US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated

[Cnut237]

they will just keep counting and counting until biden wins and then stop....

I don't think they will. They'll keep counting until Biden wins, then continue counting until all votes cast by the deadline are counted... by which point Biden will likely have won by even more.

Trump knows that mail-in ballots will favour Biden, which is why for example the Rep legislature of Pennsylvania banned the early counting of postal votes. If you ban early counting, and then try to ban late counting too, it sounds a lot like an attempt to just not count those pesky postal votes at all...

[NotATether]

"Yeah, this isn't looking good." - nutildah, in this post, on his preferred outcome of the 2020 Presidential Race.

According to The Guardian there are still almost 3 million Pennsylvania votes, 2 million Michigan votes and 350K North Carolina votes to count. They all have a much smaller proportion of margin, if these are added to Biden’s current 238 electoral votes then he gets very close to 270.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat

EDIT: Biden is leading in Wisconsin by a tiny margin

[Cnut237]

It's still looking fairly close, but edging I think towards a Biden win. At least, Trump has a more difficult route to victory.

Trump is ahead in N Carolina and Georgia, and will surely also pick up the few points from Alaska.
Latest news from Wisconsin has Biden 15k ahead with ~175k votes to be counted, and from Michigan has Trump ahead by 10k with ~500k still to be counted (but the expectation is that most of these will be Dem, and easily outweigh that current 10k deficit).
Pennsylvania is obviously a big one and will take some time to be counted, but even if Biden loses there, if he takes Wisconsin and Michigan I think that puts him close to the winning line.

Edit: within 10 minutes of writing that, Biden has now taken the lead in Michigan!

[suchmoon]

This is why Trump stated that they should stop counting votes and that the US have already a winner?

Unfortunately for Trump that's not how it works. All votes need to be counted. Even when media "calls" the results on election night, those states still keep counting and certify the results sometimes weeks later... something the general public doesn't usually care about and Trump seems to be playing with that ignorance.

We are going to be on hold for the winner during the next few hours. There are some states that might reverse the so far result and this is what Trump is afraid of right now...

Could be a few days in places like Pennsylvania. However if Biden takes NV, AZ, WI, and MI, which are closer to being complete than PA - it's over for Trump.

Edit: NYT removed their "needle" from Georgia... I'm still impressed by how close it is.

[Cnut237]

However if Biden takes NV, AZ, WI, and MI, which are closer to being complete than PA - it's over for Trump.

I think AZ already declared for Biden. If WI and MI - Biden is ahead in both - finish counting today, then NV would seal it* - not sure if NV have said when they expect to finish counting though.

*_{Seal it apart from the demands for recounts, official legal challenges, and gun-toting mobs roaming the streets.}

[suchmoon]

However if Biden takes NV, AZ, WI, and MI, which are closer to being complete than PA - it's over for Trump.

I think AZ already declared for Biden. If WI and MI - Biden is ahead in both - finish counting today, then NV would seal it* - not sure if NV have said when they expect to finish counting though.

*_{Seal it apart from the demands for recounts, official legal challenges, and gun-toting mobs roaming the streets.}

NYT - which is what I'm looking at - hasn't called AZ yet but yeah, it looks solidly in Biden's favor. Nearly all votes counted, Biden leads by 100k, not sure what they're waiting for. Late mail-ins?

Regarding Nevada:

The state’s election division announced Wednesday morning that no more results would be updated until noon Eastern on Thursday. Remaining votes include mail ballots received on Election Day, those that will arrive over the next week and provisional ballots.

[TwitchySeal]

Here we go, twitter rant has been initiated.  




Can I get a show of hands from anyone that believes Trump?  

My TDS is making it seem like he's definitely, 100% lying and really just trying take votes away from Americans because he doesn't want to lose his power.

[suchmoon]

Here we go, twitter rant has been initiated. 

He claims the evil states are controlled by Dems but MI/WI/PA have Republican legislatures and don't allow mail-ins to be counted before election day.

[coins4commies]

Do people really have a hard time believing democrats want Trump out so bad that they would cheat?  Did you not pay attention to the democratic primary? 

[suchmoon]

Do people really have a hard time believing democrats want Trump out so bad that they would cheat?  Did you not pay attention to the democratic primary? 

This implies Democrats would cheat in the closest-fought states, which are controlled by Republicans, and also cheated most polls to overestimate their chances. That really doesn't make sense.

[TwitchySeal]

It could well be that at 10 o’clock on election night, Trump is winning in Michigan, he’s winning in Pennsylvania, he’s winning in Wisconsin, and he gets on the television and he says, ‘Thank you, Americans, for reelecting me. It’s all over. Have a good day.’ But then, the next day, and the day following, all of those mail-in ballots start getting counted, and it turns out that Biden has won those states, at which point Trump says, ‘See? I told you the whole thing was fraudulent. I told you those mail-in ballots were crooked. And we’re not going to leave office.’ So that is a worry that I and a lot of people have.

- Bernard Sanders

[suchmoon]

NYT has a nifty chart for the remaining paths to victory:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-uncounted-votes-president.html

(scroll down to the tree-like thing).

BTW there was a snafu of some sort with the completed percentage in Arizona, so it's not yet 98%+ counted as some sites previously reported. So it could technically still be in play.

[theymos]

It looks like I'll probably end up being right about Biden winning, but I was right only through sheer dumb luck, since I was basing that mainly on polling, and the polling looks to be ridiculously off across the board. I thought that the polling methodology which these pollsters use seemed reasonable & science-based, and would probably be more accurate than 2016 (which wasn't even really that inaccurate), but I guess these pollsters actually have no idea what they're doing. Maybe the whole idea of random sampling is just too difficult to perform nowadays because nobody answers their phones, and online panels are self-selected rather than truly random. The big polling misses two presidential elections in a row is one of the main stories here, and the polling industry is going to have to make major changes if they want anyone to take them seriously going forward.

There's a chance that Trump could still pull it off, but it's difficult from here. He definitely can't lose GA or NC, which it looks like he might, and then he'd have to gain one or more (depending on which) of NV, WI, MI, or PA, all of which he's behind in. If it comes down to just one or maybe two states, I could see him successfully pulling some shenanigans to get a bunch of Democratic ballots thrown out, but it's not as if it's easy to do this: the courts are not just going to rubber-stamp anything that Trump wants, even if they're full of Republican judges, and it's not even easy to find stacks of ballots that you could somehow justify throwing out and which will be sufficiently Dem-leaning. Maybe Trump will try it, but I don't see it working if he has to "steal" several states this way, and even stealing one state like this is a bit of a long shot in itself. And while he might talk tough and refuse to ever concede, he's not actually going to refuse to leave the white house on inauguration day or anything like that.

It looks like the Republicans will retain the Senate, which I'm happy about. That means at least 2 years of gridlock. Biden can still do a lot of harm through the executive branch, and he will get bipartisan agreement on things like pro-war policies, but with the Republicans intentionally trying to obstruct him as much as possible, the damage will be limited. I'm especially happy that Gary Peters will apparently lose his MI Senate seat: I've seen several hearings with him participating, and he's a neoliberal authoritarian of the worst kind. (Not sure if his replacement is any better, though...)

[DaveF]

The other issue is and I have said it a few times. A downstate NY Democrat and a NY Republican probably agree on more things then a downstate NY Democrat and a NM Democrat. Or a SC Republican and a ND Republican. They would never admit it in public 

Yeah, a SC Republican is going to be for fracking but....are they going to risk re-election on it if it really becomes an issue.

I would like to think the "party line voting" that has been going on for years is going to have to change or sooner or later they are all going to get voted out on their asses.

-Dave

[Spendulus]

The other issue is and I have said it a few times. A downstate NY Democrat and a NY Republican probably agree on more things then a downstate NY Democrat and a NM Democrat. Or a SC Republican and a ND Republican. They would never admit it in public 

Yeah, a SC Republican is going to be for fracking but....are they going to risk re-election on it if it really becomes an issue.

I would like to think the "party line voting" that has been going on for years is going to have to change or sooner or later they are all going to get voted out on their asses.

-Dave

The ramp up to a totalitarian party requires utter orthodoxy.

[Cnut237]

It's looking very good for Biden now. Won WI, ahead in MI and NV... and projected to win PA by a decent margin. And Trump is throwing lawsuits in all directions... which is as strong an indicator as any of the way this is going. Apparently the protests from Trump supporters have started in Detroit. Let's hope this doesn't get violent.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/upshot/pennsylvania-election-results-ballots.html

Postal vote counts in PA so far match very closely to NYT projections (image on same page), so there's reason to believe the PA call by the NYT will be fairly accurate.

[TwitchySeal]

CNN just called Michigan.

I am now going to allow myself to get my hopes up.

[squatz1]

Looking at exit polls Biden should win Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is not so certain.

This is probably skewed by mail-ins. Which should favor Biden even more.

Yup, most likely.

Trump has pulled through and will probably win Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida.

Pennsylvania will probably end up going to Trump.

Trump will probably win this race IMO. Betting markets have completely flipped on their head here. But I guess there's still a lot of time.

No Pennsylvania is 90%+ going to Biden. They just have to count the absentee ballots. 2.6 Million of them. We won't know until Friday.

I don't know if the absentee ballots are going to be enough to propel Biden to victory there, depends on if the rest of the absentee ballots LOOK like the first batch in terms of how many of them are going to biden. If they're 4:1 Biden, then yes he'll be able to win, though if they're 3:1 Biden, it may not be enough.

Pretty sure it's not 2.6M though.

Senate is going to (most likely) end up Red though.

CNN just called Michigan.

I am now going to allow myself to get my hopes up.

This has been a WILD RIDE OF EMOTIONS LOL.

Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania are the ones that really matter here.

(Given I think GA and NC are going to end up for Trump)

[OgNasty]

When I went to bed Biden was behind in WI and MI, and now he's apparently going to win them both

Funny what happens during the dark of night, isn't it?

[nutildah]

When I went to bed Biden was behind in WI and MI, and now he's apparently going to win them both

Funny what happens during the dark of night, isn't it?

Votes get counted? In some states they will be counted all the way until Friday.