2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...

[philipma1957]

I am not sure what they will add in the next 10 months but I suspect I will need to order a lot of something .

So what's your plan, just buy the new S19s when they hit the market?

My plan is a bit different, I think buying mining gears in the middle of the bull cycle is really a bad idea when measured against holding bitcoin, in all the previous cycles we saw that most gains come in the last 2-3 months of the cycle and then the next 2-3 months will wipe out all those gains, it has always been the case and I don't see why would it change now.

So the theory is, by holding bitcoin when we go parabolic you can easily and slowly sell your coins, but with mining, it isn't the case, you will enjoy 2-3 months of good rewards and then that's it, 3 months later your rewards and the value of the mining gear will most likely be reduced by half in the best-case scenario, which is why I rather stay as liquid as possible especially since we are already 3 years into this cycle and what's left in it is most likely a LOT shorter than what has passed.

I am interested in other folk's plans in regards to expanding or otherwise existing.

Well we/I have been blessed with a wonderful year of mining topped off by hitting a few blocks on mmpool.org

We have acquired more power and will be doing more power again.

I am older 64 with 0 kids and no one to leave my vast fortune to. (sarcasm my fortune is not very vast)

I plan to mine to 68-71 years old and sell my share of the mine to my partners.

We have done well enough so far that becoming a loser is really hard to do.
The key is slow expansion whether it is over priced, correctly priced or under priced gear.

At the moment we are lopsided we have more gpus then we should
less L7 for Doge/LTC than we should and less
s19 than we should for BTC.

our big priority is s19 I would buy a futures s19 140th right now and wait for 2022 3rd quarter because I could get a deal if it switches in price.

I figure we need 3 s19 140 th machines Maybe we get one this month and wait until August for delivery.

It is not about buying a lot of them. As they are over priced.

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[kano]

4.69% 22674148233453.1 (22.7T)

Getting close to the previous top of 25T

Only 10.5% more to go to match that previous.

[stompix]

I am interested in other folk's plans in regards to expanding or otherwise existing.

I'm also curious what large mining companies that have orders with late 2022 or even 2023 delivery are thinking knowing that they will buy less efficient (by quite a large margin) gear 6 months after the release of this XP Vista wonder machine  .

I think a lot will depend on the price of the coin and profitability rate by the time the pre-orders start flying around, the small guys I think will most likely avoid it, in my case at least I'm limited by the amount of power I can burn a month, I might get away in spring and summer since there are no cereals grinders or pellets running 24/7 like now but what do I do, sell these and replace with more efficient, pay extra and wait for another a very! stressful period of looking how many days are left till you're even? And there is the risk, what if those are a flop and as reliable as the 17 series?

With cheap power even the S19s haven't managed to push the S9 out of mining yet, it's incredibly hard for me to picture S19j getting close to unprofitable at even at 10 cents and at the same time poeple making a killing with the XP version, the maths simple isn't there, or at least for me it isn't.

[philipma1957]

I am interested in other folk's plans in regards to expanding or otherwise existing.

I'm also curious what large mining companies that have orders with late 2022 or even 2023 delivery are thinking knowing that they will buy less efficient (by quite a large margin) gear 6 months after the release of this XP Vista wonder machine  .

I think a lot will depend on the price of the coin and profitability rate by the time the pre-orders start flying around, the small guys I think will most likely avoid it, in my case at least I'm limited by the amount of power I can burn a month, I might get away in spring and summer since there are no cereals grinders or pellets running 24/7 like now but what do I do, sell these and replace with more efficient, pay extra and wait for another a very! stressful period of looking how many days are left till you're even? And there is the risk, what if those are a flop and as reliable as the 17 series?

With cheap power even the S19s haven't managed to push the S9 out of mining yet, it's incredibly hard for me to picture S19j getting close to unprofitable at even at 10 cents and at the same time poeple making a killing with the XP version, the maths simple isn't there, or at least for me it isn't.

Well our problem is too much power not being used.

and of course really over priced gear.

We went from 115kwatts to 300kwatts and can go to 800kwatts

but the price of gear to add 500kwatts worth of is stupid high.

say 500/3 = 167 new s19 xp could be added at a cost god knows what.  pretend 10000 x 167 = 1,670,000 with august delivery.

The long wait for that much gear makes for stupid high risk.

Or buy a few s19j now direct from bitmain at 12000 + 3000 = 15000 each for 104th 104th is 52th for me that is about 20 a day or 15000/20 = 750 days to break even which is a hard buy for me.

I did see some whatsminers with better prices.

But frankly there are no true deals on BTC asics.


Which is why I have become lopsided to gpus.

[mikeywith]

With cheap power even the S19s haven't managed to push the S9 out of mining yet, it's incredibly hard for me to picture S19j getting close to unprofitable at even at 10 cents and at the same time poeple making a killing with the XP version, the maths simple isn't there, or at least for me it isn't.

With the right power rate, nothing is unprofitable, the majority of my gears run at 85-90w/th and I was always running them at a profit, but mining at a profit alone isn't the only indication of a successful business model, if I have to wait for 1-2 years to breakeven on my BTC or fiat investment while taking the risk of owning a mining gear that could very well just die on me halfway I rather just sit on the BTC I have and watch it grow against fiat without having to worry about it as it sits safe and sound in a cold wallet.

The way I picture us is 2017 all over again, I would argue that the cycle has lengthened by around 6 months or so, so I see it as May-June of 2017, looking back at the chart, difficulty and gear prices back then, you can tell that the best move during those last a few months of the cycle was to stay liquid in BTC and sell your way up because a few months later those who paid 2-5k for an S9 were looking back with bitterness at the decision they made.

Not to say that they weren't able to hit ROI later on, but a few months later those mining gears were sold for a fraction of the price mentioned, do I pay 4k for a used M20s when I can probably get it for $500 when this mania phase is over? or do I buy an S9i for $600 despite the fact that I paid $80 for it last year before this fomo takes over? to me, it doesn't make sense at all, and I am very confident that mining gear prices will come crashing next year, the best and the most effienct gear will take 50% hit.

I rather buy them cheap when everyone is selling them not when everyone is buying them, looking at the major telegram and FB groups people are just looking to buy, the demand on all mining gears is sky high, even from those who don't know how to use an online calculator and asking "how much x gear is going for and how much does it generate" are buying mining gears every day, they can't possibly end up making a profit, no business functions this way.

[wndsnb]

The way I picture us is 2017 all over again, I would argue that the cycle has lengthened by around 6 months or so, so I see it as May-June of 2017, looking back at the chart, difficulty and gear prices back then, you can tell that the best move during those last a few months of the cycle was to stay liquid in BTC and sell your way up because a few months later those who paid 2-5k for an S9 were looking back with bitterness at the decision they made.

But now we have other major forces, supply chain disruption and chip shortages are changing the game. A year ago I was saying that the market would always push profitability down to marginal profits with 5c power since the industrial miners would just keep buying gear. But now they can't get the gear. There seems to be no end in sight for these conditions, so maybe it isn't so crazy to pay $90/TH for a miner that at today's price and diff will ROI in 9 months. People that bought s19s when they were first released have already ROIed and are now making lots of BTC.

[mikeywith]

People that bought s19s when they were first released have already ROIed and are now making lots of BTC.

I remember those S19s pro were first selling for $2633 when BTC price was about $7150 back on 15th April 2020 (got all these info saved), with U.S taxes and shipping the total cost was $3500 which means those guys paid 0.48BTC for a single S19 pro which they received on June (after the halving), the difficulty went from 14T to 25T back to 13T and had all kind of ups and downs.

So if we say the average diff has been somewhere in between at 19.5T, then for the duration of 534 days since they received the miner they would have made 0.367 BTC before the power bill (using Viabtc online calculator), even if we were to use 15T as the average diff that would still be a total profit of 0.475BTC without counting the power bill.

Even for someone who didn't have to pay the U.S tax and doesn't have free power, it's unlikely that they have ROIed long ago, maybe they just hit that point or about to, of course, you could add about 0.15BTC for the current gear value.

Keep in mind that this bad looking ROI would have been a lot worse if China didn't ban mining and we didn't have this chip shortage going on, if not for all of that, all those who rushed to buy the S19 pro when it landed wouldn't be even close to halfway to ROI, of course, this doesn't to always have to be the case, but it's gives a good indication that  ROI is usually far more extended than what it looks like.

I totally agree with the stuff you mentioned about chip shortage, but we know that have been a major factor in helping those who bought the expensive S19s and that help alone wasn't good enough, not even with China banning mining, so unless the shortage gets more serious which I doubt, chances are nothing is going to change in terms of the ROI terms, but hey, I am more often wrong than right, so.

[PrimeNumber7]

Even for someone who didn't have to pay the U.S tax and doesn't have free power, it's unlikely that they have ROIed long ago, maybe they just hit that point or about to, of course, you could add about 0.15BTC for the current gear value.

Someone buying a S19j Pro directly from bitmain today would pay approximately 0.26BTC.

I would judge a miner's success based on the total return versus how long it takes someone to achieve ROI with their equipment. Although I do agree the two are generally correlated.

At $3500, the S19s pro was probably priced too high to ROI in BTC terms unless you had very cheap electricity (absent the China ban and chip shortage). Bitmain obviously priced their gear this way because they want to maximize their own profits.

While the China ban is likely to be permanent, the miners that were mining in China are likely to eventually find a new home, and the chip shortage will eventually get resolved.

[Biffa]

On average it seems all the manufacturers base their price on an ROI of about a year.

Yes that time scale can be caught out by diff changes and price changes, but then it also depends on whether you count ROI in $$ or BTC.

[philipma1957]

People that bought s19s when they were first released have already ROIed and are now making lots of BTC.

I remember those S19s pro were first selling for $2633 when BTC price was about $7150 back on 15th April 2020 (got all these info saved), with U.S taxes and shipping the total cost was $3500 which means those guys paid 0.48BTC for a single S19 pro which they received on June (after the halving), the difficulty went from 14T to 25T back to 13T and had all kind of ups and downs.

So if we say the average diff has been somewhere in between at 19.5T, then for the duration of 534 days since they received the miner they would have made 0.367 BTC before the power bill (using Viabtc online calculator), even if we were to use 15T as the average diff that would still be a total profit of 0.475BTC without counting the power bill.

Even for someone who didn't have to pay the U.S tax and doesn't have free power, it's unlikely that they have ROIed long ago, maybe they just hit that point or about to, of course, you could add about 0.15BTC for the current gear value.

Keep in mind that this bad looking ROI would have been a lot worse if China didn't ban mining and we didn't have this chip shortage going on, if not for all of that, all those who rushed to buy the S19 pro when it landed wouldn't be even close to halfway to ROI, of course, this doesn't to always have to be the case, but it's gives a good indication that  ROI is usually far more extended than what it looks like.

I totally agree with the stuff you mentioned about chip shortage, but we know that have been a major factor in helping those who bought the expensive S19s and that help alone wasn't good enough, not even with China banning mining, so unless the shortage gets more serious which I doubt, chances are nothing is going to change in terms of the ROI terms, but hey, I am more often wrong than right, so.

The single one we purchased was purchased with cash not btc.

We turned 3500 or 3600 cash into a lot more than 3600 cash.

The gear still runs and could sell for a lot more  than 3600 cash.

When you bring in btc and figure was it better than buying buying btc the answer is on the day we purchased.  Maybe July of 2020 It was better to do cash for the machine rather than buying coins As  coins were more costly when we purchased it. Maybe 8 or 9 k not 7 k

I don't compare mining coin to buying coin as US TAX laws treat one as a business and one as investment.

I am subject to US Tax Laws and must pay in cash. The single s19 made serious cash according to the tax law.

[mikeywith]

The single one we purchased was purchased with cash not btc.

That doesn't change the fact that when buying a mining a gear that mines bitcoin you are essentially buying bitcoin in the future, you could have used that amount of cash to buy BTC and your total BTC holdings compared to what the miner has generated so far is obviously more, but you have a good point about the tax thing "which I am not aware about since we pay no taxes for both buying/selling bitcoin and mining gears".

Bifa also brought up a good point, it all depends on whether your ROI is based on the amount of BTC or just fiat, am not saying there is a wrong or right way, but to me, if it can't ROI in BTC why even bother? holding BTC is a lot less risk, less effort, no power bills, no maintenance, cleaning, downtime, and whatnot, and if the value of that BTC drops against fiat, it also means the income in fiat from the miner has dropped.

To me, mining easily beats both BTC and cash when we are in the sideway market right after a major crash, when the price isn't doing much for a year or two, mining generates passive income in BTC and miners usually make a lot more BTC than just holding btc or fiat, mining also isn't all bad in a bear market, but it fails big time in a bull market when measured against holding just btc.

But again, it all depends on everybody's goals and risk tolerance, there is no right or wrong way of doing this, everyone should be study the market from their own perspective and decide what works best for them, heck, it's hard enough to tell people to invested or not invest in BTC, let alone mining BTC.

[philipma1957]

yeah in us we have three sets of  tax laws involved on the federal level.

state laws

finally some city laws.

Spend 1000 usd Say feb 1 hold less than 1 year and sell. for 2 k

that is short term i pay federal and state short term tax on it. higher rate.

spend 1000 usd say feb 1 hold 1 plus year i pay federal and state long term tax on it. lower rate

now lets take mining.

I mine on a small pool
I mine on a big pool.

mmpool did not hit a single block for four years.

all that hash  can be counted as an expense  each year against my gains from viabtc.

and all the hash expense for viabtc can be counted as an expense against viabtc earnings.

this year i have great earnings
i have long term cap gain
i have short term cap gain
i have two hits on mmpool
i have viabtc earnings.

my return will be filed  in oct 15 2022 for the 2021 year. it will be the highest earnings ever and by far the most complex return.

but I am a mining/selling company

I mine
I buy gear
I sell gear
I rent gear as the owner of the gear
I rent gear as the user of the gear.
I buy some coin
I sell some coin.

I figure my return for 2021 will have 100+ pages of info.

my return for 2020 was about 40 pages

To be honest in 2012 I could have purchased 1000 usd worth of coins at 6 a coin.

giving me 167 coins.

I could have sold 10 at 1000 bucks
and 10 at 5000 bucks
and 10 at 10000 bucks
and 10 at 25000 bucks
and 10 at 50000 bucks.

I would have 117 coins in hand and over 850000 in sales

who knew?

[mikeywith]

I figure my return for 2021 will have 100+ pages of info.

my return for 2020 was about 40 pages

The state should pay you for writing those pages, jokes aside, it seems like a lot of work needs to be done to prepare your tax files, I am really so glad I don't have that here, the only time I have to report income is if the business is owned by a company of mine and sells stuff to the government, however, if the business is personal-owned and doesn't sell anything to the government, I am free to do whatever I want with my income.

of course, in return, we don't have fancy highways and a perfect health care system and whatnot, but with the almost free power rate I have, I prefer that things stay this way for as long as possible.

Now back to mining, I have already started negotiating for a 1MW facility, hopefully, by the Q2-Q3 next year it will be ready, and then eventually the plan will be 10-15 ph in S9s and a few a bit more effienct gears, but because I want to spend more time with my family, this time around I will have someone to manage the whole farm and share with them a handsome percentage of the profit, this mining game is addicted and I can't seem to stop, but this 10-15ph will be it for me, and from there on, just mine and hodl.

[philipma1957]

I figure my return for 2021 will have 100+ pages of info.

my return for 2020 was about 40 pages

The state should pay you for writing those pages, jokes aside, it seems like a lot of work needs to be done to prepare your tax files, I am really so glad I don't have that here, the only time I have to report income is if the business is owned by a company of mine and sells stuff to the government, however, if the business is personal-owned and doesn't sell anything to the government, I am free to do whatever I want with my income.

of course, in return, we don't have fancy highways and a perfect health care system and whatnot, but with the almost free power rate I have, I prefer that things stay this way for as long as possible.

Now back to mining, I have already started negotiating for a 1MW facility, hopefully, by the Q2-Q3 next year it will be ready, and then eventually the plan will be 10-15 ph in S9s and a few a bit more effienct gears, but because I want to spend more time with my family, this time around I will have someone to manage the whole farm and share with them a handsome percentage of the profit, this mining game is addicted and I can't seem to stop, but this 10-15ph will be it for me, and from there on, just mine and hodl.

Fuck taxes they are far too complex. I am sitting at a desk in NJ watching narcos and typing this. My wife is retired IRS she has 65 books on Taxes and they are for federal rules not states and cities.


 Even though we are now a small business and I am 64 I do like to mine.

My exit plan is 70 and out.  Travel with the wife to Italy and Australia

[stompix]

of course, in return, we don't have fancy highways and a perfect health care system and whatnot

We have those in the EU but seriously, f*** the US tax system and their way of doing it.
Even ours is probably more complex than other countries but still, I saw what you have to do in the US and I think I would choose tax evasion rather than this and I used to do the accounting for my parent's company for 4 years...

this mining game is addicted and I can't seem to stop, but this 10-15ph will be it for me, and from there on, just mine and hodl.

Nice plan, but yeah, this is really addictive, even though I've made my mind of sticking to what I have every time I hear even a rumor instantly my mind goes into hunting for more cheap power mode. I toyed a lot with some ideas but to date, I've managed to keep it under control, if I had the cheap energy you have access to probably by now I would have surrounded myself by miners.

Bifa also brought up a good point, it all depends on whether your ROI is based on the amount of BTC or just fiat, am not saying there is a wrong or right way, but to me, if it can't ROI in BTC why even bother?

Bear mode activated: 
If you bought your gear with BTC at 50k and then the price went down to 30k, probably a lot would stop talking about return BTC as you would have actually lost half by now, what if BTC drops to 40k let's say and it doesn't move from there for two years...
I think that some do this for their own comfort, I do the same when I want a fluffy picture, from BTC to $ and from $ to BTC how the wind blows.

Current Pace:   103.0547%  (636 / 617.15 expected, 18.85 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.7578% and +3.3598%

Seems like this time we won't get another 4%, about time it started slowing, at least a bit!

[philipma1957]

Maybe we do 3% vs 4.5%

[alh]

Maybe we do 3% vs 4.5%

While a small increase is better than a large increase, BTC price has fallen now to less than $58K. Folks that have to sell BTC to pay the bills, won't like that.

[kano]

Not really, it's more likely they may have to curb wasting money like they've been doing for the last month and a half.

Seriously if anyone is affected by the current drop, they deserve to be.

[philipma1957]

Not really, it's more likely they may have to curb wasting money like they've been doing for the last month and a half.

Seriously if anyone is affected by the current drop, they deserve to be.

yep

they over purchased gear

or they had high power costs in the first place.

[mikeywith]

Given how expensive S9s and the other old mining gears are, there is a good possibility that many miners were actually affected by this relatively small correction, I have always said that most folks in this business don't have a clue about what they are doing, almost all the members here including newbies know a lot more about mining than most folks who spend most of their time on Facebook.

Can you imagine that people are asking questions like "why did my payouts drop compared to last week, should I change the mining pool"? I swear, there are folks that literally don't understand that their payouts will go down when the difficulty goes up, they don't even know about the difficulty aspect altogether, heck, I am willing to bet that many of them don't even realize that they are mining at a loss until enough time has passed.

Anyway, I believe the sudden drop in hashrate was also to do with the power outages in Kazakhstan, I saw a few miners who have their gears hosted there talk about this earlier, also the government there is cracking down on the illegal mining farms that don't declare themselves as mining operations to avoid paying the 15% or whatever the tariff on electricity used for mining is.