NFL Sportsbet.io discussion & predications thread rev

[ralle14]

We get another fishy odds, but i'll ride with the Seahawks @1.76 (price boost). The Giants look like one of the weakest teams after facing a couple of good teams, while the Seahawks are better on paper and want to extend their win streak to three. The bookies are testing the Giants here since this is the second time they'll face a team (the first was against the Cardinals) they can potentially beat.

Yes, it ended 23-20 for the Chiefs which they didn't deserve to win. Mahomes had 2 interceptions from what I witnessed while watching the game and Kelce didn't get going in this one with his usual performance.
Not the same Chiefs team who won the Super Bowl last season that's for sure against a struggling and recovering offensive line-up including Zach Wilson.
Who hasn't got into the leading role of being the starting QB yet.

I agree the Chiefs performed like they were the underdogs in this matchup and I regret not buying a few extra points for my under as I wasn't expecting a lackluster second half from these two teams.

I am really curious, near the end of the 4th quarter of the match, why did Patrick Mahomes stop near the goal instead of going for the Touchdown? I've read some comments on YouTube that it was to waste time and guarantee their win and others said that the Chiefs would still win if Patrick Mahomes went for the Touchdown.

Crazy things can happen even if there's only a minute and a half left and with their defense performing inconsistently, there's a possibility of it going to OT if they went for a TD.

[rdbase]

We get another fishy odds, but i'll ride with the Seahawks @1.76 (price boost). The Giants look like one of the weakest teams after facing a couple of good teams, while the Seahawks are better on paper and want to extend their win streak to three. The bookies are testing the Giants here since this is the second time they'll face a team (the first was against the Cardinals) they can potentially beat.

With watching the first quarter it was just a sea of yellow from all the penalties being given out by the referees.
There were no points put up on the scoreboard yet while I tuned into the game, but Seattle were at their own 30 yard line and was 1st and 20 then another flag thrown during the play and set back to 1st and 25.
So this seems to be a reoccurring theme for this Monday night match and possibly make it a low scoring one if more flags get thrown throughout the rest of the game.
Geno Smith was the favored quarterback to take the Seahawks on to victory against a poorly performing Daniel Jones and Giants team.
If I did have a bet on this match up tonight, I would of picked the exactly same as you did backing the Seahawks and probably put it as a combo bet with the points spread just to make it a bit more appealing to me.

[ralle14]

With watching the first quarter it was just a sea of yellow from all the penalties being given out by the referees.
There were no points put up on the scoreboard yet while I tuned into the game, but Seattle were at their own 30 yard line and was 1st and 20 then another flag thrown during the play and set back to 1st and 25.
So this seems to be a reoccurring theme for this Monday night match and possibly make it a low scoring one if more flags get thrown throughout the rest of the game.
Geno Smith was the favored quarterback to take the Seahawks on to victory against a poorly performing Daniel Jones and Giants team.
If I did have a bet on this match up tonight, I would of picked the exactly same as you did backing the Seahawks and probably put it as a combo bet with the points spread just to make it a bit more appealing to me.

Yup, the first half was so scrappy from both sides there is always a flag being thrown on every play and the Giants' QB was the real MVP of this match. Whenever they start to gain some yardage and close in on the red zone they somehow find a way to give it back to the Seahawks. 

I thought my Seahawks bet was in trouble when Geno Smith was having issues during the second quarter but the Giants still can't get their shit together.

[rdbase]

TNF is happening in less than and hour and a half and everyone is saying there is a lock on this match up tonight!

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/washington-football-team-v-chicago-bears-65133e73f2779c0001de9c48

This is going by the name of the worst game all year with the Chicago Bears team being in massive disarray from the defense all the way to the offense. This is why they are 0-4 on the season so far.
Then we have a struggling Washington Commanders squad which to me didn't look too bad in the last game I watched them play.
Sam Howell could toss them into the endzone, so they have hope to salvage something still being 2-2 still early on in the season.

But the lines all towards a successful Commanders win being 1.39x odds last I checked.

[ralle14]

We also have a MOTD special(link is in the image) for this match, and I immediately hopped on the Commanders' special because they were close to beating the Eagles last week.

TNF is happening in less than and hour and a half and everyone is saying there is a lock on this match up tonight!

It's scary to say they're a lock, but I agree they should win against the Bears.

There's a bit of movement on the spread (from 6.5 to 5.5) and maybe it's a hint that the public or the sharps are going ham on the Bears.

[rdbase]

Big win for the Bears and they were inspired to do it for their fellow fallen solider Dick Butkus who was a well known football player for Chicago.

So this weekend we have another early match in London with Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills.
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/buffalo-bills-v-jacksonville-jaguars-645ba8ea76e9d5391c4755cc

Rest of the matches after this one are listed here:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/american-football/matches/today

[ralle14]

Big win for the Bears and they were inspired to do it for their fellow fallen solider Dick Butkus who was a well known football player for Chicago.

So this weekend we have another early match in London with Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills.

Yup, and their close loss last week against the Broncos fired them up. The Commanders during that match didn't look like the same team that pressured the Eagles.

I'm glad I forgot about the early London match because I would've bet on the Bills like most bettors did and started my day with a loss.  

Earlier, almost half of the matches ended up in the way of the underdogs, and the impressive one was probably the Saints holding off the Patriots to zero points. For the MNF, i'm leaning on the plus points for the Packers and I don't buy the home advantage when this looks similar to the Steelers match a couple of weeks ago.

[morvillz7z]

This is what i'm on today, expect both Josh Jacobs and Romeo Doubs to have solid outputs. Raiders have their oline ranked top 5 in pass block win rate on the season and Jacobs is coming off 8 receptions 81 rec yards game. Doubs has been the guy for Green Bay so far, leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards...I would've added Davante Adams to my slip as i like the "revenge game" angle but he hasn't practiced all week nursing an injury, which is kinda risky.

[rdbase]

Funny how the Green Bay Packers were the favorites just a few hours earlier but now it is the Las Vegas Raiders. They flip flopped the odds.
Might be due to the Packers running back Aaron Jones having hamstring injury so won't be available to play tonight.
I was going with the Raiders -2.5 with the over anyways. Just can't go against Jimmy G at home turf.
Jordan Love still has alot to accomplish first going against the veteran Garoppolo and the Raiders offense.

[ralle14]

This is what i'm on today, expect both Josh Jacobs and Romeo Doubs to have solid outputs. Raiders have their oline ranked top 5 in pass block win rate on the season and Jacobs is coming off 8 receptions 81 rec yards game. Doubs has been the guy for Green Bay so far, leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards...I would've added DaVante Adams to my slip as i like the "revenge game" angle but he hasn't practiced all week nursing an injury, which is kinda risky.

That's a solid prop play. Doubs and Jacobs are 3-1 on both the over props and should likely hit for the fourth time. BOL

I'm only going for a small play on the Packers +2.5 because a couple of matches by the Packers came down to a single point. If the Raiders can't stop themselves from turning the ball over, then the Packers might not have problems covering the spread, even if they're coming from behind.

[rdbase]

Raiders beat the Packers unconvincingly with a 17-13 score to what many would say was a very slow game.
Several interceptions by Love and even one made by Jimmy G had it a very low scoring game.
I had the over 43.5 and thought it was an easy one to hit with both quarterbacks having a high percentage within the 20 yard line.
That is football.
Better to put more trust of scoring touchdowns on the teams with better records such as the 49ers and Eagles.

[morvillz7z]

This is what i'm on today, expect both Josh Jacobs and Romeo Doubs to have solid outputs. Raiders have their oline ranked top 5 in pass block win rate on the season and Jacobs is coming off 8 receptions 81 rec yards game. Doubs has been the guy for Green Bay so far, leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards...I would've added DaVante Adams to my slip as i like the "revenge game" angle but he hasn't practiced all week nursing an injury, which is kinda risky.

That's a solid prop play. Doubs and Jacobs are 3-1 on both the over props and should likely hit for the fourth time. BOL

I'm only going for a small play on the Packers +2.5 because a couple of matches by the Packers came down to a single point. If the Raiders can't stop themselves from turning the ball over, then the Packers might not have problems covering the spread, even if they're coming from behind

I switched off the stream right after Love's first interception and haven't watched rest of the game, knew it was over for me. Almost 2 quarters played and you have your main guy with just one target, you don't even look in his direction, c'mon now...I see Love had two more INTs in the second half to ruin your ticket as well, that gotta be annoying.

[ralle14]

I switched off the stream right after Love's first interception and haven't watched rest of the game, knew it was over for me. Almost 2 quarters played and you have your main guy with just one target, you don't even look in his direction, c'mon now...I see Love had two more INTs in the second half to ruin your ticket as well, that gotta be annoying.

It looked promising after the first quarter and then Love became a turnover machine like Dak against the 49ers. When the Raiders missed the field goal in the fourth quarter, I got my hopes up for nothing as Love gave the ball away one last time to end the game in the worst way possible. 

Both our tickets got ruined. I was hoping your bet would at least hit because I saw many bettors are on the Doubs props. And for a second, I thought he was sitting out when he didn't get enough opportunities.

[rdbase]

Doesn't anybody else think Kansas City odds are deceiving or are the Denver Broncos just that bad to have them heavy underdogs priced at 5.54x?
Chiefs at 1.17x is even a bet to make because the profit margin is a sliver.
Maybe a betbuilder or even a high odds spreadline is worth it but not the ML on the Chiefs.

Here are the markets so you can make your selections and pick something resembling a valuable play:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-v-denver-broncos-651c6b52f2779c0001b80a36

[wheelz1200]

Doesn't anybody else think Kansas City odds are deceiving or are the Denver Broncos just that bad to have them heavy underdogs priced at 5.54x?
Chiefs at 1.17x is even a bet to make because the profit margin is a sliver.
Maybe a betbuilder or even a high odds spreadline is worth it but not the ML on the Chiefs.

Here are the markets so you can make your selections and pick something resembling a valuable play:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-v-denver-broncos-651c6b52f2779c0001b80a36

I hate betting those lower odds, ypu win barely anything and super exposed to an upset.  Denver is terrible but any given Sunday anyone can win its the nfl.  Those odds seem about right not sure how the books can offer more money on kc straight up this game should be over by the third quarter.

[ralle14]

Doesn't anybody else think Kansas City odds are deceiving or are the Denver Broncos just that bad to have them heavy underdogs priced at 5.54x?
Chiefs at 1.17x is even a bet to make because the profit margin is a sliver.
Maybe a betbuilder or even a high odds spreadline is worth it but not the ML on the Chiefs.

Here are the markets so you can make your selections and pick something resembling a valuable play:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-v-denver-broncos-651c6b52f2779c0001b80a36

I somehow think the same after the Chiefs looked shaky in their last two matches, but I don't see them being bad enough to lose against one of the worst teams like the Broncos.

The spread on the Chiefs felt too much for me and after watching the Jets game, i'd better buy some points to avoid stressing out on the spread, so I whipped up a bet builder and took the -3.5 spread together with the under 51.5 @2.10 (odds boost). I imagine the scoreline for this game would look similar to the Bears game and pray that the Chiefs' defense would hold the Broncos to maybe a couple of TD or field goals.

[rdbase]

Doesn't anybody else think Kansas City odds are deceiving or are the Denver Broncos just that bad to have them heavy underdogs priced at 5.54x?
Chiefs at 1.17x is even a bet to make because the profit margin is a sliver.
Maybe a betbuilder or even a high odds spreadline is worth it but not the ML on the Chiefs.

Here are the markets so you can make your selections and pick something resembling a valuable play:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-v-denver-broncos-651c6b52f2779c0001b80a36

I hate betting those lower odds, you win barely anything and super exposed to an upset.  Denver is terrible but any given Sunday anyone can win its the nfl.  Those odds seem about right not sure how the books can offer more money on kc straight up this game should be over by the third quarter.

Well the odds did increase just a bit an hour ago to 1.18x so a micro movement on the lines but everybody is on the Chiefs to win and by a large margin.
Broncos are terrible and there was even talk about Jeudy trade rumors right before the game is not a good look for Denver's chances either.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/jerry-jeudy-trade-rumors-five-potential-landing-spots-for-broncos-wr-as-2023-deadline-looms

Doesn't anybody else think Kansas City odds are deceiving or are the Denver Broncos just that bad to have them heavy underdogs priced at 5.54x?
Chiefs at 1.17x is even a bet to make because the profit margin is a sliver.
Maybe a betbuilder or even a high odds spreadline is worth it but not the ML on the Chiefs.

Here are the markets so you can make your selections and pick something resembling a valuable play:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-v-denver-broncos-651c6b52f2779c0001b80a36

I somehow think the same after the Chiefs looked shaky in their last two matches, but I don't see them being bad enough to lose against one of the worst teams like the Broncos.

The spread on the Chiefs felt too much for me and after watching the Jets game, i'd better buy some points to avoid stressing out on the spread, so I whipped up a bet builder and took the -3.5 spread together with the under 51.5 @2.10 (odds boost). I imagine the scoreline for this game would look similar to the Bears game and pray that the Chiefs' defense would hold the Broncos to maybe a couple of TD or field goals.

I also took a betbuilder bet on this match but went with the passing and running yardage for Kansas City instead. Ended up with a 7.00x odds betslip so it is good enough for me to take the risk.
Was going to also add the over on points for this match to tack on there but then I remembered the last time I put too much confident in a Chiefs domination earlier in the season and that was the only thing not to hit on that betslip.

[wheelz1200]

Doesn't anybody else think Kansas City odds are deceiving or are the Denver Broncos just that bad to have them heavy underdogs priced at 5.54x?
Chiefs at 1.17x is even a bet to make because the profit margin is a sliver.
Maybe a betbuilder or even a high odds spreadline is worth it but not the ML on the Chiefs.

Here are the markets so you can make your selections and pick something resembling a valuable play:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-v-denver-broncos-651c6b52f2779c0001b80a36

I hate betting those lower odds, you win barely anything and super exposed to an upset.  Denver is terrible but any given Sunday anyone can win its the nfl.  Those odds seem about right not sure how the books can offer more money on kc straight up this game should be over by the third quarter.

Well the odds did increase just a bit an hour ago to 1.18x so a micro movement on the lines but everybody is on the Chiefs to win and by a large margin.
Broncos are terrible and there was even talk about Jeudy trade rumors right before the game is not a good look for Denver's chances either.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/jerry-jeudy-trade-rumors-five-potential-landing-spots-for-broncos-wr-as-2023-deadline-looms

Doesn't anybody else think Kansas City odds are deceiving or are the Denver Broncos just that bad to have them heavy underdogs priced at 5.54x?
Chiefs at 1.17x is even a bet to make because the profit margin is a sliver.
Maybe a betbuilder or even a high odds spreadline is worth it but not the ML on the Chiefs.

Here are the markets so you can make your selections and pick something resembling a valuable play:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-v-denver-broncos-651c6b52f2779c0001b80a36

I somehow think the same after the Chiefs looked shaky in their last two matches, but I don't see them being bad enough to lose against one of the worst teams like the Broncos.

The spread on the Chiefs felt too much for me and after watching the Jets game, i'd better buy some points to avoid stressing out on the spread, so I whipped up a bet builder and took the -3.5 spread together with the under 51.5 @2.10 (odds boost). I imagine the scoreline for this game would look similar to the Bears game and pray that the Chiefs' defense would hold the Broncos to maybe a couple of TD or field goals.

I also took a betbuilder bet on this match but went with the passing and running yardage for Kansas City instead. Ended up with a 7.00x odds betslip so it is good enough for me to take the risk.
Was going to also add the over on points for this match to tack on there but then I remembered the last time I put too much confident in a Chiefs domination earlier in the season and that was the only thing not to hit on that betslip.

That games was pretty bad.  Kansas city didn't even play good and it never really was in doubt.  Not sure what happened to russ but ever since he collected his bag he seems disinterested at times.  He had a swagger with the cheifs that he is missing.  Something tells me there is a lot going on on that clubhouse.  I'm gonna be betting against Denver a lot this year lol.

[ralle14]

That games was pretty bad.  Kansas city didn't even play good and it never really was in doubt.  Not sure what happened to russ but ever since he collected his bag he seems disinterested at times.  He had a swagger with the cheifs that he is missing.  Something tells me there is a lot going on on that clubhouse.  I'm gonna be betting against Denver a lot this year lol.

After he moved to the side of the Broncos, I agree that he doesn't look like the same threatening quarterback who used to play with the Seahawks.

Looking at their next couple of matches, I might also hop in on the fade train as they face the Chiefs again.
The only confident play I have in mind for this week is the 49ers alternate handicap (-5 or 6) and combine it with the alternate under (45 or 46) to push the odds close to even.

Both teams have a solid defense, but the Browns will struggle to score with their QB (Watson) out.

[rdbase]

Have another NFL early game for week 6 with the Baltimore Ravens going against the Tennessee Titans in London.

https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/tennessee-titans-v-baltimore-ravens-645ba89ac45a0fd5a84fc19d

The heavy favorites are the San Francisco 49ers @1.20x against the second string quarterback of the Cleveland Browns as ralle14 had mentioned with Deshaun Watson being ruled out to play for Sunday.

And Miami Dolphins @1.10x going against the Carolina Panthers @7.91x should be a clear win in taking the handicap.