2022 Diff thread.

[alh]

As we move towards the end of this epoch:

Latest Block:   743630  (16 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.2073%  (1743 / 1722.21 expected, 20.79 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   30283293547736.68                           
Current Difficulty:   29570168636357.99                           
Next Difficulty:   between 29928181949011 and 29934952220096
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.2107% and +1.2336%
Previous Retarget:   June 22, 2022 at 2:13 PM  (-2.3548%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 10:13 AM  (in 1d 20h 57m 26s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 10:17 AM  (in 1d 21h 1m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 19h 59m 31s and 13d 20h 3m 55s

BTC prices hasn't held $20K, and has be wandering around $19,xxx for a few days now. While not a big projected increase, the margins must be getting pretty thin for folks these days. Nobody is "making big money" these days, even with really cheap power (IMHO).

[1714104004]

1714104004

[1714104004]

1714104004

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   743734  (13 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.6505%  (1847 / 1853.48 expected, 6.48 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   30283293547736.68                            
Current Difficulty:   29570168636357.99                            
Next Difficulty:   between 29473953943022 and 29474627893962
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.3254% and -0.3231%
Previous Retarget:   June 22, 2022 at 3:13 PM  (-2.3548%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 4:23 PM  (in 1d 4h 15m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 4:24 PM  (in 1d 4h 15m 55s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 10m 12s and 14d 1h 10m 42s

...

Slid into negative territory.

and further in the neg.

Latest Block:   743846  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.6836%  (1959 / 1985.13 expected, 26.13 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   30283293547736.68                            
Current Difficulty:   29570168636357.99                            
Next Difficulty:   between 29187507304313 and 29187809251462
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.2941% and -1.2931%
Previous Retarget:   June 22, 2022 at 3:13 PM  (-2.3548%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 7:42 PM  (in 0d 9h 37m 23s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 7:42 PM  (in 0d 9h 37m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 28m 42s and 14d 4h 28m 55s

I wonder if this means some big mines are not taking on gear.

If I ordered 10,000 s19pros (I wish). I might back off on the order.

Or it is simply summer heat I downclocked all my gear last week maybe some are doing that.

57 blocks to go. maybe we do -2%



______________________________________
__________________________________________

Latest Block:   743900  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.5581%  (2013 / 2042.45 expected, 29.45 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   30283293547736.68                           
Current Difficulty:   29570168636357.99                           
Next Difficulty:   between 29150209308519 and 29150210225281
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.4202% and -1.4202%
Previous Retarget:   June 22, 2022 at 3:13 PM  (-2.3548%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 8:08 PM  (in 0d 0h 30m 26s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 8:08 PM  (in 0d 0h 30m 26s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 54m 55s and 14d 4h 54m 55s

almost there

[stompix]

Was just talking about hash rate in another topic when I realized, shouldn't the previous period have ended by now?

Good news:

Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 3:06 AM  (-1.4115%)

Good news:

Current price $21,349

Pikachu face:

Current Pace:   107.9668%  (248 / 229.70 expected, 18.3 ahead)
 Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.8863% and +8.7169%

Well, just a day and a half, maybe the luck that pushed the diff down in the last days is having a charge of heart and more blocks are coming now.

Mare is ready to put 3 more exahash online:

In Texas, despite multiple assurances that energization would occur in June, Compute North’s energy provider is still awaiting federal agency confirmation of its exempt status for tax purposes based upon its arrangements with Compute North. In the meantime, installations of our miners have been progressing on schedule. We now have 29,640 miners, representing approximately 2.9 exahashes per second, installed and ready for energization in Texas.

Riot too has miners not yet deployed:

The transition will consist of both a relocation of miners to the Company’s Whinstone Facility and by way of a miner swap agreement which Riot has entered into with another Bitcoin mining counterparty. This initiative is underway and approximately 5,700 miners are currently offline, and temporarily not counted in the deployed fleet figure, as they are in the process of being redeployed. It is expected that the Company will ship the balance of its S19 miner fleet presently at Coinmint to Riot’s Whinstone Facility in July.

So unless somebody somewhere else cracks under the pressure of electricity prices, we're going to get back up, even if it's minimal gains.
Btw:

Btw 35°-36° for three days

How cute  , I only see these temps late at night, the past week has been 35-48c

I wonder how does 25° at 4 PM right now sound for somebody who lives in Melting Bones, Volcania?   

[mikeywith]

So unless somebody somewhere else cracks under the pressure of electricity prices

That "somebody" has to be a large U.S miner for us to see any real drop in difficulty, fortunately, or unfortunately those don't seem to be affected much by prices, also, due to reduced demand on oil and gas as well as the plans of some "green counties" to just start burning coal the price of oil and gas has dropped and will likely stay low or head lower as more factories close down all over the globe.

So when most traditional businesses use less electricity, there will be a lot of it left for large miners, it will be very unlikely for large miners to drop out of business, so for anyone planning to buy miners, please don't count on any difficulty decrease as that could very likely be just wishful thinking.

I wonder how does 25° at 4 PM right now sound for somebody who lives in Melting Bones, Volcania?   

25c at 4PM sounds about perfect given we are in the middle of July, just by chance, it's almost 4AM now, and it's exactly 25c, 12 hours from now, i would expect at least an extra 10 degrees.

[Coinfarm ventures]

25c at 4PM sounds about perfect given we are in the middle of July, just by chance, it's almost 4AM now, and it's exactly 25c, 12 hours from now, i would expect at least an extra 10 degrees.

Temperatures were as high as 41°C for Riot Whinstone this week. Lol, I have no idea how they can keep operating even with their evaporative water wall. They probably shut down during peak heat anyway because electricity prices tend to be very expensive (>30¢/kWh)

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

...


Latest Block:   744296  (27 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   99.5340%  (393 / 394.84 expected, 1.84 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   29570168636357.99                           
Current Difficulty:   29152798808271.88                           
Next Difficulty:   between 29133892542916 and 29146143289984
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.0649% and -0.0228%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 8:06 PM  (-1.4115%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   July 20, 2022 at 8:39 PM  (in 11d 6h 44m 48s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 20, 2022 at 9:41 PM  (in 11d 7h 45m 59s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 33m 12s and 14d 1h 34m 23s

...

Slipped back to negative.

These small losses in diff are encouraging to me (in my not so humble opinion    )

The diff increase pattern from Jan 1 2022 to July 9 2022  Is quite different then the 2018 diff pattern from Jan 1 to July 9

we may be in a different kind of bear market then 2018. Hopeful, but not really sure what is coming up next.

[mikeywith]

Slipped back to negative.

Not for too long

Latest Block:   744496  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   102.9694%  (593 / 575.90 expected, 17.1 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   29570168636357.99                           
Current Difficulty:   29152798808271.88                           

Temperatures were as high as 41°C for Riot Whinstone this week. Lol, I have no idea how they can keep operating even with their evaporative water wall.

I mine at higher temps without any problems as mentioned in one of my previous posts, it's all about moving enough air, of course, some gears that have bad fans or bad contact between the chip and heatsink will have a hard time running stable at stock speed and will need downclocking, the good gears will mine just fine at those temps.

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator...


Latest Block:   744786  (23 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.3455%  (883 / 888.82 expected, 5.82 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   29570168636357.99                           
Current Difficulty:   29152798808271.88                           
Next Difficulty:   between 29013736647588 and 29057515660193
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.4770% and -0.3268%
Previous Retarget:   July 6, 2022 at 8:06 PM  (-1.4115%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   July 20, 2022 at 9:37 PM  (in 7d 21h 22m 41s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 20, 2022 at 10:19 PM  (in 7d 22h 4m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 30m 51s and 14d 2h 12m 48s

...

Negative as price has dropped.

This slump is still not tracking like the 2018 slump. which was a almost constant rise in difficulty from Jan 1 to Oct 10.

I suppose it could be the fact the 2017/2018 tops were really way up as compared to the 2 tops in 2022. Or this is a new stage in growth and much slower and more deliberate.

[mikeywith]

Current Pace:   99.3455%  (883 / 888.82 expected, 5.82 behind)

A lot has changed in the past 300-400 blocks, the current numbers are:

Current Pace:   95.6860%  (1237 / 1292.77 expected, 55.77 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   29570168636357.99                   

         


We know a good part (if not most) of this is due to power issues caused by the heatwaves in Texas, but this isn't sustainable, I think of this like the rainy season in China back then when miners had to shut down for a while when water levels go below a certain level, but it's only a matter of time to bring them back up, the only difference is that the Chinese back then moved their miners to different locations, as for now and with the size of the operations in Texas, they will not have a choice but to wait for the weather to cool down.

[philipma1957]

Current Pace:   99.3455%  (883 / 888.82 expected, 5.82 behind)

A lot has changed in the past 300-400 blocks, the current numbers are:

Current Pace:   95.6860%  (1237 / 1292.77 expected, 55.77 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   29570168636357.99                   

         


We know a good part (if not most) of this is due to power issues caused by the heatwaves in Texas, but this isn't sustainable, I think of this like the rainy season in China back then when miners had to shut down for a while when water levels go below a certain level, but it's only a matter of time to bring them back up, the only difference is that the Chinese back then moved their miners to different locations, as for now and with the size of the operations in Texas, they will not have a choice but to wait for the weather to cool down.

If most of it is Texas based the heat wave can last till early september.

so 15+31+4= 50 days

would be a welcome break for us miners.

[philipma1957]

Current Pace:   99.3455%  (883 / 888.82 expected, 5.82 behind)

A lot has changed in the past 300-400 blocks, the current numbers are:

Current Pace:   95.6860%  (1237 / 1292.77 expected, 55.77 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   29570168636357.99                   

         


We know a good part (if not most) of this is due to power issues caused by the heatwaves in Texas, but this isn't sustainable, I think of this like the rainy season in China back then when miners had to shut down for a while when water levels go below a certain level, but it's only a matter of time to bring them back up, the only difference is that the Chinese back then moved their miners to different locations, as for now and with the size of the operations in Texas, they will not have a choice but to wait for the weather to cool down.

If most of it is Texas based the heat wave can last till early september.

so 15+31+4= 50 days

would be a welcome break for us miners.

well we are not down as much as I would like.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   745504  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.8105%  (1601 / 1671.01 expected, 70.01 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   29570168636357.99                           
Current Difficulty:   29152798808271.88                           
Next Difficulty:   between 27957964076523 and 28006605154298
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.0985% and -3.9317%
Previous Retarget:   July 6, 2022 at 8:06 PM  (-1.4115%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 10:10 AM  (in 2d 23h 34m 6s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 10:48 AM  (in 3d 0h 11m 27s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 14h 4m 10s and 14d 14h 41m 31s

we dropped from 55 to 70 behind

we made 364 blocks should have done 379 blocks

that is just about 96% or -4% over last 2 ¾ days but price rallied a bit.

say +10%

this makes me think there are 2 factors.

Texas heat cut back still turning off miners.

and 19.5k vs 22.2k turns miners on.

Funny how we are just on the edge of a true mining bear market.

[wndsnb]

Still lots of profitable gear out there. S17pros on LPM, or some S17s with aftermarket firmware, are pretty close to S19pro in terms of profitability per TH. M30S is still doing OK too.

Texas power shortage is going to be just a temporary blip, that'll recover quickly. It does point out that the risk of mining in Texas is growing as they shut down reliable power sources in favor of wind and solar. I wonder how much $ those farms in Texas are getting for shutting down. I've heard of farms getting paid the current rate to take power offline. When things get close to overload that rate can be really high.

Farms shutting down because of power price hikes will still just be temporary blips... that gear is just going to wind up running at a different site.

I think price would need dip below 13k before we'd see a real sustained dump in diff.



Gear prices are still at 24 month ROI levels. I haven't noticed much movement in price in the last week or so, guess someone must be buying.

[mikeywith]

Farms shutting down because of power price hikes will still just be temporary blips... that gear is just going to wind up running at a different site.

I agree, in fact, not even on different sites might be needed, I think oil/gas prices will come crashing in a few months, you can't have a bad economy and high oil/gas prices, where will the demand come from? if there is enough demand to keep driving power prices up then there will be enough money to keep moving assets' value higher, given that Russia has only reduced its production by 25% it seems like the high prices are mainly due to the western sanctions which force them to buy Russian oil at a higher price from the 3rd party like India, but eventually, demand will slow down and prices should fall which gives more room for many miners to keep on mining for a good while.

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

Farms shutting down because of power price hikes will still just be temporary blips... that gear is just going to wind up running at a different site.

I agree, in fact, not even on different sites might be needed, I think oil/gas prices will come crashing in a few months, you can't have a bad economy and high oil/gas prices, where will the demand come from? if there is enough demand to keep driving power prices up then there will be enough money to keep moving assets' value higher, given that Russia has only reduced its production by 25% it seems like the high prices are mainly due to the western sanctions which force them to buy Russian oil at a higher price from the 3rd party like India, but eventually, demand will slow down and prices should fall which gives more room for many miners to keep on mining for a good while.

Maybe.

with my heat issues I am lowering my gear and trying to not over heat.

we put in a nice large vent and an evaporator cooler. So far we are hanging in there at about 102f at the exhaust vent. and 91 at the evaporator.

I am philipma1957's alt and I am going to merge post above and delete it

 as I do not want to reply to myself.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   745650  (31 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.3907%  (1747 / 1831.42 expected, 84.42 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   29570168636357.99                            
Current Difficulty:   29152798808271.88                            
Next Difficulty:   between 27833147298331 and 27855597227869
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.5267% and -4.4497%
Previous Retarget:   July 6, 2022 at 8:06 PM  (-1.4115%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 12:03 PM  (in 1d 22h 42m 38s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 12:20 PM  (in 1d 22h 59m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 15h 56m 47s and 14d 16h 14m 8s

we went from 70 to 84 down.

we made 146 and should have made 160


so 146/160 = 91.25% over last measurement.  since price is better or stable I am liking the 91.25% maybe more heat shut downs

maybe we go to -6% when the jump ends and price is 23k

[stompix]

The adjustment will be tomorrow and the numbers look pretty good

The price has just crossed 24k, and the difficulty:

Latest Block:   745765  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   94.9311%  (1862 / 1961.42 expected, 99.42 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.9921% and -4.9644%
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 8:56 PM  (in 1d 2h 55m 56s)

We're looking at a 20% price increase from the start of the month and an incoming -5% adjustment after the previous -1.4%.
From the lowest point at 7cents per Th/s, we're slightly above 10 cents, this is a huge recovery,  a lot of employees in mining companies are probably also reducing their time spent on LinkedIn searching for a new job   
Crisis averted, for now!

[philipma1957]

The adjustment will be tomorrow and the numbers look pretty good

The price has just crossed 24k, and the difficulty:

Latest Block:   745765  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   94.9311%  (1862 / 1961.42 expected, 99.42 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.9921% and -4.9644%
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 8:56 PM  (in 1d 2h 55m 56s)

We're looking at a 20% price increase from the start of the month and an incoming -5% adjustment after the previous -1.4%.
From the lowest point at 7cents per Th/s, we're slightly above 10 cents, this is a huge recovery,  a lot of employees in mining companies are probably also reducing their time spent on LinkedIn searching for a new job   
Crisis averted, for now!

come on Texas keep the heat wave coming.

Yeah baby

[mikeywith]

this is a huge recovery

See the irony, we are now happy with 23k btc and 2.7T difficulty  .


Anyway, the pace has slowed, even more, we should adjust to the next epoch in 2 hours at most, we will go back to Feb - March levels, sadly the price at that time 2x the current price.

                       

Latest Block:   745909  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   94.8601%  (2006 / 2114.69 expected, 108.69 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   29570168636357.99                           
Current Difficulty:   29152798808271.88                           
Next Difficulty:   between 27675104165477 and 27675138680900
Next Difficulty Change:   between -5.0688% and -5.0687%
Previous Retarget:   July 7, 2022 at 2:06 AM  (-1.4115%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 8:19 PM  (in 0d 1h 45m 23s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 8:19 PM  (in 0d 1h 45m 25s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 18h 12m 19s and 14d 18h 12m 21s

[philipma1957]

well we are not following the 2018 difficulty runup pattern.

If we were the diff would be over 4t maybe 5t.

So that is one thing to like

time will tell how we handle the next four jumps.

if texas is truly cutting back we should have four good jumps up and coming.

maybe we will ne under 2.5 t by sept 10.

[alh]

I just had to post this one because it is so close to the end of the epoch:

Latest Block:   745918  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   94.8960%  (2015 / 2123.38 expected, 108.38 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   29570168636357.99                           
Current Difficulty:   29152798808271.88                           
Next Difficulty:   between 27685492201172 and 27685492544028
Next Difficulty Change:   between -5.0332% and -5.0332%
Previous Retarget:   July 6, 2022 at 7:06 PM  (-1.4115%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 1:11 PM  (in 0d 0h 10m 32s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 1:11 PM  (in 0d 0h 10m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 18h 4m 19s and 14d 18h 4m 19s

BTC price: $22,839.

[stompix]

this is a huge recovery

See the irony, we are now happy with 23k btc and 2.7T difficulty  .

Yeah, and after touching 10k will be happy with 15k and only 3T difficulty, you need to keep your optimism up!

I was just reading on another topic about a weird way of making up bullish claims and if we would apply that here, from 30 cents per Th/s, we went down 75% to 7.5 cents, now we're up 50% to 10.5 cents. You see, down 75% up 50%, not that big of a deal! One, two, three does of hopium and even math stops make sense but you start feeling better 

Anyway, the pace has slowed, even more, we should adjust to the next epoch in 2 hours at most, we will go back to Feb - March levels, sadly the price at that time 2x the current price.

It might go down further, in the last 7 days the average block time per day was only once below 100 mins at 9.73 and for times over 11 minutes, with one day clocking 13, so let's see what Texas has to say about it. There is also a new heat wave hitting Europe tomorrow morning till Sunday so I'll be experiencing a delicious heartwarming 38C,, but with the amount of hashrate in Europe, this will not change the block time by one second.

well we are not following the 2018 difficulty runup pattern.

No more tens of MW of cheap or nearly free electricity in China, increasing prices everywhere, expensive gear, the pattern is definitely broken so probably 300Exa will not happen this year at all.