Bitcoin betting on the 2020 US Presidential Election | Trump vs Biden

[slapper]

Predicted Trump will win 2016 and again says its equally likely in 2020, since its a rare view I thought people might want to listen to some of the points.   https://youtu.be/LsUXcUK68bY?t=837
Time point I posted there he goes over why national polls are not especially relevant to the election and how easily media opinion becomes off base etc.

My take so far from what I've seen is Trump did not improve on his voting base from 2016, however you attribute the reason for that it would then remind us it was a very lucky win hence I think the chances for repeating that luck are low.   ie. a flipped coin twice, halves its chances of repeating the same result.    In any other year the standing president candidate would likely gain votes in many places.

Indeed there are many people who vote for Trump who never show up their faces. Republicans contain either the noisiest person or the quietest characteristic because they have enough knowledge to choose the way they want. Only those people who follow democracy does no understand real politics. They only care about the nonsense things which can not even make their economy become better while China grows to be a threat to all the countries. Personally, I hope that Trump will win this event. However, anything can happy. Just hope that the next president aware of their responsibility to become the most impact person on this planet

[onecall123]

I'm not from the US so I don't know much about how politics run in their country, but I'm just curious why Trump is the underdog on this election considering he is the present president. Can anyone enlighten me, I might put my bet soon too.

Well I don't know about your perception on the 2020 US Presidential Election between Trump vs Biden but Trump indeed not a bad prediction. I aware of the present situation and bunches of people were against him. But, Look back at 2016, how become he manage to get the title of 45th President of America. For now no one can't deny Trump had a chance to elect once.

[jostorres]

I wish there was a way to wager on "who will have the most votes" type of deal. In USA politics there is electoral college and because of that you could technically not get the most votes and still win the election. I know it is weird for many nations to understand it, it took me a while as well but you could get less votes and still become president. Republicans almost always loses the popular vote, they won like 1 in last 7 so it is obvious that they are not really as popular as they look (literally last 2 presidents out of 3 for the past 20 years) but only get votes from more places.

So, what I assume if there was a wager of "who will get the most votes" I would have totally picked Biden, 538 gives that possibility 97 out of 100, it is as guaranteed as it gets that Biden will have the more votes, no idea if he will win but he will have the most votes.

[coupable]

I'm not from the US so I don't know much about how politics run in their country, but I'm just curious why Trump is the underdog on this election considering he is the present president. Can anyone enlighten me, I might put my bet soon too.

Well I don't know about your perception on the 2020 US Presidential Election between Trump vs Biden but Trump indeed not a bad prediction. I aware of the present situation and bunches of people were against him. But, Look back at 2016, how become he manage to get the title of 45th President of America. For now no one can't deny Trump had a chance to elect once.

I agree with onecall123 that Donald Trump is the underdog on this election, and this is how he may get all his votes. Reasons? Mainly because of the pandemic and how he found himself facing a virus in his last presedential year which no one knows how to deal with. Trump isn't the worst president in the modern american history, but he lost all chances to get votes in the same way he did in 2016 when no one knows about him because the american voter doesn't really care about the economic repaired by Trump. I would surely vote for trump as the election underdog.

[Captain Corporate]

 I am checking 538 constantly to see if there is any news about anything, I am sure there is still a lot of time until we could start counting ballots and actually call it the election day but I still think that whenever USA starts, we will be here all around the world watching like it is one of the most exciting things ever in history. And this is such a wild ride that I am pretty sure it could be 400+ EC for Biden for a huge landslide victory, or it could be just florida and PA moving to Trump and making the whole difference for him to win with 270 with just few disctricts. Its really something shocking to watch as a foreigner, I know way too much about american political system and specially how election system works, I rather not know these things but for the past 1 year or so we have been waiting for this moment. Its tomorrow and we are going to finally see it. Also if I were you, I would vote Biden, I know "trump still has a chance" is a thing and yes he does but this is betting, you gotta pick one and why not pick the favorite?

[OrdinaryBloke26]

My election prediction 24 hours before we start getting results: Biden wins handily.

We effectively know the result by 3 AM eastern US time, but it's all but certain early when Biden narrowly carries Florida (~2.5%). Biden wins the national popular vote (not that anyone cares) by ~ 7.2%. Not quite landslide territory, but enough for a very clear result.

The major networks will be giddy, but they won't call the result on election night.

Trump does hold Arizona, but he's unable to replicate his 2016 breakthroughs in MI, WI, or PA (although PA will not be called on election night).

Georgia ultimately goes for Biden, but Texas remains red one more time.

With Florida going for Biden, Trump ends up not doing anything stupid like "declaring" victory, although neither does he give a concession speech on election night.

[bbc.reporter]

Where can we find the lastest and the most updated vote counts?

I heard that Trump is leading the early count and have released a statement telling everyone that the Democrats might plan to delegitimize the results.

[Cloudbet]

Dear Community,

Election Day is upon us. We're grateful for everyone's contribution in the run up to the big day.



Ever wondered how the odds for the US Election are formed? The Cloudbet Blog provides insights on the many factors that bookmakers use to form their odds - and see which candidate has attracted over 80% of the action at Cloudbet.

As the Election enters its final stretch, our number crunchers provide a final update ahead of Election Day, analysing the probability as suggested by Cloudbet betting markets of victory in key swing states like Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Pennsylvania - the battleground of choice for both candidates come Tuesday.

Best of luck,
Team Cloudbet

[johhnyUA]

@ChiBitCTy not many saw that coming so it’s fine, but this time round Biden is leading, and even though I like Trump I don’t expect him to win. @johhnyUA I can understand your frustration, but you could always wager a bit on Biden to recover your losses or hodl on to your bet and pray for a miracle.

I just told that telling about 50/50 is wrong, nothing more. And for honest my post is enough useful notation, because people often forget (or maybe the just don't know) basic probability of events and so on. It's nice to clarify and fresh their memory about this 

[l3pox]

I saw that last election was decided by only 80,000 voters.
quite little number if you think on the extension of the US and number of people.

seems like a lot more people are voting this year.

I'm also betting for Biden.
but there's a lot of uncertainty in the air.

how high you think are the chances of Trump losing and not wanting to give up of the presidency?
and what happens in this case? civil war?

[ingiltere]

What was the latest odds for Biden and Trump in your site before it closed? I couldn't reach right now.

It looks like Trump is ahead now but most Dems voted by mail, I wonder if Trump let those votes to count or not. I think this could be the first time in America, one president won't give his seat at all costs. We are used to that situation in Middle East geography but it's pretty weird in the US.

[Timelord2067]

I just hit the screen grab button too quickly, Anthony Green (ABC News - Australia) is giving Indiana to Trump taking the tally Biden 190 to Trump 88 with three hours before the polling booths close on the West Coast.

[aesma]

What was the latest odds for Biden and Trump in your site before it closed? I couldn't reach right now.

It looks like Trump is ahead now but most Dems voted by mail, I wonder if Trump let those votes to count or not. I think this could be the first time in America, one president won't give his seat at all costs. We are used to that situation in Middle East geography but it's pretty weird in the US.

Trump can't do anything (directly) about vote counting. Each state counts its votes, it's 50 elections in 50 states managed by local authorities.

Now if there is something fishy, or if Trump/GOP wants to make something fishy, they can sue, in fact they've been doing that for weeks now. In the end it could end up at the Supreme Court, where of course the conservatives have now a big majority. But even then, they're judges, not politicians, they can't totally change election rules.

[Timelord2067]

[quote author=aesma link=topic=5279076.msg55514751#msg55514751 date=1604463424]
Trump can't do anything (directly) about vote counting. Each state counts its votes, it's 50 elections in 50 states managed by local authorities.

Now if there is something fishy, or if Trump/GOP wants to make something fishy, they can sue, in fact they've been doing that for weeks now. In the end it could end up at the Supreme Court, where of course the conservatives have now a big majority. But even then, they're judges, not politicians, they can't totally change election rules.
[/quote]

Anthony Green has been just discussing the likely-hood of a "Hung Parliament" with one vote in Maine going to the GOP and all four in Nebraska giving 269 each:



We here in Australia are governed by preferential voting whereas the U.S. on the whole doesn't if my understanding of their initial voting is correct.

[Betwrong]

Speaking of underdog value bets, there's a special on Sportsbet now for Trump to win at 10/1. I placed the max bet on it (1 mbtc) just purely because every other side is under 3/1 so well, that's value right there;)

Vishnu: so young blue voters just Netflix and meme-whine eh?

I would be happy to do the same, but I missed that special. As of now, those are the odds on Sportsbet:



How quickly everything has changed, huh? Right now it's impossible to find 2/1 for Trump anywhere, so your 10/1 is definitely a great bet. I envy you .



I realize that it's immodest to quote one's own comment, so, I apologize in advance,  but, sorry, I can't resist from saying "I told ya, guys!" 

~
I placed my bet on Trump many months ago, and today I bet the same amount on him again. Trump is winning the elections, whether we like it or not.

[DrG]

Speaking of underdog value bets, there's a special on Sportsbet now for Trump to win at 10/1. I placed the max bet on it (1 mbtc) just purely because every other side is under 3/1 so well, that's value right there;)

Vishnu: so young blue voters just Netflix and meme-whine eh?

I would be happy to do the same, but I missed that special. As of now, those are the odds on Sportsbet:



How quickly everything has changed, huh? Right now it's impossible to find 2/1 for Trump anywhere, so your 10/1 is definitely a great bet. I envy you .



I realize that it's immodest to quote one's own comment, so, I apologize in advance,  but, sorry, I can't resist from saying "I told ya, guys!" 

~
I placed my bet on Trump many months ago, and today I bet the same amount on him again. Trump is winning the elections, whether we like it or not.

I suspected this odds flip would occur so I staked a position early on. Now that the odds are flipped I might make a counter bet. Either way I'll win. Sometimes gambling isn't gambling if you know how fickle human beings are. Good on you for catching that. I think it's fair to toot your own horn 

[buwaytress]

@Betwrong: yeah. I thought when the SB 10/1 odds came out, they probably knew something I didn't, and then before going to bet last night I def saw bookies putting Trump as low as 12/10 so I thought ah well, $13 down the drain. But right now? Looking at projected results, even with all the mailin votes coming, I think Trump is actually putting up a good fight, for sure the odds for both are closer to 2/1 right now.

I'd bet now if it were even 2/1 for Trump!

He will lose ground on electorals but he's already improved on the popular vote. Credit where it's due to the guy.

Edit: I hedged my bet with an equal outlay on Biden now at 2/1. So, at worst if Biden wins, I lose no money, if Trump wins I win 8x my stake;)

[mirakal]

Sportsbook are smart, the odds have flip now and I believe Trump will again win this being an underdog in the opening.

I can feel those big bettors who back on trump are already rejoicing now, if they are not sure, they can easily hedge with still a profit to keep.

[tomahawk9]

Well, it seems like Wisconsin could turn blue, but Nevada is 50/50 it appears with Trump closing in, same in Michigan but with Biden closing in...And looks like the bookies have Biden as the favorite right now, 1.66 and 2.4 for Trump...Hmm

they probably knew something I didn't

nah i don't think they knew anything. They (most  bookies) followed the media-oriented polls which is why they put Biden as the big favorite, although SB might've jumped the gun a little too fast with that crazy special lol

[Betwrong]

@Betwrong: yeah. I thought when the SB 10/1 odds came out, they probably knew something I didn't, and then before going to bet last night I def saw bookies putting Trump as low as 12/10 so I thought ah well, $13 down the drain. But right now? Looking at projected results, even with all the mailin votes coming, I think Trump is actually putting up a good fight, for sure the odds for both are closer to 2/1 right now.

I'd bet now if it were even 2/1 for Trump!

He will lose ground on electorals but he's already improved on the popular vote. Credit where it's due to the guy.

Edit: I hedged my bet with an equal outlay on Biden now at 2/1. So, at worst if Biden wins, I lose no money, if Trump wins I win 8x my stake

That's really great! I'm happy for you, mate! Right now it looks like I'm going to lose my bets on Trump(not much, $8 combined), and you are going to "lose no money"(which is a rare case in gambling. I wish I was always betting like this). But it's not 100% certain yet. Still hope to win.