2022 Diff thread.

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

I read the New York law and it grandfathers current mines. It does not allow new mines. This is in respect to coal and oil power plants that are providing power behind the meter.

Ie an old shut down plant that reopens to do one thing provide a mine power will not be able to do it with a new mine. However if they are already doing it it is cool.

I am certain this is protection for a large upstate mine that now has behind the meter rates and will not face any competition from a new mine

[1715649992]

1715649992

[1715649992]

1715649992

[1715649992]

1715649992

[1715649992]

1715649992

[1715649992]

1715649992

[1715649992]

1715649992

[Coinfarm ventures]

I am certain this is protection for a large upstate mine that now has behind the meter rates and will not face any competition from a new mine

That's right. Classic Noo Yawk mafia-type corruption. I've lived near New Yawk, I know how these people operate.

ERCOT energy prices are going to double this year, which means Texas is no longer a good destination for miners. Natural gas price has doubled along with heat wave issues. Commercial index prices for small 1MW farms will be 9-10¢ all in instead of 6-7¢. Even a 100MW-scale farm probably can't get anything lower than 6¢ now there.

My prediction is that for 2022-2023, new mining farms will flock to the Midwest, Colorado, Oklahoma, etc. There are dozens of trapped power sources in the Midwest near rivers. Some southern states like GA might have cheap power as well. Washington is probably overcrowded with miners.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

I read the New York law and it grandfathers current mines. It does not allow new mines. This is in respect to coal and oil power plants that are providing power behind the meter.
Ie an old shut down plant that reopens to do one thing provide a mine power will not be able to do it with a new mine. However if they are already doing it it is cool.

I am certain this is protection for a large upstate mine that now has behind the meter rates and will not face any competition from a new mine

More than one large mining operation in Upstate NY.
Thing is, there is also at least one large natural gas fueled reserve (peaking) power plant located in the Finger Lakes area that mine during non-peak power times to keep the power plant operating at peak efficiency by not having throttle the boilers & steam turbines up and down. Instead of the usual 30min-1hr it takes to cycle the plant up & down they can now near instantly shift power from their on-site miners to the grid and after peak loads drop almost just as fast shift back to powering miners.

I do hope the new law(s) take them as well as any coal/oil fired reserve peak load plants into account. I should emphasize that peaking plants are sprinkled all over the grid and only run at full output when needed, the rest of the time they are idling with minimal power sent to the regional grids. That makes them different from main power plants whose purpose is to feed The Grid. Tapping into them (main grid supply power plants) just because a mine can be setup next door to them or even on-site -- ja that is an arguable point.

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

We will need to wait and see how this unwinds.  BTW this bill that is up for passage for sale of BTC for cash or stablecoin

Has a $200 gains exception this is a federal bill.

https://www.lummis.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/Lummis-Gillibrand-Responsible-Financial-Innovation-Act-Final.pdf


I read it a a real boost to btc

"SEC. 201. GAIN OR LOSS FROM DISPOSITION OF VIRTUAL CURRENCY.
(a) In General.—Part III of subchapter B of chapter 1 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 is amended by inserting after section 139I the following new section:
“SEC. 139J. GAIN OR LOSS FROM DISPOSITION OF VIRTUAL CURRENCY.
“(a) In General.—Gross income shall not include gain or loss from the disposition of virtual currency in a personal transaction (as such term is defined in section 988(e)) for the purchase of goods or services.
“(b) Limitation.—
“(1) IN GENERAL.—The amount of gain or loss excluded from gross income under subsection (a) with respect to a disposition shall not exceed $200.
“(2) AGGREGATION RULE.—For purposes of this subsection, all dispositions which are part of the same transaction (or a series of related transactions) shall be treated as one disposition.
“(3) OTHER DISPOSITIONS.—For purposes of this subsection, subsection (a) shall not include dispositions in which virtual currency is sold or exchanged for cash, cash equivalents, digital assets (as defined in section 9801, title 31, United States Code), or other securities or commodities."

Quoted from link above


So if I buy a 1000 dollar miner using 801 worth of btc  that went to up to 1000 it is a tax free gain.

Means a lot of book keeping.

It could also be I buy 800 worth of btc it goes to 999 and I buy a gpu.


It counts as no gain of the 199.

I could also have 400 in purchased btc and pay 599 for pc also no tax on that gain.

This is a big encouragement to making more purchases with btc.

Obviously you need to track the value of the btc you spend.

Now that paypal lets you pull btc from its account it will encourage spending some btc.

I am going to buy 100 in btc today on my paypal account knowing that if it goes up to 299 and I spend it it is a non taxable event.


back on topic we are + increase oh well.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator...

Latest Block:   739800  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.4800%  (1945 / 1935.71 expected, 9.29 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   31251101365711.12                            
Current Difficulty:   29897409688833.63                            
Next Difficulty:   between 30054644256756 and 30054840549180
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5259% and +0.5266%
Previous Retarget:   May 25, 2022 at 10:54 AM  (-4.3317%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 9:17 AM  (in 0d 11h 46m 36s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 9:17 AM  (in 0d 11h 46m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 23m 41s and 13d 22h 23m 48s
...

[stompix]

I hope we've reached a point where at least when it comes to difficulty the double digits changes are almost gone

I'm getting pretty good at completely going the wrong way with my predictions, probably I should draw a graph on how I see the price for the next month and everyone betting on the opposite might make a fortune!

Latest Block:   740211  (27 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   110.2082%  (340 / 308.51 expected, 31.49 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.1501% and +10.9726%

No more double digits! It was clear as the sky right now as I'm baking at 31 degrees Celsius that this shit was going to happen. 
Fortunately for my 100 times wounded pride it has been only two days, so again, starting to predict things, it won't keep this pace, I guess, I hope!

That aside, both Canaan and bitmain have lowered the price, I don't know how real that 51% discount is when it comes to Canaan but all those ~100th models are down. Interestingly no change in the hydro with 2023...2023! delivery! Is anyone planning to expand?

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

I want more gear. We have power and are working on better cooling

[Coinfarm ventures]

it won't keep this pace, I guess, I hope!

Hah, mining farms are now being measured at the gigawatt scale:
Soon it will be too hard to track megawatts.



You're probably right that short term difficulty will stay flat or grow slowly. But not 2-3 years from now!

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

I want more gear. We have power and are working on better cooling

So to follow up on better cooling we have a hessaire installed.

https://www.amazon.com/Hessaire-Products-C92-Evaporative-Cooler/dp/B07YVYPXH8/ref=sr_1_1?

we feed it with a pex line and finally have it tuned in correctly

we have 2 sensors that show humidity and temp. they feed to 4 cell phones and an ipad.

intake nearest the hessiare is only 84 temp and output at the end of the room is 96

no hessaire and we are over 102 on an 82 f day

and over 110 on a 92 f day

hottest day so far was 97 and we keep max number at 98

I know we can add more units we have 6x 30 amp lines left

we may add avalons from

https://shop.canaan.io/products/

maybe a few of these

https://shop.canaan.io/products/avalon-miner-a1166-pro-81t-3196w


or maybe a few of these
https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020220520140523100xUiuV90K0692

[alh]

For whatever reason, BTC price has now declined to: $27,499. It's been steadily below $30K for a couple of days.

Update about 24 hours later: BTC price now at $25,265.

[mikeywith]

So to follow up on better cooling we have a hessaire installed.

Don't these evap coolers increase humidity? ok they probably do, but isn't too bad? do keep before and after humidity figures? I mine in a very hot place, but in the winter humidity goes up a little and it damaged way more gears for me than heat ever did, thank God we managed to control it later but still, humidity is a worse enemy than heat.

https://shop.canaan.io/products/avalon-miner-a1166-pro-81t-3196w

Those are shit gears according to the general public, people have reported a very high failure rate for those gears, which is probably why they sell for a lot cheaper.

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

So to follow up on better cooling we have a hessaire installed.

Don't these evap coolers increase humidity? ok they probably do, but isn't too bad? do keep before and after humidity figures? I mine in a very hot place, but in the winter humidity goes up a little and it damaged way more gears for me than heat ever did, thank God we managed to control it later but still, humidity is a worse enemy than heat.

https://shop.canaan.io/products/avalon-miner-a1166-pro-81t-3196w

Those are shit gears according to the general public, people have reported a very high failure rate for those gears, which is probably why they sell for a lot cheaper.

NJ is not the most humid place.

my levels in the room are input 40-50%

output 30-40 %

we had a day long rain today so we are at 50 in and  40 out.  at this time outdoor humidity was 90-100% due to solid rain.

I suspect we will do 25-30% humidity input on dry days in the summer. Most days we are doing fine on humidity. I am thinking your location is far warmer with much more humidity.

More like Florida USA then New Jeresy.

an added benefit is less dust.

Dust has been out biggest issue at the two rooms in Clifton NJ.

[alh]

So what's the current revenue for a days worth of 1TH work? It can't be good with BTC at $22,347.

[stompix]

So what's the current revenue for a days worth of 1TH work? It can't be good with BTC at $22,347.

Around 9 cents,  it might actually look worse than it is if you split the current reward to the hashrate as it's a really bad time for blocks, the daily reward dropped like a stone from just around 30 million to 18 million in $ terms.

Anyhow, one of the worse Mondays ever, hopefully, the hashrate goes down this and next period by at least 10%, maybe a real drop in gear prices as I don't have a clue who will decide to buy now, excluding the ones that have made plans for years in advance and are so deep in this they can't help anymore and maybe a quick rebounce in price, but this one I doubt it.

Latest Block:   740671  (14 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.3215%  (800 / 797.44 expected, 2.56 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.3743% and +0.5896%

The above is probably misleading, last 24h we had 130 blocks, full 10% off.
Anyhow, again..... shit! 

[alh]

Most recent BTC price from Coinbase: $20,253. I wonder if we have hit the "bottom" or more significant declines remain yet.

[Coinfarm ventures]

Most recent BTC price from Coinbase: $20,253. I wonder if we have hit the "bottom" or more significant declines remain yet.

I won't be surprised if we go as low as $8k, if the U.S. has a recession, the stock market crashes to -50% YoY and the Feds raise the interest rate to 5%. They are trying to create a recession on purpose. These morons are destroying demand instead of increasing supply. They are blocking new oil wells from being drilled and turning to Venezuela/Iran for oil. With such dummkopfs in charge, the chaos may lead to the collateral damage of BTC falling below 10k.

[alh]

I appreciate your estimations of BTC price futures.

While I don't agree with you analysis of the US outlook, this forum is NOT the place to debate US fiscal or monetary policy.

[philipma1957]

my thought on usa politics are as follows :

the left is the right and the right is the left.

much like wrestling the good guy and the bad guy are one in the same putting on a show to take your money.

I no longer care about politics. As I know both are simply out to take my money.

The fed will raise rates again. In july.

btw btc was created when the 2008 markets crashed as a way to create value.  btc has a real enemy good interest rates are very harmful to btc.

so the next year btc will be down dca and get cheap coins for next rally.


once again usa politics are a show.

think good cop bad cop.

[Coinfarm ventures]

I appreciate your estimations of BTC price futures.

While I don't agree with you analysis of the US outlook, this forum is NOT the place to debate US fiscal or monetary policy.

I apologize for getting off topic. I got too conspiratorial. I forgot I was in the 'mining' board.

btc has a real enemy good interest rates are very harmful to btc.

so the next year btc will be down dca and get cheap coins for next rally.

I completely agree. Investors, at least in the West, seem to be de-risking themselves now that the cost of capital is higher. First to go is Bitcoin. The real question though is will it be cheaper to mine Bitcoin in 2023 than to buy it?

[NotATether]

One thing I'm trying to think it's true is that no matter how much those big guys have ordered in advance from Bitmain and Canaan the May-June deliveries are going to make much difference, probably higher rates are putting others out of mining as well as gears breaking down are negating the effects of everything new delivered. I just hope I'm not proven wrong in a week and we see a spike of some 10% up cause it will really make me believe even the hashrate game is rigged.

Could it be that all these advance orders are raising the retail price of the miners, and the small guys' being priced out - that is, not being able to afford as much miners as they need - is being reflected in these steady difficulty drops?

[philipma1957]

   https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator.


Latest Block:   741369  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.5421%  (1498 / 1520.16 expected, 22.16 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   29897409688833.63                            
Current Difficulty:   30283293547736.68                            
Next Difficulty:   between 29883573291861 and 29909637387597
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.3199% and -1.2339%
Previous Retarget:   June 8, 2022 at 6:46 AM  (+1.2907%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 11:24 AM  (in 3d 15h 16m 56s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 11:44 AM  (in 3d 15h 36m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 38m 33s and 14d 4h 58m 15s
Copy stats to clipboard

The small negative is okay .

Miners are finally feeling pain if they are at 8 cents with an s17 doin 50th and burning 2000 watts.

burn cost; 50 x 8 = $4.00 USD

earnings. 50 x 0.081 = $4.05 USD

profit of 5 cents

that = pain.

they can do under clock to 40th and 1400 watts

40 x 0.081 = $3.24 earned

34 x 0.08 = $ 2.72 burned

profit of    52 cents

so for the 8 cent miner a paid off under clock s17 squeeze out 50 cent.

now think about an s19 not paid off the guy switched out in Jan and owes money on that s19

yeah maybe 100th at 3400 watts

so earned 100 x 0.081 $8.10
burned 85 watts x 0.08 = $6.80
profit of $1.70 but he switched in Jan and still owes 5k o the unit 2941 day to pay it off.

If diff does not collapse like 2018 there will be a lot of mines closing soon.

Just stay in the sub 20k better yet sub 19k zone.

I still feel bottom range is 15-17k

my partner buysolar thinks 13k

I have buys set for 16.9k and 15.9k