MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’

[Free Market Capitalist]

I suppose that I don't really disagree with any of your analysis in any kind of strong way, since I have not been considering investing into MSTR and/or any of its products as compared with my ongoing happiness with the underlying...

So in that sense if I am happy with the underlying, then the only reason to play around with MSTR or any of its products would be to hedge my happiness.

You do seem to be doing the opposite of what a guy should do.. since this seems a better time to buy MSTR and its products..

Well, you mean it's better to buy low and sell high, of course I agree, but as I said, I'm more or less break even. We must also remember the market saying, “don't catch a falling knife.” The first time I bought MSTR, it was around $125 per share, and then I made two more purchases, so if I sell now, I'll be more or less the same.

You can look at the graph now and think it's cheap, but I don't know if the price of Bitcoin will go up or down next year. And if this year, with the price of Bitcoin flat, MSTR has fallen 40%, I don't want to imagine what could happen next year if the price of Bitcoin falls, no matter how much cash reserves the company adds. The market seems to have become skeptical about the possibility of Bitcoin treasury companies being able to achieve high mNAVs, and the same could happen with preferreds, no matter how much they add reserves (with MSTR's ATM at a low mNAV that continues to dilute shareholders).

 Do you have higher than 10% exposure to MSTR and MSTR products as compared with your bitcoin holdings?

Nope, you might not remember it but I remember having conversations with you in the sense that for an individual, this type of product only makes sense if you add a little leverage to your Bitcoin, but not a large percentage.

[Abelly]

I personally believe that nothing will happen. Chad Saylor will continue to be like Bitcoin, a Honey Badger surviving the bear cycles and prosper during bull cycles. He will continue to keep buying like Bitcoin will continue chugging along producing block after block.

I agree with you, there is nothing to be afraid of here. Sailor is just like Bitcoin's Honey Badger, no matter how rough the market is, the guy doesn't deviate from his thesis. He survives the bear market and comes back stronger in the bull run. Just as Bitcoin continues to move forward with blocks, Sailor will continue to accumulate more with his strategy. In my view, this is completely normal, nothing more will happen, this is the real picture!

[fillippone]

I personally believe that nothing will happen. Chad Saylor will continue to be like Bitcoin, a Honey Badger surviving the bear cycles and prosper during bull cycles. He will continue to keep buying like Bitcoin will continue chugging along producing block after block.

Strategy at the momenti is the weakest link.
Next big catalyst will be the decision by MSCI on January 15th about Strategy inclusion in the MSCI index.
Is this decision already priced in? Or there is still downside? Are the risk simmetrical?
This is the pivotal question when deciding to invest In Strategy.

[Ambatman]

Strategy at the momenti is the weakest link.
Next big catalyst will be the decision by MSCI on January 15th about Strategy inclusion in the MSCI index.
Is this decision already priced in? Or there is still downside? Are the risk simmetrical?
This is the pivotal question when deciding to invest In Strategy.

We might see same thing that happened with S&P 500
All this mean nothing in the short term if Bitcoin doesn't recover or perform better
Their performance and ability to meet certain standards requires Bitcoin.
Is good they are experiencing winter this early, if they can scale through and come out stronger
They won't experience such drastic fall if there's a bear market again.

[Cookdata]

I personally believe that nothing will happen. Chad Saylor will continue to be like Bitcoin, a Honey Badger surviving the bear cycles and prosper during bull cycles. He will continue to keep buying like Bitcoin will continue chugging along producing block after block.

I agree with you, there is nothing to be afraid of here. Sailor is just like Bitcoin's Honey Badger, no matter how rough the market is, the guy doesn't deviate from his thesis. He survives the bear market and comes back stronger in the bull run. Just as Bitcoin continues to move forward with blocks, Sailor will continue to accumulate more with his strategy. In my view, this is completely normal, nothing more will happen, this is the real picture!

He has survive all different bear market but this is the biggest amount of Bitcoin they have ever bought and I'm not talking about the quantity, I'm talking about the invested money. Some influencers were using his AI generated boat image to cause FUD the other day trying so hard to make Bitcoin hit the $70k as many assumed he is going to be liquidated but Saylor doesn't have any to be triggered, only debt available to pay and are not even closed yet.

If debtors don't pressure him there is no point no worries, I'm more confident that all repayment can be shift, it's a win for strategy to buy more and more interest for debtors I believe but strategy will have a higher cake if they sell some in the future.

[fillippone]

Strategy at the momenti is the weakest link.
Next big catalyst will be the decision by MSCI on January 15th about Strategy inclusion in the MSCI index.
Is this decision already priced in? Or there is still downside? Are the risk simmetrical?
This is the pivotal question when deciding to invest In Strategy.

We might see same thing that happened with S&P 500
All this mean nothing in the short term if Bitcoin doesn't recover or perform better
Their performance and ability to meet certain standards requires Bitcoin.
Is good they are experiencing winter this early, if they can scale through and come out stronger
They won't experience such drastic fall if there's a bear market again.

Being in this kind of index is important as it can be an important driver for buying pressure. A few billion of Strategy Market cap are inflows from passive buyers. Being thrown out of those indexes means that this buying pressure will be muted.
Of course this is going to impact Strategy shareholders, not bitcoin.

[rojan]

Strategy at the momenti is the weakest link.
Next big catalyst will be the decision by MSCI on January 15th about Strategy inclusion in the MSCI index.
Is this decision already priced in? Or there is still downside? Are the risk simmetrical?
This is the pivotal question when deciding to invest In Strategy.

We might see same thing that happened with S&P 500
All this mean nothing in the short term if Bitcoin doesn't recover or perform better
Their performance and ability to meet certain standards requires Bitcoin.
Is good they are experiencing winter this early, if they can scale through and come out stronger
They won't experience such drastic fall if there's a bear market again.

It is true that the success of MicroStrategy still heavily depends on the performance of Bitcoin. No matter the possible inclusion or index momentum, whether it is MSCI or index-related, the underlying risk is that their balance sheet approach is massively dependent on the long-term direction of BTC. In case Bitcoin bounces back and stays more successful than the traditional assets, the present slump would be regarded as the initial stress test that proved beneficial to the model. However, when BTC remains unstable over an extended time, the company will remain a target of entry-risk queries along with valuation strain. Being included in indices would add institutional liquidity, but it will not be the answer: Bitcoin has to continue growing to ensure the leveraged strategy by MicroStrategy is sustainable.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Strategy at the momenti is the weakest link.

I don't think so. The rest of the Bitcoin treasury companies are actually weaker, being the weakest one David Bailey's Nakamoto (NAKA):

Since bitcoin (BTC) treasury company mania peaked on May 12, David Bailey’s Nakamoto (NAKA) has been at the forefront of the industry’s subsequent decline.

The drop from $28.50 per share to yesterday’s close at $0.96, represents a 96% loss for shareholders since the opening bell of David Bailey’s deal.

Source: The spectacular collapse of David Bailey’s Nakamoto

I think it's important to highlight this because, with the success of Strategy's business model as it stood a year ago, companies began to spring up copying the model like mushrooms in a damp forest in autumn. But they all look the same today.

Next big catalyst will be the decision by MSCI on January 15th about Strategy inclusion in the MSCI index.
Is this decision already priced in? Or there is still downside? Are the risk simmetrical?

I think it's already priced in because markets tend to be based on expectations, but what happens after the decision, one way or another, will depend on how the price is doing at that point.

It is true that the success of MicroStrategy still heavily depends on the performance of Bitcoin.

Not only that, it depends on new money coming in to buy the products, which is easier when the price is higher. These companies do not have cash flow as such (in the case of Strategy, the cash flow from the software business is negligible compared to the total). The cash they obtain comes from selling their products (shares, preferred shares, bonds).

And to achieve that cash flow, the market has to believe that companies will be able to offer extra returns on a Bitcoin ETF, which is now in doubt. The controversy over the possible exclusion of MSTR and any company that has more than 50% of Bitcoin on its balance sheet from indices such as the MSCI seems to me to be more in line with the times than an attack, because today the market does not believe it.

[JayJuanGee]

I personally believe that nothing will happen. Chad Saylor will continue to be like Bitcoin, a Honey Badger surviving the bear cycles and prosper during bull cycles. He will continue to keep buying like Bitcoin will continue chugging along producing block after block.

I agree with you, there is nothing to be afraid of here. Sailor is just like Bitcoin's Honey Badger, no matter how rough the market is, the guy doesn't deviate from his thesis. He survive market and comes back stronger in the bull run. Just as Bitcoin continues to move forward with blocks, Sailor will continue to accumulate more with his strategy. In my view, this is completely normal, nothing more will happen, this is the real picture!

There is no need to put Saylor/MSTR on a pedestal. 

Through the years, they have had their screw ups, including but not limited to some of the ways that they buy bitcoin and manage their cash reserves versus  bitcoin investment choices, yet they likely understand the trade-offs.  Also they can be criticzed for their lack of appreciation for the various ways that bitcoin can be and should be held privately and transacted privately.
 
There are tradeoffs when trying to appeal to others to give them money so that they (MSTR) can buy bitcoin with other people's money.

MSTR/Saylor have been both admired and criticized for some of their tactics, talking points and even some of their blunders over the years.

[Free Market Capitalist]

MSTR/Saylor have been both admired and criticized for some of their tactics, talking points and even some of their blunders over the years.

It's clear that he's either crazy or a genius, and that leaves no one indifferent. In other words, he either has lovers or haters; few people are in the middle. Today, regardless of what may happen in the future, I believe he's more of a genius, because of the innovations he has introduced.

On the other hand, I'm curious to see this week's purchases, if there have been any. Given the current prices, there can only be ATMed STRF and I don't know if maybe some ATM of the common stock, which is at 1.16 mNAV, but it can't have been large amounts.

It is curious that only STRF has recovered, as it is the highest on the preference scale (in the event of a hypothetical bankruptcy, the first to be paid among the preferred holders would be the STRF holders). So, people are currently buying more of the product that is most similar to buying bitcoin, but through Strategy.

[Wind_FURY]

[edited out].

There's no need to react negatively, or to be annoyed by the question ser. I'm merely curious on what everyone's thoughts/insights/opinions are in the matter.

I personally believe that nothing will happen. Chad Saylor will continue to be like Bitcoin, a Honey Badger surviving the bear cycles and prosper during bull cycles. He will continue to keep buying like Bitcoin will continue chugging along producing block after block.

I don't have any problem with my already existing response.

Right now, you seem to be changing your tune, and saying that you did not really mean what you said.  I already responded to what I read the first time, which made it sound like you have it all figured out, and yeah, maybe you don't know how to frame your questions in such a way that you don't come off as a troll. 

Changing my tune?

Or maybe you're just being cynical?

You are now trying to suggest that you don't believe in such negative scenario as you had earlier posed, yet you had wanted to pose such a negative scenario anyhow and ask: "what if?"

Is there anything wrong with asking about people's opinions or discuss what their thoughts/insights are about a world where Bitcoin crashes down to near or under its 200-Weekly SMA and MSTR has a larger drawdown bring mNAV further down?

What are you afraid of?

[fillippone]

MSTR/Saylor have been both admired and criticized for some of their tactics, talking points and even some of their blunders over the years.

It's clear that he's either crazy or a genius, and that leaves no one indifferent. In other words, he either has lovers or haters; few people are in the middle. Today, regardless of what may happen in the future, I believe he's more of a genius, because of the innovations he has introduced.

I am a big fan of Saylor, of course, even if I don't always share the hubris of his statements.
I think he's not doing a good service to the cause when he states something like: "Sell your house and buy bitcoins". Not everyone can get the true sense of the message.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Changing my tune?

It is your style.

Or maybe you're just being cynical?

Hard to see my cynicism, to the extent it exists, as relevant.  You are probably reading too much into it, since I posted a response to your post.

You are now trying to suggest that you don't believe in such negative scenario as you had earlier posed, yet you had wanted to pose such a negative scenario anyhow and ask: "what if?"

Is there anything wrong with asking about people's opinions or discuss what their thoughts/insights are about a world where Bitcoin crashes down to near or under its 200-Weekly SMA and MSTR has a larger drawdown bring mNAV further down?

What are you afraid of?

Of course all kinds of BTC price movements are possible, and some BTC price movements are more likely than other things and we do not know the future in advance, even though this time, you are hoping to be different than your past fails, since you are hoping that your ongoing bet on down will pay off, this time.. .yet even if you end up being successful this time, your ongoing betting on down still is not going to make up for your ongoing and extensive whimpiness in regards to your bitcoin preparations and your ongoing failures/refusals to sufficiently prepare for up.  

You already know that in regards to bitcoin, I personally consider it to be way better to be ongoingly preparing for up rather than preparing for down's that might not happen... especially for the newer bitcoiners, and of course, the longer that we are in bitcoin, then the size of the bitcoin stash that we already accumulated can start to affect how we manage our bitcoin holdings as compared with other assets that we might be invested into.  So if you end up getting lucky with your bet on down this time, you might start to believe preparing for down is a good thing, which seems like a wrong conclusion and ongoingly betting on down has not worked out for you since you did not start preparing for up until 2019, even though you would have likely been way better off to have had started preparing for up in 2016.. .. so your ongoing error of preparing for down rather than up might come true once in a while, but it does not make your practice and perspective a good one, even though now that the bitcoin price is seeming to trend down, you seem to be wanting to get a reward for such.  I am not going to give such reward to you.

In the end, guys can do what they like in terms of their own bitcoin holdings, their preparations and how they might build up bitcoin in their holdings, especially guys in their 1st cycle or two.  You have already had nearly 10 years in bitcoin, and you likely don't have close to as many bitcoin as you could have had if you had stayed focused on building your stash rather than ongoingly waiting for down that ended up not happening as much as you would have had preferred based on your own ongoing lack of preparedness for up..

Even if we look at your forum registration date and if we had imagined an ability to invest $50 per week over 9 years, then you might have had invested close to $24k and accumulated 5.2 BTC.. which surely would be a good place to be, yet I doubt that whatever fucking around preparing for down (that did not happen) ended up helping to get you to a level of performance that would have had been even close to a regular and persistent DCA approach to bitcoin... and then you don't have to fuck around trying to figure out if a dip to the 200-WMA might happen or not.  You might even start to prefer that BTC prices go up, rather than ongoingly hoping for down that may or may not end up happening (you can plug the dates and DCA amounts into this website: https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/dollar-cost-averaging-calculator)

I still think that right now, it is too early to call a bear market, yet a lot of stagnation below $100k (even below $95k) is not helping any scenario to proclaim that we are still in a bull market... Surely three more weeks in the calendar year so interesting to see how the last three weeks play out.. and if we might still be below $100k (or even below $95k) for the remainder of the calendar year.

Since MSTR has has hinged so much of itself on bitcoin, it's behaviors and it's performance ends up affecting how bitcoin performs, even though they are not the same thing... so yeah, it can be interesting to see how much MSTR prices might diverge from BTC spot prices.. and we have frequently found guys aspiring for lower BTC prices, even during periods that they should be buying, just like you were doing in mid-2023 when we were in the upper $20ks, you were so excitedly waiting for lower $20ks that did not end up happening, so you are again getting excited for down that might not happen... and so yeah, this time might be different so that you can buy some cheaper coins, and perhaps you will not be able to?  

On individual levels, it tends to be a good idea and plan to keep buying bitcoin (especially for guys who are still in their early bitcoin accumulation stages), since we can never  know if the price will continue to go down, and beginner guys might not be hurt if the BTC price continues to go down in the short-to-medium term as much as they might end up getting hurt if they fail/refuse to sufficiently prepare for up..... especially if they are investing rather than trading.. so if they have a 4-10 year timeline or longer, than ongoing accumulation of BTC has tended to be a good plan and practice, and even though bitcoin's past performance does not foretell it's future performance, there is no real sign that bitcoin's investment thesis is getting weaker (rather than stronger), especially for guys who might be looking at investing into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer.

[Bluedrem]

Since MSTR has has hinged so much of itself on bitcoin, it's behaviors and it's performance ends up affecting how bitcoin performs, even though they are not the same thing... so yeah, it can be interesting to see how much MSTR prices might diverge from BTC spot prices.. and we have frequently found guys aspiring for lower BTC prices, even during periods that they should be buying, just like you were doing in mid-2023 when we were in the upper $20ks, you were so excitedly waiting for lower $20ks that did not end up happening, so you are again getting excited for down that might not happen... and so yeah, this time might be different so that you can buy some cheaper coins, and perhaps you will not be able to? 

The most interesting thing is that those who do not want to discount their wealth in Bitcoin at all, that is, those who want to buy Bitcoin at all prices, can never do it. Because when the price is low, they think that its price will decrease further and they will buy it then, but if the price increases or starts to increase, they do not start buying, they wait for the price to decrease again, thus their investment in Bitcoin does not become profitable. But the thing to come and what has been happening so far and will continue to happen in the future is that Bitcoin is an investment system that investors will benefit if they buy it at any price for the long term. For example, those who bought Bitcoin at the highest price in 2021 and held it until 2025 have been able to make a profit from all their Bitcoins at the present time, whereas in 2022-23, if we consider the value of their saved Bitcoins against the dollar, they were in several times the loss. On the other hand, those who buy Bitcoin in DCA do not need to worry about the price falling or rising, they should invest in Bitcoin at the moment they have discretionary income. In addition, if someone wants to buy Bitcoin in DIP, they should not wait to buy in DIP by closing DCA. What they can do is to create a separate fund to buy in DIP along with the purchase of DCA.
If we look at MSTR, we can see that they have continued to buy DCA throughout the year, but even after buying Bitcoin at the highest price, the average price of their Bitcoin is much lower than the current price, meaning they are still in profit.

[JayJuanGee]

Since MSTR has has hinged so much of itself on bitcoin, it's behaviors and it's performance ends up affecting how bitcoin performs, even though they are not the same thing... so yeah, it can be interesting to see how much MSTR prices might diverge from BTC spot prices.. and we have frequently found guys aspiring for lower BTC prices, even during periods that they should be buying, just like you were doing in mid-2023 when we were in the upper $20ks, you were so excitedly waiting for lower $20ks that did not end up happening, so you are again getting excited for down that might not happen... and so yeah, this time might be different so that you can buy some cheaper coins, and perhaps you will not be able to? 

The most interesting thing is that those who do not want to discount their wealth in Bitcoin at all, that is, those who want to buy Bitcoin at all prices, can never do it. Because when the price is low, they think that its price will decrease further and they will buy it then, but if the price increases or starts to increase, they do not start buying, they wait for the price to decrease again, thus their investment in Bitcoin does not become profitable.

There is something that is wrong (or at least has been in bitcoin) to wait for the BTC price to drop, and surely one of the things that Saylor (MSTR) has taught is to buy bitcoin at all prices and any prices, even though Saylor took it a bit to the opposite extreme.

In the case of Wind_FURY, he continues to brag about his ideas of buying the dip, yet he seems to not to be able to see that his ideation has gotten in the way of his stacking sats, and he would have had been way better off to have had stacked more sats (even if the cost per sat would have had been higher) than to be waiting for bargain prices.  

So in mid-to-late 2023, we spent a lot of time bouncing between about $25k and $32k, and there were so many guys (including Wind_FURY) speculating that the BTC price was going to go down to $20k or below $20k (again), and so many of them could not recognize and appreciate that buying bitcoin at that time would have had been much better than waiting for prices that may or may not happen.

Sure, there were many of us who had been buying bitcoin throughout that time-period including whenever we got new money come in, then we would just buy with what we had, and even the year before some of us ran out of money when BTC prices dropped below $20k in mid-2022 and even spent a lot of time below $20k for the second half of 2022, so even when we recovered to above $20k in early 2023, we had another short bounce below $20k in early 2023, so then there were so many guys still wanting the BTC price to drop below $20k again in mid-to-late 2023, and so at a certain point, maybe those guys could have had appreciated that they were already getting quite great bargains, and bitcoin had never spent so much time at or below the 200-WMA, and so even though the 200-WMA was at $22k in June 2022, it had gotten up to $2k in October 2023,

and so prices were still largely at bargain prices, but some guys like Wind_FURY still wanted lower prices and he was even proclaiming that he was waiting for lower prices, which surely would have had been a mistake, even though surely guys on the forum don't know the exact details... except to be saying that it is a bad idea to keep waiting for dips rather than buying BTC regularly and perhaps even aggressively buying during those kinds of times.  I can understand the fear, since I am not claiming to have had known for sure that the BTC price was not going to dip again.. but at some point we have to prepare for up.. and many of us longer term bitcoiners are mostly biased in our preparations towards up, anyhow.  Some guys, like Wind_FURY are ongoingly hedging towards down, so then he gets more cocky during these down periods, and even though he is cocky, he is likely still too greedy since he is ongoingly waiting for more down that might or may not end up happening.

Many of us are in a forum like this and we are largely interested in accumulating bitcoin and even biasing ourselves in favor of up, so down periods can be a bit painful and even sometimes we are running out of money to keep buying BTC, too.

But the thing to come and what has been happening so far and will continue to happen in the future is that Bitcoin is an investment system that investors will benefit if they buy it at any price for the long term.

Surely it can sometimes be difficult to see that many of us are likely advantaged when we spend our earliest years in bitcoin stacking and biasing our investment portfolios in favor of bitcoin going up, yet at the same time it can be a painful process to build up the bitcoin holdings and the various ups and downs along the way.. and yeah, some guys do end up taking more than a whole cycle and some guys might take more than 2 cycles to really build up their bitcoin stash size... which usually is better to just be plodding away with BTC prices at any level, and then later down the road when you might be slowing down in your accumulation, you had already done most of your BTC accumulating a cycle or more earlier... so even guys who mostly stacked prior to 2021, they are likely feeling pretty good with average BTC prices that might be anywhere between $3k and $15k per coin.. but the fact that they were able to do most of their stacking prior to 2020, they mostly are in good shape, and it may not even matter so much at what prices they were buying their bitcoin.  Sure, there is a preference to buy bitcoin at cheaper prices in order to get more BTC for the same cash, yet at the same time, if we try to wait for those lower prices or to strategize around getting lower prices, we may well end up screwing up our bitcoin accumulation process.

For example, those who bought Bitcoin at the highest price in 2021 and held it until 2025 have been able to make a profit from all their Bitcoins at the present time, whereas in 2022-23, if we consider the value of their saved Bitcoins against the dollar, they were in several times the loss. On the other hand, those who buy Bitcoin in DCA do not need to worry about the price falling or rising, they should invest in Bitcoin at the moment they have discretionary income.

I think that there are a lot of examples of guys who might have had started their bitcoin accumulation at the top or near the top of some bitcoin price peak, yet if they just kept buying bitcoin as their cash came available, then they end up briging their cost per BTC down during their buying process, and they have no real way of knowing if the BTC price would go up or down, yet someone who started to buy bitcoin in early 2021 and if he kept buying BTC until now, then he likely would have had an average cost per BTC that is right around $40k and perhaps even lower than $40k... and yeah, he can ONLY do so much, but it still is not a bad place to be if a guy has been buying bitcoin since early 2021 and he has an average cost per coin right around $40k.  He is in a good place right now.. and a bit of a cushion between the current price and his average cost per coin... and the guy still might be in the process of increasing his bitcoin stash since he might not have enough bitcoin yet, even though he had already been accumulating bitcoin for nearly 5 years.

Even though bitcoin is amongst the best of investments (if not the best investment), it still can take a quite a bit of time to build up our bitcoin holdings in order to get our bitcoin holdings to a place in which we might start to consider it to be in a good spot... and many guys might not want to start to withdraw from their bitcoin holdings until it has compounded in value a few times, so a guy with an average cost of $40k, might not even be close to being ready to cash out any coins, and he might still be accumulating coins, and maybe he won't sell any coins until he feels that he has enough to earn an income that he feels is sufficient for his particular standard of living or for his target standard of living.

In addition, if someone wants to buy Bitcoin in DIP, they should not wait to buy in DIP by closing DCA. What they can do is to create a separate fund to buy in DIP along with the purchase of DCA.

That is probably the smarter way to do it, and I am not going to say that I know for sure when a guy might discontinue DCA and then transition into just buying the dip rather than ongoingly DCAing.  I personally have changed my own standards over the years, even though sometimes I think that if a person might have had already invested more than a whole year's income into bitcoin, he might start to feel that he had put enough into bitcoin, so he can lower his level of aggressiveness when it comes to ongoing bitcoin buying... but yeah, those are personal decisions in regards to changing levels of aggressiveness in bitcoin buying, and surely there could be situations in which it might be better for a guy to continue to follow the system that he had already been following, yet he might decide that he wants to change his strategy, which those are personal choices that likely involve the calculation of a variety of personal factors.

If we look at MSTR, we can see that they have continued to buy DCA throughout the year, but even after buying Bitcoin at the highest price, the average price of their Bitcoin is much lower than the current price, meaning they are still in profit.

Of course, MSTR seems to have a bit of a problem in which it is buying on the way up rather than on the way down or during consolidation periods, and so I am not sure why they feel some kind of need to buy BTC with all of the money that they have coming in, since surely it is true that their investors will be sending them more money as the BTC price goes up, yet I still doubt that they have to buy in such a way that they are buying at or near the top, yet for sure there might be obligations for them to buy bitcoin as the money is coming in rather than buying on dips or otherwise setting up some kind of a more paced approach to their bitcoin buys.

Many of us know the statistic of their nearly doubling their bitcoin investment during and after the Trump pump, and surely if we look at the 200-WMA, we should appreciate that any person or entity that had been steadily buying bitcoin over 4 years, they would have had bitcoin prices at or near the 200-WMA, and most likely if they buy steady then with the passage of time, their average cost per BTC would likely move towards being further and further below the 200-WMA.. and even though right now the 200-WMA is nearly $56k, MSTR has a average cost per BTC that is right around $78k, which is $22k higher than the 200-WMA(that is about 40% higher than the 200-WMA).

The way that they are buying bitcoin on leverage seems to bring up their average cost per BTC to much higher levels than any similarly situated (in terms of time in the market) normal person or entity.

[Ambatman]

If it's truly the early phases of the bear cycle, how high, do you believe, is the probability that Strategy would sell some of their Bitcoin to buy back their own stock?

Missed this before but had to look seeing the recent post between you and JJG.

Like I usually said, Not selling is one of their selling point even if it may sound unrealistic
If they do sell some of their Bitcoin to buy their stock it would be a circle
Like feeling gaps while removing parts from the same body
It wouldn't solve much because many may start losing faith
And the share they are trying to save would tank. If it's necessary they would source out another debt to finance
This I'd why Phong is placing that seed of sell
Trying to reduce the impact of saylor narrative of never selling. Mnav isn't looking good.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Mnav isn't looking good.

I would say that the current mNAV is more realistic. With the products that Strategy launches, it makes sense that it is higher than 1, as it is not a Bitcoin ETF. But I don't think we will see mNAVs of 3 or 4 again, as we did in the past. Consider that if, for example, the mNAV were now at 2, in order to recover your investment in terms of exposure to Bitcoin, Strategy would have to acquire another 650,000 Bitcoins, and if it has taken 5 and a half years, it is logical that it will take longer, because the price is higher and there will be another halving in the meantime.

[fillippone]

Mnav isn't looking good.

I would say that the current mNAV is more realistic. With the products that Strategy launches, it makes sense that it is higher than 1, as it is not a Bitcoin ETF. But I don't think we will see mNAVs of 3 or 4 again, as we did in the past. Consider that if, for example, the mNAV were now at 2, in order to recover your investment in terms of exposure to Bitcoin, Strategy would have to acquire another 650,000 Bitcoins, and if it has taken 5 and a half years, it is logical that it will take longer, because the price is higher and there will be another halving in the meantime.

I agree with that.
We had an excess of demand for Strategy as it was the only way to get exposure to the Bitcoin price.
Now that ETFs are more easily accessible (at launch, they were still restricted by many platforms), not everyone has to buy Microstrategy shares.
Also, I think the MSCI delisting is almost priced in today, if we look at how fast MSTR depegged from the bitcoin price after October 10th.

[Wind_FURY]

[edited out]

Changing my tune?

It is your style.

My style?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Or maybe you're just being cynical?

Hard to see my cynicism, to the extent it exists, as relevant.  You are probably reading too much into it, since I posted a response to your post.

You're right, it's actually hard to see a your own cynicism, but other people notice it.

You are now trying to suggest that you don't believe in such negative scenario as you had earlier posed, yet you had wanted to pose such a negative scenario anyhow and ask: "what if?

Is there anything wrong with asking about people's opinions or discuss what their thoughts/insights are about a world where Bitcoin crashes down to near or under its 200-Weekly SMA and MSTR has a larger drawdown bring mNAV further down?

What are you afraid of?

Of course all kinds of BTC price movements are possible, and some BTC price movements are more likely than other things and we do not know the future in advance, even though this time, you are hoping to be different than your past fails, since you are hoping that your ongoing bet on down will pay off, this time.. .yet even if you end up being successful this time, your ongoing betting on down still is not going to make up for your ongoing and extensive whimpiness in regards to your bitcoin preparations and your ongoing failures/refusals to sufficiently prepare for up.  

?

"Ongoing bet on down"?

 

I can't "bet on down". The only thing I could do is buy more of the Bitcoin DIP if it actually crashes down, and I believe EVERYONE here would truly LOVE to buy Bitcoin at a good discount.

--Snip--

Since MSTR has has hinged so much of itself on bitcoin, it's behaviors and it's performance ends up affecting how bitcoin performs, even though they are not the same thing... so yeah, it can be interesting to see how much MSTR prices might diverge from BTC spot prices.. and we have frequently found guys aspiring for lower BTC prices, even during periods that they should be buying, just like you were doing in mid-2023 when we were in the upper $20ks, you were so excitedly waiting for lower $20ks that did not end up happening, so you are again getting excited for down that might not happen... and so yeah, this time might be different so that you can buy some cheaper coins, and perhaps you will not be able to?

But Bitcoin did go its 200-Weekly SMA though, which was a GOOD buying opportunity for me and many of our fellow plebs. I will be of the belief that it will go near or below that again until it doesn't.

[ultrloa]

Looking great and Michael Saylor just announce the recent purchase of Strategy.

This news provably could give some impact especially for those people looking for some good situation that can possibly help Bitcoin to pump.

They can also see this update on their tracker https://saylortracker.com/



https://x.com/saylor/status/1998015666344054815