Bitcoin betting on the 2020 US Presidential Election | Trump vs Biden

[Timelord2067]

There is no proof that COVID immunity is even possible at this point, the only way to test it would be to expose someone again to the virus, which is unethical.

Some parts of the world (Europe) are looking at new lock-downs as second and third waves of infection spread across their populations.  Researchers should be looking to those countries and will most likely know already who had contracted Covid during the first wave/lock-down (the population themselves should know) which will enable researchers to study second and third infections by previous patients.

(Should it come to that)

[Google+]

There is no proof that COVID immunity is even possible at this point, the only way to test it would be to expose someone again to the virus, which is unethical.

I think that's a bad action, and maybe that way won't work because everyone's immune condition is very different so it won't be easy to get people to catch Covid when the immune condition in the body is good. maybe trump is easy to get because his body condition is weak because maybe he is too tired and doesn't use a mask so he can easily catch it

[wxa7115]

Donald Trump winning odds are raising to 2.76 now on Cloudbet. I'm tempted to play but I won't.
I have still mixed feelings, I don't want Trump to win but something in my mind says he will win again. He always finds a way to me. I also think those debates have no major impact on voters.

You need to separate your feelings from your bets, as an example I have made bets against my favourite team when I believe they will lose, however I see it this way, if they happen to win then I will be happy about it and I will not care about losing my bet, but if they do happen to lose then at least I will have the comfort of having won my bet and that will soften the blow.

You could do the same, if you actually believe Trump will win even if you do not like him then putting a small bet on him will put your mind at ease, because if he losses you win by Trump not getting elected and if Trump wins you win as well by receiving a small amount of money because of it.

[OrdinaryBloke26]

Donald Trump winning odds are raising to 2.76 now on Cloudbet. I'm tempted to play but I won't.
I have still mixed feelings, I don't want Trump to win but something in my mind says he will win again. He always finds a way to me. I also think those debates have no major impact on voters.

You need to separate your feelings from your bets, as an example I have made bets against my favourite team when I believe they will lose, however I see it this way, if they happen to win then I will be happy about it and I will not care about losing my bet, but if they do happen to lose then at least I will have the comfort of having won my bet and that will soften the blow.

You could do the same, if you actually believe Trump will win even if you do not like him then putting a small bet on him will put your mind at ease, because if he losses you win by Trump not getting elected and if Trump wins you win as well by receiving a small amount of money because of it.

Throughout the thread we’ve seen Trumps winner market value move so much due to his positive “China Plague” result. If you want to bet on Trump - which I think that if it comes to a one-vote-per-state-election then I do think Trump will maintain his presidency - you can now get amazing value at over 2.8.

Cloudbet have embedded Trumps twitter feed to their page. Makes for fun reading!!!

[abhiseshakana]

I think that's a bad action, and maybe that way won't work because everyone's immune condition is very different so it won't be easy to get people to catch Covid when the immune condition in the body is good. maybe trump is easy to get because his body condition is weak because maybe he is too tired and doesn't use a mask so he can easily catch it

Donald Trump was already old, so it is very natural if his immunity not as good as young people and he becomes vulnerable to all diseases including covid.

But I think Trump's recovery from Covid could be a game changer in the 2020 US Presidential Election, if he can completely recover from covid, Trump will be considered a hero and a symbol of the US conquest of the pandemic.

[Porfirii]

I think that's a bad action, and maybe that way won't work because everyone's immune condition is very different so it won't be easy to get people to catch Covid when the immune condition in the body is good. maybe trump is easy to get because his body condition is weak because maybe he is too tired and doesn't use a mask so he can easily catch it

Donald Trump was already old, so it is very natural if his immunity not as good as young people and he becomes vulnerable to all diseases including covid.

But I think Trump's recovery from Covid could be a game changer in the 2020 US Presidential Election, if he can completely recover from covid, Trump will be considered a hero and a symbol of the US conquest of the pandemic.

In fact, it seems that he is doing quite well against the disease, isn't he? I think that the ninth day of infection is critical, also: if you get worse, prognosis is bad, while if you get better, it's hard to get worse after.

Donald Trump winning odds are raising to 2.76 now on Cloudbet. I'm tempted to play but I won't.
I have still mixed feelings, I don't want Trump to win but something in my mind says he will win again. He always finds a way to me. I also think those debates have no major impact on voters.

You need to separate your feelings from your bets, as an example I have made bets against my favourite team when I believe they will lose, however I see it this way, if they happen to win then I will be happy about it and I will not care about losing my bet, but if they do happen to lose then at least I will have the comfort of having won my bet and that will soften the blow.

You could do the same, if you actually believe Trump will win even if you do not like him then putting a small bet on him will put your mind at ease, because if he losses you win by Trump not getting elected and if Trump wins you win as well by receiving a small amount of money because of it.

Indeed, I have always had this idea too; while I don't usually bet, it is a good way of damage control in case you don't want to go all in when you are biased because of your preference. You won't be 100% happy with this technique, but at least you can assure some 50% of happiness depending on your feelings and how you measure them economically.

[OrdinaryBloke26]

Trump has targeted Pennsylvania this week with two campaign appearances and has reportedly made the state a key focus leading up to Election Day - An interesting approach to take on Biden's home state that is heavily a blue state 

[Lucasgabd]

interesting to see how sentiment has changed (at least on FTX) contracts over the past weeks.
this is trump contract:


this is Biden's:


For those who are unaware on how it works:
The winner of the election has its contract expiring to 1 USD when the election is decided.
the loser has its contract expired to 0 USD.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Trump has targeted Pennsylvania this week with two campaign appearances and has reportedly made the state a key focus leading up to Election Day - An interesting approach to take on Biden's home state that is heavily a blue state 

Pennsylvania may be Joe Biden's home state. But I don't think that you can term it as a blue state. Even now, out of the two PA senators, one is Republican (Pat Toomey). Trump won the 2016 elections in PA, although by a wafer-thin margin (by 44,292 votes). As per the opinion polls, Biden may be well ahead in PA. But let's not forget the fact that the same was the case even in 2016. PA is a part of rust-belt, and Trump supporters are wary of identifying as such in the public.

[wxa7115]

You need to separate your feelings from your bets, as an example I have made bets against my favourite team when I believe they will lose, however I see it this way, if they happen to win then I will be happy about it and I will not care about losing my bet, but if they do happen to lose then at least I will have the comfort of having won my bet and that will soften the blow.

You could do the same, if you actually believe Trump will win even if you do not like him then putting a small bet on him will put your mind at ease, because if he losses you win by Trump not getting elected and if Trump wins you win as well by receiving a small amount of money because of it.

Indeed, I have always had this idea too; while I don't usually bet, it is a good way of damage control in case you don't want to go all in when you are biased because of your preference. You won't be 100% happy with this technique, but at least you can assure some 50% of happiness depending on your feelings and how you measure them economically.

In fact this is a form of hedging, just as you hedge your trades in the case something goes wrong you do not lose as much money, or you do the same as you gamble in order to avoid losing as  much money when it is clear your bet is going to lose, or as you buy insurance for your home against natural disasters or robberies you are also hedging by doing what I describe in my previous post.

But what exactly are we hedging? Your feelings! I find out long time ago this is a great way to feel a little bit better when you do not want an outcome to happen but that you feel is quite likely to happen, as in the example above if you do not like the idea of Trump winning a small bet on his favour insurances you that no matter the results you will be somewhat happy the day after the elections.

[aesma]

But what exactly are we hedging? Your feelings! I find out long time ago this is a great way to feel a little bit better when you do not want an outcome to happen but that you feel is quite likely to happen, as in the example above if you do not like the idea of Trump winning a small bet on his favour insurances you that no matter the results you will be somewhat happy the day after the elections.

Reverse betting, ah ah I like it. If you want Trump to win, bet on Biden. If you want Biden to win, bet on Trump. Either way you win something and lose something.

I did the opposite once and lost both the bet and the election, it wasn't pretty !

[STT]

Trump supporters are wary of identifying as such in the public.

Considering the extent of protests this year with quite clear bias for the politics either side and the vitriol in the arguments either way, its very likely people wont openly disclose their voting even afterwards in an exit poll they may find accuracy is not where it would be normally.     Its not even about Trump, I think many just vote with their party candidate rarely deviate from that course while relying on influence between houses, deal making to balance any negatives or disagreements.
    Last debate I watched in its strange format I thought Trump came across as fighting fit, in a general way thats probably to his credit; the host pushed back no doubt but seemed like a performance that wouldn't lose any votes especially.   The fine detail on politics is not something I'd attempt to judge and in any case I think consensus and broad points like voter perception are the only chance bettors have to determine odds best.

[OrdinaryBloke26]

Trump is now favorite in Florida.

Fair play Donald, your campaign is swinging the markets in your favor!

[bryant.coleman]

Trump is now favorite in Florida.
Fair play Donald, your campaign is swinging the markets in your favor!

Not sure about FL. According to RealClearPolitics, Biden is ahead by 1.4 points. However, the race seems to have tightened there in the recent weeks.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

Florida is a must win state for Donald Trump. However for Biden that is not the case. Biden can win the elections comfortably even without Florida. On the other hand, Pennsylvania is going to be crucial. If Biden wins PA, then it is over for Trump. He has no chance of winning the elections, if he loses either FL or PA.

[OrdinaryBloke26]

Trump is now favorite in Florida.
Fair play Donald, your campaign is swinging the markets in your favor!

Not sure about FL. According to RealClearPolitics, Biden is ahead by 1.4 points. However, the race seems to have tightened there in the recent weeks.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

Florida is a must win state for Donald Trump. However for Biden that is not the case. Biden can win the elections comfortably even without Florida. On the other hand, Pennsylvania is going to be crucial. If Biden wins PA, then it is over for Trump. He has no chance of winning the elections, if he loses either FL or PA.

You're absolutely right, Florida is a must-win state for Trump. Biden needs to win by a large margin for it not to be contested -- which would be TERRIBLE!!!

[Cloudbet]

Dear Community,

Thank you for your support on this US Election thread.

Cloudbet's Electoral College map has seen some tug-of-war action in swing states as we head into the last debate and the business end of the 2020 US Presidential Election campaign.

Our latest look at the betting markets comes before Nashville’s Last Chance Saloon - read about changes we’ve seen in the winner and state market lines, in the days since both candidates held their town halls on October 15.



Keep an eye on this thread for more discussion and Cloudbet updates as the race enters the final stretch ahead of the big day on November 3.

Cheers,
Team Cloudbet

[Debonaire217]

Trump is now favorite in Florida.

Fair play Donald, your campaign is swinging the markets in your favor!

For most of the investors and those who prioritize businesses, it is evident that their vote will be for trump. With the recent articles I have read regarding stocks and crypto, I think I will kind of in favor of trump in this case. It is a massive economic development if he wins and who doesn't want that? Though we should also bet for the other competitors perhaps, if the favor will not be on our hands, we still have winnings to celebrate.

[Lucasgabd]

do you think it's possible to have an accurate view of the election probabilities this year without living in the US?
Would love to know the % of people here and betting who aren't US citizens.

for me it's kind hard to have the feelings about the elections without living there.

best resources for information end up being polls which are not so reliable.
where else do you gather information on crowd sentiment and more?

[OrdinaryBloke26]

Can presidential debate moderator Kristen Welker prevent chaos this time? In my opinion, I think that she is doing a great job!

[abhiseshakana]

Trump is now favorite in Florida.

Fair play Donald, your campaign is swinging the markets in your favor!

For most of the investors and those who prioritize businesses, it is evident that their vote will be for trump. With the recent articles I have read regarding stocks and crypto, I think I will kind of in favor of trump in this case. It is a massive economic development if he wins and who doesn't want that? Though we should also bet for the other competitors perhaps, if the favor will not be on our hands, we still have winnings to celebrate.

We all know Trump is a businessman, at least there are still many people who think that he is a successful businessman and he also gets backing from another billionaire who supports his campaign. So it is only natural that many businessmen in America that still support Trump and even donated to him. In business, if your partner comes out as a winner, your business path will have the potential to shine.

Besides that, Trump's experience when he was exposed to corona, actually was the reason behind his promise to provide corona antibodies to all Americans for free. Of course, this has turned out to be a nice campaign strategy.