2022 Diff thread.

[philipma1957]

yeah so glad we have the 280kwatt solar array under construction.

Late august early sept it will be running.

we have cheap power and lots of it.

biggest issue is cooling.

100 yesterday
  99 today
101 tomorrow
 i think all plus 96 til tues then an 89

I will try posting a few youtube videos. of both rooms.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Query: What is the power limit for what you can supply back to the grid in NJ before you have to go through the state PU commission for permitting as a regulated Grid Power Generation site?

In Michigan it is anything from 500kw on up no matter what the source is be it solar/wind/hydro/waste gas/ et al.

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

Not sure what happened. will clean this up.

Query: What is the power limit for what you can supply back to the grid in NJ before you have to go through the state PU commission for permitting as a regulated Grid Power Generation site?

In Michigan it is anything from 500kw on up.

don't know.  I will ask buysolar he is on va-kay in Maine.  Give me a week or so.

I do know he is trying to create a massive battery deal with the local power company.

They roll in a huge battery that acts as an ups for the grid. This would mean more income for the owner of the warehouse.

The excess day daylight power goes into the battery and we are near the data center that runs Nasdaq.

So we would be the ups for Nasdaq.

Since we figure to burn 65-70kwatts  of the 280 hourly kwatts we would store the excess in the huge battery/ups backup that protects nasdaq.

So we are kind of hoping to get that deal as an extra bonus.


below is kind of on topic as cooling rooms down in outdoor 100f temps  = hard



I just posted 2 videos of one of the 2 rooms we mine in :


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5144362.msg60608013#msg60608013

the room is getting more cooling as we are having quite a heat wave.

we use this vent

https://roofvents.com/gravity-roof-ventilators-aura-ventilator-curb-mount-flange/av-24-c12-cmf-aura-vent-24-inch-diameter-12-inch-collar-curb-mount-flange-2/

and these turbines
https://www.lowes.com/pd/Master-Flow-12-in-Aluminum-Internally-Braced-Roof-Turbine-Vent/999972266


and this swamp cooler
https://www.sylvane.com/hessaire-mc92v-evaporative-air-cooler.html


we have this room dialed in well for cooling now.

it was 98 in Clifton NJ today

our input numbers were 82.9 to 88.6f
our output number were 95.8 to 103f

this gpu/asic room burns 50kwatts or  170,000 btu

room is 1200 square feet maybe 18000 cubic feet as ceiling is about 15 ft

so 24 x 50 x 15 = 18000

that is 170,000 btu per hour on a 100 f outdoor temp day.

[mikeywith]

Latest Block:   746402  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.2215%  (483 / 477.17 expected, 5.83 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   29152798808271.88                           
Current Difficulty:   27692567959233.59                           
Next Difficulty:   between 27856244615694 and 28083812387574
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5910% and +1.4128%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 8:05 PM  (-5.0089%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 4, 2022 at 4:02 PM  (in 10d 12h 24m 59s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 4, 2022 at 6:23 PM  (in 10d 14h 45m 40s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 19h 56m 42s and 13d 22h 17m 23s

The pace has picked up real fast, I think it was at about 95% for the first 100-150 blocks, so it's likely that we keep climbing higher, is the heat wave in texas over or have they managed to increase their power supply and allowed miners to turn back on? I hope the -5% we had won't be very short-lived.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   746475  (27 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.4846%  (556 / 553.32 expected, 2.68 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   29152798808271.88                           
Current Difficulty:   27692567959233.59                           
Next Difficulty:   between 27777647467906 and 27872093231298
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.3072% and +0.6483%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 2:05 PM  (-5.0089%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 4, 2022 at 12:28 PM  (in 10d 2h 9m 35s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 4, 2022 at 1:19 PM  (in 10d 3h 0m 34s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 22m 46s and 13d 23h 13m 46s
Copy stats to clipboard

[mikeywith]

Current Pace:   100.4846%  (556 / 553.32 expected, 2.68 ahead)

That was a temporary slow down which only lasted for a day or two, here is the current status

Current Pace:   103.3955%  (1194 / 1154.79 expected, 39.21 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   29152798808271.88                           
Current Difficulty:   27692567959233.59                           
Next Difficulty:   between 28490548287723 and 28655197355569

I also noticed that gear prices went up slightly in the past couple of days, it seems like many people are actually buying unlike what most of us think, the current ROI on gear is just way too long at least in terms of BTC, if I want to spend cash and had the options to buy gear at current prices or simply just buy BTC I sure as hell won't buy 2 years ROI gears, but many they think the difficulty will drop somehow which doesn't seem to happen, the price crashed and yet the difficulty keeps going up despite everything.

[stompix]

Growth slowing down:

Latest Block:   747267  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.9082%  (1348 / 1322.76 expected, 25.24 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.7567% and +1.9776%

4 days left so at this point it would be impossible to recover the 5% drop from last time.

I also noticed that gear prices went up slightly in the past couple of days, it seems like many people are actually buying unlike what most of us think, the current ROI on gear is just way too long at least in terms of BTC

I just saw this from Bitmain:
https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020220711184847228qGon7r0z06E3

Bitcoin Miner S19 Hydro  158T 5451W 34.5J/T
Price: $3,792
Price/T $24
Shipping Date: 1-31,Oct. 2022

But, MOQ of 188, and I have no idea why the 188. I initially though that this would be the capacity of an ANTSPACE HK3 but it's not, it lists 210 miners.

[philipma1957]

Growth slowing down:

Latest Block:   747267  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.9082%  (1348 / 1322.76 expected, 25.24 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.7567% and +1.9776%

4 days left so at this point it would be impossible to recover the 5% drop from last time.

I also noticed that gear prices went up slightly in the past couple of days, it seems like many people are actually buying unlike what most of us think, the current ROI on gear is just way too long at least in terms of BTC

I just saw this from Bitmain:
https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020220711184847228qGon7r0z06E3

Bitcoin Miner S19 Hydro  158T 5451W 34.5J/T
Price: $3,792
Price/T $24
Shipping Date: 1-31,Oct. 2022

But, MOQ of 188, and I have no idea why the 188. I initially though that this would be the capacity of an ANTSPACE HK3 but it's not, it lists 210 miners.

. 188 x 5451 = 1.021 megawatts.

the $110,000 box only provides 1.030 megawatts.

they used to ask you to buy 210 xp units which pull less power.

my guess is the box can only do 170 units not 188 based on its 1.03 megawatt rating.

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   747466  (9 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   101.5118%  (1547 / 1523.96 expected, 23.04 ahead)


Previous Difficulty:   29152798808271.88                           
Current Difficulty:   27692567959233.59                           
Next Difficulty:   between 28103924060042 and 28127830776559
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.4854% and +1.5718%
Previous Retarget:   July 21, 2022 at 2:05 PM  (-5.0089%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 9:05 AM  (in 3d 5h 0m 9s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 9:21 AM  (in 3d 5h 16m 24s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 18h 59m 45s and 13d 19h 16m 0s

+1.5%

small shot to go negative with only 23 blocks ahead of the pace and 469 to go

[mikeywith]

I just saw this from Bitmain:
https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020220711184847228qGon7r0z06E3

Bitcoin Miner S19 Hydro  158T 5451W 34.5J/T
Price: $3,792
Price/T $24
Shipping Date: 1-31,Oct. 2022

True, but those are Hydro and future orders, I was talking about spot prices, they have generally gone up in the past couple of days, even the used ones, by the way, the Hydro requires 3-phase power and has to be installed in Bitmain's own container.

S19 XP spot price is 8.3k in Malaysia which is good for U.S miners (no China tax), the Sep future orders for the same gear are about 1k lower, on the other hand, S19j sells for nearly half the price per TH, not sure why would anyone pay almost double for 21w/th vs 29w/th is it even worth it? your power rate needs to be so high for that to make sense.

[stompix]

True, but those are Hydro and future orders, I was talking about spot prices, they have generally gone up in the past couple of days, even the used ones, by the way, the Hydro requires 3-phase power and has to be installed in Bitmain's own container.

Yeah, I know but I was just thinking, maybe if Bitmain is cutting prices to industrial-size clients it might hint at a lack of customers there,  and I really don't get the XP prices either...

Running through some numbers,at 2/5/10 cents
The XP 140T gets you 13/11/7$ a day
The S19 95T gets you 8/6/2$ a day.

Assuming your price of 8.3K and of the other one Bitmain standard of 4k, at 5cents/kwh you get 754 days of ROI for the XP vs 666  days.   Adding 45 days in which the S19 XP has to catch up with the other one it means it will take the lead and be more productive only after two years and two months! Of course, it gets better and better the more expensive your energy is, at 10cents per kWh it is no competition, but if you have even cheaper energy then it kind of makes no sense...
With the 19pro, the competition is even tighter if you manage to get it at 5k.

Latest Block:   747737  (13 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.1586%  (1818 / 1779.59 expected, 38.41 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.1885% and +2.2102%
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 1:59 PM  (in 1d 8h 18m 9s)

So it'll be under 3%, one day left it will be a period of extreme luck, and manage to get another 20 extra blocks just now, eh..

See the irony, we are now happy with 23k btc and 2.7T difficulty  .

Yeah, it was way better than 28T and B at 22700 

[philipma1957]

well I still like to look at the following  diff charts

 jan 2018 to august 2018 vs jan 2022 to august 2022

the ratios of increased diff are far different. from each other.

about 1.1 to 1 this cycle as  27.69/24.27 is  1.14 to one

vs 3 to one 2018 cycle  5.94/1.87 is 3.17 to one

here's hoping this is a future indicator of stability for BTC

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator



Latest Block:   747941  (36 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   75.1969%  (6 / 7.98 expected, 1.98 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   27692567959233.59                           
Current Difficulty:   28174668481289.41                           
Next Difficulty:   between 28189075687245 and 30825386258712
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0511% and +9.4082%

Previous Retarget:   Today at 8:29 AM  (+1.7409%)

Next Retarget (earliest):   August 18, 2022 at 9:09 AM  (in 13d 23h 19m 43s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 22, 2022 at 11:19 PM  (in 18d 13h 29m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 39m 31s and 18d 14h 49m 36s

Copy stats to clipboard

and we did a +1.7%

[philipma1957]

...

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   748399  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   107.0409%  (464 / 433.48 expected, 30.52 ahead)


Previous Difficulty:   27692567959233.59                            

Current Difficulty:   28174668481289.41                            

Next Difficulty:   between 29015675448251 and 30333012574624
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.9850% and +7.6606%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 8:29 AM  (+1.7409%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 17, 2022 at 10:23 AM  (in 10d 1h 39m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 17, 2022 at 11:29 PM  (in 10d 14h 45m 2s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 1h 53m 55s and 13d 14h 59m 49s


...

Strong increase so far.

we backed off nicely and look good with only 180 blocks left


Latest Block:   749772  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.3201%  (1837 / 1813.07 expected, 23.93 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   27692567959233.59                            
Current Difficulty:   28174668481289.41                            
Next Difficulty:   between 28582640454716 and 28585929623924
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.4480% and +1.4597%
Previous Retarget:   August 4, 2022 at 8:29 AM  (+1.7409%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 4:07 AM  (in 1d 5h 26m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 4:09 AM  (in 1d 5h 28m 44s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 19h 37m 20s and 13d 19h 39m 24s
Copy stats to clipboard







Dropped even closer to 0%




Latest Block:   749906  (a minute ago)
Current Pace:   100.4008%  (1971 / 1963.13 expected, 7.87 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   27692567959233.59                           
Current Difficulty:   28174668481289.41                           
Next Difficulty:   between 28323521298717 and 28323595893258
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5283% and +0.5286%
Previous Retarget:   August 4, 2022 at 8:29 AM  (+1.7409%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 7:09 AM  (in 0d 7h 28m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 7:09 AM  (in 0d 7h 28m 14s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 39m 31s and 13d 22h 39m 33s




maybe we get to 0% or -0.1%. at worst maybe we go up to +1%

Sideways action again.

let us see the next jump

[mikeywith]

China has some shrinking rivers, and water levels are pretty low, some power cuts are happening, and we know there is still some mining going on there, so that could slow down the difficulty, EU zone is having a hard time getting gas and oil, energy prices are sky high, Kosovo had some power cuts recently, all of that could also help a bit with difficulty although I don't think there EU has any considerable hashrate to let go of.

So that's all short-term, so long-term? let's look at the other side of the planet:

The U.S? not much action going on regarding energy,  also, the Chinese are slowing down on production, and thus, their oil/gas demand will drop, I think that will bring energy prices in the U.S to very low levels, and large U.S miners will continue to have access to cheap power and they will keep on adding gears

Unless something major happens, like China invades Taiwan and TSMC shuts down, I don't see difficulty stopping.

[alh]

Right now it's trending towards a small increase in difficulty.

Latest Block:   749937  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.4913%  (2002 / 1992.21 expected, 9.79 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   27692567959233.59                           
Current Difficulty:   28174668481289.41                           
Next Difficulty:   between 28348590116332 and 28348598555942
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.6173% and +0.6173%
Previous Retarget:   August 4, 2022 at 7:29 AM  (+1.7409%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 5:51 AM  (in 0d 2h 19m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 5:51 AM  (in 0d 2h 19m 19s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 21m 26s and 13d 22h 21m 26s

Price is currently $23,373 so it isn't pushing miners to accelerate.

[stompix]

And as multiple times before, you can't have your cake and eat it too, the difficulty is up only +0.6280% but the price is down on 7 days period -11.4%, income per TH/s sliding again, I think it hit below 9 cents. It kind of stops being only about eating the cake and more like getting an overpriced cake that is moldy and getting a beating because you didn't tip enough.

China has some shrinking rivers, and water levels are pretty low, some power cuts are happening, and we know there is still some mining going on there, so that could slow down the difficulty, EU zone is having a hard time getting gas and oil, energy prices are sky high, Kosovo had some power cuts recently, all of that could also help a bit with difficulty although I don't think there EU has any considerable hashrate to let go of.

I doubt that there is any major miner operation in mainland Europe still mining that doesn't have its own power generation and at this point, it's a bit hard for me to understand why should somebody burn energy to get a measly share in revenue where they could simply sell that energy on the market and get rid of a lot of troubles.
Assuming the XP at these rates, if you miraculously generate power at 5 cents you will make as much in profit as selling that power for 13cents on the grid, so, seriously you would earn a ton more by charging electric cars.

[DaveF]

And as multiple times before, you can't have your cake and eat it too, the difficulty is up only +0.6280% but the price is down on 7 days period -11.4%, income per TH/s sliding again, I think it hit below 9 cents. It kind of stops being only about eating the cake and more like getting an overpriced cake that is moldy and getting a beating because you didn't tip enough.

China has some shrinking rivers, and water levels are pretty low, some power cuts are happening, and we know there is still some mining going on there, so that could slow down the difficulty, EU zone is having a hard time getting gas and oil, energy prices are sky high, Kosovo had some power cuts recently, all of that could also help a bit with difficulty although I don't think there EU has any considerable hashrate to let go of.

I doubt that there is any major miner operation in mainland Europe still mining that doesn't have its own power generation and at this point, it's a bit hard for me to understand why should somebody burn energy to get a measly share in revenue where they could simply sell that energy on the market and get rid of a lot of troubles.
Assuming the XP at these rates, if you miraculously generate power at 5 cents you will make as much in profit as selling that power for 13cents on the grid, so, seriously you would earn a ton more by charging electric cars.

I am going with speculation. I can make 8 cents today selling the power or 3 cents mining but if BTC goes back to $65000 I made 9 cents.
That and generally power has to be used when it's generated. If there is no demand for electric car charging or to do other things you can either spin down the plant for a bit or mine. So once again, the miners will always run.

Pure guesses on my part but seem reasonable.

-Dave

[stompix]

I am going with speculation. I can make 8 cents today selling the power or 3 cents mining but if BTC goes back to $65000 I made 9 cents.
That and generally power has to be used when it's generated. If there is no demand for electric car charging or to do other things you can either spin down the plant for a bit or mine. So once again, the miners will always run.

Of course, I was half serious half joking but before typing that I checked the price at the nearest charging station, 45 Eurocents/kwh, so you could afford to have the station filled just 1/4 of the time, and of course, you could just inject that into the grid with the ton of new programs that are out there for small business generating power.

But!!! Weird coincidence, the second topic I visited today pointed to this:
https://fortune.com/2022/08/16/bitcoin-mining-crypto-winter-stronghold-digital-selling-electricity/
Pastebin https://pastebin.pl/view/6c8f8162

And I swear I saw it after I posted the one above! 

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

And as multiple times before, you can't have your cake and eat it too, the difficulty is up only +0.6280% but the price is down on 7 days period -11.4%, income per TH/s sliding again, I think it hit below 9 cents. It kind of stops being only about eating the cake and more like getting an overpriced cake that is moldy and getting a beating because you didn't tip enough.

China has some shrinking rivers, and water levels are pretty low, some power cuts are happening, and we know there is still some mining going on there, so that could slow down the difficulty, EU zone is having a hard time getting gas and oil, energy prices are sky high, Kosovo had some power cuts recently, all of that could also help a bit with difficulty although I don't think there EU has any considerable hashrate to let go of.

I doubt that there is any major miner operation in mainland Europe still mining that doesn't have its own power generation and at this point, it's a bit hard for me to understand why should somebody burn energy to get a measly share in revenue where they could simply sell that energy on the market and get rid of a lot of troubles.
Assuming the XP at these rates, if you miraculously generate power at 5 cents you will make as much in profit as selling that power for 13cents on the grid, so, seriously you would earn a ton more by charging electric cars.

I am going with speculation. I can make 8 cents today selling the power or 3 cents mining but if BTC goes back to $65000 I made 9 cents.
That and generally power has to be used when it's generated. If there is no demand for electric car charging or to do other things you can either spin down the plant for a bit or mine. So once again, the miners will always run.

Pure guesses on my part but seem reasonable.

-Dave

We have developed 3 solar arrays in NJ

a   45kwatt =   7.5kwatt 24/7/365
a 115kwatt = 19.1kwatt 24/7/365
a 280kwatt = 46.6kwatt 24/7/365

they all net meter

Doing the math for these as to what power costs is next to impossible.

You could argue 17 cents is saved vs summer power cost
You could argue 10 cents is saved vs winter power cost and use of the heat
You could sell for 8 cents locally to a neighbor in the case of the 2 bigger ones. >>> NJ community power plant rules

So you can come up with 3 numbers for your kwatts spent.

There are so many programs rebates deals it is kind of countless.

The big plant in Clifton is close to Nasdaq's power source. We are trying to cut a deal to bring in a container which is a 40 foot UPS it would be charged by the solar. We would get fees to do this and it would fire up in a black out to run Nasdaq's servers. What is this value? I have zero idea. We also have a commitment to be a telsa+ev cars charging site.

So in order to decide how to value the mining vs selling the power or leasing the charger or running the Nasdaq UPS is really complex.

If I run 2kwatts 24 hours it is 50 kwatts (round up) I can do 1gh on eth and earn 1000x2.59 cents = $25.90 to burn 50 Kwatts that is 52 cents a kwatt.

that kills anything:

  8 cents for  selling to a neighbor
11.4 cents for mining btc
17 cents saved on summer rates
10 cents saved on winter rates
 

Now picture all the money due to leave the mining system when eth goes POS.

I estimate 25 million a day goes poof.
Replaced by 3 million uncollectible interest.

This will decimate the industry of mining.  Yeah it will hurt BTC,LTC,Doge and other gpu coins.


or ETC will whale like a mofo.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator...


Latest Block:   750449  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   109.3881%  (498 / 455.26 expected, 42.74 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   28174668481289.41                           
Current Difficulty:   28351606743493.77                           
Next Difficulty:   between 29496640990446 and 31143497811428
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.0387% and +9.8474%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 6:48 AM  (+0.6280%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 31, 2022 at 1:58 AM  (in 9d 15h 17m 11s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 31, 2022 at 6:19 PM  (in 10d 7h 38m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 19h 9m 47s and 13d 11h 30m 46s

It is early but this could be Texas gear going back online.



https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/tx/dallas


Temps dropped by about 10-12F  or 5-6C in Texas which may free up power.

[stompix]

I thought the previous estimation posted was too early so now way in hell could that pace be sustained, yet..

Current Pace:   108.5205%  (1119 / 1031.14 expected, 87.86 ahead)               
Next Difficulty:   between 30301036600121 and 30824198422057

We're past half of the period, and it's looking really bad, we're going to reach May levels, and although no chance (yet) to beat the 31.25T ATHit's still going to be pretty close. And of course, the price is nowhere near May levels.

Since Phil mentioned the weather in Texas, yeah, the summer is almost gone here too, it's the first week in which only one of the largest cities in my country will manage to record something around 30C, and by the end of the month, we're going to a max of 20C from 37C at the start of August.
Too bad that without cheap electricity there won't be any change for the better for whatever miners are left on this continent.