2022 Diff thread.

[mikeywith]

Meanwhile, resellers still ask for $8,500 used no warranty s19 (110th version).
And somewhere somebody probably buys!

I can get you a brand new one for less than that,   gear prices started to "slowly" react to the profitability drop, I think S19 will sell for below 5k in the not-so-distant future.

I want more price drops, and I want more cheap miners, I also want all those large corps who paid 10k or more per gear to suffer and stop gambling with investors' money.

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[Coinfarm ventures]

I want more price drops, and I want more cheap miners, I also want all those large corps who paid 10k or more per gear to suffer and stop gambling with investors' money.

The mindset of these mega-corporations is that mining is a speculative investment that they will hold onto for years, even if BTC goes to $10k. They or their investors are used to losing money for 10 years in other business models then making up the difference later. That is how most tech startup companies work. They are perfectly happy with breaking even during a bear market.

They probably can't sell the equipment or close up shop because they usually buy the land, pay to build the warehouses, and depreciate the miners. It's extremely hard for them to liquidate even if they wanted to, not to mention 'admitting defeat' to the investors.  So they aren't upset as long as they can pay their power bill, which is already very low at 3-4 cents.

So as miner prices go down, they will buy even more and build more warehouses, which will put a damper on the price declines. I won't be surprised if new S19 95T units cost $5000 each if BTC is worth $15k. I think this time will be different from the past, where miner prices did react to profitability.

The only market that would have more reasonable prices is the used video card market. There are very few GPU mega-mining farms. The average GPU miner has 2 or 3 rigs and they're much more sensitive to profitability. It's easy for them to liquidate to starving gamers who still need cards.

[philipma1957]

I want more price drops, and I want more cheap miners, I also want all those large corps who paid 10k or more per gear to suffer and stop gambling with investors' money.

The mindset of these mega-corporations is that mining is a speculative investment that they will hold onto for years, even if BTC goes to $10k. They or their investors are used to losing money for 10 years in other business models then making up the difference later. That is how most tech startup companies work. They are perfectly happy with breaking even during a bear market.

They probably can't sell the equipment or close up shop because they usually buy the land, pay to build the warehouses, and depreciate the miners. It's extremely hard for them to liquidate even if they wanted to, not to mention 'admitting defeat' to the investors.  So they aren't upset as long as they can pay their power bill, which is already very low at 3-4 cents.

So as miner prices go down, they will buy even more and build more warehouses, which will put a damper on the price declines. I won't be surprised if new S19 95T units cost $5000 each if BTC is worth $15k. I think this time will be different from the past, where miner prices did react to profitability.

The only market that would have more reasonable prices is the used video card market. There are very few GPU mega-mining farms. The average GPU miner has 2 or 3 rigs and they're much more sensitive to profitability. It's easy for them to liquidate to starving gamers who still need cards.

when it was july 2020 I grabbed a used s17 for 785.

we preordered an s19 from bitmain for 2300 and with tax it was about 3k

So the s19 can drop a lot.

Or better yet the s19xp may one day drop to 4k.

but a lot is unknown here.

luna/ust + a pile of btc about 30000 coins all setup around april 1 and failed by may 12 dropped the overall crypto cap from 2.1 trill down to 1.35 trill.

a loss of 20 bill a day for say 41 days in a row.

picture eth with all these wrapped and layered coins. picture it going pos in late august this year and burning up as well it should. as we all know pos = piece of shit.

i am thinking the market drops from 1.35 trill to 500 or 600 bill.

[mikeywith]

So as miner prices go down, they will buy even more and build more warehouses, which will put a damper on the price declines. I won't be surprised if new S19 95T units cost $5000 each if BTC is worth $15k. I think this time will be different from the past, where miner prices did react to profitability.

Don't they have to default at some point? I mean the term "unlimited money" is just an exaggeration.

Someone on telegram was talking about this the other day and he said most of those folks take loans to buy new gears and the collateral is the previous gears they have, if that is correct, then the more prices drop the more money they have to add to the collateral which creates even more pressure.

Does anyone here know how those large corps actually get all that money?

[philipma1957]

So as miner prices go down, they will buy even more and build more warehouses, which will put a damper on the price declines. I won't be surprised if new S19 95T units cost $5000 each if BTC is worth $15k. I think this time will be different from the past, where miner prices did react to profitability.

Don't they have to default at some point? I mean the term "unlimited money" is just an exaggeration.

Someone on telegram was talking about this the other day and he said most of those folks take loans to buy new gears and the collateral is the previous gears they have, if that is correct, then the more prices drop the more money they have to add to the collateral which creates even more pressure.

Does anyone here know how those large corps actually get all that money?

corporate wellfare.


many governments feed lots of cash to a lot of companies.

[Coinfarm ventures]

Don't they have to default at some point? I mean the term "unlimited money" is just an exaggeration.

Someone on telegram was talking about this the other day and he said most of those folks take loans to buy new gears and the collateral is the previous gears they have, if that is correct, then the more prices drop the more money they have to add to the collateral which creates even more pressure.

Does anyone here know how those large corps actually get all that money?

In the U.S. most corporations can choose a 'Chapter 11 bankruptcy' if they default on their bills/debt owed. The lenders/investors get a fraction of what they're owed while the company continues to operate. That would include ASIC collateral lenders. Some corporations have been bailed out/went bankrupt multiple times but have been propped up by the (corrupt) government, at the expense of smaller competitors (like the people on this forum).

A corporate mining farm can restructure their operations or their debt. Somebody would be willing to buy some of their assets, at the right price. The company that gave them the ASIC-backed loan could even take ownership of some of the equipment. The profit motive is to keep the miners mining, not to sell them or shut down (unless revenue < power cost). So the hashrate will still remain on the network, even though the warehouse(s) or ASICs changed hands.

I disagree with Philip when it comes to corporate welfare, because an "energy hogging power sucking company" is the least likely to get a bailout from Big Gov't. They would bail out the motor companies/airlines/big banks first. The Chapter 11 stuff is more than enough to keep the farm operating anyway.

How do the corp-o-miners get the money in the first place?? Simply by finding billionaires who are uneducated on the risks of crypto mining, have no experience operating a mining farm, but have cash that has no other outlet. Where do these millionaire investors get the cash from in the first place? You guessed it... from government handouts like PPP loans, printed money that inflates stock/real estate prices (thus giving the rich more margin to borrow), and profit from closing down small businesses in 2020 while big box stores stayed open.

when it was july 2020 I grabbed a used s17 for 785.

we preordered an s19 from bitmain for 2300 and with tax it was about 3k

So the s19 can drop a lot.

I don't think we'll see those kinds of ASIC prices ever again. Hashrate has become more centralized and corporatized. They are in it for the long run and don't care if their investment is a total loss.

[Saskfarmer]

Look at the listed companies.  Marathon’s stock has been cut to a 1/3.  Rewards cut in half and they must have took on a boat load of hardware at the peak of the market even at what must have been a decent discount.
The Fed hasn’t even really started QT and the everything market totally shit the bed.
Between inflation and the measures to correct it I have a hard time thinking this is even close to the bottom.
Nonetheless we’re in infrastructure mode and would love to fill it up with cheap gear!  
I’ve seen some $65/TH which is still high at this price.

[philipma1957]

Look at the listed companies.  Marathon’s stock has been cut to a 1/3.  Rewards cut in half and they must have took on a boat load of hardware at the peak of the market even at what must have been a decent discount.
The Fed hasn’t even really started QT and the everything market totally shit the bed.
Between inflation and the measures to correct it I have a hard time thinking this is even close to the bottom.
Nonetheless we’re in infrastructure mode and would love to fill it up with cheap gear!  
I’ve seen some $65/TH which is still high at this price.

back to 31.2k from 25.3k
maybe it goes to 41k by fri the 20th

25.3k may have been it.

but if the fed does .5% again things could become very interesting

[mikeywith]

back to 31.2k from 25.3k
maybe it goes to 41k by fri the 20th

back to 30k as I type, but I agree, I think a correction of some type is about to happen, maybe sub 40k is possible before one last leg down and then a few months of side ways between 20k to 30k seems very reasonable at least based on previous cycles, no new ATH for at least a year from now.

Too complicated for me to understand, U.S style of capitalism shit is just so complicated, so much money is created out of thin air, inflates everything around it, and a few people get to convert that shit into real-world assets, creating massive inflation,then sell the top to the med class and poor people, reck the market, buy cheap, rinse and repeat.

Eventually, those large crops might get to the point where they have to declare bankruptcy, while they might still function as per your explanation, good luck finding anyone to invest their money with large mining crops.

[Coinfarm ventures]

back to 30k as I type, but I agree, I think a correction of some type is about to happen, maybe sub 40k is possible before one last leg down and then a few months of side ways between 20k to 30k seems very reasonable at least based on previous cycles, no new ATH for at least a year from now.

I agree that this is the most likely scenario. According to the HODL price model (just because it was correct so far doesn't mean it is a crystal ball), we've already crossed the lower boundary. We could stay below that yellow line for a few months, but not for 1-2 years. My prediction is just a little higher than yours. I think we'll have a ~$30k crab market for the rest of the year.

Too complicated for me to understand, U.S style of capitalism shit is just so complicated, so much money is created out of thin air, inflates everything around it, and a few people get to convert that shit into real-world assets, creating massive inflation,then sell the top to the med class and poor people, reck the market, buy cheap, rinse and repeat.

Eventually, those large crops might get to the point where they have to declare bankruptcy, while they might still function as per your explanation, good luck finding anyone to invest their money with large mining crops.

Great job summing it up accurately in just 1 sentence. It's not even 'capitalism' anymore. The U.S. economy should be called 'cronyism' or 'corporatism'. I had to spend weeks researching the tax code, watching videos and talking to accountants to figure out the tricks that the rich use. These tricks are important because they can lead to 20%+ more profit or 10-20% cheaper capital cost.

It doesn't matter to us smaller miners whether Marathon stock goes down 70% or Whitstone declares bankruptcy. The only thing that matters is the price of ASICs and network difficulty. The corporate equipment will keep mining, regardless of who owns it, and network difficulty won't go down by much unless BTC goes < $15k for months.

If they can barely pay their operating costs, why would they sell the miners and then owe income tax for depreciation recapture? They paid $6000 for an Antminer S19 and wrote it off, it's worth $2000 now, so they have to cough up $420 to the Feds, even though that S19 is making just $3/day of profit. It'll take them 6 months to even afford the tax bill if they sold it. I doubt they would sell the miners even if BTC is $8k. They'd probably seal the warehouse like an Egyptian mummy tomb, hoping for BTC price to rebound.

Many of these corp-o-mines, especially the U.S ones, don't even sell the coin. They HODL it. So they aren't motivated by short-term profit.

[philipma1957]

back to 30k as I type, but I agree, I think a correction of some type is about to happen, maybe sub 40k is possible before one last leg down and then a few months of side ways between 20k to 30k seems very reasonable at least based on previous cycles, no new ATH for at least a year from now.

I agree that this is the most likely scenario. According to the HODL price model (just because it was correct so far doesn't mean it is a crystal ball), we've already crossed the lower boundary. We could stay below that yellow line for a few months, but not for 1-2 years. My prediction is just a little higher than yours. I think we'll have a ~$30k crab market for the rest of the year.

Too complicated for me to understand, U.S style of capitalism shit is just so complicated, so much money is created out of thin air, inflates everything around it, and a few people get to convert that shit into real-world assets, creating massive inflation,then sell the top to the med class and poor people, reck the market, buy cheap, rinse and repeat.

Eventually, those large crops might get to the point where they have to declare bankruptcy, while they might still function as per your explanation, good luck finding anyone to invest their money with large mining crops.

Great job summing it up accurately in just 1 sentence. It's not even 'capitalism' anymore. The U.S. economy should be called 'cronyism' or 'corporatism'. I had to spend weeks researching the tax code, watching videos and talking to accountants to figure out the tricks that the rich use. These tricks are important because they can lead to 20%+ more profit or 10-20% cheaper capital cost.

It doesn't matter to us smaller miners whether Marathon stock goes down 70% or Whitstone declares bankruptcy. The only thing that matters is the price of ASICs and network difficulty. The corporate equipment will keep mining, regardless of who owns it, and network difficulty won't go down by much unless BTC goes < $15k for months.

If they can barely pay their operating costs, why would they sell the miners and then owe income tax for depreciation recapture? They paid $6000 for an Antminer S19 and wrote it off, it's worth $2000 now, so they have to cough up $420 to the Feds, even though that S19 is making just $3/day of profit. It'll take them 6 months to even afford the tax bill if they sold it. I doubt they would sell the miners even if BTC is $8k. They'd probably seal the warehouse like an Egyptian mummy tomb, hoping for BTC price to rebound.

Many of these corp-o-mines, especially the U.S ones, don't even sell the coin. They HODL it. So they aren't motivated by short-term profit.

Yeah if you are lucky enough to get 300-400k worth of gear at good power and stable price for the power .

You can make a living for 3 or 4 guys but you are by no means big.

Our solar will anchor power costs but it will still be limited as we are just about at 450kwatts which is 75kwatts 24/7/365

We found a new site with about 25,000 square feet of roof.  and 5 empty acres for possible ground mounts.

if it works out maybe this site will allow for 200kwatt on roof and 500kwatt on ground

which is about 116kwatts 24/7/365 time will tell.

it is a battle to get good sites.

[stompix]

Eventually, those large crops might get to the point where they have to declare bankruptcy, while they might still function as per your explanation, good luck finding anyone to invest their money with large mining crops.

We have something close in the EU
If a company goes bankrupt you can appoint a judicial overseer that will consult with the debtors and if the company without servicing the debt is capable of staying afloat in most cases it will rule against liquidation, and it will grant 12 months increments periods in which the company is protected from any debt related cases. The more people they have employed the easier it gets, I know a case of small chain stores that had over 1000 employees and they got like that without paying their debt for 5 years, fortunately, that was a happy case, they've managed to recover and actually pay the settlements.

So if you think of Mara or Riot going under, after the second halving maybe 

And finally, we're going down a bit although I'm pretty sure it will change drastically pretty soon

Latest Block:   736571  (25 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   97.5315%  (732 / 750.53 expected, 18.53 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.4631% and -1.4787%

We're behind 18 blocks, but in the last 24 hours, we had only 130 mined, so that's where 14 come from, if it weren't for the previous day we would be at 99% so this could turn positive in just a few days. As for the price, I don't see that breakthrough, not this month unless something big happens. People trolling the %^%$ out of Twitter and Reddit about hundreds of suicides caused by terra and just are not helping at all.

[philipma1957]

Eventually, those large crops might get to the point where they have to declare bankruptcy, while they might still function as per your explanation, good luck finding anyone to invest their money with large mining crops.

We have something close in the EU
If a company goes bankrupt you can appoint a judicial overseer that will consult with the debtors and if the company without servicing the debt is capable of staying afloat in most cases it will rule against liquidation, and it will grant 12 months increments periods in which the company is protected from any debt related cases. The more people they have employed the easier it gets, I know a case of small chain stores that had over 1000 employees and they got like that without paying their debt for 5 years, fortunately, that was a happy case, they've managed to recover and actually pay the settlements.

So if you think of Mara or Riot going under, after the second halving maybe 

And finally, we're going down a bit although I'm pretty sure it will change drastically pretty soon

Latest Block:   736571  (25 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   97.5315%  (732 / 750.53 expected, 18.53 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.4631% and -1.4787%

We're behind 18 blocks, but in the last 24 hours, we had only 130 mined, so that's where 14 come from, if it weren't for the previous day we would be at 99% so this could turn positive in just a few days. As for the price, I don't see that breakthrough, not this month unless something big happens. People trolling the %^%$ out of Twitter and Reddit about hundreds of suicides caused by terra and just are not helping at all.

any real suicide evidence?

[stompix]

any real suicide evidence?

No.
Of course, the fact that we don't have proof about somebody doesn't mean it didn't happen but the numbers that were circulating on Twitter and even the lower tier that was mentioned by newspapers are not true for sure, especially since most of those that make such claims are new accounts with zero previous posts.

For example:
https://www.geeksultd.com/2022/05/8-confirmed-suicide-due-to-the-luna-crash-why-luna-crashed/
The proof for their "confirmed" is a tweet that says:

Apparently there has been 8 confirmed suicide due to the $Luna crash.

[Coinfarm ventures]

Apparently there has been 8 confirmed suicide due to the $Luna crash.

Can't believe Darwinism is literally at work when it comes to crypto. It's stunning how many people never learn not to put all their eggs in one basket.

[mikeywith]

any real suicide evidence?

Not sure if anyone can come up with any solid evidence, but taking a somehow an educated guess, I believe there must be serval of them, and here is my reasoning; the Anchor Protocol was paying "20% APY", more than 70% of the UST supply was in Anchor, the 20% APY was so tempting that people were almost selling their organs to put money into, I personally know a few folks who went all-in into that shit, I am pretty sure there were people who borrowed money against their houses to get that massive stable APY from Anchor, only to realize later on that if "it's too good to be true", you all know the rest.

While this is an altcoin kind of stuff, but it does affect BTC regardless of how anyone thinks, BTC as it stands right now is a high-risk speculative asset, the average joe and his grandmother don't really know the technical differences between a solid ecosystem like BTC and a shitcoin like Luna, and thus "confidence" is gone, and it will take time to recover what has been broken.

Meanwhile, and back on topic, the pace seems to be picking up, looks like we can still have a positive change despite the price.

Current Pace:   99.6189%  (865 / 868.31 expected, 3.31 behind)

[philipma1957]

any real suicide evidence?

Not sure if anyone can come up with any solid evidence, but taking a somehow an educated guess, I believe there must be serval of them, and here is my reasoning; the Anchor Protocol was paying "20% APY", more than 70% of the UST supply was in Anchor, the 20% APY was so tempting that people were almost selling their organs to put money into, I personally know a few folks who went all-in into that shit, I am pretty sure there were people who borrowed money against their houses to get that massive stable APY from Anchor, only to realize later on that if "it's too good to be true", you all know the rest.

While this is an altcoin kind of stuff, but it does affect BTC regardless of how anyone thinks, BTC as it stands right now is a high-risk speculative asset, the average joe and his grandmother don't really know the technical differences between a solid ecosystem like BTC and a shitcoin like Luna, and thus "confidence" is gone, and it will take time to recover what has been broken.

Meanwhile, and back on topic, the pace seems to be picking up, looks like we can still have a positive change despite the price.

Current Pace:   99.6189%  (865 / 868.31 expected, 3.31 behind)

Well if the pos morons would understand pos=piece of shit and that pow is it no more or less. we could wipe out a lot of crap that simply has no value.

I would have like to see that the head of luna coin  was busted or died it would be only fitting.

[Coinfarm ventures]

Well if the pos morons would understand pos=piece of shit and that pow is it no more or less. we could wipe out a lot of crap that simply has no value.

PoS is worse than the Federal Reserve. At least the Fed gives 'free money' paychecks to ordinary people 10% of the time despite making the rich richer 90% of the time. PoS is like Blackrock or the WEF deciding when your 'meat quota' will run out this month, otherwise you vill eat zee bugs. PoW on the other hand is a 'jury' in a courtroom where a fair trial is held without conflicts of interest.

[philipma1957]

Well if the pos morons would understand pos=piece of shit and that pow is it no more or less. we could wipe out a lot of crap that simply has no value.

PoS is worse than the Federal Reserve. At least the Fed gives 'free money' paychecks to ordinary people 10% of the time despite making the rich richer 90% of the time. PoS is like Blackrock or the WEF deciding when your 'meat quota' will run out this month, otherwise you vill eat zee bugs. PoW on the other hand is a 'jury' in a courtroom where a fair trial is held without conflicts of interest.

close enough.

it is also a threat or club designed to damage BTC

If people could only understand this pos would have very little ability to exsist.

[robertpaulsen]

While this is an altcoin kind of stuff, but it does affect BTC regardless of how anyone thinks, BTC as it stands right now is a high-risk speculative asset, the average joe and his grandmother don't really know the technical differences between a solid ecosystem like BTC and a shitcoin like Luna, and thus "confidence" is gone, and it will take time to recover what has been broken.

What I find also true, is that during this bull run, the average joe and his grandma heard about bitcoin, and learned that it did actually proved to be a good investment. We are going full bear now, but given the following recession, inflation, war, energy crisis, and whatever else, the next bull run could be the perfect storm of these events which could lead to grandmas buying btc.