OSCARS 2021- Nominees, Odds and Predictions!

[bbc.reporter]

I used to be very excited about the Oscars with my family watching almost everything and then making predictions of the winners in every nomination since I was a kid. However, I really think that over the last few years TV shows progressed and became way deeper than they used to be, whereas movies are becoming increasingly more disappointing. And sure, there are always some good ones, but the Academy seems to have stopped noticing them. For instance, I loved Tenet and was sure that it would get a bunch of nominations (including the one for Best Picture), but it only got two minor ones. And I've watched Nomadland which is not a bad movie, but it's not great either, and I think it's a little sad that it's most likely to get the Best Picture award.
I also don't get why Borat has such high odds on the Best Adapted Screenplay, as it's a very decent movie that IMO deserves this win. It looks dumb and the style is certainly not for everyone, but it's deeper than it looks, unmasking the problems of right-wing populism, COVID skepticism, and treatment of women. I guess I'll place some money on it, just in case
And Frances Mcdormand played nicely in Nomadland, so I think I'll bet on her for the Best Actress award as well. However, she does already have two of these, so maybe she's indeed not very likely to win another one.

The director of Nomadland is a Chinese born woman from Beijing. The skeptical me is thinking that the Chinese communist party can manipulate the results and have the movie win all major nominations as a manifestation of their global power and their arrival. China has been manipulating Hollywood already.

The best picture, the best adapted screenplay and the best actress will be won by Nomadland.

https://www.heritage.org/asia/heritage-explains/how-china-taking-control-hollywood

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

I think that my bet will be going between The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Judas and the Black Messiah, I really like this kind of movies that are based on real accounts so I don't really care if I lose a bet but I am going to be rooting for this two films. Considering the current social and political climate, I think that those that cater more on political and social issues are going to win those awards.

[TheNineClub]

I used to be very excited about the Oscars with my family watching almost everything and then making predictions of the winners in every nomination since I was a kid. However, I really think that over the last few years TV shows progressed and became way deeper than they used to be, whereas movies are becoming increasingly more disappointing. And sure, there are always some good ones, but the Academy seems to have stopped noticing them. For instance, I loved Tenet and was sure that it would get a bunch of nominations (including the one for Best Picture), but it only got two minor ones. And I've watched Nomadland which is not a bad movie, but it's not great either, and I think it's a little sad that it's most likely to get the Best Picture award.
I also don't get why Borat has such high odds on the Best Adapted Screenplay, as it's a very decent movie that IMO deserves this win. It looks dumb and the style is certainly not for everyone, but it's deeper than it looks, unmasking the problems of right-wing populism, COVID skepticism, and treatment of women. I guess I'll place some money on it, just in case
And Frances Mcdormand played nicely in Nomadland, so I think I'll bet on her for the Best Actress award as well. However, she does already have two of these, so maybe she's indeed not very likely to win another one.

The director of Nomadland is a Chinese born woman from Beijing. The skeptical me is thinking that the Chinese communist party can manipulate the results and have the movie win all major nominations as a manifestation of their global power and their arrival. China has been manipulating Hollywood already.

The best picture, the best adapted screenplay and the best actress will be won by Nomadland.

https://www.heritage.org/asia/heritage-explains/how-china-taking-control-hollywood

It's not like Chinese directors (or Chinese movies for that matter) have never won an oscar. Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon (numerous categories for either winning or nominated), Life of Pi (Ang Lee has won also in other categories or was nominated), James Wong Howe for cinematography on numerous films (both won and was nominated), The Last Emperor had an Oscar awarded film score.

[justdimin]

There's a lot of good movies nowadays, honestly and thanks to Netflix for bringing such good movies, the awards is just a consolation price for those good movies, they are still the best for me.

I disagree with you a little bit. Netflix doesn't have a lot of good movies right now, so far it's more of an exception. If you don't count documentaries because there are a lot of them and a lot of cool ones. The only good Netflix movie I can think of is The Irishman. But they do have a lot of great series. I like the fact that they have not only American soap operas, but also from different European countries such as the German series Dark. I like their strategy to produce series, Netflix and HBO are the main producers of TV series.

And as for the Oscars, I think this award is more dead than alive. The studios don't give money to good movies with original storylines. They make Avengers and Fast and Furious because they make a lot of money. I think there is some kind of crisis in cinema right now. Everything has become too commercialized.

I think it is obvious that Netflix put a bit of a pressure in the cinema business, I mean the places that you go to watch movies, that has been a bit of a difficult thing these days, but that's about it, there is nothing that would be hurtful to the movie business itself, they are just producing movies just like any other production company and they are just putting those movies into netflix instead of the cinemas and that's about it.

So, I do not think that netflix hurts the movie world, they are in fact helping it during this pandemic period by publishing everything while cinemas are closed or rarely anyone goes there. Which is why I think in the future the movie business will grow to be bigger and better because I believe that people will be subscribed to many stuff like hbo, netflix, disney plus, amazon and so forth instead of going to movies, and movies will be made with all that guaranteed money.

[imstillthebest]

There's a lot of good movies nowadays, honestly and thanks to Netflix for bringing such good movies, the awards is just a consolation price for those good movies, they are still the best for me.

I disagree with you a little bit. Netflix doesn't have a lot of good movies right now, so far it's more of an exception. If you don't count documentaries because there are a lot of them and a lot of cool ones. The only good Netflix movie I can think of is The Irishman. But they do have a lot of great series. I like the fact that they have not only American soap operas, but also from different European countries such as the German series Dark. I like their strategy to produce series, Netflix and HBO are the main producers of TV series.

And as for the Oscars, I think this award is more dead than alive. The studios don't give money to good movies with original storylines. They make Avengers and Fast and Furious because they make a lot of money. I think there is some kind of crisis in cinema right now. Everything has become too commercialized.

I think it is obvious that Netflix put a bit of a pressure in the cinema business, I mean the places that you go to watch movies, that has been a bit of a difficult thing these days, but that's about it, there is nothing that would be hurtful to the movie business itself, they are just producing movies just like any other production company and they are just putting those movies into netflix instead of the cinemas and that's about it.

So, I do not think that netflix hurts the movie world, they are in fact helping it during this pandemic period by publishing everything while cinemas are closed or rarely anyone goes there. Which is why I think in the future the movie business will grow to be bigger and better because I believe that people will be subscribed to many stuff like hbo, netflix, disney plus, amazon and so forth instead of going to movies, and movies will be made with all that guaranteed money.

netflix is for t.v series not new movies releases because thats illegal if every new movies are going to get streamed in netflix because the movie business will die but old movies is allowed to stream in netflix .
its the rona that is putting the preasure in the movie industry because movie places in the real world are closed and if not closed the costumers were limited to follow the distancing . oscar awards is not dead because if its dead why will there be oscars 2021 but the nominated movies for this year are all new

[slaman29]

The director of Nomadland is a Chinese born woman from Beijing. The skeptical me is thinking that the Chinese communist party can manipulate the results and have the movie win all major nominations as a manifestation of their global power and their arrival. China has been manipulating Hollywood already.

The best picture, the best adapted screenplay and the best actress will be won by Nomadland.

https://www.heritage.org/asia/heritage-explains/how-china-taking-control-hollywood

I think the problem of identifying people and directors, where they are from etc, has become bigger in the film industry. Why should it matter if the guy is even a criminal or a saint? We're supposed to be judging their film quality, not who they are and where they come from, right?

Of course, judges are not impartial so we will be seeing "karma" votes where ppl will vote for people they believe have not been getting fair attention in the past.

[el kaka22]

I do not get why people may think that Netflix would hurt, most of the major names are moving towards netflix, it is basically a guaranteed thing for them of sorts, depending on the production company of course but basically everyone knows what they are going to get and netflix takes all the fall if it is a bad work, hence that is why I think this gives a guaranteed feeling of comfort for both production and directors and actors and everyone behind the scenes as well.

I do not think that it should matter this much. Who cares if it is on a big screen or on your phone, it doesn't matter what the screen size is, it matters only if the work is good or not. This is of course for Oscars, when we are talking about going to cinema it is a personal thing, some people may like it and some people may not who knows but I think it is quite obvious that netflix is not hurting the movie business at all.

[Rikafip]

The director of Nomadland is a Chinese born woman from Beijing. The skeptical me is thinking that the Chinese communist party can manipulate the results and have the movie win all major nominations as a manifestation of their global power and their arrival. China has been manipulating Hollywood already.

The best picture, the best adapted screenplay and the best actress will be won by Nomadland.

https://www.heritage.org/asia/heritage-explains/how-china-taking-control-hollywood

While it's true that studios spend a lot of money on lobbying to get Oscar nominations/awards, I somehow doubt that behind Nomadland (eventual) success is a Chinese government. It is actually a pretty good film (if you like slow paced minimalistic dramas) and  Chloe Zhao is not some complete incompetent noob either unable to make legit good film. Few years ago I saw her The Rider (2017) which I liked a lot so I am not surprised that her next film (Nomadland) got so much appraisal.

I do not get why people may think that Netflix would hurt, most of the major names are moving towards netflix, it is basically a guaranteed thing for them of sorts, depending on the production company of course but basically everyone knows what they are going to get and netflix takes all the fall if it is a bad work, hence that is why I think this gives a guaranteed feeling of comfort for both production and directors and actors and everyone behind the scenes as well.

There are film purists that simply don't think that film should be watched on TV and that will lead to eventual movie degradation as studios won't be interested in producing epic movies that costs 300-400 million USD. I do like Netflix a lot and they brought a lot of good things to us as consumers (their movie Roma is probably my favorite movie made in the last few years) but its yet to be seen whether that really happens eventually.

[el kaka22]

There are film purists that simply don't think that film should be watched on TV and that will lead to eventual movie degradation as studios won't be interested in producing epic movies that costs 300-400 million USD. I do like Netflix a lot and they brought a lot of good things to us as consumers (their movie Roma is probably my favorite movie made in the last few years) but its yet to be seen whether that really happens eventually.

Let those purists think whatever they want to think, it is not our place to change their minds. I know for a fact that netflix and similar places allowed us to have a decent situation during this pandemic, they still shot movies and listed more from the past as well, they gave us more things to watch. I didn't watch movies this much before pandemic, now I am watching one nearly every single day. That is why I think netflix not only didn't hurt the movie business, but they even managed to get it better as well; that is why I think those purists can think whatever they want to think about, it will not change what I believe about Netflix.

However I am not going to try to change their idea neither, if they are so sure about movies being so great on cinema itself, let them shoot whatever they want, it eventually comes to netflix anyway, and netflix shoots oscar worthy movies as well, we all remember how awesome marriage story was.

[bbc.reporter]

The director of Nomadland is a Chinese born woman from Beijing. The skeptical me is thinking that the Chinese communist party can manipulate the results and have the movie win all major nominations as a manifestation of their global power and their arrival. China has been manipulating Hollywood already.

The best picture, the best adapted screenplay and the best actress will be won by Nomadland.

https://www.heritage.org/asia/heritage-explains/how-china-taking-control-hollywood

I think the problem of identifying people and directors, where they are from etc, has become bigger in the film industry. Why should it matter if the guy is even a criminal or a saint? We're supposed to be judging their film quality, not who they are and where they come from, right?

Of course, judges are not impartial so we will be seeing "karma" votes where ppl will vote for people they believe have not been getting fair attention in the past.

I was only telling everyone that there is more behind the Oscar awards than judging the winners for their film quality and quality of acting. There now is politics and the manipulation of what the world’s sentiment should be. I reckon if George Floyd was killed and the black lives matter movement begun today, all major awards will be won by a black director, actor, actress and producer for any movie about black oppression.

[Kittygalore]

~

To be quite fair, to have a more educated guess for betting purposes a better option than watching the movies would be hanging out on oscar related forums, read the articles and find out what movie and/or topic has the most hype to it because watching it could compromise objectivity if betting is the only thing someone wants to do with the Oscars.

Educated guess might work but I don't think that going to the lengths of going to forums seems to me a pretty big stretch for something as banal as a movie awards, you don't have to read articles to find the hype, if you have a social media then I think that it is enough to form your decision on which to bet because people will recommend what they find good.

[Silberman]

I do not get why people may think that Netflix would hurt, most of the major names are moving towards netflix, it is basically a guaranteed thing for them of sorts, depending on the production company of course but basically everyone knows what they are going to get and netflix takes all the fall if it is a bad work, hence that is why I think this gives a guaranteed feeling of comfort for both production and directors and actors and everyone behind the scenes as well.

I do not think that it should matter this much. Who cares if it is on a big screen or on your phone, it doesn't matter what the screen size is, it matters only if the work is good or not. This is of course for Oscars, when we are talking about going to cinema it is a personal thing, some people may like it and some people may not who knows but I think it is quite obvious that netflix is not hurting the movie business at all.

I am not an expert when it comes to the rules of the Oscars but if I remember correctly a movie in order to be considered has to have a theatrical release, if it does not even if it is a good movie it does not qualify, I agree this is unfair since a good movie is a good movie regardless of how it was released, I think these kind of rules exist to try to protect and give advantage to the movies that are released in a cinema, but the world is changing and many people do not bother to watch movies on the cinema anymore and prefer to do so from the comfort of their own home so such rules will probably change during the next years.

[FatFork]

I am not an expert when it comes to the rules of the Oscars but if I remember correctly a movie in order to be considered has to have a theatrical release, if it does not even if it is a good movie it does not qualify...

I believe you are right, but it seems that they have made some changes to the rules last year. I don't know how long these new rules still apply.

"The academy firmly believes there is no greater way to experience the magic of movies than to see them in a theater," the academy president, David Rubin, and chief executive, Dawn Hudson, said in a joint statement. "Our commitment to that is unchanged and unwavering. Nonetheless, the historically tragic Covid-19 pandemic necessitates this temporary exception to our awards eligibility rules."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/movies/oscars-2021-streaming-coronavirus.html

[Nadziratel]

I guess that this year, the Oscar may also be pale due to Corona virus. I haven't had a chance to check out any of the candidate films yet. What do you think I should watch first?

[blue Snow]

I guess that this year, the Oscar may also be pale due to Corona virus. I haven't had a chance to check out any of the candidate films yet. What do you think I should watch first?

It depends on what criteria of movie you like. as for me, I will read a synopsis before watching the movie, if the film can not be suitable as I expected I will leave it halfway.

Almost nominated the best picture narrates the character of actor and actress such as activist, deaf, alcoholic, unemployment, feminism and etc.

but, if you prepare to watch without reading a synopsis, I suggest minari.

[oHnK]

I guess that this year, the Oscar may also be pale due to Corona virus. I haven't had a chance to check out any of the candidate films yet. What do you think I should watch first?

It depends on what criteria of movie you like. as for me, I will read a synopsis before watching the movie, if the film can not be suitable as I expected I will leave it halfway.

Almost nominated the best picture narrates the character of actor and actress such as activist, deaf, alcoholic, unemployment, feminism and etc.

but, if you prepare to watch without reading a synopsis, I suggest minari.

If you are a lover of the drama genre, maybe Minari is worth watching because the plot is enough to make the audience curious about how it ends and is well packaged by the director. However, for viewers who don't really like the Drama genre I think this will be quite boring, because the storyline is a bit similar to some local films and it's easy to guess how it ends. I honestly don't really like drama genre, and prefer animation like soul. Soul has a light but very meaningful groove.

[StartupAnalyst]

There's a lot of good movies nowadays, honestly and thanks to Netflix for bringing such good movies, the awards is just a consolation price for those good movies, they are still the best for me.

I disagree with you a little bit. Netflix doesn't have a lot of good movies right now, so far it's more of an exception. If you don't count documentaries because there are a lot of them and a lot of cool ones. The only good Netflix movie I can think of is The Irishman. But they do have a lot of great series. I like the fact that they have not only American soap operas, but also from different European countries such as the German series Dark. I like their strategy to produce series, Netflix and HBO are the main producers of TV series.

And as for the Oscars, I think this award is more dead than alive. The studios don't give money to good movies with original storylines. They make Avengers and Fast and Furious because they make a lot of money. I think there is some kind of crisis in cinema right now. Everything has become too commercialized.

I think it is obvious that Netflix put a bit of a pressure in the cinema business, I mean the places that you go to watch movies, that has been a bit of a difficult thing these days, but that's about it, there is nothing that would be hurtful to the movie business itself, they are just producing movies just like any other production company and they are just putting those movies into netflix instead of the cinemas and that's about it.

So, I do not think that netflix hurts the movie world, they are in fact helping it during this pandemic period by publishing everything while cinemas are closed or rarely anyone goes there. Which is why I think in the future the movie business will grow to be bigger and better because I believe that people will be subscribed to many stuff like hbo, netflix, disney plus, amazon and so forth instead of going to movies, and movies will be made with all that guaranteed money.

If it weren't for the quarantine, I'd go to the movies. I like watching movies on the big screen. Besides, last year there was only one big movie, and that was Tenet. I myself have a subscription to Netflix and several other streaming platforms. But I don't think the model of distributing movies on streaming platforms is a good idea, because online piracy is still a big thing these days. And it would be detrimental to the studios' earnings.

[TheNineClub]

There's a lot of good movies nowadays, honestly and thanks to Netflix for bringing such good movies, the awards is just a consolation price for those good movies, they are still the best for me.

I disagree with you a little bit. Netflix doesn't have a lot of good movies right now, so far it's more of an exception. If you don't count documentaries because there are a lot of them and a lot of cool ones. The only good Netflix movie I can think of is The Irishman. But they do have a lot of great series. I like the fact that they have not only American soap operas, but also from different European countries such as the German series Dark. I like their strategy to produce series, Netflix and HBO are the main producers of TV series.

And as for the Oscars, I think this award is more dead than alive. The studios don't give money to good movies with original storylines. They make Avengers and Fast and Furious because they make a lot of money. I think there is some kind of crisis in cinema right now. Everything has become too commercialized.

I think it is obvious that Netflix put a bit of a pressure in the cinema business, I mean the places that you go to watch movies, that has been a bit of a difficult thing these days, but that's about it, there is nothing that would be hurtful to the movie business itself, they are just producing movies just like any other production company and they are just putting those movies into netflix instead of the cinemas and that's about it.

So, I do not think that netflix hurts the movie world, they are in fact helping it during this pandemic period by publishing everything while cinemas are closed or rarely anyone goes there. Which is why I think in the future the movie business will grow to be bigger and better because I believe that people will be subscribed to many stuff like hbo, netflix, disney plus, amazon and so forth instead of going to movies, and movies will be made with all that guaranteed money.

If it weren't for the quarantine, I'd go to the movies. I like watching movies on the big screen. Besides, last year there was only one big movie, and that was Tenet. I myself have a subscription to Netflix and several other streaming platforms. But I don't think the model of distributing movies on streaming platforms is a good idea, because online piracy is still a big thing these days. And it would be detrimental to the studios' earnings.

One question about Tenet. I did not watch it, but I heard that the sound differs from one theater to another and that was done intentionally by Nolan to cater to do more high-end venues. How did you find the sound to be? I always wonder how that type of artistic expression fits with the more boxed Oscars type of view where you expect certain things to be a certain way.

[blue Snow]

One question about Tenet. I did not watch it, but I heard that the sound differs from one theater to another and that was done intentionally by Nolan to cater to do more high-end venues.

Nolas is a genius director, he can create a sound by tick clock and use Shepard Tone to make sounds effects Dunkirk movie to be an illusion of intense tension. Because of those sounds, he got 2 the winner as Best Sound and Best Sound Editing. In Tenet, I guess he still uses another Shepard Tone to create that effect. Unfortunately, tenet only gets nominated for visual effects and production design, that sounds effect didn't attract to be nominated.

[TheNineClub]

One question about Tenet. I did not watch it, but I heard that the sound differs from one theater to another and that was done intentionally by Nolan to cater to do more high-end venues.

Nolas is a genius director, he can create a sound by tick clock and use Shepard Tone to make sounds effects Dunkirk movie to be an illusion of intense tension. Because of those sounds, he got 2 the winner as Best Sound and Best Sound Editing. In Tenet, I guess he still uses another Shepard Tone to create that effect. Unfortunately, tenet only gets nominated for visual effects and production design, that sounds effect didn't attract to be nominated.

Yeah, that's what I wanted to know as Tenet seemed more out of the box regarding sound design than Dunkirk did and that might be too much for the Hollywood mainstream. I might not like everything he does, but I'll give him that he's really open and willing to try new artistic concepts, but maybe his intention to cater to the more upscale movie theaters with Tenet rubbed some people the wrong way.