2022 Diff thread.

[philipma1957]

Fuzzy and I agreed to let me do it this year. (2022)

I said yes and he can do 2023

[philipma1957]

spacer

https://ezil.me/personal_stats?wallet=0x7cb4bf7eab862aac12a0d7de71a3d574ced44c4d.zil1f8le3zsch5maxkp7u2kzv8eadnjq0t32etc5q3&coin=etc&path=overview

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   715777  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.9051%  (98 / 96.17 expected, 1.83 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   24195286980613.62                            
Current Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                            
Next Difficulty:   between 24330393668441 and 24898712029005
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2392% and +2.5806%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 3:56 AM  (+0.3184%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 7, 2022 at 9:40 PM  (in 13d 1h 41m 26s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 8, 2022 at 3:21 AM  (in 13d 7h 22m 34s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 17h 43m 7s and 13d 23h 24m 14s

locked till Jan 1

[philipma1957]

Okay pretty sure it is 2022 in New Zealand 🇳🇿

So happy New Year 🎈 to them.

We are doing okay ✅ today.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   716540  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   95.7590%  (861 / 899.13 expected, 38.13 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   24195286980613.62                            
Current Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                            
Next Difficulty:   between 23259326164562 and 23582377048584
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.1735% and -2.8426%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 3:56 AM  (+0.3184%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 8, 2022 at 1:56 PM  (in 8d 4h 8m 27s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 8, 2022 at 6:49 PM  (in 8d 9h 1m 31s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 59m 47s and 14d 14h 52m 51s

-4% and price of 48 k is good as it looks like gear is not being shipped out from bitmain with negative jumps like this.



once again the forced lack of gear is helping miners that already have some gear.
we ordered an avalon 1166pro

as we are simply losing some gear due to age.

but if we could have gotten a lot of gear along with others like me I think the wheels may have fallen off.

I feel as long as the diff flood gates do not open back until the fall of 2022 any established miner would have a good 2022.

[NapHappy]

I feel as long as the diff flood gates do not open back until the fall of 2022 any established miner would have a good 2022.

Happy New Year!

Thanks for making this thread. I have learned so much by reading the back and forth discussions last year.

Are you making a prediction that difficulty will be at a low rate of increase until the Fall? I assume due to chip shortages?

[philipma1957]

I feel as long as the diff flood gates do not open back until the fall of 2022 any established miner would have a good 2022.

Happy New Year!

Thanks for making this thread. I have learned so much by reading the back and forth discussions last year.

Are you making a prediction that difficulty will be at a low rate of increase until the Fall? I assume due to chip shortages?

My hope is we go sideways for 6-9 months 30k to 75k slot. and that difficulty meanders along

-1
-2
+3
+2

so in early Oct we are around 60-70k and diff is 28-32

so far there has been no good evidence of chips for the markets of mining other than gpus.

as ETH diff has grown bigly.

But I am working on BTC here as much as I can.

[DaveF]

Makes you wonder where the J/TH wall really is and if the 21.5 of the S19 XP is really going to happen by the end of the year like they say.
Saw a video the other day talking about power and chip production and they were saying the days of 20% power efficiency increases by generation are gone and it's all about optimization now.
And that ASICs are going to suffer because most of them were efficient as they were going to get.

They were not talking about BTC mining but about single process controllers and decoders.
Don't know if it was marketing fluff or just some facts.

-Dave

[philipma1957]

Makes you wonder where the J/TH wall really is and if the 21.5 of the S19 XP is really going to happen by the end of the year like they say.
Saw a video the other day talking about power and chip production and they were saying the days of 20% power efficiency increases by generation are gone and it's all about optimization now.
And that ASICs are going to suffer because most of them were efficient as they were going to get.

They were not talking about BTC mining but about single process controllers and decoders.
Don't know if it was marketing fluff or just some facts.

-Dave

Yeah I am thinking that power efficiency is close to done.



Much like a gasoline engine can do x miles an hour and that's is it the limits are reached.

50 miles a gallon and burn cleanly with a reasonable cost is about al you can get.

I am thinking low twenties is it for BTC mining .  Yeah you can spread the chips and tweak the clocks. but you lose on space that way.

I had 1 S17 Pro that could do 985 watts and 39500 hash on aftermarket firmware 24.936 watts a th

But if you ran at at 1800 watts and 50000 hash it made a bigger profit. even though it was doing 36.00 watts a th

I am thinking s19xp's may do 21 or  22 or 24 but we are pretty much done for efficiency at those number.

If you tweak and twist down to 19 you end up like I was underutilizing the gears profits

Much like if you make a car that does 80 miles per gallon it compromises how much it can carry or its speed is governed etc.

Who wants a car for a 300 mile drive if its top speed is 50 miles a hour.

[wndsnb]

I don't think efficiency gains are done, but they just don't matter at the moment. There is not much difference in profitability for a 21.5W/th miner vs a 40w/th miner, it's about 13% more profit at 7c power. So if incremental efficiency gains are costing more and more in development costs, why bother spending all that $ for such a small gain? Bitmain would be better off spending that $ trying to build a more reliable miner rather than a more efficient one...

Actually, I wonder if they make crappy miners on purpose. If they made a product that was reliable, then there'd be less of a market to replace them, and the 2nd had market would steal away more profits. With the 10s or 100s of millions they spend on new designs, I think they could throw a few mil at better design for manufacturability and better process control if they wanted.

[alh]

As we near the end on "ASIC efficiency improvements", there might well be a market for a longer life miner. Back when the S3 was king, it was very durable. It stopped being cost effective, and was replaced. I think manufacturers realized that there wasn't as much value in a "built like a tank" miner if it was going to be "economically obsolete" in 12-18 months. Maybe an extra 20% for a much longer life would be a reasonable value proposition in miners in 2023 (or when chip shortages are resolved).

We saw that Spndoolies seemed to invest more in engineering durable miners (The SP 3x series), but they just couldn't handle the pricing pressure that Bitmain could exert. That might change in a couple of years.

[philipma1957]

As we near the end on "ASIC efficiency improvements", there might well be a market for a longer life miner. Back when the S3 was king, it was very durable. It stopped being cost effective, and was replaced. I think manufacturers realized that there wasn't as much value in a "built like a tank" miner if it was going to be "economically obsolete" in 12-18 months. Maybe an extra 20% for a much longer life would be a reasonable value proposition in miners in 2023 (or when chip shortages are resolved).

We saw that Spndoolies seemed to invest more in engineering durable miners (The SP 3x series), but they just couldn't handle the pricing pressure that Bitmain could exert. That might change in a couple of years.

Yes the mining industry will mature.

And a 5 year built like a tank with easy to get parts miner would be able to charge more than a break in under 2 years with no repair parts to be found P.O.S. miner that is the rule at the moment.


We are now +.236%

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   716810  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.2368%  (1131 / 1128.33 expected, 2.67 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   24195286980613.62                           
Current Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                           
Next Difficulty:   between 24329721223392 and 24343460928030
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2364% and +0.2930%
Previous Retarget:   December 25, 2021 at 3:56 AM  (+0.3184%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 3:09 AM  (in 6d 3h 9m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 3:18 AM  (in 6d 3h 18m 16s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 12m 23s and 13d 23h 21m 33s

[mikeywith]

Based on current delivery schedules, Marathon anticipates all newly purchased miners to ship from BITMAIN between July 2022 and December 2022. In conjunction with this purchase, Marathon will be upgrading a portion of its mining fleet with the latest mining hardware to increase the overall efficiency of the Company’s operations. As a result, the Company’s mining operations are now expected to consist of approximately 199,000 bitcoin miners producing approximately 23.3 EH/s, making Marathon one of the largest known publicly traded bitcoin miners in the world once all miners are fully deployed and operational.

Source : https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/12/23/2357553/0/en/Marathon-Digital-Holdings-Bitcoin-Mining-Fleet-To-Reach-23-3-Exahash-after-Latest-Purchase-of-BITMAIN-s-ANTMINER-S19-XP.html

Heck, Mara bought 78,000 S19 xps that they expect to receive between July to dec of next year, that's close to a 11EH, it does not seem like Bitmain has any production issues or any chip shortage b.s anymore, it's pretty clear that they have decided to change their customers and that's all about it, we don't know who else is making such large orders in secret, Mara folks need to publish this info given who they are, I assume many other folks rather just buy and mine without having to tell everyone about it.

Let's just hope we don't hit 2x diff by the end of 2023 as that isn't going to sting.

[philipma1957]

Based on current delivery schedules, Marathon anticipates all newly purchased miners to ship from BITMAIN between July 2022 and December 2022. In conjunction with this purchase, Marathon will be upgrading a portion of its mining fleet with the latest mining hardware to increase the overall efficiency of the Company’s operations. As a result, the Company’s mining operations are now expected to consist of approximately 199,000 bitcoin miners producing approximately 23.3 EH/s, making Marathon one of the largest known publicly traded bitcoin miners in the world once all miners are fully deployed and operational.

Source : https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/12/23/2357553/0/en/Marathon-Digital-Holdings-Bitcoin-Mining-Fleet-To-Reach-23-3-Exahash-after-Latest-Purchase-of-BITMAIN-s-ANTMINER-S19-XP.html

Heck, Mara bought 78,000 S19 xps that they expect to receive between July to dec of next year, that's close to a 11EH, it does not seem like Bitmain has any production issues or any chip shortage b.s anymore, it's pretty clear that they have decided to change their customers and that's all about it, we don't know who else is making such large orders in secret, Mara folks need to publish this info given who they are, I assume many other folks rather just buy and mine without having to tell everyone about it.

Let's just hope we don't hit 2x diff by the end of 2023 as that isn't going to sting.

Well 11eh compared to 180eh is not much. well under 10%

and while the promised gear starts in July and ends in December that seems like they do not have the chips at the moment. It does seem they are waiting for promised chips.

We have seen them build and sell the s19 at < 3000 Usd price points.

Which means they can sell lots for 7k and profit and they are not doing that. Still shows me short chips.

But I am missing so much info it is merely a guess.

I do see one hash rate grow and grow and grow and grow it is not BTC it is ETH

this shows me AMD and NVIDiA are getting chips.

[mikeywith]

Well 11eh compared to 180eh is not much. well under 10%

You are right, but keep in mind that it is just one entity.
 

and while the promised gear starts in July and ends in December that seems like they do not have the chips at the moment. It does seem they are waiting for promised chips.

They are still receiving gears from previous orders, their total hashrate is estimated to be at around 30eh after this order is fully delivered by year-end, the good news is that BTC hashrate is already so huge, it takes A LOT to do 2x or 3x, let alone 5x and the other figures we see on small coins.

[stompix]

I had such a  peaceful New Year's Eve, same for the start of the year, seems like both the price and difficulty are following my mood  

Price is still floating around ~46k, the difficulty is projected to go up by barely 0.6%

Latest Block:   717321  (11 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.6216%  (1642 / 1631.86 expected, 10.14 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.6378% and +0.6607%

I'm feeling pretty comfortable with these numbers, might be cold outside, the holiday but non-eventful days were the things I probably wanted most.

As for Mara, I knew something was a bit off with those numbers of theirs, this is last year
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/12/28/2150886/0/en/Marathon-Patent-Group-Purchases-70-000-S-19-ASIC-Miners-from-Bitmain-for-170-Million.html

Under the terms of the agreement, Marathon anticipates receiving an initial batch of 7,000 S-19 miners in July 2021 and the final shipment in December 2021. Once all miners are fully deployed, the Company’s mining fleet will consist of more than 103,000 miners capable of producing 10.36 EH/s.
This landscape changing purchase of these miners more than triples the size of Marathon’s existing fleet of 33,000 miners.

No matter how you look if considering the pool hashrate and income, something went wrong even with their first batch deployment.
They were supposed to have 7k +33k, no the statements say:

Existing mining fleet consists of 32,350 active miners producing approximately 3.5 EH/s

It's either they are messing around with numbers or their miners have one hell of a failure rate.

[philipma1957]

I had such a  peaceful New Year's Eve, same for the start of the year, seems like both the price and difficulty are following my mood  

Price is still floating around ~46k, the difficulty is projected to go up by barely 0.6%

Latest Block:   717321  (11 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.6216%  (1642 / 1631.86 expected, 10.14 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.6378% and +0.6607%

I'm feeling pretty comfortable with these numbers, might be cold outside, the holiday but non-eventful days were the things I probably wanted most.

As for Mara, I knew something was a bit off with those numbers of theirs, this is last year
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/12/28/2150886/0/en/Marathon-Patent-Group-Purchases-70-000-S-19-ASIC-Miners-from-Bitmain-for-170-Million.html

Under the terms of the agreement, Marathon anticipates receiving an initial batch of 7,000 S-19 miners in July 2021 and the final shipment in December 2021. Once all miners are fully deployed, the Company’s mining fleet will consist of more than 103,000 miners capable of producing 10.36 EH/s.
This landscape changing purchase of these miners more than triples the size of Marathon’s existing fleet of 33,000 miners.

No matter how you look if considering the pool hashrate and income, something went wrong even with their first batch deployment.
They were supposed to have 7k +33k, now the statements say:

Existing mining fleet consists of 32,350 active miners producing approximately 3.5 EH/s

It's either they are messing around with numbers or their miners have one hell of a failure rate.

 corrected typo

my guess is they simply get gear slower then they list.

[eectechnology]

Marathon is not the companies you should be watching:

Core Scientific has been planning a listing on Nasdaq which would (possibly) give them a windfall of $4.3 billion, about 3.3 times what Hut 8 got when it listed. This is a truly scary amount of capital - with half that amount of money they could easily buy themselves a world class design team, get access to TSMC's 3nm process and make a miner which would cost them less than 1/3 of what Bitmain would charge them for their latest machine, but with an added 30% hashing capabilty at the same power level. Think of another 100+ EH on the network in 18 months

As for Phoenix and their purchase of '$2 billion of asics' at the end of 2022, the scenario would be the same.

Don't mean to be the profit of doom, but this will happen if either or both of these companies get their finance.

[mikeywith]

with half that amount of money they could easily buy themselves a world class design team, get access to TSMC's 3nm process and make a miner which would cost them less than 1/3 of what Bitmain would charge them for their latest machine, but with an added 30% hashing capabilty at the same power level.

That's a long shot, I doubt that anyone will go this far just to get mining gears at a cheaper cost, it also does not make sense to make your own miner just to use them, and thus it has to be more like a complete company such as Bitmain, and since not everything is equal here, it will be extremely hard to compete with Bitmain in this field.

Also being a miner you don't really want to harm your own profit by increasing the difficulty this way, it's wiser and easier to just secure the majority of Bitmain production even if it was less than what you actually want.

Think of another 100+ EH on the network in 18 months

That is easily achievable by the current production of Bitmain, Canaan, MicroBT, and the other small guys, in fact, 2x  in 18 months from where we are now isn't too far stretched.

[stompix]

Stompix strikes again!!!

I had such a  peaceful New Year's Eve, same for the start of the year, seems like both the price and difficulty are following my mood  

How long did it take for everything to go 180°? 

The price went down but, there is something very weird being posted all around and which I don't really get.
Why is everyone talking about a hashrate drop, and it started with this guy:

https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1478764142957846531?s=21

Looks like the impact on the hashrate is so far 12% drop just in the last few hours since internet went down.

then
The Cointelegraph
https://cointelegraph.com/news/kazakh-government-resigns-shuts-down-internet-amid-protests-causing-bitcoin-network-hash-rate-to-tumble-13-4/amp

I'm looking at 24h block time, it's at 10 minutes 4 seconds, I'm looking at blocks, mempool, pool distribution, I don't see any evidence of that 12-18-20 drop anywhere! I didn't drink on NYE, I can't blame it on that so what the hell am I missing here?

Diff is almost the same as yesterday:

Latest Block:   717433  (18 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.5043%  (1754 / 1745.20 expected, 8.8 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5316% and +0.5408%

So can somebody tell me what's going on?

[philipma1957]

Stompix strikes again!!!

I had such a  peaceful New Year's Eve, same for the start of the year, seems like both the price and difficulty are following my mood  

How long did it take for everything to go 180°?  

The price went down but, there is something very weird being posted all around and which I don't really get.
Why is everyone talking about a hashrate drop, and it started with this guy:

https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1478764142957846531?s=21

Looks like the impact on the hashrate is so far 12% drop just in the last few hours since internet went down.

then
The Cointelegraph
https://cointelegraph.com/news/kazakh-government-resigns-shuts-down-internet-amid-protests-causing-bitcoin-network-hash-rate-to-tumble-13-4/amp

I'm looking at 24h block time, it's at 10 minutes 4 seconds, I'm looking at blocks, mempool, pool distribution, I don't see any evidence of that 12-18-20 drop anywhere! I didn't drink on NYE, I can't blame it on that so what the hell am I missing here?

Diff is almost the same as yesterday:

Latest Block:   717433  (18 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.5043%  (1754 / 1745.20 expected, 8.8 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5316% and +0.5408%

So can somebody tell me what's going on?

Oh good some one else noticed that.

I read there was a 13% Hashrate  drop  which would be 144 x 13% = 18 or 19 blocks a day. I do not see it all.

[mineozzie]

Hello, I'm a small miner on Slushpool and I noticed that Slushpool hashrate fell from 10.02 EH/s to 8.7 EH/s early this morning, which is ~ -13%. But yea, that's a small pool and could be result of BTC price drop.