Bitcoin betting on the 2020 US Presidential Election | Trump vs Biden

[slaman29]

We all know Trump is a businessman, at least there are still many people who think that he is a successful businessman and he also gets backing from another billionaire who supports his campaign. So it is only natural that many businessmen in America that still support Trump and even donated to him. In business, if your partner comes out as a winner, your business path will have the potential to shine.

Besides that, Trump's experience when he was exposed to corona, actually was the reason behind his promise to provide corona antibodies to all Americans for free. Of course, this has turned out to be a nice campaign strategy.

Look, when you have just two people to pick from, then you are always going 50/50 for how people think of you and even when it comes to votes, it's all about who you hate less or who you want less to be doing shit to your country.

And we'll even get some sympathy votes for Trump for his sickness for sure.

[Juggy777]

Trump is now favorite in Florida.

Fair play Donald, your campaign is swinging the markets in your favor!

For most of the investors and those who prioritize businesses, it is evident that their vote will be for trump. With the recent articles I have read regarding stocks and crypto, I think I will kind of in favor of trump in this case. It is a massive economic development if he wins and who doesn't want that? Though we should also bet for the other competitors perhaps, if the favor will not be on our hands, we still have winnings to celebrate.

We all know Trump is a businessman, at least there are still many people who think that he is a successful businessman and he also gets backing from another billionaire who supports his campaign. So it is only natural that many businessmen in America that still support Trump and even donated to him. In business, if your partner comes out as a winner, your business path will have the potential to shine.

Besides that, Trump's experience when he was exposed to corona, actually was the reason behind his promise to provide corona antibodies to all Americans for free. Of course, this has turned out to be a nice campaign strategy.

@OrdinaryBloke26 according to CNN polls both Trump and Biden do not have a clear majority in Florida, and in Pennsylvania Biden is leading by a huge margin. Furthermore in this election the key factor is the vote of Indo Americans, and majority of them support Biden which has the potential to turn the election results in his favour.

Sources:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/us/politics/biden-harris-indian-americans.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/21/politics/cnn-polls-pennsylvania-florida/index.html

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/21/why-indian-americans-matter-in-us-politics/

[Betwrong]

...

One now defunct online site was offering 7:1 for Trump to win.  Some people cleaned up (sadly I wasn't one of them only due to a lack of BTC at the time to place a wager) - which is probably why that site ended up going downhill fairly quickly afterwards.

Seriously if a casino offers that kind of odds today on a Trump win then I guarantee you something is wrong with their odds provider, the odds of him winning should not be that high and today it would make more sense if it was around @1.7 or something.
~

I believe there is no "odds provider" responsible for that, in the sense that you imply. After a certain amount of bets have been placed, the odds are formed in accordance with how much money were bet on this or that side. Otherwise sportsbooks would be gambling by themselves, having the option either win or lose. But they don't want to gamble, they just want to earn with their house edge, that's all. If there were 7:1 for Trump to win, that's because 7 times more money were placed on the other side.

Regarding the current Biden/Trump situation, I would bet on Trump because the chances for either of them winning are closer to 50/50, while the outcome odds for Trump are above 2.0 everywhere.

[Ryker1]

^[snip]
Regarding the current Biden/Trump situation, I would bet on Trump because the chances for either of them winning are closer to 50/50, while the outcome odds for Trump are above 2.0 everywhere.

Well, I have doubt that Trump will lose this US election.
By the way, if there is someone who will host a betting game that has an entry of a few bucks amount before they will guess who will the winner. And the winner who had the same bet will be devided the winning amount to those participants. I will choose Biden here, he has the high odds of Trump.

[palle11]

Reverse betting, ah ah I like it. If you want Trump to win, bet on Biden. If you want Biden to win, bet on Trump. Either way you win something and lose something.

I did the opposite once and lost both the bet and the election, it wasn't pretty !

This reverse betting is not the best way to vote. It doesn't give the accurate choice to win in your heart. You do reverse betting hoping that things turn to your favour because inside of your heart, you hope for someone else, why not throw your dice on the person you want really and allow fate to happen to your good 

[Timelord2067]

This reverse betting is not the best way to vote. It doesn't give the accurate choice to win in your heart. You do reverse betting hoping that things turn to your favour because inside of your heart, you hope for someone else, why not throw your dice on the person you want really and allow fate to happen to your good 

The odds for one candidate over the other are one indication of who might win an election, but the amount of money actually wagered is a better indication.  If one or two put hefty lump sums on a candidate they still only count as one or two "votes" but hundreds or even thousands of wagers give a truer indication of who is likely to win.

[l3pox]

This reverse betting is not the best way to vote. It doesn't give the accurate choice to win in your heart. You do reverse betting hoping that things turn to your favour because inside of your heart, you hope for someone else, why not throw your dice on the person you want really and allow fate to happen to your good 

The odds for one candidate over the other are one indication of who might win an election, but the amount of money actually wagered is a better indication.  If one or two put hefty lump sums on a candidate they still only count as one or two "votes" but hundreds or even thousands of wagers give a truer indication of who is likely to win.

That is a quite interesting Point of View Timelord2067
I bet we could create prediction models or use existing solutions like Augur or Futuur to help on polls and % probability of each candidate winning.

I can explain better:
besides using only public opinion on polls, where people can lie or change their minds, we could use the money at stake to balance the % results, because even if someone is not sure about voting for a candidate their willingness to bet on them could be a greater indicative for outcomes of the election.

would really like to see more developed models on that.

[Cloudbet]

A good debate, and it's not over yet...

As President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden met for a second and final debate, here are a few thoughts post-debate:

A win for moderator Kristen Welker.
While most - including Chris Wallace - seem to agree Welker did a sterling job, there's bound to be the odd dissenter, with Bill O'Reilly popping up to note: "Ms. Welker is now talking about the minimum wage. Why? That is a state issue."

Trump: Windmills cause cancer, they kill birds.
The most comprehensive and statistically sound estimates show that bird deaths from turbine collisions are between 140,000 and 500,000 birds per year.
Source: US Fish and Wildlife Service

We couldn’t find any clear stats on the number of cancer cases caused by windmills.

Biden: Get rid of the oil industry
Polls showed pre-debate Texas, though still in the Republican camp, looking like it was becoming more competitive for the Democrats - will that change now that Biden practically admitted that he wants to get rid of the oil industry? Will Texas now move to a solid Red state? - in line with the position that Cloudbet markets are showing,

Fact check: Joe Biden did express his opposition against fracking at least once. Mentioned this in the Democratic debate on July 31, 2019:

BASH: “Thank you, Mr. Vice President. Just to clarify, would there be any place for fossil fuels, including coal and fracking, in a Biden administration?”

BIDEN: “No, we would -- we would work it out. We would make sure it's eliminated and no more subsidies for either one of those, either -- any fossil fuel."

BIDEN: “I never said I oppose fracking.”
TRUMP: “You said it on tape.”
BIDEN: “I didn't... show the tape, put it on your website.”
TRUMP: “I will put it on.”

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1319466667676749824

The Trump office responded with a compilation to demonstrate Biden’s opposition to fracking.

Polls follow the money
An Opinium Research/Guardian poll suggests that some 55% of in-person voters intend to vote for Trump while 42% intend to vote for Biden, but where is the money going?

UK Investor Magazine referenced Cloudbet as 85% of Bitcoin bets have been in favour of Trump victory.

Are Bitcoin bettors hedging their bets, or do they truly believe that President Trump will retain the presidency?

Share your thoughts on the final debate.

Team Cloudbet

[wxa7115]

But what exactly are we hedging? Your feelings! I find out long time ago this is a great way to feel a little bit better when you do not want an outcome to happen but that you feel is quite likely to happen, as in the example above if you do not like the idea of Trump winning a small bet on his favour insurances you that no matter the results you will be somewhat happy the day after the elections.

Reverse betting, ah ah I like it. If you want Trump to win, bet on Biden. If you want Biden to win, bet on Trump. Either way you win something and lose something.

I did the opposite once and lost both the bet and the election, it wasn't pretty !

Believe me I know that pain as well especially when it came to my favourite teams, I used to bet on their favour even when I knew deep down they had no chance of winning thinking that even if the odds of winning were low if they were able to get the win not only I will be happy about the upset victory but also for the small profits they gave me.

But after several heartbreaking losses I decided to do the opposite and for the most part I think it is a better option, obviously you do not get the scenario of winning it all but no matter what happens I feel a lot better the day after and that counts a lot to me.

[Saint-loup]

Regarding the current Biden/Trump situation, I would bet on Trump because the chances for either of them winning are closer to 50/50, while the outcome odds for Trump are above 2.0 everywhere.

50/50? Why do you think that?
The first election was very tight and he disappointed many of his voters during its mandate.

[notblox1]

I think Biden screwed things up with his stupid statements in last debate, and if we include that Laptop from Hell it is obvious that his advantage is rapidly melting.
Odds are still not suggesting that change and news media are mostly supporting him, but I would say it is fair to say that 50/50 is real deal now.
Moderator was great and neutral this time.
Check odds here: https://bitodds.com/us-presidential-election/

Cloudbet you have juicy odds on Trump win

One more news could be interesting as Trump associate and ripple board member Ken Kurso was arrested by the FBI:
https://decrypt.co/46135/ripple-board-member-trump-associate-arrested

[STT]

Thats 36% for Trump win which is probably overdone because yes we know in basic poll terms he is lacking in popular vote but its probably the diversity of states in which he scores a victory which is more important.   Trump is certainly going to lose big in some highly populated areas and states; the magnitude of a loss is wasted energy once achieved.   Somehow if he gains enough wins elsewhere it could return him overall as successful.   50/50 is how I'd rate odds in a cautious way normally the sitting president might be said to have 60/40 advantage but this year being a fallout and we presumed a negative for Trump then at least it would seem even odds towards the challenger.   Biden returning as a vice now presidential contender might be also the name recognition and base line support that seals the deal, he has that unique advantage this time and I'm wondering how often thats been the case before for comparison mid term.
   My bet is already off which was that Trump gets covid and has to step down in the electoral race, that didnt happen.   I took that bet because the odds for Pence taking the reigns were giant, but a good outlier imo

[jostorres]

There is like only 10 days left, I do not really think that these debates ever achieve anything major, people keep talking about how who won or which side was better and that makes no sense to me at all. If I would have to guess, at this point if Trump is still have undecided voters they are either lying or they just do not want to admit it, Trump has been the president for past 4 years and you know him, if you are so unsure about who to vote but a debate only 10 days from the election suddenly makes you want to vote for Trump, you were always a trump supporter, you either lied to others or to yourself.

Biden has a lot more to gain because he shows himself, but at this point it is not even about Biden, there are tons who wants to vote anti-trump no matter who was the candidate. In my own opinion this debate achieved nothing at all.

[l3pox]

quite interesting to see how fast is changes
according to realclearpolitics Biden still winning by 8.1%

not sure how accurate this data is but seems like on last election Trump was losing by 5.3% but still made it so maybe we can assume that polls in general will favor Biden.

my bet is still for Biden here.

[aesma]

From what I can find around 138 million Americans voted in the 2016 presidential election. There was voter apathy though, so let's say this time the stakes are higher, COVID doesn't deter too much people from voting, and we get 150 millions voters. That would be a new record, so don't bet on much more.

At least 56 million people have already voted. So more than a third of the number who will vote in total. That means whatever happens, these votes can't change. I wonder if pollsters really take this into account, in my country we have no early voting so I don't have a feeling of how it could affect the end result.

What do you think ?

[l3pox]

<..>

wow, that's interesting, didn't even know early voting was a thing.
seems like it's a way for americans to have "no-excuse" for not joining.
quite interesting.

was aware that absence was high but didn't think it was over 40%.

In Brazil it's mandatory.

according to the University of Florida’s Elections Project. Michael McDonald, who administers the project, has said the election could set a modern turnout record, surpassing the 60% participation rate of recent presidential elections.

source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-idCAKBN2781A4

for more information on early-voting story I checked this article.

Seems like it differs from state to state, some states allow voting even 45 days before the elections, like Michigan.

[Betwrong]

Regarding the current Biden/Trump situation, I would bet on Trump because the chances for either of them winning are closer to 50/50, while the outcome odds for Trump are above 2.0 everywhere.

50/50? Why do you think that?
The first election was very tight and he disappointed many of his voters during its mandate.

Although it's true, I'm going to quote @STT here, because it is entirely in accordance with my thoughts on the matter:

~50/50 is how I'd rate odds in a cautious way normally the sitting president might be said to have 60/40 advantage but this year being a fallout and we presumed a negative for Trump then at least it would seem even odds towards the challenger.   ~

I placed my bet on Trump, and if I lose it, so be it. But overall I think it's a right strategy to bet on something that is less likely to happen, but not that less likely as the potential winnings differ.

[wxa7115]

There is like only 10 days left, I do not really think that these debates ever achieve anything major, people keep talking about how who won or which side was better and that makes no sense to me at all. If I would have to guess, at this point if Trump is still have undecided voters they are either lying or they just do not want to admit it, Trump has been the president for past 4 years and you know him, if you are so unsure about who to vote but a debate only 10 days from the election suddenly makes you want to vote for Trump, you were always a trump supporter, you either lied to others or to yourself.

Biden has a lot more to gain because he shows himself, but at this point it is not even about Biden, there are tons who wants to vote anti-trump no matter who was the candidate. In my own opinion this debate achieved nothing at all.

Debates have never been about exposing your ideas to the public, debates are about seeing if one of the candidates has something up their sleeve that can KO their opponent, and if they do this can change the minds of several people and win a few percentage points in the process, did it happen? I do not think so which is why the discussion about who won is meaningless since most people should have already decided about who they are going to vote.

But still it is a necessary exercise as there have been many elections around the world in which those kind of debates have altered the results as one of the candidates exposed a secret of their opponent that the public found unacceptable gaining him votes from those that were undecided and stole a few of the voters from their opponent.

[notblox1]

Betnomi has a nice 30% cashback offer in case of losing bet, but I am only thinking what will happen in case final election victory is delayed for few weeks.
I can imagine scenario of public unrest, and some states even announced they will need few weeks time to count all the votes!
We may need to wait a lot of time for bet confirmation.

[casperBGD]

Betnomi has a nice 30% cashback offer in case of losing bet, but I am only thinking what will happen in case final election victory is delayed for few weeks.
I can imagine scenario of public unrest, and some states even announced they will need few weeks time to count all the votes!
We may need to wait a lot of time for bet confirmation.

yeah, but could not be of particular importance on the end, depending on results in other states
at the moment, it is pretty unclear who will win the elections, and from my point of view, Trump has better chances to celebrate at the end, but that does not matter a lot, since i am not voting on this elections, not live in US