heading into the 12th round out of 38, and it’s blindingly obvious that no single outcome should significantly shift the range of possibilities.
I'm looking forward to a potential shift in crowd opinion. For starters, I believe the current odds are distorted, while Barcelona is playing with flair and conviction, that in no way justifies the notion that they have a 68% chance of securing the title - especially with two challengers close behind, where a single poor performance could see Barcelona drop all the way to third place. In other words, the first factor is that there is room for price movements within the existing figures.

What happens if Atlético wins? Looking at the math: how can they have a 68% chance of winning the title if, for crying out loud, they’re dropping to third place? What will the public sentiment be like if Atlético wins? It seems to me that everyone would then realize that three defeats in three major matches is a bad sign, and Barcelona would no longer be so overvalued - meaning the implied probabilities would shift from 68% down to, say, 55-60%. For the "No" outcome, this would be equivalent to a move from 33% to 40-45%, which translates to profit of 21%-36% (for my bet on No).
On one hand, it’s not much, on the other, it’s perfectly normal - even if Barcelona were to win 10-0, the crowd's spirits won't rise much higher, as they are already in the heavens which means the bet on "No" won't lose much of its value.

In terms of emotional stakes, the upcoming match falls into one of two categories: either a massive disappointment for Barcelona, ​​or a "things going exactly as expected" scenario. I see a significant imbalance in this assessment, which creates an opportunity to profit. Given that Barcelona is highly likely to win, we’ll be able to see in practice just how much their odds, currently sitting at a 68% implied probability, actually shift. I would be very surprised if they surged significantly, rather than just nudging up by a couple of percentage points.

[cryptofrka]

A serious question for professionals, so let’s discuss it here. The odds for the Atlético vs. Barcelona match are currently as follows:

3.70 - 4.30 - 1.82

Roughly speaking, the odds of Barcelona losing the top spot to two other teams simultaneously are 3.70, while the odds of them retaining the lead but seeing their chances significantly diminish (in the event of a draw) are 4.30 - combined, this equates to 1.90 (for an Atlético Double Chance outcome), which, after accounting for the margin, represents nearly a 50% probability. At odds of 1.82, nothing changes, as Real Madrid is expected to win in Valencia, and the situation for the two main favorites remains the same.

Title odds for Barcelona are priced at 68 cents for Yes and 33 cents for No. In the usual format, this is 1.47 for Yes, 3.03 for No.
So, I assume that it makes sense to buy No quotes, since in the case of an unsuccessful outcome (50% probability) they should rise in price significantly, and in the case of a successful outcome, they should remain the same or fall in price by an insignificant amount. So EV = hard positive.

A more complex option (which I haven’t calculated): place a bet on Barcelona at 1.82 and hedge by betting "No" on them winning the title.
It is necessary to choose the volumes correctly, since it is obvious that 33 cents will never grow stronger than a straight hedge (Atletico Double Chance), but unlike a straight hedge, this one is almost free.

Thoughts?

Did you study how much the odds change after an outcome? I'd say the odds on Barcelona winning the title should not move by much if they lose on Sunday - I'd still consider them as solid favorites for the title.
I'd actually say that I think this duel is already priced in - and in case of a Barcelona win the odds on them winning the title will drop, not remain the same.

To be honest, studying this approach (and hedging such bets) does seem like a long-term winning strategy. It would need to be heavily dependant on an AI swarm running all kinds of simulations though.

[KTChampions]

Did you study how much the odds change after an outcome? I'd say the odds on Barcelona winning the title should not move by much if they lose on Sunday - I'd still consider them as solid favorites for the title.
I'd actually say that I think this duel is already priced in - and in case of a Barcelona win the odds on them winning the title will drop, not remain the same.
~

You can view the history of price changes here
https://polymarket.com/event/laliga-2027-champion-20260701200737375/will-barcelona-win-the-2026-27-laliga-championship-20260701200737379
But it’s hardly relevant to this specific situation, it’s one thing when Real drops 3 points against Betis while Barcelona is thrashing everyone - in that case, the odds, which were initially close, shift significantly. It’s one thing when Barcelona and Real Madrid face each other directly (Barcelona’s odds dropped by 10% immediately following their defeat), and quite another when their rivalry continues indirectly through Atlético. I’m not sure how to compare points of "divergence" and "re-convergence" of probabilities, I don’t think it can be done directly, given the factors of crowd sentiment and the trend (even if only an apparent one).

~
To be honest, studying this approach (and hedging such bets) does seem like a long-term winning strategy. It would need to be heavily dependant on an AI swarm running all kinds of simulations though.

I don’t think it’s even about simulations, it’s that you need to use bots to trade - which is precisely why bots dominate on Polymarket. The smallest inefficiencies between multiple markets cannot be caught by hand.