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Bluedrem
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January 21, 2026, 04:15:38 PM |
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From what I can see, Saylor continues to ATM common stock as if there were no tomorrow, and we already know that this is going to be the case down to 1 mNAV. Of note is the increase in STRC's ATM, which amounts to almost $300 million. It's clear that this is another instrument he will use relentlessly, increasing the dividend as much as necessary to get the stock to $100. The problem I see is that every new STRC share sold creates a new need to pay dividends.
Yes, I agree with your point. While raising capital through additional ATM issuance may make the balance sheet look strong in the short term, in the long term it increases shareholder dilution and structural liabilities. Especially in the case of dividend-based instruments like STRCs, each new share creates a mandatory future cash outflow, which can quickly raise questions about sustainability if market conditions turn adverse. As a result, it is becoming not just a price support strategy, but also a process of accumulating risk over time. I don't know what the strategy is actually going to be. Are they sure that the market will not turn adverse?
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eternalgloom
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January 21, 2026, 08:52:39 PM |
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From what I can see, Saylor continues to ATM common stock as if there were no tomorrow, and we already know that this is going to be the case down to 1 mNAV. Of note is the increase in STRC's ATM, which amounts to almost $300 million. It's clear that this is another instrument he will use relentlessly, increasing the dividend as much as necessary to get the stock to $100. The problem I see is that every new STRC share sold creates a new need to pay dividends.
But STRC is not just a free ATM with no cost. The company can adjust the yield monthly to help stabilize price. Yep, selling more share create dividend liability but that is the nature of preferred and part of how they raise capital to buy more Bitcoin without selling BTC outright. So the liability is also baked into the structure rather than being some unexpected side effect. 
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Ambatman
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January 21, 2026, 10:08:02 PM |
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From what I can see, Saylor continues to ATM common stock as if there were no tomorrow, and we already know that this is going to be the case down to 1 mNAV. Of note is the increase in STRC's ATM, which amounts to almost $300 million. It's clear that this is another instrument he will use relentlessly, increasing the dividend as much as necessary to get the stock to $100. The problem I see is that every new STRC share sold creates a new need to pay dividends.
When I look at the strategy that Michael saylor is implementing It reminds me of the statement "Fortune favours the bold" This shows trust in the fact that Bitcoin performance would cover up for the few downsides and hates everywhere. The world is drifting farther from peace as time goes on Gold price performance is an indicator. I think I would stop using gamble for him and just say it's understanding.
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Free Market Capitalist
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January 22, 2026, 09:56:58 AM Merited by fillippone (3) |
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But STRC is not just a free ATM with no cost. The company can adjust the yield monthly to help stabilize price.
The company has been adjusting the yield upwards, from the initial 9% to the current 11%. Strategy Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering of STRC Stock Yep, selling more share create dividend liability but that is the nature of preferred and part of how they raise capital to buy more Bitcoin without selling BTC outright.
Not exactly. It is the nature of that preferred, of STRC. The only way the company has to keep paying those newly created liabilities is to keep selling more preferred stocks (tied to liabilities again) or the common stock. So the liability is also baked into the structure rather than being some unexpected side effect.  Yeah, but it doesn't look good to me that you keep selling preferred shares that pay dividends, and the way to pay the dividend is to sell more preferred shares, which forces you to pay more dividends. It's not just preferred shares, as I said, there's also common stock, but to the extent that Saylor ATMs it down to 1, there's not much difference between buying MSTR and buying a Bitcoin spot ETF, except that with the ETF you don't have company risk. I imagine they are betting everything on a rise in the price of Bitcoin this year, which would help maintain the system.
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fillippone (OP)
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January 23, 2026, 07:17:35 PM |
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Interesting interview by What Bitcoin did to Micheal Saylor.  They extensively speak about DATs, and Micheal Saylor get heated on the answer, losing his dialectical ability to confront the interviewer, who was, by the way, right.
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Ambatman
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January 23, 2026, 07:52:51 PM |
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They extensively speak about DATs, and Micheal Saylor get heated on the answer, losing his dialectical ability to confront the interviewer, who was, by the way, right.
A two hours video. I will check it out later Though the comment section drew my attention to minute 46 where Saylor kinda took things personal. I believe he was coming from an Holistic pov Undermining the inevitability of competition Bitcoin isn't infinite It's a race to who can get it cheaper Hence why Saylor is sacrificing common shareholders for faster accumulation of Bitcoin.
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Seven Star7
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January 24, 2026, 12:14:41 AM |
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Michael Saylor's famous Bitcoin quote, "There is no second best", displayed in Times Square, New York 🇺🇸 Bitcoin is taking over Wall Street source
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Free Market Capitalist
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January 24, 2026, 05:19:26 AM Merited by JayJuanGee (1) |
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A two hours video. I will check it out later Though the comment section drew my attention to minute 46 where Saylor kinda took things personal.
I would watch it starting minute 25. 25 minutes to 1 hour is the most interesting part IMO. In minute 30 or so Saylor starts getting angry and even insulting the interviewer, while he keeps cool. Even though the interviewer was quite polite, it's clear that Saylor isn't used to being contradicted. He said several things that were nonsense in the interview, but to highlight one, he said that people are complainers when just over three months ago Bitcoin reached an all-time high (ATH). I don't know who he's trying to fool, as it was the most disappointing ATH in a post-halving year and he himself predicted a higher price by the end of 2025. MSTR’s Michael Saylor Predicts Bitcoin Will Hit $150,000 by Year-End, Expects $1 Million Within 8 Years
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Nothingtodo
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January 26, 2026, 03:21:36 PM |
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 Bitcoin holding giant MicroStrategy added 2,932 new Bitcoins to its holding chain today, purchasing each Bitcoin for around $90,000. However, Michael Saylor's MicroStudy has significantly reduced his Bitcoin purchases this week compared to the previous two weeks. His total Bitcoin reserves are now 712,647 Bitcoins. However, he has purchased $264 million worth of Bitcoin today.
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Bluedrem
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January 26, 2026, 05:17:45 PM |
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Bitcoin holding giant MicroStrategy added 2,932 new Bitcoins to its holding chain today, purchasing each Bitcoin for around $90,000. However, Michael Saylor's MicroStudy has significantly reduced his Bitcoin purchases this week compared to the previous two weeks. His total Bitcoin reserves are now 712,647 Bitcoins. However, he has purchased $264 million worth of Bitcoin today.
MicroStrategy’s $264.1 million Bitcoin purchase was entirely funded by the sale of 1,569,770 shares of MSTR (total value $257 million) and 70,201 shares of STRC (total value $7 million). This means that they have raised $264 million in ATMs from MSTR and STRC since January 20. The capital management strategy that MSTR is currently following is fundamentally different from the traditional corporate treasury model. When Bitcoin is down and MSTR’s mNAV is close to one, it seems risky to me. If Bitcoin heads into a long term bear market, I think MSTR could come under pressure.
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Popkon6
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January 27, 2026, 02:22:27 AM |
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The capital management strategy that MSTR is currently following is fundamentally different from the traditional corporate treasury model. When Bitcoin is down and MSTR’s mNAV is close to one, it seems risky to me. If Bitcoin heads into a long term bear market, I think MSTR could come under pressure.
 Source link: https://www.strategy.com/purchasesBitcoin prices may fall but this is not unusual, but under the leadership of Michael Saylor, MSTR Company has been buying Bitcoin for a long time. However, the current Bitcoin price and this week MSTR Company has purchased 2932 Bitcoins worth $90K. The average price of Bitcoin and the past Bitcoin purchase price is $76037 per Bitcoin. So now Michael Saylor has bought Bitcoin prices at highs and lows, and their Bitcoin price is much lower than the current price. So naturally, even if the Bitcoin price corrects, MSTR Company shares will not be at risk.
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Free Market Capitalist
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January 27, 2026, 08:08:38 AM |
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MicroStrategy’s $264.1 million Bitcoin purchase was entirely funded by the sale of 1,569,770 shares of MSTR (total value $257 million) and 70,201 shares of STRC (total value $7 million). This means that they have raised $264 million in ATMs from MSTR and STRC since January 20. The capital management strategy that MSTR is currently following is fundamentally different from the traditional corporate treasury model. When Bitcoin is down and MSTR’s mNAV is close to one, it seems risky to me. If Bitcoin heads into a long term bear market, I think MSTR could come under pressure.
For me, the potential problem lies not so much in common stock as in preferred stocks. If we have a bad cycle in which a new ATH is not reached between now and 2029, it will be difficult to justify to the market that you are paying a 10% dividend or more when you are basing it on an asset that is not providing that return. It looks good on paper to say that bitcoin will yield an average annual return of 30% over the next 20 years, but predictions about the future rarely come true, and even less so when it comes to economic matters. It is entirely possible that we will now have a few years of flat or even falling prices, followed by a sharp rise in 5 or 10 years, as has happened with gold. For people who HODL Bitcoin for the long term with their private keys, that is not a problem. But paying annual dividends of 10% in that scenario is.
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Ambatman
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January 28, 2026, 11:05:24 PM |
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I would watch it starting minute 25. 25 minutes to 1 hour is the most interesting part IMO.
Thanks almost forgot about the video. Let me see how Saylor responded before the question on Competitor treasury companies. I don't know who he's trying to fool, as it was the most disappointing ATH in a post-halving year and he himself predicted a higher price by the end of 2025. Anytime the so called Big names in the Bitcoin community make predictions about Bitcoin It makes it seem like its a scam coin They would just call outrageous number without giving reason why. If Bitcoin heads into a long term bear market, I think MSTR could come under pressure.
It's already under pressure especially from Common stock holders Saylor even posted few hours ago that they don't engage in rehypothecation He can't really blame many for thinking such.
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Free Market Capitalist
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January 30, 2026, 04:49:41 AM Merited by fillippone (3) |
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Well, things aren't looking good for Strategy, MSTR has reached a 52 WMA low. On the other hand, all preferred shares are trading below $100. Is he going to raise STRC's dividend again? Everything points to us entering a bear market. Increasing the dividend while the asset you rely on to pay it falls does not look very promising.
This is starting to remind me of PlanB's Stock-to-Flow model. A model that many of us believed in, which looked great on paper, but when the results in reality began to dismantle the model, the author, instead of considering it invalid, continued to reformulate the model to try to show that it was not invalid, unsuccessfully.
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fillippone (OP)
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January 30, 2026, 10:19:18 PM |
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Well, things aren't looking good for Strategy, MSTR has reached a 52 WMA low. On the other hand, all preferred shares are trading below $100. Is he going to raise STRC's dividend again? Everything points to us entering a bear market. Increasing the dividend while the asset you rely on to pay it falls does not look very promising.
This is starting to remind me of PlanB's Stock-to-Flow model. A model that many of us believed in, which looked great on paper, but when the results in reality began to dismantle the model, the author, instead of considering it invalid, continued to reformulate the model to try to show that it was not invalid, unsuccessfully.
As long as mNAV is above 1 and the BTC yield is positive, things aren't looking bad to me. Of course, I was originally shorting MSTR and buying RTF since day one, yet I got so burned in that trade that now I am, in a way, rooting for MSTR to keep doing what they do for a long time. You might not like them, Saylor- but the idea of smuggling bitcoin into TradFi this way is irresistible.
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Free Market Capitalist
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January 31, 2026, 09:24:07 AM |
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Of course, I was originally shorting MSTR and buying RTF since day one, yet I got so burned in that trade that now I am, in a way, rooting for MSTR to keep doing what they do for a long time. You might not like them, Saylor- but the idea of smuggling bitcoin into TradFi this way is irresistible.
It's not that I like it or dislike it. Throughout this thread, what I am expressing are rational doubts about the system, and exposing Saylor's lurches, who, living up to his name, seems like a sailboat being carried by the wind without steering the rudder. "Never sell your Bitcoin". Now he says he might sell. "People who save in fiat we call them poor". Now he's built a $2,2B fiat reserve. "I'm not going to ATM the common stock below 2,5 mNAV". Just after that he ATMs the stock down to 1 and change. MSTR was the worst performing asset of the Nasdaq 100 index last year. If things continue like this, and 2026 doesn't even have to be a very bad year for Bitcoin, just staying sideways will be enough for MSTR to drop out of the index due to loss of market cap. I have also expressed rational doubts about the flagship product, STRC, which, as far as I can see, consists of increasing the dividend as the underlying asset falls further. I'd say those are pretty rational statements, not me liking or disliking Saylor. As long as mNAV is above 1 and the BTC yield is positive, things aren't looking bad to me.
So how do you explain that in 2025 the BTC yield was positive and the stock fell 50% while Bitcoin fell 7%? Something doesn't add up here: a wonderful positive yield that, instead of offsetting the decline in the underlying asset, multiplies the losses by 7.
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fillippone (OP)
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February 01, 2026, 09:09:19 AM |
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In their dashboard, Strategy added the number of months their cash (and BTC) stash can guarantee dividend payments. Currently, they are at more than 30 months of dividend coverage:  They don't need to sell bitcoin for the next 2 and a half years, even if the mNAV goes below 1. This is good, given their average buying price is $76,037, pretty close to the current value.
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Free Market Capitalist
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February 02, 2026, 07:18:17 AM |
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In their dashboard, Strategy added the number of months their cash (and BTC) stash can guarantee dividend payments. Currently, they are at more than 30 months of dividend coverage: Yes, I know that. But the fundamental question I have about dividend payments, especially those from STRC, is that they are paid based on an average Bitcoin price growth of 30%, and: 1. As things stand, it doesn't look likely, at least for the rest of this cycle. 2. (Most importantly) Strategy with its reverse DCA achieves a much lower return. At present, after five and a half years, the return achieved is close to 0%, whereas the CAGR for Bitcoin since August 2020 is 40%. You cannot pay 11% and growing if the asset on which you base it yields 0% to you. Of course, this could change if the price of Bitcoin skyrockets, but it doesn't look likely, at least not in 2026.
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HelliumZ
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February 02, 2026, 01:29:22 PM |
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 MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor purchased 855 Bitcoins during this deep market correction. However, Michael Saylor's company purchased 855 bitcoins for over $87,000 per bitcoin with $75 million. According to the company's rules and resolutions, his company is constantly buying Bitcoin even though the market is currently in a deep correction. Earlier, his company had purchased more than 10,000 Bitcoins, and in early February, his company's Bitcoin purchases suddenly dropped to 855.
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Free Market Capitalist
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February 02, 2026, 01:50:03 PM |
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MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor purchased 855 Bitcoins during this deep market correction. However, Michael Saylor's company purchased 855 bitcoins for over $87,000 per bitcoin with $75 million.55.
It is not surprising that at this time of falling prices, Strategy's access to liquidity is very limited. The approximately $100 million raised comes exclusively from MSTR's ATM. The other thing to note is that, as I predicted, STRC's dividend is rising again, this time to 11.25%. I don't know if they taught Saylor this at MIT, but at my school, raising the dividend more and more while the asset you rely on to pay it hasn't yielded even 0% to you would be a failing grade in math.
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