2022 Diff thread.

[stompix]

So right now but not available to order
M50    114TH/s  for 8.8k, 29 J/T
M50S  126TH/s for 11k, 26 J/T
vs
19pro at 29J/T does 110TH/s for 9.5K

So right now microbt would be winning the war unless we count in the 19XP.

Oh, and they are also going to a hydro,

The company has introduced the next generation of hydro cooling mining hardware called WhatsMiner M53 that boasts 240 TH/s of computing power at 29 J/TH of power efficiency.

I wonder, are those things really going to sell that good? At 5.5KW that ain't home mining anymore and for industrial usage you could go straight for immersion cooling at that budget. Missing something?

Latest Block:   730981  (13 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.0822%  (1190 / 1213.27 expected, 23.27 behind)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 12:48 PM  (in 5d 19h 15m 20s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 1:54 PM  (in 5d 20h 21m 30s)

Nice speed bump!

[1714100984]

1714100984

[1714100984]

1714100984

[1714100984]

1714100984

[philipma1957]

So right now but not available to order
M50    114TH/s  for 8.8k, 29 J/T
M50S  126TH/s for 11k, 26 J/T
vs
19pro at 29J/T does 110TH/s for 9.5K

So right now microbt would be winning the war unless we count in the 19XP.

Oh, and they are also going to a hydro,

The company has introduced the next generation of hydro cooling mining hardware called WhatsMiner M53 that boasts 240 TH/s of computing power at 29 J/TH of power efficiency.

I wonder, are those things really going to sell that good? At 5.5KW that ain't home mining anymore and for industrial usage you could go straight for immersion cooling at that budget. Missing something?

Latest Block:   730981  (13 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.0822%  (1190 / 1213.27 expected, 23.27 behind)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 12:48 PM  (in 5d 19h 15m 20s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 1:54 PM  (in 5d 20h 21m 30s)

Nice speed bump!

If you look at that video the water cooled are designed to heat exchange.

So pools and greenhouses also heating office buildings. Would be the targets .

We have a large ymca with 2 olympic sized pools. you could heat both of them using the system
 the setup in the photo has

15 rigs at 6 to 10 kilowatts that is 90 to 150 kilowatts about 300 to 500 btus of heat

an pair of  indoor pools  would be just about perfectly  heated with it.








now a 400k btu furnace would burn a lot of fuel  and pollute.

while the setup in the photo could be solar power on the roof covering the pools.

So pretty much a perfect solution for cheaper mining  and saving the planet.

cost for solar = ? 2 million
cost for the mining setup = ? under 600k

you get 15 x 225th = 3.375 ph setup

2 pool heated for free for 20-30 years

So a viable project that pays better than burning fuel to heat the pools.

Of course initial startup costs are higher. Does it help the guy that wants a 2k or 1k water cooled miner nope.

[philipma1957]

Kind of flat -1% to -1.5%
480 blocks left

price at 42333

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

...

Latest Block:   731329  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.7769%  (1538 / 1557.04 expected, 19.04 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   27452707696466.39                           
Current Difficulty:   28587155782195.14                           
Next Difficulty:   between 28247245304632 and 28266139780249
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.1890% and -1.1229%
Previous Retarget:   March 31, 2022 at 12:20 AM  (+4.1324%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 4:15 AM  (in 3d 8h 25m 9s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 4:29 AM  (in 3d 8h 39m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 55m 35s and 14d 4h 9m 37s

...

[alh]

I just saw that BTC price has now fallen below $40K. Will this further tempt Mr. Fuzzy to buy?

[philipma1957]

I just saw that BTC price has now fallen below $40K. Will this further tempt Mr. Fuzzy to buy?

maybe.  Hell let it drop to 18k that will shake shit up.


340 blocks to next jump

70 blocks or so

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   731737  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.7439%  (1946 / 1970.75 expected, 24.75 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   27452707696466.39                            
Current Difficulty:   28587155782195.14                            
Next Difficulty:   between 28235762826228 and 28236181275762
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.2292% and -1.2277%
Previous Retarget:   March 31, 2022 at 12:20 AM  (+4.1324%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 4:36 AM  (in 0d 11h 48m 35s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 4:36 AM  (in 0d 11h 48m 54s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 16m 8s and 14d 4h 16m 27s
...

looks like a small drop in diff price is back to 41.1k from low of 39k

but back on march 31 we were over 47k


now there is a sign that maybe eth will really go pos.

Evga dropped its retail price on the 3090 ftw3 300 bucks it is now at 1699 on its website.

https://www.evga.com/products/product.aspx?pn=24G-P5-3987-KR

and with an associate code you get 3% off that so 1650 for the card.

Not sure what this means but I think I see a large drop coming for everything if it means eth goes pos in june or july

[stompix]

Slight drop, the drop is the price is a bit more serious so it won't balance things but it's again the same back and forth.
Looking at profitability we're back to something around earlier February, and I'm still surprised the hashrate is not moving again up, probably it's not as much as the BTC price but the increase one electricity costs.
I'm still wondering who would be willing to sell large miners energy at 2-3 cents with the current tariffs and fuel costs.

Hopefully, we go flat till the next Bitmain batch delivery, it should be early May if I recall correctly.

As for the video cards price, I really expect a price drop, especially in the used market, ETH makes the biggest chunk of rewards a day, there is simply no coin that would be able to provide the miners with the same revenue or even half of it. If Buttercup could be trusted about the dates when it plans to be doing something every smart guy would be willing to sell those before the actual switch.
Lol, check the prices here in Europe, it's 1689, but Euros.

[philipma1957]

Slight drop, the drop is the price is a bit more serious so it won't balance things but it's again the same back and forth.
Looking at profitability we're back to something around earlier February, and I'm still surprised the hashrate is not moving again up, probably it's not as much as the BTC price but the increase one electricity costs.
I'm still wondering who would be willing to sell large miners energy at 2-3 cents with the current tariffs and fuel costs.

Hopefully, we go flat till the next Bitmain batch delivery, it should be early May if I recall correctly.

As for the video cards price, I really expect a price drop, especially in the used market, ETH makes the biggest chunk of rewards a day, there is simply no coin that would be able to provide the miners with the same revenue or even half of it. If Buttercup could be trusted about the dates when it plans to be doing something every smart guy would be willing to sell those before the actual switch.
Lol, check the prices here in Europe, it's 1689, but Euros.

Texas and some other states flare a ton of natural gas just burns it. Pipe line is too costly.

A lot of generator huts burn the gas and mine. The gas is free as it was being flared and burned.



https://www.protocol.com/bulletins/exxon-bitcoin-mining-gas-flaring

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/26/exxon-mining-bitcoin-with-crusoe-energy-in-north-dakota-bakken-region.html


I can't find the Texas link but it is there and in ND

[NotFuzzyWarm]

...
Texas and some other states flare a ton of natural gas just burns it. Pipe line is too costly.
A lot of generator huts burn the gas and mine. The gas is free as it was being flared and burned

https://www.protocol.com/bulletins/exxon-bitcoin-mining-gas-flaring

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/26/exxon-mining-bitcoin-with-crusoe-energy-in-north-dakota-bakken-region.html

I can't find the Texas link but it is there and in ND

Not surprised in the least. Considering that as I've said before regarding flare gas mining, drilling companies pay a very hefty penalty for flaring I'm rather amazed it took so long for the major gas/oil companies to start doing it.

Yes it still burns the gas and releases CO2 and in the amounts of gas needed to feed 100's of kw worth of engines/generators the companies will be paying emission taxes but - because the gas is being put to use and not simply flared those taxes are much lower than flaring penalties.

The generators and com links are already in place to power the drilling site equipment and monitor/control things so it makes for a perfect setup.

[stompix]

Pure curiosity, what's the amount of power that can be extracted from one well, I gues it comes to the size of it but in short something between x and y? I've read that all of it could generate 400 billions kwh, pretty sure they've said billions of kwh to make it look bigger, Twh wouldn't have sounded that impressive, but how much can one provide?

As for the difficulty, - 1.26 %, could have been better but still nice to see some compensation for the below 40k scare.

Latest Block:   731994  (23 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.6476%  (187 / 182.18 expected, 4.82 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.4789% and +2.7689%

Meanwhile, the crypto press is again printing garbage after garbage

Bitcoin miners unmoved by low profits as hash rate grows for the 10th consecutive month
Ana Nicenko 3 hours ago 2 mins read

Guess it's time for Ana to search for a new job..

[philipma1957]

Pure curiosity, what's the amount of power that can be extracted from one well, I gues it comes to the size of it but in short something between x and y? I've read that all of it could generate 400 billions kwh, pretty sure they've said billions of kwh to make it look bigger, Twh wouldn't have sounded that impressive, but how much can one provide?

As for the difficulty, - 1.26 %, could have been better but still nice to see some compensation for the below 40k scare.

Latest Block:   731994  (23 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.6476%  (187 / 182.18 expected, 4.82 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.4789% and +2.7689%

Meanwhile, the crypto press is again printing garbage after garbage

Bitcoin miners unmoved by low profits as hash rate grows for the 10th consecutive month
Ana Nicenko 3 hours ago 2 mins read

Guess it's time for Ana to search for a new job..

clue less writing.  a s17 set to lowest power draw on vnish does 38th at 960watts or 25 kwatts a day at 10 cents that is $2.50 in power it earns about $6.84 or net $4.34

at 5 cent power it burns $1.25 or net $5.59

if al you have is 30 s17's all paid off  and 5 cent power you are making $167.70 daily profit. in 50 days you can add an s19 so 30 x 38 = 1140 th and add 110 very 50 days. by years and you are at 7x100= 700th+1140th = 1840th

about 60% growth for your farm and fully paid off.  the growth in hash is bullish.  But we may be becoming like 2018 Time will tell.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   732863  (22 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.4927%  (1056 / 1030.32 expected, 25.68 ahead)



Previous Difficulty:   28587155782195.14                            
Current Difficulty:   28225928151211.1                            
Next Difficulty:   between 28771534825837 and 28935559410553
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.9330% and +2.5141%
Previous Retarget:   April 14, 2022 at 4:43 AM  (-1.2636%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 8:33 PM  (in 6d 12h 6m 31s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 10:24 PM  (in 6d 13h 57m 42s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 15h 49m 41s and 13d 17h 40m 52s

price got back to 42k

and we are over 2% diff jump

almost at a diff of 30t !

[stompix]

Things are getting interesting again, looking at Phil's post in just 5 days we went ahead by 64 blocks:

Latest Block:   733646  (43 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.1064%  (1839 / 1749.66 expected, 89.34 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 7:24 PM  (in 1d 4h 4m 0s)

That means nearly 13 blocks more per day, 9% a day above the previous average, and!, all this with the price going down from the previous period and not the best timing in this one either.
So, early May shipping from Bitmain and Micro?
Let's assume it's just 5%, that's 10 exa, ~90k s19pro, or 70k s19xp!

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   733798  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   105.2054%  (1991 / 1892.49 expected, 98.51 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   28587155782195.14                            
Current Difficulty:   28225928151211.1                            
Next Difficulty:   between 29698347474028 and 29698585752495
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.2165% and +5.2174%
Previous Retarget:   April 14, 2022 at 4:43 AM  (-1.2636%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 12:06 PM  (in 0d 3h 57m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 12:06 PM  (in 0d 3h 57m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 7h 22m 30s and 13d 7h 22m 39s

And in the last 23 hours  we made about 152 blocks and are now headed to do close to 5.35%

price is about 39k

to put it in perspective

s17 set to 1500 watts can do 48th

36 kwatts a day makes $8.41

or

15 cent power = 5.40 cost and 3.01 profit
10 cent power = 3.60 cost and 4.81 profit
 5  cent power = 1.80 cost and 6.61 profit

numbers like this mean hash rate growth

I would argue if we are to bottom out  hashrate needs to 2.5x increase this year.

Or for miners it is still a crab market = sideways

If we get to 5/6 cent power at break even at 39000 price the diff will be over 60t.  At some point cheap power will not be there. Not sure when and if that is going to happen.

Does anyone know how bad covid is in China ? I am reading about a lot of lockdowns.

[alh]

Re China:

What I have read is that Shanghai is locked down, but may emerge soon. In China "Locked Down" is fairly draconian and way more impactful than many Western countries would contemplate. I have also read that China is trying to follow a "Zero COVID infection" policy. That means that they do regular testing and at the 1st sign of infection, they take action. They don't wait for the impact of infection to be felt (hospitalizations or death) to manifest. Furthermore they respond quickly to any hint of an outbreak in an area and rapidly isolate folks into quarantine facilities without consideration of family units. The isolation is for 14 days as I recall, with little chance of an early exit. This appears to me to be an extension of their initial COVID response back in 2020 in terms of test, and rapid isolation if infected.

I hope that anyone with first hand knowledge will refute or amend my comments.

You can see how impactful the "Zero Tolerance" policy could be on business operations across the country, and across it's entire scope of businesses (technology, steel, transportation, etc).

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   733865  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   123.9897%  (42 / 33.87 expected, 8.13 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   28225928151211.1                            
Current Difficulty:   29794407589312.08                            
Next Difficulty:   between 30082288860238 and 38799482682432
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.9662% and +30.2240%

Previous Retarget:   Today at 11:04 AM  (+5.5569%)

Next Retarget (earliest):   May 8, 2022 at 6:03 PM  (in 11d 1h 20m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 11, 2022 at 8:23 AM  (in 13d 15h 40m 25s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 11d 6h 59m 24s and 13d 21h 19m 10s

solid jump of 5.55%

[mikeywith]

solid jump of 5.55%

The was a huge one, I believe this has to do with the previous drop of - 1.26% (some hashrate went offline for a while for some reason), If I am correct, we should not see 5+ anymore, it's just way too much hashrate IMO, 3-4 should be somehow the limit as long as we don't get a negative.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   734428  (3 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   104.3076%  (605 / 580.02 expected, 24.98 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   28225928151211.1                             
Current Difficulty:   29794407589312.08                           
Next Difficulty:   between 30478173725160 and 31164963797392
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.2949% and +4.6000%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 11:04 AM  (+5.5569%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 10, 2022 at 9:11 PM  (in 9d 9h 27m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 11, 2022 at 3:59 AM  (in 9d 16h 15m 7s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 10h 7m 27s and 13d 16h 55m 17s

Strong move again?

[kano]

lol - at the very unreliable position of 36% into the diff change, it's at 6.6%

[stompix]

Latest Block:   734713  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.3262%  (890 / 844.99 expected, 45.01 ahead)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 7h 0m 32s and 13d 12h 18m 34s

45% of the blocks mined, we're still above 5%, if we hit another 5.5% this is going to sting a bit, price is still around $38k, not encouraging but not that bad either or it's just me getting used to this. Close to lowest revenue per th/s in the last year, probably a ton of miners still to be shipped and installed, no move on the price, all things to turn you bearish.

As for the growing hashrate, I'm wondering who is getting that gear, my initial hunch was for the guys allied behind the foundry but seems like the pool has actually mined fewer blocks in the last 3 days compared to last month or 7 days, so who might be the culprit or the early buyer?

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   734774  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   105.5642%  (951 / 900.87 expected, 50.13 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   28225928151211.1                             
Current Difficulty:   29794407589312.08                           
Next Difficulty:   between 31010922397450 and 31508938538187
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.0830% and +5.7545%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 11:04 AM  (+5.5569%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 10, 2022 at 5:21 PM  (in 7d 0h 8m 39s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 10, 2022 at 10:18 PM  (in 7d 5h 5m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 6h 17m 23s and 13d 11h 13m 56s

very tough numbers