OSCARS 2021- Nominees, Odds and Predictions!

[Rikafip]

Quite a few people in this thread have missed a key point about the Acadamy Awards (Oscars) in that it has become a very topical platform for political statements to be made.  Look to the winners of the recent Emmy Awards and you will see strong voter preferences for performances in very relevant to today stories.

The Oscars will be no different.

That's nothing new really, that Oscar has been used by both actors and Academy for political statements. From Marlon Brando and his refusal to pick up Oscar given for his role in The Godfather due portrayal of Native Americans in the movies, 2004 when Crash won the Oscar (undeservingly ) and up until now. So in my opinion, no much point wasting time on that.


I've updated the first post with odds of  ten categories that were missing them initially

[Stalker22]

Quite a few people in this thread have missed a key point about the Acadamy Awards (Oscars) in that it has become a very topical platform for political statements to be made.  Look to the winners of the recent Emmy Awards and you will see strong voter preferences for performances in very relevant to today stories.

The Oscars will be no different.

That's nothing new really, that Oscar has been used by both actors and Academy for political statements. From Marlon Brando and his refusal to pick up Oscar given for his role in The Godfather due portrayal of Native Americans in the movies, 2004 when Crash won the Oscar (undeservingly ) and up until now. So in my opinion, no much point wasting time on that.

The Academy Awards have been more than just about movies since their inception. Actors and filmmakers have a long tradition of taking action and speaking out about what they believe is right at the ceremony. And they have no plans to abandon the tradition anytime soon.

[aesma]

I do not get it, I watched the trial of Chicago 7 to see what it was about, it was second in odds after nomadland, and I checked all others out before as well this was the last one. I have to say I really didn't like any of the movies, what is this point of Oscars only given to movies that are "artistic", like a lot of monologues, a lot of dialogues, a lot of feelings, like it's so artistic, I end up feeling like banana peeled to wall worth 150k in art form type of deal here.

I do not think this was the real thing. Go check the box office top 100 and you will see maybe 20 of them are like that, the top 10 is all super heroes and star wars and alike, you do not see anything like these movies in there. Why pick what people do not watch as the best movie? I mean whichever movie was viewed the most that year should be the best picture, that's for sure, these movies wouldn't get 1 billion dollar level even if every single cinema in the world showed it. This year is exceptionally bad.

That will be the fairest way to give awards as it will be based on data that cannot be manipulated, however we must also admit that many times popular movies are not really that good either, the issue comes when those that are supposed to vote for good movies instead vote for movies that align with their values and with what they want to transmit to the pubic, at that point it is not longer an award ceremony to the best movies and instead it becomes nothing more but a platform to disseminate their own views to the world, which is why less and less people watch the Oscars.

Of course it's manipulated. Studios spend hundreds of millions of dollars advertising their latest blockbusters, when other moviemakers could make 50 movies with that same amount of money !

To win Best picture at the Oscars you must first be a candidate, then you must do a lot of promotional stuff, TV interviews on all the channels, basically spend millions again just to have a chance.

[Stedsm]

Of course it's manipulated. Studios spend hundreds of millions of dollars advertising their latest blockbusters, when other moviemakers could make 50 movies with that same amount of money !

To win Best picture at the Oscars you must first be a candidate, then you must do a lot of promotional stuff, TV interviews on all the channels, basically spend millions again just to have a chance.

Can't they simply but the Jury who is going to judge and declare the winners? Are the movies that win Oscar, worthless? I believe that those who try to make their 'movie team' win are the ones who may have earned a very hefty amount of money because of such movies and is trying their best to let those best candidates get these awards? That's because then, people will DEFINITELY go and watch their movies.

[Saint-loup]

Thank you for this thread but if you're asking people favorites you shouldn't put odds here because people will be influenced by that. And you won't get reliable opinions.
The biggest favorites are of course Chadwick Boseman, Chloe Zhao and Nomadland.
For the best actress, Carey Mulligan was already the favorite at the Golden Globes but finally Andra Day won it so I think 5.0 for Andra Day is too high, she is a serious contender actually.

yes, there's no need to put the odds beside their name. i think, better add the sites (crypto bookies preferably, but hard to find) which are including this oscars betting. that will be helpful to gamblers here.

for fiat bookies, you can check these sites - 1 or 2 or 3

the last site, it listed https://www.bovada.lv/ - and it says bitcoin and bitcoin cash accepted

I didn't know this Latvian bookmaker (bovada.lv) but it's currently blocking IP addresses from my country, do you know why?
Markets for all Oscar categories are available on Stake.com, so I'll will use this one and recommend it instead of yours I think.

[STT]

There is definitely a campaign and budget to pay people to drum up support for oscar wins and nominations.   I'd still say oscars go with movies that deserve it in the main, so long as there is competition in that year you are talking the cream of the crop.   Just watching any of the nominated movies is probably fine, many people consider the win just personal preference and being nominated will boost sales enough that it has distinguished a movie from the crowd.
 

shouldn't put odds here because people will be influenced by that. And you won't get reliable opinions.

People are always biased to the popular and its already known who are the favourite actors.   Actors sometimes do awfully in a role and dont deserve any recognition or possibly they just keep playing the same role and its not worth any special praise.   The oscars itself has its own bias and its towards the greatest drama I think not politics, acting does have a left wing bias imo but its not universal so I dont label oscars political in that way.  I would say sentimentalism or something which is not a criticism exactly.

[bryant.coleman]

Don't know much about the others, but it now looks confirmed that Chadwick Boseman will be selected as the best actor. I don't have any issues with  posthumous nominations for Oscar, but I believe that the rules should be same for everyone. Heath Ledger never got the nomination, despite the fact that he deserved it in 2009. He was instead given the "best supporting actor" award.

[swogerino]

I haven't watched any of these movies but I am affected by the odds.Nomadland has an 1.4 odd while the others have really high odds compared to this.I don't think we can judge by the odds in movies like we can in sports because each one of us has different emotions during a movie.Some people may prefer the movie with the highest odd so I would not bet on any of these events.

[Saint-loup]

There is definitely a campaign and budget to pay people to drum up support for oscar wins and nominations.   I'd still say oscars go with movies that deserve it in the main, so long as there is competition in that year you are talking the cream of the crop.   Just watching any of the nominated movies is probably fine, many people consider the win just personal preference and being nominated will boost sales enough that it has distinguished a movie from the crowd.
  

shouldn't put odds here because people will be influenced by that. And you won't get reliable opinions.

People are always biased to the popular and its already known who are the favourite actors.   Actors sometimes do awfully in a role and dont deserve any recognition or possibly they just keep playing the same role and its not worth any special praise.   The oscars itself has its own bias and its towards the greatest drama I think not politics, acting does have a left wing bias imo but its not universal so I dont label oscars political in that way.  I would say sentimentalism or something which is not a criticism exactly.

Why did you quote my post without quoting my name please? If you want to say something about my words please quote my name to notify me so I'm able to answer your comments on them. Otherwise if it's only a way to write random shitposts quietly, don't do that with my posts please, thank you very much.

Thank you for this thread but if you're asking people favorites you shouldn't put odds here because people will be influenced by that. And you won't get reliable opinions.
The biggest favorites are of course Chadwick Boseman, Chloe Zhao and Nomadland.
For the best actress, Carey Mulligan was already the favorite at the Golden Globes but finally Andra Day won it so I think 5.0 for Andra Day is too high, she is a serious contender actually.

[Rikafip]

The Academy Awards have been more than just about movies since their inception. Actors and filmmakers have a long tradition of taking action and speaking out about what they believe is right at the ceremony. And they have no plans to abandon the tradition anytime soon.

Yep. So pretty much pointless wasting the time about that subject as they do what they do. Sometimes they will vote based on whatever agenda they are pushing on at the moment, sometimes because studio spent shit load of money on lobbying and sometimes truly the best performance (or at least good enough that people won't complain too much) will win the Oscar.

Don't know much about the others, but it now looks confirmed that Chadwick Boseman will be selected as the best actor. I don't have any issues with  posthumous nominations for Oscar, but I believe that the rules should be same for everyone. Heath Ledger never got the nomination, despite the fact that he deserved it in 2009. He was instead given the "best supporting actor" award.

As a matter of fact, Heath Ledger was nominated in "Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role" category back in 2006 for his role in Brokeback Mountain (if it was up to me I would have give him Oscar, but competition that years was tough, and it would be unfair to say that Philip Seymour Hoffman winning that Oscar was undeserving). Regarding his Oscar for "Best Supporting Actor", it wouldn't make much sense to nominate him for the Leading Role as he simply wasn't a lead role in The Dark Knight.

And yeah, Chadwick Boseman will probably win an Oscar, but in my mind I have no doubt who actually deserved it, and that is Anthony Hopkins.

[bryant.coleman]

I haven't watched any of these movies but I am affected by the odds.Nomadland has an 1.4 odd while the others have really high odds compared to this.I don't think we can judge by the odds in movies like we can in sports because each one of us has different emotions during a movie.Some people may prefer the movie with the highest odd so I would not bet on any of these events.

A lot of talk about Nomadland, and people claim that it is almost assured of the prize for best movie. I checked the odds for other movies, but they are far behind. The Trial of the Chicago 7 seems to be in the second place, but there is a wide gap between the two. Moonlight and Hidden Figures are also talked about as potential nominations. A few others in picture are Minari, Promising Young Woman and Judas and the Black
Messiah.

[Rikafip]

I haven't watched any of these movies but I am affected by the odds.Nomadland has an 1.4 odd while the others have really high odds compared to this.I don't think we can judge by the odds in movies like we can in sports because each one of us has different emotions during a movie.Some people may prefer the movie with the highest odd so I would not bet on any of these events.

A lot of talk about Nomadland, and people claim that it is almost assured of the prize for best movie. I checked the odds for other movies, but they are far behind. The Trial of the Chicago 7 seems to be in the second place, but there is a wide gap between the two. Moonlight and Hidden Figures are also talked about as potential nominations. A few others in picture are Minari, Promising Young Woman and Judas and the Black
Messiah.

The thing that I don't understand is how Trial of the Chicago 7 has such a low odds ( and high chances for the win). For me personally it was an average movie, and I am a big fan of courtroom dramas. I just expected more from it.

When I sum it all up, I like the Nomadland the most. It's kinda melancholic and almost made in documentary style+superb photography but definitely not movie for everyone and I can understand why someone might not like it. Close 2nd for me is The Father, and I really hope that some miracle happens and Anthony Hopkins gets his well deserved Oscar.

[FatFork]

The thing that I don't understand is how Trial of the Chicago 7 has such a low odds ( and high chances for the win). For me personally it was an average movie, and I am a big fan of courtroom dramas. I just expected more from it.

Yeah, I've read a lot of online reviews for "Trial of the Chicago 7", but most everyone agrees that it's an average movie at best. Personally, I'm not sure about the nomination worth, but that's the Academy. I'm not sure about the low odds; it may be related to the total number of nominations for "Trial" or the fact that Sacha Baron Cohen is also involved in this movie.

[joker_josue]

I think the winner of the best film is going to be "Nomadland".

But Academy has a tendency, to reward those who are more profitable or who will give a greater advantage, for Academy.

And I see in "Nomadland", one of those cases. At a time when talking about women's rights, especially in the US cinema world, we have a nominated film that was written and directed by women, about the history of women, and with actresses who performed well, it has everything to win.

[Rikafip]

Yeah, I've read a lot of online reviews for "Trial of the Chicago 7", but most everyone agrees that it's an average movie at best. Personally, I'm not sure about the nomination worth, but that's the Academy. I'm not sure about the low odds; it may be related to the total number of nominations for "Trial" or the fact that Sacha Baron Cohen is also involved in this movie.

It's just that film is about the stuff that Academy usually likes and that fits the narrative and that's why all the praise. To be honest, I didn't even like Sacha Baron Cohen that much in a movie. Few times in the movie he let his British accent gets out. Some say its on purpose as that's how the guy he portrayed talked, but when some interview, it turned out that wasn't really the case.

But Academy has a tendency, to reward those who are more profitable or who will give a greater advantage, for Academy.

And I see in "Nomadland", one of those cases. At a time when talking about women's rights, especially in the US cinema world, we have a nominated film that was written and directed by women, about the history of women, and with actresses who performed well, it has everything to win.

I do agree that Academy  tends to award movies that fits the agenda, but based on what you think that Nomadland is about, I am certain that you haven't seen the movie at all, or you completely misunderstood it. Either way, it's not about "history of women" or feminism at all. It's more about a death of American dream. After watching it, I do understand why it's a clear favorite as I enjoyed it a lot. Just to add that movie is definitely not everyone's cup of tea.

[joker_josue]

I do agree that Academy  tends to award movies that fits the agenda, but based on what you think that Nomadland is about, I am certain that you haven't seen the movie at all, or you completely misunderstood it. Either way, it's not about "history of women" or feminism at all. It's more about a death of American dream. After watching it, I do understand why it's a clear favorite as I enjoyed it a lot. Just to add that movie is definitely not everyone's cup of tea.

I didn't mean to say you're a feminist. What I meant is that it is a story told by women.
I'm not saying it's better or worse than the others on the list. Because I think they are all almost at the same level.

But those on digital platforms are not going to win for sure. And of the options that are left, this is what fits on the agenda.

[Rikafip]

I didn't mean to say you're a feminist. What I meant is that it is a story told by women.
I'm not saying it's better or worse than the others on the list. Because I think they are all almost at the same level.

I didn't say that you said I am a feminist lol, but you said that Nomadland is about history of women and I don't understand how you came to that conclusion, if you watched the movie. It's true that this year we have many dramas nominated which is understandable due covid situation.

If you I have to rate Oscar nominated movies from best to worse, this is how it would look like: Nomadland>The Father>Mank>Sound of Metal>Minari>Judas and the Black Messiah>Promising Young Woman>The Trial of The Chicago 7.

[Sithara007]

As a matter of fact, Heath Ledger was nominated in "Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role" category back in 2006 for his role in Brokeback Mountain (if it was up to me I would have give him Oscar, but competition that years was tough, and it would be unfair to say that Philip Seymour Hoffman winning that Oscar was undeserving). Regarding his Oscar for "Best Supporting Actor", it wouldn't make much sense to nominate him for the Leading Role as he simply wasn't a lead role in The Dark Knight.

And yeah, Chadwick Boseman will probably win an Oscar, but in my mind I have no doubt who actually deserved it, and that is Anthony Hopkins.

There is nothing like a posthumous award and therefore the Oscar for best actor should be given to the best performance irrespective of whether that individual is alive or not. Therefore I agree with you that Anthony Hopkins deserves the award much more than Chadwick Boseman. But under current political circumstances, it will be impossible for the jury to give the award to anyone other than Chadwick Boseman. Even if they want to do that, they can't. That's the bitter truth.   

[joker_josue]

I didn't mean to say you're a feminist. What I meant is that it is a story told by women.
I'm not saying it's better or worse than the others on the list. Because I think they are all almost at the same level.

I didn't say that you said I am a feminist lol, but you said that Nomadland is about history of women and I don't understand how you came to that conclusion, if you watched the movie. It's true that this year we have many dramas nominated which is understandable due covid situation.

I referred to the film. 

[bbc.reporter]

Another storyline for the winner of the best actress category might be because of black lives matter, the academy might vote for Viola Davis or Andra Day and have a black woman as the best actress of the year hehe. Their odds are 3.17 and 6.17.