2022 Diff thread.

[mikeywith]

Based on this it is safe to assume that the only thing that could slow down the difficulty rise would be the manufacturing rate.

If hundreds of MW are brought in for under 3 cents in the U.S it is only a matter of time before existing gears start to move there so even those who are forced to shut down else where will have to migrate or sell thier gears to the folks in the U.S.

How likely or otherwise unlikely for the U.S to follow the Chinese path and ban or at least restrict mining? Pretty much unlikely IMO... Which means tough times ahead for the rest of us, even the smaller players in the U.S won't be having lotsa fun.

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[NeuroticFish]

Add gas flaring, add some gas powerplants, one-two smelters, wouldn't be surprised if more manage under 5c rates.

Don't forget that at least for this winter exporting gas (well, LNG) to Europe can be a better business.
And US has started doing that. How much it affects US itself... I can't tell though.

[wndsnb]

If hundreds of MW are brought in for under 3 cents in the U.S it is only a matter of time before existing gears start to move there so even those who are forced to shut down else where will have to migrate or sell thier gears to the folks in the U.S.

I'd guess these large operations that are able to get those sub 3 cent rates are not interested in buying older used equipment that would require 2x or 3x the infrastructure for the same hashrate even if the miner ROI is 6 months shorter. They are spending millions to build out datacenters. I think most would rather go in with new 3kw miners that have better efficiency, and make up the additional miner cost with the extended profitability time and lower infrastructure costs.

The cost for the infrastructure and labor in the USA is high, in places where that cost is much lower I think there would be more operations that may buy up the older equipment.

[philipma1957]

If hundreds of MW are brought in for under 3 cents in the U.S it is only a matter of time before existing gears start to move there so even those who are forced to shut down else where will have to migrate or sell thier gears to the folks in the U.S.

I'd guess these large operations that are able to get those sub 3 cent rates are not interested in buying older used equipment that would require 2x or 3x the infrastructure for the same hashrate even if the miner ROI is 6 months shorter. They are spending millions to build out datacenters. I think most would rather go in with new 3kw miners that have better efficiency, and make up the additional miner cost with the extended profitability time and lower infrastructure costs.

The cost for the infrastructure and labor in the USA is high, in places where that cost is much lower I think there would be more operations that may buy up the older equipment.

you would be surprised. in 2018 we were consulting on a large build were avalon a821s would be used as an excess power sink for five pennsylvania coal power plants used to feed philiadelphia they were slightly out of date. plan was nixxed due to btc collapse of 2018 .

I would think any of these excess power companies if they consult with any decent consultant would be told to get gear now even if it its old along with get gear later.

Any texas company going all in on new gear ⚙️ will get fucked = my prediction.

any texas comapny understanding the need for old gear now in 30 days or less and new gear later will do okay.

but even though I can type this it does not mean they will do as I say.

Along with the stupidity of not having some solar and some wind in their plans.

No concept of pretty curtains to hide the mess behind it.

When I see the solar industry and the coal ,gas , oil industry at odds all I can think is fucking dumb.

[mikeywith]

I'd guess these large operations that are able to get those sub 3 cent rates are not interested in buying older used equipment that would require 2x or 3x the infrastructure for the same hashrate even if the miner ROI is 6 months shorter. They are spending millions to build out datacenters. I think most would rather go in with new 3kw miners that have better efficiency, and make up the additional miner cost with the extended profitability time and lower infrastructure costs.

The cost for the infrastructure and labor in the USA is high, in places where that cost is much lower I think there would be more operations that may buy up the older equipment.

You are right if it's only just a matter of choice between old and new gears, but if they have more power than what they can fill with the new gears and those less effienct gears are for sale at pretty cheap, why not? it's not like they can buy an unlimited number of gears, Bitmain and the rest will always be limited by something, I highly doubt they can satisfy everybody, there will always be a need for more gears.

[stompix]

@NotFuzzyWarm, nice summary, I wonder how much the isolation of the Texas grid and low interconnection with the national played a role in this whole mess. Everyone blamed this aspect in the shortages, probably it's the same for peak power too.

Based on this it is safe to assume that the only thing that could slow down the difficulty rise would be the manufacturing rate.

That and probably later on the diminishing returns on large investments as more and more hashrate comes on, of course, if we exclude a price rise scenario, in that case, only a chip shortage will stop it.

Right now, on a short time interval I'm not that concerned, even as I read +8% pace, we had a month of only 1%, so on average it's not that bad, plus all those companies that like to brag about low prices and their hash rate have one thing in common, a very long schedule of receiving that gear, late 2022 and even mid-2023. It's probably May-July when the situation will become really really tricky, especially if the prices will stay in the 40k, we might go under 15c/TH, which will probably start giving headaches to the s15 series.

I'd guess these large operations that are able to get those sub 3 cent rates are not interested in buying older used equipment that would require 2x or 3x the infrastructure for the same hashrate even if the miner ROI is 6 months shorter. They are spending millions to build out datacenters. I think most would rather go in with new 3kw miners that have better efficiency, and make up the additional miner cost with the extended profitability time and lower infrastructure costs.

Just an assumption, but I think those companies are eyes new gear because of the need for firm contracts and also of the business incentives in the US. But the US tax code is something I really have no patience and spare synapses for.

[philipma1957]

US Tax code is a huge mess.
Between my late mother my wife and myself we worked over 55 years for the IRS and I can say it is so fucked up in so many ways the list of issues is as long as it is to hit a btc block solo with an s9.

As for the +8% jump it is a non issue

but three of them in a row would be an issue.

To me I am starting to see a bit of 2022 looking like 2018.

Newegg has 3090 video cards for sale.
Limit is 20 cards.
Two models of them
So a deep pocket guy could get
40x 3090 cards quickly.

price is too high but availability is there.

you can buy this:

https://minerdude.com/product/x12012022/


limit 20
https://www.newegg.com/msi-geforce-rtx-3090-rtx-3090-ventus-3x-24g-oc/p/N82E16814137596?

limit 20

https://www.newegg.com/msi-geforce-rtx-3090-rtx-3090-gaming-x-trio-24g/p/N82E16814137595?


this availability is a sign that needs to be noted.

you can have 4gh of eth mining asap under 10 days.
but over priced.


now look at bitmain

https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020220110114909173N9yH519G0619

you can have lots of btc gear asap

if you buy the gpus from newegg all forty and seven server cases

you spend 120 on gpus and 10 on cases total of 130k for 4.4gh of eth in under 10 days

or buy 9 s19s for 100k and 30k import 130k for 1ph of hash in under 10 days.

I know people don’t like other mining info here.

but this is not about other mining info.

this is about mining gear demand

both companies have had this on the table  since very early jan.

jan 3 till now. neither one has sold out.

so the demand for gear is less.

or the demand for over priced gear ⚙️ has stopped.

my estimate for proper pricing is the 130 k deals should be more like 90k

they bear watching. to see if they sell out or get cheaper.

[wndsnb]

or the demand for over priced gear ⚙️ has stopped.

my estimate for proper pricing is the 130 k deals should be more like 90k

they bear watching. to see if they sell out or get cheaper.

It is interesting that we saw prices fall from close to 70K all the way to 40K, and no real change in gear price. Still around $100/TH. Almost like there is some price-fixing going on...

I wonder what big players who are negotiating for >1000 units are paying, doubt it is $100/TH. There also seems to be some gear coming from Malaysia, so no tariff. Maybe a big player who wants $10M worth of gear is paying $70/TH right now...

Or maybe the gear manufacturers are betting on a BTC bull market and >70k prices and are happy to build up inventory so they can dump it all at once for $120/TH when BTC cracks 100k...

[philipma1957]

or the demand for over priced gear ⚙️ has stopped.

my estimate for proper pricing is the 130 k deals should be more like 90k

they bear watching. to see if they sell out or get cheaper.

It is interesting that we saw prices fall from close to 70K all the way to 40K, and no real change in gear price. Still around $100/TH. Almost like there is some price-fixing going on...

I wonder what big players who are negotiating for >1000 units are paying, doubt it is $100/TH. There also seems to be some gear coming from Malaysia, so no tariff. Maybe a big player who wants $10M worth of gear is paying $70/TH right now...

Or maybe the gear manufacturers are betting on a BTC bull market and >70k prices and are happy to build up inventory so they can dump it all at once for $120/TH when BTC cracks 100k...

I am a bit older than most people on the forum. I remember opec fixing oil prices in the 70’s

They were able to do a very good job of it for close to five years.

The world is different now and I don’t think they can lock prices for five years but they certainly are efforting to keep gear price stable.

you know what would be aa solid fu to eth and also asic builders.

if eth goes pos
and btc switches to kapow algorithm.

but it is not going to happen.

truly would fuck over a lot of people if it did.

I suppose some would say its not btc but realistically if enough vote for an algorithm switch if would be just that.

[Biffa]

or the demand for over priced gear ⚙️ has stopped.

my estimate for proper pricing is the 130 k deals should be more like 90k

they bear watching. to see if they sell out or get cheaper.

There also seems to be some gear coming from Malaysia, so no tariff. Maybe a big player who wants $10M worth of gear is paying $70/TH right now...

I've heard people still getting US import duty because although it is shipped from Malaysia the original manufacturing is still China

[wndsnb]

I've heard people still getting US import duty because although it is shipped from Malaysia the original manufacturing is still China

Yeah, doesn't matter where it ships from, only where it was made. The S17s I got from Malaysia are labeled as built there.

If you are not ordering direct from the manufacturer, it would probably be a good idea to get them to send a photo of the labeling on the unit to verify it says doesn't say "Made in China". Otherwise, you could end up with a big surprise bill from US customs. Or go for DDP shipping that includes any import fees.

[stompix]

I wonder what big players who are negotiating for >1000 units are paying, doubt it is $100/TH. There also seems to be some gear coming from Malaysia, so no tariff. Maybe a big player who wants $10M worth of gear is paying $70/TH right now...

I doubt it.
Marathon purchased ~80k S19xp at a rate of 80$ per TH, and those are far more efficient machines so the cost per TH must be a bit higher, and that was for 900 million, doubt it Bitmain will give a 30% discount for 1000 machines when they have hundreds of thousands on order at nearly full price.

Or maybe the gear manufacturers are betting on a BTC bull market and >70k prices and are happy to build up inventory so they can dump it all at once for $120/TH when BTC cracks 100k...

Or, they make the math of selling gear at 3 times what their price was at launch and if nobody buys then they can mine themselves with it, and on top of that they don't rise the hashrate affecting their mining operations either. If they still have 10% of the hashrate between farms that's still 5m in revenue, split that in half for the next year and you get 900 million if the hashrate doubles, how much extra gear on top of what they are selling must they sell at lower prices to cover that?

[wndsnb]

I doubt it.
Marathon purchased ~80k S19xp at a rate of 80$ per TH, and those are far more efficient machines so the cost per TH must be a bit higher, and that was for 900 million, doubt it Bitmain will give a 30% discount for 1000 machines when they have hundreds of thousands on order at nearly full price.

Well, the prices I'm seeing right now for quantities less than 50 units is $109/TH for July to Sept delivery. So I'd say $80 is a pretty good discount.

[mikeywith]

I've heard people still getting US import duty because although it is shipped from Malaysia the original manufacturing is still China

Not true, the actual manufacturing happens in Malaysia (recently also in Indonesia) and so these gears are not made in China and won't be treated as Chinese products when they arrive at the U.S, in fact, many Bitmain gears that are located in HK are made in one of those two countries, it seems like Bitmain is trying to fully migrate from China, probably because

1- The Chinese Ban.
2- To get away with no China tariff.

It's pretty obvious by now that the biggest players are located in the U.S, it's to bitmain and their large clients' best interest that Bitmain moves outside of China, the 25% saved is good for everyone, Bitmain can just add 5% or 10% on the initial sale price and the U.S clients will still happily accept it since they can save 20% or 15%.

I still don't understand why do they move many of these non-Chinese made gears back to HK, maybe they can't handle the logistics outside of China yet, but the way I see it is that it's only a matter of time before every Bitmain gear becomes non-Chinese made, and that's bad news for the difficulty.

[Biffa]

I've heard people still getting US import duty because although it is shipped from Malaysia the original manufacturing is still China

Not true, the actual manufacturing happens in Malaysia (recently also in Indonesia) and so these gears are not made in China and won't be treated as Chinese products when they arrive at the U.S, in fact, many Bitmain gears that are located in HK are made in one of those two countries, it seems like Bitmain is trying to fully migrate from China, probably because

1- The Chinese Ban.
2- To get away with no China tariff.

It's pretty obvious by now that the biggest players are located in the U.S, it's to bitmain and their large clients' best interest that Bitmain moves outside of China, the 25% saved is good for everyone, Bitmain can just add 5% or 10% on the initial sale price and the U.S clients will still happily accept it since they can save 20% or 15%.

I still don't understand why do they move many of these non-Chinese made gears back to HK, maybe they can't handle the logistics outside of China yet, but the way I see it is that it's only a matter of time before every Bitmain gear becomes non-Chinese made, and that's bad news for the difficulty.

Good to know

[robertpaulsen]

Latest Block:   719484  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   108.6480%  (1789 / 1646.60 expected, 142.4 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                           
Current Difficulty:   24371874614345.62                           
Next Difficulty:   between 26457891734489 and 26487003856870
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.5591% and +8.6786%
Previous Retarget:   January 8, 2022 at 8:40 AM  (+0.4101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 5:56 AM  (in 1d 10h 49m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 6:16 AM  (in 1d 11h 9m 39s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 21h 15m 20s and 12d 21h 35m 40s

Seems like it aggressive hashrate growth has stopped because diff estimation is now consolidated around 8.6% for at least 24h now.

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   719484  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   108.6480%  (1789 / 1646.60 expected, 142.4 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                           
Current Difficulty:   24371874614345.62                           
Next Difficulty:   between 26457891734489 and 26487003856870
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.5591% and +8.6786%
Previous Retarget:   January 8, 2022 at 8:40 AM  (+0.4101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 5:56 AM  (in 1d 10h 49m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 6:16 AM  (in 1d 11h 9m 39s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 21h 15m 20s and 12d 21h 35m 40s

Seems like it aggressive hashrate growth has stopped because diff estimation is now consolidated around 8.6% for at least 24h now.

And 26.4 will be the all time high number.

[stompix]

Seems like it aggressive hashrate growth has stopped because diff estimation is now consolidated around 8.6% for at least 24h now.

We're approaching the end of the period, that's why there is no more such exponential growth, there is only a day and a half left, for it to change the current 8% to 10% you would need the last of it to be even higher to compensate for the lower average over the previous 12 days.
That aside, the current pace (24hours) is actually quite high, 174 blocks, around 22% higher than the average, it might push the adjustment to over 9 if this continuous and it's not just randomness.

From the 13th we had 5 days with block time under and ~9 mins, there is definitely more gear coming online.
We're penalty going to beat the May ATH and let's see, another 6% is enough for over 200Exa on average, another milestone and record, not one that I'm too thrilled about.


 

[philipma1957]

Seems like it aggressive hashrate growth has stopped because diff estimation is now consolidated around 8.6% for at least 24h now.

We're approaching the end of the period, that's why there is no more such exponential growth, there is only a day and a half left, for it to change the current 8% to 10% you would need the last of it to be even higher to compensate for the lower average over the previous 12 days.
That aside, the current pace (24hours) is actually quite high, 174 blocks, around 22% higher than the average, it might push the adjustment to over 9 if this continuous and it's not just randomness.

From the 13th we had 5 days with block time under and ~9 mins, there is definitely more gear coming online.
We're penalty going to beat the May ATH and let's see, another 6% is enough for over 200Exa on average, another milestone and record, not one that I'm too thrilled about.


 

In the long run the 200Exa is a big deal and hopefully good as it means investment in mining.

[mikeywith]

Latest Block:   719512  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   109.0548%  (1817 / 1666.14 expected, 150.86 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                           
Current Difficulty:   24371874614345.62                           
Next Difficulty:   between 26562569704103 and 26586083614608
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.9886% and +9.0851%
Previous Retarget:   January 8, 2022 at 9:40 AM  (+0.4101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 5:47 AM  (in 1d 6h 24m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 6:03 AM  (in 1d 6h 41m 4s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 20h 6m 7s and 12d 20h 22m 26s

This one adjustment is going to sting, at current prices and the next diff, those that pay 15 cents or higher will be hardly making any profit even with the 17 series gears, and then with the slightest increment in the next epoch, they will be mining at a loss, if the difficulty continues at a similar rate, then by Q2 anyone with 10 cents or more will need to have the 19 series or the equivalent to be able to mine at profit.

Of course, all of that is irrelevant if the prices were to go up from here, but we all know that BTC can remain in the same price range for many months, s19 pro still sells for 12k which is a joke at current profitability.